ARCHITECTS OF AN INTERNET WORLD

Broadband Wireless Broadband Wireless

““HAPPENINGS” HAPPENINGS”

George HendryGeorge HendryAlcatelAlcatel

ARCHITECTS OF AN INTERNET WORLD

Broadband WirelessHealth Assessment

“”Doesn’t work in rain” “Can’t compete with DSL” “Stumbled at the starting gate” “Stillbirth of BB Wireless” “Wireless won’t work” “Optics is the only solution” “No equipment” “Equipment too expensive”

Naysayers are having fun

Pontificators and sideliners became instant experts

ARCHITECTS OF AN INTERNET WORLDBroadband WirelessHealth Assessment

ARE WE DEAD?ARE WE DYING?

ARE WE SICK?

NO WAY!!We ARE having birthing pains ----- Just like any other new technology

ARCHITECTS OF AN INTERNET WORLD Market Evolution

Segmentation in the Market North America -- ROW Small Operators -- Large Operators Urban -- Suburban -- Rural Large/Medium/Small Business SOHO/Residential “Pipe Size” for early NA customers is larger than expected

Leads to early adopters going for dedicated pipes instead of shared BW systems

Larger NA operators consuming their resources trying to get large pipes to these large customers

This drives the need for different solutions for different markets

ARCHITECTS OF AN INTERNET WORLD North America -- ROW

International deployments outpacing North America Hanaro Telecom

10,000 subscribers in less than 1 year New subscribers at 1000 per week

Why the difference? Early PMP solutions tend to suit the ROW market better than US

Market Competing service offerings not as strong Tariffs are higher Regulatory constraints some time limit use of other technologies (P-P

microwave, unbundled copper, fiber plant)

ARCHITECTS OF AN INTERNET WORLD Alcatel Deployments

North AmericaFarmers Telephone Maxlink, Prime CompaniesRegional IOCs

Latin AmericaBellsouth Int., Convergence,Entel, Mobicom, Pegaso, Rey Moreno (Telefonica),Techtel

EuropeBroadNetCallino, Cegetel, E-Plus, Eltele, ETI, Firstmark,Formus,Intracom/ETE,KPN, LandTel,ProFuturo, Retevision,Skypoint, Telecel, Telefonica, Telenor, Telenordia, Teracom, Tesion, Westgate

Middle East, AfricaEurocom

Asia PacificCESEC, Clear, Hanaro, Keppel, Korea Telecom, Pacific Internet, Optus, Smartone

Over 100 networks in deploymentOver 1700 Base stations installed

ARCHITECTS OF AN INTERNET WORLD What HAS happened

Deployments ARE underway -

to date, primarily high capacity PTP in the US

lots of PMP in the rest of the world

We’re coming up the learning curve

Vendors ARE delivering solutions for the different requirements

New features ARE coming out

Equipment cost IS dropping

But the Market Is still evolving

ARCHITECTS OF AN INTERNET WORLD What has NOT Happened

I have not become independently wealthy

No major deployments of PMP in the U.S.

As yet no large US operator is championing

multipoint wireless as a primary national access

mode (but we are getting close)

No indisputable proof yet of PMP business case

ARCHITECTS OF AN INTERNET WORLD

No major PMP deployments in the U.S. Vendors:

Lack of deployable equipment to fit the various needs No longer a problem as of this year

Operators: Some are in a “wait and see” mode Many are fully consumed with other parts of the business and

deploying other technologies such as point-to-point microwave, fiber, DSL,……

Why Not?

ARCHITECTS OF AN INTERNET WORLD Why Not ?

No large operator is championing multipoint wireless Other opportunities consuming resources Point-to-Multipoint is a small-medium business

technology -- much of their current business is medium-large businesses PTP.

Acquisition of roof top rights is consuming and fatiguing

“Once you have the roof - put lots of bits to it”

No proof yet of PMP business case We’re too early in the rollout curve to see the proof

ARCHITECTS OF AN INTERNET WORLD WHEN will it happen? Worldwide deployments will escalate

quickly in 2001 North America PTP and PMP deployments

will likely be slow the first half of the year Economic conditions Availability of capital Users waiting on proof of technology

2nd half COULD be the start of a steep ramp-up

ARCHITECTS OF AN INTERNET WORLD WHAT will MAKE it happen

Enablers Vendors perform on product delivery

Volume Features Cost

We need a good reference system in North America Which technology is irrelevant Reasonable size with 100s of subscribers

Large operator endorsement of technology

ARCHITECTS OF AN INTERNET WORLD Summary & Predictions

Significant deployments outside North America

Quick increase in N.A. during second half of year

Consolidations will occur - both Operators & Vendors

There will be some casualties

Surprising new operators will come on the scene

ARCHITECTS OF AN INTERNET WORLD Summary & Predictions Ramp-up similar to other new technologies (ADSL)

Our challenge is to prove our technology works

Wireless has many skeptics

No large operator endorsement

IT WILL HAPPEN - TIMING IS THE

QUESTION