asian low-carbon society scenarios: tools and practices · asian low-carbon society scenarios:...

Asian Low-carbon Society Scenarios: Tools and Practices

Kei GOMI 五味五味五味五味馨馨馨馨Kyoto University, Japan2010, Aug., 18th. Seminar @JGSEE, Bangkoｋｋｋｋ

CONTENTS

�Basic methodology: Backcasting

�AIM* Tools for designing LCS

�Application example�Application example

* Asia-pacific Integrated Modeling: A research group consists of more than 40 researchers from National Institute of Environmental Studies (Japan), Kyoto University (Japan), Energy Research Institute (China), Indian Institute of Management (India), etc. AIM group has been studied various aspects of climate change for more than 20 years. 2

2

BACKCASTING APPROACH

VisionSocio-economic indicators

Energy demandGHG emissionsLC measures

Target year

3

LC measures

RoadmapSchedule of measuresCost to implement measuresGHG emissions reductionsAncillary benefit of measures

Present

Scenario

DESIGNING A FUTURE

� GHG emission is related to most of the activities in the society.

� Required low-carbon measures strongly depends on the situation.

Economic growth rate

Industrial structure

Transport

Demography

� Therefore, consider both; � situation of the society as

a whole� detailed technologies used

in the society.

� Follow-up (e.g. every five years) 4

Transport systemLifestyle

Building stock

Land-use structure

Power supply

End-use energy device

PROCEDURE AND AIM/TOOLS

(1) Target setting

(3) Socio-economic

scenario

development

(4) Developing low-

carbon measures

database

(7) Developing a

system of detailed

measures

(8) Setting

quantitative

information of

(2) Information collection

IOTR

LCBD

5

5

development database

(6) Estimating a quantitative

snapshot as a LCS

information of

measures

(9) Estimating a

roadmap using BCT

(5) Evaluation of

measures’

integrated effect

(implementation)

(10) Follow-up

AHP tool BCT

SED template

ExSSElement models in AIM tools

PROBLEMS AND TOOLS

AHP tool

SEDtemplate

IOTRIO table is not available.

How to assume future society?

Which measure is more

preferable than others?

��

��

��

IO table reconciliation

tool.

Socio-economic

design template.

Analytic hierarchy

process tool.

LCBDWhat kind of measures are

available? ��

Low-carbon measures

database

6

6

AHP tool

BCT

ExSS

preferable than others?

How to calculate a quantitative

vision?

How to calculate a schedule of

measures?

��

��

��

Analytic hierarchy

process tool.

Extended snapshot

tool.

Backcasting tool.

AIM/CGEHow much is social cost of LCS

measures?��

Computable General

Equilibrium MOdel

AIM/

Enduse

What is optimal investment

path and cost? ��

Extended snapshot

tool.

MORE ABOUT LCS TOOLS

AHP tool

SEDtemplate

IOTRIO table reconciliation tool estimates an IO table from available information. Using

cross entropy method it estimates a balanced matrix based on national IO table and

local economic statistics.

Socio-economic design template assumes future image and sets parameters in a Q&A

style. Users anther the questions and assume direction first, and then set the volume

of parameters.

Analytic hierarchy process tool compares measures by multi-criteria and estimates

LCBDLow-carbon measures database contains information of measures available in the target

year. Among them are: energy-efficient technologies, renewable energy, transport

structure management, etc.

7

AHP tool

BCT

ExSS

Analytic hierarchy process tool compares measures by multi-criteria and estimates

integrated index. The criterion includes health, security & safety, transport

convenience, cultural value, land scape,etc.

Extended snapshot tool estimates socio-economic (SE) activity, energy demand,

emissions and introduction of Low-carbon measures in future. SE activity includes

population, industry, transport, and land use.

Backcasting tool estimates a schedule of detailed measures under resource and time

constraints. It also considers integrated index estimated by AHP tool, and maximize

their positive effect.

AIM/Enduse

AIM/CGEComputable General Equilibrium Model estimates economic activity of supply and

demand sectors based on price & market mechanism. It can estimate economic impact

of carbon tax, subsidy, constraints of emissions etc.

Enduse model estimates stock dynamics of energy service devices of energy and supply

demand sectors based on economically reasonable choice. It can assess cost of

particular sector to achieve particular emission targets.

EXTENDED SNAPSHOT TOOL (EXSS)

�A static model (single year) consists of simultaneous equations

�About 6000 endogenous variables

Wage Income

Export by

goods

Government

expenditure

Investment

Import ratio

Input

coefficient

matrix

Labor productivity

Labor participation ratio

Household size

Consumption

pattern

Demographic composition

Taxation and

social security

Floor area per

output

IO

analysis

Output by

industry

Consumption

Labor

demandPopulation

Number of

household

Output of

commercial

industry

PopulationOutput of

manufacturing

industry

8

variables

�Formulated by GAMS (general algebraic modeling system)

� Input and Output are MS Excel spread sheets.

output

Freight generation

per output

Transport distance

Modal share

Trip per person

Trip distance

Modal shareEnergy service

demand per driving

force

Fuel share

Energy

efficiency

CO2 emission factor

Commercial

building

floor area

Freight

transport

demand

Passenger

transport

demand

Energy service

demand

Exogenous

variables

Parameters

Endogenous

variables

Final energy

demand

Energy demand

(DPG)

Central power

generation

(CPG)Energy demand

(CPG)

Primary energy

supply

Dispersed power

generation (DPG)

CO2 emssions

Energy efficiency

DPG

Energy efficiency

(CPG)

Fuel share (CPG)

Transmission loss

(CPG)

Own use (CPG)

Energy end-use

device share

Energy end-use

device energy

efficiency

Carbon sink

SOCIO-ECONOMIC PART OF EXSS

Wage Income

Export by

goods

Government

expenditure

Investment

Import ratio

Input

coefficient

Labor productivityLabor participation ratio

Household size

Consumption

pattern


Taxation and

social security

IO

analysis

Output by

industry

Consumption

Labor

demandPopulation

Output of Output of

9

coefficient

matrix

Household size

Floor area per

output

Freight generation

per output

Transport distance

Trip per person

Trip distance

Modal share

Energy service

demand per driving

force

Number of

household

Output of

commercial

industry

Commercial

building

floor area

Freight

transport

demand

Passenger

transport

demand

Population

Energy service

demand

Output of

manufacturing

industry

Energy service

demand per driving

force Fuel share

Energy

efficiency

Energy service

demand

Final energy

demand

Energy end-use

device share

Energy end-use

device energy

10Freight generation

per output

Transport distance

Trip per person

Trip distance

Modal share

Commercial

building

floor area

Freight

transport

demand

Passenger

transport

demand

ENERGY PART OF EXSS

10

CO2 emission factorExogenous

variables

Parameters

Endogenous

variables

Energy demand

(DPG)

Central power

generation (CPG)

Energy demand

(CPG)

Primary energy

supply

Dispersed power

generation (DPG)

CO2 emssions

Energy efficiency

DPG

Energy efficiency

(CPG)Fuel share (CPG)

Transmission loss

(CPG)

Own use (CPG)

device energy

efficiency

Carbon sink

EXSS: FURTHER EXTENSION TO AGRICULTURE

(ZERO-ORDER SKETCH OF NEW MODULE)

Agriculture

activity

coefficient

Output of

agriculture

Driving force of

agricultural

Production of agriculture in terms of money. Estimated by IO analysis.

Production of agriculture in physical unit. (sq.km of paddy field, number of

A parameter converting production in monetary to production in physical unit.It depends on structure of agriculture.

11

Share of practice in

each agricultural

activity

agricultural

activity

GHG emission

factor

GHG emissions

from agriculture

paddy field, number of livestock, etc)

GHG emissions by gas and by agricultural activity.

Ex. How many times rice is planted/harvested in a year, difference of water management, kind of feed, etc.

Emission factor of GHG by gas and by practice.

EXSS AND OTHER AIM ELEMENT MODELS

Input coefficient

Capital formation

Export by goods

Gov. expenditure

Import ratio

Labor

productivity

Labor participation ratio


Taxation and social

security

Transport & land use:- Population distribution

- Share of vehicles**

- Urban/rural development plan**

- Construction of infrastructure**

- Nature conservation area

- Renewal of building stock** Sometimes regarded as LC measures/

Economy:- Economic growth level

- Basic industries in the region

- Fiscal policy

- Private investment including FDI

- Technological development

- Consideration of environment

Household:- Demographic structure

- Sense of value

- Balance of work & life

- Consumption style

- Living style

- Education

- Time use

Energy*:- Technological development

- Availability of energy resource

- Fuel price

- Power supply policy

- Behavior change

- Awareness of people & business*Related to selection of LC measures.

Macro-economy

model

Industrial structureTechnological

evelopment Education

Population/household

dynamics model

Household production

Lifestyle

IO Output by Labor demand Population

12

Floor area per output

Energy service demand per

driving force

Fuel share

Energy efficiency

CO2 emission factor

Carbon sink

Household size

Consumption pattern

security

Freight generation per output

Transport distance

Modal share

Trip per person

Trip distance

Modal share

Energy

balance table

IO

table

Labor/population

balance table

Transport

demand …etc

LC measures

portfolio

Household

account

GHG emissions

inventory

AIM/enduse

House and building

dynamics model

Energy supply

modelTraffic demand

Model

Household production

and lifestyle model

Land use plan

LC measures

LC measures

LC measures

LC measures

Key scenario elements to be assumed

Detailed assumptions without formal model

Element models in AIM tools

Parameters/exogenous variables to be input

Endogenous variables

Output of ExSS

IO

analysis

Wage Income

Output by

industry

Consumption

Labor demand Population

Number of

household

Output of

commercial

industry

Commercial

building floor area

Freight transport

demand

Passenger

transport demand

Population

Energy demand

CO2 emission

Output of

manufacturing

industry

Introduction of counter

measures to be reflected

Power generation

Fuel share

Energy efficiency

Own use

Transmission loss

BACKCASTING TOOL

� Based on constraints and input information of measures, BCT estimates,� Schedule of measures� Emission reduction pass� Annual input resource.� Annual input resource.

� It also considers time needed for R&D, developing financial mechanism, social decision making, etc.

� Integrated effect is also considered.

13

BACKCASTING TOOL

Commercial

year of

technologies

Upper bound of

annual input

resource

Relations

between

measures

Required

resource input

(human &

Schedule

Emission reductions

14

Necessary

years to

implement

Direct GHG

emission

reductions

measures

State in the

starting year

(human &

financial)

Integrated

effect(ancillary and/or

co-benefit)

Input resource

APPLICATION

�Shiga prefecture� A snapshot in 2030 with three

environmental targets

�Kyoto city� A snapshot and a roadmap consists

of more than 130 measures/policies

15

SHIGA & KYOTO

16Osaka

NagoyaKobe Kyoto Shiga

(1) ABOUT SHIGA PREFECTURE 2000

�Population : 1.39 million

�Gross Regional Product: � 5935 bill.\ ( 60bill.$)� 4.25 mill.\/capita (43000$/capita)

CO emissions:

Shiga prefecture

�CO2 emissions: � 12.5Mt-CO2� 9.0t-CO2/capita

� Industrial structure (share of gross output)� primary 1%� secondary 62%� tertiary 37% (in 2000) 17

(2) TARGET SETTING

�Base year 2000�Target year 2030�Three environmental targets�Single socio-economic scenario�Target activity

Shiga prefecture

�Target activity� Household, Industry, Transport� Activity within the area of Shiga prefecture

18

Climate change

mitigation

Sound eco-system:

Revival of Lake Biwa

environment

Recycling system

GHG emissions :

-50% (related to 1990)

Nutrient load inflow :

-50%Landfill waste:

-75%

(3) EXSS: FURTHER EXTENSION

Output by

industry

PopulationNumber of

household

Commercial

building floor

area

Freight

transport

demand

Passenger

transport

demand

Agriculture

production

Shiga prefecture

19

Land use

demand

Number of

livestock

Municipal waste

generation

Waste

landfill

CH4 emission

from griculture

Carbon sink

(forest)

Waste

incineration

CO2 emission

from incineration

CH4 emission

from landfill

Water nutrient

load emission

Water quality

GHGs Water Waste

Industrial waste

generation

(4) SOCIO-ECONOMIC SCENARIO

� Dominant social trends in 2030

(1) Return of the population to the current level and progress of aging;

(2) Mature economic growth and dramatic increase in the role of the tertiary industry; and

(3) Increase in the proportion of women and elderly

Shiga prefecture

(3) Increase in the proportion of women and elderly people in employment.

� Powerful cities and industries maintaining intra-prefectural and inter-prefectural connections

� Beautiful rural villages maintaining nature and landscape 20

(5) RESULT: ENERGY AND GHG

GHG emissions by sector

924

897

335

1155

2906

1734

10801149

240101

283

156

165

303

10000

12000

14000

16000

GHG

emiss

ions

(1,0

00 t-

CO2e

q)

ForestabsorptionAgriculture(methane)WasteincinerationIndustrialprocess

12496

12877

14369

Carbon Sink

Agriculture methane( )

Waste incineration

Primary energy demand

405

498109

12085

255000

6000

Primary energy demand (ktoe)

Coal Oil Natural gas Nuclear power Hydropower Renewables

4883 5344

Shiga prefecture

21

600469

960

416

12401686

2114

1430

12631013

67496383

6436

3769

235303

-477

-2000

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

1990 2000 2030BaU 2030with

measures

GHG

emiss

ions

(1,0

00 t-

CO2e

q)

processFreightTransportPassengerTransportIndustry

BusinessoprrationsHousehold

6276

incineration

Industrial process

Freight transport

Passenger transport

Industry

Commercial

Household

319

2643 3043

1160

10501056

886

405

361

231

542650

87

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

2000 2030BaU 2030CM

Primary energy demand (ktoe)

3044

(6) RESULT: CONTRIBUTION OF MEASURES

14369

8000

10000

12000

14000

GHG emissions/reductions (1,000 t-C

O2eq)

Forest absorption 477kt-CO2eq

Structural reform of transport

459kt-CO2eq

Environmentally friendly actions

880kt-CO2eq

Renewable energy 615kt-CO2eqEm

issi

on r

educ

tion

Shiga prefecture

22

12496

6276

0

2000

4000

6000

1990 2030BaU 2030with

measures

GHG emissions/reductions (1,000 t-C

O2eq)

Fuel shifting 966kt-CO2eq

Efficiency improvement 3007kt-

CO2eq

CO2 per power generation

1687kt-CO2eq

Emissions

(7) RESULT: WATER NUTRIENT LOAD

0.1

1.9

12

14

16

18

Load flows into LakeBiw

a(kt/y)

16.2

0.4

0.7

5

6

7

8

6.7

0.020.02

0.3

0.4

0.5ain all on the a e sur ace

Ground ater

anduse

i estoc

Factories

Households

0.38

COD TN TP

Shiga prefecture

23

4.0

0.5

1.6

0.3

0.6

0.7

8.0

4.4

0.1

1.6

0

2

4

6

8

10

2000 20 0

Load flows into LakeBiw

a(kt/y)

7.7

1.8

0.9

0.6

0.2

0.3

0.4

3.0

0.9

0.4

0.6

0

1

2

3

4

5

2000 20 0

3.3

0.16

0.01

0.05

0.02

0.12

0.020.02

0.010.0070.02

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

2000 20 0

0.09

(8) RESULT: WASTE LANDFILL

Generation and landfill of

industrial waste

Generation and landfill of

municipal waste

23714000

5000

40004203

5017

Reduced

Kt

60

4.9

0.4

400

500

600509

444

Kt

60

4.9

0.4

400

500

600509

444

KtTreated at home

Reduced

Treated at home

Reduced

Shiga prefecture

24

286 146 71

1664 19102315

156198

259

18941950

0

1000

2000

3000

2000 2004 2030

Valuable

Recycled

Landfill

92

23

28.9

100.8

39

260

345

60

0

100

200

300

400

2000 2030

92

23

28.9

100.8

39

260

345

60

0

100

200

300

400

2000 2030

Recycled

Group separation and collection

Landfill

Recycled

Group separation and collection

Landfill

(9) COUNTER MEASURES

Measure Status to be achieved by 2030What should be done now to achieve the

statusReducti

on

Energy efficiency of equipment

Improvement of efficiency by 30% in total

Improvement rate of approximately 0.8% per annum; Selection of more energy efficient products at the time of replacement

551

HEMS (home energy management system)

Penetration at 90% of houses Start of penetration 60

Heat insulation level in houses

Achievement of the next-generation heat insulation level in 90% of houses

Selection of high heat insulation level at the time of newly building, remodeling,

55

Shiga prefecture

25

houses heat insulation level in 90% of houses the time of newly building, remodeling, and changing houses

Biomass heating Penetration at 10% of households Selection of biomass at the time of replacement of heating appliance

39

Passive solar heating Penetration at 10% of households Installation at the time of newly building and remodeling houses

39

Energy saving actions Penetration at almost all households Start of penetration, and education 156

Photovoltaic power Penetration at 20% of households Continuous expansion 54

Solar water heater Penetration at 20% of households Continuous expansion 99

Others 89

Total in households 1144

ktCO2eq

(10) POLICY RECOMMENDATION

Main efforts and actions required for the respective players to

achieve different environmental targets

Realization of a low carbon economy

Rehabilitation of the environment of Lake Biwa

Establishment of arecycling system

Businesses Introduction of high efficiency production equipmentFuel switching in manufacturing and transportationMore efficient logistics and modal shift

Reduction of water pollutant loads per production value

Recycling of wasteDevelopment of efficient recycling plants

Shiga prefecture

26

modal shift

Citizen Environmentally friendly housesPenetration of fuel-efficient passenger vehiclesEnergy saving actionsUse of railway, bicycles, and walking

Kitchen managementReuse of bathwater and rainwater

Control of municipalwaste generation through the use of rented and leased goodsSeparation and recycling of domestic waste

Local governments, etc.

Maintenance of forestsformation of compact citiesEncouragement of modal shift

Development of sewagesystems and reception of industrial effluentMeasures for drainage in urban Direct purification of river water and dredgingConversion to natural lakeshores

Establishment of a system for the reuse and recycling of municipalwasteEstablishment of efficient recycling routes

(1) ABOUT KYOTO CITY 2005

� Demography� Population 1.47million� Household 0.65 million

� Economy� GDP 6.1 trillion yen (67Bill.$)� Per capita GDP 46100 $� Industrial structure p:s:t = 0.2 : 28 : 71

Kyoto city

27

� Transport� Passenger transport demand 9251 Mp-km� Freight transport demand 3484 Mt-km

� GHG emissions 8015 ktCO2 (5.5tCO2/capita)

� Famous sightseeing place(17 world heritage)

(2) FRAMEWORK

� Base year: 2005� Target year: 2030� Target area: Kyoto City area� Target activity:

� Residential, commercial and industrial activity in Kyoto City area

Kyoto city

� Residential, commercial and industrial activity in Kyoto City area� Transport originated in Kyoto city area

� Target gas:� CO2 from fossil fuel combustion� CO2 from waste (plastic) incineration

� Low-carbon target: -40% compared to 1990 level� Two cases:

� Frozen at current levels case� Corrective measures case 28

(3) SNAPSHOT OF KYOTO CITY IN 2030ocio-economic indicators GHG emissions

2420

1740 1826

1815

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

em

issions (kt-CO

2)

Residential

Commercial

Industry

Passenger Transport

Freight Transport

Waste incineration

7768

8015

8897 2005 20302030/2005

Population (104) 147 140 0.95

No. of household (104) 65 65 0.99

GDP (bill yen) 6124 8305 1.36

GDP per capita (mill yen/capita)

4.15 5.94 1.43

Kyoto city

29258

474 577 349

504

566 756

421

1506

1689 1655

819

2080 1256

1674

1276

1680 2204

900

821

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

1990 2005 2030 BaU 2030 CM

CO

2em

issions (kt

4586 Gross output (bill yen) 9938 13400 1.35

Primary industry 17 19 1.13

Secondary industry 2735 3542 1.30

Tertiary industry 6947 9507 1.37

Passenger transport (mill p-km) 9251 8192 0.89

Freight transport (mill t-km) 3484 4571 1.31

2030 Frozen

2030 Corrective measures

(4) LOW-CARBON DIRECT MEASURESContribution to CO2 emissions reduction

(compared to Fro en)irect measures

32

500

120

40

974

174

194

Energy- saving behavior

Improvement of energy efficiency

Fuel shift & Natural energy

Energy- saving behavior




Residential

Commercial

Industry

Sector Low- carbon countermeasure Data SourceCategory

(*)

Emissions reduction

(kt- CO2)

Action

(**)

Air conditioner 50.1 3(***)

Highest energy efficiency air conditioner COP 6.60 2 E Diffusion ratio (cooling and heating) 50%

High energy efficiency air conditioner COP 2.54 1 E Diffusion ratio (cooling and heating) 50%

High energy efficiency kerosene heating COP 0.88 1 E Diffusion ratio (heating: kerosene) 80% 12.9 3

High energy efficiency gas heating COP 0.88 1 E Diffusion ratio (heating: gas) 80% 25.8 3

High energy efficiency oil water heater COP 0.83 1 E Diffusion ratio (hot water: oil) 70% 6.1 3

Gas water heater 55.0 3

Latent heat recovery- type water heater COP 0.83 1 E Diffusion ratio (hot water: gas) 50%

High energy efficiency gas water heater COP 0.83 1 E Diffusion ratio (hot water: gas) 50%

Heat pump water heater COP 4.50 3 E Diffusion ratio (hot water: electricity) 70% 48.9 3

High energy efficiency gas cooker Thermal efficiency (base year= 1) 0.55 1 E Diffusion ratio (cooking: gas) 70% 12.3 3

High energy efficiency IH cooker Thermal efficiency (base year= 1) 0.86 1 E Diffusion ratio (cooking: electricity) 70% 8.0 3

Fluorescent light

LED (substitute fluorescent light) Electricity consumption (conventional type=1) 2.67 1 E Diffusion ratio 50% 24.1 3

Hf inverter fluorescent light Electricity consumption (conventional type=1) 1.33 1 E Diffusion ratio 50%

Incandescent light 51.5 3

LED (substitute incandescent light) Electricity consumption (conventional type=1) 8.70 1 E Diffusion ratio 50%

Bulb- type fluorescent light Electricity consumption (conventional type=1) 4.35 1 E Diffusion ratio 50%

Refrigerator 72.1 3

Super high energy efficiency refrigerator Electricity consumption (conventional type=1) 2.92 1 E Diffusion ratio 50%

Highest energy efficiency refrigerator Electricity consumption (conventional type=1) 2.33 1 E Diffusion ratio 50%

TV 31.9 3

LCD TV Electricity consumption (conventional type=1) 2.27 1 E Diffusion ratio 50%

Highest energy efficiency TV Electricity consumption (conventional type=1) 1.54 1 E Diffusion ratio 50%

House insulation 100.7 2

Next generation level Thermal loss (base year= 1) 0.36 4 E Diffusion ratio 40%

New standard Thermal loss (base year= 1) 0.43 4 E Diffusion ratio 40%

Energy- saving behavior Energy service demand reduction ratio 10% 5 B Diffusion ratio 25% 32.4 3

Photovoltaic generation Potential(ktoe) 295 6 S Diffusion ratio 10% 26.9 5

Solar water heating Potential(ktoe) 1037 6 S Diffusion ratio (hot water: all) 10% 38.8 5

Other energy efficiency improvement E 0.2 3

Other fuel shifting S 27.3 3

Total 625.1

Air conditioner (cooling only) 41.3 4

Super high energy efficiency air conditioner (cooling only) COP 5.00 2 E Diffusion ratio (cooling: electricity) 50%

Highest energy efficiency air conditioner (cooling only) COP 4.07 1 E Diffusion ratio (cooling: electricity) 50%

Cooling (gas) 19.1 4

High energy efficiency gas heat pump COP 1.60 8 E Diffusion ratio (cooling: gas) 40%

High energy efficiency absorption tiller (gas) COP 1.35 7 E Diffusion ratio (cooling: gas) 40%

High energy efficiency absorption tiller(oil) COP 1.35 9 E Diffusion ratio (cooling: oil) 70% 3.2 4

High energy efficiency boiler (oil) COP 0.88 1 E Diffusion ratio (heating: oil) 70% 25.1 4

High energy efficiency boiler (gas) COP 0.88 1 E Diffusion ratio (heating: gas) 70% 75.4 4

Identified implementation intencity

Household sector

Kyoto city

30

194

64

38

237

271

232

177

156

874

120

228

0 400 800 1200


Fuel shift

Eco- driving

Modal shift





Reduction of emissions per power generation

Forest absorption

Reduction of waste incineration

Industry

Passenger

Transport

Freight

Transport

Others

CO2 emissions reduction (kt- CO2)

Air conditioner (heating only) 67.0 4

Super high energy efficiency air conditioner (heating only) COP 7.40 2 E Diffusion ratio (heating: electricity) 90%

Highest energy efficiency air conditioner (heating only) COP 4.44 1 E Diffusion ratio (heating: electricity) 10%

High energy efficiency oil water heater COP 0.87 1 E Diffusion ratio (hot water: oil) 70% 16.0 4

Gas water heater 64.2 4

High energy efficiency gas waterheater COP 0.87 1 E Diffusion ratio (hot water: gas) 50%

Latent heat recovery- type water heater COP 0.85 1 E Diffusion ratio (hot water: gas) 50%

CO2 cooling medium water heater COP 3.00 1 E Diffusion ratio (hot water: electricity) 100% 64.2 4

High energy efficiency gas cooker Thermal efficiency (base year= 1) 0.55 1 E Diffusion ratio (cooking: gas) 70% 27.0 4

IH cooking heater Thermal efficiency (base year= 1) 0.86 1 E Diffusion ratio (cooking: electricity) 70% 11.6 4


Timer controlled LED (substitute fluorescent light) Electricity consumption (conventional type=1) 3.95 1 E Diffusion ratio 50%

Illumination controlled LED (substitute fluorescent light) Electricity consumption (conventional type=1) 3.36 1 E Diffusion ratio 50%


LED (substitute incandescent light) Electricity consumption (conventional type=1) 4.55 1 E Diffusion ratio 50%

Bulb- type fluorescent light Electricity consumption (conventional type=1) 4.55 1 E Diffusion ratio 50%

High- intensity evacuation light Electricity consumption (conventional type=1) 4.18 1 E Diffusion ratio 70% 0.5 4

Large scale computer (energy- saving type) Electricity consumption (conventional type=1) 1.18 1 E Diffusion ratio 70% 3.1 4

Personal computer (energy- saving type) Electricity consumption (conventional type=1) 2.47 1 E Diffusion ratio 70% 3.3 4

Copier (energy- saving type) Electricity consumption (conventional type=1) 1.45 1 E Diffusion ratio 70% 0.9 4

Fax machine (energy- saving type) Electricity consumption (conventional type=1) 1.45 1 E Diffusion ratio 70% 0.6 4

Printer (energy- saving type) Electricity consumption (conventional type=1) 1.45 1 E Diffusion ratio 70% 1.2 4

Elevator (energy- saving type) Electricity consumption (conventional type=1) 4.01 1 E Diffusion ratio 70% 5.4 4

Ventilation 50.1 4

with energy- saving fan Electricity consumption (conventional type=1) 2.00 1 E Diffusion ratio 50%

with low- pressure duct Electricity consumption (conventional type=1) 1.82 1 E Diffusion ratio 50%

Vending machine (energy- saving type) Electricity consumption (conventional type=1) 2.17 1 E Diffusion ratio 70% 11.5 4

Traffic light (LED type) Electricity consumption (conventional type=1) 3.75 1 E Diffusion ratio 70% 1.4 4

High energy efficiency transformer Electricity consumption (conventional type=1) 2.53 1 E Diffusion ratio 70% 13.3 4

Other electric appliances 61.2 4

30% energy- saving type Electricity consumption (conventional type=1) 1.43 1 E Diffusion ratio 50%

10% energy- saving type Electricity consumption (conventional type=1) 1.11 1 E Diffusion ratio 50%

Building insulation Thermal loss (base year= 1) 0.50 1 E Diffusion ratio 100% 231.1 2

BEMS Energy demand reduction ratio 10% 10 E Diffusion ratio 25% 24.4 4

Energy- saving behavior Energy service demand reduction ratio 10% 5 B Diffusion ratio 25% 40.3 4

Photovoltaic generation Potential(ktoe) 295 6 S Diffusion ratio 10% 26.9 5

Solar water heating Potential(ktoe) 1037 6 S Diffusion ratio (hot water: all) 5% 49.6 5

Other fuel shifting S 70.8 4

Total 1161.8

Energy efficient equipments E 184.7 4

High energy efficiency boiler Thermal efficiency(base year= 1) 1.09 11 Diffusion ratio 80%

High energy efficiency furnace Thermal efficiency(base year= 1) 1.67 12 Diffusion ratio 80%

High energy efficiency morter Electricity consumption(base year= 1) 1.25 11 Diffusion ratio 80%

Inverter control Electricity consumption(base year= 1) 1.05 11 Diffusion ratio 80%

Fuel shifting From oil to gas S Shifting ratio 60% 63.9 4

Increase in the ratio of seasonal vegetable production Ratio of CO2 emissions against non- seasonal vegitable production0.7 17 E Ratio of selling seasonal vegitables 36.2% 0.3 4

Increase in the ratio of wooden buildings Ratio of CO2 emissions against non- wooden buildings 0.6 17 E Diffusion ratio 30% 9.0 4

Total 257.9

Vehicle 270.7 1

Hybrid vehicle Fuel cost (conventional type=1) 0.6 1 E Diffusion ratio 50%

High energy efficiency vehicle Fuel cost (conventional type=1) 0.8 1 E Diffusion ratio 50%

Modal shift From vehicle to; B 236.7 1

Intra area trip walking and bicycle Shifting ratio 15%

train and bas Shifting ratio 30%

Inter area trip bicycle Shifting ratio 10%

train and bas Shifting ratio 30%

Trip to outside of the city train Shifting ratio 30%

Bio fuel From oil to bio fuel S Diffusion ratio 20% 231.7 5

Eco- driving Fuel efficiency improvement ratio 24% 13 B Diffusion ratio 20% 37.8 1

Total 776.9

Vehicle 176.9 1

Hybrid vehicle Fuel cost (conventional type=1) 0.6 1 E Diffusion ratio 50%

High energy efficiency vehicle Fuel cost (conventional type=1) 0.8 1 E Diffusion ratio 50%

Bio fuel From oil to bio fuel S Diffusion ratio 20% 156.2 5

Total 333.1

Bio- methanol power generation 17 production of electricity (ktoe) 18.8 53.8 5

Reducing the amount of waste incineration 17 Rate of CO2 emissions reduction 40% 228.1 3, 4

Improvement of CO2 intensity of power generation CO2 emission per generation (tC/toe) 0.78 873.9 (****)

Fuel shifting 14

Generation efficiency improvement

Coal Generation efficiency 48% 15

Gas Generation efficiency 55% 16

Total 4310.7

waste

incineration &

power supply

Commercial sevtor

Industrial sector

Passenger transport sector

Freight

transport

sector

(5) LOW-CARBON MEASURES

TDM implementation

Designing

pedestrian transit mall

Pavement

widening

Use of pedestrian

transit mall

Construction of

car- parkManagement of

car- park

Promotion of

park and ride

Study on road

pricingConstruction of

road pricing

facility

Implementation of Road pricing

Reducing vehicle

inflow

Introducing IC

cardImprovement of

public transport

timetable

More convenient terminal

Increase of

public transport use

Public bicycle

parking areaOrdinance of

bicycle parking

area on

commercial buildings

Planning

subsidy scheme on bicycle

parking area

Subsidize bicycle parking

area

Increase of bicycle parking

area

Promotion of bicycle parking

area

Increase of bicycle use

Implementation

of KICS- LLC*1

model project

Increase of

KISC- LLC

projectIncrease of

railway use

Planning of

LRT*2 systemConstruction of

LRT system

Operating LRT

Using LRT system

Board of bus

using system promotion

Increase of bus

lane

Promotion of bus lane system

Introducing

public transport priority system

Increase of bus

use

Campaign

sightseeing using public

transport

Planning

intelligent bus transit system

Operating

intelligent bus transit

Increase use of

public transport by visitors

outside of the

city

Improvement of

sightseeing information

display

Public transport

information service by

website

Increase use of public transport

by visitors

outside of the city

Construction of

electric vehicle

recharge stations

Eco- vehicle

promotionPlanning eco-

vehicle subsidy

Eco- vehicle subsidy

Diffusion of

eco- vehicle

Training of eco-

drivingDiffusion of

eco- driving

WalkableCity, Kyoto

Mobility management

TDM promotion

Modal shift (automobile to railway or

bus)

Transit mall Park & RideRoad pricing

Increase of public

transport use

Improvement of

environment for the usage of bicycle

Modal shift (automobile to railway)

Amenity in the usage of

railway

Light Rail Transit

Modal shift (automobile

to bus)

Bus priority

Modal shift of visitors

Sightseeing campaign

using public transport

Public transport information

service

Diffusion of eco- vehicle

Promotion of buying eco- vehicle

Diffusion of eco- driving

Enlightenment for eco-driving

Kyoto style Buildings and Forest Management

Improvement of insulation

level in

Improvement of insulation

level in

Improvement of emission intensity in

Forest absorption

Absorption of CO2 by

Low Carbon Lifestyle

Establishment of a Funding Mechanism

*1 KICS- LLC: Kyoto Information Card System, LLC

*2 LRT: Light Rail Transit*3 KES: KES Environmental Management System Standard

*4 KESC: KES Community

Kyoto city

31

bicycle uselevel in houses

Consulting service for

energy saving houses

CASBEE Kyoto

level in business buildings

intensity in construction

Promotion of Wooden houses

Wooden public

buildings

absorption

Forest management

of CO2 by planting tree

Promotion of planting tree on private space

Planting tree on public space

Planning of consultation

system for

energy- efficient buildings

Operation of

consultation system for

energy- efficient

buildingsDiffusion of

better insulated

houses

Design of CASBEE Kyoto

system

Operation of CASBEE Kyoto

system

Holding training workshops of

CASBEE Kyoto

system Propagation of

better insulated

housesPropagation of

better insulated

offices

Planning Heisei Kyo- Machiya

type housing

Construction of Heisei Kyo-

Machiya

prototypesImplementation

of Heisei Kyo-

Machiya type housing

Diffusion of

Heisei Kyo-Machiya type

housing

Publishing guidance of

wooden house

specificationConverting

public buildings

to wooden ones

Implementation of Integrated

forestry plan

Implementation of forestry

management

activation project

Operating subsidize

system of tree

plantingPlanting tree on

private space

Planting tree on roadside

Lifestyle

Improvement of efficiency in residential equipments

Enlightenment in lifestyle

Environmental education Eco- point

Energy-saving

behavior in houses

Reducing municipal waste

incineration

New recycling

plan

Encouragement of eco-

household

accountingEnergy saving

consulting

service

Promotion of eco- community

association

Diffusion of energy saving

labeling

Diffusion of energy efficient

home appliance


behavior

Training of eco-supporters at

Miyako Ecology

CenterEnvironmental

education in

school

Implementation of Children’s

Eco- life

Challenge Project

Diffusion of

energy efficient home appliance

Diffusion of

energy saving behavior

Operating eco-point system

Diffusion of

energy efficient home appliance

Implementation of new national

recycling society

planReducing

municipal waste

Decarbonationof Industry

Improvement of efficiency in business equipments

Large emitter

programs

KES environmental management

system standard

Support for SME

Promotion of R&D

Energy- saving behavior in business

establishment

Corporate environmental philanthropy

Promotion of corporate

environmental philanthropy

Energy saving in public

buildings

Energy saving reform of public

buildings

Improvement of emission intensity in agriculture

Seasonal vegetable promotion

Reducing industrial solid waste incineration

New recycling

plan

Implementation

of large programs

Diffusion of

energy efficient equipments

Diffusion of

energy saving managing

system

KES*3

consultation and lecture

Bidding that

gives preferential

treatment to

KES- certified companies

Diffusion of

energy efficient business

equipments


behavior

Subsidy to small

businessesFunding to small

buisinesses


business

equipments

R&D in

environment+nano cluster

research

organizationDiffusion of

energy efficient

home appliance developed in the

nanocluster


business

equipments developed in the

nanocluster

Implementation

of KESC*4

Planning of

public building reformation of

energy saving

systemsEnergy saving

reformation of

public buildings

Promotion of

seasonal vegetable

distribution

Improvement of industrial

production

techniqueIncrease the

ratio of seasonal

Kyoto vegetable consumption

Implementation

of new national recycling society

plan

Reducing industrial solid

waste emission

Comprehensive Use of

Renewable Energy

PV/SWH

PV/SWH for public

buildings

Promotion of PV/SWH for houses

Fuel shift of automobile (petroleum to biomass)

Sustaining BDF

production

Promotion of biofuel

Power generation by biomass

Bio methanol power

generation

Power generation by waste

incineration

Creating a

installation

specification of PV/SWH for

public building

Installation of

PV/SWH on public building

Subsidize

system of PV

Diffusion of PV devices

Collection of

used cooking oil

R&D of Gasified

methanol

developmentSetting guideline

of biofuel use

Differentiate

taxation of biofuel use

Diffusion of

biofuel use in national scale

Fuel shift of

vehicle from oil to biofuel

R&D of Gasified

methanol

Construction of bio methanol

plant

Operation of

bio- methanol power

generation

Power

generation from

solid waste incineration

Promotion of options by

funds

Kyoto citizen environmental

fund

Forest environment

tax

Kyoto carbon offset

Operation of

Kyoto citizen

environmental fund

Design of forest

environment tax

systemImplementation

of forest

environment tax system

Development of

Kyoto carbon

offset model project

Full- scale

operation of Kyoto carbon

offset system

(6) EX. MODAL SHIFT

Designing Construction of Study on road Introducing IC Public bicycle

Modal shift (automobile to railway or

bus)

Transit mall Park & RideRoad pricing

Increase of public

transport use

Improvement of

environment for the usage of bicycle

Kyoto city

32

Designing pedestrian

transit mallPavement

widening

Use of pedestrian

transit mall

Construction of car- park

Management of car- park

Promotion of

park and ride

Study on road pricing

Construction of road pricing

facility


Reducing vehicle inflow

Introducing IC card

Improvement of public transport

timetable


Increase of public transport

use

Public bicycle parking area

Ordinance of bicycle parking

area on

commercial buildings

Planning subsidy scheme

on bicycle

parking areaSubsidize

bicycle parking area

Increase of bicycle parking

area

Promotion of bicycle parking

areaIncrease of

bicycle use

Kyoto style Buildings and Forest Management

Improvement of emission intensity in construction

Forest absorption

Absorption of CO2 by

planting tree

(7) ACTION 1 WORKABLE CITY, KYOTO

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 203043.8

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

CO

2emissions reduction (kt-CO

2)

722

Kyoto city

33

TDM implementation

Designing pedestrian transit mall

Pavement widening

Use of pedestrian transit mall



Promotion of park and ride


Construction of road pricing facility


Reducing vehicle inflow by road pricing

Introducing IC card

Increase of public transport use (by IC card)

Improvement of public transport timetable

Increase of public transport use (by timetable improvement)


Increase of public transport use (by more convenient terminal)


32

32

32

11

11

11

TDM implementation

Designing pedestrian transit mall

Pavement widening

Use of pedestrian transit mall



Promotion of park and ride


Construction of road pricing facility


Reducing vehicle inflow by road pricing

Introducing IC card

Increase of public transport use (by IC card)

Improvement of public transport timetable

Increase of public transport use (by timetable improvement)


Increase of public transport use (by more convenient terminal)


(8) ACTION 1 WORKABLE CITY, KYOTOOrdinance of bicycle parking area on commercial buildings

Planning subsidy scheme on bicycle parking area

Subsidize bicycle parking area

Increase of bicycle parking area

Promotion of bicycle parking area


Implementation of KICS- LLC model project

Increase of KISC- LLC project

Increase of railway use

Planning of LRT system

Construction of LRT system

Operating LRT

Using LRT system

Board of bus using system promotion

21

21

Ordinance of bicycle parking area on commercial buildings

Planning subsidy scheme on bicycle parking area

Subsidize bicycle parking area


Promotion of bicycle parking area


Implementation of KICS- LLC model project

Increase of KISC- LLC project

Increase of railway use

Planning of LRT system

Construction of LRT system

Operating LRT

Using LRT system


Kyoto city

34


Increase of bus lane


Introducing public transport priority system

Increase of bus use

Campaign sightseeing using public transport

Planning intelligent bus transit system

Operating intelligent bus transit

Increase use of public transport by visitors outside of the city

Improvement of sightseeing information display

Public transport information service by website


Construction of electric vehicle recharge stations

Eco- vehicle promotion

Planning eco- vehicle subsidy



Training of eco- driving


30

12

12

448

38

kt-CO2


Increase of bus lane


Introducing public transport priority system

Increase of bus use

Campaign sightseeing using public transport

Planning intelligent bus transit system

Operating intelligent bus transit


Improvement of sightseeing information display

Public transport information service by website


Construction of electric vehicle recharge stations

Eco- vehicle promotion

Planning eco- vehicle subsidy



Training of eco- driving


IN OTHER COUNTRIES/CITIES

�Completed � Thailand (with SIIT)� Johor (Iskandar Malaysia)(with UTM)� India (with IIM)� Ahmedabad, India (with IIM)� Indonesia (with ITB)

Vietnam� Vietnam

�Proceeding/plannning� Ratchaburi, Thailand (with JGSEE)� Higashi-ohmi, Japan� Hanoi, Vietnum� Guangzhou, China (with GIEC)� Bhopal, India (with MANIT)

35

36Thank you!

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