asia pacific energy research centre · (source) asia pacific energy research centre (2006), “apec...

Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre

APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook 2006

APERC Mini-Workshop at the EWG32 Yuzhno Sakhalinsk, Russia

5 October 2006

Asia Pacific Energy Research CentreVice PresidentYonghun Jung

Contents

Outlook of Total Primary Energy DemandSectoral Contributions to the Incremental Growth by SourceDrivers for Energy DemandFinal Energy DemandDemand and Production of Oil, Coal and Natural Gas in APEC

Increasing Oil Import DependencyTight Balance between Coal Demand and its SupplyIncreasing LNG Imports

Expansion of Nuclear EnergyPower GenerationInvestmentOutlook of CO2 EmissionsImplications

(Source) Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre (2006), “APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook”

Oil 1.7% p.a.

Coal 2.8% p.a.

Natural Gas

1.8 % p.a.

Hydro 2.0 % p.a.

Nuclear 1.9 % p.a.

Biomass and New

Energy 0.9 % p.a.

APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

1980 1990 2002 2005 2010 2020 2030

MTO

E

Coal Oil Gas Hydro Nuclear NRE

Sectoral Contributions to the Incremental Growth by Source in APEC (2002-2030)


-100 200 500 800 1100 1400 1700

Coal

Oil

Gas

NRE

Heat(Unit: MTOE )

P&H Generation Oil Refining IndustryTransport Commercial Residential

The power sector to lead coal demand, the transport sector to drive oil demand, and the power and industry sectors to increase natural gas demand

Drivers for the APEC Energy Demand

Income GrowthGDP per capita will grow at an annual rate of 3.5 percent.

UrbanisationBy 2030, share of urban population will reach 68 percent of the total from 52 percent in 2003.

26 million people per year will move from rural to urban cities.

IndustrialisationIndustry value added will grow by 4.5 percent per year, while GDP will grow by 4.1 percent per year.

(Source) Blackwell (2005)-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

N. A

mer

ica

L. A

mer

ica

NE A

sia

SE A

sia

Oce

ania

Chi

na

Russ

ia

OEC

D Eu

rope

Non-

OEC

D Eu

rope

CIS/

FSU

Mid

dle

East

Afr

ica

Oth

ers

Thou

sand

Bar

rels

per

Day

APEC

APEC economies accounted for 90

percent of the world’s increment of oil

demand (2000-2004).

Growth of Oil Demand (2000-2004)

Income Growth and Fast Pace of Motorisation: Passenger Vehicle per 1,000 Population (1980-2030)


1

10

100

1000

0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000

GDP per Capita (2000 US$ PPP)

Pass

enge

r Veh

ilces

per

1,0

00 P

opul

atio

n(L

ogar

ithm

ic S

cale

)

AUSBDCDACHLPRCINAJPNROKMASMEXNZPERPRUSSINCTTHAVNUSA

USA

SIN

VN

PRC

CHLCT

CDANZ

BDROK

RUSJPNMAS

THA

MEX

INA PE

RP

Urbanisation and Residential Energy Demand in the Selected APEC Economies

Urban and Rural Residential Electricity Demand Per Person

Urbanisation

2003 2030 2003 2030

N. America 261 354 80% 87%

L. America 112 160 76% 84%

NEA Asia 146 159 71% 78%

SEA Asia 210 389 44% 63%

Oceania 22 29 76% 77%

China 504 878 39% 61%

Russia 105 94 73% 78%

APEC 1,360 2,063 52% 68%

Urban Population(Millions)

Share of UrbanPopulation

(Source) United Nations (2003), “Urban and Rural Areas” (Source) APERC Internal Database

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

China (2003) Philippines(1995)

Thailand (2003)

Res

iden

tial e

lect

ricity

dem

and

(kW

h pe

r per

son)

Urban

Rural

Urban

Rural

Urban

Rural

Share of Sectoral Value Added by Region (2002 and 2030)

Increasing Share of Service Sector across the Region


1 0 4.7 2.7 1.7 115.2 9.9 3.4 3.2

16.86.8 7.3 3.8

22.7 19.528.9 28.2 29.8 30.9

4043.6

27.4 26.1

47.249.6

30 31.2

76.3 79.766.4 69.1 68.5 68.1

48.8 53.570 71.8

36.1 43.662.7 65

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

2002 2030 2002 2030 2002 2030 2002 2030 2002 2030 2002 2030 2002 2030

ServiceIndustryAgriculture

North America

Latin America

NortheastAsia

Southeast Asia

Oceania China Russia

(Note) Residential demand includes demand for electricity, gas, oil products, heat and biomass.


Commercial sector to grow at the fastest pace.

APEC Sectoral Energy Demand Outlook(2002-2030)

2002 2010 2020 2030 2002-2010 2010-2020 2020-2030 2002-2030

Industry 1,407 1,842 2,289 2,769 3.4% 2.2% 1.9% 2.4%

Transport 1,092 1,342 1,651 1,999 2.6% 2.1% 1.9% 2.2%

Commercial 382 470 608 770 2.6% 2.6% 2.4% 2.5%

Residential 938 1,008 1,101 1,221 0.9% 0.9% 1.0% 0.9%

Total 3,819 4,661 5,648 6,759 2.5% 1.9% 1.8% 2.1%

Absolute Level (Unit: Mtoe) Annual Growth Rate

Demand and Production of Oil, Coal and Natural Gas (1980, 2002 and 2030)

Increasing Import Dependence for Oil and Natural GasProjected Tight Balance between Coal Demand and its Production by 2030


-2000

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

Dem

and

Prod

uctio

n

Net

IM(+

)/EX(

-)

Dem

and

Prod

uctio

n

Net

IM(+

)/EX(

-)

Dem

and

Prod

uctio

n

Net

IM(+

)/EX(

-)

1980 2002 2030

MTO

E

Coal Oil Natural gas

Rising Oil Import Dependency

Rising Oil Import Dependency across the Region


APEC NortheastAsia

SoutheastAsia

NorthAmerica Oceania China

2002 36% 100% 19% 55% 26% 22%2005 37% 100% 27% 53% 29% 34%2010 38% 100% 35% 49% 42% 44%2015 41% 100% 44% 51% 50% 46%2020 44% 100% 56% 50% 55% 57%2025 50% 100% 63% 53% 59% 65%2030 52% 100% 69% 56% 62% 70%

Coal Demand and Production by 2030 (2002 and 2030)


Renewed Interest in Coal due to Price CompetitivenessTight Balance between Demand and Production in 2030

0

400

800

1200

1600

2000

AUSCDACHLPRCHKC IN

AJP

NROKMASMEX NZ PE RPRUS CTTHAUSA VN

MTO

E

Demand in 2002Demand in 2030Production in 2002Production in 2030

LNG Demand Outlook (Unit: Million LNG Tonnes)


Increasing LNG Imports for Existing ImportersEmergence of New LNG Importers

China Japan Korea CT SIN RP Canada USA Chile Mexico

2004 59.3 22.3 6.8 13.5

2010 6.6 60.7 35 11 0.309 0.929 7.8 45.8 1.06 14.3

2020 26.2 74.1 48.4 14.8 3.5 0.929 25.8 80.2 5.01 26.2

2030 52 81.2 58.7 19.7 6.6 0.929 31.8 93.6 11.4 33.2

NEA SEA NA LA

Outlook of Nuclear Energy Production

Expansion of Nuclear for the Enhancement of Energy Security

0

50

100

150

200

250

CDA

PRC

JPN

ROK

MEX

RUS CT

USA VN

MTO

E

20022030, AAGR %

-1%

10.5%1.4%

3.2%

0.2%

2.8%

-1.7%

0.5%


Required Capacity for Electricity Generation (2002-2030)


APEC electricity generation would require annual additions of 74GW.

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

2002 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Thou

sand

MW

Wind, Solar& Others

Geothermal

Oil-Based

Hydro

Natural Gas

Nuclear

Coal Steam

Biomass

Power Generation Mix in APEC


Increasing share of coal in power generation mix

1.0% 1.5% 1.9% 1.9% 1.8% 1.9% 1.8%

43.5% 45.9% 48.3% 48.5% 49.8% 51.4% 52.9%

5.3% 3.8% 3.0% 2.4% 2.0% 1.7% 1.5%15.8% 14.7% 14.1% 13.7% 13.1% 12.5% 12.2%

19.5% 19.6% 19.0% 20.0% 20.0% 19.5% 18.7%

14.2% 13.7% 12.5% 12.1% 11.5% 11.3% 11.0%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2002 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Elec

tric

ity G

ener

atio

n M

ixBiomass Coal SteamOil-Based NuclearNatural Gas HydroGeothermal Wind, Solar & Others

Total Energy Investment Requirements 2003 – 2030

Between 5.95 trillion USD to 7.55 trillion USD


Electricity generation & transmission,

60.4%

Oil & Gas domestic

pipelines, 9.2%

Oil & Gas international trade , 7.5%

Oil & Gas production & processing ,

17.7%

Coal production &

transportation, 5.1%

Energy Investment Requirements as Share of GDP (2002-2030)

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000

GDP per Capita in 2002, 2002 US Dollars

Ener

gy In

vest

men

t Req

uire

men

ts a

sSh

are

of G

DP,

200

3-20

30

BD

RUS

MAS

VN

PNG

USAHKC

CDAAUS

SIN

JPN

NZCTINA

RPTHAI

PE ROKMEX

PRC


Difficulty for Financing Energy Projects in Some Economies of APEC.

Outlook of CO2 Emissions (2002-2030)


0

1200

2400

3600

4800

6000

7200

8400

9600

1980 1990 2002 2010 2020 2030

CO2

Sect

oral

Em

issi

ons

-M

illio

n To

ns

Power Generation Others IndustryTransport Residential Commercial

The Power Sector and Transport Sector to Lead CO2 Emissions.

Challenges for the Energy Sector of APECEnergy Security

Increasing Import DependencyOil and Natural Gas

Growing Need for Energy InfrastructureTankers, Pipeline, Refineries, Power Plants, and etc.

Looming Shortage of Human Resources for Energy SectorEngineers, Operators and Scientists

Increasing Flow of Energy TransportationMaritime Congestion, Sea-lane Security, Long Distance Pipeline Security

InvestmentSubstantial Investment Requirements

Upstream, Midstream and DownstreamEnvironment

Damaging Impact from Expansive Energy Use on EnvironmentLocal and Global

Options for the Future

Enhancing Energy Efficiency ImprovementSupply Side

CCGT, Clean Coal Technology, Fuel CellsDemand Side

Electricity Appliances: Air Conditioner, Refrigerator, Washing MachineAutomobile: Fuel Efficient Automobile, Hybrid Vehicle

Developing Alternative Energy SourcesNew and Renewable Sources, Bio Fuels, Non-conventional Oil, LNG, and Advanced Nuclear

Promoting Cross-border Resource AllocationPower InterconnectionOil PipelineNatural Gas PipelineJoint Stockpiling: Oil and Natural Gas

A lesson from history

“Oil shales are found virtually all round the world. The demand for oil is now strong enough and the price of crude high enough to warrant the commercial production of oil from shale. A number of plants are now nearing completion so that there is a likelihood that the industry will be on a commercial basis in the summer of 1920 or sooner thereafter.”

Excerpted from ‘The Oil Shale Industry’by Victor Cliftton Alderson

asia pacific energy research centre · (source) asia pacific energy research centre (2006), “apec...

Documents