ASPO-Australia

Peak Oil, Petrol Prices, Climate Change & Rural Communities

Dr Jim Barson

Convenor of the Health Sector Working Group ASPO-Australia

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Introduction

Overview The Rural Economy Transport Travel & Tourism Industry &Employment Population Health Service Delivery

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General Observations

Prediction is hard, especially about the future!

Peak oil will happen in stages T1-T4 The global situation will set the stage Australia is lucky with large reserves of

natural gas, although not where we want it. Potential for mitigation

Climate Change is a lot scarier than Peak Oil and they have a common solution set

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The Rural Economy

The rural economy could behave differently to the cities

Relocalisation could be seen as a natural response to ↓ mobility?

This might reverse the population drift to the cities

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The Rural Economy

Rural areas have some advantages Capacity for self sufficiency Rural and regional towns could

function very well with reduced car transport

Identity and sense of community

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The Rural Economy

Rural areas have some disadvantages Fuel prices will be higher with a wider

spread, instability and possible shortages

Starting from a lower income base Less diversity of industry to start with Services stretched by distance

Road maintenance Waste collection Power, water etc.

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Employment & Business in Rural Communities Some industrial, transport and tourism

based employment will likely decrease Some local employment will likely

increase Local small scale (+/-organic) food

production will be competitive Local ingenuity & innovation Repair, reuse, recycle, reduce Local services

Some services will have to decentralise and expand locally eg. hospitals

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Employment & Business in Rural Communities Local and seasonal food will be cost

competitive Local business will be more competitive Possibly less ‘Big Box’ retail ‘Captive Population’ to support small

retailers New technology business opportunities

will arise as mobility becomes more expensive.

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Farming Industry Employment Industrial farming is very energy

intensive Fuel Fertiliser Chemicals

Farming with less petroleum will employ a lot more labour.

Cuba is an interesting case study

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Tourism Huge employer What will happen to overall numbers?

International visitors (Airfares ? ↑) Overall economy (? ↓) Local tourism ↓ with fuel prices ↑

What will happen to short stay B&B ? Will there be an increase in the longer

stay accommodation? What will happen to the holiday home

market? Local strategies in marketing and

mobility will be important

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Transport & Travel

Railways are vitally important as they very fuel efficient and should be rebuilt and expanded as a matter of urgency

Road transport will probably decline unless CNG and LNG come on stream soon

Public and active transport should increase

Small communities will benefit from being linked with minibuses, bike trails and walking tracks

Community ride share programs

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Transport & Travel

Sustained high and continuously rising fuel prices will impact on mobility and redefine boundaries

Urban Urban-Fringe Regional Rural Remote

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Transport & Travel

Personal mobility will probably decline

If car ownership declines?Only the wealthy elite?Impact on social cohesion?Anti-democratic

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Population in Rural and Regional towns

Life without a car will be possible

Work Education Food Fun

Local food and industry Sense of community Livable, walkable scale Car free existence possible Critical population for markets, skills,

infrastructure

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Population in Rural and Regional towns How big is big enough? How big is too big? ‘Goldilocks Solution’

Zoning to prevent sprawl Development as linked self sufficient

villages

Folke, G. Ruralisation- Integrating Settlements and Agriculture to provide Sustainability

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Health Service Delivery

World class system Big problems on the horizon Costs unsustainable on current trends Aging population Unreasonable expectations Peak oil timing could not be worse Things have to change Who gets what, where, when, how, and

at whose expense?

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Peak Oil and Healthcare

Deterioration of the economy Government Business

Unsustainable complexity Decreased mobility for patients and staff Increased costs for all material inputs Need to decrease use of disposables Logistics of drugs and essential goods Service delivery

Food, linen, waste Outsourcing reversal

Will the private practice model of medicine survive Peak Oil?

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Peak Oil and Rural Healthcare Redefining boundaries

Geographic mobility Procedural complexity

Increased role for small hospitals Increased demand on country

doctors Training and support

Reassessment of risk management

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Some Ideas for Healthcare Delivery High speed broadband

‘Stranded’ Patient ↔ Consultant ‘Stranded’ GP ↔ Consultant

Live in facilities for staff Mobile service delivery Support for local industries

Generic drugs Generic equipment

Health funding priorities Smart card fuel rationing Rationing of treatments Community discussion and comment

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Things to do as a Community Talk about Peak Oil and Climate

Change Be frugal with fuel Improve efficiency Continue to work on alternative

fuels such biodiesel, CNG, LNG

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Things to do as Individuals

Get out of debt, economise, think of how you might live on half your income

Move to the non-discretionary side of the economy, aim to satisfy needs not wants

Reduce, reuse, repair, recycle Produce as much as you can of what you need

and something of value to others Get to know the neighbours, share skills and

resources, nobody can do everything but everyone can do something.

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