autonomous vehicles - impacts and opportunities
DESCRIPTION
Autonomous vehicles can evolve to impact society in profound ways by challenging assumptions we have lived by for generations. This presentation (and the discussion it supports) will explore the new opportunities as well as the challenges of autonomous vehicles, from how they will impact individuals’ lives during early adoption to how they will remake the urban cityscape in the long term. We will explore the technology’s impact on the concepts of vehicle ownership, parking, travel planning, and other parts of our lives shaped today around humans at the wheel, as well as practical challenges to realizing the long term opportunities.TRANSCRIPT
Autonomous Vehicles:Impact and Opportunities
June 2014
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Firelake Capital was founded in 2002 and has made 26 portfolio investments across two funds
We invest in technology solutions for resource efficiency
Notable portfolio companies include:– Kurion in high-value waste cleanup, – Simbol Materials in raw materials for batteries, – Bluwrap in fresh protein logistics, – Airware in UAV software operating systems, – Ruckus Wireless in urban high-density wireless bandwidth, and – EOS Climate in carbon emissions mitigation
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Autonomous vehicle technology is rapidly progressing
Driver Assist Proactive Vehicle Semi Autonomous
Fully Autonomous
Productio
n vehicles
Widely available today
Toyota 2014Mercedes 2014Volvo 2014Audi 2015Volkswagen 2014-15GM 2015
Mercedes 2014Volvo 2015Nissan 2015Toyota 2015-16Tesla 2016GM 2020
Tesla 2016 (?)Mobileye 2016Google 2018Nissan 2020Mercedes 2020BMW 2020-22
Prototypes
Volvo 2012 Google 2010Mercedes 2013BMW 2013Volvo 2017
Adaptive cruise control
Lane departure warning
Blind spot assist
Emergency intervention
Stop-and-go traffic assist
Automatic parking
Autonomous highway driving
Complex environments
All-weather Manual drive still
supported
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Critical factors aren’t keeping pace with core technology development
Category Key questions / issues
Liability questions
Represents a shift in responsibility for driving from driver to the vehicle itself
Increase in manufacturer’s product liability may delay adoption Do the laws provide automakers with liability protection for third-
party alterations or unintended uses?
Legal issues How are autonomous vehicles defined? Can state law accommodate federal preemption?
Architecture and technology
Direct to Level 4 autonomy, or incremental steps? (we believe direct to Level 4)
Laser scanner + cameras + other sensors; a sufficient approach? Cyber security concerns
Interactions with other vehicles
How will human drivers interact with other autonomous vehicles? Is Vehicle-to-Vehicle communications (V2V) required?
Interactions with road and infrastructure
Is Vehicle-to-Infrastructure (V2I) communications essential? Digital mapping detail
We believe the compelling benefits of autonomous vehicle technology will drive resolution to these obstacles in a reasonable timeframe
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Most people focus on the safety-related benefits of the technology
Autonomous vehicles have the potential to dramatically reduce car-related crashes, injuries and deaths as they Have faster reaction time than humans Can see 360 degrees Are programmed to follow local traffic laws Never get distracted, tired or impaired
Cost of car accidents 5.4 million accidents annually in U.S. 50 million injuries and 1.2 million fatalities
annually globally Most due to human error $160B overall cost #1 cause of death for 4-34 year olds
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TODAY FUTURE
However, the benefits of autonomous vehicles stretch well beyond safety and represent a true revolution
Hope you booked flight already ($$$)
Go to bed early Wake up at dark-o’clock and
find a taxi to the airport Suffer through security
screening, a cramped seat on airplane and endless rules, delays
Rent car at destination and drive to meeting
Repeat above on way home
Spontaneous decision to travel Request car via mobile app Enter destination, press Go Sleep Arrive at meeting in morning Return home at your leisure
Scenario 1: Travelling to a business meeting tomorrow morning 400 miles away
Today’s transportation reality is a series of steps fraught with stress and time wasting activities – autonomous vehicles change this entirely
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Autonomous vehicle technology changes how we perceive time and distance
Plan ahead Visits compete for open
weekends Time spent driving is lost Drive at most congested times
Spontaneous decision to travel Can visit any day of week Can work or sleep, etc. while in
transit More easily shift drive time to
less congested hours
Scenario 2: Ability to stay in touch with family or friends a three hour drive away
TODAY FUTURE
Today seeing people three hours away is a major event – autonomous vehicles allow for more frequent interactions and enables closer relationships
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The ripple effects of the technology are vast
Location is everything Defined by time lost getting
places Public transportation favors
only certain areas Balance travel time, home size,
price Housing market is efficient
around this
Meaning of “location” changes Time spent getting places is
not lost Purchase decision rebalanced
toward immediate environs Major dislocation in home
values
Scenario 3: Deciding where to live
TODAY FUTURE
Autonomous vehicles are like having door-to-door public transportation from everywhere to everywhere
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Autonomous vehicle technology dramatically extends the casual driving distance threshold
autonomous vehicle
overnight
autonomous vehicle
car
horse
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Early Adoption – Impact at Individual Level
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Late Adoption – Impact at Scale
Peter [email protected]