arctic regional climate modelling: gem-arctic, the dgf...

Arctic Regional Climate Modelling:Arctic Regional Climate Modelling:GEMGEM--Arctic, the DGF Process and Arctic, the DGF Process and

CloudSat CloudSat –– CALIPSO New Perspective CALIPSO New Perspective

JJ--P Blanchet, E. Girard, C. Jones, P Blanchet, E. Girard, C. Jones, P. P. GrenierGrenier, R. Munoz, R. Munoz--Alpizar, P. Du, C. Stefanof, A. Stefanof, D. Alpizar, P. Du, C. Stefanof, A. Stefanof, D. SimjanovskiSimjanovski

University of Quebec at Montreal (UQAM)University of Quebec at Montreal (UQAM)

with collaboration fromwith collaboration from

G. Stephens, D. Winker , C. G. Stephens, D. Winker , C. TrepteTrepte, J. , J. PelonPelon, J. Jiang, E. , J. Jiang, E. FetzerFetzerCloudSat CloudSat –– CALIPSO CALIPSO –– AURA AURA –– AIRS TeamsAIRS Teams

Towards a Polar Snowfall Hydrology Mission: Towards a Polar Snowfall Hydrology Mission: The Science and the GapsThe Science and the Gaps

2626--28 June 200728 June 2007Montreal, Quebec Montreal, Quebec

ObjectivesObjectives

1.1. Summarize the development of the new Summarize the development of the new GEM GEM –– ClimClim Canadian Regional Climate Canadian Regional Climate ModelModel

2.2. DehydrationDehydration--Greenhouse Feedback (DGF)Greenhouse Feedback (DGF)an indirect effect of aerosols on cloud and an indirect effect of aerosols on cloud and precipitation and climate in the Arctic.precipitation and climate in the Arctic.

3.3. New results from New results from CloudSatCloudSat--CALIPSOCALIPSO

CRCM CRCM -- ArcticArctic

Two ModelsTwo Models (dynamic kernels) are used:(dynamic kernels) are used:

NARCMNARCM = CRCM (MC2) + CAM aerosols= CRCM (MC2) + CAM aerosolsStatus: Mature with 6 years of experimentsStatus: Mature with 6 years of experimentsStructure: Scalar model (very slow !!!)Structure: Scalar model (very slow !!!)

GEMGEM--CAMCAM = CRCM (GEM) + CAM aerosols= CRCM (GEM) + CAM aerosolsStatus: In development from forecast modelStatus: In development from forecast modelStructure: Parallelised modelStructure: Parallelised model

The Canadian Regional Climate Modellingand Diagnostics (CRCMD) Network

GEM can be run in a variety of configurations

● Potential for a common modelling framework for the development and application of both global & regional climatemodels

● Joint weather forecast, climate and cloud resolving domains

● Applicable to any regions on a wide range of scales

● One application is the Arctic processes and climate studies

Simulated Annual cycle of 2-metre temperature at 3 distinctly different climatic locations around the globe.

Ref.: Zav Kothavala, Colin Jones, Katja Winger, Bernard Dugas & Ayrton Zadra

BondvilleckMAGS GAPP BALTEX GAME

LBA LA PLATA CEOP Observation Site

MDB

AMMA

Transferability of GEM-LAM has been assessed through participation in the GEWEX-CEOP ICTS transferability study.

We have made some tests of GEM-LAM over North Americaon a common domain at 0.45º, 0.3º and 0.15º resolution

Barrow: Native domain freq. distribution (Precipitation)

Ref.: Zav Kothavala, Colin Jones, Katja Winger, Bernard Dugas & Ayrton Zadra

Winter Summer

GEM Evaluation vs SHEABARef.: D. Simjanovski and C. Jones

PRECIPITABLE_WATER

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Aug/97 Sep/97 Nov/97 Jan/98 Feb/98 Apr/98 Jun/98 Jul/98 Sep/98

PREC

IPIT

AB

LE_W

ATE

R [K

g/m

2 ]

CLOUD_COVER

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

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0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00


CLO

UD

_CO

VER

SW_DOWN

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350


SWD

[W/m

2 ]

LW_DOWN

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50

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350


LWD

[W/m

2 ]

NARCM: Aerosol SizeNARCM: Aerosol Size--Specie ResolvedSpecie ResolvedS ectiona l S ize R epresen ta tion

A eroso l R ad ius [μm ]

0.001 0 .01 0 .1 1 10 100

Dis

tribu

tion

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

3

4

5

6

7

89

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12

• Flexible model structure• Multi-components Simulations• Physically based size distribution• Numeric diffusion for particle growth• Computational intensive (large bin no.)

Gong, Barrie and Blanchet et al. 2003, JGR

Mas

s

CanadianAerosol ModuleGong et al (1997, 2003)

DynamicsPhysics

Semi-lagrangiantracer transport

CRCMCanadian Regional Climat Model

Aerosol sourcefunction

Aerosol processes

CAMCanadian Aerosol Module

NARCMNorthern Aerosol Climate Model

DehydrationDehydration GreenhouseGreenhouse Feedback Feedback DGF DGF -- ProcessProcess

Sulphur Injection into the ArcticSulphur Injection into the Arctic

AMAP Assessment Report: Arctic Pollution Issues. Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP), Oslo, Norway. Xii+859 pp

64%

from

Rus

sia

Noril’skA point source

within the Arctic Circle

Evidences of Evidences of aerosol alterations in the Arcticaerosol alterations in the Arctic

BiggBigg (1980) observed (1980) observed sulfuric sulfuric acid coatingacid coating on nearly all on nearly all other aerosol particles during other aerosol particles during winterwinter

Boris observed Boris observed reduced ice reduced ice nuclei activitynuclei activity by 100 to by 100 to 10000 fold in crystal counts 10000 fold in crystal counts during anthropogenic Arctic during anthropogenic Arctic haze event.haze event.

New laboratory observationsNew laboratory observations(Bertram and Girard) confirm (Bertram and Girard) confirm the reduced IFN activity of the reduced IFN activity of sulfuric acid coated aerosolssulfuric acid coated aerosols

Reaction on calcium fluorideRef.: Bigg, 1980

Size (μm)

Tim

e (d

ays)

Cold CloudsCold Clouds Regime (Arctic FallRegime (Arctic Fall--WinterWinter--Spring)Spring)

Ref.: Girard, Blanchet, JAS 2001

Radius (microns)0.01 0.1 1 10

Con

cent

ratio

n

Sulphate Enriched Mixture

• Fewer but larger ice crystals• Cooling positive feedback (colder)• Radar: visible• Thin Ice Cloud type 2

Radius (microns)0.01 0.1 1 10

Con

cent

ratio

nPristine Aerosols

• Numerous and small ice crystals• Long cloud lifetime (warmer)• Radar: no or weak return• Thin Ice Cloud type 1

20µm 200µm Mas

s Fl

ux >

100

00X

DG

F ef

fect

Lesserosion

H2SO4shell

Ice and Snow layers

Two Opposite States: Diamond Dust or Ice Fog

Dehydration-Greenhouse Feedback (DGF)

Less H2O vapour

Acid Aerosols **

* ** ** **

**

* **

**

***

* ***

*

* *** *

* *** * *

**Low Acid AerosolsHydrophilic

WarmerColder

Reduced Greenhouse

Increased Greenhouse

Clouds forming on acidic ice nuclei precipitate more effectively, dehydrate the air, reduce greenhouse effect and cool the surface

Slow Cooling Process adiabatic cooling and IR lost

Thin Ice Clouds type 1Thin Ice Clouds type 2

Cold Ice and Snow Surface

AVHRR T 20 yr Summer Temperature Trend NASA/Goddard Space Flight CenterScientific Visualization Studio, Larry Stock, Robert Gerstenbased on data analysis by Joey Comiso (NASA)

Sea ice-albedo feedback (+)

Snow-albedo feedback (+)

A rapidly declining perennial sea ice cover in the Arctic, Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 29, No. 20, October 2002

http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/search/Keyword/Arctic.html

Mean Annual Trend °C / yr

AVHRR T 20 yr Winter Temperature Trend 1982-2002 NASA/Goddard Space Flight CenterScientific Visualization Studio, Larry Stock, Robert Gersten (2003)

CGCM1/IS92a-Winter

2040-60 minus 1975-95


Raatz, 1991H

L

LL

H

AVHRR T 20 yr Winter Trend near Noril’sk,Russiaemits 2.8Mt SO2/yr at 69°N 88°E in the Arctic Circle

Main flow Acid shadow?

Acid shadow? Acid shadow?

Noril’sk(coldest trend!)

Ref.: NASA Goddard


AVHRR T 20 yr Autumn Trend near Noril’sk,Russiaemits 2.8Mt SO2/yr at 69°N 88°E in the Arctic Circle

Acid shadow?Noril’sk(cold trend)

Ref.: NASA Goddard


AVHRR T 20 yr Spring Trend near Noril’sk,Russiaemits 2.8Mt SO2/yr at 69°N 88°E in the Arctic Circle

Noril’sk

Ref.: NASA Goddard

http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/search/Keyword/Arctic.html


WhatWhat do do wewe seesee in the in the ArcticArcticfromfrom CloudSat CloudSat –– CalipsoCalipso ??

Can Can wewe detectdetect DGF type of DGF type of processprocess ??On On whatwhat scalescale ??

Do Do wewe seesee anyany possible possible responseresponse ??

Typical Winter ConditionsTypical Winter ConditionsJanuary 1, 2007 January 1, 2007 –– CALIPSO + CloudSatCALIPSO + CloudSat

CloudSat

Case Case StudyStudy: : KyrillKyrill StormStormJanuaryJanuary 18, 200718, 2007

KyrillKyrill StormStormJanuaryJanuary 19, 200719, 2007

Surface Pressure(black lines mb)

and

Geopotential Heights(color contours m)

KyrillKyrill Storm Storm –– System Through ExtensionSystem Through Extension

AerosolAerosol Simulation Simulation duringduring KyrillKyrill StormStormJanuaryJanuary 1515--21, 200721, 2007

CAM – segmented aerosol model: 12 size bins from 0.005 to 20 µm5 species: sea salt, soil, organics, soot and sulfate

Scale: Log Concentration in kg.m-3

Total Aerosol – 854mb Sulfate Aerosol – 923mb

Horizontal resolution: 45kmModel NARCM

ViewView fromfrom CalipsoCalipso –– CloudSat CloudSat JanuaryJanuary 19, 200719, 2007

U.S.A. U.S.A. –– ArcticArctic ComparisonComparison

2007/01/19 08:25:37.4350 UTC 2007/01/19 01:50:03.2330 UTC

Frequent Arctic Overpass Frequent Arctic Overpass Compact Time Sampling and near 3D Horizon ViewCompact Time Sampling and near 3D Horizon View

«« Tour Tour dd’’horizonhorizon »» around the Polearound the PoleJanuary 19, 2007January 19, 2007

Weather Weather SynopticsSynoptics of of KyrillKyrill StormStormJanuary 16 January 16 –– 29, 200729, 2007

Surface Pressure & 500mb HeightSurface Pressure & 500mb Height( ~ Mean Temperature in lowest 5 km)( ~ Mean Temperature in lowest 5 km)

DGF Process in ActionDGF Process in Action

EnhencedCold Dome

Airmass

TIC type 2: Cold TIC type 2: Cold LowLow PenetrationPenetration in in thethe ArcticArctic andandSlowlySlowly Lifting Lifting AcidicAcidic AerosolAerosol withwith DGFDGF

IRNET

LSCALE: A 5 to 8 day dehydration- IR cooling process1000 – 3000 km

Radar VisibleLarge Ice Crystals

Higher Precipitation Rate

Day 1January 18, 2007

O3

CO2

H2O H2OTrace Gases

Greenhouse Atmospheric Radiation at the groundGreenhouse Atmospheric Radiation at the groundWater Vapour is the Strongest Greenhouse GasWater Vapour is the Strongest Greenhouse Gas

Downward IR spectral radiance (53° zenith angle) using LOWTRAN

ArcticArctic EquinoxEquinoxJuneJune 21, 200721, 2007

3200 km

TIC type 1: Cold TIC type 1: Cold LowLow PenetrationPenetration in in thethe ArcticArctic andandSlowlySlowly Lifting Lifting PristinePristine Air Air withoutwithout DGF DGF EffectEffect

L

IR

IR

Radar TransparentSmall Ice Crystals

Low Precipitation Rate

Arctic Winter: Thin Ice Clouds Type 1 (pristine) over GreenlandJanuary 19, 2007

TIC-1

Thin Ice Clouds Thick Ice CloudsMid-latitudesAntarctic

Antarctica Winter: Thin Ice Clouds Type 1 (pristine)July 15, 2006

Summary: Cloud Types Summary: Cloud Types –– IFN AerosolIFN AerosolJanuary 19, 2007January 19, 2007

Thin Ice Cloud type 2 high [aerosols] (acidic),

large ice crystalsand fast sedimentation

Thin Ice Cloud type 1low [aerosol] (pristine),

small crystalsslow sedimentation

DGF-DeepDGF-PBL

No DGF

ThinThin IceIce Cloud (TIC) TypesCloud (TIC) Types

TICTIC--11Pristine environmentPristine environment

Active IFN (low acid) Active IFN (low acid) Small ice crystalsSmall ice crystalsWeak sedimentation rateWeak sedimentation rateRandomly orientationRandomly orientationLower IR emissivityLower IR emissivityRadar transparentRadar transparentEx: thin cirrus (pristine)Ex: thin cirrus (pristine)

Ice Ice stratusstratus or ice fogor ice fog

TICTIC--22Anthropogenic effectAnthropogenic effect

Low activity IFN Low activity IFN (high acid content)(high acid content)Large ice crystalsLarge ice crystalsLarge sedimentation rateLarge sedimentation rateHorizontal orientationHorizontal orientationLarger IR emissivityLarger IR emissivityRadar visibleRadar visibleEx: diamond dust (acid)Ex: diamond dust (acid)

deep arctic cirrus deep arctic cirrus (4 (4 -- 10 km deep)10 km deep)

Two Important Climate Feedbacks Two Important Climate Feedbacks are Interlinked during Arctic Winter :are Interlinked during Arctic Winter :

Vertical :Vertical : Acid aerosols alter thin ice cloud Acid aerosols alter thin ice cloud microphysics, enhancing IR cooling and microphysics, enhancing IR cooling and dehydration dehydration lower temperatureslower temperatures

Horizontal :Horizontal : Lower temperatureLower temperature generates generates APE enhancing midAPE enhancing mid--latitude storms which latitude storms which transport aerosols into the Arctic and further transport aerosols into the Arctic and further cools in the cools in the vertical vertical process.process.

“Arctic Thermal Pumping”

Temperature Trend: Temperature Trend: Simulation Simulation vsvs ObservationObservation

Hansen, et al (GISS)

70 year observed trend

Ref.: Pavlovic and Blanchet, 2002

SimulationNARCM + Girard - Curry Cloud

NorilskKola

AVHRR 20 year Trend

CorrelationCorrelation betweenbetweenRelative Relative HumidityHumidity andand

AcidAcid FractionFraction fromfrom AIRS AIRS Data Data andand NARCM NARCM

SimulatedSimulated AerosolsAerosols

Correlation between rw and sulfate ratioin function of temperature

-1

-0,8

-0,6-0,4

-0,2

0

0,2

-33 -30 -27 -24 -21 -18 -15 -12 -9 -6 -3

temperature (oC)

corr

elat

ion

700 mb850 mb925 mb

Ref.: Grenier, Blanchet and Fetzer (2006)

Example: ensemble of 12 January Example: ensemble of 12 January Simulations (perturbed Simulations (perturbed –– reference)reference)

[ Aerosol (µg/m3 ] IWC annomaly

Precipitation annomaly IR down at sfc annomaly (W/m2)

Temperature annomaly °C

Ref.: Stefanof A., 2005 (MSc)Girard E. et al, 2006

Dehydration Efficiency

1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

Years

0

20

40

60

80

Eve

nts

Num ber o f Intense W inte r C yc lones pe r YearsNorthern Hem is phere (Lam bert, 1997)

Observed Trend in the Winter StormsObserved Trend in the Winter StormsNorthern HemisphereNorthern Hemisphere

Model Model StudiesStudiesWe have done We have done several simulationsseveral simulations of this process of this process using the CRCM and CAM models.using the CRCM and CAM models.Results show consistently that Results show consistently that reduction of IFN reduction of IFN activityactivity increase light precipitation, dehydration increase light precipitation, dehydration and cooling efficiencyand cooling efficiency..Efforts are needed to Efforts are needed to improve improve parameterisationparameterisation of of DGF process.DGF process.3D Prognostic precipitation3D Prognostic precipitation fields are requiredfields are requiredCloud resolving simulationsCloud resolving simulations are needed to bridge are needed to bridge scale gaps.scale gaps.Improving the Improving the PBL schemePBL scheme in cold climate is in cold climate is needed needed

SummarySummaryTwo types of thin ice cloudsTwo types of thin ice clouds can occur depending on IFN can occur depending on IFN activity.activity.

DGF can be driven by DGF can be driven by IR coolingIR cooling (PBL) or deep slow (PBL) or deep slow adiabatic ascendadiabatic ascend in decaying low pressure systems entering in decaying low pressure systems entering the Arctic.the Arctic.

TypeType--2 (acidic) 2 (acidic) IRIR-- cools a deep cools a deep tropospherictropospheric layerlayer in 5in 5--8 8 days over 1000days over 1000--3000 km scale. 3000 km scale.

Colder pole fuel intense stormsColder pole fuel intense storms transporting new aerosols transporting new aerosols into the Arctic.into the Arctic.

CloudSat and CALIPSOCloudSat and CALIPSO reveal the complex interactions reveal the complex interactions between aerosols, clouds, precipitation, radiative cooling and between aerosols, clouds, precipitation, radiative cooling and large scale circulation.large scale circulation.

We are developing new We are developing new atmospheric modelatmospheric model to simulate these to simulate these interactions in climate models. interactions in climate models.

«« DGF may be the largest DGF may be the largest man mademan made

cloud seeding experiment cloud seeding experiment and and

weather modification in the weather modification in the world .world .»»

AntarcticaAntarctica EarlyEarly WinterWinterJuneJune 18, 2007 (18, 2007 (lastlast weekweek!)!)

arctic regional climate modelling: gem-arctic, the dgf...

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