auto wp lean and resilient

8/22/2019 Auto WP Lean and Resilient

1/14

Lean and resiLientthe new automotive suppLy chain hybrid

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2/14

In 2011, when the unthinkable happened the

Fukushima tsunami and nuclear meltdown in

Japan the global automotive industry was

already busy recovering rom the U.S. fnancial

crisis, dealing with a European market hobbled by

the Eurozone debt crisis, and scrambling to meet

demand in markets which are growing

exponentially, like China and India.

oyotas manuacturing was aected by the compound

disaster in Japan. But some o its suppliers, including

Renesas, were devastated. Renesas, explains Andrew

Zolli, author o Resilience: Why Tings Bounce Back,1

makes about 40 percent o the chip controllers that

power todays new cars. It had a just-in-time delivery

mechanism, where it delivered chips to the oyotasupply chain with a six-minute gap.

But at the time, Renesas only made the chips in one

actory in Japan. And when that actory was decimated,

manuacturing or oyota shut down immediately all

over the world. oyota literally couldnt get its hands on

the processing chips to run its new cars.

GM had a similar kind o exposure, with one critical

dierence, Zolli notes. GM had built sucient

redundancy into its supply chain so that it was able to

dynamically recongure its supply and value network to

ensure continued manuacturing o its most

protable vehicles.

Te result: GMs CEO, in the third and ourth quarter o

2011, was able to report that the terrible disaster in Japan

would have no impact on the companys earnings, even

though it had roughly the same exposure, in terms o

supply chain risk. By contrast, the quake cost oyota

nearly $3,500 million (See Figure 1) and knocked the

company rom its position as the worlds number one

automotive manuacturer.

Te automotive industry woke up to the act that, while its

just-in-time (JI) business model and super lean, highly

inter-dependent supply chains were wildly ecient, they

also were brittle - susceptible to disruption on a potentially

massive scale. Simply put, traditional just-in-time

automotive supply chains were not resilient and, as a result,

were at increasingly high risk o ailure.

Quake Costs (Million Dollars)Source: U.S. Department of Energy, April 16, 2012

1 Andrew Zolli, Resilience Strategies for a Volatile World, Harvard Business Review Interview http://blogs.hbr.org/ideacast, 2012/07.

Mitsubishi

Nissan

Suzuki

Mazda

Subaru

Honda

Toyota

0 500 1000 2000 30001500 2500 3500

Figure 1: Financial losses of Japans seven major automakers, March 11, 2011 March 31, 2012

2 Lean and resilient


3/14

Te new resilient automotive supply chain recognizes the

need or collective, rather than sequential, risk

management; and acilitates collaboration on the new scale

that is necessary or survival.2 It is built on true supply

chain partnerships that create agility and contingent scale/

capability, delivered in an on-call model. Tese

partnerships span all players in the sector: OEMs, suppliers

and supply chain service providers. Tey embody what

Zolli reers to as the two dening aspects o resilience:

Te ability to maintain a core purpose, or

Te ability to restore core purpose in the ace oa disruption.

T rlc mpratvActing on this knowledge, the industry and its supply

chain partners have embarked on eorts to cra a

revised operating model: Supply chains that are

simultaneously lean andresilient. Tis model retains

the principles o JI and lean, but adds in controlled

redundancy and contingent options to improve

resiliency and protect against ailure.

Te evolution toward this hybrid supply chain model

is ongoing. Automotive companies are re-balancing

their supply chains to build in careully managed

tolerances or volatility. Te goal is to build a supply

chain that can tackle conditions o systemic volatility

good and bad ranging rom the ordinary to the

unthinkable. And do so while preserving orenhancing protability.

2 Lisa H. Harrington, Sandor Boyson and Thomas Corsi, X-SCM: The New Science of X-treme Supply Chain Management, Routledge, 2010.

Zolli notes GM's CEO was able to report that theterrible disaster in Japan would have no impact onthe company's earnings

3Lean and resilient


4/14

A dtr xo understand this new hybrid automotive supply chain,

let us rst look at the industrys market dynamics. Tere

are our major trends re-shaping the sector.

Trd #1: Glbal grwt ad mrgg mart

Despite the drag eect o the debt crisis on the European

market, global automotive production is orecast to hit

record levels each year through 2017, with emerging

markets driving the growth. Tis increased production is

in direct response to demand caused by the rising

auence o emerging market populations, and their

ability to spend on vehicles.

For the rst time in history, emerging market vehicle

assembly exceeded established market assembly and isexpected to do so in the uture, observes consulting rm

PwC in a 2012 report on the automotive sector.

Looking urther out, vehicle assembly is expected to

reach 100 million units around 2017 (see Figure 2). 3

While the automotive sector is truly a global industry, it

is also highly concentrated. Te top 10 global

automakers account or roughly 80 percent o the

worldwide production. oyota, General Motors and

Volkswagen AG lead, with oyota recapturing rst place

in 2012. Asia, especially China and India, will drive

growth over the next ve to seven years. It is expected to

account or 40 percent o the sectors overall expansion.4

Part 1: Crrt tat ad drvg trd

3 PwC, Consolidation in the Global Automotive Supply Industry 2012, p. 1-3.4 PwC, p. 1-3.

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

100

80

60

40

20

0

Millions

Percentage

Assembly volume Excess capacity Utilization (right axis)

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2014 2016 20182013 2015 2017

Figure 2: Global light vehicle assembly outlook (20072018, millions)

Source: Autofacts 2012 Q3 Data Release, from PwC, Consolidation in the Global Automotive Supply Industry 2012.

Despite the drag eect o the debt crisis on theEuropean market, global automotive production isorecast to hit record levels each year through 2017

Te worlds largest assembly market, China, will likely

capture the biggest share o that growth. Analysts predictvehicle production will double during the next ve to

seven years, according to PwC. Te underlying reality

in China is that wealthier households are expected to

grow the astest at over 20 percent compound average



5/14

o meet the need or speed, while at the same time

reducing costs, VW is taking manuacturing

fexibility one step beyond the mega-plant, multiple

platorm model. Te German automaker is migrating

to a new modular tool-kit assembly system that will

allow it to build all o its vehicles using just our basic

toolkits one or small city cars, one or midsize cars,

one or sports cars and one or large cars and SUVs,

according to a prole in Forbes.5

VW believes its toolkit system will save at least 20

percent a year in per-vehicle costs and cut assembly

time by 30 percent.

growth rate, tripling the number o potential

automotive buyers every our to ve years, PwC states.

At the same time, Chinas nascent domestic car-

makers, typically joint ventures with global OEMs, are

churning out growing volumes o low-cost vehicles

designed or domestic-only consumption. Tis same

trend is developing in India and, soon, Arica.

Trd #2: Mga-plat ad mltpl platrm

Across the industry, companies are shiing to

producing multiple models or platorms in a single

plant to gain fexibility, reduce costs and better utilize

production assets. Tese mega-plants, based on the

concept o building to a common engineering

platorm, produce up to six dierent vehicles in onelocation. Tis improves capacity while reducing the

need to build new plants, comments Mike White,

Senior Vice President - Global Automotive Sector,

DHL Supply Chain.

Automakers are investing heavily in building these

mega-plants in China, Mexico and elsewhere. For

example, VW, along with its Chinese joint ventures, plans

to invest almost $80 billion in 10 new plants (including

seven in China).

As OEMs build mega-plants in new geographies, theyare asking component suppliers to ollow them intosupplier business parks - or clusters in order toprovide greater support.

At the same time, vehicle nameplate lie cycles are

shortening. oday, a vehicle model lasts our to ve

years vs. seven to eight years in the past. Tese shorter

liecycles have orced automakers and their suppliers to

re-vamp their business methodology in order to designand produce new vehicles on the shortened cycle.

Essentially, every process in the automotive supply

chain has sped up.

5 Joann Muller, How Volkswagen Will Rule the World, Forbes, 4/17/2013, p. 1-3.

5Lean and resilient


6/14

Reduced inbound logistics costs

Improved supply stability

Reduced risk rom long transit times, and

Improved responsiveness to change

Te supplier clustering model is well established in

Mexico, or example, where there are 13 large clusters o

suppliers and services or the automotive industry. Tese

clusters serve both the passenger car and the commercial

truck markets.

Government requirements or local content will uel this

clustering trend going orward. Governments o China,

Brazil and other countries are passing regulations to

require OEMs to use more local supply content in

vehicles. Tis means supplier clusters will develop in thenew manuacturing locations, but the process is likely to

take years. Even in developed markets like the U.S., it

took several years to build the regionalized supplier base

to support production in the Southeast.

Despite this trend, experts estimate that eight to 15 percent

o core components like engines and transmissions - will

continue to be sourced rom strategic suppliers back in

the OEMs home country. Tis may not sound like a lot

o volume, one automotive supplier acknowledges, but

these are critical components and the volume is

signicant enough to add complexity to the

supply chain.

Critical components sourced rom aar also include an

increasing percentage o electronics. As a result,

automotive supply chains are now inextricably linked to

supply chains outside the traditional automotive circle

e.g., consumer electronics. Teir operating ability

and ortunes - are now intertwined. And competitive

cost challenges dictate that most o the electronics intodays vehicles are imported rom the traditional

electronics manuacturing spots around the world

e.g., Asia and Mexico.

Tis modular approach will in large part

determine whether VW can pass oyota or GM.

Teres big risk here: I something goes wrong with

a shared component, the problem can quickly

multiply across VWs entire lineup.6

As OEMs build mega-plants in new geographies,

they are asking component suppliers to ollow them

into supplier business parks - or clusters in order

to provide greater support. Tis clustering conceptdelivers great benets to the OEMS, including:

Reduced time to produce, translating into

shorter time to market

6 Muller, p. 1-3.



7/14

Jaguar Land Rover, or example, which saw export sales in

China rise dramatically in the last year, decided to set up

production in China. Te British car maker entered into a

joint venture with Chinas Chery Automobile Company to

build up to 200,000 vehicles a year in a new $1.65 billion

manuacturing plant in Changshu, near Shanghai.

Trd #3: Gttg clr t t ctmr

OEMs are locating their new manuacturing plants closer

to their end markets. Automakers have moved rom

manuacturing in their home countries and shipping

nished vehicles to market, to a model o geographically

regionalized production i.e. manuacturing at, or near,

the point o demand. Tis means the industry is setting

up regionalized manuacturing plants and supplier

clusters in new locations all over the world, explains

Dennis Drinan, Vice President, Global Sector Products &

Head o LLP Service, DHL Supply Chain.

Automotive supply chains are now inextricably linkedto supply chains outside the traditional automotivecircle or instance, consumer electronics.

7Lean and resilient


8/14

Te allure o building plants in emerging markets is not

necessarily to take advantage o lower labor rates.

Instead, the primary drivers are reduced supply chain

costs, speed to market, access to market in response to

government requirements or taris, and support or

local content. Once sales volumes reach a certain point,

it no longer makes sense to ship nished vehicles

across oceans.

In the near term, at least, regionalization o production

immediately elongated and complicated the supply

chain. For German automakers like BMW producing in

their home country, all suppliers were nearby and

things were relatively simple. Changes could be made in

production schedules at short notice. Now, companies

are building cars in the U.S. or China, with German orother oreign components. Tis approach requires a lot

more discipline in the supply chain, Drinan says.

Trd #4: Rltl ct prr

Finally, there is one industry dynamic that permeates

every acet o automotive industry operations

worldwide: Relentless pressure to reduce costs.

Logistics costs typically represent ve to 10 percent

o manuacturing revenues in automotive. o be

more competitive, companies must use every trick in

the book to reduce costs and improve market share.

Tis brings the discussion ull circle right back to

risk and resiliency.

Tere is tremendous pressure to be leaner to hold

less and less inventory, while at the same time

guaranteeing reliabilityandresiliency. Tose two

objectives are oen in direct confict. I you wanted

to be sae, observes an auto industry executive, the

rst thing youd do is keep a lot o inventory nearby.

But your other goal is to be lean, so that meanstaking away most or all o the saety stock.

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9/14

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9Lean and resilient


10/14

As the entities charged with executing the automotive

supply chain day-to-day, the global lead logistics provider

(LLP) must have a portolio o solutions, alternatives,

expertise and systems at the ready to deliver this tactical

logistics agility. By way o illustration, consider

automotive manuacturers' strategy to build cars to actual

demand rather than to stock. Tis pleases the consumer,

providing exactly the vehicle he or she wants, and also

dramatically reduces nished goods inventory.

Building a supply chain that is both lean and resilient

means creating a new hybrid that balances the need

to reduce costs with eective use o redundancy,

contingent scale and capacity. Tis is no easy task,

and the solutions are dependent on multiple

variables. Tey dier by customer, by geography

and by provider.

In the automotive sector, however, certain attributes

are emerging as the hallmarks o this lean-resilient

supply chain hybrid.

Glball agl xctSupporting the globally regional automotive supply

chain with its need or leanness and responsiveness

requires a new level o tactical logistics agility acrossa global ootprint. Te days o knowing what is going

to happen 30 days out are gone. Tird-party logistics

providers (3PLs) that support the automotive industry

have to build supply chains that can switch gears at a

moments notice, but not break the bank in doing so.

Part 2: Bldg t la and rlt ppl ca

Delivering this strategy means setting up a postponementsystem capable o eeding the production line with the

right parts, even though the production schedule

timeline is shortened and may change at a days notice.

Tus, a manuacturing plant sends out a ve-day

production plan to its suppliers to build a certain

Tere is tremendous pressure to be leaner to holdless and less inventory, and at the same timeguarantee reliability and resiliency. Tose twoobjectives oen are in direct confict.



11/14

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number o cars over a certain number o days. It is the

LLPs job to manage the plants inbound-to-production

material fow and coordinate all inbound movements.

Te day prior to or even the day o the start o that

schedule, the plant revises the plan based on new

customer demand data. Te LLP immediately redesigns

the inbound route and supply chain solution based on

the new signal. o do this, it re-calibrates the

inormation rom the master strategic plan, as well as

the revised actual demand or the day o pick up, and

reengineers to ulll the new need. In the process, the

LLP must optimize the revised inbound delivery fow to

make sure the manuacturer does not incur higher

transportation cost.

Tis kind o agility means LLPs have to be a lot closer

to all o the supply chain data than they did in the past

data rom their customers, their suppliers and their

network. LLPs must be 100 percent aware o what is

going on at all times. Tis visibility enables

tactical agility.

Pla r t wIt is impossible to plan or every specic natural

disaster or major supply chain event. What companies

can do is develop contingency plans around types o

supply chain deciencies.

o build these contingent solutions, best practice 3PLs

perorm extensive what ifscenario modeling on a

broad range o events and situations. Using such

modeling scenarios, the LLP can test dierent solutions

geared to specic customers, see what works, and learn

how to best respond to minimize impact. Tus, when

something does happen, like a major supply disruption

rom a disaster, or i something seems likely to occursuch as a port strike, the 3PL network has the processes

in place to react quickly and move material around to

eliminate or mitigate impact on the customer.

Ral-tm, mlt-tr vbltAs noted, supply chain resiliency is impossible without

accurate real-time supply chain condition inormation.

Visibility improves resiliency in a number o ways, as

Martin Christopher, o the Craneld School o

Management explains. It reduces uncertainty and

enables the goal o a demand-driven supply chain to be

achieved. Second, it reduces supply chain risk through

shared inormation, both upstream and downstream o

the rms operations.

Best-in-class global LLPs can provide what amounts to

an on-the-ground sensor grid in their countries o

operations, geared to monitoring supply chain condition

continuously. Teir supply chain soware solutionsdeliver visibility into supplier production, inventory and

in-transit goods. Using this inormation, the LLP

develops a supply logistics plan or every part all the way

11Lean and resilient


12/14

Partr vatIn the automotive sector, resilient supply chain

management is based on partnerships, particularly

with the LLPs that implement the on-the-ground

solutions. Tese are not the transactional buyer-vendor

relationships o old. Tey are more akin to a marriage.

Manuacturers have recognized that the old approach

o squeezing vendors on price does not support their

objectives. Instead, it is more about partnering to

develop an innovative continuous improvement plan,

which is backed up with the cost trade-o business

case or that plan.

An important component o this partnership is a

mutual understanding o value at risk on a bigger

to the production line. Tis plan incorporates cost per

unit, which the LLP uses to understand two things:

1 Te cost impact to the customer o a given supply

chain deciency, and

2 Te cost or alternate supply chain solutions and

how that expense impacts the overall supply chain

cost structure or the customer.

I, or instance, the supply chain lost three days out o

a 10-day lead time due to fooding, the LLP could ask

the supplier to run a three-day level quantity increase,

which the LLP would move by air reight over the

next three-day period. While the solution increases

transport costs, it prevents a production line shut-

down well worth the incremental transportation

cost increase.



13/14

enterprise-wide scale. Under this approach, the LLP and

automotive company can assess supply chain risk in the

context o what value is at risk i some or all o an

organizations capabilities were destroyed and it had to

start rom scratch. In other words, which market and

product or service it would ocus on rst, and how the

supply chain network should be shaped to operate in a

way that supports the companys priorities.

T p-d rlcTe automotive industrys journey toward creating

supply chains that are simultaneously lean andresilient

is still in its early stages. Te lessons learned over the

past ew years rom disasters, disruptions and high levels

o volatility make several points clear. Te increasing

vulnerability o supply chains requires a new ocus onmanaging and mitigating risk which extends beyond the

our walls o the single rm.7 Supply chain vulnerability

is a network-wide issue, and must be addressed on a

network-wide basis. Tis requires higher levels o

inormation sharing across the supply chain, particularly

with the LLPs charged with executing the collective 3PL

supply chain operations.

Best practice companies are partnering with global LLPs

to re-balance the automotive supply chain, enabling it to

fex and fux in response to volatility o any kind be it

an unexpected sales spike or a re at a major supplier.

Tis means building out capabilities, strategies, and

tactics that:

Deliver agility, appropriate redundancy, contingent

capacity that can be switched on at a moments

notice

Develop cost-eective alternative solutions and

scenarios to market or operating developments

e.g., the port strike re-routing scenario

Relentlessly improve visibility across the supply chainvia robust I architecture and close linkages into

supply chain participants systems to enable a control

tower view o what is going on in the supply chain,

complete with proactive alerts on existing or potential

problems, and

Partner or mutual benets by collaboratively

ocusing on metrics and continuous improvement

Te LLPs job is to understand the unknown and

engineer a portolio o ully costed alternatives and

solutions that can be rapidly deployed across all parties

in the automotive supply chain. Tis means having the

people, systems, processes, capacity and tools in place to

deal eectively with volatility.

7 Martin Christopher and Helen Peck, Logistics Europe, February 2004, p. 17-21.

13Lean and resilient


14/14

Abt t atr

Strategic consultant, academic and co-author o three

books, Lisa Harrington oers a global supply chainperspective.

At the Robert H. Smith School o Business, University o

Maryland, Lisa is Associate Director o the Supply Chain

Management Center and Faculty Lecturer on Supply

Chain Management. She also is President o the

lharrington group LLC, a rm providing strategic

consulting services across global supply chain strategy,

operations and best practice.

Lisas articles have appeared in Fortune, Industry Week,

Te Economist, Inbound Logistics, Te European

Business Review and many other publications.

DHL T Lgtc cmpa r t wrld

DHL is the global market leader in the logistics industry

and Te Logistics company or the world. DHLcommits its expertise in international express, air and

ocean reight, road and rail transportation, contract

logistics and international mail services to its customers.

A global network composed o more than 220 countries

and territories and about 285,000 employees worldwide

oers customers superior service quality and local

knowledge to satisy their supply chain requirements.

DHL accepts its social responsibility by supporting

environmental protection, disaster management

and education.

DHL is part o Deutsche Post DHL. Te Group

generated revenue o more than 55 billion euros in 2012.

www.dhl.com/automotive

Tose companies that embrace the new normal o

continuous and sometimes radical supply chain

volatility and risk, and put the processes and systems in

place to better manage both, regularly outperorm their

competitors. Companies that ignore or lag behind in

addressing supply chain volatility do so at the peril o

their bottom lines and their shareholder condence.

As the lessons o oyota, GM and the Fukushima

disaster teach us, Market volatility is a tremendous

source o opportunity or companies that have

developed the capabilities to not only manage risk

but also respond to it more eectively than

their competitors.8

2013 | DHL Supply Chain Limited | All Rights Reserved

8 Accenture, Corporate Agility: Six Ways to Make Volatility Your Friend, Walt Shill, John F. Engel, David Mann and Olaf Schatteman, 2012, No.3 issue of Outlook, p. 4.


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