autofacts r - medzsurpass last years 14.4m units for the full year. autofacts sees full-year 2013...

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Autofacts R

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Despite ongoing concerns in select regions, the stabilisation of several key automotive markets in 2013 has positioned the global automotive industry to forge ahead with technological innovation, further driving strategic partnerships and increased merger and acquisition activity.

Year in review

While there is seldom an occasion where the global industry has performed in sync, 2013 does promise to mark a turning point for the European Union, setting the region up for a long awaited, albeit slight, recovery in 2014. This will bring the region in line with the recent recoveries in North America and Eastern Europe and the continued growth in Developing Asia-Pacific and South America.

Areas of concern remain, however, as developed Asia-Pacific (Japan, South Korea, Australia) is expected to see assembly declines throughout the forecast window. Stagnant economic conditions, high labor costs, and localisation of products currently tagged for export are all factors constraining production in these markets. ME&A is also experiencing a significant decline as sanctions against Iran and political uncertainty within the region remain prevalent. Despite these setbacks, global light vehicle production is expected to reach 81.8m units in 2013, representing a 3.3% YoY gain.

Looking beyond the numbers, several key developments began to take shape during 2013 that promise to have a significant impact on the global automotive outlook going forward. Announced in July 2013, the formation of a strategic partnership between GM and Honda to develop next-gen fuel cell technologies represents a growing trend of strategic collaborations and resource pooling to drive and deliver innovation to the masses.

Although M&A activity is down in 2013, companies continue to strengthen and/or broaden their capabilities. The pace of acquisitions is expected to quicken, particularly in the areas of fuel economy and safety systems. Furthermore, OEMs and suppliers in developing markets will seek to acquire distressed companies with established capabilities in these areas, setting the stage for more geographically balanced – and competitive – core competencies in the future.

Quarterly Forecast Update Industry poised to end year on a good note

October 2013

Global: Year-over-year (YoY) Assembly Change by Region 2012 vs. 2013(f)

Source: Autofacts 2013 Q4 Data Release

4.94%

South America

4.94%

North America

-0.91%

European Union

5.95%

Eastern Europe

9.61%

Developing Asia-Pacific

-16.13%

Middle East & Africa (ME&A)

-4.57%

Developed Asia-Pacific

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Sales

All three countries in the North America continue to grow at impressive rates, with the US leading on a volume basis and Mexico on a percentage basis. The US market has sold more vehicles through September than it did all of 2010 and should easily surpass last years 14.4m units for the full year. Autofacts sees full-year 2013 sales reaching 15.6m units – the region’s fourth consecutive year with gains of over a million units. For 2014, Autofacts expects sales to reach 16.2m units which, though not as large as recent growth, would still represent a healthy gain.

The question at hand for the US will now shift towards where the natural rate of demand will be now that the market has essentially recovered from the lows of 2009. Autofacts anticipates that demand for new vehicles will fluctuate between 16m to 17m units by the end of the decade.

Canada is currently on track to have a record year for new vehicle sales, surpassing the previous high of 1.69m units in 2007. Autofacts currently forecasts Canadian sales to reach 1.74m units for the full year.

Assembly

Though mature and stable, the North American topline continues to expand with increasing vehicle sales and further investments by OEM’s in the region. The region is now forecasted to produce nearly 16.2m units in 2013, the highest number since 2002. Capacity in the region is forecasted to grow from 15.4m units in 2012 to 18.4m units in 2017.

Key Statistics

(YTD)

% Change

(YoY)

US light vehicle sales +8.1%

Canada light vehicle sales +3.4%

Mexico light vehicle sales +8.9%

Regional assembly +5.0%

Assembly 2012-2019 CAGR +2.8%

half of the year has dissipated, even as the IPI tax holiday winds down in October. Stimulus measures including lowered interest rates have been offset by tighter credit restrictions in lending, restraining full- year 2013 sales forecast to ~1.3% YoY growth. Brazil’s auto industry trade group, ANFAVEA, is aiming to improve the sales climate by lobbying for a change in leasing requirements that would shift the onus of taxes and fines from lenders to vehicle owners. Current leasing structures hold financial institutions accountable for payment of these fees, but a transfer of responsibility could encourage banks to increase lease lending and in turn, boost auto sales. While no changes have been enacted to date, the proposed modifications are expected to pass and could become effective before the end of the year.

Argentina has enjoyed impressive YoY growth in new car sales, hitting record highs in the summer before slowing its pace in August. While the overall economy is expected to grow at less than 3%, auto sales have surged in 2013 with imports accounting for the majority of the growth in sales volume. As inflation and volatile currency exchanges continue to dog the economy, cars are considered safer investments, bolstering sales growth.

Assembly

In contrast to the stagnant sales market, the assembly volumes in Brazil have seen steady growth with full-year 2013 assembly expected to reach ~3.4m units. Several global OEMs, including GM, Volkswagen and Daimler, have announced capacity investments in the next few years, pushing assembly to just under 4m units by 2015. More announcements import tariffs continue incentivizing OEMs to produce locally. Meanwhile, Argentinean production has been impacted by the sluggish Brazilian sales market, seeing an overall decline in demand from their largest trading partner. Though assembly has not kept pace with sales, full year 2013 year growth of ~7.7% is still

Key Statistics

(YTD)

% Change

(YoY)

Brazil new light vehicle registrations +2.5%

Brazil light vehicle assembly +11.2%

Argentina light vehicle sales +18.7%

Assembly 2012-2019 CAGR +6.9%

North America Key Regional Statistics

South America Key Regional Statistics

Sales

Encouraging growth seen in Brazil during the first

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Sales

As predicted previously, this past summer is likely to have marked the bottom of the EU market following over five years of decline. Q3 2013 saw the first quarterly YoY growth in two years with a 2.6% improvement. Full-year registrations are expected to reach 12.15m – a 3% decline. Within the region, many markets are beginning to see growth with some of the hardest hit markets showing signs of sustained growth. Portuguese sales have increased over four consecutive months with a 15.7% rise in the third quarter, and Hungary has experienced seven consecutive months of gains with a 20% increase in the third quarter.

Elsewhere, concerns remain regarding France, Italy and Germany, suggesting that total YoY growth in the fourth quarter could be lower than seen in the third quarter. The German market is underperforming given the low unemployment rates and strength of consumer sentiment, but it remains to be seen whether weakness is due, at least in part, to consumers holding off until the full outcome of the elections is known. Meanwhile, the UK – the region's second largest market and also the strongest performing market this year – has grown 10.8% year-to-date (YTD). However, fourth quarter YoY growth will likely be significantly lower, as demand was particularly strong in late 2012.

For 2014, Autofacts anticipates growth of 3.5% to just under 12.6m units, with demand being constrained by continued high unemployment and weak economic growth in many European countries . As unemployment is expected to fall through 2014 and economic growth within the region starts to gain

Key Statistics

(YTD)

% Change

(YoY)

New car sales -4.0%

Sales forecast (full year) -3.0%

Regional assembly -0.9%

Regional 2012-2019 CAGR +2.5%

European Union + EFTA Key Regional Statistics

traction towards 2015, demand for new cars should increase.

Assembly

If assembly output is any indication, the low point has passed within the EU markets. Indeed, light vehicle assembly has shown surprisingly strong growth in select markets in the third quarter, with OEMs adding capacity and working days for the production of key models. Autofacts has revised the EU assembly forecast to 15.8m units for the full 2013, which is a meager 0.9% YoY decline. The 2014 outlook is expected to show signs of recovery with 3.2% growth forecasted as exports stabilise and vehicle output within the region is more closely tied to demand growth. Recent announcements regarding the planned assembly localisation by select OEMs will boost the assembly topline over the mid term. Approximately 500k units of assembly could be added, pushing regional output past the 17m mark by 2015 and also helping to push utilisation above 80% by 2016.

Key Statistics

(YTD)

% Change

(YoY)

Russia new light vehicle registrations -6.4%

Russia light vehicle assembly -0.6%

Turkey light vehicle assembly +12.6%

Regional 2012-2019 CAGR +6.0%

Sales

New vehicle sales and registrations within the Eastern European region continue to show diverse results between markets. Registrations are still on the downtrend in Russia with seven consecutive months of decline, prompting ministry officials to offer interest rate subsidies to stimulate sales. The program, enacted in July and continuing into 2014, is expected to boost sales by an estimated 250k units. Early consumer response has been positive, resulting in a reduction in the forecasted full-year decline of 5.9%, down from 6.1%.

After a tough year in 2012, Turkey seemed back on track with sustained growth in 2013. September marked the first month of YoY decrease (-2.4%) due

Eastern Europe Key Regional Statistics

expected. As with much of region, Argentina’s expansion hinges on multiple monetary and economic policy variables, most of which are subject to significant state intervention and thus remain volatile.

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to a number of factors, including shrinking domestic demand and a weakening export market.

Additionally, the Turkish lira has depreciated against the US dollar due in part to uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve’s bond-buying program. The unfavorable currency rates have constrained the import market which is primarily financed through bank loans. This current contraction is expected to be short lived, with full-year 2013 sales in Turkey forecasted to reach 840k units for a 8.2% growth over 2012.

Moderate but sustainable growth is anticipated for the surrounding Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) going into 2014 and beyond, as countries like Kazakhstan continue to see increases in domestic demand as well as regional exports.

Assembly

Though the sales market has seen a slowdown in Russia, assembly remains slightly positive, with an additional ~12k units of output in 2013 as compared to 2012 to reach just under 2.1m units. More definitive growth is expected for 2014 and beyond, with investments by global OEMs looking to shift away from importing and increase domestic production. Turkey is already seeing a boost in locally produced models, including significant capacity increases for the Hyundai i10 and Toyota Corolla. Full-year 2013 production is expected to total ~1m units and reach nearly 1.2m units by 2014.

Other developing CIS nations are expanding assembly as well, increasing their production potential in hopes of attracting capacity investments. The region is rife with opportunity, and as long as progress continues, these emerging countries could become future assembly bases as OEMs continue towards the mantra of “build it where you sell it.”

Sales

The Japanese light vehicle sales market continues to post declines, though it should be noted that 2012 growth was due in large part to the eco car cash incentives that pulled ahead sales. Even so, Japanese brands continue to struggle within their home market. Smaller, more efficient vehicles like minis and hybrids remain popular, increasing their respective market shares to 41% and 15%. Import sales volume s, though a relatively low portion of the total market at 172k units, are also experiencing robust growth, gaining a full percentage of market share from 4% to 5%. The long term outlook for the market as a whole remains bleak as an aging, urbanised population continues to contract with demand falling accordingly. Perhaps a silver lining can be found with the 2020 Tokyo Olympics, which could stimulate the economy and spur growth in auto sales.

Vehicle sales in Australia grew to 737k units YTD, putting the market on pace for another year of sales surpassing the 1m unit mark. SUVs, particularly those with diesel engine variants, continue to gain favor with consumers with a 30% share of the total market. Meanwhile, once popular domestically sourced sedans have now dipped below 10% market share – a reflection of the quickly-shrinking assembly base.

Consumers in South Korea have shown a marked shift towards imports, which have jumped 29% YoY as domestic brands have been holding flat in terms of sales. Free trade agreements and generous discounts have made import prices much more competitive, enticing consumers to shop beyond the confines of their home market brands. However, the South Korean population is experiencing demographic shifts not unlike that of Japan, suggesting a slower pace of growth in the long-term.

Assembly

Concurrent declines in domestic sales and export volumes have resulted in decreased total assembly volumes in Japan, which are expected to decrease YoY by 6.8% to reach just over 8.7m for the full year. Though the Yen exchange rates have become more favourable to Japanese OEMs in recent months, investment in R&D centers, powertrain plants, and supplier parks within growing overseas markets is expected to continue. This long-term transition will require an industry-wide focus on addressing excess capacity going forward.

Developed Asia-Pacific Australia, Japan, and South Korea

Key Statistics

(YTD)

% Change

(YoY)

Japan light vehicle sales -8.0%

South Korea light vehicle sales +3.0%

Australia light vehicle sales +4%

Regional assembly -4.6%

Assembly 2012-2019 CAGR -1.1%

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China

The sales environment in the Chinese market continued to grow throughout the first three quarters of the year, supported by strong consumer demand and a relatively low basis in 2012. YTD light vehicle sales have reached12.5m units for a positive gain when compared YoY. SUVs continue to outpace other segments, reporting an increase of 47.1% in YTD sales through August. Most major brands have brought recent introductions and/or refreshed crossover and SUV models to market to cash in on this trend.

Sales are expected to remain strong through the remainder of the year despite economic uncertainty. Consumer sentiment has improved thanks to the official implementation of stricter vehicle recall policies, which are aimed to encourage higher quality through stiff penalties for delayed recall

Key Statistics

(YTD)

% Change

(YoY)

China light vehicle sales +13.5%

China Light vehicle assembly +11.8%

India light vehicle sales -8.0%

India light vehicle assembly -5.1%

Assembly CAGR 2012 to 2019 +7.7%

announcements. This, combined with anticipated product launches, will help encourage consumers to visit their local dealerships. Full-year 2013 sales are expected to reach 18.1m units, a 14.4% increase over 2012. It should be noted that Q4 2012 numbers were impacted by the territorial dispute over the Senkaku – Diaoyu islets. The closing months of 2013 should show a marked improvement over 2012 given the subsequent recovery of Japanese brands.

China light vehicle assembly has also enjoyed continued expansion, with YTD assembly reaching 13.1m. Japanese brands are expected to increase their production to continue recovering lost market share. Though the year started off with slower production, strong consumer demand has driven higher levels of assembly, with full-year 2013 assembly expected to reach 18.5m units.

India

Until recently, India was seen as a high-potential, upcoming market with automakers benefitting greatly from a burst in consumer-driven growth in overall consumption, including new light vehicles. However, the industry is now struggling along with the national economy. Once growing over 50% between 2010 to 2012, sales of new vehicles are now in their ninth consecutive month of decline.

Sagging customer demand has been compounded by a combination of deflating conditions. The growing current account deficit– a reflection of the widening gap between imports and exports – has triggered fluctuations in the dollar to Rupee exchange rate. While the currency has rebounded since plunging to all-time lows in August, the auto sector faces additional industry-specific hurdles. Utility vehicles, which reign as one of the most popular segments, are now subject to a 3% tax, while high financing costs and rising fuel prices are dampening hopes for a turnaround in demand.

As monsoon season comes to an end, there is hope that perhaps the downturn will soon be a thing of the past, particularly for rural households whose income has the potential to give a much needed boost to the Indian light vehicle market. However, the slow pace of policy reform and the widespread infrastructure issues will continue to restrain sales in the short term. Full-year sales is forecasted to decline by over 5% for 2013, with hope that the new year will help boost consumer sentiment and in turn, sustainable growth in sales and assembly for the remainder of the forecast window.

With recent withdrawals from the Australian assembly base, volumes are expected to remain relatively flat around 250k units for the remainder of the decade. OEMs are expected to shift their product mixes to better reflect consumer preferences for SUVs, but such programs may not be sustainable should parliament discontinue incentives to retain manufacturing operations within Australian borders.

Also holding flat are South Korean assembly volumes, growing at a scant 0.14% YoY to reach just under 4.4m units. Increasing labor costs, disruptive strikes, and the strengthening Won are all impacting the overall appeal of maintaining the country as an export base, and all will likely be factors as OEMs reconfigure their global footprint. With these constraints in mind, total South Korean assembly volume is forecasted to hover around the 4.5m mark for the remainder of the forecast window.

Developing Asia-Pacific China and India

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October 2013

2Rankings based on contribution to total global growth (CTG%).

Source: Autofacts Global Light Vehicle Assembly Outlook 2013 Q4 Data Release (Updated October 01 2013)

1Developed Asia-Pacific includes Australia, Japan, South Korea | Developing Asia-Pacific includes China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Pakistan, Philippines, Taiwan, Thailand, Vietnam

Baseline assembly forecast data - Global

Country 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Unit diff. % chg CAGR CTG % Rank

1 China 16,696,064 18,483,049 20,706,735 23,080,285 25,155,718 26,584,689 9,888,625 59.2% 9.7% 44.0% 1

2 USA 10,097,912 10,899,425 11,668,762 12,239,215 12,568,368 12,915,180 2,817,268 27.9% 5.0% 12.5% 2

3 Japan 9,359,348 8,725,480 8,621,405 8,414,025 8,298,129 8,247,445 -1,111,903 -11.9% -2.5% -4.9% 52

4 Germany 5,645,037 5,553,945 5,576,088 5,748,887 5,923,726 6,187,879 542,842 9.6% 1.9% 2.4% 9

5 South Korea 4,384,596 4,390,690 4,427,454 4,521,544 4,501,071 4,550,320 165,724 3.8% 0.7% 0.7% 18

6 India 3,425,285 3,320,802 3,474,624 3,864,083 4,527,925 5,131,886 1,706,601 49.8% 8.4% 7.6% 3

7 Brazil 3,109,008 3,396,837 3,597,534 3,980,955 4,483,115 4,692,702 1,583,694 50.9% 8.6% 7.0% 4

8 Mexico 2,847,732 2,917,970 2,940,150 3,158,454 3,250,892 3,383,961 536,229 18.8% 3.5% 2.4% 10

9 Thailand 2,313,284 2,696,605 2,919,141 3,181,813 3,410,355 3,539,623 1,226,339 53.0% 8.9% 5.5% 5

10 Spain 1,944,656 2,098,781 2,244,922 2,588,567 2,763,196 2,837,222 892,566 45.9% 7.8% 4.0% 6

11 Russia 2,087,860 2,099,680 2,238,099 2,414,108 2,639,883 2,837,315 749,455 35.9% 6.3% 3.3% 7

12 Canada 2,450,339 2,341,729 2,180,995 2,094,537 2,051,857 2,107,118 -343,221 -14.0% -3.0% -1.5% 51

13 France 1,950,044 1,822,344 1,926,742 2,017,717 2,235,381 2,319,130 369,086 18.9% 3.5% 1.6% 13

14 United Kingdom 1,558,165 1,592,162 1,557,026 1,685,346 1,711,707 1,733,732 175,567 11.3% 2.2% 0.8% 17

15 Indonesia 945,577 1,124,017 1,442,492 1,507,317 1,574,886 1,608,903 663,326 70.2% 11.2% 3.0% 8

16 Turkey 1,005,200 1,097,103 1,166,286 1,283,226 1,342,576 1,422,390 417,190 41.5% 7.2% 1.9% 12

17 Czech Republic 1,088,377 1,011,659 1,111,395 1,161,287 1,165,859 1,174,817 86,440 7.9% 1.5% 0.4% 23

18 Italy 635,165 576,438 621,324 957,028 1,109,123 1,167,750 532,585 83.8% 13.0% 2.4% 11

20 Argentina 736,336 793,638 766,387 848,524 906,713 977,053 240,717 32.7% 5.8% 1.1% 15

20 Iran 1,063,403 698,636 677,727 732,501 850,096 976,819 -86,584 -8.1% -1.7% -0.4% 49

21 Slovakia 779,411 817,037 831,563 797,388 777,167 718,286 -61,125 -7.8% -1.6% -0.3% 48

22 Malaysia 547,478 607,186 765,274 820,421 857,499 881,465 333,987 61.0% 10.0% 1.5% 14

23 Poland 635,841 582,772 556,818 604,160 667,585 654,218 18,377 2.9% 0.6% 0.1% 37

24 South Africa 538,799 537,947 575,975 608,624 619,678 633,263 94,464 17.5% 3.3% 0.4% 22

25 Hungary 230,727 325,140 465,037 497,144 451,645 414,749 184,022 79.8% 12.4% 0.8% 16

26 Belgium 504,633 441,721 414,589 299,944 307,849 318,574 -186,059 -36.9% -8.8% -0.8% 50

27 Romania 338,182 411,131 372,907 354,981 348,323 347,065 8,883 2.6% 0.5% 0.0% 41

28 Taiwan 315,922 340,038 355,958 351,517 359,319 354,284 38,362 12.1% 2.3% 0.2% 32

29 Uzbekistan 243,603 265,870 253,494 261,204 267,776 277,983 34,380 14.1% 2.7% 0.2% 33

30 Australia 229,196 218,719 254,961 264,212 253,983 262,923 33,727 14.7% 2.8% 0.2% 34

31 Morocco 108,726 184,962 215,463 232,358 248,195 258,809 150,083 138.0% 18.9% 0.7% 19

32 Sweden 151,183 142,763 150,959 228,177 257,191 259,640 108,457 71.7% 11.4% 0.5% 21

33 Colombia 149,749 151,126 174,995 184,907 188,232 197,079 47,330 31.6% 5.6% 0.2% 28

34 Pakistan 151,814 153,074 163,290 176,051 176,515 181,756 29,942 19.7% 3.7% 0.1% 36

35 Slovenia 130,949 84,881 127,836 166,401 188,409 170,983 40,034 30.6% 5.5% 0.2% 30

Top 35 total assembly 78,399,601 80,905,357 85,544,407 91,326,908 96,439,942 100,327,011 21,927,410 28.0% 5.1% 97.5%

Top 35 (% of global total) 98.9% 98.9% 98.8% 98.7% 98.7% 98.6% 97.5%

Growth analytics (2012-2017)

Region1 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Unit diff. % chg CAGR CTG % Rank2

1 Asia-Pacific - developing 24,517,872 26,869,862 29,985,847 33,157,119 36,246,221 38,475,473 13,957,601 56.9% 9.4% 62.1% 1

2 European Union 15,915,153 15,770,608 16,267,392 17,494,732 18,342,376 18,756,292 2,841,139 17.9% 3.3% 12.6% 3

3 North America 15,395,983 16,159,124 16,789,907 17,492,206 17,871,117 18,406,259 3,010,276 19.6% 3.6% 13.4% 2

4 Asia-Pacific - developed 13,973,140 13,334,889 13,303,820 13,199,781 13,053,183 13,060,688 -912,452 -6.5% -1.3% -4.1% 7

5 South America 4,171,558 4,504,482 4,710,604 5,202,280 5,778,910 6,088,041 1,916,483 45.9% 7.9% 8.5% 4

6 Eastern Europe 3,477,104 3,683,936 3,968,579 4,298,634 4,600,708 4,901,262 1,424,158 41.0% 7.1% 6.3% 5

7 Middle East & Africa 1,798,824 1,508,615 1,561,357 1,688,720 1,862,921 2,041,409 242,585 13.5% 2.6% 1.1% 6

Global total assembly 79,249,634 81,831,516 86,587,506 92,533,472 97,755,436 101,729,424 22,479,790 28.4% 5.1% 100.0%

Global total capacity 101,908,978 106,372,936 112,878,507 120,437,439 125,163,201 125,550,516 23,641,538 23.2% 4.3%

Global excess capacity 22,659,344 24,541,420 26,291,001 27,903,967 27,407,765 23,821,092 1,161,748 5.1% 1.0%

Global utilisation (%) 77.8% 76.9% 76.7% 76.8% 78.1% 81.0%

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Alliance group 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Unit diff. % chg CAGR CTG % Rank

1 Toyota Group 10,589,068 10,665,006 10,836,569 11,022,746 11,174,085 11,411,592 822,524 7.8% 1.5% 3.7% 9

2 GM Group 9,375,145 9,803,594 10,218,378 10,766,942 11,639,801 12,161,075 2,785,930 29.7% 5.3% 12.4% 1

3 VW Group 9,184,443 9,563,663 9,900,626 10,661,606 11,527,849 11,954,017 2,769,574 30.2% 5.4% 12.3% 2

4 Renault-Nissan 8,023,485 8,048,195 8,839,747 9,689,230 10,176,969 10,536,836 2,513,351 31.3% 5.6% 11.2% 3

5 Hyundai Group 7,182,498 7,520,959 7,827,461 7,959,059 8,404,049 8,744,268 1,561,770 21.7% 4.0% 6.9% 6

6 Ford Group 5,456,831 6,067,175 6,304,561 6,794,493 7,191,385 7,393,243 1,936,412 35.5% 6.3% 8.6% 4

7 Fiat Group 4,402,225 4,309,137 4,399,083 5,049,898 5,737,443 6,152,532 1,750,307 39.8% 6.9% 7.8% 5

8 Honda Group 4,069,175 4,390,264 4,960,185 5,299,797 5,393,121 5,501,202 1,432,027 35.2% 6.2% 6.4% 7

9 PSA Group 3,079,569 3,159,426 3,372,918 3,620,519 3,778,591 3,975,185 895,616 29.1% 5.2% 4.0% 8

10 Suzuki Group 2,455,203 2,306,651 2,352,701 2,444,991 2,463,554 2,689,893 234,690 9.6% 1.8% 1.0% 19

11 BMW Group 1,917,852 2,044,141 2,077,931 2,197,657 2,313,997 2,404,673 486,821 25.4% 4.6% 2.2% 14

12 Daimler Group 1,732,727 1,864,060 1,982,371 2,144,347 2,145,872 2,293,872 561,145 32.4% 5.8% 2.5% 11

13 Mazda 1,327,881 1,423,460 1,619,898 1,724,378 1,746,766 1,827,489 499,608 37.6% 6.6% 2.2% 13

14 Mitsubishi Group 1,104,103 1,189,377 1,419,732 1,525,383 1,498,254 1,502,978 398,875 36.1% 6.4% 1.8% 15

15 Geely Group 943,756 979,823 1,110,975 1,303,174 1,385,152 1,466,287 522,531 55.4% 9.2% 2.3% 12

16 Chang'an Group 1,035,616 1,064,493 1,163,735 1,237,841 1,284,361 1,273,957 238,341 23.0% 4.2% 1.1% 18

17 Tata Group 899,508 885,910 977,618 1,185,363 1,367,344 1,492,758 593,250 66.0% 10.7% 2.6% 10

18 Great Wall 645,497 758,574 760,880 812,508 894,764 943,531 298,034 46.2% 7.9% 1.3% 17

19 Dong Feng 680,771 728,580 734,864 745,966 734,991 760,980 80,209 11.8% 2.3% 0.4% 28

20 Chery Auto 590,701 518,147 654,291 755,285 878,192 938,311 347,610 58.8% 9.7% 1.5% 16


Top 20 total capacity 92,760,354 96,903,411 102,374,547 109,595,395 113,841,435 114,250,431 21,490,077 23.2% 4.3% 90.9%

Excess capacity 18,064,300 19,612,776 20,860,023 22,654,212 22,104,895 18,825,752 761,452 4.2% 0.8% 100.0%

Global utilisation (%) 80.5% 79.8% 79.6% 79.3% 80.6% 83.5%

Platform 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Unit diff. % chg CAGR CTG % Rank

1 MQB 117,033 1,052,806 2,024,485 4,227,384 5,573,664 5,846,992 5,729,959 4896.0% 118.6% 25.5% 1

2 HD 2,476,850 2,864,858 2,902,775 2,878,964 3,023,216 3,242,786 765,936 30.9% 5.5% 3.4% 16

3 MC (Toyota Motor Corporation) 3,186,827 3,327,878 3,243,274 2,997,011 2,541,209 1,707,308 -1,479,519 -46.4% -11.7% -6.6% 385

4 C1/P1 2,081,575 2,400,903 2,237,893 2,396,493 2,364,356 2,464,502 382,927 18.4% 3.4% 1.7% 33

5 PQ35/46 (A5) 4,106,435 3,232,515 2,678,048 1,630,627 1,069,452 985,782 -3,120,653 -76.0% -24.8% -13.9% 386

6 X85/B 1,913,339 1,871,375 1,939,999 2,024,664 2,018,795 2,100,670 187,331 9.8% 1.9% 0.8% 54

7 GLOBAL DELTA 1,528,738 1,560,474 1,621,395 1,808,573 2,067,817 2,729,367 1,200,629 78.5% 12.3% 5.3% 7

8 NF 1,619,693 1,662,940 1,621,534 1,768,305 1,971,117 1,965,553 345,860 21.4% 3.9% 1.5% 36

9 HGSC 1,266,551 1,447,107 1,815,615 1,808,260 1,872,370 2,008,536 741,985 58.6% 9.7% 3.3% 17

10 GLOBAL GAMMA 866,609 1,393,223 1,530,607 1,753,717 2,123,744 2,231,576 1,364,967 157.5% 20.8% 6.1% 4

11 NBC 1,760,019 1,651,163 1,712,460 1,735,907 1,546,558 1,184,579 -575,440 -32.7% -7.6% -2.6% 381

12 MINICAB 1,458,294 1,496,369 1,486,542 1,502,337 1,494,700 1,568,384 110,090 7.5% 1.5% 0.5% 66

13 B2E 951,239 1,186,428 1,404,946 1,625,478 1,772,018 1,800,726 849,487 89.3% 13.6% 3.8% 14

14 CARRY 1,426,999 1,269,537 1,365,217 1,354,239 1,313,850 1,267,985 -159,014 -11.1% -2.3% -0.7% 355

15 150L 1,278,209 1,251,645 1,470,783 1,378,790 1,284,355 1,295,452 17,243 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 134

16 X84/C 1,712,659 1,668,120 1,237,912 1,071,481 937,252 1,053,111 -659,548 -38.5% -9.3% -2.9% 382

17 B0 (Renault) 1,006,884 1,150,378 1,172,712 1,299,304 1,466,716 1,582,058 575,174 57.1% 9.5% 2.6% 24

18 FIAT/GM 199/4400 1,344,607 1,294,877 1,330,435 1,348,548 977,569 908,544 -436,063 -32.4% -7.5% -1.9% 373

19 MLB 1,001,953 1,063,384 1,130,168 1,208,039 1,247,614 1,462,622 460,669 46.0% 7.9% 2.0% 27

20 IMV 1,134,149 1,103,028 1,136,577 1,159,559 1,175,258 1,202,112 67,963 6.0% 1.2% 0.3% 87



8 Autofacts


Analyst Note Plus

October 2013



Brand 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Unit diff. % chg CAGR CTG % Rank

1 Toyota 8,227,545 8,271,188 8,367,027 8,460,881 8,572,841 8,766,240 538,695 6.5% 1.3% 2.4% 10

2 Volkswagen 6,265,324 6,477,696 6,532,405 7,015,506 7,494,991 7,645,970 1,380,646 22.0% 4.1% 6.1% 3

3 Ford 5,371,299 5,965,254 6,169,705 6,605,414 6,898,364 7,086,488 1,715,189 31.9% 5.7% 7.6% 1

4 Chevrolet 4,850,991 5,114,329 5,475,092 5,781,409 6,141,961 6,353,937 1,502,946 31.0% 5.5% 6.7% 2

5 Nissan 4,618,921 4,637,039 5,161,325 5,378,728 5,370,883 5,476,366 857,445 18.6% 3.5% 3.8% 6

6 Hyundai 4,465,491 4,694,422 4,926,928 4,962,462 5,245,108 5,521,091 1,055,600 23.6% 4.3% 4.7% 5

7 Honda 3,823,990 4,162,206 4,722,123 4,991,291 4,970,857 5,075,245 1,251,255 32.7% 5.8% 5.6% 4

8 Kia 2,700,661 2,805,246 2,853,117 2,949,761 3,110,401 3,177,150 476,489 17.6% 3.3% 2.1% 16

9 Renault 2,124,621 2,057,784 2,098,533 2,344,529 2,653,007 2,740,043 615,422 29.0% 5.2% 2.7% 9

10 Peugeot 1,812,031 1,828,337 1,906,724 2,038,037 2,148,825 2,215,384 403,353 22.3% 4.1% 1.8% 17

11 Fiat 1,873,105 1,748,878 1,691,534 1,865,835 2,241,599 2,390,468 517,363 27.6% 5.0% 2.3% 13

12 Mercedes-Benz 1,624,676 1,772,002 1,887,606 1,994,294 1,990,951 2,148,261 523,585 32.2% 5.7% 2.3% 12

13 BMW 1,603,075 1,708,872 1,760,604 1,842,465 1,898,369 1,972,730 369,655 23.1% 4.2% 1.6% 19

14 Audi 1,469,197 1,601,384 1,703,028 1,850,000 1,894,584 2,004,078 534,881 36.4% 6.4% 2.4% 11

15 Mazda 1,327,881 1,423,460 1,619,898 1,724,378 1,746,766 1,827,489 499,608 37.6% 6.6% 2.2% 14

16 Suzuki 1,460,480 1,397,280 1,523,926 1,556,303 1,573,492 1,600,919 140,439 9.6% 1.9% 0.6% 42

17 Citroen 1,267,538 1,331,089 1,466,194 1,582,482 1,629,766 1,759,801 492,263 38.8% 6.8% 2.2% 15

18 Wuling 1,383,305 1,403,522 1,450,579 1,462,938 1,449,767 1,520,944 137,639 10.0% 1.9% 0.6% 43

19 Mitsubishi 1,030,404 1,091,331 1,307,396 1,419,515 1,399,817 1,407,209 376,805 36.6% 6.4% 1.7% 18

20 Buick 875,260 1,032,722 1,060,289 1,216,206 1,516,421 1,547,200 671,940 76.8% 12.1% 3.0% 8



Brand Nameplate 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Unit diff. % chg CAGR CTG % Rank

1 Toyota Corolla 1,198,249 1,170,453 1,263,224 1,229,445 1,210,340 1,262,997 64,748 5.4% 1.1% 0.3% 128

2 Ford Focus 1,040,077 1,129,343 995,605 932,617 1,054,209 1,127,210 87,133 8.4% 1.6% 0.4% 77

3 Ford F-Series 843,933 919,729 1,005,660 902,832 900,534 898,655 54,722 6.5% 1.3% 0.2% 164

4 Toyota Camry 858,421 869,499 859,040 885,685 909,514 905,243 46,822 5.5% 1.1% 0.2% 198

5 Hyundai Elantra/i30 764,844 848,300 809,436 786,054 833,925 951,760 186,916 24.4% 4.5% 0.8% 13

6 Ford Fiesta 715,832 738,415 744,515 800,067 884,818 911,348 195,516 27.3% 4.9% 0.9% 11

7 Volkswagen Golf 626,208 625,196 751,348 899,098 929,705 927,212 301,004 48.1% 8.2% 1.3% 3

8 Chevrolet Cruze 769,470 734,015 745,464 750,894 783,559 775,603 6,133 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 671

9 Honda CR-V 698,421 755,687 732,287 708,466 742,042 759,634 61,213 8.8% 1.7% 0.3% 138

10 Honda Civic 717,377 717,557 702,871 704,883 688,399 711,500 -5,877 -0.8% -0.2% 0.0% 1223

11 Volkswagen Polo 668,642 648,143 650,729 656,977 758,350 795,367 126,725 19.0% 3.5% 0.6% 37

12 Volkswagen Passat 604,468 589,736 586,680 646,510 710,959 720,783 116,315 19.2% 3.6% 0.5% 43

13 Toyota Hilux Vigo 622,860 610,336 618,250 627,410 630,375 648,206 25,346 4.1% 0.8% 0.1% 350

14 Honda Accord 546,470 650,989 644,158 629,568 647,501 637,089 90,619 16.6% 3.1% 0.4% 75

15 Hyundai Sonata/i40 549,618 524,553 520,309 538,938 619,641 630,478 80,860 14.7% 2.8% 0.4% 87

16 Hyundai Tucson/iX35 554,374 556,181 502,803 520,611 548,174 591,701 37,327 6.7% 1.3% 0.2% 257

17 Chevrolet Silverado 508,821 544,182 563,009 557,899 542,655 555,155 46,334 9.1% 1.8% 0.2% 201

18 Toyota Prius 497,279 564,866 530,193 539,133 533,252 538,900 41,621 8.4% 1.6% 0.2% 229

19 Wuling Sunshine 523,274 489,196 510,193 531,231 540,363 569,756 46,482 8.9% 1.7% 0.2% 200

20 Chang'an SC63/10 Series 500,466 445,529 514,137 498,217 512,854 450,694 -49,772 -9.9% -2.1% -0.2% 1407



9 Autofacts


Analyst Note Plus

October 2013

Baseline forecast data – Global powertrain


Engine family [designer] 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Unit diff. % chg 2012 share 2017 share

1 EA111/112 [VW] 3,414,936 3,356,226 3,266,139 3,230,542 3,405,180 3,468,237 53,301 1.6% 4.3% 3.4%

2 S [Renault-Nissan] 1,756,871 2,127,014 2,808,964 3,420,220 3,671,494 3,810,050 2,053,179 116.9% 2.2% 3.7%

3 EA827/113/888 [VW] 2,598,229 2,665,235 2,679,033 2,760,162 2,765,665 2,866,637 268,408 10.3% 3.3% 2.8%

4 ZR [Toyota] 2,148,885 2,291,669 2,500,852 2,550,732 2,560,730 2,610,486 461,601 21.5% 2.7% 2.6%

5 MZR/DURATEC HE [Mazda] 1,805,436 2,336,083 2,442,014 2,659,292 2,736,796 2,674,534 869,098 48.1% 2.3% 2.6%

6 EA086/153/188 [VW] 2,282,942 2,169,089 2,276,353 2,453,432 2,530,271 2,560,066 277,124 12.1% 2.9% 2.5%

7 THETA II [Hyundai] 1,890,154 2,200,145 2,258,047 2,421,793 2,696,162 2,706,911 816,757 43.2% 2.4% 2.7%

8 K [Renault] 1,943,259 1,897,181 1,828,708 1,857,900 2,069,408 2,258,459 315,200 16.2% 2.5% 2.2%

9 GAMMA [Hyundai] 1,772,230 1,842,755 1,965,435 1,932,504 2,055,027 2,196,655 424,425 23.9% 2.2% 2.2%

10 BDOHC [GM Korea] 2,215,959 2,165,925 2,251,687 1,864,963 1,574,707 1,592,304 -623,655 -28.1% 2.8% 1.6%

Top 10 total consumption 21,828,901 23,051,322 24,277,232 25,151,540 26,065,440 26,744,339 4,915,438 22.5% 27.5% 26.3%

Top 10 (% of total consumption) 27.5% 28.2% 28.0% 27.2% 26.7% 26.3% 21.9%

Engine size 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Unit diff. % chg 2012 share 2017 share

1 1001-1600 cc 30,149,695 30,770,538 33,006,549 35,560,069 38,688,008 40,751,424 10,601,729 35.2% 38.0% 40.1%

2 1601-2000 cc 17,015,238 18,412,102 19,371,580 20,646,661 21,148,932 21,947,148 4,931,910 29.0% 21.5% 21.6%

3 2001-3000 cc 14,705,773 14,888,044 15,682,133 16,695,787 17,378,671 17,726,767 3,020,994 20.5% 18.6% 17.4%

4 0000-1000 cc 7,574,307 7,885,250 8,647,673 9,764,231 10,611,788 11,175,270 3,600,963 47.5% 9.6% 11.0%

5 3001-4000 cc 6,414,192 6,316,974 6,169,579 6,087,014 5,997,114 5,998,222 -415,970 -6.5% 8.1% 5.9%

6 4001-9999 cc 3,263,626 3,335,510 3,192,739 3,028,066 3,008,237 3,101,208 -162,418 -5.0% 4.1% 3.0%

7 Electric 126,803 223,098 517,253 751,644 922,686 1,029,385 902,582 711.8% 0.2% 1.0%

Total consumption 79,249,634 81,831,516 86,587,506 92,533,472 97,755,436 101,729,424 22,479,790 28.4% 100.0% 100.0%

Fuel type 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Unit diff. % chg 2012 share 2017 share

1 Combustion Gasoline 61,779,916 63,855,123 67,292,024 71,558,019 75,191,834 78,018,013 16,238,097 26.3% 78.0% 76.7%

2 Combustion Diesel 15,292,829 15,217,745 15,752,418 16,724,752 17,626,980 18,283,540 2,990,711 19.6% 19.3% 18.0%

3 Hybrid (Mild+Full) 1,999,550 2,416,983 2,809,404 3,025,169 3,331,384 3,532,537 1,532,987 76.7% 2.5% 3.5%

4 PEV+PHEV (Electric) 177,339 341,665 733,660 1,225,532 1,605,238 1,895,334 1,717,995 968.8% 0.2% 1.9%


Transmission outlook 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Unit diff. % chg 2012 share 2017 share

1 Manual 39,152,396 39,052,823 40,698,632 42,988,328 45,251,460 46,982,459 7,830,063 20.0% 49.4% 46.2%

2 Automatic 28,487,636 29,106,005 29,857,143 30,888,524 31,662,127 32,155,958 3,668,322 12.9% 35.9% 31.6%

3 Continuously Variable 7,981,726 9,022,516 10,141,040 10,588,283 10,852,375 11,748,211 3,766,485 47.2% 10.1% 11.5%

4 Automated Manual Double Clutch 2,713,382 3,598,498 4,429,636 6,240,362 7,938,564 8,620,185 5,906,803 217.7% 3.4% 8.5%

5 Automated Manual 747,186 751,928 821,454 921,636 948,034 966,354 219,168 29.3% 0.9% 0.9%

6 Electric 159,725 285,797 612,280 870,393 1,066,327 1,216,508 1,056,783 661.6% 0.2% 1.2%

7 Automatic Hybrid 7,583 13,949 27,321 35,946 36,549 39,749 32,166 424.2% 0.0% 0.0%


Gear outlook 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Unit diff. % chg 2012 share 2017 share

1 5 33,271,625 31,894,051 31,766,442 32,503,283 33,443,665 33,942,182 670,557 2.0% 42.0% 33.4%

2 6 25,798,685 28,421,387 30,242,886 31,361,705 32,862,715 33,375,583 7,576,898 29.4% 32.6% 32.8%


4 4 8,165,088 6,828,777 6,548,392 6,520,060 6,330,262 6,508,562 -1,656,526 -20.3% 10.3% 6.4%

5 8 or more 1,641,332 2,676,620 3,895,200 5,794,600 7,008,090 8,245,573 6,604,241 402.4% 2.1% 8.1%

6 7 2,129,034 2,601,317 3,189,081 4,700,574 5,999,997 6,500,319 4,371,285 205.3% 2.7% 6.4%

7 3 or less 262,144 386,848 804,465 1,064,967 1,258,332 1,408,994 1,146,850 437.5% 0.3% 1.4%


10 Autofacts


Analyst Note Plus

October 2013

Baseline assembly forecast data – North America



1 GM Group 3,233,624 3,353,386 3,555,004 3,639,624 3,643,931 3,761,697 528,073 16.3% 3.1% 17.5% 1

2 Ford Group 2,804,933 3,097,854 3,095,074 3,049,890 3,072,439 3,112,255 307,322 11.0% 2.1% 10.2% 6

3 Fiat Group 2,362,712 2,378,365 2,454,763 2,527,266 2,568,452 2,721,225 358,513 15.2% 2.9% 11.9% 3

4 Toyota Group 1,957,777 2,033,206 2,094,721 2,198,890 2,182,037 2,304,396 346,619 17.7% 3.3% 11.5% 4

5 Honda Group 1,690,235 1,746,421 1,808,869 1,831,129 1,845,262 1,850,999 160,764 9.5% 1.8% 5.3% 8

6 Renault-Nissan 1,299,613 1,506,247 1,665,693 1,724,857 1,685,712 1,678,228 378,615 29.1% 5.2% 12.6% 2

7 Hyundai Group 719,547 772,250 785,329 812,361 1,016,748 1,065,163 345,616 48.0% 8.2% 11.5% 5

8 VW Group 755,676 692,254 623,854 842,641 1,005,165 1,035,664 279,988 37.1% 6.5% 9.3% 7

9 BMW Group 301,522 294,978 329,398 333,285 320,031 310,978 9,456 3.1% 0.6% 0.3% 13

10 Daimler Group 191,138 200,360 231,797 291,505 269,067 282,227 91,089 47.7% 8.1% 3.0% 10



Excess capacity 719,477 1,420,876 1,787,194 1,989,433 2,258,208 1,849,938 1,130,461 157.1% 20.8% 100.0%

Utilisation (%) 95.5% 91.9% 90.3% 89.7% 88.6% 90.7%


1 MC (Toyota Motor Corporation) 1,087,231 1,202,887 1,232,624 1,313,876 1,036,343 651,173 -436,058 -40.1% -9.7% -14.5% 83

2 K2XX 0 392,098 1,002,933 1,083,075 1,039,999 1,086,592 1,086,592 0.0% 0.0% 36.1% 1

3 C1/P1 522,390 741,455 730,432 724,019 863,983 879,899 357,509 68.4% 11.0% 11.9% 8

4 T1 (Ford Motor Company) 658,747 712,974 799,792 716,284 707,519 724,166 65,419 9.9% 1.9% 2.2% 28

5 NF 580,550 574,080 620,366 658,052 805,394 781,156 200,606 34.6% 6.1% 6.7% 14

6 D (Renault-Nissan) 477,072 593,395 558,823 599,773 587,085 576,577 99,505 20.9% 3.9% 3.3% 23

7 CD4 106,008 400,516 551,842 743,843 728,133 735,037 629,029 593.4% 47.3% 20.9% 5

8 GLOBAL DELTA 367,413 375,492 387,485 445,827 484,469 939,354 571,941 155.7% 20.7% 19.0% 6

9 PQ35/46 (A5) 747,014 690,759 623,854 398,051 199,237 199,989 -547,025 -73.2% -23.2% -18.2% 84

10 DS 421,589 445,699 502,190 481,511 460,093 516,001 94,412 22.4% 4.1% 3.1% 25


Top 10 (% of regional total) 32.3% 37.9% 41.8% 41.0% 38.7% 38.5% 70.5%


1 Ford 2,719,401 2,995,933 2,960,218 2,893,452 2,861,965 2,898,000 178,599 6.6% 1.3% 5.9% 8

2 Chevrolet 2,269,732 2,321,941 2,460,237 2,480,018 2,488,787 2,532,967 263,235 11.6% 2.2% 8.7% 4

3 Toyota 1,686,297 1,780,370 1,816,785 1,860,702 1,810,730 1,880,902 194,605 11.5% 2.2% 6.5% 6

4 Honda 1,514,968 1,590,046 1,629,393 1,652,297 1,623,551 1,632,965 117,997 7.8% 1.5% 3.9% 12

5 Nissan 1,266,862 1,457,980 1,623,200 1,686,448 1,633,605 1,626,302 359,440 28.4% 5.1% 11.9% 1

6 Jeep 714,648 726,755 891,250 932,263 963,225 1,049,423 334,775 46.8% 8.0% 11.1% 2

7 Volkswagen 755,676 692,254 623,854 842,641 907,862 885,207 129,531 17.1% 3.2% 4.3% 10

8 Dodge 709,994 752,710 592,601 567,238 433,539 426,868 -283,126 -39.9% -9.7% -9.4% 33

9 GMC 539,009 579,508 587,274 590,743 564,859 604,034 65,025 12.1% 2.3% 2.2% 19

10 Hyundai 459,439 504,933 520,438 516,613 666,248 728,780 269,341 58.6% 9.7% 8.9% 3



Brand nameplate 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Unit diff. % chg CAGR CTG % Rank

1 Ford F-Series 834,666 911,755 995,721 893,225 889,487 887,480 52,814 6.3% 1.2% 1.8% 28

2 Chevrolet Silverado 505,383 541,875 559,482 554,133 539,262 551,422 46,039 9.1% 1.8% 1.5% 33

3 Ram Pickup 421,589 445,699 502,190 481,511 460,093 516,001 94,412 22.4% 4.1% 3.1% 16

4 Toyota Camry 452,963 458,683 446,077 474,106 450,767 474,471 21,508 4.7% 0.9% 0.7% 65

5 Honda Accord 400,143 452,927 411,626 392,213 401,818 383,819 -16,324 -4.1% -0.8% -0.5% 179

6 Honda Civic 395,887 436,668 401,553 391,886 376,833 392,167 -3,720 -0.9% -0.2% -0.1% 160

7 Toyota Corolla 365,337 333,685 386,216 372,556 356,081 371,404 6,067 1.7% 0.3% 0.2% 107

8 Ford Escape 331,301 377,724 360,271 355,503 339,266 361,934 30,633 9.2% 1.8% 1.0% 55

9 Nissan Altima 334,710 388,225 360,048 349,121 342,816 340,284 5,574 1.7% 0.3% 0.2% 113

10 Honda CR-V 355,864 393,999 352,140 334,172 331,216 337,143 -18,721 -5.3% -1.1% -0.6% 182

Top 10 total assembly 4,397,843 4,741,240 4,775,324 4,598,426 4,487,639 4,616,125 218,282 5.0% 1.0% 7.3%


11 Autofacts


Analyst Note Plus

October 2013

Baseline assembly forecast data – South America



1 VW Group 945,427 963,893 962,273 1,054,626 1,170,058 1,213,033 267,606 28.3% 5.1% 14.0% 2

2 Fiat Group 858,874 805,401 780,153 841,067 1,055,056 1,153,651 294,777 34.3% 6.1% 15.4% 1

3 GM Group 787,834 913,483 918,870 916,643 923,681 936,025 148,191 18.8% 3.5% 7.7% 6

4 Renault-Nissan 488,987 408,550 466,714 527,510 548,698 583,282 94,295 19.3% 3.6% 4.9% 10

5 Ford Group 368,215 395,117 480,723 505,577 518,043 530,259 162,044 44.0% 7.6% 8.5% 4

6 PSA Group 234,408 303,274 289,886 361,694 367,311 379,497 145,089 61.9% 10.1% 7.6% 7

7 Hyundai Group 83,229 188,094 214,813 251,019 254,380 254,216 170,987 205.4% 25.0% 8.9% 3

8 Toyota Group 169,369 177,308 190,842 203,303 216,431 237,971 68,602 40.5% 7.0% 3.6% 12

9 Honda Group 98,237 175,580 173,393 176,672 235,893 255,538 157,301 160.1% 21.1% 8.2% 5

10 Chery Auto 15,694 46,588 74,303 82,436 129,554 140,710 125,016 796.6% 55.1% 6.5% 8



Excess capacity 1,326,003 1,729,919 1,979,375 2,190,094 2,106,335 1,928,983 602,980 45.5% 7.8% 100.0%

Utilisation (%) 75.3% 71.7% 69.7% 69.2% 72.0% 74.7%


1 PQ24 (AO4) 759,551 775,680 738,414 572,389 578,646 597,302 -162,249 -21.4% -4.7% -8.5% 93

2 FIAT/GM 199/4400 500,063 507,615 583,148 632,438 663,040 680,860 180,797 36.2% 6.4% 9.4% 5

3 GLOBAL GAMMA 97,798 365,608 420,730 462,171 458,936 512,863 415,065 424.4% 39.3% 21.7% 1

4 B2E 41,209 138,127 319,918 369,831 375,402 375,406 334,197 811.0% 55.6% 17.4% 2

5 GM4200 420,106 280,030 242,089 207,421 216,914 220,362 -199,744 -47.5% -12.1% -10.4% 95

6 B0 (Renault) 297,760 159,656 167,782 186,324 186,893 196,439 -101,321 -34.0% -8.0% -5.3% 91

7 PQ25 (AO5) 69,306 70,515 130,790 286,503 293,735 301,448 232,142 335.0% 34.2% 12.1% 4

8 HGSC 33,010 150,439 175,944 181,674 177,201 171,854 138,844 420.6% 39.1% 7.2% 7

9 PF1 57,750 119,481 117,122 157,166 158,858 118,939 61,189 106.0% 15.5% 3.2% 13

10 X85/B 92,450 120,507 107,536 124,226 132,810 140,887 48,437 52.4% 8.8% 2.5% 17




1 Volkswagen 945,427 963,893 962,273 1,019,863 1,114,418 1,154,030 208,603 22.1% 4.1% 10.9% 1

2 Chevrolet 787,834 913,483 918,870 916,643 923,681 936,025 148,191 18.8% 3.5% 7.7% 6

3 Fiat 843,561 784,090 744,820 801,762 928,025 1,020,378 176,817 21.0% 3.9% 9.2% 2

4 Ford 368,215 395,117 480,723 505,577 518,043 530,259 162,044 44.0% 7.6% 8.5% 4

5 Renault 422,171 378,824 375,148 414,107 433,502 460,280 38,109 9.0% 1.7% 2.0% 17

6 Peugeot 148,033 180,201 172,264 228,343 233,048 238,975 90,942 61.4% 10.1% 4.7% 8

7 Toyota 169,369 177,308 190,842 203,303 216,431 237,971 68,602 40.5% 7.0% 3.6% 12

8 Hyundai 71,554 176,726 202,976 239,274 242,347 242,080 170,526 238.3% 27.6% 8.9% 3

9 Honda 98,237 175,580 173,393 176,672 235,893 255,538 157,301 160.1% 21.1% 8.2% 5

10 Citroen 86,375 123,073 117,622 133,351 134,263 140,522 54,147 62.7% 10.2% 2.8% 15




1 Volkswagen Gol 402,001 405,152 430,619 423,545 431,840 443,059 41,058 10.2% 2.0% 2.1% 15

2 Fiat Uno 262,653 192,933 179,145 223,120 281,365 289,874 27,221 10.4% 2.0% 1.4% 36

3 Fiat Palio 193,324 203,717 203,923 203,485 196,509 210,272 16,948 8.8% 1.7% 0.9% 54

4 Chevrolet Onix 13,333 205,547 231,363 255,071 253,599 245,604 232,271 1742.1% 79.1% 12.1% 1

5 Volkswagen Fox 197,932 206,494 200,567 192,382 194,710 204,752 6,820 3.4% 0.7% 0.4% 78

6 Ford Fiesta 109,950 155,676 183,147 139,474 136,056 143,346 33,396 30.4% 5.4% 1.7% 26

7 Hyundai HB20 33,010 150,439 142,981 144,428 138,457 134,946 101,936 308.8% 32.5% 5.3% 2

8 Fiat Siena 100,821 106,450 97,875 108,965 111,200 119,880 19,059 18.9% 3.5% 1.0% 53

9 Fiat Strada 130,087 110,785 103,238 93,814 94,572 103,383 -26,704 -20.5% -4.5% -1.4% 164

10 Ford Ka 91,025 40,416 104,330 131,787 122,371 119,428 28,403 31.2% 5.6% 1.5% 33



12 Autofacts


Analyst Note Plus

October 2013



1 Automatic 12,182,823 12,402,325 12,432,275 12,657,407 12,640,350 12,438,793 255,970 2.1% 79.1% 67.6%


3 Manual 1,264,125 1,149,347 1,156,915 1,072,466 1,018,436 998,991 -265,134 -21.0% 8.2% 5.4%

4 Automated Manual Double Clutch 639,985 675,519 775,139 1,172,113 1,503,160 1,648,421 1,008,436 157.6% 4.2% 9.0%

5 Electric 40,428 98,723 134,362 164,525 189,104 243,714 203,286 502.8% 0.3% 1.3%

6 Automated Manual 0 5,239 11,753 12,508 28,004 46,914 46,914 0.0% 0.0% 0.3%


Baseline forecast data – North and South America

North America: fuel type and delivery by % share 2012 - 2017

North America: weighted engine displacement 2012 - 2017 (cubic centimeters)

South America: fuel type and delivery by % share 2012 - 2017

South America: weighted engine displacement 2012 - 2017 (cubic centimeters)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Gasoline Diesel Hybrid PEV+PHEV DI

2,700

2,800

2,900

3,000

3,100

3,200

3,300

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%


1,400

1,450

1,500

1,550

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017



1 Manual 3,843,719 4,087,869 4,177,704 4,479,726 4,865,045 5,011,904 1,168,185 30.4% 92.1% 82.3%

2 Automatic 301,427 339,758 372,368 415,732 438,781 446,635 145,208 48.2% 7.2% 7.3%

3 Automated Manual Double Clutch 7,017 20,274 49,083 116,637 186,190 308,282 301,265 4293.4% 0.2% 5.1%


5 Continuously Variable 3,511 33,008 64,662 77,493 135,433 157,495 153,984 4385.8% 0.1% 2.6%


13 Autofacts


Analyst Note Plus

October 2013

Baseline assembly forecast data – European Union



1 VW Group 4,425,041 4,414,119 4,612,643 4,934,571 4,968,437 4,990,353 565,312 12.8% 2.4% 19.9% 1

2 PSA Group 1,976,462 1,971,636 2,089,303 2,118,632 2,196,052 2,277,239 300,777 15.2% 2.9% 10.6% 5

3 Renault-Nissan 1,908,864 1,810,585 1,830,357 1,998,831 2,172,446 2,164,847 255,983 13.4% 2.5% 9.0% 7

4 Daimler Group 1,347,801 1,452,506 1,521,981 1,543,514 1,527,397 1,620,438 272,637 20.2% 3.8% 9.6% 6

5 BMW Group 1,358,509 1,407,606 1,366,649 1,464,323 1,583,237 1,665,638 307,129 22.6% 4.2% 10.8% 4

6 Ford Group 1,064,178 1,055,358 1,069,224 1,112,521 1,100,364 1,066,591 2,413 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 17

7 Fiat Group 872,044 751,624 795,147 1,162,571 1,369,197 1,397,491 525,447 60.3% 9.9% 18.5% 2

8 GM Group 941,952 869,306 869,257 934,070 1,173,376 1,271,016 329,064 34.9% 6.2% 11.6% 3

9 Hyundai Group 533,105 539,708 549,798 516,781 508,048 537,342 4,237 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 15

10 Toyota Group 364,796 436,446 474,414 474,312 448,098 443,467 78,671 21.6% 4.0% 2.8% 9


Top 10 total capacity 19,950,013 19,515,468 20,023,210 20,270,634 20,571,064 20,448,139 498,126 2.5% 0.5% 77.7%

Excess capacity 5,157,261 4,806,574 4,844,437 4,010,508 3,524,412 3,013,717 -2,143,544 -41.6% -10.2% 100.0%

Utilisation (%) 74.1% 75.4% 75.8% 80.2% 82.9% 85.3%


1 MQB 117,033 996,184 1,615,095 2,761,174 3,090,747 3,234,148 3,117,115 2663.4% 94.2% 109.7% 1

2 PQ35/46 (A5) 2,116,969 1,169,800 866,045 342,605 258,538 156,338 -1,960,631 -92.6% -40.6% -69.0% 144

3 PF1 695,211 831,259 841,040 829,629 792,622 660,000 -35,211 -5.1% -1.0% -1.2% 112

4 MLB 665,667 691,200 750,875 812,969 744,699 877,261 211,594 31.8% 5.7% 7.4% 13

5 C1/P1 559,289 576,974 601,467 570,501 538,328 515,080 -44,209 -7.9% -1.6% -1.6% 114

6 L7 446,566 572,557 588,794 539,577 545,857 518,327 71,761 16.1% 3.0% 2.5% 27

7 PF2 807,002 669,678 498,974 492,126 381,069 293,962 -513,040 -63.6% -18.3% -18.1% 142

8 X85/B 544,391 554,143 491,441 461,530 443,535 464,781 -79,610 -14.6% -3.1% -2.8% 122

9 HD 457,033 476,500 488,955 458,099 436,384 452,264 -4,769 -1.0% -0.2% -0.2% 90

10 MFA 210,068 388,466 487,603 515,924 465,708 454,925 244,857 116.6% 16.7% 8.6% 12




1 Volkswagen 2,207,927 2,141,211 2,219,125 2,371,488 2,465,026 2,459,732 251,805 11.4% 2.2% 8.9% 1

2 Mercedes-Benz 1,248,900 1,361,993 1,428,703 1,394,937 1,373,749 1,476,192 227,292 18.2% 3.4% 8.0% 3

3 Audi 1,132,784 1,177,393 1,192,421 1,263,588 1,165,334 1,177,880 45,096 4.0% 0.8% 1.6% 21

4 Peugeot 1,099,757 1,117,942 1,163,889 1,156,580 1,208,529 1,201,616 101,859 9.3% 1.8% 3.6% 13

5 BMW 1,043,732 1,072,924 1,051,263 1,111,305 1,172,508 1,240,010 196,278 18.8% 3.5% 6.9% 6

6 Ford 1,064,178 1,055,358 1,069,224 1,112,521 1,100,364 1,066,591 2,413 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 33

7 Renault 996,573 880,307 899,193 1,008,205 1,150,120 1,118,515 121,942 12.2% 2.3% 4.3% 8

8 Opel-Vauxhall 941,952 869,306 869,257 915,102 1,092,827 1,193,104 251,152 26.7% 4.8% 8.8% 2

9 Citroen 876,705 853,694 925,414 962,052 987,523 1,075,623 198,918 22.7% 4.2% 7.0% 4

10 Fiat 649,723 550,208 547,064 699,322 819,576 817,235 167,512 25.8% 4.7% 5.9% 7




1 Volkswagen Golf 475,804 495,763 598,546 589,599 582,680 573,301 97,497 20.5% 3.8% 3.4% 7

2 Ford Fiesta 350,332 338,969 308,310 336,401 389,522 387,980 37,648 10.7% 2.1% 1.3% 52

3 Opel-Vauxhall Corsa 294,441 278,923 269,955 247,174 304,500 330,745 36,304 12.3% 2.4% 1.3% 56

4 BMW 3 Series 339,920 360,568 289,174 249,354 229,653 254,170 -85,750 -25.2% -5.6% -3.0% 361

5 Peugeot 208 241,672 294,887 293,541 288,910 290,525 277,085 35,413 14.7% 2.8% 1.2% 59

6 Volkswagen Polo 287,289 262,756 257,263 252,525 284,291 291,763 4,474 1.6% 0.3% 0.2% 148

7 Opel-Vauxhall Astra 299,757 223,797 205,529 235,963 320,568 336,555 36,798 12.3% 2.3% 1.3% 54

8 Nissan Qashqai 310,837 288,364 239,825 247,669 241,147 236,910 -73,927 -23.8% -5.3% -2.6% 355

9 Volkswagen Passat 236,687 227,254 212,678 274,282 294,393 291,869 55,182 23.3% 4.3% 1.9% 30

10 Ford Focus 289,079 259,671 240,757 230,918 216,465 209,523 -79,556 -27.5% -6.2% -2.8% 358



14 Autofacts


Analyst Note Plus

October 2013

Baseline assembly forecast data – Eastern Europe



1 Renault-Nissan 1,104,458 1,134,338 1,162,982 1,258,147 1,428,836 1,553,733 449,275 40.7% 7.1% 31.5% 1

2 GM Group 541,182 509,931 501,773 510,946 537,799 566,087 24,905 4.6% 0.9% 1.7% 10

3 Hyundai Group 437,840 489,657 546,713 567,797 557,479 558,843 121,003 27.6% 5.0% 8.5% 5

4 Ford Group 385,063 389,458 422,438 531,977 545,343 567,724 182,661 47.4% 8.1% 12.8% 2

5 Fiat Group 216,270 278,000 251,005 257,606 327,684 396,808 180,538 83.5% 12.9% 12.7% 3

6 VW Group 211,468 221,903 268,061 277,178 288,456 307,140 95,672 45.2% 7.8% 6.7% 6

7 Toyota Group 112,547 143,505 189,867 186,980 240,585 248,140 135,593 120.5% 17.1% 9.5% 4

8 PSA Group 100,824 116,479 131,388 151,817 99,223 104,371 3,547 3.5% 0.7% 0.2% 19

9 GAZ Group 58,414 54,406 58,500 61,174 61,227 63,216 4,802 8.2% 1.6% 0.3% 18

10 Daewoo Group 39,264 24,766 46,395 51,792 53,133 56,385 17,121 43.6% 7.5% 1.2% 13



Excess capacity 1,731,054 1,797,504 1,923,487 1,838,375 2,173,237 2,077,042 345,988 20.0% 3.7% 100.0%

Utilisation (%) 64.9% 65.2% 65.0% 67.7% 65.6% 68.0%


1 B0 (Renault) 177,124 338,643 335,455 379,858 466,543 523,793 346,669 195.7% 24.2% 24.3% 1

2 HGSC 224,598 225,032 296,659 294,237 281,031 281,718 57,120 25.4% 4.6% 4.0% 11

3 X85/B 158,312 245,247 268,202 275,015 287,997 293,312 135,000 85.3% 13.1% 9.5% 6

4 2190 145,307 229,072 280,186 290,603 276,384 257,772 112,465 77.4% 12.1% 7.9% 9

5 V184/5 168,232 205,361 250,261 267,736 279,412 292,949 124,717 74.1% 11.7% 8.8% 8

6 GLOBAL GAMMA 105,714 170,466 212,403 228,445 230,015 240,603 134,889 127.6% 17.9% 9.5% 7

7 FIAT/GM 199/4400 243,265 215,699 188,825 191,660 127,164 129,276 -113,989 -46.9% -11.9% -8.0% 117

8 X84/C 117,952 100,464 99,544 114,592 190,684 266,024 148,072 125.5% 17.7% 10.4% 5

9 B-EVO 29,666 112,298 122,611 135,739 180,122 223,803 194,137 654.4% 49.8% 13.6% 3

10 2121 128,402 111,710 97,153 96,582 97,295 117,528 -10,874 -8.5% -1.8% -0.8% 101




1 Lada 600,713 495,850 457,973 521,121 642,358 735,319 134,606 22.4% 4.1% 9.5% 3

2 Renault 458,589 575,842 569,276 559,652 605,991 623,976 165,387 36.1% 6.4% 11.6% 2

3 Ford 385,063 389,458 422,438 531,977 545,343 567,724 182,661 47.4% 8.1% 12.8% 1

4 Chevrolet 337,417 323,655 351,844 358,294 382,543 406,683 69,266 20.5% 3.8% 4.9% 8

5 Hyundai 236,563 263,699 312,342 336,304 340,218 345,234 108,671 45.9% 7.9% 7.6% 6

6 Fiat 215,717 277,444 250,439 239,101 295,696 331,928 116,211 53.9% 9.0% 8.2% 5

7 Kia 201,277 225,958 234,371 231,493 217,261 213,609 12,332 6.1% 1.2% 0.9% 25

8 Toyota 112,547 143,505 189,867 186,980 226,466 233,236 120,689 107.2% 15.7% 8.5% 4

9 Volkswagen 113,297 128,283 136,452 140,088 143,421 150,980 37,683 33.3% 5.9% 2.6% 13

10 Skoda 98,171 86,053 120,438 119,507 127,341 137,205 39,034 39.8% 6.9% 2.7% 12




1 Renault Clio 158,312 230,465 232,812 221,811 227,063 226,556 68,244 43.1% 7.4% 4.8% 7

2 Ford Transit 150,974 163,178 172,976 180,924 189,911 201,355 50,381 33.4% 5.9% 3.5% 15

3 Lada Granta 149,548 185,047 173,536 177,412 170,156 155,600 6,052 4.0% 0.8% 0.4% 73

4 Hyundai Solaris 124,325 125,856 115,771 110,423 101,476 98,890 -25,435 -20.5% -4.5% -1.8% 221

5 Lada Kalina 119,522 72,058 99,169 109,271 102,716 98,519 -21,003 -17.6% -3.8% -1.5% 219

6 Fiat 500L 29,666 112,298 122,611 111,723 95,255 89,101 59,435 200.3% 24.6% 4.2% 9

7 Kia Rio 100,273 97,616 92,124 89,732 82,748 80,382 -19,891 -19.8% -4.3% -1.4% 218

8 Hyundai Getz/i20 82,713 86,911 82,622 87,417 89,366 89,445 6,732 8.1% 1.6% 0.5% 68

9 Chevrolet Spark 88,466 69,391 77,308 74,215 80,546 95,422 6,956 7.9% 1.5% 0.5% 67

10 Renault Symbol / Thalia 42,053 74,918 82,791 82,363 91,251 100,510 58,457 139.0% 19.0% 4.1% 10



15 Autofacts


Analyst Note Plus

October 2013

Baseline forecast data – Europe

European Union: fuel type and delivery by % share

2012 - 2017

European Union: weighted engine displacement

2012 - 2017 (cubic centimeters)

Eastern Europe: fuel type and delivery by % share

2012 - 2017

Eastern Europe: weighted engine displacement


0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%


1,500

1,600

1,700

1,800

1,900

2,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%


1,500

1,550

1,600

1,650

1,700

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017



1 Manual 11,243,812 10,861,151 10,949,986 11,558,954 11,961,774 12,061,484 817,672 7.3% 70.6% 64.3%

2 Automatic 2,622,359 2,645,764 2,648,834 2,736,647 2,872,596 3,104,661 482,302 18.4% 16.5% 16.6%

3 Automated Manual Double Clutch 1,210,439 1,405,882 1,584,613 2,065,087 2,375,604 2,472,600 1,262,161 104.3% 7.6% 13.2%

4 Automated Manual 544,792 495,096 521,788 518,242 453,713 410,632 -134,160 -24.6% 3.4% 2.2%

5 Electric 17,139 54,745 291,665 366,826 434,095 478,084 460,945 2689.5% 0.1% 2.5%

6 Continuously Variable 276,612 307,970 270,506 248,976 244,594 228,831 -47,781 -17.3% 1.7% 1.2%




1 Manual 2,986,502 3,019,640 3,194,089 3,451,649 3,674,736 3,941,873 955,371 32.0% 85.9% 80.4%

2 Automatic 351,688 488,544 549,825 531,671 538,254 555,191 203,503 57.9% 10.1% 11.3%



5 Continuously Variable 29,626 35,657 43,369 45,016 52,714 52,601 22,975 77.6% 0.9% 1.1%

6 Electric 19,778 26,566 21,204 21,523 25,933 30,430 10,652 53.9% 0.6% 0.6%


16 Autofacts


Analyst Note Plus

October 2013

Baseline assembly forecast data – Developed Asia Pacific



1 Toyota Group 4,916,519 4,631,813 4,318,317 4,146,151 4,144,758 4,091,794 -824,725 -16.8% -3.6% -90.4% 13

2 Hyundai Group 3,320,176 3,337,863 3,335,442 3,308,005 3,341,169 3,379,500 59,324 1.8% 0.4% 6.5% 2

3 Renault-Nissan 1,411,760 1,161,124 1,280,458 1,365,067 1,335,713 1,305,426 -106,334 -7.5% -1.6% -11.7% 11

4 Honda Group 1,029,855 955,046 1,060,095 1,061,185 991,524 1,003,220 -26,635 -2.6% -0.5% -2.9% 9

5 Mazda 890,715 989,525 1,022,019 1,018,145 983,485 1,021,149 130,434 14.6% 2.8% 14.3% 1

6 GM Group 880,962 903,113 910,477 871,749 851,699 893,233 12,271 1.4% 0.3% 1.3% 5

7 Suzuki Group 873,482 780,157 746,628 726,638 727,954 717,661 -155,821 -17.8% -3.9% -17.1% 12

8 Mitsubishi Group 451,889 386,998 442,963 501,111 482,368 464,528 12,639 2.8% 0.6% 1.4% 4

9 Mahindra 119,142 134,831 130,012 134,938 138,530 141,105 21,963 18.4% 3.4% 2.4% 3

10 PSA Group 45,751 32,216 36,637 34,591 32,808 33,039 -12,712 -27.8% -6.3% -1.4% 8

Top 10 total assembly 13,940,251 13,312,686 13,283,048 13,167,580 13,030,008 13,050,655 -889,596 -6.4% -1.3% -97.5%

Top 10 total capacity 16,295,678 15,099,251 14,823,998 14,872,180 14,800,757 14,721,492 -1,574,186 -9.7% -2.0% -93.7%

Excess capacity 2,355,427 1,786,565 1,540,950 1,704,600 1,770,749 1,670,837 -684,590 -29.1% -6.6% 100.0%

Utilisation (%) 85.5% 88.2% 89.6% 88.5% 88.0% 88.7%


1 HD 1,164,234 1,207,567 1,262,622 1,226,276 1,231,001 1,273,262 109,028 9.4% 1.8% 11.9% 10

2 MC (Toyota Motor

Corporation)

1,496,607 1,471,313 1,311,279 881,306 717,623 494,863 -1,001,744 -66.9% -19.9% -109.8% 108

3 NF 834,811 834,297 748,854 797,042 793,534 774,374 -60,437 -7.2% -1.5% -6.6% 91

4 SKYACTIV 244,555 577,159 856,488 881,817 928,100 948,403 703,848 287.8% 31.1% 77.1% 2

5 HGSC 561,273 577,308 694,793 674,006 689,343 702,048 140,775 25.1% 4.6% 15.4% 7

6 SI 552,812 591,494 591,104 585,594 498,428 490,429 -62,383 -11.3% -2.4% -6.8% 92

7 NBC 829,799 699,054 603,153 585,738 446,384 106,987 -722,812 -87.1% -33.6% -79.2% 107

8 L4 (Daihatsu Motor Company) 616,955 546,279 528,352 480,469 490,570 471,939 -145,016 -23.5% -5.2% -15.9% 101

9 YP/YN 585,032 551,389 493,009 462,577 419,620 422,384 -162,648 -27.8% -6.3% -17.8% 103

10 GLOBAL GAMMA 391,604 463,653 445,253 452,742 493,627 473,533 81,929 20.9% 3.9% 9.0% 13

Top 10 total assembly 7,277,682 7,519,513 7,534,907 7,027,567 6,708,230 6,158,222 -1,119,460 -15.4% -3.3% -122.7%



1 Toyota 3,180,437 2,877,642 2,572,483 2,447,201 2,475,131 2,438,408 -742,029 -23.3% -5.2% -81.3% 28

2 Hyundai 1,834,675 1,802,346 1,751,471 1,725,753 1,768,950 1,786,606 -48,069 -2.6% -0.5% -5.3% 22

3 Kia 1,485,501 1,535,517 1,583,971 1,582,252 1,572,219 1,592,894 107,393 7.2% 1.4% 11.8% 3

4 Honda 997,870 929,901 1,051,351 1,052,418 983,088 994,903 -2,967 -0.3% -0.1% -0.3% 16

5 Mazda 890,715 989,525 1,022,019 1,018,145 983,485 1,021,149 130,434 14.6% 2.8% 14.3% 2

6 Nissan 1,158,548 891,462 937,484 926,121 919,642 912,055 -246,493 -21.3% -4.7% -27.0% 27

7 Suzuki 873,482 780,157 746,628 726,638 727,954 717,661 -155,821 -17.8% -3.9% -17.1% 25

8 Daihatsu 696,950 620,754 588,342 540,856 549,931 530,819 -166,131 -23.8% -5.3% -18.2% 26

9 Chevrolet 547,271 542,595 592,172 609,153 575,238 606,830 59,559 10.9% 2.1% 6.5% 5

10 Subaru 563,425 588,897 587,268 586,303 506,355 474,996 -88,429 -15.7% -3.4% -9.7% 23

Top 10 total assembly 12,228,874 11,558,796 11,433,189 11,214,840 11,061,993 11,076,321 -1,152,553 -9.4% -2.0% -126.3%



1 Toyota Prius 481,470 550,956 516,184 524,346 518,237 522,513 41,043 8.5% 1.6% 4.5% 16

2 Mazda Axela 305,107 274,550 324,041 306,004 277,463 272,397 -32,710 -10.7% -2.2% -3.6% 318

3 Toyota Prius C/Aqua 334,250 304,416 258,395 250,801 246,180 280,073 -54,177 -16.2% -3.5% -5.9% 334

4 Mazda CX-5 204,926 281,242 235,925 227,170 216,704 244,223 39,297 19.2% 3.6% 4.3% 18

5 Hyundai Accent 248,067 237,039 237,487 207,007 239,856 232,702 -15,365 -6.2% -1.3% -1.7% 280

6 Hyundai Elantra/i30 248,953 240,661 228,937 218,562 223,930 220,913 -28,040 -11.3% -2.4% -3.1% 306

7 Kia Forte 213,611 209,219 245,165 224,745 196,305 197,178 -16,433 -7.7% -1.6% -1.8% 284

8 Kia Rio 221,845 226,084 197,012 204,742 192,550 219,908 -1,937 -0.9% -0.2% -0.2% 196

9 Toyota Land Cruiser 229,358 229,203 205,623 201,121 199,679 193,394 -35,964 -15.7% -3.4% -3.9% 321

10 Hyundai Tucson/iX35 219,941 200,330 187,479 201,584 212,232 225,643 5,702 2.6% 0.5% 0.6% 97

Top 10 total assembly 2,707,528 2,753,700 2,636,248 2,566,082 2,523,136 2,608,944 -98,584 -3.6% -0.7% -10.8%


17 Autofacts


Analyst Note Plus

October 2013

Baseline assembly forecast data – Developing Asia Pacific



1 GM Group 2,951,057 3,212,770 3,420,757 3,852,279 4,461,719 4,678,987 1,727,930 58.6% 9.7% 12.4% 1

2 VW Group 2,734,317 3,161,801 3,331,516 3,451,666 3,992,241 4,303,544 1,569,227 57.4% 9.5% 11.2% 2

3 Toyota Group 2,916,433 3,109,152 3,418,264 3,652,522 3,777,727 3,922,139 1,005,706 34.5% 6.1% 7.2% 6

4 Hyundai Group 2,075,413 2,184,869 2,386,820 2,493,351 2,714,805 2,938,251 862,838 41.6% 7.2% 6.2% 7

5 Renault-Nissan 1,482,861 1,701,556 2,063,950 2,377,642 2,522,462 2,722,445 1,239,584 83.6% 12.9% 8.9% 4

6 Honda Group 1,059,895 1,372,114 1,771,440 2,048,386 2,139,545 2,216,785 1,156,890 109.2% 15.9% 8.3% 5

7 Suzuki Group 1,434,328 1,386,887 1,430,699 1,526,155 1,562,019 1,798,411 364,083 25.4% 4.6% 2.6% 12

8 Ford Group 751,172 1,047,681 1,144,019 1,495,170 1,866,287 2,036,370 1,285,198 171.1% 22.1% 9.2% 3

9 Chang'an Group 1,035,144 1,064,493 1,163,735 1,237,841 1,284,361 1,273,957 238,813 23.1% 4.2% 1.7% 14

10 Geely Group 507,317 569,450 715,368 849,288 888,595 952,211 444,894 87.7% 13.4% 3.2% 10



Excess capacity 3,844,336 4,410,134 4,722,060 6,323,739 5,919,129 4,455,751 611,415 15.9% 3.0% 100.0%

Utilisation (%) 81.5% 81.0% 81.5% 78.4% 81.0% 85.8%


1 MINICAB 1,400,893 1,438,834 1,484,876 1,502,337 1,494,700 1,568,384 167,491 12.0% 2.3% 1.2% 32

2 CARRY 1,384,065 1,224,514 1,321,290 1,311,465 1,271,375 1,224,849 -159,216 -11.5% -2.4% -1.1% 233

3 PQ34 (A4) 785,158 942,763 961,497 1,002,681 1,008,649 1,031,696 246,538 31.4% 5.6% 1.8% 19

4 PQ35/46 (A5) 1,143,374 1,285,696 1,113,161 841,500 589,719 605,710 -537,664 -47.0% -11.9% -3.9% 236

5 IMV 917,202 910,107 926,404 933,705 936,507 953,861 36,659 4.0% 0.8% 0.3% 82

6 HD 640,886 861,368 859,264 915,882 1,023,119 1,108,332 467,446 72.9% 11.6% 3.3% 6

7 C1/P1 476,402 745,755 682,022 865,048 796,712 899,083 422,681 88.7% 13.5% 3.0% 8

8 MQB 0 37,425 362,291 839,795 1,387,138 1,517,682 1,517,682 0.0% 0.0% 10.9% 1

9 GLOBAL DELTA 499,169 530,882 589,991 681,253 793,086 908,285 409,116 82.0% 12.7% 2.9% 9

10 NBC 525,972 562,621 642,501 668,193 696,487 757,457 231,485 44.0% 7.6% 1.7% 24




1 Toyota 2,562,472 2,722,341 2,972,492 3,127,795 3,231,536 3,368,571 806,099 31.5% 5.6% 5.8% 4

2 Volkswagen 2,130,483 2,442,362 2,488,422 2,540,502 2,760,772 2,891,738 761,255 35.7% 6.3% 5.5% 5

3 Hyundai 1,551,317 1,637,016 1,845,546 1,860,603 1,947,097 2,127,526 576,209 37.1% 6.5% 4.1% 6

4 Nissan 1,403,325 1,518,141 1,678,554 1,764,657 1,769,781 1,859,168 455,843 32.5% 5.8% 3.3% 8

5 Honda 1,021,962 1,325,576 1,721,598 1,927,479 1,947,428 2,017,179 995,217 97.4% 14.6% 7.1% 2

6 Wuling 1,383,305 1,403,522 1,450,579 1,462,938 1,449,767 1,520,944 137,639 10.0% 1.9% 1.0% 28

7 Ford 751,172 1,047,681 1,144,019 1,462,529 1,783,740 1,943,870 1,192,698 158.8% 20.9% 8.5% 1

8 Chevrolet 883,920 982,246 1,120,684 1,367,166 1,659,899 1,761,558 877,638 99.3% 14.8% 6.3% 3

9 Chang'an 825,494 898,176 997,637 1,047,494 1,084,005 1,052,887 227,393 27.5% 5.0% 1.6% 19

10 Buick 677,286 809,806 828,520 918,846 1,193,476 1,231,582 554,296 81.8% 12.7% 4.0% 7




1 Toyota Corolla 543,516 548,634 563,152 561,366 565,146 586,778 43,262 8.0% 1.5% 0.3% 109

2 Toyota Hilux Vigo 539,392 531,887 535,442 537,248 535,914 548,191 8,799 1.6% 0.3% 0.1% 372

3 Wuling Sunshine 523,274 489,196 510,193 531,231 540,363 569,756 46,482 8.9% 1.7% 0.3% 98

4 Chang'an SC63/10 Series 500,466 445,529 514,137 498,217 512,854 450,694 -49,772 -9.9% -2.1% -0.4% 681

5 Dongfeng Xiaokang 447,028 455,277 446,067 413,505 352,411 357,363 -89,665 -20.1% -4.4% -0.6% 686

6 Hyundai Elantra/i30 374,583 409,469 415,536 413,183 398,641 446,840 72,257 19.3% 3.6% 0.5% 50

7 Volkswagen Lavida 250,304 415,942 425,264 446,253 435,658 434,601 184,297 73.6% 11.7% 1.3% 4

8 Wuling Hong Guang 339,509 394,966 402,719 390,845 390,188 412,621 73,112 21.5% 4.0% 0.5% 48

9 Wuling Rong Guang 378,268 346,259 371,260 377,676 363,288 378,040 -228 -0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 586

10 Ford Focus 325,736 441,089 338,381 273,467 292,624 367,529 41,793 12.8% 2.4% 0.3% 115



18 Autofacts


Analyst Note Plus

October 2013

Baseline forecast data – Asia Pacific

Developed AP: fuel type and delivery by % share

2012 - 2017

Developed AP: weighted engine displacement


Developing AP: fuel type and delivery by % share

2012 - 2017

Developing AP: weighted engine displacement


0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%


1,500

1,600

1,700

1,800

1,900

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%


1,500

1,600

1,700

1,800

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017



1 Continuously Variable 5,096,728 5,084,377 5,090,955 4,965,870 4,925,709 4,943,473 -153,255 -3.0% 36.5% 37.9%

2 Automatic 5,205,446 4,796,831 4,711,264 4,597,845 4,541,933 4,547,537 -657,909 -12.6% 37.3% 34.8%

3 Manual 3,518,321 3,284,051 3,094,142 3,042,457 2,870,971 2,802,207 -716,114 -20.4% 25.2% 21.5%


5 Electric 48,782 57,796 106,184 204,988 279,077 322,271 273,489 560.6% 0.3% 2.5%

6 Automatic Hybrid 7,583 13,949 27,321 35,946 36,549 39,749 32,166 424.2% 0.1% 0.3%


Total consumption 13,973,140 13,334,889 13,303,820 13,199,781 13,053,183 13,060,688 -912,452 -6.5% 100.0% 100.0%



1 Manual 14,637,574 15,294,638 16,738,742 17,897,994 19,220,596 20,365,912 5,728,338 39.1% 59.7% 52.9%

2 Automatic 7,693,012 8,291,453 8,981,659 9,761,604 10,428,830 10,844,193 3,151,181 41.0% 31.4% 28.2%


4 Automated Manual Double Clutch 704,433 1,318,756 1,627,307 2,325,925 3,213,559 3,511,782 2,807,349 398.5% 2.9% 9.1%


6 Electric 33,598 47,967 58,865 112,531 138,118 142,009 108,411 322.7% 0.1% 0.4%


autofacts r - medzsurpass last years 14.4m units for the full year. autofacts sees full-year 2013...

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