apresentação do powerpoint 4t19... · 2020-03-13 · 2.5 3.1 2.3 1.9 3q19 4q19 recurring net...
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1
Wet
christmas
tree
2019 Performance
—Webcast
February 20, 2020
Disclaimer—
The presentation may contain forward-lookingstatements about future events that are notbased on historical facts and are notassurances of future results. Such forward-looking statements merely reflect theCompany’s current views and estimates offuture economic circumstances, industryconditions, company performance andfinancial results. Such terms as "anticipate","believe", "expect", "forecast", "intend","plan", "project", "seek", "should", along withsimilar or analogous expressions, are used toidentify such forward-looking statements.Readers are cautioned that these statementsare only projections and may differ materiallyfrom actual future results or events. Readersare referred to the documents filed by theCompany with the SEC, specifically theCompany’s most recent Annual Report onForm 20-F, which identify important riskfactors that could cause actual results todiffer from those contained in the forward-looking statements, including, among otherthings, risks relating to general economic andbusiness conditions, including crude oil andother commodity prices, refining margins andprevailing exchange rates, uncertaintiesinherent in making estimates of our oil andgas reserves including recently discovered oiland gas reserves, international and Brazilianpolitical, economic and social developments,
receipt of governmental approvals andlicenses and our ability to obtain financing.
We undertake no obligation to publiclyupdate or revise any forward-lookingstatements, whether as a result of newinformation or future events or for any otherreason. Figures for 2020 on are estimates ortargets.
All forward-looking statements are expresslyqualified in their entirety by this cautionarystatement, and you should not place relianceon any forward-looking statement containedin this presentation.
In addition, this presentation also containscertain financial measures that are notrecognized under Brazilian GAAP or IFRS.These measures do not have standardizedmeanings and may not be comparable tosimilarly-titled measures provided by othercompanies. We are providing these measuresbecause we use them as a measure ofcompany performance; they should not beconsidered in isolation or as a substitute forother financial measures that have beendisclosed in accordance with Brazilian GAAPor IFRS.
Non-sec compliant oil and gas reserves:
cautionary statement for us investors
We present certain data in this
presentation, such as oil and gas
resources, that we are not
permitted to present in
documents filed with the United
States Securities and Exchange
Commission (SEC) under new
Subpart 1200 to Regulation S-K
because such terms do not qualify
as proved, probable or possible
reserves under Rule 4-10(a) of
Regulation S-X
2
2019 Highlights
—Implementing a transformational agenda
3
Growth of low sulphur fuel oil
production (IMO 2020)
Acquisition of Búzios and Itapu in the
Transfer of Rights Surplus Auction
Investments of US$ 27.4 billion*
Divestments of US$ 16.3 billion
in non-core assets
Production record in the pre-salt, reaching
59% of total production in Brazil
Oil production in Brazil reached 2.172
Mbpd, exceeding the target of 2.1 Mbpd
Gross debt reduction
of US$ 24 billion
Remarkable net income
and EBITDA
Upgrade in stand-alone credit profile by S&P, Moody’s and Fitch
Agreement with CADE to open the
refining and natural gas markets
*including participation in ANP auction
4
Inserir foto
Ajustar layout
TRITotal recordable injuries (M MHRS*))
Focus on safety
—Safety as top priority
2.15
1.63
1.081.01
0.76
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
» 2020-2024 top metric is TRI < 1.0
» Lowest historical level and below peer group benchmark (0.80)
Ambition of zero fatalities
* Per million man-hours
5
Financial
highlights
—
6
Operating
cash flow
US$ 25.6 bi
Dividends
US$ ~2.5 bi
Net
income
US$ 10.2 bi
Adjusted
EBITDA
US$ 32.7 bi
Free
cash flow
US$ 18.4 bi
2019 Financial performance—Focus on value generation
Brent
US$/bbl
7
Oil prices and exchange rate—Brent apreciation and depreciation of the Real
Average
exchange rate R$/US$
67.7663.20
68.82
61.94 63.25
4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19
3.81 3.773.92 3.97
4.12
4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19
Continuous focus on deleveraging
—US$ 24 billion debt reduction
US$ billion
8
79%
60%57%
46% 44%
Leverage
5.11
3.54 3.67
2.341.99
2.46
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Net Debt/ Adjusted EBITDA
with IFRS 16
without IFRS 16
Leverage Ratio*Gross Debt
126118
109
84
63
111
87
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
with IFRS 16
without IFRS 16
*Calculated in Reais
Solid EBITDA—Resilient to price environment
9
US$ billion
2019 X 2018 4T19 x 3T19
33.7 34.131.5
32.7
2018 2019
Recurring adjusted EBITDA Adjusted Ebitda
+1%
8.9 9.08.2 8.9
3Q19 4Q19
Recurring adjusted EBITDA Adjusted EBITDA
+2%
» Production costs reduction and lower contingencies » Lower production costs, Brent appreciation and price
improvement of our oil and fuel oil in relation to Brent
US$ billion
10
EBITDA by business segment—Highlighting E&P and Refining segments results
Adjusted EBITDA US$ billion
» Realization of inventories
formed at lower costs
» Improved margins on natural gas
sales offset by higher operating
expenses
» Brent price recovery and higher
production
8.18.8
3Q19 4Q19
Exploration &Production
0.9
1.6
3Q19 4Q19
Refining
0.5
0.2
3Q19 4Q19
Gas & Power
+9%-63%
+68%
11
Strong cash generation—Cash generation and divestments enabled acquisitions in bidding rounds and debt prepayment
*Includes borrowings, prepayments and goodwill on repurchase of securities
**Includes dividends received and non-controlling interests
8.97.5
5.6
-5,4 -6.5
-1.8
8.4
-3.2
-0.5-0.9
1.3
-3.5 -0.6-1.6
0.6
Pre-payments*
Cash flow in 4Q19US$ billion
EBITDA
4Q19
Judicial
deposits Others
OCF
4Q19
Invest-
ments
FCF 4Q19
Signaturebonus
Transfer of
Rights
agreement
Divest-
ments
Net
Financing Interest Leasing Others**
FCFE
4Q19
-16.7
Amortization profileUS$ bilhões
Efficient liability management—Debt extension at lower costs and reduction of minimum cash balance
12
7.43.6 4.2 4.8
8.1 8.6
35.9
9
5.9 5 3.5
2.6 2.2
13.1
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025+
Revolving creditfacilities
Cash
Note: Managerial view
9.4 9.28.3
10.7 10.8
49.0
Year 2018 2019
Average interest rate (% p.y.) 6.2 5.9
Average Maturity (years) 9.1 10.8
12
New level of minimum
cash balance at
US$ 5.5 billion
55% of debt maturity
after 2024
Loans
Leasings
(IFRS 16)
Main transactions in capital markets—Efficient liability management contributed to the continuous improvement of the company's risk perception
Pre-payments Securities
exchange offer
Receivables from
Eletrobras
Issuance
of debentures
US$ 24.9 biUS$ 3.7 bi
US$ 2.1 bi US$ 1.7 bi
Financial transactions in 2019 Risk perception improvement
513 bps
230 bps
jan-17 jan-18 jan-19 jan-20
283 bps
10-year Petrobras bond spread over Treasury (bps)
We have been awarded the Corporate Liability
Management of the Year, from Latin Finance, in
recognition of the results of two global bond offers:
Mar/19: Securities issuing and repurchase
Sep/19: Securities exchange offer
13
Follow on transactions—Significant growth in the shareholder base with higher free float and lower stake in BR
CAIXA BNDES BR DISTRIBUIDORA
US$ 2.6 bi
393,187,500
common shares
71.25% 37.5%
» 1st privatization of a state-owned
company through the Brazilian capital
market
US$ 1.9 bi
241,340,371
common shares
US$ 5.2 bi
734,202,699
common shares
06/26/2019 02/05/2020
+37%
07/23/2019
Petrobras' stake in BR's capital:Date May/19(Before Caixa
transaction)
Jun/19(After Caixa
transaction)
Jan/20(Before BNDES
transaction)
Feb/20(After BNDES
transaction)
Free float 36.40% 39.64% 39.64% 49.50%
# Shareholders 350,134 350,320 430,342 478,548
14
38
1012
4
33
117
2
Tax Labor Civil/commercial Environmental
2018
2019
US$ billion
Significant reduction in contingencies—Reduction of US$ 11 billion even after the effects of monetary adjustment (US$ 4.2 billion)
15
Contingencies by category
Note: Amounts converted to end period FX. Remote contingencies are not considered. Only possible and probable losses are considered. Tax contingencies include social
security contingencies.
Total
64
53
2018 2019
-18%
US$ billion
» Deficit above R$ 30 billion in Dec/19*
» Additional contribution payments for 18 years
» 100% of the deficit allocated to Petrobras'
balance sheet, but half of the deficit paid by
participants
» Petrobras' annual contribution is less than R$ 1
billion and decreases gradually
» Defined benefit plans closed to new participants
since 2002
Update on Petros—Focus on deficit balancing and new equalization plan
16
» Improvements in Petros management and
governance
» Defined benefit plans being restructured to
solve the deficit: reduction of future benefits,
new levels of additional contribution and
extension of extraordinary payments
» Launch of a new pension plan (PP3), with
defined contribution and voluntary enrollment
Current situation Solutions in progress
* Petros vision
Investments within the 2019 target—Investments focusing on pre-salt exploration and production development
17* without bids
2019 target of
US$10 -11 bi* achieved
CAPEX 2019*
12.6 10.7
120.8
16.7
2018 2019 2020E*
78%
Exploration &
Production
14%
Refining
8%
Others
» Investments considering the acquisition bonus in 2019
totaled US$ 27.4 billion, with highlight to Transfer of
Rights Surplus auction
US$ billion
Bids Investments without bids
13.4
27.4
Annual CAPEX%
Net income—Increase in recurring net income in 4Q19
18
US$ billion
10.09.3
7.2
2018 2019
2.5
3.1
2.31.9
3Q19 4Q19
Recurring net income Net income
2019 x 2018 4Q19 x 3Q19
Recurring net income Net income
+25%
-7%
» Brent devaluation (-9.5%) impacted oil margins in 2019
» Increased production in the pre-salt, lower costs and
better margins in natural gas sales mitigated this effect
» Higher impairments and lower capital gain on asset sale
» Disregarding non-recurring items the result increased by
25%
10.2
US$ billion
Common SharePreferred Share
Shareholder remuneration—Growth of dividend distribution
19
1.8
2.5
3
2018 2019 2020E
US$ 0.17/share(R$ 0.738/share)
» Expected growth in shareholder remuneration when
gross debt reaches US$ 60 bi under the new policy
2019 RemunerationDividends*
US$ billion
US$ 0.22/share(R$ 0.925/share)
* Including interest on capital (IOC)
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
2017 2018 2019
Total shareholder return
33% PBR/A
25% PBR
%
peers
Source: Bloomberg
Portfolio
Management
—
20
Divestments evolution—Total of US$16.3 billion in asset sales in 2019
21
TAG (90%)
Shallow water field
Maromba Field - RJ
Shallow water field
Baúna Field - SP
Paraguay assets
Closed
in 2019 and 2020
Pasadena Refinery
Shallow water fields
Pargo Cluster - RJ
Signed
waiting for closing
Lapa - 10% additional
Signed in 2019
Signed in 2018
BR Distribuidora
Shallow water fields
Pampo and Enchova Clusters - RJ Onshore fields
AM, CE, SE, BA e ES
Shallow water fields
ES e RJ
Deep water fields
SE
Teaser and non binding
phase
Binding
phase
MEGALiquigás
Eólicas Mangue Seco 1 and 2 Uruguay assets (PUDSA)
Onshore fields
Lagoa Parda Cluster - ES Belem Bioenergia Brasil
Onshore fields
Macau Cluster - RN
Note: The amount of US$ 16,3 billion includes transactions signed in 2019 and until February 5th, 2020.
Cash inflow in the same period totals US$ 14,7 billion, including closed transactions and advance
payments of non concluded transactions.
Ponta do Mel and
Redonda Fields - RN
TAG (10%)
Refining and natural gas
assets
Exploration and production
assets
Note:
Change of project phase
since 3Q19
Golfinho and Camarupim Clusters
ES
Papa-Terra Field
RJ Refining assets
REGAP, REMAN, LUBNOR e SIX
Refining assets
RNEST, RLAM, REPAR e REFAP
Tartaruga Verde and Módulo 3
Espadarte Fields (50%) - RJ
Frade Field - RJ
Onshore fields
Riacho da Forquilha Cluster - RN
Petrobras Oil & Gas B.V. –
POG BV
Closed in 2019
Closed in 2020
Exploratory Concessions (ES)
Exploratory Concessions
(PA-MA, RS)
22
Exploration &
production
highlights
—
Oil and gas production—14% growth over 4Q18
Oil and gas productionmillion boed
2.63
2.77
2018 2019
+5%
+2.5%
-2.5%2.70TARGET
2.12 2.02 2.10 2.32 2.45
0.55 0.52 0.530.56 0.58
2.66 2.54 2.632.88 3.03
4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19
Oil Gas
+5%
+14%
23
Oil and gas productionmillion boed
Focus on pre-salt production—44% growth over 4Q18
24
1.281.64
1.84
4Q18 3Q19 4Q19
10%
39%
51%
4Q18
8%
28%
64%
4Q19
8%
31%
60%
3Q19
+44%
+12%
2018 2019
Lula Other Pre-salt Búzios
3%
20%1.2
1.5
Pre-salt productionmillion boed
Oil production in Brazilshare (%)
Pre-salt Post-salt
Onshore and shallow water
Búzios gains relevance in
Pre-saltmillion boed
Production records
P-74
novas
plataformas
P-75
25
Pre-saltPetrobras + partners
Daily
3.3million boed
December
Daily
2.3million boed
November
Monthly
1.9million boed
November
Total productionPetrobras
P-76Ramp-up
pre-salt record
7.7months
Ramp-upPetrobras
Monthly
3.1million boed
November
Total Operated
3.8million boed
December
Production records—We keep breaking production records
Oil and gas production 2020—
Production 2020 in line with operational targets for the year
*
Note: Includes POG and Tartaruga divestments
*Stress corrosion cracking
40%Inspection and
maintenance of subsea
pipelines
(SCC* CO2 effect)
40%Production stoppages
Pre-salt platforms
20%Production stoppages
Post-salt platforms
*3.0
December 2019
2.7
2020 Target
-0.2
Decline
-0.2
Reliability,Integrity and
Safety
Million boed
Ramp-up
Berbigão/Sururu
(P-68), Atapu (P-70)
and Lula (P-67)
+100Mboed0.1
Oil and gas production in the Campos Basin
Kboed
Campos Basin—2024* production returns to 2019 level through new wells in installed systems and new platforms
0
200
400
600
800
1.000
2019 2024
Production Maintenance New Oil
New Oil
(2020-2024)60%
40%
* Not included divestments in the period 2020-24
New wells in installed systems
Marlim revitalization
Parque das Baleias
49%
30%
21%
Pre-salt was determinant for reduction of lifting cost—12% reduction in lifting cost compared to 2018
Lifting cost – Brazil
US$/boe
6.55.6
12.6 12.5
25.7
30.3
20.018.9
2018 2019
8.97.8
2.0
1.8
10.9
9.6
2018 2019
Lifting Cost
Leasing Cost
-12%
Pre-salt
Onshore
Deep water
Shallow
water
28
Production
development
—
29
30
Ramp-up of new systems ensuring production growth
Tartaruga Verde
and Mestiça Post-salt
Cidade de
Campos9 production wells
P-74 5 production wells
P-75 4 production wells
P-76 4 production wells
P-77 4 production wells
Búzios Pre-salt
Berbigão and Sururu Pre-salt
P-68 2 production wells
Lula Pre-salt
P-67 4 production wells
P-69 6 production wells
Ramp-up of 8 platforms in 2019• Start-up of 4 new units
(P-67, P-68, P-76, P-77)
• 4 units reached the production capacity
(P-69, P-74, P-75, P-76)
• Well with record flow of 63 kbpd at P-75
• December production in 8 platforms reached
870 kboed, being 540 kboed in Búzios
Outlook for 2020• P-77 reached production capacity in January
• P-67 to reach production capacity
• Start-up of P-70
31
Chartered
20212020
ITAPU120 kbpd3 Mm3/
d gas
SEAP 100 kbpd
10.5 Mm3/
d gas
INTEGRADO
PQ BALEIAS100 kbpd
5 Mm3/
d gas
MERO 3180 kbpd
12 Mm3/
d gas
BÚZIOS 6Capacity
under study
In execution Under procurement
Start-up
2022 2023 2024
ATAPU 1P-70
150 kbpd
6 Mm3/
d gas
SÉPIAFPSO
CARIOCA180 kbpd
6 Mm3/
d gas
MERO 1FPSO
GUANABARA180 kbpd
12 Mm3/
d gas
Lula RF
150 kbpd
5 MMm3/
d gas
BÚZIOS 5FPSO
Alm. Barroso150 kbpd
6 Mm3/
d gas
MARLIM 2Anna
Nery70 kbpd
4 Mm3/
d gas
MERO 2FPSO
Sepetiba180 kbpd
12 Mm3/
d gas
MARLIM 1Anita
Garibaldi80 kbpd
7 Mm3/
d gas
Own
Under planning
Schedule of the new platforms—New systems support production growth in coming years
Under study
First optimized 20 mooring
lines system in ultra-
deepwater
First 8” production flexible line
in an ultra-deepwater definitive
project with controlled annulus system (CAS)
World largest ultra deep
water Ocean Bottom
Nodes survey acquired
globally
First intensive use of intelligent
completion for total fluid loss scenario Adoption of GLR virtual meter
New riser system
configuration
development approach
First water and gas
simultaneous injection
through manifold ready to
operate in ultra-
deepwater
4 FPSOs deployment in
Búzios within eleven months
Búzios technological advancements—OTC award enshrines a legacy to the offshore oil and gas industry
33
Replan
Refining and
natural gas
highlights—
Production and sale of oil products
—
34
736 710 683
379 416 380
622 690 730
4Q18 3Q19 4Q19
Sales volumethousand bpd
Production of oil productsthousand bpd
1,816 1,793
782 770 697
405 377 383
661 658 649
4Q18 3Q19 4Q19
1,7291,848
Others Gasoline Diesel
1,805 1,736
Participation of the domestic
oil in the processed feedstock
%
90 90 92
4Q18 3Q19 4Q19
Operational availability in
the refineries
%
94 97 96
4Q18 3Q19 4Q19
35
Market share and assets utilization
—
88% 82% 77%
4Q18 3Q19 4Q19
87% 78% 76%
4Q18 3Q19 4Q19
Diesel Gasoline
75% 80% 76%
4Q18 3Q19 4Q19
Utilization factor
Record exports in 2019
—Petrobras as a global player in oil trading
36
-119 39 16
321
430493
4Q18 3Q19 4Q19
158218 219
468
583647
4Q18 3Q19 4Q19
277
179 203
147
153154
4Q18 3Q19 4Q19
Kbpd Kbpd Kbpd
Oil Oil products
424357
626
866
202
509
332
801 469
Imports Exports Net balance
For two consecutive months, Petrobras has surpassed its record daily volume of exported oil in a single month
In 2019, the trading of fuel oil abroad
generated additional value of US$ 150 million
for Petrobras
Opportunities under IMO 2020—Higher production of low sulphur fuel oil
37
162
197
249
4Q18 3Q19 4Q19
» Our refining facilities and logistics infrastructure are well
positioned to capture opportunities, especially in Asia, Europe and
the United States markets
» Increase in bunker 0.5% production whose appreciation allowed
fuel oil exports to grow under more advantageous conditions
» Growing increase in export premiums in 2H19, with Singapore
being the main destination for the company's exports
» In Dec/2019, product sale premiums on the Asian market rose to
levels comparable to diesel
+54%
Total fuel oil productionkbpd
38
1.0 0.7 1.6
38.9 38.5 37.4
17.125.8 29.2
14.913.5 13.3
4Q18 3Q19 4Q19
RTM/Fertilizers Thermoelectric
Non-thermoelectric System gas38
51.2 51.5 50.8
19.2 14.026.4
1.5 13.0
4.3
4Q18 3Q19 4Q19
Domestic Bolivia LNG
71.9 78.5 81.571.9
78.5 81.5
Natural gas supply Natural gas demandMm3/day Mm3/day
Gas supply and demand
—Increased natural gas demand for power generation
38
39
Perspectives for Refining—Petrobras' refining capacity will be reduced by 50%: from 2.2 to 1.1 Mbpd
SALE OF 8 REFINERIES
1st group: RNEST, RLAM, REPAR, REFAP
2nd group: REGAP, REMAN, LUBNOR and SIX
All in binding phase
Expected receipt of all binding proposals between
April and June/2020
Market opening is under way according to the CADE’s agreement, signed in 2019
Digital twin: enhance operational efficiency
Augmented reality: safety and efficiency
Artificial intelligence, applied to asset management
Digital refinery of the future
Efficient and low-cost refining, with a focus on the Southeast region
REPLAN
RECAP
RPBC
REVAP
REDUCRJ
SP
1
2
3
4
5
12
3
45
FU
TU
RE
CU
RREN
T
Opening the gas market
—Full compliance with the commitments signed with
CADE, anticipating the deadlines initially agreed
40
• Leasing process of the Regasification
Terminal in Bahia has started
• Negotiation with YPFB to change trade
conditions regarding the acquisition of
natural gas
• Sale of a 10% stake in TAG and NTS
• Definition of the model for full divestment in
Gaspetro and TBG
• Negotiation of access to the gas flow for
contracting of firm capacities
• Negotiation of access to gas treatment plants
ACTIONS IN PROGRESS2020 and 2021
Completed actions
JUL/19 End of exclusive natural gas transportation contracts
SEP/19 Indication of Petrobras' injection and withdrawal capacities in the
Transport System
DEC/19 Gas treatment units processing services contract draft made available
Execution of the Commitment Agreement with ANP within the scope
of the TBG Public Call
Transition Agreement under the natural gas supply contract with YPFB
Disclosure of the teaser to sell 10% stake in TAG
JAN/20 Appointment of independent board members of TAG, TBG, Gaspetro,
NTS and TSB
Hiring a Monitoring Trustee to track compliance with the CADE terms
41
Commitments to Sustainability—Absolute GHG emissions M tCO2e
23 22 22 21 22
29 28 27 26 26
2616 16 14 12
0
20
40
60
80
100
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
E&P RTC G&E
-23%
» Focus on decarbonization of operations and strengthening the resilience of our
businesses
» Total GHG emissions in 2019 were well below the zero growth emission target
65 62 606778
Note: In addition to emissions from the E&P, RTC and G&E segments, emissions from administrative services,
distribution and biofuels are also included in the total, which correspond to less than 1% of the annual total
* Carbon commitments in relation to 2015
Zero growth in absolute operational emissions until 2025*