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TRANSCRIPT
Axis Dynamic Bond Fund
Why Invest in Bond Funds?
• Bond market cycles typically run counter to equity market cycles
• I.e., bonds tend to perform well in equity bear markets
• Thus they act as a counterbalance to equities
‐60%
‐40%
‐20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
S&P CNX Nifty I‐Sec Sovereign Bond Index (PRI)
Note: This is historical data. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future. Source of data: Bloomberg, ICICI Securities
Ret
urns
Bonds add diversification to the portfolio
• During recessions / bear markets
in equities, bonds have done well
historically
• Bonds help diversify risk and
protect against equity market
shocks in the portfolio
• Bond Funds thus deserve a place
in every investor’s long term
asset allocation
Total Return
Price Return
2001 ‐16% 25% 15%2002 3% 23% 14%2003 72% 12% 5%2004 11% ‐1% ‐9%2005 36% 6% ‐2%2006 40% 6% ‐2%2007 55% 7% ‐1%2008 ‐52% 27% 18%2009 76% ‐6% ‐13%2010 18% 6% ‐1%
Year S&P CNX Nifty
I‐Sec Sovereign Bond Index
Note: This is historical data. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future. Source of data: Bloomberg, ICICI Securities
Significantly lower risk• 3‐year rolling returns of stocks and bonds indicate that bonds have much lower
variability of returns (i.e. risk) as compared to stocks
• This is because unlike equities, bonds have a defined value at maturity
– Intermediate changes in value (mark‐to‐market) does not impact total returns
from the bond
‐20%
‐10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Bonds Stocks
12.0% 13.2%
Note: This is historical data. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future. High, Low and Average Rolling 3‐Year returns for the period 31st
December
1994
to
31st December 2010. Returns are compounded annualised. Stocks: S&P CNX Nifty, Bonds: I‐Sec Sovereign Bond Index . Source of data: Bloomberg, ICICI Securities
But where do I invest?
• There are several types of bond funds depending on their choice of asset
class
• Each segment or sector of the bond market behaves differently under
different economic conditions
Bond “Sector” Asset Class Key characteristics
Liquid / Ultra‐short Money market
instruments
Stable & predictable returns. Very low volatility and
high credit quality
Short Term Typically up to 3 year
government and
corporate bonds
Higher yields possible due to higher duration. More
volatile than money market
Income Longer term government
and corporate bonds
More possibilities for active management, but higher
volatility than short‐term funds.
Gilt Typically longer term
government bonds
More volatile than shorter term bonds, but offering
the highest potential for active management.
Importance of Active Management
• Fixed income assets tend to be
highly cyclical
• Different segments react
differently to changes in the
economic environment
• Choice of segment has significant
impact on performance
• So how do I choose which
segment to invest in?
2002IBEX
14.94%CCBI
10.59%CSTBI
7.11%CLFI
4.80%
2003IBEX
12.37%CCBI
8.12%CSTBI
5.44%CLFI
4.57%
2004CLFI
4.03%CSTBI
2.72%CCBI
‐0.33%IBEX
‐1.43%
2005IBEX
6.26%CCBI
4.75%CLFI
4.62%CSTBI
4.51%
2006IBEX
5.99%CLFI
5.93%CSTBI
5.47%CCBI
3.93%
2007CSTBI
8.03%CLFI
7.61%CCBI
6.96%IBEX
6.91%
2008IBEX
27.13%CSTBI
9.53%CCBI
9.06%CLFI
8.44%
2009CSTBI
6.58%CLFI
4.86%CCBI
3.50%IBEX
‐5.97%
2010IBEX
6.25%CLFI
5.12%CCBI
4.96%CSTBI
4.70%
IBEX: I‐Sec Sovereign Bond Total Return Index. CCBI: Crisil
Composite Bond Fund Index. CSTBI: Crisil
Short Term Bond Fund Index. CLFI: Crisil
Liquid Fund Index
Note: This is historical data. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future. Source of data: Bloomberg, AMFI, ICICI Securities
Axis Dynamic Bond Fund: An all‐weather income fund
Axis Dynamic Bond Fund has an objective to maximize risk‐adjusted returns to the investor
through active management of the portfolio
Flexibility to invest only in
high conviction ideas
Does not track benchmarks,
i.e. can be invested in
money market during rising
rate environment
Dynamic asset allocation
policy across fixed income
assets
Seeks to exploit market
opportunities & manage
risk
Outsource your Asset
Allocation
Able to invest across all
segments of fixed income
Money marketCorporate bonds Government bonds
Unconstrained Investment
Opportunity
Best Ideas Approach
Axis Dynamic Bond Fund
Investment Objective…to generate optimal returns while maintaining liquidity
through active management of a portfolio of debt and money
market instruments
Asset Allocation* Debt Instruments
0 ‐
100%Money Market Instruments
0 ‐
100%
Benchmark Crisil
Composite Bond Fund Index
Recommended Investment
Horizon 1 Year or more
StyleAbsolute return focus with the endeavour
to capture interest
rate cycles by actively managing the duration of the fund’s
portfolio
Note: Please refer to Slide 22 for the entire asset allocation of the Fund
Investment Strategy
Interest Rates
Interest rates are affected by the economic cycle & different
segments react differently to changes in the economic
environment
In‐depth economic & macro analysis allows the fund manager to
fully exploit the range of opportunities across the yield curve
Credit
We subscribe to the view that in credit risk, it is better to avoid
‘losers’
than trying to pick ‘winners’
Credit analysis of companies to arrive at an “Investment Universe”
Focus on maintaining high credit quality of the portfolio
Risk ManagementRisk management is integral to the investment process
We believe in risk as a choice than as a consequence
Risk Management
Up to 500 bps (absolute risk)
Unconstrained, subject to volatility
Max. 15% in a single AAA, 7.5% in a single AA+/AA2% in a single AA‐
or below
Govt. Bonds, Corp (AA or better)Max. 10% in AA‐
or below
Limits / Targets
Volatility
Duration Range
Credit Risk
Risk Factors
Diversification
Note: The limits/targets mentioned above do not form part of the regulatory/internal limits applicable to the scheme. The given
targets are set for the scheme with a view
to mitigate some of the major risks associated with it. These may change from time to time, depending on the market conditions and the view of the fund manager.
• Rajiv
Anand, MD & CEO
– A
Chartered Accountant with over 20 years experience in capital markets
– Led an award winning investment management team at IDFC (erstwhile Standard
Chartered) AMC
– Awarded Business Standard’s Debt Fund Manager of the year in 2004
– Worked in the Treasuries of HSBC and Standard Chartered Bank
• Chandresh
Nigam, Head ‐
Investments
– A Mechanical Engineer from IIT Delhi and PGDM from IIM Calcutta
– Over 19 years experience in equity fund management
– Previous experience includes TCG Advisory, ICICI Prudential AMC & Zurich India
AMC
– Zurich India Equity Fund, managed by Chandresh, won the Crisil
Best Fund Award
in 2002
Key Personnel*
*Key Investment Personnel w.r.t
fixed income fund management
Investment Team: Fixed Income
• R Sivakumar, Head – Fixed Income & Products
– PGDM from IIM Ahmedabad
and B.Tech. from IIT Madras
– Over 12 years of asset management experience including over 8 years managing
fixed income and structured products
– Previous experience includes Fortis
Investments, Sundaram
Asset Management
and Zurich India AMC
• Ninad
Deshpande, Fund Manager ‐
Fixed Income
– Engineer with post graduation in Management
– Over 9 years experience in fixed income as a portfolio manager and bond trader
– Previous experience includes Goldman Sachs AMC, Franklin Templeton AMC &
Bank of Bahrain & Kuwait
• Anurag
Mittal, Credit Analyst ‐
Fixed Income
– A Chartered Accountant & MSc
(Finance) from London School of Economics, UK
– Previous experience includes 4 years with ICICI Prudential Life Insurance & Bank
of America as an analyst
Fixed Income Markets
Global Economic Environment
• Challenging global macro outlook
– US: Withdrawal of QE2
– Euro: Sovereign credit crisis still underway– Japan: Post earthquake uncertainty
• Emerging markets facing problems the West would consider “good to
have”
– Higher inflation & interest rates
• Increased uncertainty around energy
– Nuclear energy on retreat: substitution demand for thermal (oil and
coal)
– Middle East crises
Source of data: Bloomberg
Indian Economic Environment
• Inflation fighting remains key concern for RBI
– Steady growth dynamics allows RBI to hike rates
– Oil impact is greater on inflation than growth
– Increasing spread to demand side factors: the rise in non‐food
manufactured products inflation
• Fiscal deficit projection keeps FRBM trajectory
– Deficit at 4.6% of GDP and market borrowing at Rs. 3.4 tn
positive for the market
– However subsidies likely to overshoot target on higher oil and food prices
Source of data: Bloomberg
Inflation: Remains a key concern
-2 0 %
-1 0 %
0 %
1 0 %
2 0 %
3 0 %
4 0 %
5 0 %
Dec
-05
Mar
-06
Jun-
06
Sep-
06
Dec
-06
Mar
-07
Jun-
07
Sep-
07
Dec
-07
Mar
-08
Jun-
08
Sep-
08
Dec
-08
Mar
-09
Jun-
09
Sep-
09
Dec
-09
Mar
-10
Jun-
10
Sep-
10
Dec
-10
S A In f la tio n H e a d lin e In f la tio n 4 p e r. M o v . A vg . (S A In f la tio n )
Seasonally adjusted inflation running in double digits, while the headline inflation has ticked
up. Revisions have been consistently to the upside.
Source of data: Bloomberg, Axis Mutual Fund Research
Yield CurveYield curve has seen a bear flattening move over the past year as RBI has continued to hike
interest rates
Source of data: Bloomberg
Money Market Curve
Tight liquidity conditions have led to a flat money market curve
that is about 400 bps above
last year’s level
Source of data: Bloomberg
Valuations
• Yields at the short end of the curve have responded to RBI’s rate hikes
• At the longer end, support from banks, insurance and providend
funds
have supported government and public sector bonds
• Non‐PSU 5‐year AAA levels, though, are approaching the 10% mark
• Fresh issuance of government bonds in the new year to be the key
factor
in direction of rates in the coming months
• In addition, RBI has indicated its intent to keep real rates in positive
territory to fight inflation
Source of data: Bloomberg
Interest Rate View
• Pressure on 10‐year yield to rise from current levels around 8%
– Higher & persistent inflation– Stable growth environment
– Pressure on bond markets from government issuance
• Short end of the curve offers better opportunities, albeit selectively
– Yields have already responded to monetary action
– AAA yields of 10% in this segment offering good accrual and spread to
government bonds
– Money markets currently reflecting the extreme monetary conditions
of 2010‐11
– Money
market
yields
likely
to
ease
as
liquidity
conditions
ease
to
normal levels
Source of data: Bloomberg
Key FeaturesType of Scheme An Open‐Ended Debt Scheme
Benchmark CRISIL Composite Bond Fund Index
Fund Manager R Sivakumar
–
Head – Fixed Income & ProductsNinad
Deshpande
–
Fund Manager – Debt
Load Structure Entry Load: NilExit
Load:
0.5%
if
redeemed
/
switched
out
within
6
months
from
the
date
of
allotment
New Fund Offer (NFO) Period 6th
April 2011 to 20th
April 2011
Re‐Opening Date (on or before) 3rd
May 2011
NFO Price `
10 per unit during NFO & at NAV based prices thereafter
Minimum Application Amount (for lump sum applications)
`
5,000 and in multiples of `
1 thereafter
Minimum Additional Purchase Amount `
100 and in multiples of `
1 thereafter
Options/ Sub Options Offered GrowthDividend: Quarterly & Half Yearly (Payout & Reinvestment)
Switch‐In Available during NFO period & on an ongoing basis
Sleep in Peace Option (SIP)*/ STP Available post NFO period
EasyCall Available post NFO period
*Refers to Systematic Investment Plan
Statutory Details and Risk FactorsStatutory Details: Axis Mutual Fund has been
established
as
a
Trust
under
the
Indian
Trusts
Act,
1882,
sponsored
by
Axis
Bank
Ltd.
(liability
restricted
to
Rs.
1
Lakh).
Trustee:
Axis
Mutual
Fund
Trustee
Ltd.
Investment
Manager:
Axis
Asset
Management Co. Ltd. (the AMC) Risk Factors: All Mutual funds and securities investments are subject to market risks and
there is no guarantee that the investment objective of the scheme will be achieved. The NAV of the units issued by the
Mutual Fund under the scheme can go up or down depending on various factors and forces affecting securities markets.
Past
performance
of
the
Sponsor,
its
affiliates/the
AMC/the
mutual
fund
or
its
schemes
does
not
indicate
the
future
performance of the scheme. The sponsor is not liable or responsible for any loss or shortfall resulting from the operation of
the
scheme.
Investments
in
the
scheme
are
subject
to
various
investment
risks
such
as
trading
volumes,
settlement
risk,
liquidity risk, default risk, risk of possible loss of principal, etc.
For detailed risk factors, please refer to the SID. Mutual Fund
Investments
are
subject
to
market
risks.
Please
read
the
Scheme
Information
Document
and
Statement
of
Additional
Information (SID & SAI) carefully before investing.
Axis Dynamic Bond Fund is only the name of
the
Scheme
and
does
not
in
any
manner
indicate
either
the
quality
of
the
Scheme, its future prospects and returns.
Investment
objective:
The
scheme
will
endeavor
to
generate
optimal
returns
while
maintaining
liquidity
through
active
management of a portfolio of debt and money market instruments.
Asset Allocation:
Debt instruments including GSecs
and corporate debt – 0 ‐
100%, Money market instruments – 0 ‐100%,
including securitized debt up to 30%, derivatives up to 75% and foreign securities up to 50% of the net assets Load:
Entry
load – not applicable, Exit load – 0.5% if redeemed/switched out within 6 months from date of allotment.
Terms of issue and sale and redemption of units:
Issue of Units of Rs. 10/‐
each for cash during the new fund offer and at
NAV based prices during the ongoing offer. The scheme offers sale and redemption facility on all business days during the
ongoing
offer.
The
NAV
of
the
scheme
would
be
calculated
for
all
business
days.
The
SID
&
SAI/
Key
Information
Memorandum
cum
Application
form
are
available
at
AMC
and
Registrar
offices
and
Investor
Service
Centres
/
AMC
web‐
site ‐
www.axismf.com / Distributors.
Thank you
Investment Process
Active Management
Quality Assets
Active portfolio management style; geared to exploit opportunities and ensure
that portfolios reflect the best investment opportunities at all
times
Focus on building a low credit risk portfolio with a continuous focus on the
liquidity of the portfolio
Discipline
Research Driven Investment decisions are driven by extensive macroeconomic and company
research
Investment decisions are an output of a logical and disciplined investment
process
Integrated Risk
Management Risk management is embedded in the investment process
Fundamentals Based Interest rate views are based on a multi‐factor process that combines the
medium term outlook with the short term outlook
Competitive We aspire to be in the top quartile measured on an annual basis
Investment Philosophy – Fixed Income
Investment Process – Fixed Income
Assessing Macro Environment
Portfolio Construction
Target Portfolio Duration
Portfolio Monitoring
Credit Analysis
Inte
grat
ed R
isk
Man
agem
ent
Target Investment Universe
Interest Rates Credit
Interest RatesEconomic
Fundamentals
Market Dynamics Market Trends
•
Global & Local Economic
Analysis
•
GDP Growth
•
Money Supply & Reserve
Money Growth
•
Deposit & Credit Growth
•
Inflation & Exp. Inflation
•
SLR maintenance of Banks
•
Fiscal Policy
•
System Liquidity
•
Technical Analysis
•
Political Environment
•
Real Money Flow
•
Statements from RBI,
Govt, global central banks
•
Event risk –
Interpretation
of outcomes/market
positioning ahead of the
event
•
INR View
•
Total market volumes
•
Security‐wise market
volume
•
Steepness of yield curve
•
Spreads between different
issuer classes
•
Global interest rates
Target Portfolio Duration
Credit Research
Investment Universe
Objective: Ensure high quality of portfolio through “In Depth Research & Monitoring” of Portfolio Companies
Sector Review
Company Financial Review (Annual & Quarterly)
External Research (rating agencies)
Regular interaction with Company Management
Liquidity Analysis
Risk Rating Scorecard
Risks Addressed: Default Risk, Downgrade Risk
Portfolio Construction
Fundamental &
Market Analysis
Credit Analysis
Fund Objectives
Analysis of Investor
Profile
Target
Portfolio
Duration
Investment
Universe
Risk
Philosophy
Portfolio
Liquidity
TargetSecurity Selectio
n
Portfolio
Con
struction
Portfolio Monitoring: Active Management
Existing Portfolio Current / New Portfolio
Take profits / Rebalance
portfolio
Fund Objective
Expected Market Movement
Credit Metrics
Peer Comparison
Liquidity
Inflows/Outflows