asia’s role in the future randy kluver institute for pacific asia texas a&m university
Post on 19-Dec-2015
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The rise of Asia
Since WWII, growth in Asia has been explosive
Asian tigers (Japan, S Korea, Singapore, Taiwan) provided one wave of development (1945-1990)
Next wave of “little tigers” has stalled somewhat (Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia)
Next 20 years, though, will see Asia’s influence grow because of China and India
Current economic trends
China’s liberalization: opening of economy immediately shifted FDI flows out
of the rest of Asia has enjoyed annual economic growth of 8-12% since
about 1980. Gross GDP could conceivably pass that of the US by
2030, most certainly by 2050. India’s Growth
Stagnant for many years, primarily due to inability to break through economic reforms
started growing in recent years, and could also surpass US by 2050.
Are they compatible?
China China accounted for 7
percent of global merchandize exports and 6.1 percent of imports
China’s manufacturing industry is 41 percent of GDP,
Domestic market for goods: $1 trillion
Authoritarian capitalism
India India accounted for less
than 1 percent of exports and imports
India’s manufacturing industry is only 16 percent of GDP
Domestic market for goods: $250-330 billion
Democracy, but heavily state influenced economy
Post-war growth spurtsPercent of world GDP (PPP)
0
4
8
12
16
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25
Years since turnaround
Germany
China
Japan
South Korea Taiwan, China
Critical issues:
Struggle for resources Energy: International Energy Agency warned that
demand for oil imports by China and India will almost quadruple by 2030 (2007)
Other critical issues
Governance Different models lead to different results Losing sight of key priorities because of national pride
issues could undermine their potential Infrastructure (roads, highways, water systems,
housing, etc) India’s annual investments in infrastructure between 1998 and 2005 averaged 4% of GDP compared to 8.2% for China
Asia and global power
China is the only Asian country represented on the Security Council
Economic growth translates into various forms of geopolitical power.
Regional groupings have not been as significant as many had hoped (ASEAN, APEC, etc)
Military power is as yet insufficient for anything but border issues.
Asia has been largely unsuccessful in generating significant “soft power” except in limited areas.
© SIPRI 2007 www.sipri.org
Regional military expenditure, 1988-2006Regional military expenditure, 1988-2006
North America
Western Europe
Eastern EuropeAsia
Middle East
Latin America
Key challenges
China Potential for conflict:
Taiwan Demographics
Floating population Aging migration
India Potential for conflict:
Pakistan Demographics
Quickly emerging middle class
Population is not slowing as rapidly, creating greater demands on resources
How does the West respond?
Retreat, Resist, or Rejoice? US and Europe have shared fears, but
varying policy responses. US: China policy usually debated in election
years. Businesses and governments often have
different reactions, as well. Overall context of globalization has a
bearing on what ultimately happens.