applied predictive analysis - esri · 2017-03-03 · modeling / forecasting versatility predictive...
TRANSCRIPT
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Applied Predictive AnalysisDavid Attaway, Esri
Brooks Jonathan Breece, NGA/Office of Sciences and Methodologies
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Overview
• ArcGIS Desktop Addin --- FREE
- http://www.arcgis.com/home/item.ht
ml?id=91c9fce0d3d5487fac1c71f44e7
2dca4
OR
- Contact Esri through Email
- [email protected] for
questions about
getting/installing/using tools.
• Set of tools for…
- Raster-based querying
- Mobility and proximity data creation
- Temporal analysis
Predictive Analysis Tools
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Agenda:
• What are the ArcGIS Predictive Analysis Tools (PA Tools)?
- Overview
- Functionality / Demo
• Versatility / Architecture of PA Tools
- Story map Examples
• Web Based Predictive Analysis Tools
- Overview
- Functionality / Demo
• Questions and Answers
• Closing
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ArcGIS Predictive Analysis Tools
The Predictive Analysis tools are a suite of tools to
help analysts get ahead of rather than reacting to a
problem. The tools are designed to leverage and
expand upon existing Esri out-of-the-box capabilities
and expose complex analysis workflows in an intuitive
way.
What are they?
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Capabilities
• Predict suitable locations, and travel routes
• Extremely fast to accommodate iterative analysis
• Auto-generate analysis based on historic data
• Repeatable and shareable workflows
• Easy to use
Predictive Analysis Tools
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Homeland Security
Stopping Smugglers
Environmental Management
Preservation
Law Enforcement
Fighting Drug Production
GeoDesign
Urban Planning
Landscape Architecture
Sustainability
Defense and Intel
Finding Enemy Targets
Medical Geography & Health
Susceptibility
Weather
Modeling / Forecasting
VersatilityVersatility
Predictive Analysis Tools
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Use Cases…
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• Site Selection
• Mobility Modeling
• Route Analysis
• Temporal Pattern Analysis
Predictive Analysis FrameworkWhat are we predicting?
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• Site Selection
- Where are possible sites?
- Where are similar sites?
- Why is/isn’t a site suitable?
• Mobility Modeling
• Route Analysis
• Temporal Pattern Analysis
Predictive Analysis FrameworkWhat are we predicting?
Zika VirusDengue FeverPanga Boat InterdictionCounter Drug
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• Site Selection
• Mobility Modeling
- How are the rules of movement for
an entity defined?
- Where can/can’t an entity go?
- How far away is an entity from
something? (Distance or Time)
• Route Analysis
• Temporal Pattern Analysis
Predictive Analysis FrameworkWhat are we predicting?
Drive-time AnalysisTravel Corridor Analysis
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Choke PointsRefugee Migration
• Site Selection
• Mobility Modeling
• Route Analysis
- What is the fastest route?
- How long is the route?
- Where are all possible routes?
• Temporal Pattern Analysis
Predictive Analysis FrameworkWhat are we predicting?
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• Site Selection
• Mobility Modeling
• Route Analysis
• Temporal Pattern Analysis
- Is there evidence of cyclic activities?
- Are there anomalous activities?
- Are there any temporal
relationships?
Predictive Analysis FrameworkWhat are we predicting?
Temporal Patterns
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Using Doctrine or Pattern of Life
Build Query
(Query Editor)
Analyze
Results
(SPOT Tool)
Optional: Predictive Movement Analysis
(Route Finder)
Refine
Share Analysis
Final Analysis
Map
Define Question
Prepare Data
(Geoprocessing, Speed Model
Builder)
Predictive Site Suitability
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Using Evidence to Develop Pattern of Life
Perform Statistical Analysis
(Query Generator)
Build Query
(Query Editor)
Analyze
Results
(SPOT Tool)
Optional: Predictive Movement Analysis
(Route Finder)
Refine
Share Analysis
Final Analysis
Map
Define Question
Prepare Data
(Geoprocessing, Speed Model
Builder)
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Using Doctrine or Pattern of Life
Build Query
(Query Editor)
Analyze
Results
(SPOT Tool)
Optional: Predictive Movement Analysis
(Route Finder)
Refine
Final Analysis
Map
Define Question
Prepare Data
(Geoprocessing, Speed Model
Builder)
Predictive Site Suitability
Using Evidence to Develop Pattern of Life
Perform Statistical Analysis
(QFIT)
Build Query
(Query Editor)
Analyze
Results
(SPOT Tool)
Optional: Predictive Movement Analysis
(Route Finder)
Refine
Define Question
Prepare Data
(Geoprocessing, Speed Model
Builder)
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Predicting Aedes Habitat and suitable locations for vector borne diseaseSummary
Altitude
Minimum Temperature
Population
Landcover
Maximum TemperatureAnnual Precipitation
1. Where are we likely to have mosquito
borne disease?
2. What are the most important
parameters to minimize risk?
3. Which environments are most
suitable to mosquito borne disease?
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David Attaway
Predicting Aedes Habitat
and suitable locations
for vector borne disease
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Method that draws on temperature, precipitation, elevation, land cover, and population density variables to
identify locations suitable for mosquito activity year-round.
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http://arcg.is/23MP6P2
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The Problem…
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Predicting Drug Trafficking Locations and Movements
• Where will they likely have a farm site?
• How quickly can they transport their product?
• Use doctrinal knowledge to set movement constraints
• Use past data to optimize searching for farms
• Auto-generate search criteria
• Find likely travel routes from the farms to the ocean
Demo Scenario
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Drug Grow Analysis - 2013
• Historic Locations of Marijuana Grows
• Aspect
• Land Ownership
• Roads
• Slope
• Streams and Rivers
• Trails
• Vegetation Over Story
• Vegetation Under Story
• Water Bodies
Q-FIT
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Drug Grow Analysis - 2013Final Result
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5 Lessons Learned - 2013
• Major transportation routes & major population areas
• Imagery analysis revealed clusters of grows downstream from
reservoirs
• Special agent observed several grows in an area cleared by fire
• Grows clusters appear on outer edges of the forest
• Output needs to be continuous
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Drug Grow Analysis - 2014
• Historic Locations of Marijuana Grows
• Slope
• Streams and Rivers
• Trails
• Vegetation Over Story
• Vegetation Under Story
• Water Bodies
Query Generator
• Major Highways
• Roads
• Fire History
• Artificial Streams and Rivers
• Forest Boundary
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Drug Grow Analysis - 2014Final Result
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2013 vs. 2014Final Result
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Web Solution…
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Predictive Analysis Web Tools
• What they are…
- JavaScript Widgets for the Query Editor / Query Inspector
- Compatible with ArcGIS Web App Builder
• What they do…
- Queries as fast as desktop version
- Supports large data, and live services
- Pre-defined queries for reuse and collaboration
• When they are available…
- Will be available soon via ArcGIS Online
Predictive Analysis Tools
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Predictive Analysis FrameworkWeb Tools Overview
• Query Editor
• Query Inspector
• Query Generator
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Predictive Analysis Web Application
Available soon on ArcGIS online – contact [email protected] and they will send it to you today!!!!
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Road Map…
• Now
- Version 1.3 is available on the ArcGIS online
- The Predictive Analysis Add-In is available for free to anyone here:
http://www.arcgis.com/home/item.html?id=91c9fce0d3d5487fac1c71f44e72dca4
- Previous Versions contact [email protected]
• Future / Ideas- More web capabilities
- Desktop tool automation
- Data Decay parameters
- Esri Professional Services will work with you on specific requirements…
- If you have the need for training or for any additional capabilities please contact our
Esri Professional Services team at [email protected] with your request
Predictive Analysis Tools
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Questions?
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