assessing climatic vulnerability and projecting...
TRANSCRIPT
Summary Results of Rice Crop
Impact Assessment and Adaptation Analysis
AgMIP TEAM-PAKISTAN
Assessing Climatic Vulnerability and Projecting Crop Productivity Using Integrated Crop and Economic
Modeling Techniques
RESEARCH TEAM
Ashfaq Ahmad (PI, Crop Modeler)
Gerrit Hoogenboom(ARP)
Muhammad Ashfaq (Co-PI, Agri. Economist)
Syed Aftab Wajid (Co-PI, Crop Modeler)
Tasneem Khaliq (Co-PI, Crop Modeler)
Shakeel Ahmad (Co-PI, Crop Modeler)
Ghulam Rasul (Co-PI, Meteorologist)
Wajid Nasim (Co-PI, Crop Modeler)
Ahsan Raza Sattar (Co-PI, IT)
INSTITUTES
o University of Agriculture Faisalabad,(UAF) Pakistan, (The lead
institute)
www.uaf.edu.pk
o Bahauddin Zakariya University, Multan
www.bzu.edu.pk
o COMSATS Institute of Information Technology, (CIIT), Vehari
o Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD), Islamabad
o Pir Mehr Ali Shah Arid Agriculture University, Rawalpindi
www.uaar.edu.pk
MAP OF PROJECT COVERAGE
SAMPLED RICE DISTRICTS
WHEAT DISTRICTS
Calibration on DSSAT completed
COTTON DISTRICTS
Map of Locations showing Climate Datasets for Rice
WEATHER SUMMARY (Temp C0)
WEATHER SUMMARY (Temp C0)
MANAGEMENT DATA
In field survey, management data on following aspects were collected
Previous crops and residues
Tillage practices
Volume and number of Irrigations
Seed rates and Sowing dates
Fertilizer application rates and dates
Pesticides application rates and dates
Harvesting date and method
Harvested and Biological yield
Socio-economic variables
SOIL DATA
Initial Condition
Data on initial conditions were collected by district soil
laboratories (available water and nitrogen %)
For soil series, data were collected by Federal Soil
Survey Department
Federal Soil Survey Department provided data on pH,
organic matter, sand, silt and clay percentage
Missing values were recalculated by S-Build
NAMES OF DIFFERENT SOIL SERIES USED FOR RICE
Kotli Soil Series
Sultanpur Soil Series
Kunjah Soil Series
Sialkot Soil Series
Eminaabad Soil Series
Khurrianwala Soil Series
Sagar Soil Series
Shahpur Soil Series
Pindorian Soil Series
(CONTI….)
GENETIC COEFFICIENTS
Cultivars P1 P2O P2R P5 G1 G2 G3 G4
Basmati-385 205.0 270.0 439.0 11.7 46.0 0.027 1.0 0.80
Super
Basmati
400.0 102.0 510.0 11.0 48.0 0.022 1.0 1.0
Basmati-
2000
400.0 104.0 495.0 11.0 50.0 0.019 1.0 1.0
DESCRIPTION OF GENETIC COEFFICIENT
P1 Time period (expressed as growing degree days [GDD] in øC above a
base temperature of 9øC)
P2O Critical photoperiod or the longest day length (in hours) at which the
development occurs at a maximum rate
P2R Extent to which phasic development leading to panicle initiation is
delayed (expressed as GDD in øC)
P5 Time period in GDD øC) from beginning of grain filling
G1 Potential spikelet number coefficient as estimated from the number of
spikelets
G2 Single grain weight (g)
G3 Tillering coefficient
G4 Temperature tolerance coefficient
FAST TRACK FARMERS FIELD EVALUATION
y = 0.81x + 629.05 R² = 0.5051
3600
3800
4000
4200
4400
4600
4800
3600 3800 4000 4200 4400 4600 4800 5000
RMSE = 256.82 d-stat = 0.70 R2 = 0.50
Observed yield kg ha-1
Sim
ula
ted
gra
in y
ield
kg h
a-1
2633
3133
3633
4133
4633
5133
5633
6133
2633 3133 3633 4133 4633 5133 5633 6133
Sim
ula
ted
Yie
ld K
g/ha
Observed Yield Kg/ha
RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN OBSERVED AND SIMULATED YIELD OF 150 FARMERS
RMSE= 510.767
d-Stat= 0.78
R2= 0.61
600050004000300020001000
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
Observed yield kg/ha
pro
ba
bili
tie
sFREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION OF OBSERVED RICE
YIELD Kg/Hec
50004500400035003000
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
Simulated
pro
ba
blit
ies
FREQUENCY DISTRIBUTION OF SIMULATED RICE
YIELD Kg/Ha
DISTRICT WISE RESULTS
District Sheikhupura Baseline vs Near, Mid and Late
Century Scenarios using RCPs 4.5 and 8.5
0
2000
4000
6000
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31
Yie
ld k
g/h
a
Farmers
Baseline
Near Century 4.5
0
2000
4000
6000
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31
Yie
ld k
g/h
a
Farmers
Baseline
Mid Century 4.5
0
2000
4000
6000
1 3 5 7 9 1113151719212325272931
Yie
ld k
g/h
a
Farmers
Baseline
End Century 4.5
0
2000
4000
6000
1 3 5 7 9 1113151719212325272931
Yie
ld k
g/h
a
Farmers
Baseline
Near Century 8.5
0
2000
4000
6000
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31
Yie
ld k
g/h
a
Farmers
Baseline
Mid Century 8.5
0
2000
4000
6000
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31
Yie
ld k
g/h
a
Farmers
Baseline
End Century 8.5
District Nankana Sahib Baseline vs Near, Mid and
Late Century Scenarios using RCPs 4.5 and 8.5
0100020003000400050006000
1 3 5 7 9 11131517192123252729
Yie
ld k
g/h
a
Farmers
Baseline
Near Century 4.5
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28
Yie
ld k
g/h
a
Farmers
Baseline
Mid Century 4.5
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
1 3 5 7 9 11131517192123252729
Yie
ld k
g/h
a
Farmers
Baseline
End Century 4.5
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
1 3 5 7 91
1
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
Yie
ld k
g/h
a
Farmers
Baseline
Near Century 8.5
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28
Yie
ld k
g/h
a
Farmers
Baseline
Mid Century 8.5
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
1 3 5 7 9 11131517192123252729
Yie
ld k
g/h
a
Farmers
Baseline
End Century 8.5
District Sialkot Baseline vs Near, Mid and Late Century
Scenarios using RCPs 4.5 and 8.5
0
2000
4000
6000
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31
Yie
ldkg/h
a
Farmers
Base Line
Near Century 8.5
0
2000
4000
6000
1 3 5 7 9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
31
Yie
ld k
g/h
a
Farmers
Base Line
End of Century 4.5
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
1 3 5 7 9 1113151719212325272931
Yie
ld k
g/h
a
Farmers
Base Line
End century 8.5
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31
Yie
ld k
g/h
a
Farmers
Base Line
Mid century 8.5
0
2000
4000
6000
1 3 5 7 9 1113151719212325272931
Yie
ld k
g/h
a
Farmers
Base Line
Near Century 4.5
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
1 3 5 7 9 1113151719212325272931
Yie
ld k
g/h
a
Farmers
Base Line
Mid of Century 4.5
District Gujranwala Baseline vs Near, Mid and Late
Century Scenarios using RCPs 4.5 and 8.5
0
2000
4000
6000
1 3 5 7 91
11
31
51
71
92
12
32
52
72
93
1
Yie
ld k
g/h
a
Farmers
Baseline
Near Century 4.5
0
2000
4000
6000
1 3 5 7 9 1113151719212325272931
Yie
ld k
g/h
a
Farmers
Baseline
Mid Century 4.5
0
2000
4000
6000
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31
Yie
ld k
g/h
a
Farmers
Baseline
End Century 4.5
0
2000
4000
6000
1 3 5 7 9 1113151719212325272931
Yie
ld k
g/h
a
Farmers
Baseline
Near Century 8.5
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
1 3 5 7 9 1113151719212325272931
Yie
ld k
g/h
a
Farmers
Baseline
Mid Century 8.5
0
2000
4000
6000
1 3 5 7 9 1113151719212325272931
Yild k
g/h
a
Farmers
Baseline
End of Century 8.5
District Hafizabad Baseline vs Near, Mid and Late
Century Scenarios using RCPs 4.5 and 8.5
0
2000
4000
6000
1 3 5 7 9 11131517192123252729
Yie
ld k
g/h
a
Farmers
Baseline
Near Century 4.5
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
1 3 5 7 9 11131517192123252729
Yie
ld k
g/h
a
Farmers
Baseline
Mid Century 4.5
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29
Yie
ld k
g/h
a
Farmers
Baseline
End Century 4.5
0
2000
4000
6000
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28
Yie
ld k
g/h
a
Farmers
Baseline
Near Century 8.5
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28
Yie
ld k
g/h
a
Farmers
Baseline
Mid Century 8.5
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29
Yie
ld k
g/h
a
Farmers
Baseline
End Century 8.5
Baseline vs Near, Mid and Late Century Scenarios using RCPs 4.5
and 8.5 for 150 Farmers
0
2000
4000
6000
1 16 31 46 61 76 91 106121136151
Yie
ld k
g/h
a
Farmers
Baseline
Near Century 4.5
0
2000
4000
6000
1 16 31 46 61 76 91 106121136151
Yie
ld k
g/h
a
Farmers
Baseline
Mid Century 4.5
0
2000
4000
6000
1 16 31 46 61 76 91 106121136151
Yie
ld k
g/h
a
Farmers
Baseline
Near Centurt 8.5
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
1 16 31 46 61 76 91 106121136151
Yie
ld k
g/h
a
Farmers
Baseline
Mid Century 8.5
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
1 16 31 46 61 76 91 106121136151
Yie
ld k
g/h
a
Farmers
Baseline
End Century 8.50
2000
4000
6000
1 16 31 46 61 76 91 106121136151
Yie
ld k
g/h
a
Farmers
Baseline
End Century 4.5
Components and features of AgMIP Pakistan-Datanode
The AgMIP data node and web portal has been
established where all stake holders can put data for
sharing purpose www.agmip.pk
ftp has started working ftp.agmip.pk
Posting of data file on secured medium
The data merging tool were developed
Two translation software developed for create new
ACMO-files from DSSAT output file.
Rice Crop Impact Assessment
Project Country Location Climate
Scenario
Crop
Modeled
Number
of Strata
Number
of Farms
Analysis
units
CC-IA Pakistan Rice Zone
RCP-4.5
&
RCP-8.5
Rice 5
150
Per Farm
Yields Summary Early Century (2010-2039)
Location Stratum Climate
Scenario Base Period
Yield (Kgs) Base Period
Simulated
Yield (Kgs)
(S1)
Future
Simulated
Yield (Kgs)
(S2)
Time
Averaged
Relative
Yield
(r)
Predicted
Future Yield
(Time
Averaged(Y2)
(Kgs)
Crop
Model
used
Sheikhupura 1 RCP-4.5 16552.63 16615.81 14268.96 0.86 14209.44
DSSAT
1 RCP-8.5 16552.63 16615.81 11884.10 0.72 11848.3
Nankana 2 RCP-4.5 19175.79 19531.17 15894.42 0.82 15422.42
2 RCP-8.5 19175.79 19531.17 16644.63 0.85 16448.49
Hafizabad 3 RCP-4.5 19019.95 21225.87 18880.37 0.89 16969.97
3 RCP-8.5 19019.95 21225.87 17431.23 0.82 15724.57
Gujranwala 4 RCP-4.5 19590.96 17124.07 15413.17 0.9 17596.95
4 RCP-8.5 19590.96 17124.07 14113.68 0.83 16079.07
Sialkot 5 RCP-4.5 17540.36 15543.76 14956.00 0.96 16979.81
5 RCP-8.5 17540.36 15543.76 15014.73 0.97 17068.23
Yields Summary Mid Century (2040-2069)
Location Stratum Climate
Scenario Base Period
Yield (Kgs) Base Period
Simulated
Yield (Kgs)
(S1)
Future
Simulated
Yield (Kgs)
(S2)
Time
Averaged
Relative
Yield
(r)
Predicted
Future Yield
(Time
Averaged(Y2)
(Kgs)
Crop
Model
used
Sheikhupura 1 RCP-4.5 16552.63 16615.82 12684.25 0.76 10310.69
DSSAT
1 RCP-8.5 16552.63 16615.82 9818.43 0.59 9802.60
Nankana 2 RCP-4.5 19175.79 19531.17 14637.03 0.75 14813.43
2 RCP-8.5 19175.79 19531.17 11939.43 0.61 11732.62
Hafizabad 3 RCP-4.5 19019.95 21225.88 17874.99 0.84 16141.20
3 RCP-8.5 19019.95 21225.88 16706.47 0.79 15041.95
Gujranwala 4 RCP-4.5 19590.96 17124.07 13970.34 0.82 15920.71
4 RCP-8.5 19590.96 17124.07 11109.72 0.65 12509.12
Sialkot 5 RCP-4.5 17540.37 15543.76 14224.22 0.91 10310.69
5 RCP-8.5 17540.37 15543.76 9583.78 0.62 10272.84
Yields Summary End Century (2070-2099)
Location Stratum Climate
Scenario Base Period
Yield (Kgs) Base Period
Simulated
Yield (Kgs)
(S1)
Future
Simulated
Yield (Kgs)
(S2)
Time
Averaged
Relative
Yield
(r)
Predicted
Future Yield
(Time
Averaged(Y2)
(Kgs)
Crop
Model
used
Sheikhupura 1 RCP-4.5 16552.63 16615.82 10636.53 0.64 10612.26
DSSAT
1 RCP-8.5 16552.63 16615.82 6482.06 0.39 6545.18
Nankana 2 RCP-4.5 19175.79 19531.17 13360.05 0.68 13326.32
2 RCP-8.5 19175.79 19531.17 10392.03 0.53 10496.20
Hafizabad 3 RCP-4.5 19019.95 21225.88 17053.34 0.81 15368.92
3 RCP-8.5 19019.95 21225.88 16053.16 0.75 14305.90
Gujranwala 4 RCP-4.5 19590.96 17124.07 11697.45 0.69 13218.02
4 RCP-8.5 19590.96 17124.07 10221.49 0.59 11148.33
Sialkot 5 RCP-4.5 17540.37 15543.76 12614.89 0.81 14226.41
5 RCP-8.5 17540.37 15543.76 9047.47 0.58 10168.12
RESULTS (Without Adaptation)
Aggregated Gains and losses (Early Century)
Stratum Climate
Scenario
Gainers (%) Gains (As a
Percent Of
Mean Net
Farm
Returns)
Losses (As a
Percent Of
Mean Net
Farm
Returns)
Net Losses
(As a Percent
Of Mean Net
Farm
Returns)
All 5 Stratum RCP-4.5 3.4 0.51 36.07 35.56
All 5 Stratum RCP-8.5 7 50.8 702.55 651.75
Aggregated Gains and Losses Mid Century
Stratum Climate
Scenario
Gainers (%) Gains (As a
Percent Of
Mean Net
Farm
Returns)
Losses (As a
Percent Of
Mean Net
Farm
Returns)
Net Losses
(As a Percent
Of Mean Net
Farm
Returns)
All 5 Stratum RCP-4.5 0.75 5.03 582.29 577.25
All 5 Stratum RCP-8.5 0.63 5.93 446.97 441.04
Aggregated Gains and Losses End Century
Stratum Climate
Scenario
Gainers (%) Gains (As a
Percent Of
Mean Net
Farm
Returns)
Losses (As a
Percent Of
Mean Net
Farm
Returns)
Net Losses
(As a Percent
Of Mean Net
Farm
Returns)
All 5 Stratum RCP-4.5 0.65 6.32 572.11 565.79
All 5 Stratum RCP-8.5 1 9.02 351.46 342.43
Distribution of Gainers & Losers (RCP-4.5)
-600000
-400000
-200000
0
200000
400000
600000
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
OP
PC
OS
T
Gainers & Losers (%)
Mid Century
-20000000
-15000000
-10000000
-5000000
0
5000000
10000000
15000000
20000000
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
OP
PC
OS
T
Gainers & Losers(%)
Early Century
-20000000
-15000000
-10000000
-5000000
0
5000000
10000000
15000000
20000000
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
OP
PC
OS
T
Gainers & Losers (%)
End Century
Distribution of Gainers & Losers in (RCP-8.5)
-30000000
-20000000
-10000000
0
10000000
20000000
30000000
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
OP
PC
OS
T
Gainers & Losers
Early Century
Mid Century
-20000000
-15000000
-10000000
-5000000
0
5000000
10000000
15000000
20000000
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
OP
PC
OS
T
Gainers & Losers (%) End Century
-15000000
-10000000
-5000000
0
5000000
10000000
15000000
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
OP
PC
OS
T
Gainers & Losers (%)
OVERALL ADAPTATION RESULTS
S1: Changed Climate – Base Technology
S2: Changed Climate – Changed Technology
Time
Slice Scenrio
Mean farm net returns
(Rupees/Season) Poverty Rate (%)
Per capita income
(Rupees/person/Season)
All Farms Non
Adopters Adopters All
Farms Non
Adopters Adopters All
Farms Non
Adopters Adopters
Early
Century
RCP-4.5 264191.77 184964.41 347289.88 33.01 44.60 19.94 29572.11 20709.87 38865.92
RCP-8.5 245730.49 172054.38 350304.29 8.38 11.44 3.93 27640.17 19314.71 39314.65
Mid
Century
RCP-4.5 1339191.50 -269394.38 1339194.86 3.29 84.87 3.29 120939.05 -24575.82 120939.32
RCP-8.5 202840.11 136858.76 334264.55 65.23 79.95 33.92 18614.78 12762.81 30237.95
End
Century
RCP-4.5 333023.87 73551.28 490881.18 10.75 22.34 4.20 28624.52 6558.24 42035.25
RCP-8.5 241429.28 74244.89 393888.16 11.72 20.17 4.15 21076.01 6595.57 34084.39
Distribution of Adopters & Non Adopters (RCP-4.5)
-2000000
-1500000
-1000000
-500000
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
OP
PC
OS
T
Adopters & Non Adopters (%)
S1: Changed Climate – Base Technology
S2: Changed Climate – Changed Technology
Early Century
End Century
Mid Century
-8000000
-6000000
-4000000
-2000000
0
2000000
4000000
6000000
8000000
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
OP
PC
OS
T
Adaptors & Non Adopters (%)
-2000000
-1000000
0
1000000
2000000
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
OP
PC
OS
T
Adaptors & Non Adopters(%)
Distribution of Adopters & Non Adopters (RCP-8.5)
-2000000
-1500000
-1000000
-500000
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
OP
PC
OS
T
Adaptors & Non Adopters (%)
S1: Changed Climate – Base Technology
S2: Changed Climate – Changed Technology
Early Century
Mid Century
-1000000
-500000
0
500000
1000000
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
OP
PC
OS
T
Adaptors & Non Adopters (%)
End Century
-1500000
-1000000
-500000
0
500000
1000000
1500000
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
OP
PC
OS
T
Adaptors & Non Adopters (%)
Proposed Publications (Crop Modeling)
Accessing risk, reducing vulnerability, and
developing adaptation for food security of rice
region
Application of DSSAT and APSIM for climate risk
management in rice production
Simulating the climate change temporal and spatial
variation in rice region of Pakistan
PROPOSED PUBLICATIONS (ECONOMICS)
•Vulnerability of Agricultural Systems to Climate Change and
Impact of Economic Adaptation on the rice farmers in Punjab,
Pakistan
•Multidimensional Impact Assessment of the trade-offs caused by
climate change: A case of rice farmers of Punjab, Pakistan
•Integrated Impact Assessment of adaptation strategies in Punjab:
Comparison of different climate and crop models
•Representative Agricultural Pathways: A transdisciplinary
approach towards Impact Assessment and adaptation strategies
THANKS