Addressing Climate Change: SMUD’s Goals & Challenges

10th Generation SummitFebruary 25-26, 2013

Intercontinental HotelDallas, TX

Powering forward. Together.

OutlineOutline

• SMUD Overview and history of• SMUD Overview and history of Investment

• Climate Change Impacts & Policy• Renewables SolutionRenewables Solution• Energy Efficiency Solution• Challenges & Opportunities

SMUD OverviewS U O e e• Publicly owned utility formed in

19461946• Governed by independent

locally elected governing Boardlocally elected governing Board of 7 members

• Serves electricity to 1.3 million ypeople in Sacramento region

• 2,100 Employees• Peak Demand of 3,300 MW• Annual Sales ~11,000,000 MWh

History of Investment in Sustainable Energy • 1960’s constructed Upper American River Hydro Projectpp y j• 1970’s began Energy Efficiency Programs• 1984 1st Utility Scale Solar PV Project• 1989 Closed Rancho Seco Nuclear Power Plant• 1990’s 1st CO inventory Investment in 300 MW of cogeneration initial• 1990 s 1st CO2 inventory, Investment in 300 MW of cogeneration, initial

investment in wind energy, launch of rooftop solar program, Greenergy program

• 2001 Board-adopted 20% RPS, helped launch California Climate Action RegistryAction Registry

• 2004 1st entity to certify emissions with CCAR, 15 MW Solano wind farm completed

• 2006 completed 500 MW Cosumnes, one of most efficient natural gas power plants in the countrypower plants in the country

• 2007-8 adopted 15% EE goal, 33% RPS, 90% Carbon reduction goal• 2010 only major utility to achieve 20% RPS, 100 MW solar FiT• 2012 finished buildout of windfarm to 225 MW, RPS contracting to

hi 33% RPS fi i h d AMI d l tachieve 33% RPS, finished AMI deployment

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Motivations/Impacts of Climate Change

Major impacts to PlanetMajor impacts to Planet, State, Sacramento

Limited Conflicting IInvestments

Leadership Empowered with Options to Address pIssue

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ales (M

Wh)

Electricity Sa

20% below 1990 Emissions Today, 30% below by 2020

Retail E

below by 2020

SMUD Board Policy on Sustainable EnergySustainable Energy

• Sustainable Power Supply reduces SMUD’s long-term greenhouse gas emissions from generation ofterm greenhouse gas emissions from generation of Electricity to 10% of its 1990 carbon dioxide emission levels by 2050 (<350,000 metric tonnes/year), while assuring reliability of the system; minimizing environmental impacts on land, habitat, water quality,and air quality; and maintaining a competitive position relative to other California electricity

id T id SMUD i it l ti dproviders. To guide SMUD in its resource evaluation and investment, the Board sets the following interim goals:

Year Net Greenhouse Gas Emissions (metric tonnes)2012 2,608,0002020 2,318,000

7

Board Greenhouse Gas Emissions Targets for SMUD Retail Load through 2050 ‐ 90% below 1990 levels

3,500,000

4,000,000

es CO2

2050 ‐ 90% below 1990 levels

Cogen Emissions

Cosumnes Emissions

2 572 209

3,000,000

 ‐Metric Tonn

e

Emissions History and Projections

30% below 1990 levels in 2020

2,572,209 

2,319,928 

2,028,748 2,000,000

2,500,000

Gas Emission

s

‐90% below

1,698,889 

1,361,667 

1,024,444 1,000,000

1,500,000

Green

house G 90% below 

1990 levels

687,222 

350,000 

500,000

SMUD To

tal G

0

1990

1992

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2010

2012

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2050

Meeting our Goals – RPS, EE

To meet our carbon objectives SMUD’s• To meet our carbon objectives, SMUD’s Board has adopted a 33% by 2020 Renewable Portfolio Standard goalRenewable Portfolio Standard goal, extending our 20% by 2010 goal, consistent with state policyconsistent with state policy

• In addition, the Board adopted more ff faggressive energy efficiency goals of

15% of retail load by 2023

33% RPS plus 4% Greenergy in 2020

20% RPS and 3% Greenergy in 2010

Solar Energy Growth at SMUD

180 Installed and Forecast Solar Capacity

80100120140160

tts

SB1, Actual & Planned

Non-SB1, Actual & Planned

Installed and Forecast Solar Capacity

0204060

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Meg

awat FIT

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Year

PV Issues For SMUDAverage 15 Minute Interval Peak Demand ZEH vs. Non ZEH July, 2005

3,000

3,500

MW

3

3.5kW

System Peak MWAverage of ZEH Net Grid Load (kW)Average of Power Produced by PV (kW)Average of Non-ZEH Net Grid Load (kW)

Avg High temp 98 degrees FAvg Min Temp 65 degees F

2.9 kW

• PV coupled with high efficiency measures can reduce home peak load by

1,500

2,000

2,500

1

1.5

2

2.5Average of Non ZEH Net Grid Load (kW)Avg Gross Load (Kw)

2.2 kW; 24%

1.3 kW; 55%

1.6 kW

1.2 kW; 25%

55%• Significant shift still

between solar peak and t k

500

1,000

-0.5

0

0.5

-0.4 kW; 125%

system peak• Intermittent production

resulting from partly cloudy conditions0

12AM

1AM

2AM

3AM

4AM

5AM

6AM

7AM

8AM

9AM

10AM

11AM

12PM

1PM

2PM

3PM

4PM

5PM

6PM

7PM

8PM

9PM

10PM

11PM

Time

-1 conditions

C l ti 59 2%

Wind Intermittency

50

60

70

80

90

1400

1500

1600

1700

1800

tion

(MW

h/D

ay)

d (M

W)

Correlation = 59.2%

• SMUD’s peak load driven by hot summer temperatures

0

10

20

30

40

50

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

Win

d P

rodu

ct

SM

UD

Loa

d p• Wind resource weakest

on hottest daysComparing daily and1 31 61 91 121 151 181 211 241 271 301 331 361

Day of the Year

Daily Ave 2002-03 Load Daily Wind Production (MWh/Day)

9 03000

• Comparing daily and hourly system load with Solano Wind Plant production illustrates

4.5

6.0

7.5

9.0

1500

2000

2500

3000

uctio

n (M

W)

Load

(M

W)

production illustrates mismatch

• Must rely on firming

0.0

1.5

3.0

0

500

1000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Win

d P

rod

Sys

tem

Hour7/22/03 S t L d A J A 2003 Wi d P d ti

resources to address mismatch and ensure system stability

7/22/03 System Load Ave. Jun-Aug 2003 Wind Production

R&D Integration Strategies– New Knowledge (variability, feeder penetration limits, hi-penetration impacts, etc.)penetration impacts, etc.)– System Planning (i.e., added flexible reserves)

New Modeling & Simulation– New Modeling & Simulation Tools– New & Improved Forecasting Methods– New Inverter Technology (e.g., volt/var control)– Integration with Smart Grid (communications & control) and

other New Techs (PEVs, DSM, etc.)– New, Cost-Competitive Storage Options– 21st Century Electricity Distribution System thataccommodates two-way power flowaccommodates two way power flow

SMUD’s Energy Efficiency ProgramsSMUD s Energy Efficiency Programs

• Programs initiated in 1970’s, have been aggressively g , gg ydeploying EE for nearly 4 decades

• Current levels are just shy of 1.5% of customer retail l ith l f tt i i th t l l b 2020sales per year, with a goal of attaining that level by 2020

• Programs offer everything from lightbulb and appliance rebates to whole building retrofits and Zero-net-Energyrebates to whole building retrofits and Zero net Energy approaches

• Emerging Technology R&D and enhanced incentives test d d i t h l i t k tand drive new technologies to market

SMUD’s EE Program SuccessSMUD s EE Program Success

13,000

kWh per capita

11,000

12,000

9 000

10,000

CA

US

SMUD

8,000

9,000 SMUD

6,000

7,000

1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

History (and Future) Of SMUD Energy Efficiency Portfolio(1.5% Scenario – 2008 to 2020)

250

(1.5% Scenario 2008 to 2020)

157 GWh 154.3 GWh 150

200

d/$

Spen

t

100

150

aved

/MW

Red

uce

GWh

MW

$M

$43.80M 50

GW

h Sa

31.5 MW 27.5M $32.77M 

0

1977

1978

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2019

2020

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

Components Of EE PortfolioComponents Of EE Portfolio0%

4% 4% 2%

1%

0%

0%

0%

Retail Lighting

Prescriptive Lighting Incentives

i d i i h i32%

9%

8%

5%4% 4% Customized Incentives ‐ Lighting

Customized Incentives ‐ Non‐Lighting

Business and Consumer Electronics

Express Efficiency Incentives

Home Electricity Reports

9%

8%

18%

Home Electricity Reports

Appliance Efficiency

Commercial Savings By Design

Equipment Efficiency

Distributor Incentives

Shade Trees (Sacramento Shade)

Residential Solar Smart Energy Efficiency

Multi‐Family Retrofit

SMUD Projected Resource Mix Through 2050

16 000

18,000 

20,000 

pply GWH

EE/DSM ‐ Board Targets to 2020

Unknown Generation

37% 2020 Renewables

Hydro (UARP + WAPA)

Natural Gas Generation Serving SMUD Retail Demand

Allowable Gas Generation with Wholesale Sales

Total Retail Demand

12,000

14,000 

16,000 

Resou

rce Sup

Energy Gap

8,000 

10,000 

12,000 

y Dem

and and 

4,000 

6,000 

jected

 Ene

rgy

‐

2,000 

9 1 3 5 7 9 1 3 5 7 9 1 3 5 7 9 1 3 5 7 9

Total Proj

200

201

201

201

201

201

202

202

202

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204

Role of the Cap and Trade P d AB 32Program and AB 32

• SMUD supported the development of AB 32 and the ’ C d T d hi h d hstate’s Cap and Trade program, which reduce the

state’s GhG emissions to 1990 levels by 2020• 1st Auction is November 15th, 2012, program covers

electricity and industry beginning in 2013, transportation and natural gas beginning in 2015

• We are well positioned to comply with the program’s p p y p gcarbon reduction objectives given our RPS and EE goals

• We are hopeful that the program creates appropriate p p g pp pincentives for reducing statewide emissions while providing benefits to the economy through clean tech growth

Conclusions• SMUD has had a long history of investment in efficiency and

renewables to benefit our customers and reduce our impact on the environmenton the environment

• Many challenges arise as renewables (e.g., variability & integration, transmission to access new, high density resources) and efficiency (e.g., developing new, emerging ) y ( g , p g , g gefficiency technologies) grow as sources to reduce GhG emissions

• The future requires continued dedication and new solutions h th S t G id t bl i ifi t blsuch as the Smart Grid to enable significant renewable

penetrations and emerging energy efficiency solutions• Achieving this transition while maintaining our customer

satisfaction will be challenging but SMUD staff are up to thesatisfaction will be challenging, but SMUD staff are up to the challenge!

Thank You!

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