ASB/BNPP Pantropic Analysis

Kate SebastianIFPRI

• Stratification of the pan-tropics

• A framework and a collection of databases for broadly identifying critical or priority areas and extrapolating research findings

• Improve the spatial characterization of the focus area in terms of …

• Biodiversity-rich habitats• Physical hydrology• Human population• Forest transition areas

Phase I Results

Phase II Activities

Climate based (AEZ) Stratification

Warm humid and subhumid tropics

ASB site locations#S

Warm subhumid tropicsWarm humid tropics

Source: IFPRI (2001) based on FAO/IIASA GAEZ Database (1999).

What defines

the limits of the

pantropic focus area?

Terrestrial Biomes by Realm

Source: WWF Global 200 Ecoregions (WWF 2001).Notes: The Biomes displayed are the biomes that are present in the warm humid and subhumid tropics.

ASB site locations#S

Terrestrial BiomesTropical and Subtropical Moist Broadleaf ForestsTropical and Subtropical Dry and Monsoon Broadleaf Forests

Focus areaDividing line between humid and subhumid tropics

Tropical and Subtropical Coniferous ForestsTropical and Subtropical Grasslands, Savannas & ShrublandsFlooded Grasslands & Savannas

Neotropical

AfrotropicalIndomalay

Australasia

Biodiversity based Strati-fication

WWF

Terrestrial

Ecoregions

Realms (8)

Biomes (14)

Ecoregions (220)

Forest Biomes by Realm

Source: WWF Global 200 Ecoregions (WWF 2001).Notes: The Biomes displayed are only forest biomes that are present in the warm humid and subhumid tropics.

Terrestrial Forest BiomesTropical and Subtropical Moist Broadleaf ForestsTropical and Subtropical Dry and Monsoon Broadleaf Forests

Focus areaDividing line between humid and subhumid tropics

ASB site locations#S

Neotropical

AfrotropicalIndomalay

Australasia

Why are these

different?

What did/can we learn from these stratifications and other global datasets?

What share of the tropics is in the climate derived focus area?

Area Area share Population Pop share(000 sq km) (percent) (000 people) (percent)

Humid 14,343 29.7% 548,168 28.4% Warm 13,203 92.1% 444,448 81.1% Moderately cool / cool / cold 1,139 7.9% 103,720 18.9%

Subhumid 12,053 24.9% 747,046 38.7% Warm 10,838 89.9% 641,263 85.8% Moderately cool / cool / cold 1,214 10.1% 105,783 14.2%

Arid / Semi-arid 21,942 45.4% 632,875 32.8%

Total tropics 48,338 100.0% 1,928,089 100.0%

Focus Area 24,042 49.7% 1,085,711 56.3%

Tropics

How many people live in the biodiversity derived focus area?

Tropical and Subtropical

Moist Broadleaf

Forest

Tropical and Subtropical Dry

Broadleaf Forest

Tropical and Subtropical

Moist Broadleaf

Forest

Tropical and Subtropical Dry

Broadleaf Forest

Central America & the Caribbean Warm humid tropics 15,921 3,111 1.9 0.4 Warm subhumid tropics 11,412 11,263 1.3 1.3

Total 27,333 14,374 3.2 1.7

South America Warm humid tropics 37,827 2,707 4.4 0.3 Warm subhumid tropics 26,498 3,631 3.1 0.4

Total 64,325 6,338 7.5 0.7

Sub-Saharan Africa Warm humid tropics 59,869 213 7.0 0.0 Warm subhumid tropics 26,290 782 3.1 0.1

Total 86,159 995 10.1 0.1

Insular Southeast Asia Warm humid tropics 170,796 5,139 19.9 0.6 Warm subhumid tropics 23,873 15,490 2.8 1.8

Total 194,669 20,629 22.7 2.4

Mainland Asia Warm humid tropics 53,381 26,176 6.2 3.1 Warm subhumid tropics 103,511 258,793 12.1 30.2

Total 156,892 284,970 18.3 33.3

(000 people) (share of focus area - percent)

Population for the pantropic focus area

WarmTropics:

1.1 billion

529.3 million

Phase II : Improve the spatial characterization of the focus area and define critical areas in

terms of …

•Biodiversity-rich habitats•Physical hydrology•Human population•Forest transition areas

Global 200 EcoregionsWithin moist broadleaf forest biome

by biogeographical realm

Dividing line between humid and subhumid tropicsFocus area

Source: WWF Global 200 Ecoregions (WWF 2001).

ASB site locations#S

Each polygon represents a Global 200 ecoregion of which any portion falls within the tropics focus area.

Critical Areas

based on potential threats to biodiversit

y

How much of the focus area is considered of biodiversity

importance?

Total AEZFocus Area

Global 200* Total Area

Global 200* Area within focus region

Share of focus area in Global 200*

Share of Global 200* in focus area

(sq km) (sq km) (sq km)

Central America & Caribbean 867,212 315,483 89,294 10.3% 28.3%South America 10,511,001 6,686,896 5,313,585 50.6% 79.5%Sub-Saharan Africa 7,915,363 2,797,917 2,371,069 30.0% 84.7%Mainland Asia 2,261,473 3,120,785 1,352,313 59.8% 43.3%Insular SE Asia 2,319,902 1,677,802 1,616,155 69.7% 96.3%Other 77,751 37,199 23,700 30.5% 63.7%

Total 23,952,702 14,636,082 10,766,116 44.9% 73.6%

* includes only those Global 200 ecoregions that coincide with the focus region

Where are the ASB sites located in relation to the Global 200 Ecoregions &

Clusters of ASB sites Global 200 Ecoregion BDI*Current Status Threat

Future Status

Priority Status Global Status

Mindinao_Phillipines Philippines moist forests Highest Critical - Critical HighestCritical or Endangered

Yurimaguas_Peru Napo moist forests Highest - - - HighestCritical or Endangered

Peru 08 S: 74-75 E Southwestern Amazonian moist forests Highest - -Relatively Intact Medium

Relatively Sta- ble or Intact

Indonesia 01 S: 101-102 E Sumatran Islands lowland and montane forests Highest Endangered - Critical HighestCritical or Endangered

Indonesia 04 S: 104-105 E Sumatran Islands lowland and montane forests Highest Endangered - Critical HighestCritical or Endangered

Brazil 10 S: 61-62 W Southwestern Amazonian moist forests High - -Relatively Stable Medium Vulnerable

Brazil 09 S: 66 W Southwestern Amazonian moist forests Highest - -Relatively Stable Medium Vulnerable

Brazil 10 S: 67 W Freshwater - Amazon River and Highest - - - Highest Vulnerable

Cameroon 03 N: 11 E Congolian Coastal Forests HighestRelatively Stable Medium Vulnerable Highest Vulnerable

Cameroon 02 S: 11 E Congolian Coastal Forests HighestRelatively Stable Medium Vulnerable Highest Vulnerable

Cameroon 04 S: 11 E Congolian Coastal Forests HighestRelatively Stable Medium Vulnerable Highest Vulnerable

Mae_Chaem_Thailand Kayah-Karen/Tenasserim moist forests HighestRelatively Intact -

Relatively Intact Medium

Relatively Sta- ble or Intact

*BDI - Biological Distiveness Index

Note: All of the ASB sites are located in the Tropical and Subtropical Moist Broadleaf Forests Biome

Biological Distinctiveness Index

What do the Global 200 characteristics tell us about biodiversity?

Dividing line between humid and subhumid tropicsFocus area

ASB site locations#S

Land Cover ClassCroplandCropland with forestCropland with grasslandCropland/Forest mosaicCropland/Other mosaicForestGrasslandOtherNon-vegetatedInland Water

Source: IFPRI reclassification of SLCR classes from Global Land CoverClassification Database (GLCCD – USGS/EDC 2000).Source: Sebastian 2001.

Does land cover help

us understand patterns

of conversion

?

What is the land cover for the pantropics by region by rainfall?

Land Cover for the Warm Sub-humid Tropics

0 20 40 60 80 100

Mesoamerica &Caribbean

South America

Sub-SaharanAfrica

Mainland Asia

Insular SE Asia

share (percent)

Cropland

Pasture

Cropland / PasturemosaicAg / Forest mosaic

Ag / Other Mosaic

Forest

Grassland

Other

Cropland

Pasture

Cropland / PasturemosaicAg / Forest mosaic

Ag / Other Mosaic

Forest

Grassland

Other

Cropland

Pasture

Cropland / PasturemosaicAg / Forest mosaic

Ag / Other Mosaic

Forest

Grassland

Other

Cropland

Pasture

Cropland / PasturemosaicAg / Forest mosaic

Ag / Other Mosaic

Forest

Grassland

Other

Land Cover for the Warm Humid Tropics

0 20 40 60 80 100

Mesoamerica &Caribbean

South America

Sub-SaharanAfrica

Mainland Asia

Insular SE Asia

share (percent)

Cropland

Pasture

Cropland / Pasture mosaic

Ag / Forest mosaic

Ag / Other Mosaic

Forest

Grassland

Other

What is the land cover for the ‘target’ biome?TROPICAL AND SUBTROPICAL MOIST BROADLEAF FOREST BIOME

AREA

Land Cover Type Total

Central America & Caribbean

South America

Sub-Saharan Africa

Mainland Asia

Insular Southeast

Asia

Cropland 857,681 61,765 23,868 154,281 261,513 356,254Pasture 6,640 6,640 0 0 0 0Cropland / Pasture mosaic 79,908 3,680 28,710 45,634 1,632 252Agriculture / Forest mosaic 1,179,195 55,123 423,126 356,964 76,876 267,106Agriculture / Other mosaic 1,038,332 49,035 436,546 250,618 141,737 160,396Forest 9,882,330 338,734 5,801,476 1,758,748 716,445 1,266,927Grassland, Savanna, Shrubland 1,306,263 46,139 429,251 648,972 22,840 159,061Other 53,226 2,850 20,149 28,922 1,275 30

14,403,575 563,966 7,163,126 3,244,139 1,222,318 2,210,026

SHARECropland 6.0 11.0 0.3 4.8 21.4 16.1Pasture 0.0 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Cropland / Pasture mosaic 0.6 0.7 0.4 1.4 0.1 0.0Agriculture / Forest mosaic 8.2 9.8 5.9 11.0 6.3 12.1Agriculture / Other mosaic 7.2 8.7 6.1 7.7 11.6 7.3Forest 68.6 60.1 81.0 54.2 58.6 57.3Grassland, Savanna, Shrubland 9.1 8.2 6.0 20.0 1.9 7.2Other 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.9 0.1 0.0

100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Region

(square kilometers)

Can we understand the extent of forest conversion?

Land CoverAgricultureForest

Other

Forest / Ag mosaicForest margin areasAg / other margin areas

Source: IFPRI reclassification of SLCR classes from Global Land Cover Classification Database (GLCCD – USGS/EDC 2000).

Can we define

transition areas using coarse

resolution satellite data?

Hydro1k Basins Warm humid and subhumid tropics

Source: Hydro1k (USGS EDC 2001).

Focus areaDividing line between humid and subhumid tropics

Each polygon represents a watershed (based onLevel 1 of the Hydro1k Database) of which any

portion falls within the tropics focus area.

ASB site locations#S

Hydro-logical

function:

Basin extent

Terrain TypeWarm humid and subhumid tropics

Dividing line between humid and subhumid tropics

ASB site locations#S

Focus area

Source: A. Nelson, World Bank (2001).

plainsmid-alt plainshigh alt plainslowlands & platformslow/mid plateaushills / rugged lowlands

low mid mountainshigh plateaushigh mountains

Terrain typeLower

Upper

Roughness indicator

Basins by Terrain typeWarm humid and subhumid tropics

Source: Hydro1k – USGS EDC 2001; Terrain type: A. Nelson – World Bank (2001).Note: The shading differentiates between the upper and lower catchments of the basins.

Dividing line between humid and subhumid tropicsFocus area

ASB site locations#S

Upper and lower

catchments

Share of Basin Area by Terrain Type

0

20

40

60

80

100

Lower

Upper

Mouth of the Amazon Andes – down to west coast

Critical Hydrological Function

• Potential negative impacts on the flood regimes around major urban areas, based on..

Watersheds (nested within Basins)

Urban population by watershed

Number of cities in each watershed

Each polygon represents a watershed (based onLevel 2 of the Hydro1k Database) of which any portion falls within the tropics focus area.

Dividing line between humid and subhumid tropicsFocus area

$T Cities with >= 500,000 peopleASB site locations#S

South America

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000

Urban Population (000s)

Are

a (0

00 s

q k

m)

Latin American WatershedsWarm humid and subhumid tropics

Administrative density surface – no detail in urban

areas

Combined urban & administrative density surface

Improved dataset for understanding extent and density of human settlements

Comments• Useful to select characterization

variables that are hierarchical (e.g., basins/ watersheds, biomes/ecoregions, LCCS)

• Need to assess better what (if any) hydrological functions can be represented at this scale

• Need to integrate pan-tropic analysis with sub-regional studies (Mesoamerica, Mekong) to address some of these questions and comments

Questions

• Are there better variables/approaches we could use in the stratification or in the identification of critical areas?

• Can this scale of analysis be useful in linking cross-site or sub-regional studies?

• How will we successfully integrate across teams?