aud/cad currency pair analysis
TRANSCRIPT
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8/15/2019 AUD/CAD Currency Pair analysis
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Final Report
Currency pair AUD/CAD
Subject: Trading and Exchange
Section: “C
Sub!itted by:
"uha!!ad A#i! $%S%&"'A"(()*
Saad Ra+i,ue Ali $%S%&"'A"((-*
Sub!itted to:
. 0A" FER10E
Dated: "ay )&2 )(%3
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8/15/2019 AUD/CAD Currency Pair analysis
2/17
4raph o+%& th "A5 )(%3
On 13 may 2016 the candle become DOJI its means the trend is near to end and for a long time seller
has power in hands but at closing time the buyers increases in the market due to this price goes
upward o!erall DOJI shows neutral trend
Funda!ental Analy#i#
May 13 The Australian government raised a record-matching A$7 billion ($5.14 billion in a ne! issue
o" 1#-year debt !ith one third sold to international investors attracted by the bond%s relatively high
yield !hich im&act economy strongly.
Technical analy#i#
'ecord-matching A$7 billion ($5.14 billion in a ne! issue o" 1#-year debt this im&act de"ine as!hen ovt. issue the )ond the money goes to the overnment due to this money circulationdecreases the A*+ !ill be a&&reciated. That !hy the trend is going to end.
Source
http"##www$reuters$com#article#australia%debt%aofm%id&'(3)1*+2,I
Trading and Exchange6 )
http://www.reuters.com/article/australia-debt-aofm-idUSL3N1892CIhttp://www.reuters.com/article/australia-debt-aofm-idUSL3N1892CI
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8/15/2019 AUD/CAD Currency Pair analysis
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4raph o+ %3 th "A5 )(%3
On 16 may 2016 candle stick become in!erted hammer its mean there is buying pressure whole
day but at closing time sellers increases in the market but o!erall price is bullish$ -his candle
confirming the bullish signal$
Funda!ental Analy#i#
.ay 16 /ustralian shares rose 0$6 percent on .onday helped by solid gains in healthcare stocks$
hich affects the economy positi!ely and the !alue of /ustralian dollar appreciate which appreciate
the !alue of pair
Technical analy#i#
.ay 16 /ustralian shares rose 0$6 percent on .onday helped by solid gains in healthcare stocks
-he ' #/' 200 inde4 ended up 2+$+1 points at 5 35*$+0$
Source
http"##www$reuters$com#article#australia%stocks%close%id&'(3)1*D2
Trading and Exchange6 &
http://www.reuters.com/article/australia-stocks-close-idUSL3N18D2KXhttp://www.reuters.com/article/australia-stocks-close-idUSL3N18D2KX
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4raph o+ %* th "A5 )(%3
On 17 may 2016 the candle stick is bullish its uppers shadow is higher than lower shadow$
Funda!ental analy#i#
On 17 may 2016 the news is declared by the reser!e bank of /ustralia that inflation rate is
declined than pre!ious inflation rate which means economy is becomes stronger which result the
currency of /ustralian dollar is appreciated$ On the same date news by the statistics ,anada
manufacturer8s sales declined it8s a leading indicator of an economic health due to decreasing
sales its affects badly which leads currency depreciation
It means /ustralian dollar are appreciating due to less inflation rate and ,anadian dollar is
depreciated due to decreasing sales$ ,anadian dollars is denominator and /ustralian dollar is
nominator which results price of pair is impro!ed
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8/15/2019 AUD/CAD Currency Pair analysis
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Technical analy#i#
Inflation had declined to a little less than 9 per cent compared with about : per cent in the
December ;uarter to be about 1: per cent o!er the year$ .anufacturing sales decreased 0$+< to
=50$0 billion in .arch$
Source
http"##www$fore4factory$com#news$php>do?news id?5+12@+
http"##www$fore4factory$com#news$php>do?news id?5+11+0
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http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=591249http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=591190http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=591249http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=591190
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8/15/2019 AUD/CAD Currency Pair analysis
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4raph o+ %8 th "A5 )(%3
On 1* may 2016 the candle stick is bearish its lower shadow is higher than upper shadow
Funda!ental Analy#i#Aoreign in!estments of ,anadian securities are increasing which result the strengthen of
economy which appreciates ,anadian dollars ,anadian dollars appreciates which means pair is
depreciate because ,anadian dollar is denominator$
Technical Analy#i#
Aoreign in!estment in ,anadian securities strengthened for a third straight month to reach
=17$2 billion in .arch
Source:
http"##www$fore4factory$com#news$php>do?news id?5+1@01
Trading and Exchange6 3
http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=591401http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=591401
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8/15/2019 AUD/CAD Currency Pair analysis
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4raph o+ %9 th "A5 )(%3
On 1+ may 2016 the candle stick is bullish and real body of candle is small than last real body of
bullish candle
Funda!ental Analy#i#
&nemployment rate decreases which means inflation rate decreases which leads to decrease
money supply which results increase the !alue of money which results appreciate of /ustralian
dollar
holesale sales declined for a second consecuti!e month which impact badly on economy which
results depreciate of ,anadian dollar
Due to decrease in unemployment rate /ustralian dollar appreciated which in nominator and due
to decrease in wholesale sales ,anadian dollar depreciates which is denominator which means
pair is impro!ed
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8/15/2019 AUD/CAD Currency Pair analysis
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Technical analy#i#:
Bmployment increased @ 100 to 11 +10 *00$ &nemployment decreased 1 +00 to 726 600$
&nemployment rate decreased by less than 0$1 pts to 5$7do?news id?5+16@3
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http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=591532http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=591643http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=591532http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=591643
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8/15/2019 AUD/CAD Currency Pair analysis
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4raph o+ )( th "A5 )(%3
On 20 may 2016 the candle stick is bullish and the real body of candle is small than last real
body of bullish candle
Funda!ental Analy#i#
,onsumer price inde4 increases which means purchasing power decreases$ -hat indicates
increase in inflation which increases money supply which result ,anadian dollar depreciates
Technical analy#i#
-he ,onsumer rice Inde4 rose 1$7< in the 12 months to /pril after increasing 1$3< in .arch$
B4cluding gasoline the , I rose 2$0< year o!er year in /pril following a 1$+< increase in.arch
Source:
http"##www$fore4factory$com#news$php>do?news id?5+1*05
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http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=591805http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=591805
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8/15/2019 AUD/CAD Currency Pair analysis
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.ext ee; Foreca#ting Tool#
4raph o+ "ACD
'tandards areC
• ed line means signal line + days• Elack line means ./,D line 26%12?1@ days
-his graph shows ./,D line rises abo!e the signal line which indicates bullish signal
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8/15/2019 AUD/CAD Currency Pair analysis
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4raph o+ R1C
e selected the O, standard define as
• O!erbought Fone G10• O!ersold Fone %10• Hero line 'ignal
hen momentum crosses abo!e Fero it gi!es buy signal when momentum crosses below the
Fero line it gi!es sell signal$
O, not confirming clear signal of buy and sell
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8/15/2019 AUD/CAD Currency Pair analysis
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4raph o+ RS
e selected the 'I eriod is 1@ days standard define as
• If crosses 70< it means o!erbought Fone• If crosses 30< it means o!ersold Fone
-his 'I Kraph shows buy signal because 'I rises out of o!ersold Fone
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8/15/2019 AUD/CAD Currency Pair analysis
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4raph o+
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Calculation o+
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8/15/2019 AUD/CAD Currency Pair analysis
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Ey using Aibonacci tool we calculate the retracement le!el$ -he graph show the how much price
will be goes down for different standard of Aibonacci retracement$
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8/15/2019 AUD/CAD Currency Pair analysis
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Foreca#ting Analy#i#:
e obser!e o!erall graph and candles the first day 13 may represent the end of trend as pre!ious
it is bearish when doLi become the trend becomes end and it is bullish at 16 may the price goes
upward after high fluctuation$ -hen on 17 may price consistently goes upward with a high real
body bullish candle$ On 1* may the price goes down temporary doing retracement and on 1+ it
goes upward because trend is bullish the end day of 20 may is also make bullish candle$
-hen we apply oscillators O, 'I ./,D$ O, not gi!ing confirming signal while ./,D
and 'I gi!e bullish signal .ay 23 /ustralian share fell to their lowest in nearly two weeks on
.onday as weaknesses in iron ore prices weighed on the maLor miners while a soggy
performance by the big banks ensured a negati!e start to the week$ It may be retracement o!erall
trend of ne4t week will be highly like bullish$
hy we say the price will be go up in ne4t week because of applying the difference tools and
also define here what will be support '1 and '2 as well as esistance 1 and 2 by using the
i!ot point tool$ /s we use Aibonacci tool we calculate the retracement le!el how much price
will be goes down for different standard of Aibonacci retracement$
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Conclu#ion
e obser!e 1 week candles in which we analyFe that trend is going upward after become DOJI
on 13 may2016 then we do fundamental analysis and apply different oscillators ./,D O,
'I which forecast that ne4t week trend will be highly like to be bullish$ /lso define the price
limits 'upport and esistance le!el and retracement le!el$
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