Astutie WidyarissantieClimate Change Adaptation Unit

Ministry of Environment and Forestry

“INVENTORY SYSTEM OF CLIMATE VULNERABILITY INDEX”

INTRODUCTION• Global warming and climate change is predicted to alter the

pattern of future climate risks• The national development that is not consider to the climate

change will be affected significantly, due to their vulnerability to an impacts and it also will bring consequences on development goals achievement

• The World Bank stated that the losses due to climate change and disaster in Indonesia estimated at 7% of GDP

• Indonesia had launched National Action Plan for Adaptation (RAN API) on February 2014

• To monitor the effectiveness of climate resilient development which planned in the NAP, it is necessary to provide tools and methods for assessing the vulnerability of a system or sector

NAPA Targets Framework

3

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT AND ADAPTIVE TO CLIMATE CHANGE

ECONOMY RESILIENCE

LIVELIHOOD RESILIENCE

ECOSYTEM RESILIENCE

STRENGTHENING SUPPORT SYSTEM

SPECIAL AREAS RESILIENCE

Knowledge Management, Planning and Financing, Capacity Building, Monitoring and Evaluation

Main Objective

Targets

Adaptation Action Plan (RAN-API)

4

Economy Resilience

Social and Livelihood Resilience

Ecosytem Resilience

Special Area Resilience

Supporting System

Food Security

Energy Independency

Health

Settlement

Infrastructure

Urban Area

Coastal and Small Islands Area

5 clusters

SECTOR SUB-SECTOR CLUSTER

7 clusters

4 clusters

4 clusters

4 clusters

4 clusters

7 clusters

5 clusters

5 clusters

ACTION PLAN

Cluster 1: Adjustment of Food Production Systems1. Minimize yield loss by reducing the area

exposed / puso by floods2. …….

Cluster 1: Identification and control factors1. Mapping populations and areas vulnerable

to climate change 2. …….

Cluster 1: Repair / Improvement of Spatial Planning and Land Classification of Land1. Identification and mapping vulnerability

forests, marine ecosystems, watersheds, and biodiversity of the climate change

2. …….

Cluster 1: Integrating spatial planning with adaptation efforts1. Preparation of maps of vulnerability to

climate change for urban areas 2. …….

Cluster 1: Capacity building for stakeholders in the climate change adaptation 1. Education, counseling, and training on

the climate change adaptation2. …….

SCHEME OF INTERACTION BETWEEN EXPOSURE, SENSITIVITY AND ADAPTIVE CAPACITY TO THE THREAT

RISK

Climate Variability

Climate Change

Threat

Government

Mitigation & Adaptatiion

Social-Economy

CLIMATE DEVELOPMENT

Emission and Land-use Change

Impact to Human and Ecosystem

Sources: IPCC, 2014

Adaptive Capacity

Exposure

INVENTORY SYSTEM OF CLIMATE VULNERABILITY INDEX

(SIDIK-Sistem Inventarisasi Data Indeks Kerentanan

Perubahan Iklim)1. Instrument used for monitoring level of vulnerability at local and

national level check the effectiveness of development policy.

2. Outputs SIDIK:• Index showing the coping range of villages to climate change• Showing the level of vulnerability of village (as combination of

exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity) into quadrant system;• Based on biophysics, socio-economics indicators • Could compare the level of Vulnerability between villages at

national level.

Applying the Concept: Assessing Vulnerability Using Quadrant Method – Basis for MONEV System

ACI Low ACI High

ESI High

ESI Low

Quadrant1

Quadrant2

Quadrant2

Quadrant4

Quadrant4

Quadrant 5

Quadrant 5

To assess relative position of village based on vulnerability index, Indonesia applies quadrant method to locate position of a village in the quadrant based on the Exposure and Sensitivity Index (ESI) and

Adaptive Capacity Index (ACI). If ESI and ACI value in Quadrant 5, we can define the village very vulnerable. With CCA actions, it is

expected the position of village will move to better position (e.g. from 5 to 4, or to 3, or to 2 or to 1

Quadrant3

Quadrant3

Boer et al., 2010

Applying the Concept: Assessing Vulnerability Level of Villages in Jakarta

-0.5 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5-0.5

-0.4

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5200520082011

SEI

ACI

Low ACI & High

SEI

High ACI & Low

SEI

Low ACI & Low

SEI

High ACI & High

SEI

Monitor the change in Vulnerability of Village over time: Jakarta Case

[Baseline 2005]

• WHERE, WHAT and WHEN the adaptation should be prioritized and synergized?

• WHAT policy supports needed?• WHAT Institutional Arrangement?

ILLUSTRATION OF SIDIK

Choose 1 province (example: Aceh) then will display: Location

(Province) and SEI & ACI

Province positioning in the quadrant

Colour Indicators according to the quadrant

Spidergraph for AC Spidergraph for SEI

Choose one area province (for example aceh), the will display:

Name of province, SEI and ACI values

Position of the province in the quadrant

Each color has indicates position of area in the quadrant

Identification of Indicators for defining Level of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity of Villages: Basis for Developing MONEV of CCA

AIndicator for adaptive capacity (ACI)

Weight

BIndicator for sensitivity and level exposure (SEI)

Weight

A1 Electricity facility 0.10 B1No. HH live near river side

0.05

A2 Education facility 0.45 B2No Building near the river side

0.05

A21 TK (Kindergarten) 0.07 B3 Source of drinking water 0.10

A22 SD (Elementary School) 0.13 B31 - Pipe (PDAM) 0.25

A23 SMP (Junior High School) 0.20 B32 - Wells 0.50

A24SMU (Senior High School)

0.27 B33 - Spring 0.50

A25 Universities 0.30 B34 - Lake/river 0.75

A3 Main source of income 0.10 B35 - Rainfall 1.00

A4 Health facility 0.35 B4 Population density 0.15

A41 Puskesmas 0.20 B5 Poverty Level 0.10

A42 Polyclinic 0.30 B6 Waste fraction 0.25

A43 Posyandu 0.20 B7 No HH in slump ares 0.15

A44 Midwife 0.10 B8No building in slump area

0.05

A45 Medical doctor 0.20 B9 Land Subsidence 0.10

Input-Processing-Output of SIDIKINPUT PROCESSING OUTPUT

Statistic Data of the Village

User: Formula modification1. Type: National or Local Level2. Adding the indicators3. Updating index weight

measurement

SIDIK:Inventory System for Vulnerability

Index

Extreme rainfall data

User: Analysis Scoping1. Analysis Scope: National,

Provincial, Districts or City2. Analysis Level: at most

one level is under the scope

Information:SEI: Sensitivity & Exposure IndexACI: Adaptive Capacity IndexCRI Index: Coping Range IndexClimate Risk: Flood & Drought

National:MOEF

Local:Provincial/

District/City

Other Stakeholder

INTEGRATION OF RELEVANT DATA BETWEEN SECTORS/INSTITUTIONS

1: Exposure Indicators, 2:Socio-economic & culture, 3: Threat and Climate Disaster, and 4: verification of vulnerability indicators by local government

sources: Boer, 2014

MOEF: SIDIK &

Climate Risk

Private

Local Task Force

NGO

Sumber: Boer, 2014

Utilization of Vulnerability Assessment To Synergizing CCA and DRR

CONCLUSION• Online SIDIK CAN be utilized by local government and sectors

FOR defining vulnerability and to evaluate effectiveness of implementation of national or local development to reduce vulnerability

• Online SIDIK can be used to assist of prioritization process related to area and program to address threats of Climate Change

• Online SIDIK needs to further improvement and bring an additional indicators that can be represent exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity

• Institutional cooperation to provide spatial/land use, economy social, climate risk needs to further development

• Training and Assistance for local staff to optimize SIDIK System effectively