Aqueduct's global water risk mapping tool helps companies, investors, governments, and other users understand where and how water risks and opportunities are emerging worldwide.
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AQUEDUCT WRI’S GLOBAL WATER RISK MAPPING TOOL
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WATER SUPPLY CRISES RISK TOPS IMPACT AND LIKELIHOOD
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Hundreds of CEOs and world leaders met last week in Davos, including WRI’s Pres. Andrew Steer In preparation for Davos, the World Economic Forum earlier this month released its 2013 Global Risks report It includes this chart which ranks each global risk by its likelihood and the potential impact it could create. (Click – circle appears)� For the second year in a row – Water was among the top 5 risks (at the top of the chart) – most likely to occur; and highest impact On par with chronic fiscal imbalances and major systemic financial crisis. So what do these water risks look like, and who do they impact? Let’s look at a few examples…
Source: American Farm Bureau Association Photo: USDA
$180 BILLION IN FREIGHT RELY ON MISSISSIPPI
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Last year’s severe drought in the US (2012) worst in 60 years (over 70% of the US declared “natural disaster areas”) Caused up to 1% drop in US GDP One of the less obvious impacts has occurred on the Mississippi River in the United States: This critical shipping artery – carries $180 billion in freight every year (grain, coal, other goods)
Source: Rio Times Photo: flickr: queulat00
BRAZIL DROUGHT POWER PRICE UP 60%
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Another recent example from South America: Drought in Brazil Prospect of power rationing for the first time in over a decade 60% increase in power prices (about 2/3 of Brazil’s power comes from hydro) Cost the government over US$1 billion in relief funds for farmers Both of these are examples of water issues creating real, tangible, and expensive risks for companies, supply chains, investors, governments, and communities. So, back in 2010, WRI set out to better understand and map complex water risks identifying and mapping the data points help us understand where, and in what form, water risks are emerging around the world
BUILDING ON SCIENCE : EXPERT REVIEWERS
CDP Water Disclosure Project
Ceres
Columbia University
Deloitte Consulting LLP
Global Adaptation Institute
Global Water Strategies
Nanjing University
National Geographic
Pacific Institute
The Nature Conservancy
The World Bank
US Environmental Protection Agency
University of Michigan at Ann Arbor
University of North Carolina Chapel Hill
University of Virginia
Water Footprint Network
World Business Council for Sustainable Development
Yale University
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WRI conducted a very rigorous analysis of the latest science and publicly available data We consulted with leading experts from academia, NGOs, government, and the private sector Conducted extensive external peer review with more than 20 water and water risk experts
BUILDING ON BUSINESS : AQUEDUCT ALLIANCE
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To assist us we also reached out to leaders in the private sector …. We created the Aqueduct Alliance, in partnership with our original supporters GE and Goldman Sachs Since then, we’ve added a broad array of partners (NAME THEM) to our Aqueduct Alliance
> HOW WE EVOLVED
> WHAT WE LEARNED
> WHERE WE STARTED
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In the three years since we started Aqueduct, we have come a long way. I want to take a few minutes to walk you through Aqueduct’s evolution: where we started what we learned how we advanced from those lessons to create the product we released on January 30th
WHERE IT STARTED : 2010 WATER AND POWER
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WRI took its first look at mapping water risks back in 2010 – “Over Heating” publication in 2010 looked at thermoelectric and hydropower generation locations with water stress in Asia This simple little image became one of the most widely cited and circulated images from WRI that year We realized that good maps were important to helping people understand water risk…
WHERE WE STARTED : BASIN-BY-BASIN
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Our original effort was basin-by-basin We set out to map water risks in 10 priority river basins around the world We learned a great deal from the 6 basins we mapped (shown here, and downloadable) how to create multi-variable water risk maps, developing good risk indicators local data for many key indicators didn’t exist in key basins we couldn’t provide the coverage that companies with global operations and supply chains, and other users, need to understand and compare risk and prioritize We focused on the opportunity to make something much more useful by creating global maps…
HOW WE EVOLVED : GLOBAL MAPPING
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Now, 3 years later… Aqueduct is the most high-resolution, up-to-date global water risk mapping source in the world. A comprehensive set of global maps with data for 15,000 catchments Allows for full coverage, while still providing excellent resolution Using the most current data available (2010) Provides groundwater maps for the first time So, what is it that we are mapping? That has evolved too.�
UNDERSTANDING RISK : AQUEDUCT FRAMEWORK
Baseline water stress
Inter-annual variability
Seasonal variability
Flood occurrence
Drought severity
Upstream storage
Groundwater stress
Physical Risk: QUANTITY
Overall Water Risk
Media coverage
Access to water
Threatened amphibians
Regulatory & Reputational Risk
Return flow ratio
Upstream protected land
Physical Risk: QUALITY
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We are now mapping 12 separate indicators under the Aqueduct Water Risk Framework brings indicators together under three key categories of water risk; and also provides an overall aggregated risk score includes several indicators developed exclusively for Aqueduct (baseline water stress, variability (interannual & seasonal), return flow ratio structured, in particular, to help companies and investors understand indicators of water-related risk to their business… but is intended for all users, including government and civil society to better understand geographic water issues Aqueduct’s 30+ data sources selected using multiple criteria: - Relevance to water users and water managers - Robustness of data collection methodology - Global coverage - Granularity - Timeliness of publications - Length of time covered Responded to feedback that less is more � Each indicator has a map, and each map tells a piece of the story on water risk. Let’s look at a few...
Data Source: Brackenridge et.al. Dartmouth Flood Observatory
INDICATOR : WHERE FLOOD IMPACT IS HIGHEST
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One indicator we map is floods – not just where they happen, but where they have the greatest impact Several things pop out in this map: Some flooding is driven by hurricanes and typhoons – like the east coast of the US and parts of Asia Some flooding is driven by rivers that flood from snowmelt – like parts of Europe Some flooding is monsoon driven – like south Asia� All of these floods have the potential to create costly disruptions
Data Source: IUCN Red List of Endangered Species
INDICATOR : WHERE ECOSYSTEMS ARE FRAGILE
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Another indicator looks at threatened amphibian species as a proxy for fragile freshwater ecosystems Places where these key indicator species are threatened may be more likely to come under additional protection requirements. They can also pose reputational risks – companies may face more scrutiny if they are operating in areas where there is the potential – real or perceived – to damage fragile ecosystems
Data Source: Gleeson et.al. Nature 2012
INDICATOR : WHERE GROUNDWATER IS OVERDRAWN
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Groundwater is an important part of the water picture This is the first time groundwater has been included in a water risk tool We look at which major aquifers are being mined unsustainably – where water is being taken out faster than it is being replenished Comes from a dataset developed by McGill university, published in Nature magazine (2012) Looks at major aquifers (note: areas in gray represent areas with complex or shallow groundwater resources which pose challenges for reporting reliable statistics) Represents some of the most recent and robust research on groundwater abstraction and recharge rates I’ve highlighted just a few of Aqueduct’s water risk indicators here, but they are most powerful when they come together…
THE POWER OF AGGREGATION
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- Once we have the indicators and the data for all the catchments globally, we stack them on top of each other one by one by one…
THE POWER OF AGGREGATION
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…And create overall water risk maps that – combine information from each indicator into comprehensive, and richly textured picture of water risk around the world
0% 25% 50% 75% 100%
WRI Default
Agriculture
Food & Beverage
Chemicals
Electric power
Semi-conductor
Oil & Gas
Mining
Construction Materials
Textile
UNIQUE USERS : TAILORED WEIGHTING
Quantity Quality Regulatory and reputational
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We recognize that different users, different types of businesses, will prioritize risk indicators differently Aqueduct offers a set of pre-determined indicator weightings that generate water risk maps: a “WRI default” weighting specific weightings tailored for 9 key industry sectors These pre-sets are only a suggested starting point, the tool allows users to customize the weight of each indicator to reflect their own specific interests or concerns
OPEN PLATFORM : USER FRIENDLY AND FREE
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…and here is how all of those pieces come together…into High resolution maps (CLICK to ZOOM in) Online interface that is very easy to use and functional And in keeping with WRI’s open data and transparency values: Aqueduct’s methodology, maps, GIS shape files, and data completely free to all users easily downloadable
ZOOM IN FOR MORE DETAIL
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…and here is how all of those pieces come together…into High resolution maps (CLICK to ZOOM in) Online interface that is very easy to use and functional And in keeping with WRI’s open data and transparency values: Aqueduct’s methodology, maps, GIS shape files, and data completely free to all users easily downloadable
ZOOM IN FOR MORE DETAIL
Presenter
Presentation Notes
…and here is how all of those pieces come together…into High resolution maps (CLICK to ZOOM in) Online interface that is very easy to use and functional And in keeping with WRI’s open data and transparency values: Aqueduct’s methodology, maps, GIS shape files, and data completely free to all users easily downloadable
OPEN PLATFORM : USER FRIENDLY AND FREE
Presenter
Presentation Notes
…and here is how all of those pieces come together…into High resolution maps (CLICK to ZOOM in) Online interface that is very easy to use and functional And in keeping with WRI’s open data and transparency values: Aqueduct’s methodology, maps, GIS shape files, and data completely free to all users easily downloadable
AQUEDUCT IS ALREADY IN USE
National Intelligence Council – used Aqueduct data and maps in national intelligence estimate on global water security
McDonalds – required 353 of its biggest suppliers to map their facility locations on Aqueduct, and report their water risk levels back to the corporation
Procter & Gamble –using Aqueduct maps and data as part of their water risk assessment strategy
Bank of America/Merrill Lynch – Used Aqueduct data and maps to inform investors on water risks and opportunities for investment in their 2012 ESG & Sustainability report: A Blue Revolution – global water.
