APPENDICESAppendix 1: Descriptive statistics

Table 1.1 Candidate characteristics (N=548)N %

Ethnic background- Dutch 477 87.0- Turkish 22 4.0- Moroccan 21 3.8- Surinamese/Antillean 15 2.7- Other non-Western 13 2.4Gender

- Male 340 62.0- Female 208 38.0Party leader

- No 536 97.8- Yes 12 2.2First ethnic minority on the list

- No 508 92.7- Yes 40 7.3Incumbency status

- New candidate 388 70.8- Re-nominated candidate 2012 99 18.1- Incumbent MP 2012 61 11.1

Table 1.2 Summary of the dataCities No. of

neighbourhoodsNo. of polling stations

No. of candidates Total No. of cases

Rotterdam 69 344 x 548 = 188,512Nijmegen 34 78 x 548 = 42,744Dordrecht 44 58 x 548 = 31,784Groningen 49 112 x 548 = 61,376Almere 35 86 x 548 = 47,128Enschede 42 75 x 548 = 41,100Zwolle 37 61 x 548 = 33,428Apeldoorn 48 86 x 548 = 47,128Arnhem 47 64 x 548 = 35,072Amersfoort 53 79 x 548 = 43,292Utrecht 85 147 x 548 = 80,556Amsterdam 228 431 x 548 = 236,188Haarlem 62 72 x 548 = 39,456Zaanstad 30 67 x 548 = 36,716Alphen aan den Rijn 42 58 x 548 = 31,784Leiden 32 40 x 548 = 21,920Zoetermeer 15 57 x 548 = 31,236Eindhoven 51 68 x 548 = 37,264Den Bosch 52 84 x 548 = 46,032Maastricht 34 54 x 548 = 29,592Total 1,089 2,121 x 548 = 1,162,308

1

Table 1.3 Gender of candidates by party and ethnic groupMale Female Total

N % N % N %Artikel 1 Moroccan 1 100.0 0 0.0 1 100.0

Surinamese/Antillean 2 40.0 3 60.0 5 100.0

Other non-Western 1 50.0 1 50.0 2 100.0

Dutch 5 41.7 7 58.3. 12 100.0CDA Turkish 1 100.0 0 0.0 1 100.0

Moroccan 1 100.0 0 0.0 1 100.0

Dutch 27 62.8 16 37.2 43 100.0CU Surinamese/Antillean 1 50.0 1 50.0 2 100.0

Other non-Western 4 100.0 0 0.0 4 100.0

Dutch 26 59.1 18 40.9 44 100.0DENK Turkish 6 66.7 3 33.3 9 100.0

Moroccan 3 100.0 0 0.0 3 100.0

Surinamese/Antillean 0 0.0 2 100.0 2 100.0

Other non-Western 2 100.0 0 0.0 2 100.0

Dutch 0 0.0 2 100.0 2 100.0D66 Turkish 0 0.0 1 100.0 1 100.0

Moroccan 3 60.0 2 40.0 5 100.0

Surinamese/Antillean 1 100.0 0 0.0 1 100.0

Other non-Western 1 100.0 0 0.0 1 100.0

Dutch 25 59.5 17 40.5 42 100.0FvD Surinamese/Antillean 1 100.0 0 0.0 1 100.0

Dutch 23 79.3 6 20.7 29 100.0GL Turkish 1 33.3 2 66.7 3 100.0

Moroccan 1 100.0 0 0.0 1 100.0

Other non-Western 1 100.0 0 0.0 1 100.0

Dutch 25 55.6 20 44.4 45 100.0PvdA Turkish 1 25.0 3 75.0 4 100.0

Moroccan 5 71.4 2 28.6 7 100.0

Surinamese/Antillean 1 33.3 2 66.7 3 100.0

Other non-Western 0 0.0 2 100.0 2 100.0

Dutch 31 52.5 28 47.5 59 100.0PVV Surinamese/Antillean 0 0.0 1 100.0 1 100.0

Dutch 37 75.5 12 24.5 49 100.0SP Turkish 2 66.7 1 33.3 3 100.0

Moroccan 0 0.0 1 100.0 1 100.0

Dutch 24 60.0 16 40.0 40 100.0VVD Turkish 0 0.0 1 100.0 1 100.0

Moroccan 2 100.0 0 0.0 2 100.0

Dutch 50 64.9 27 35.1 77 100.050Plus Other non-Western 0 0.0 1 100.0 1 100.0

Dutch 25 71.4 10 28.6 35 100.0

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Appendix 2: Full models

Table 2.1 Quasi-Binomial Regression models of candidates’ vote share; general ethnic affinity and party effects

Model 3a Model 3bB S.E. B S.E.

Ethnic Minority candidate (Dutch=ref.) -1.316 *** 0.015 -1.314 *** 0.015% ethnic minority population in neighbourhood x ethnic minority candidate for:

- Art 1 0.085 *** 0.006 0.085 *** 0.006- CDA -0.102 *** 0.010 -0.103 *** 0.009- CU 0.050 *** 0.001 0.051 *** 0.001- DENK 0.169 *** 0.012 0.168 *** 0.012- D66 0.014 *** 0.001 0.014 *** 0.001- FvD -0.059 *** 0.013 -0.059 *** 0.013- GL 0.018 *** 0.001 0.017 *** 0.001- PvdA 0.021 *** 0.001 0.021 *** 0.001- PVV -0.132 *** 0.015 -0.133 *** 0.015- SP 0.016 *** 0.001 0.017 *** 0.001- VVD -0.045 *** 0.003 -0.045 *** 0.003- 50Plus -0.063 *** 0.015 -0.064 *** 0.015

Control variablesParty

- Art 1 -10.220 *** 0.052 -10.780 *** 0.079- CDA -8.139 *** 0.015 -7.616 *** 0.030- CU -9.248 *** 0.022 -8.500 *** 0.049- DENK -9.151 *** 0.027 -8.943 *** 0.047- D66 -7.526 *** 0.011 -7.910 *** 0.017- FvD -9.038 *** 0.029 -8.781 *** 0.058- GL -6.910 *** 0.014 -7.188 *** 0.020- PvdA -8.197 *** 0.015 -8.372 *** 0.026- PVV -8.088 *** 0.013 -6.902 *** 0.027- SP -8.385 *** 0.014 -7.459 *** 0.030- VVD -7.362 *** 0.011 -7.699 *** 0.016- 50Plus -9.462 *** 0.023 -8.617 *** 0.051

% ethnic minority population in neighbourhood for:- Art 1 -0.033 *** 0.006 -0.026 *** 0.006- CDA -0.019 *** 0.001 -0.023 *** 0.001- CU -0.014 *** 0.001 -0.020 *** 0.001- DENK -0.119 *** 0.012 -0.122 *** 0.012- D66 -0.009 *** 0.000 -0.007 *** 0.000- FvD -0.007 *** 0.001 -0.008 *** 0.001- GL -0.012 *** 0.001 -0.010 *** 0.001- PvdA -0.001 . 0.001 0.001 0.001- PVV 0.004 *** 0.000 -0.003 *** 0.000- SP 0.001 ** 0.000 -0.005 *** 0.001- VVD -0.016 *** 0.000 -0.012 *** 0.000- 50Plus 0.003 *** 0.001 -0.002 * 0.001

Party leader 4.865 *** 0.009 4.869 *** 0.009First ethnic minority on the list 2.551 *** 0.010 2.551 *** 0.010Renominated candidate from 2012 (new candidate=ref.) 0.384 *** 0.011 0.384 *** 0.011

- Incumbent MP 0.865 *** 0.009 0.866 *** 0.009Socio-economic status neighbourhood for:

- Art 1 0.002 *** 0.000- CDA -0.002 *** 0.000- CU -0.003 *** 0.000- DENK -0.001 *** 0.000- D66 0.001 *** 0.000- FvD -0.001 *** 0.000- GL 0.001 *** 0.000- PvdA 0.001 *** 0.000

3

- PVV -0.005 *** 0.000- SP -0.004 *** 0.000- VVD 0.001 *** 0.000- 50Plus -0.003 *** 0.000

Mosque in neighbourhood for:- Art 1 -0.518 *** 0.062- CDA -0.117 *** 0.030- CU -0.034 0.042- DENK 0.393 *** 0.025- D66 0.113 *** 0.018- FvD -0.099 . 0.057- GL 0.141 *** 0.018- PvdA -0.074 ** 0.027- PVV -0.212 *** 0.021- SP -0.086 *** 0.024- VVD -0.129 *** 0.019- 50Plus -0.187 *** 0.043

N 1,162,308Notes: ***p = 0.000; **p < 0.001; *p < 0.05 . p < 0.10.

4

Table 2.2 Quasi-binomial Regression models of candidates’ vote share; co-ethnic affinity effectsModel 4a

B S.E.Ethnic background (Dutch=ref.)

- Turkish -1.161 *** 0.041- Moroccan -0.078 * 0.035- Surinamese/Antillean -2.293 *** 0.084- Other non-Western -2.215 *** 0.084

% co-ethnics in neighbourhood x Turkish background candidate for:- CDA -0.085 0.060- DENK 0.145 *** 0.006- D66 -0.036 . 0.019- GL 0.045 *** 0.006- PvdA 0.036 *** 0.009- SP 0.077 *** 0.005- VVD 0.035 ** 0.013

% co-ethnics in neighbourhood x Moroccan background candidate for:- Art 1 -0.375 * 0.146- CDA -0.235 *** 0.059- DENK 0.172 *** 0.005- D66 0.031 *** 0.003- PvdA 0.014 ** 0.004- SP -0.325 *** 0.042- VVD -0.197 *** 0.024

% co-ethnics in neighbourhood x Surinamese/Antillean background candidate for:- Art 1 0.131 *** 0.009- CU 0.035 . 0.020- DENK 0.072 *** 0.015- D66 0.049 *** 0.010- FvD 0.008 0.036- PvdA 0.103 *** 0.005- PVV -0.274 *** 0.064

% co-ethnics in neighbourhood x Other non-Western background candidate for- Art 1 0.147 *** 0.011- CU 0.174 *** 0.004- DENK 0.080 *** 0.013- D66 -0.061 * 0.026- GL -0.017 0.013- PvdA 0.087 *** 0.007- 50Plus -0.112 * 0.051

Control variablesParty

- Art 1 -10.550 *** 0.190- CDA -10.280 *** 0.063- CU -9.628 *** 0.075- DENK -7.932 *** 0.043- D66 -8.413 *** 0.033- FvD -9.832 *** 0.113- GL -7.225 *** 0.046- PvdA -8.400 *** 0.038- PVV -7.726 *** 0.040- SP -8.470 *** 0.041- VVD -9.141 *** 0.038- 50Plus -9.165 *** 0.079

% co-ethnics in neighbourhood for:- Art 1 -0.014 *** 0.003- CDA 0.022 *** 0.001- CU 0.002 * 0.001- DENK -0.056 *** 0.004- D66 0.009 *** 0.000- FvD 0.008 *** 0.001- GL 0.000 0.001- PvdA 0.002 *** 0.000- PVV -0.003 *** 0.000- SP 0.002 ** 0.000- VVD 0.019 *** 0.000- 50Plus -0.003 ** 0.001Party leader 4.924 *** 0.012Art 1 x Party leader 2.231 *** 0.202DENK x Party leader -1.023 *** 0.051GL x Party leader -0.758 *** 0.054

5

Art 1 x % co-ethnics in neighbourhood x Surinamese x Party leader -0.015 0.010DENK x % co-ethnics in neighbourhood x Turkish x Party leader 0.043 *** 0.004GL x % co-ethnics in neighbourhood x Moroccan x Party leader 0.009 *** 0.002First ethnic minority on the list 2.596 *** 0.014Renominated candidate from 2012 (new candidate=ref.) 0.402 *** 0.014

- Incumbent MP 0.793 *** 0.014N 1,162,308Notes: ***p = 0.000; **p < 0.001; *p < 0.05 . p < 0.10.

Table 2.3 Quasi-binomial Regression models of candidates’ vote share; co-ethnic affinity & cross-ethnic affinity effects

Model 4b Model 4cDENK PvdA

B S.E. B S.E.Ethnic background

- Dutch -12.786 *** 0.271 -8.282 *** 0.015- Turkish -9.094 *** 0.056 -9.462 *** 0.068- Moroccan -8.246 *** 0.054 -8.107 *** 0.028- Surinamese/Antillean -11.547 *** 0.150 -9.267 *** 0.063- Other non-Western -11.870 *** 0.154 -8.921 *** 0.083

% Turkish in neighbourhood for:- Party leader DENK 0.016 *** 0.004- Dutch background candidate 0.054 . 0.032 -0.008 *** 0.002- Turkish background candidate 0.039 0.032 0.079 *** 0.006- Moroccan background candidate -0.015 0.032 -0.034 *** 0.005- Surinamese/Antillean background candidate -0.018 0.036 0.070 *** 0.006- Other non-Western background candidate 0.063 . 0.033 -0.125 *** 0.023

% Moroccan in neighbourhood for:- Party leader DENK -0.006 . 0.003- Dutch background candidate 0.023 0.028 -0.002 0.001- Turkish background candidate 0.022 0.028 -0.010 0.008- Moroccan background candidate 0.067 * 0.028 0.030 *** 0.003- Surinamese/Antillean background candidate 0.024 0.031 0.016 ** 0.006- Other non-Western background candidate 0.006 0.029 0.072 *** 0.012

Control variablesParty leader 4.558 *** 0.058 5.129 *** 0.016First ethnic minority on the list 3.036 *** 0.052 1.929 *** 0.035Renominated candidate from 2012 (new candidate=ref.) -1.239 *** 0.080 -0.361 *** 0.031

- Incumbent MP 1.174 *** 0.035N 38,178 159,075Notes: ***p = 0.000; **p < 0.001; *p < 0.05 . p < 0.10.

6

Table 2.4 Quasi-binomial Regression models of candidates’ vote share; gender-dependent ethnic affinity effects

Model 5B S.E.

Female (Male=ref.) 1.422 *** 0.258Ethnic background (Dutch=ref.)

- Turkish -0.428 *** 0.030- Moroccan 0.604 *** 0.028- Surinamese/Antillean -1.111 *** 0.060- Other non-Western -1.147 *** 0.059

% co-ethnics in neighbourhood x Turkish background candidate for:- CDA -0.005 0.031- DENK 0.089 *** 0.005- GL 0.055 *** 0.007- PvdA 0.018 0.018- SP 0.145 *** 0.005- VVD 0.004 0.011- DENK x female 0.086 *** 0.005- D66 x female -0.015 0.012- GL x female 0.007 0.008- PvdA x female 0.029 0.019- SP x female -0.083 *** 0.006

% co-ethnics in neighbourhood x Moroccan background candidate for:- Art 1 -0.129 . 0.071- CDA -0.137 *** 0.033- DENK 0.160 *** 0.003- D66 0.063 *** 0.005- PvdA 0.000 0.006- VVD -0.192 *** 0.024- D66 x female -0.134 *** 0.014- PvdA x female 0.011 0.007- SP x female -0.192 *** 0.024

% co-ethnics in neighbourhood x Surinamese/Antillean background candidate for:- Art 1 0.121 *** 0.010- CU 0.109 *** 0.013- D66 0.066 *** 0.006- FvD 0.003 0.025- PvdA 0.085 *** 0.004- Art 1 x female -0.002 0.013- DENK x female 0.043 *** 0.011- CU x female -0.133 *** 0.031- PvdA x female 0.029 *** 0.005- PVV x female -0.159 *** 0.040

% co-ethnics in neighbourhood x Other non-Western background candidate for:- Art 1 0.172 *** 0.015- CU 0.178 *** 0.003- DENK 0.045 *** 0.010- D66 -0.011 0.016- GL 0.058 *** 0.008- Art 1 x female -0.073 *** 0.019- PvdA x female 0.073 *** 0.005- 50Plus x female -0.340 *** 0.046

% co-ethnics in neighbourhood x Dutch background candidate for:- Art 1 x female -0.004 0.006- CDA x female 0.005 *** 0.001- CU x female 0.020 *** 0.002- DENK x female- D66 x % female 0.015 *** 0.001- FvD x female -0.009 ** 0.003- GL x female 0.003 ** 0.001- PvdA x female 0.007 *** 0.001

7

- PVV x female 0.006 *** 0.001- SP x female 0.022 *** 0.001- VVD x female -0.008 *** 0.001- 50 x female 0.004 ** 0.002

Control variablesParty

- Art 1 -11.450 *** 0.195- CDA -10.980 *** 0.048- CU -10.160 *** 0.055- DENK -8.098 *** 0.033- D66 -9.212 *** 0.030- FvD -10.210 *** 0.079- GL -8.382 *** 0.059- PvdA -8.803 *** 0.035- PVV -8.326 *** 0.029- SP -8.879 *** 0.036- VVD -9.863 *** 0.029- 50Plus -10.040 *** 0.060

% co-ethnics in neighbourhood for:- Art 1 -0.009 . 0.005- CDA 0.020 *** 0.001- CU -0.002 ** 0.001- D66 -0.041 *** 0.003- DENK 0.007 *** 0.000- FvD 0.008 *** 0.001- GL -0.005 *** 0.001- PvdA 0.003 *** 0.000- PVV -0.004 *** 0.000- SP -0.005 *** 0.000- VVD 0.019 *** 0.000- 50Plus -0.003 *** 0.001

Female for:- Art 1= ref.- CDA -0.218 0.279- CU -1.528 *** 0.292- DENK -1.591 *** 0.267- D66 -0.802 ** 0.262- FvD 0.400 0.371- GL 0.533 * 0.267- PvdA -1.424 *** 0.261- PVV -1.803 *** 0.277- SP -1.433 *** 0.264- VVD -0.290 0.265- 50Plus 0.638 * 0.288

Party leader 5.295 *** 0.010Art 1 x Party leader 0.162 0.179DENK x Party leader -2.381 *** 0.036GL x Party leader -1.073 *** 0.062Art 1 x % co-ethnics x Party leader -0.008 0.010DENK x % co-ethnics x Party leader 0.083 *** 0.004GL x % co-ethnics x Party leader 0.014 *** 0.001First ethnic minority on the list 1.858 *** 0.011Renominated candidate from 2012 (new candidate=ref.) 0.676 *** 0.010

- Incumbent MP 1.212 *** 0.011N 1,162,308Notes: ***p = 0.000; **p < 0.001; *p < 0.05 . p < 0.10.

8

Appendix 3: Robustness checksAs a robustness check we reran the models using zero-inflated beta regression models. This is very similar to running a beta regression among the sample of observations with a vote share larger than zero that predicts the mean value among these observations and a separate logistic regression (among all observations) predicting a zero-vote share. In the Mu model (beta regression), the candidate vote share ranged from 0.01 to 0.68. In the Nu model (logistic regression) the dependent variable indicates the likelihood to receive no votes in neighbourhoods with a larger ethnic minority population.

9

Table 3.1 Zero-inflated beta regression models of candidates’ vote share; general ethnic affinity effects Model 1 Model 2

Mu (Beta model) Nu (logistic model) Mu (Beta model) Nu (logistic model)B S.E. B S.E. B S.E. B S.E.

Ethnic Minority candidate (Dutch=ref.) -0.398 *** 0.008 0.875 *** 0.017 -0.536 *** 0.011 1.200 *** 0.022Ethnic Minority candidate x % ethnic minorities in neighbourhood 0.006 *** 0.000 -0.025 *** 0.000 0.019 *** 0.001 -0.055 *** 0.001Ethnic Minority candidate x % ethnic minorities in neighbourhood^2 0.000 *** 0.000 0.000 *** 0.000Control variablesParty

- Art 1 -7.656 *** 0.027 4.648 *** 0.050 -7.710 *** 0.027 4.687 *** 0.050- CDA -5.617 *** 0.009 1.986 *** 0.016 -5.620 *** 0.009 1.984 *** 0.016- CU -6.399 *** 0.012 2.569 *** 0.019 -6.402 *** 0.012 2.571 *** 0.019- DENK -6.990 *** 0.017 2.859 *** 0.031 -7.058 *** 0.017 2.925 *** 0.032- D66 -5.263 *** 0.007 1.166 *** 0.013 -5.265 *** 0.007 1.162 *** 0.013- FvD -6.485 *** 0.015 2.535 *** 0.025 -6.487 *** 0.015 2.536 *** 0.025- GL -5.252 *** 0.008 1.035 *** 0.012 -5.252 *** 0.008 1.033 *** 0.012- PvdA -5.701 *** 0.008 2.127 *** 0.013 -5.707 *** 0.008 2.131 *** 0.014- PVV -5.484 *** 0.009 3.198 *** 0.021 -5.487 *** 0.009 3.200 *** 0.021- SP -5.746 *** 0.009 2.212 *** 0.016 -5.751 *** 0.009 2.211 *** 0.016- VVD -5.108 *** 0.007 2.177 *** 0.013 -5.109 *** 0.007 2.176 *** 0.013- 50Plus -6.530 *** 0.013 2.501 *** 0.022 -6.534 *** 0.013 2.502 *** 0.022

% ethnic minority population in neighbourhood for:- Art 1 0.025 *** 0.001 -0.019 *** 0.001 0.026 *** 0.001 -0.020 *** 0.001- CDA -0.012 *** 0.000 0.018 *** 0.001 -0.012 *** 0.000 0.019 *** 0.001- CU -0.005 *** 0.000 0.009 *** 0.001 -0.005 *** 0.000 0.009 *** 0.001- DENK 0.028 *** 0.000 -0.021 *** 0.001 0.030 *** 0.000 -0.023 *** 0.001- D66 -0.004 *** 0.000 0.011 *** 0.000 -0.004 *** 0.000 0.011 *** 0.000- FvD -0.006 *** 0.001 0.008 *** 0.001 -0.006 *** 0.001 0.008 *** 0.001- GL -0.002 *** 0.000 0.004 *** 0.000 -0.002 *** 0.000 0.004 *** 0.000- PvdA 0.000 0.000 0.003 *** 0.000 0.001 . 0.000 0.003 *** 0.000- PVV 0.004 *** 0.000 0.001 . 0.001 0.004 *** 0.000 0.001 . 0.001- SP 0.002 *** 0.000 -0.003 *** 0.001 0.002 *** 0.000 -0.002 *** 0.001- VVD -0.008 *** 0.000 0.012 *** 0.000 -0.008 *** 0.000 0.012 *** 0.000- 50Plus 0.003 *** 0.000 0.003 *** 0.001 0.003 *** 0.000 0.003 *** 0.001

Party leader 2.727 *** 0.005 -5.903 *** 0.046 2.729 *** 0.005 -5.932 *** 0.046First ethnic minority on the list 0.682 *** 0.005 -1.862 *** 0.011 0.681 *** 0.005 -1.865 *** 0.011Renominated candidate from 2012 (new candidate=ref.) 0.138 *** 0.006 -0.275 *** 0.008 0.138 *** 0.006 -0.275 *** 0.008

- Incumbent MP 0.267 *** 0.005 -1.613 *** 0.009 0.269 *** 0.005 -1.614 *** 0.009N 1,162,308 1,162,308

Notes: ***p = 0.000; **p < 0.001; *p < 0.05 . p < 0.10.

10

Table 3.2 Zero-inflated beta regression model of candidates’ vote share; general ethnic affinity and party effects

Model 3Mu (Beta model) Nu (logistic model)

B S.E. B S.E.Ethnic minority background (Dutch=ref.) -0.381 *** 0.008 0.978 *** 0.018% ethnic minority population in neighbourhoodx ethnic minority candidate for:

- Art 1 -0.005 *** 0.001 -0.032 *** 0.002- CDA -0.001 0.002 0.047 *** 0.003- CU 0.031 *** 0.001 -0.034 *** 0.001- DENK 0.016 *** 0.002 -0.106 *** 0.003- D66 -0.001 * 0.000 -0.015 *** 0.001- FvD 0.019 *** 0.003 0.036 *** 0.004- GL 0.011 *** 0.000 -0.048 *** 0.001- PvdA 0.008 *** 0.000 -0.032 *** 0.001- PVV -0.015 *** 0.003 0.024 *** 0.004- SP 0.003 *** 0.001 -0.037 *** 0.001- VVD -0.017 *** 0.001 -0.009 *** 0.001- 50Plus 0.009 ** 0.003 0.057 *** 0.005

Control variablesParty

- Art 1 -7.682 *** 0.027 4.670 *** 0.050- CDA -5.617 *** 0.009 1.976 *** 0.016- CU -6.371 *** 0.012 2.566 *** 0.019- DENK -7.011 *** 0.017 2.810 *** 0.033- D66 -5.273 *** 0.007 1.175 *** 0.013- FvD -6.502 *** 0.015 2.564 *** 0.025- GL -5.254 *** 0.008 1.044 *** 0.012- PvdA -5.713 *** 0.008 2.124 *** 0.014- PVV -5.484 *** 0.009 3.196 *** 0.021- SP -5.753 *** 0.009 2.218 *** 0.017- VVD -5.107 *** 0.007 2.173 *** 0.013- 50Plus -6.532 *** 0.013 2.515 *** 0.022

% ethnic minority population in neighbourhood for:- Art 1 0.035 *** 0.001 -0.014 *** 0.002- CDA -0.012 *** 0.000 0.014 *** 0.001- CU -0.009 *** 0.000 0.012 *** 0.001- DENK 0.018 *** 0.002 0.055 *** 0.004- D66 -0.003 *** 0.000 0.009 *** 0.000- FvD -0.006 *** 0.001 0.004 *** 0.001- GL -0.004 *** 0.000 0.006 *** 0.000- PvdA 0.000 0.000 0.005 *** 0.001- PVV 0.004 *** 0.000 0.000 0.001- SP 0.003 *** 0.000 -0.001 * 0.001- VVD -0.007 *** 0.000 0.011 *** 0.000- 50Plus 0.003 *** 0.000 0.000 0.001

Party leader v *** 0.005 -5.961 *** 0.047First ethnic minority on the list 0.716 *** 0.005 -2.076 *** 0.012Renominated candidate from 2012 (new candidate=ref.) 0.140 *** 0.006 -0.288 *** 0.008

- Incumbent MP 0.250 *** 0.005 -1.558 *** 0.009N 1,162,308

Notes: ***p = 0.000; **p < 0.001; *p < 0.05 . p < 0.10.

11

Table 3.3 Zero-inflated beta regression model of candidates’ vote share; co-ethnic affinity effectsModel 4

Mu (Beta model) Nu (logistic model)B S.E. B S.E.

Ethnic background (Dutch=ref.)- Turkish -0.487 *** 0.015 0.141 *** 0.026- Moroccan -0.111 *** 0.015 -0.102 *** 0.026- Surinamese/Antillean -0.429 *** 0.027 1.779 *** 0.039- Other non-Western -0.536 *** 0.030 1.905 *** 0.045

% co-ethnics in neighbourhood xTurkish background candidate for:

- CDA 0.033 0.009 0.102 *** 0.033- DENK 0.045 *** 0.002 -0.159 *** 0.045- D66 -0.020 *** 0.005 0.108 *** -0.020- GL 0.011 *** 0.002 -0.128 *** 0.011- PvdA 0.013 *** 0.003 -0.035 *** 0.013- SP 0.027 *** 0.002 -0.206 *** 0.027- VVD -0.002 0.004 -0.078 *** -0.002

% co-ethnics in neighbourhood xMoroccan background candidate for:

- Art 1 -0.032 ** 0.011 0.256 *** -0.032- CDA 0.007 0.008 0.102 *** 0.007- DENK 0.077 *** 0.001 -0.238 *** 0.077- D66 0.012 *** 0.001 -0.093 *** 0.012- PvdA 0.012 *** 0.002 -0.050 *** 0.012- SP -0.044 *** 0.004 0.093 *** -0.044- VVD -0.024 *** 0.003 0.078 *** -0.024

% co-ethnics in neighbourhood xSurinamese/Antillean background candidate for:

- Art 1 0.020 *** 0.003 -0.151 *** 0.020- CU 0.045 *** 0.005 -0.002 0.045- DENK -0.006 . 0.004 -0.127 *** -0.006- D66 -0.015 *** 0.003 -0.048 *** -0.015- FvD 0.062 *** 0.008 0.013 0.062- PvdA 0.023 *** 0.002 -0.209 *** 0.023- PVV -0.066 *** 0.008 0.009 -0.066

% co-ethnics in neighbourhood xOther non-Western background candidate for

- Art 1 0.012 ** 0.004 -0.152 *** 0.012- CU 0.087 *** 0.002 -0.190 *** 0.087- DENK 0.012 ** 0.004 -0.127 *** 0.012- D66 -0.026 *** 0.006 0.062 *** -0.026- GL -0.038 *** 0.004 -0.008 -0.038- PvdA 0.001 0.003 -0.058 *** 0.001- 50Plus 0.025 * 0.010 0.101 *** 0.025

Control variablesParty

- Art 1 -5.594 *** 0.053 4.146 *** 0.062- CDA -6.794 *** 0.026 4.346 *** 0.043- CU -6.645 *** 0.027 2.719 *** 0.043- DENK -5.660 *** 0.019 2.772 *** 0.032- D66 -5.724 *** 0.014 2.067 *** 0.027- FvD -7.153 *** 0.041 3.308 *** 0.066- GL -5.399 *** 0.017 0.999 *** 0.027- PvdA -5.709 *** 0.015 2.483 *** 0.026- PVV -5.156 *** 0.021 3.363 *** 0.053- SP -5.705 *** 0.017 2.763 *** 0.034- VVD -5.971 *** 0.016 3.568 *** 0.031- 50Plus -6.282 *** 0.032 2.763 *** 0.060

% co-ethnics in neighbourhood for:- Art 1 -0.008 *** 0.001 0.007 *** 0.001- CDA 0.012 *** 0.000 -0.026 *** 0.001- CU 0.000 0.000 0.001 * 0.001- DENK -0.007 *** 0.001 0.032 *** 0.001- D66 0.005 *** 0.000 -0.009 *** 0.000- FvD 0.005 *** 0.001 -0.008 *** 0.001- GL 0.000 0.000 0.002 *** 0.000

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- PvdA -0.001 *** 0.000 -0.003 *** 0.000- PVV -0.003 *** 0.000 -0.002 *** 0.001- SP 0.000 0.000 -0.007 *** 0.000- VVD 0.009 *** 0.000 -0.015 *** 0.000- 50Plus -0.003 0.000 -0.003 *** 0.001

Party leader 2.831 *** 0.005 -7.562 *** 0.142Art 1 x Party leader -2.159 *** 0.054 2.095 *** 0.186DENK x Party leader -1.352 *** 0.024 5.647 *** 0.179

GL x Party leader 0.139 *** 0.021 -26.350 500800.000Art 1 x% co-ethnics in neighbourhood x Surinamese x Party leader 0.076 *** 0.004 -0.365 *** 0.035DENK x % co-ethnics in neighbourhood x Turkish x Party leader 0.094 *** 0.002 -1.041 *** 0.099GL x % co-ethnics in neighbourhood x Moroccan x Party leader 0.011 *** 0.001 -0.002 64270.000First ethnic minority on the list 0.837 *** 0.005 -2.560 *** 0.014Renominated candidate from 2012 (new candidate=ref.) 0.118 *** 0.006 -0.292 *** 0.008

- Incumbent MP 0.167 *** 0.005 -1.476 *** 0.009N 1,162,308Notes: ***p = 0.000; **p < 0.001; *p < 0.05 . p < 0.10.

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Table 3.4 Zero-inflated beta regression model of candidates’ vote share; gender-dependent ethnic affinity effects

Model 5Mu (Beta model) Nu (logistic model)

B S.E. B S.E.Female (Male=ref.) 0.009 0.100 -2.424 *** 0.119Ethnic background (Dutch=ref.)

- Turkish -0.329 *** 0.016 0.357 *** 0.027- Moroccan 0.076 *** 0.015 -0.436 *** 0.029- Surinamese/Antillean -0.325 *** 0.028 1.421 *** 0.041- Other non-Western -0.341 *** 0.032 1.985 *** 0.048

% co-ethnics in neighbourhood xTurkish background candidate for:

- CDA 0.040 *** 0.009 0.013 0.013- DENK 0.039 *** 0.003 -0.159 *** 0.005- GL 0.002 0.004 -0.069 *** 0.009- PvdA 0.035 *** 0.006 -0.075 *** 0.009- SP 0.039 *** 0.003 -0.172 *** 0.007- VVD -0.023 *** 0.005 0.002 0.008- DENK x female 0.011 ** 0.004 -0.054 *** 0.007- D66 x female -0.018 *** 0.005 0.112 *** 0.009- GL x female 0.012 ** 0.005 -0.033 ** 0.011- PvdA x female -0.027 *** 0.007 0.031 ** 0.010- SP x female -0.010 * 0.004 -0.040 * 0.018

% co-ethnics in neighbourhood xMoroccan background candidate for:

- Art 1 -0.045 *** 0.011 0.121 *** 0.025- CDA 0.012 0.008 0.098 *** 0.013- DENK 0.082 *** 0.001 -0.239 *** 0.006- D66 0.015 *** 0.002 -0.076 *** 0.004- PvdA 0.017 *** 0.003 -0.048 *** 0.003- VVD -0.026 *** 0.003 0.043 *** 0.006- D66 x female -0.005 . 0.003 -0.110 *** 0.012- PvdA x female -0.010 ** 0.003 0.004 0.007- SP x female -0.029 *** 0.005 0.030 *** 0.008

% co-ethnics in neighbourhood xSurinamese/Antillean background candidate for:

- Art 1 0.007 0.004 -0.149 *** 0.007- CU 0.075 *** 0.006 -0.083 *** 0.008- D66 -0.018 *** 0.004 -0.072 *** 0.006- FvD 0.070 *** 0.008 0.009 0.011- PvdA 0.013 *** 0.003 -0.127 *** 0.007- Art 1 x female 0.016 * 0.007 0.037 *** 0.009- DENK x female -0.022 *** 0.004 -0.083 *** 0.006- CU x female -0.079 *** 0.010 0.054 *** 0.013- PvdA x female 0.028 *** 0.004 -0.113 *** 0.009- PVV x female -0.015 . 0.008 0.037 ** 0.014

% co-ethnics in neighbourhood xOther non-Western background candidate for:

- Art 1 0.032 *** 0.009 -0.290 *** 0.011- CU 0.090 *** 0.002 -0.149 *** 0.005- DENK 0.014 *** 0.004 -0.158 *** 0.006- D66 -0.040 *** 0.006 -0.006 0.008- GL -0.009 * 0.004 -0.116 *** 0.007- Artikel 1 x female -0.043 *** 0.011 0.271 *** 0.014- PvdA x female -0.011 ** 0.004 -0.042 *** 0.006- 50Plus x female -0.045 *** 0.011 0.163 *** 0.017

% co-ethnics in neighbourhood xDutch background candidate for:

- Art 1 x female 1.084 *** 0.115 0.999 *** 0.150- CDA x female 0.636 *** 0.118 4.797 *** 0.151- CU x female 0.310 ** 0.107 1.783 *** 0.129

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- DENK x female -0.124 0.103 1.517 *** 0.129- D66 x % female 2.015 *** 0.150 0.773 *** 0.186- FvD x female 0.803 *** 0.105 0.201 0.129- GL x female 0.025 0.103 1.905 *** 0.125- PvdA x female -0.773 *** 0.115 2.134 *** 0.161- PVV x female -0.524 *** 0.105 4.216 *** 0.135- SP x female 0.236 * 0.105 0.261 * 0.131- VVD x female 0.857 *** 0.120 1.222 *** 0.174- 50 x female 1.084 *** 0.115 0.999 *** 0.150

Control variablesParty

- Art 1 -5.820 *** 0.081 5.257 *** 0.088- CDA -7.267 *** 0.030 5.037 *** 0.054- CU -6.938 *** 0.031 1.924 *** 0.052- DENK -5.972 *** 0.020 3.071 *** 0.037- D66 -5.896 *** 0.019 2.761 *** 0.037- FvD -7.558 *** 0.044 3.792 *** 0.078- GL -6.060 *** 0.027 2.199 *** 0.041- PvdA -5.967 *** 0.021 2.954 *** 0.037- PVV -5.161 *** 0.022 3.731 *** 0.077- SP -5.614 *** 0.022 1.770 *** 0.045- VVD -6.302 *** 0.019 4.790 *** 0.044- 50Plus -6.705 *** 0.039 3.426 *** 0.099

% co-ethnics in neighbourhood for:- Art 1 0.000 0.002 0.000 0.002- CDA 0.013 *** 0.000 -0.029 *** 0.001- CU -0.002 *** 0.000 0.018 *** 0.001- DENK -0.009 *** 0.001 0.037 *** 0.001- D66 0.005 *** 0.000 -0.008 *** 0.000- FvD 0.005 *** 0.001 -0.009 *** 0.001- GL 0.004 *** 0.000 0.001 * 0.001- PvdA -0.002 *** 0.000 0.001 ** 0.000- PVV -0.004 *** 0.000 0.000 0.001- SP -0.005 *** 0.000 0.015 *** 0.001- VVD 0.013 *** 0.000 -0.023 *** 0.001- 50Plus -0.003 *** 0.000 -0.004 *** 0.001

Gender x % co-ethnics in the neighbourhoodFemale for:

- Art 1= ref. -0.007 ** 0.002 0.023 *** 0.002- CDA -0.007 *** 0.001 0.008 *** 0.001- CU 0.006 *** 0.001 -0.039 *** 0.001- DENK 0.003 *** 0.000 -0.008 *** 0.001- D66 -0.007 *** 0.001 0.005 ** 0.002- FvD -0.006 *** 0.000 0.004 *** 0.001- GL 0.006 *** 0.000 -0.009 *** 0.001- PvdA 0.005 *** 0.001 -0.009 0.001- PVV 0.012 *** 0.000 -0.039 *** 0.001- SP -0.008 *** 0.000 0.014 *** 0.001- VVD 0.003 *** 0.001 0.001 0.002- 50Plus -0.007 ** 0.002 0.023 *** 0.002

Party leader 3.070 *** 0.005 -7.992 *** 0.142Art 1 x Party leader -2.324 *** 0.067 4.196 *** 0.194DENK x Party leader -1.456 *** 0.026 5.892 *** 0.180GL x Party leader 0.369 *** 0.030 -24.460 184200.000Art 1 x % co-ethnics x Party leader 0.066 *** 0.005 -0.397 *** 0.035DENK x % co-ethnics x Party leader 0.102 *** 0.002 -1.046 *** 0.099GL x % co-ethnics x Party leader 0.007 *** 0.001 -0.001 23640.000First ethnic minority on the list 0.894 *** 0.006 -2.608 *** 0.016Renominated candidate from 2012 (new candidate=ref.) 0.175 *** 0.006 -0.550 *** 0.008

- Incumbent MP 0.169 *** 0.006 -1.806 *** 0.010N 1,162,308

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Notes: ***p = 0.000; **p < 0.001; *p < 0.05 . p < 0.10.

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