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Analysis of Future Precipitation Analysis of Future Precipitation

CitarumCitarum River Basin, IndonesiaRiver Basin, IndonesiaADB Intern Yutaka Araki

e v ews expresse n s paper presen a on are e v ews o e au or an o no necessar yreflect the views or policies of the Asian Development Bank (ADB), or its Board of Governors, or thegovernments they represent. ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in thispaper and accepts no responsibility for any consequence of their use. Terminology used may notnecessarily be consistent with ADB official terms.



Analysis on Analysis on Citarum,IndonesiaCitarum,Indonesia

・Most strategic river basin・Climate Chan e could lead to more severe and

frequent flooding, and raise sea level in the river mouth

‐ , m as n area

‐3 hydroelectric dams

‐1400MW

‐400,000ha Irrigation‐80% of Jakarta’s water



・50 & 80 years later

(2046‐2065, 2081‐2100 (+1981‐2000))

・based on 2 CO2‐emission‐scenario

‐ SRES A1B & B1

ToolsTools

・17 25 M in CMIP3



ＳＲＥＳＲＥＳ

A1｢High economic growth｣

(Special Report on Emissions Scenarios)

Globalization

A1FI:enphasis on fossil fuel

A1B:

Balanced

energy

useA1T: Non fossil fuel.(Technical innovation in

Energy)A1 B1

A2｢Differentiated world｣

slower technological change, less emphasis on

economic, social, and cultural interactions

Environment

‐oriented

Economy‐

oriented ,

B1｢Sustainable development｣

pay increased attention to the environmental, Technological change plays an important role

｢

B2A2

B2｢Loca se ‐re iance an stronger communities｣

shift toward local and regional decision‐making

structures and institutions,Regionalization



Originating Group(s) Country CMIP3 I.D. 20c3m SRES A1B

Beijing Climate Center China BCC-CM1 - -

Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research Norway BCCR-BCM2.0 - -

a ona en er or mosp er c esearc - - , -

Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling & Analysis Canada CGCM3.1(T47) 1981-1999 2046-2064,2081-2099

Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling & Analysis Canada CGCM3.1(T63) 1981-1999 2046-2064,2081-2099

Météo-France / Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques France CNRM-CM3 1981-2000 2046-2065,2081-2100

CSIRO Atmospheric Research Australia CSIRO-Mk3.0 1981-1999 2046-2064,2081-2099

CSIRO Atmospheric Research Australia CSIRO-Mk3.5 1981-1999 2046-2064,2081-2099

Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Germany ECHAM5/MPI-OM 1981-2000 2046-2065,2081-2100

Meteorological Institute of the University of Bonn, MeteorologicalResearch Institute of KMA, and Model and Data group.

Germany / Korea ECHO-G 1979-1997 2044-2062,2078-2096

LASG / Institute of Atmospheric Physics China FGOALS-g1.0 - -

US Dept. of Commerce / NOAA / Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory USA GFDL-CM2.0 1981-1999 2046-2064,2081-2099

US Dept. of Commerce / NOAA / Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory USA GFDL-CM2.1 1981-1999 2046-2064,2081-2099

NASA / Goddard Institute for Space Studies USA GISS-AOM 1981-2000 2046-2065,2081-2100

NASA / Goddard Institute for S ace Studies USA GISS-EH - -

NASA / Goddard Institute for Space Studies USA GISS-ER - -

Instituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia Italy INGV-SXG - -

Institute for Numerical Mathematics Russia INM-CM3.0 1981-2000 2046-2065,2081-2100

Institut Pierre Simon Laplace France IPSL-CM4 1981-1999 2046-2064,2081-2099Center for Climate System Research (The University of Tokyo), National

Institute for Environmental Studies, and Frontier Research Center forGlobal Change (JAMSTEC)

Japan MIROC3.2(hires) 1981-2000 2046-2065,2081-2100

Center for Climate System Research (The University of Tokyo), NationalInstitute for Environmental Studies, and Frontier Research Center for

Global Change (JAMSTEC)Japan

MIROC3.2(medres)

1981-2000 2046-2065,2081-2100

Meteorological Research Institute Japan MRI-CGCM2.3.2 1981-1999 2046-2064,2081-2099

National Center for Atmospheric Research USA PCM 1980-1998 2046-2064,2080-2098

Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research / Met Office UK UKMO-HadCM3 - -

Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research / Met Office UK UKMO-HadGEM1 - -



Analysis data Analysis data (example from 1model, MIROC3.2(hires))(example from 1model, MIROC3.2(hires))

Date/Mon/Yearr a n a

(mm/day)1, JAN, 1981 7.05442

2, JAN, 1981 0.547167

・

・

31, DEC, 1981 1.53799

1, JAN, 1982 8.55489・

・

(20th Century Climate Coupled Models)

, , .

1, JAN, 2046 40.2292 1, JAN, 2046 11.9556

2, JAN, 2046 28.545 2, JAN, 2046 25.1224

・・

・・365day×20years Rainfall

31, DEC, 2046 19.3715 31, DEC, 2046 27.1505

1, JAN, 2047 17.2827 1, JAN, 2047 8.53636

・・

・・

31, DEC, 2065 10.4602 31, DEC, 2065 12.4373

data/SRES B1

Rainfall data/SRES A1B

1, JAN, 2081 16.6724 1, JAN, 2081 9.21539

2, JAN, 2081 14.4725 2, JAN, 2081 25.3945

・・

・・

365day×20years Rainfall 365day×20years

31, DEC, 2081 10.1454 31, DEC, 2081 3.026171, JAN, 2082 8.72172 1, JAN, 2082 15.1178

・・

・・

31, DEC, 2100 4.1766 31, DEC, 2100 5.68879

ata

Rainfall data/SRES A1B



←←Citarum River

1 2

43 5

PCM (USA)CCSM3.0 (USA)



•

• No rainfall days / consecutive no rainfall days

• nnua ra n a

• Seasonal rainfall (dry and rainy)• Probable daily rainfall (5,10,100 years return)

‐ oo y ra nage

‐ Irrigation/Drought management

‐



1.2

no rainfall days

1.05

1.1

1.15

A1B

12%UP

0.9

0.95

1

1981‐2000 2046‐2065 2081‐2100

B1

number of model which shows increase

A1B 50years later 70% (12/17) Likely

80years later 65% (11/17) More likely than not

B1 50years later 70% (12/17) Likely

80years later 65% (11/17) More likely than not



Heavy rainfall days Heavy rainfall days 3.5

Heavy rainfall days (>50mm/day)

>50mm day >50mm day 2

2.5

3

A1B

0.5

1

1.5

B1


1981‐2000 2046‐2065 2081‐2100

A1B 50years later 90% (9/10) very likely

80years later 80% (8/10) likely

B1 50years later 90% (9/10) very likely



1.1

Annual rainfall 1 A1B

0.9

1981‐2000 2046‐2065 2081‐2100

B1

number of model which shows increasing rainfall

A1B 50years later 53% (9/17)

B1 50years later 53% (9/17)

80years later 65% (11/17)

(root‐mean‐square deviation)

A1B 50years later 53% (9/17)

80 ears later 47% 8/17

B1 50years later 53% (9/17)

80years later 47% (8/17)



Dry season Rainy season

1

1.02

1.04

1.06

1.08

.

1

1.02

1.04

1.06

1.08

.

A1B

0.94

0.96

0.98

1981‐

2000 2046‐

2065 2081‐

2100

0.94

0.96

0.98

1981‐

2000 2046‐

2065 2081‐

2100

number of model which showsdecreasing trend (Dry season)

number of model which showsincreasing trend (Rainy season)

80years later 65% (11/17) 80years later 71% (12/17)

B1 50years later 59% (10/17) B1 50years later 41% (7/17)

80years later 41% (7/17) 80years later 82% (14/17)



Longest consecutive Longest consecutive Longest consecutive no rainfall

da s

no rainfall daysno rainfall days0.8

1

1.21.4

A1B

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

1981‐2000 2046‐2065 2081‐2100

B1


1 50years ater 11 17 ore e y t an not

80years later 65% (11/17) ) More likely than not

B1 50years later 60% (10/17) ) More likely than not

80years later 60% (10/17) ) More likely than not



EC HAM 5/M PI-O M , Log-norm al Probability Paper (C unnane)

99.9999

99.999

99.99

99.9999

99.999

99.99

99.9999

99.999

99.99

99.9999

99.999

99.99

99.9999

99.999

99.99

99.9999

99.999

99.99

nonexceedance

probability

ProbableProbableR² = 0.958

R² = 0.9775

R² = 0.9685R² = 0.8955

R² = 0.9564

99.9

99

90

70

50

99.9

99

90

70

50

99.9

99

90

70

50

99

90

70

50

99

90

70

50

■20C3M1981‐2000

▲A1b 2046‐2065

◆A1b 2081‐2100

■B1 2046‐2065

●B1 2081‐2100

99

90

70

50

rainfall rainfall

0.01

0.1

1

10

0.01

0.1

1

10

0.01

0.1

1

10

0.01

0.1

1

10

0.01

0.1

1

10

0.01

0.1

1

10

10 100

0.0001

.

0.0001

.

0.0001

.

0.0001

.

0.0001

.

mm/day

0.0001

.

A1BA1B B1B1- - - -

Number of models which show

more severe distribution than

82% 94% 76% 53%

9 /17now

5-year probable rainfall 1.18 1.31 1.14 1.18

- . . . .

100-year probable rainfall 1.20 1.36 1.17 1.18



Incremental Ratio of

Dail Probable Rainfall 10 ear A1B 50 ears later

from 17 models

IPSL‐CM4

CCSM3CGCM3.1(T63)GFDL

‐

CM2.0

MIROC3.2(hires)

ECHAM5 MPI‐OMCSIRO‐Mk3.0

GFDL‐CM2.1MIROC3.2(medres)

‐

MRI‐CGCM2.3.2GISS‐AOM

ECHO‐G

CSIRO‐Mk3.5INM‐CM3.0

PCM Average=1.2(from 17 models)

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8

.



・Area Citarum Upper Basin・Return eriod 10 ears・Climate Current and 50 years later(A1B)

NanjungNanjung

Dayeuh KolotDayeuh Kolot

MajalayaMajalaya



Future Desi n

es gn y rograpes gn y rograpes gn a n aes gn a n a

Discharge

urren es gn

RainfallRainfall under

Climate Change

(m^3/s)1 1.

Hydrological

Model

Climate Change

Current Climate



25

30

35

40

45

cibeureum

Citarum Upper Basin

0

5

10

15

20

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

C ur re nt 5 0 yearslater(A1B)0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Citepus

C ur re nt 5 0 yearslater(A1B)

0

20

40

60

80

100

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Cikapundung

C ur r en t 5 0 years later(A1B)

0

10

20

30

40

50

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Cipamakolan


0

50

100

150

200

250

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Cikeruh

C ur re nt 5 0 years later(A1B)

80

100

120

140

Ciwidey

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Cidurian


0

50

100

150

200

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Citarik


200

Cisangkuy

Increase! 0

20

40

60

0 20 40 60 80 100 120


0

50

100

150

200

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Cisangkuy


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Cicadas


6070

80

Cirasea50

100

150

0

10

20

30

40

50

0 20 40 60 80 100 120


100

150

200

majalaya‐Citarum Main

0

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Current 50 years later(A1B)

0

50

0 20 40 60 80 100 120




Probable flood (10year)Probable flood (10year)Current ClimateCurrent Climate

Probable flood (10year)Probable flood (10year)50 years later50 years later



Flood SimulationFlood SimulationOrangeOrange – – Current Design FloodCurrent Design Flood

PurplePurple – – Future Design FloodFuture Design Flood

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