asm transboundary haze studyhaze.akademisains.gov.my/download/asm-stipac 2nd june 2016.pdf · asm...

ASM TRANSBOUNDARY

HAZE STUDY

STIPAC 14th

Meeting

2nd

June 2016

1

A. Bakar Jaafar-ASM Haze Task Force @ASM

STIPAC Meeting

ASM Transboundary Haze Study

Scope:

i. Legal-Policy Framework;

ii. Institutional Arrangements;

ii. Socio-Economics; and

iii. Science and Technology (S&T)

on the following aspects:

1. Air Quality and Haze Episodes;

2. Peat Area and Water Management; and

3. Waste to Resources: Energy or Materials

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OUTLINE OF PRESENTATION

1. ASSESSMENT: SOURCES OF HAZE & IMPACTS

2. SOLUTIONS ROOTED IN SOCIO-ECONOMICS: (i) Slash, Not to Burn, but to Earn Additional Income; (ii) Investments in Biomass-to-Energy

Facilities by Public-Private Partnership

3. WATER MANAGEMENT: (i) Planted Areas; (ii) Disturbed or

Abandoned Peat Areas

4. LOCAL MITIGATION MEASURE @INVERSION

5. PRECAUTIONARY MEASURE

6. GAPS IN OUR KNOWLEDGE & FURTHER STUDIES

7. SCIENCE DIPLOMACY

8. LOGICAL FRAMEWORK

ACKNOWLEDGMENT

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Satellite Image of Sources of Haze

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El-Niño & its Influence on Haze

5

0

1

2

3

4

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

Level of El-Niño Highest API Value

Year

El Niño API Value

Very Strong

Strong

Moderate

Weak

Kuching

Kota Kinabalu

Kuala Selangor

Muar

Shah Alam

Klang

Miri

Tanjung Malim

Sri Aman

Sibu

Data not available

Note: All of this API is based on

PM10


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El-NINO & HAZE EPISODES, 1982-2016


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Land-use changes

Slash and burn

Burning within oil palm

plantation

Peat combustion

Local anthropogenic

activities

Sources of Haze

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A Major Source of Haze

Rein et al. (2008)


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Sources of haze


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HEALTH ECONOMIC

AGRICULTURE BIODIVERSITY

A. Bakar Jaafar-ASM Haze Task Force @ASM STIPAC Meeting

Impact of Haze

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11

Impact (Health) Impact of Haze

PM2.5 and Health

(Betha et al. 2013)

Particle Number Concentration, PNC

< 0.1 µm


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Impact (Health) Impact of Haze

1. Common symptoms during haze

• throat irritation, coughing, difficulty in breathing, nasal congestion,

sore eyes, cold attacks and chest pain.

2. Several studies shows increased in asthma, conjuctivitis and acute

respiratory infections during haze episodes.

3. In 1997, number of outpatient visits for

• Kuching: Asthma and respiratory diseases increased from 2-to-3

times during the peak haze period (in Kuching)

• KL: Respiratory disease outpatient visits increased from 250 to 800

a day

4. A case-crossover analysis of forest fire haze events 2000-to-2007

showed an immediate increase of 19% in respiratory mortality and also

the immediate and delayed effects on mortality.


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Impact (Economic) Impact of Haze

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Type of damage RM Million %

Productivity loss during

the state of emergency 393.51 49.1

Decline in tourist arrivals 318.55 39.7

Decline in fish landings 40.58 5

Cost of fire-fighting 25 3.1

Adjusted cost of illness 21.02 2.6

Cloud seeding 2.08 0.3

Expenditure on masks 0.71 0.1

Flight cancellations 0.45 0.1

Total damage cost 801.9 100

Aggregate value of haze damage in 1997

(Mohd Shahwahid & Othman 1999)

Impact (Agriculture) Impact of Haze

Reduction in total solar radiation can

affect crop productivity.

According to Nichol (1997), a research

by the Forest Research Institute of

Malaysia found that two varieties of

hybrid rice in Malaysia, MR151 and

MR123, experienced a 50% reduction

in growth rate and abnormal.

Paddy rice in Indonesia suffered a 2-3%

reduction in yield during the haze.

Henson (2001) found that haze effect

the palm oil productivity.


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Impact (Biodiversity) Impact of Haze


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Solutions rooted in socio-economics

1. Techno-Economic Approach

2. Peat & Water Management

3. Mitigating Measures during Haze Episode

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Recommendations:

2. Slash, not to burn, but to earn additional income

i. The concerned Government should consider

investing, through its privately linked companies, in the

development of biomass-to-material or biomass-to-

energy facilities through private-public equity

partnership


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Breakeven of electricity

selling price for

biomass-to-power in

Malaysian context

Slash, not to burn, but to earn additional income

Breakeven of ethanol selling

price for biomass-to-ethanol in

Malaysian context


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ii. The concerned Government should provide a

conducive investment environment, including low

interest rates, competitive or subsidised pricing or bio-

products, and well-planned concession areas*, in

order to promote investment in the proposed facilities.

*Concession area refers to the

size of a land area large enough

to support a sustainable supply

of biomass to a designated

conversion facility, and close

enough to the facility

Slash, not to burn, but to earn additional income A. Bakar Jaafar-ASM Haze Task Force @ASM

STIPAC Meeting

Techno Economic Approach:

Ethanol Production Cost Reduction by improving

Debt:Equity (D:E) Ratio or Interest Rate (iR) (USD/Litre)

20

ᵃ US NREL (2011)

ᵇ Adapted from US NREL analysis

Debt : Equity ratio Interest Rate

8% 5% 3%

95 : 5 0.77 0.61 0.52

70 : 30 0.73 0.60 0.53

60 : 40 0.71 (0.57a) 0.60 0.53

50 : 50 0.69 0.60 0.54

40 : 60 0.67 0.59 (0.52ᵇ) 0.54

Slash, not to burn, but to earn additional income

Public-Private Partnership


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Ethanol (E-85) retailed at USD 2.39/gallon=USD 0.58/litre

[http://www.ethanolretailer.com/images/uploads/whitepaper_retailersurvey.pdf]

Slash, not to burn, but to earn additional income A. Bakar Jaafar-ASM Haze Task Force @ASM

STIPAC Meeting

http://www.ethanolretailer.com/images/uploads/whitepaper_retailersurvey.pdf

22

Recommendations:

2b. The proposed conversion of biomass to energy is viable

i. The private sector ought to be encouraged to take the

lead in the proposed investments, with the

participation of government investment arms or

government linked companies, and with the

cooperation of local communities made up of farmers,

settlers, smallholders, and adjacent plantation

companies.


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ii. Interested parties should conduct the necessary techno-

economic environmental feasibility studies prior to investment,

namely, conversion of biomass to ethanol or biomass to

electricity, or if not, hydrogen fuel by mobile* gasification and

hydrogen generation (by electrolysis) unit.

*This is an alternative to overcoming the high cost of logistics to

centralised facilities.

The price of ethanol with different capacity and

capacity cost

The proposed conversion of biomass to energy is viable


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http://www.mybiomass.com.my/business/

25

Recommendations:

3. Water management, critical in peat areas, planted & non-planted

i. Those who have received governmental permission to

develop peat areas for plantation or any other agro-

forestry land development should carry out the following

measures to reduce the fire risk:

a) suitable site selection,

b) maintenance of natural drainage or sound drain

development,

c) land clearing and stacking,

d) compaction, and

e) re-compaction.

;


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ii. Those who have already developed plantations in the peat areas should

make it a priority to maintain a high water table by containing stream flows

throughout the plantation irrigation systems

Manage peat, keep the fire away


26


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iii. Disturbed, abandoned, or underdeveloped peat areas

should be identified and promoted for investments and

rehabilitation by undertaking the above measures (3 (i)

and (ii)) in order for such lands to be no longer a fire

hazard. Excess flood water could be redirected to

these areas to encourage rehabilitation and reversion

to its natural flow.

Manage peat, keep the fire away A. Bakar Jaafar-ASM Haze Task Force @ASM

STIPAC Meeting

Compartment 73 : 12 Aug 2012

Drained Land – Prone to Fire

Forest burnt in 2012 along drainage canal

28

Manage peat, keep the fire away A. Bakar Jaafar-ASM Haze Task Force @ASM

STIPAC Meeting

Compartment 73 : March 2014

Canal Block raised up water level

Natural Regeneration Taken Place

Peatland Centre of Excellence

Natural recovery in 18 months with high water table



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Recovery of degraded forest 4 years after blocking drains



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i. The enforcement

agencies must step up

measures such that

no open burning be

allowed, particularly

during the southwest

monsoon period from

months of June to

early October

4. LOCAL MITIGATION MEASURE: Not at all times transboundary haze could be effectively

controlled, particularly during the inversion period

Recommendations:


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SOURCES OF

AIR POLLUTION

POLLUTION LOAD

Percentage of

Contribution (%)

ORDER OF

MITIGATING MEASURE

Transboundary

External,

Unquantified,

Uncontrolled

External Relations,

Science Diplomacy

Others 2 4th

Industrial Emission 4 Third

Power Plants 24 Second

Mobile Sources 70 First

Mitigating measures during haze episode Proposed Order of Action Line

ii. A local contingency plan be developed and put into

operations during any severe haze episode in order to

reduce local sources of pollution by the source

apportionment method.

Seeing through the haze A. Bakar Jaafar-ASM Haze Task Force @ASM

STIPAC Meeting

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The emission of pollutants in year 2010


STIPAC Meeting

Ca2+

Mg2+

Al

Fe Li Co

Cu Mn Sr U

0

100

F2: Mineral dust

Sulfate

Ammonium

K+ Rb Se

0

100

F3: Mixed SIA & biomass burning

Nitrite Nitrate

Pb Zn

As Cd

Bi Rb

Se BC

0

100

F4: Industrial and Traffic Emissions

Cl-

Na+

Ca2+

Mg2+

0

100

F5: Sea salt

Sulfate Ammonium Ga

Ni Sr V

0

100

PM

2.5

Cl-

Nit

rite

Nit

rate

Su

lfat

e

Na+

Amm…

K+

Ca2

+

Mg2+ Al

Ba

Fe

Pb

Zn

As

Cd Li

Bi

Cs

Co

Cu

Ga

Mn

Ni

Rb

Se Sr U V

BC

F1: Combustion of Fuel

4.94

4.24

3.95

11.28

11.72

36.92

2.93

1.85 4.67

4.62

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

80.00

90.00

100.00

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

ANNUAL HAZE

T (

oC

) /

RH

(%

) /

Rai

nfa

ll (

mm

) /

WS

(m

s-1)

So

urc

e co

ntr

ibu

tio

n, µ

g m

-3 /

in

per

cen

tage

of

PM

2.5

T

RH

Rainfall

WS

34

PMF-MLR Source apportionment:

PM2.5 chemical composition (Inorganic & BC)


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Determination of PM2.5 sources – Haze and Non Haze Assumption if API is 300 PM10 = 286, ug/m3, PM2.5 =201

UD 82 ug/m3

Transboundary Haze 50 ug/m3

Sea Salt 9 ug/m3

Mineral Dust 23 ug/m3

Local Burning 24 ug/m3

Industrial and Traffic Emissions4 ug/m3

Fuel Combustion 8 ug/m3

Transboundar

y and

Natural

Sources

Local Sources

Mixed Sources

35

41%

25%

11%

9%

12% 4% 2%


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API Status Health Effect

0 - 50 Good Low pollution without any bad effect on health

51-100 Moderate Moderate pollution that does not pose any bad

effect on health

101-200 Unhealthy Worsen the health condition of high risk people

who is the people with heart and lung

complications

201-300 Very

unhealthy

Worsen the health condition and low tolerance of

physical exercises to people with heart & lung

complications. Affect public health

301-500 Hazardous Hazardous to high risk people & public health

(DOE 2015)

Value of API & the Health Effect Air Quality Monitoring Network

36


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5. PRECAUTIONARY MEASURE:

El Niño does significantly influence the severity of

haze, and it is now possible to predict any El Niño

event 6 months ahead of time thanks to well-

established forecasting systems already in place


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Correlation Maps (PJ annual PM10 index & Quasi-Global Sea Surface Temperature)

El-Niño & its influence on haze

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i. The relevant authority should disseminate the forecast

and alert all concerned.

Recommendations:


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Forecasts issued at the end of Oct 2015

ii. Every relevant authority and other concerned stakeholders take

precautionary measures, well in advance before any El Niño

event set in.


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Flooding

Drought &

Forest Fires

Declare emergency if

water crisis

continues!!

February 2016


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42

Recommendations:

6. Gaps in our knowledge & Further Studies

i. Systems studies, including

socio-economic and legal

implications of the

proposed local contingency

plans to respond in the

event of severe haze

episode, be undertaken in

order to formulate the

detailed measures to

control local sources of

pollution.


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ii. R&D, including radioisotope tracing and modelling

studies, on the high percentage of unidentified

sources of pollution be carried out.

Research & development areas


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iii. To better understand the impact of haze towards health,

social life and economy, studies need to be conducted

especially in the areas that most affected by haze

episodes in Malaysia. Study on health should focus on

the toxicological properties of haze particles and

systematically assess the health and social burden of

diseases due to haze episodes.

Among others are:

a) Epidemiological study on the burden of

diseases of air pollutants;

b) Toxicity assessment of particulates from forest

fires; and

c) Evaluation of the indoor school environment

during haze episodes.

Research & development areas A. Bakar Jaafar-ASM Haze Task Force @ASM

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iv. There is a need for more research and funding in the

area relating to potential biomass utilisation directly

related to the mitigation of the haze problem, as well

as the development of databases and support systems

for researchers.

The choice of technology or combination of

technologies to be selected for possible demonstration

or even commercialisation requires a more detailed

study. This is to determine with greater accuracy on the

investments needed and the possible economic returns

to complement the social and environmental benefits of

potential solutions to the haze problem.



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Biomass-to-Resources Potential Roadmap


H2 Fuel


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Recommendation:

7. SCIENCE DIPLOMACY: Communicating the sciences, for all

i. At the policy-making level, the importance of communicating

scientific findings to support policy development is especially

important. A better communication policy could be realised by

better coordination of research conducted by research

institutions, better use of social media to promote and create

public dialogue on critical issues, multi-stakeholder activities such

as field visits and active public engagement with governmental

agencies to positively influence the policy process.

“How can current scientific knowledge be synthesised and

translated into policy-relevant information to aid policy and

decision-making, management and to suggest further research?”


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INPUTS ACTIVITIES OUTPUTS OUTCOMES IMPACTS

• Money •RM 124,210

• Infrastructure •Database

• Knowledge •Subject

Matter

Experts

• People /

Networks • Steering • WGs members • ROs • Government officials,

industry, academia

• Meetings

• Workshops

• Stakeholder

Engagement

• Integrated mixed

research

methods • Literature review

(books, journal,

news, patents database)

• Case studies • Biomass mapping • Financial

modelling

• haze.academy.g

ov.my

• Intellectual

capital • Position Paper • Advisory Report • NJM

• Relational Capital • Quadruple helix

• Structural Capital • Database on

• Air quality and

haze episodes • Peat area and

water management

• Waste to resources: Energy or

Materials

• Strategic

interventions • provide

evidence-

based

information

• to establish

Malaysia’s

stand/

position

• for science

diplomacy

at regional

level

• Implementation of related

policies and

regulations

• Reduced

environment

& health risks

• Sustainable

best practices

• Haze free

region

8. Logical framework A. Bakar Jaafar-ASM Haze Task Force @ASM

STIPAC Meeting

48

http://haze.akademisains.gov.my/

http://haze.akademisains.gov.my/

Ministry Memorandum

to Cabinet

ASM ASM Position

Paper

ASM Council ASM Haze

Report

ASM

Committee

ASM Draft Final

Report

ASM TF TF Draft TF Final Draft TF Report TF Draft Policy

Summary

ASM WG1 WG Draft WG Final Draft WG Report



Member(s) Discussion

Paper

Working Paper Conference

Paper

ASM S&T

Journal Article

[The Next Step Forward]


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50

Acknowledgement

50

organisations


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Acknowledgement

119 individuals


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asm transboundary haze studyhaze.akademisains.gov.my/download/asm-stipac 2nd june 2016.pdf · asm...

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