Assessment of Impacts of and Adaptation to Climate Change in Multiple Regions and Sectors (AIACC)Assessment of Impacts of and Adaptation to Climate Change in Multiple Regions and Sectors (AIACC)

P.Batima, PI, Institute of Meteorology and HydrologyD.Dagvadorj General consultant, National Agency for Meteorology and

Hydrology and Environment MonitoringR.Oyun, JEMR Co.LtdT.Chuluun, Mongolian Academy of Science

Mongolia is a landlocked country in Northeast Asia located between the latitudes of Mongolia is a landlocked country in Northeast Asia located between the latitudes of 4141oo35’N and 5235’N and 52oo09’N and the longitudes of 8709’N and the longitudes of 87oo44’E and 11944’E and 119oo56’E. Mongolia’s 56’E. Mongolia’s territory reaches relatively high altitudes: while the average altitude is 1,580 territory reaches relatively high altitudes: while the average altitude is 1,580 meters above sea level, 81.2% of the territory is higher than 1,000 meters, and meters above sea level, 81.2% of the territory is higher than 1,000 meters, and half of the territory is higher than 1,500 meters.half of the territory is higher than 1,500 meters.In Mongolia, all natural In Mongolia, all natural zones such as high zones such as high mountains, valleys mountains, valleys between the mountain between the mountain ranges, wide steppe, ranges, wide steppe, desert and semi-desert desert and semi-desert zones are combined. zones are combined. Ecologically, Mongolia Ecologically, Mongolia occupies a critical occupies a critical transition zone in Central transition zone in Central Asia: here the great Asia: here the great Siberian taiga forest, the Siberian taiga forest, the Central Asian steppe, the Central Asian steppe, the high Altai mountains and high Altai mountains and the Gobi desert the Gobi desert converge.converge.

Climate Change Studies in MongoliaClimate Change Studies in Mongolia

There have been conducted several climate change studies in Mongolia. The first climate change study carried out under the US Country Studies Program (USCSP) in which prepared the first GHG inventory for 1990 and conducted preliminary assessment of climate change impacts.

In 1999 Mongolia developed its National Action Programme on Climate Change (NAPCC) with assistance from the Government of the Netherlands. The programme comprises an overview of impact assessment, possible adaptation measures, GHGs emission inventory and its projections, GHGs mitigation measures, and response measures’ implementation strategies.

Mongolia submitted the Initial National Communication to the UNFCCC in 2001

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• World air temperature 0.3-0.60C for last 100 years

• Annual mean temperature 1.56oC

•Winter temperature 3.61oC•Spring 1.5oC•Summer -0.3oC

Some results from past studies

Potential Impacts of Climate Change andV&A Assessment for Rangeland and

Livestock in Mongolia

Past, present and futureclimate change

assessment

Impact and V&Aassessment of Rangeland

ecosystem

Impact and V&Aassessment of Livestockand Food productivity

productionUse of global CC scenarios

Pasture productivity

Water supply

Vegetation species

Pasture carrying capacity

CC Trend analysis

Selection of appropriateCC scenarios

Development of regionalCC scenarios

Soil-plant

Animal weight changes

Herd structure

Breading management

Meat and milk production

Socio-economic analysisNatural resources analysis Fodder and hey resources

Food structure and supply

The overall objectives of this project is Potential Impacts of Climate Change and V&A Assessment for Rangeland and Livestock in Mongolia. This overall objective will meet by fulfilling three main inter-related sub-objectives such as: Past and future climate change assessment; Impact and V&A assessment of grassland ecosystem; Impact and V&A assessment of livestock productivity.

The highest priority will be giving to the study of interactions

between climate, grassland and

pastoral systems, and integration of social

factors in this analysis. Also the

scientific understanding of past

climate change impact on grassland

ecosystems and livestock sector, and

assessment of their vulnerability and

adaptation will have high preference

• NATIONAL AND INTERNATIONAL CONSULTANTS• Three national and two international consultants

• PROJECT MANAGEMENT TEAM • Principle investigator• Three group leader

• TECHNICAL EXPERT TEAM• Team on climate change study (4-5 experts)• Team on rangeland study (10-12 experts)• Team on livestock study (10-12 experts)• Team on database and networking (2-3 experts)

The ministry most closely involved in climate change and environmental problem is the Ministry of Nature and Environment (MNE).

The Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology is the administrating institution for the project implementation. The institute conducts climate change studies since 1993.

Other important organizations that will involve in the project activities are the JEMR Co.LTD, Mongolian Academy of Sciences, International Institute for Study of Nomadic Civilization, Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Colorado State University, Information and Computer Center, Institute of Geography, SATU Co.LTD, Mongolian National University, University of Agriculture and others. Private sector and NGOs are also involved in climate change activities.

Field trip + + Participatory involvement survey

+ Training

The analytical approach will be based on review and evaluation of past studies and learning from the evaluation.

The ecosystem model “CENTURY”, The Dynamic statistical model of the ewe weight and Basin Conceptual model

Remote sensing and GIS technology will be used for data gathering, thematic processing of attributes, maps and images…

The evaluation the impact of climate change and Vulnerability and Adaptation assessment on agriculture focuses on a framework which can provide step by step

evaluation of the direct and indirect effects.

• Holdridge Life zone classification model

• High mountain: 0.1-14%• Steppe: 0.1-3• Desert steppe: 7%• Gobi desert would increase 13%

Some results from past studies

The Holdridge life zone classification model will used for evaluating the potential impacts of climate change on natural zones. The Holdridge model relates the current spatial distribution of vegetation to features of the climate system. This model is suitable for examining (1) broad scale patterns of vegetation as they relate to climate and (2) the influence of climate changes on the suitability of a region to support different vegetation types. The model provides a regional mapping system for interpreting spatial changes in climate patterns throughout the country or region.

• Surface water resources would increase in the first quarto

• Then will decrease rapidly

• No changes in seasonal distribution

-40

-30-20

-100

1020

3040

5060

70

Current 2040 2070

AOB IDB POB

Some results from past studies

Basin conceptual Model (BCM) will be used to estimate water resources. The BCM is a monthly balance model which uses multiannual monthly mean values of precipitation, temperature, potential evapotranspiration, and runoff .

P a s t u r e c a p a c i t y w i l l b e 1 5 % l o w e r t h a n c u r r e n t c o n d i t i o n

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F o r e s t s t e p p e a n dh i g h m o u n t a i n s

- 6 - 1 1 3 - 2 1 0 - 1 2 - 0 . 1 0 . 4

S t e p p e - 6 - 1 5 0 - 6 1 0 - 1 8 - 0 . 1 0

A l t a i m o u n t a i n s - 4 - 4 0 1 5 0 3 4 - 0 . 1 0 . 3

D e s e r t s t e p p e a n dd e s e r t

- 2 2 - 2 6 - 1 2 - 1 6 6 - 1 3 0 0 . 1

C l i m a t e c h a n g e w i l l c a u s e s i g n i f i c a n t n e g a t i v e i m p a c t o n p a s t u r e p r o d u c t i v i t y . T h e c a r b o n a n d n i t r o g e n i n s o i l o r g a n i c m a t t e r w i l l b e d e c r e a s e d b y 1 0 a n d 3 % a n d p e a k s t a n d i n g b i o m a s s w i l l b e r e d u c e d b y 2 3 . 5 % . T h e m o s t v u l n e r a b l e r e g i o n s i n t h e c o u n t r y a r e t h e d e s e r t s t e p p e a n d d e s e r t . T h e n e g a t i v e b a l a n c e o f m o i s t u r e c a p a c i t y w i l l d e f i n i t e l y l i m i t b o t h t h e g r o w i n g s e a s o n a n d t h e p a s t u r e p r o d u c t i v i t y

S o m e r e s u l t s f r o m p a s t s t u d i e s

I n v e s t i g a t i o n o f e f f e c t s o f d i f f e r e n t g r a z i n g p r a c t i c e s o n r a n g e l a n d e c o s y s t e m p r o d u c t i v i t y w i l l b e d o n e u s i n g C E N T U R Y m o d e l . T h e m o d e l s i m u l a t e s d y n a m i c s o f g r a s s l a n d e c o s y s t e m s , a g r i c u l t u r a l c r o p s y s t e m s , f o r e s t s y s t e m s a n d s a v a n n a s y s t e m s . T h e g r a s s l a n d / c r o p a n d f o r e s t s y s t e m s h a v e d i f f e r e n t p l a n t p r o d u c t i o n s u b - m o d e l s . T h e m o d e l i s a b l e t o s i m u l a t e g r a z i n g a n d f i r e i m p a c t s o n t h e r a n g e l a n d e c o s y s t e m p r o d u c t i v i t y . R e c e n t l y , t h e a n i m a l p r o d u c t i o n s u b - m o d e l w a s l i n k e d t o t h e C E N T U R Y , s o i t c a n m o d e l a l i v e s t o c k p r o d u c t i o n t o o .

• Grazing time would decrease by 0.7-2.0 hours• Daily weight would decrease by 4-20 gr

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nges

in s

heep

au

tum

n w

eigh

t,kg

Highmountain

Foreststeppe

Steppe Govi Highmountain

Foreststeppe

Steppe Govi

2040 I 2070

CCCM

CSIROMK

ECHAM

GFDL

HADLEY

The result of impact assessment indicates that temperature increases have a negative impact on ewe weight gain in all geographical regions. Under unchanged management, ewe live-weight gain will be lower. The averaged ewe weight at the end of autumn will be 2.2 kg lower in the high mountains, 1.4 kg in the forest steppe, 0.8 kg in the Gobi region and, 0.2 kg in the steppe

Some results from past studies

The Dynamic statistical model of the ewe weight calculation for winter and spring model will be used evaluate the direct impact of climate change on ewe weight change and meat productivity.

Climate changescenarios

Socio-economicscenarios

Natural zones

Water resources

Snow cover

Permafrost

Pests and disease

Soil erosion

Desertification

Forest and steppe fires

Livestockproduction

Rangelandproduction

Integ-rated

Assess-ment

Vulnerability

Adaptationstrategy

Implementationmeasures

Assess past and present climate change

Identify more vulnerable areas and sectors

Assess potential impacts

Identify adaptation options

Examine constrains

Formulate alternative strategies

Develop implementation strategies

Certain part of the project activities will be the Capacity building which is based on advanced methodology of climate change assessment and information and communication technology for integrated processing and analyzing the climatic, environmental and socio-economic information. The measures we plan to conduct are

Local training of scientific and technical personnel as well as policy makers in the field of climate change by the trained national experts

Establish networked database and integrated information processing, analysis and dissemination system

Take a measure to participate the national experts in the international training on climate change issues

Enhance of capacity of technical personnel to convey clear and concise information on climate change issues to policy-makers through international and local training

Preparation of information materials for staff in government agencies, NGOs, industries, financial agencies, and academic institutions related to the climate change problems and concerns

Broad involvement of undergraduate and postgraduate students in the meteorological and environmental faculty of State and Private Universities in the field as well al desk study.

Information to reduce vulnerability will be produced and discussed with the herders and local administration and policymaking to build adaptive capacity options in the context of development, sustainability and equity will be evaluated in collaboration of all stakeholders.

The pastoral systems became more dependent on a more technologically-based system of hay production and trucking of animals. However, these systems provided a buffer against extreme climate events. Today the change in economic and political policy has undermined these coping mechanisms and have resulted in a more vulnerable situation.

Identification and clear definition of climate change impacts on pasture vegetation, herd structure and meat and milk production, and adaptation options that will add new set of measures of climate change that enable agriculture and food sector to adapt to the potential climate change will be disseminated as a recommendation to decision makers.

Based on the results of the Impact and V&A assessment on key socio-economic and environmental sectors, the following documents, consistent with Mongolia National Action Program on Climate Change, will be prepared and submitted to the Government

Report of Climate Change Impact and V&A Assessment for socio-economic development. The report will include vulnerability of rangeland ecosystems and pastoral systems to climate change (warming, variability and extremes) and land use intensity identified through integrated impact, adaptation and vulnerability assessments, using long-term climate and plant records, RS sensing data (AVHRR and TM), ecosystem model CENTURY and field survey.

Recommendations of the economically effective and culturally acceptable adaptation measures in pasture management and livestock development to support national sustainable development strategies will be suggested. Implementation strategies of the most promising adaptation measures in vulnerable region will be recommended.

Climate mitigation options in the context of development, sustainability and equity will be evaluated, and potential adaptation strategies for policymaking will be developed for each land use type regions, with particular emphasis on the most vulnerable coupled environment-human systems.

Several peer-reviewed papers and “Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment of Grassland Ecosystem and Pastoral System to Climate Change in Mongolia” book will be written as a result of this project.

Additional slides: Study area

Sectors to be studied:• Natural resources

• water resources, • snow cover, • permafrost

• Pasture capacity• Vegetation species• Carrying capacity

• Animal husbandry• Weight• productivity

Methodologies

Vulnerability assessment– Coping range

– Vulnerability map

– Vulnerability index

– Sensitivity analysis

• Integrated assessment– Cross impact analysis

– Develop “Integrated assessment methodology”

Extreme events

Extreme events that will take in impact and vulnerability assessment

»‘Dzud’- severe winter

»Drougth

»Wind storm

(Frequency, spatial distribution, duration, consequences)

Adaptation assessment

• Adaptive capacity of pasture

• Adaptation options– Cost benefit analysis– Multi-criteria analysis– Analysis of effectiveness