Thao Pham, Agapol Junpen, Penwadee Cheewaphongphan, Atthipthep Boonman, Orachorn Kamnoet, Sitthipong Pengjan, Savitri Garivait

King Mongkut’s University of Technology Thonburi, Bangkok, Thailand

&Suphat Wangwongwattana

Thammasat University, Bangkok, ThailandRegional Resource Centre for Asia and the Pacific, Asian Institute of Technology

Assessment of Health Benefit from Air Quality Improvement in Thailand:

From Concept to Applications

Air Quality Situation in Thailand

2

▪ Two major problem: O3 and PM2.5

▪ Exceedance of national standard occurs in Bangkok Metropolitan region (BMR) and Northern part of Thailand during dry season: Nov – Mar

3

Air Quality Situation in Bangkok

Source: The Pollution Control Department, Thailand

Annual PM 2.5 ambient concentration is on the way to meet National Standard. However, there are still episode during dry season.

4

Air Quality Management Framework

Source: www.cleanairasia.org/ibaq

GAINS Model

Data Input• Energy or Fuel Consumption• Combustion Technology• Engine Technology• Fuel Characteristic• Control Technology• Economic Factors

Result• Thailand’s GHG

emissions & air pollutants (base year 2015)

GIS

Other data Input• Information on

Emissions Spatial and Temporal Distribution

• Gridded 12 x 12 km & 1 x 1 km (BMR)

Result• Gridded of GHG

and Air Pollutants Emissions

CAMxModel

Other Data Input• Meteorological data• Emissions Boundary

Result• Modeled Air

Pollutant ConcentrationStatistical

Analysis / AQM

Validation

Data Input• Monitored or

Observed Air Pollutant Concentration

Result• Uncertainty in

AQ modeling and Emission Inventory

Tool Tool

Tool Tool

1) Emission Inventory

2) AQ Simulation3) AQ Simulation & Emission Validation

Air Benefit Assessment Framework

5

GAINS Model

Data Input• Energy or Fuel Consumption• Combustion Technology• Engine Technology• Fuel Characteristic• Control Technology• Economic Factors

Result• Thailand’s GHG

emissions & air pollutants (base year 2015)

GIS

Other data Input• Information on

Emissions Spatial and Temporal Distribution

• Gridded 12 x 12 km & 1 x 1 km (BMR)

Result• Gridded of GHG

and Air Pollutants Emissions

CAMxModel

Other Data Input• Meteorological data• Emissions Boundary

Result• Modeled Air

Pollutant ConcentrationStatistical

Analysis

Data Input• Monitored or

Observed Air Pollutant Concentration

Result• Uncertainty in AQ

modeling and Emission Inventory

Tool Tool

Tool Tool

1) Emission Inventory

2) AQ Simulation3) AQ modeling & Emission Validation4. Emission Projection Scenarios5. Future Emissions Reduction

Scenarios6. Air Benefit from Emission

Reduction Assessment7. Health Benefit Assessment8. Emission Reduction Cost

Assessment9. Cost-Benefit Analysis and Effective

Emission Reduction Strategy Assessment

6

Air Benefit Assessment Framework

BenMAP

Emissions

Emissions 2015-Bangkok Metropolitan Region

Source: BMR TCAP_2015_Emissions

AQ Simulation Experiment to Assess Air Benefits from Euro 5-6 Implementation

▪ Meteorological Condition using WRF

▪ Air Quality Model using CAMx

▪ On-road transport sector: Year 2035, 2050

▪ Other anthropogenic sources: 2015

8

(+) BAU: Continuously using Euro 4 during 2015-2050

(+) Scenario 1 (SC1): Light Duty Vehicle (LDT)---> new model euro 5 in 2023 all

model euro 5 in 2024, New model euro 6 in 2029 all model euro 6 in 2030

(+) Scenario 2 (SC2): Heavy Duty Vehicle (HDV) ---> Switch from Euro 4 to Euro 5

since year 2026 and euro 6 since year 2032

(+) Scenario 3 (SC3): SC1 + SC2 (LDV+HDV)

Emission Scenarios

AQ Simulations SettingsBMR

Thailand

10

Contribution of On-road Transport Emissions in BMR

mol/hour mol/hour

2015- PM Emissions All anthropogenic sources

2015- PM Emissions On road transport only

11

mol/hour

PM Emissions from On road TransportScenarios BAU vs SC3 Year 2035 & 2050

mol/hour mol/hour

mol/hour mol/hour

2015

2050_BAU 2050_SC3

2035_SC32035_BAU

Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program—Community Edition

• Open-source PC-based and graphic user interface-driven software program

• Estimates the number and economic value of adverse health outcomes

• Short tutorial available on BenMAP website

• Receive email updates: http://www.epa.gov/airquality/benmap/regis.html

14

BenMAP Software

15

Selecting Data for Benefit Assessment

▪ Air Quality ▪ Temporal (past, future, long term, short term) and horizontal (city, region, country

levels) ▪ Monitored or modelled data▪ Air quality data must be at same time scale as the epidemiological data (e.g. both use

an annual mean, or 8hr max, etc.)

▪ Population▪ Goal is to match the population characteristics (gender, age distribution) of the

epidemiological studies▪ Consider whether to use historical or projected population levels

▪ Incidence Rate▪ Baseline rates of death and disease must match the characteristics of the health

endpoint to be calculated (Location, Demographic characteristics, Year (historical/projected))

▪ BenMAP-CE contains baseline incidence rates matched to each health impact function for U.S., China and GBD tool

▪ Health Impact Epidemiology Function▪ Epidemiological Studies▪ BenMAP-CE contains over a hundred health impact functions

∆ Y = Yo (1-e -ß∆ PM) * Pop

17

Setting of Emissions Input:▪ On-road transport sector: 2 scenarios estimated for year 2035 and 2050 (1) BAU:

Business as Usual (BAU) – Euro 4; and (2) SC3: Euro 5 & Euro 6 implementation as planned,

▪ Other anthropogenic sources: included all sources estimated for year 2015,▪ Biomass burning / biogenic / influence from boundary emissions are included.

Air Benefit Data from Simulation

mg/m3 mg/m3

percentage percentage

Differences of PM2.5 (BAU_2035 vs SC3_2035) Differences of PM2.5 (BAU_2050 vs SC3_2050)

18

Population Data

▪ Data source: For BMA and vicinity (National Statistic Office)▪ Key features: Gender, age, socio-economic, etc. distribution▪ Population Trends: Population Projection for Thailand 2010-2040 (Office of the

National Economic and Social Development Board)

Spatial Distribution of Population in BMR Trends of Population in BMR

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

Bangkok Nonthaburi Pathumthani SamutP SamutS NakhonP

Pe

rso

n

Population Trends during 2010-2035

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Population Density (person/km2)

Bangkok Nonthaburi Pathum Thani SamutP SamutS NakhonP

5,509 2,390 949 2,008 1,088 480

19

Mortality Incidence Data

▪ Data source: Categorized following ICD WHO Code (Ministry of Public Health)▪ Key features: Gender and age distribution

0

10

20

30

40

50

Ischemic heart disease Stroke Chronic obstructivepulmonary disease

Lung caner

(death

/ 1

00,0

00 p

ers

on

)

Mortality Rate by Province

Bangkok Nonthaburi Pathum Thani Samut Prakan Samut Sakhon Nakhon Pathom

Health Burden in Year 2035 and 2050 in BMR

21

▪ Health burden due to air pollution in year 2035 and 2050 would be approximately be 1,700 and 1,900 premature mortality in total, respectively

703 714

84

204

748

847

93

226

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

Ischemic heart disease Stroke Chronic obstructivepulmonary disease

Lung caner

Mo

rtali

ty (

pe

rso

n)

Long-term Health Burden in year 2035 and 2050

Health Burden CLE_2035 Health Burden CLE_2050

Health Impact of PM2.5 Reduction in Transport Sector in 2035 in BMR

22

▪ There is health benefit (approx. to 120 avoided mortality in year 2035) if strengthen standard is implemented as planned, accounted for 7% of health burden.

▪ Benefit is still limited because it is on early phase of Euro 5/6 implementation.

27

76

5

13

0

20

40

60

80

100

Ischemic heart disease Stroke Chronic obstructivepulmonary disease

Lung caner

Avo

ided

Mo

rtal

ity

(pe

rso

n)

Health Impact of PM2.5 Reduction in Transport Sector in 2050 in BMR

23

▪ There is health benefit (approx. to 300 avoided mortality in year 2050) if strengthen standard is implemented as planned, accounted for 14% of health burden.

▪ Health benefit in year 2050 is more than twice of that in year 2035.

60

178

11

30

0

40

80

120

160

200

Ischemic heart disease Stroke Chronic obstructivepulmonary disease

Lung caner

Avo

ided

Mo

rtal

ity

(pe

rso

n)

Value of Statistical Life

Cost of illness (COI)

▪ These costs can be direct, such as hospital charges, or

▪ Indirect (lost wages for parents who stay home to care for a sick child).

Willingness to Pay (WTP)WTP reflect the values implicit in individual decision-making, including valuation of pain and suffering, and are considered more complete estimates of social value

Value of Statistical Life (VSL)Derived from WTP, reflect value that individual is willing to pay to reduce their risk of dying

Example of VSL study for Bangkok, ThailandVSL (year 2003) =1.3 Million USD

(year 2015) = 1.7 Million USD

Value of Statistical Life

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,0002

00

0

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

(cu

rren

t in

tern

atio

nal

$)

Gross National Income per capita (GNI-PPP)

CHN THA USA

2.18

8.75

2.361.73

0

2

4

6

8

10

China (Cui et al.,2017)

United Stated (Cuiet al., 2017)

Thailand (derviedfrom US Study)

Thailand (derviedfrom local WTP)

Mill

ion

USD

Value of Statistical Life (VSL) Year 2015

➢ VSL for Thailand 1.7 – 2.4 Million USD

➢ Valuation of Health Benefit ▪ 0.2 - 0.3 Billion USD

of avoided mortality in year 2035

▪ 0.4 - 0.6 Billion USD of avoided mortality in year 2050

….for just BMR region

➢Implementation of more stringent environmental policy(i.e., Euro 5/6) in transport sector in BMR indicated airbenefit associated to the PM2.5 reduction,

Conclusions

26

➢ There is health benefit up to 120 and 300 avoided mortality in year 2035 and 2050, respectively,

➢ Valuation of Health Benefit

▪ 0.2-0.3 Billion USD of avoided mortality in year 2035

▪ 0.4 - 0.6 Billion USD of avoided mortality in year 2050

➢ Future Work

▪ Extend the domain of study (Thailand and other countries)

▪ Multi-pollutant and multi-sector analysis

▪ BenMAP developer,

▪ Organizations mentioned in the presentation for data

support and discussion,

▪ ABBA-EIP (JGSEE-CEE) for financial support through

TCAP project.

Acknowledgement

Thank you for your attention!

More further information, please contact:

Dr. Thao Pham (ptbthao@gmail.com )