Atmospheric COAtmospheric CO2 2 & Global & Global

WarmingWarming

Atmospheric Temperature and Atmospheric Temperature and COCO22 Levels

Predicted vs Observed Predicted vs Observed Temperatures (Solar Radiation)Temperatures (Solar Radiation)

Atmosphere CompositionAtmosphere Composition

The Population ExplosionThe Population Explosion

The increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide is primarily due to world energy consumption and secondarily due to deforestation.

World Energy 1850-2000

050

100150200250300350400450500

1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000

Year

EJ/ye

ar

Gas

Oil

Coal

Nuclear

Hydro +

Biomass

The Carbon CycleThe Carbon Cycle

Fixing Carbon (Carbon Fixing Carbon (Carbon Sequestration)Sequestration)

Photosynthesis 6C02 + 6H2O C6H12O6 + 6O2

  Atmospheric carbon is fixed in the

biosphere. Stable exchanges of @ 110 billion tons of

carbon annually

Carbon ImbalanceCarbon Imbalance Atmospheric carbon levels are at the

highest level in 20 million years. Annually between 9 and 10 billion tons

MORE carbon is introduced into the atmosphere than is fixed.

Why?

Types of CarbonTypes of Carbon Biospheric carbon and Lithospheric

carbon (fossil fuels) General balance of biospheric carbon

exchange, EXCEPT for additional atmospheric carbon from deforestation

Between 1 and 2 billion tons per year. Lithosperic carbon adds @ 8 billion

tones of carbon to the atmosphere 1 gallon of gas releases @ 5 lbs carbon

(18-19 lbs CO2).

2010 Carbon Emissions by 2010 Carbon Emissions by CountryCountry

Carbon Emissions Per CapitaCarbon Emissions Per Capita

World Mapper Carbon Emissions Per Capita

Hundreds of thousands of years ago

400,000 Years of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide DataA

tmo

sph

eric

CO

2 (p

pm

)

OK, Make it a Million YearsOK, Make it a Million Years

Causes of Global Change(population, proximate/ultimate effects)

• Population growth or resource over consumption? Impact = Population Number * Per Capita Resource Use US CO2 emissions = ca. 4 tons C/person/year Chinese CO2 emissions = ca. 0.2 tonsC/person/year• US Impact = 4 ton C /person x ca. 270,000,000 =ca. 1.1 billion tons

C/year• Chinese Impact = . 2 ton C /person x 1.4 billion people =ca. 0.3

billion tons C/year

What is the effect on global temperature of doubling the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide?

The direct effect of heat absorption by the CO2: + 1 oC

The indirect (feedback) effects: + 0.5 to 3.5 oC

• melting ice and snow increases absorption of sunlight (ice-albedo effect)

• warmer air holds more water vapor, another greenhouse gas

• warmer air results in different cloud characteristics

TOTAL: + 1.5 to 4.5 oC

IMPACTS OF GLOBAL WARMING

• Threats to Food Production (Diminished Water Supplies)

• Human Health Impacts (Heat Waves, Infectious Disease)

• Wildfire

• Sealevel Rise

• Ecological Effects:

•Extinction Episode Comparable to K-T Boundary

•Spread of Invasive Species

•Coral Bleaching

•Biome Shift Northwards

•Climate Hot Map

Future energy policy will determine this

This warming has already occurred

1000 2100

Year

Largest per capita CO2 emitters

Highest social and / or agro-economic vulnerability

Largest per capita CO2 emitters, and highest social and / or agro-economic vulnerability

Areas with highest ecological vulnerability

Highest vulnerability towards climate change vs. largest CO2 emissions (from fossil fuel combustion and cement production, and including land use change, kg C per person and year from 1950 - 2003)

Highest vulnerability vs. largest per capita CO2 emissions

Highest social and / or agro-economic vulnerability

Largest per capita CO2 emitters, and highest social and / or agro-economic vulnerability

Areas with highest ecological vulnerability

Highest vulnerability towards climate change vs. largest CO2 emissions (from fossil fuel combustion and cement production, and including land use change, kg C per person and year from 1950 - 2003)

Largest per capita CO2 emitters

Highest social and / or agro-economic vulnerability

Largest per capita CO2 emitters, and highest social and / or agro-economic vulnerability

Areas with highest ecological vulnerability

Highest vulnerability towards climate change vs. largest CO2 emissions (from fossil fuel combustion and cement production, and including land use change, kg C per person and year from 1950 - 2003)

Largest per capita CO2 emitters

Largest per capita CO2 emitters, and highest social and / or agro-economic vulnerability

Areas with highest ecological vulnerability

Highest vulnerability towards climate change vs. largest CO2 emissions (from fossil fuel combustion and cement production, and including land use change, kg C per person and year from 1950 - 2003)

Largest per capita CO2 emitters

Highest social and / or agro-economic vulnerability

Largest per capita CO2 emitters, and highest social and / or agro-economic vulnerability

Areas with highest ecological vulnerability

Highest vulnerability towards climate change vs. largest CO2 emissions (from fossil fuel combustion and cement production, and including land use change, kg C per person and year from 1950 - 2003)

Largest per capita CO2 emitters

Highest social and / or agro-economic vulnerability

Areas with highest ecological vulnerability

Highest vulnerability towards climate change vs. largest CO2 emissions (from fossil fuel combustion and cement production, and including land use change, kg C per person and year from 1950 - 2003)

Largest per capita CO2 emitters

Highest social and / or agro-economic vulnerability

Largest per capita CO2 emitters, and highest social and / or agro-economic vulnerability

Highest vulnerability towards climate change vs. largest CO2 emissions (from fossil fuel combustion and cement production, and including land use change, kg C per person and year from 1950 - 2003)

Largest per capita CO2 emitters

Highest social and / or agro-economic vulnerability

Largest per capita CO2 emitters, and highest social and / or agro-economic vulnerability

Areas with highest ecological vulnerability

Dr. James Hansen, NASA GISS

How Serious Is This?

Warming of more than 10C above today’s level will make the Earth warmer than it has been in a million years.

Business-as-usual, with fossil fuel CO2 emissions continuing to increase will mean an additional warming of 20C to 30C this century and will make the Earth a different planet.

At 20C to 30C the new sea level would be 25 meters (80 feet) higher than today.

New York City

Long Beach

Atlantic City

Wildwood

Montauk

New Haven

Weiss and Overpeck, University of Arizona

Sea Level +1M

New York City

Long Beach

Atlantic City

Wildwood

Montauk

New Haven

Weiss and Overpeck, University of Arizona

Sea Level +6M

New York City

Long Beach

Atlantic City

Wildwood

Montauk

New Haven

Weiss and Overpeck, University of Arizona

Virginia Beach

Norfolk

Ocean City

Hampton

Dover

Weiss and Overpeck, University of Arizona

Virginia Beach

Norfolk

Ocean City

Hampton

Dover

Sea Level +1MWeiss and Overpeck, University of Arizona

Virginia Beach

Norfolk

Ocean City

Hampton

Dover

Sea Level +6MWeiss and Overpeck, University of Arizona

Wilmington

Myrtle Beach

Charleston Mt.

Pleasant

Hilton Head

Savannah Weiss and Overpeck, University of Arizona

Wilmington

Myrtle Beach

Charleston Mt.

Pleasant

Hilton Head

Savannah

Sea Level +1M

Weiss and Overpeck, University of Arizona

Wilmington

Myrtle Beach

Charleston Mt.

Pleasant

Hilton Head

Savannah

Sea Level +6M

Weiss and Overpeck, University of Arizona

Ft. Lauderdale

Daytona Beach

Jacksonville

St. Petersburg

Fort Meyers

Panama City

Miami

Weiss and Overpeck, University of Arizona

Sea Level + 1MMiami

Ft. Lauderdale

Daytona Beach

Jacksonville

St. Petersburg

Fort Meyers

Panama City

Weiss and Overpeck, University of Arizona

Sea Level + 6MMiami

Ft. Lauderdale

Daytona Beach

Jacksonville

St. Petersburg

Fort Meyers

Panama City

Weiss and Overpeck, University of Arizona

New Orleans

Lake CharlesBeaumont

Baton Rouge

Weiss and Overpeck, University of Arizona

Sea Level +1M

New Orleans

Lake CharlesBeaumont

Baton Rouge

Weiss and Overpeck, University of Arizona

Sea Level +6M

New Orleans

Lake CharlesBeaumont

Baton Rouge

Weiss and Overpeck, University of Arizona