baiquni global warming 1992

8/19/2019 Baiquni Global Warming 1992

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TERM PAPER

Development Issue Assignment

GLOBAL WARMING :

SOME SCIENTIST SCENARIO DEBATES

M. Baiquni

Institute for Rural Technology Development

(Appropriate Technology Group)

Paper Presented in OTO Bappenas

Jakarta, 1992


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GLOBAL WARMING

Some Scientist Scenario Debates

By M. Baiquni

“From Stockholm to Rio de Janeiro, a road to save

our world. It is just only two decades that the

environmental issues were change. The environmental

issue in Stockholm conference (1972) was environmental

problems of human settlements, management of natural

resources and environmental pollutions. Now the

environmental issues are changing to be sound globally

concerns. One of the main issues in Rio de Janeiro

conference this month (1992) is global warming”.

Introduction

Global warming issues is broadly discussed and sharply

debated by many scientists. Some scientists researched many

trends evident that connected many data and cross-checked many

research over the world. Other scientists have simulated some

future scenarios that supported by up to date information from

satellite and computer technology.

Some climate theorists believe that we are already

entering a period of drastic alteration in the earth’s

climate, trigged by excessive carbon dioxide emission into the

air ……said Sherwood B. Idaho (dennis Senft, 1990).

Richard A. Houghton and George M. Woodwell supported this

idea that the world is warming. Climatic zone are shifting.

Glaciers are melting. Sea level is rising. These are not

hypothetical events from a science-fiction movie; “these change

and others are already taking place, and we expected them to

accelerate over the next years as the amounts of carbon

dioxide, methane and other trace gases accumulating in the

atmosphere through human activities increase”.

In contrast, two Indonesian professors, Otto Soemarwoto

and Herman Johannes have opinion that global warming is not

proof yet and some scientists still debating this issue.


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What is Global Warming?

Naturally, the earth is changing by it self through a long

time historical period since its occurrence. John A. Katili

(1990) stated that “our unique planet is a product of synergism

between the living and non-living parts. Hence, it is

significant to know that throughout the earth history which

spans about 4.5 billion years the global environment has been

changing”. So the earth is a dynamic matter that through its

time can makes changing to get its balance.

The earth has been an atmosphere; a kind of air covered

the earth with moderate temperature and many gases that

suitable for life. The atmosphere has function as natural

filter of sunlight rays that warms the earth. A path of

atmosphere is stratosphere that has a layer of ozone. The ozone

protests the earth by blocking most of the sun’s harmful

ultraviolet light.

According to john R. Justus, et all (1989), some of the

minor gasses in the atmosphere control the earth’s temperature

by a mechanism that operates much like a greenhouse. This

mechanism is incoming sunlight that warms the earth but is

opaque to the infrared radiation arising from the earth’s

surface and the lower atmosphere traps a portion of the heat

that would escape. So, this mechanism makes the earth surface

and lower atmosphere are mild.

The balance of greenhouse mechanism can be disturbed by

living and non-living activities. The example of non-living

activity as a volcanic activities and the living activity is

human life. The human life activities such as fossil, fuel

combustion, industrial chemical wastes, forest burning, caused

ozone degradation. Carbon dioxide (CO2), chlorofluorocarbon

(CFC), and chlorine monoxide (ClO), are blamed as the chief

agents of ozone destructions.


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According to Idso, some climate theorist believe that the

carbon dioxide, as the result of fuel burning, will trap the

sun’s heat in the atmosphere in much the same way that glass in

a greenhouse hold heat. In this case, the earth get warmer

(Dennis Senft, 1990).

Cause and Impact of Global Warming and Ozone Destruction

Global warming is cause by natural happen and human

activities. Natural happen is naturally occurring process of

gasses that influence to atmosphere balance. This naturally

changing can be neutralized by natural process of atmosphere.

Most of environmentalists are concern about human activities as

a cause of global warming.

The four of most important greenhouses gases whose

concentrations be produced by harm activities are carbon

dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, and the family of CFCs. Other

gases collectively contribute to global warming (John R.

Justus, et all, 1989). It so happens that chlorine and bromine,

in reactive forms, can also catalyze ozone breakdown (Roger

Beckmann, 1991).

Carbon dioxide is the chief cause of global warming, these

gases come from fuel combustion, forest fire, living organism

activities, etc. but CO2 is also essential for plant growth,

being one f the raw materials of photosynthesis. Naturally, it

is balance between CO2 in atmosphere and CO2 in biosphere

(vegetations, humans, animals, in the earth surface). This

balanced cycling of carbon was disturbed when human burned

large quantities of fossil fuels (coal and oil) and destructed

forest. Simultaneously, increasing human activity increased CO2

in atmosphere that contributed to trap sun heat.

In recent years investigators have recognized that the

atmospheric burden of greenhouse gases than carbon dioxide,

such as methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), and the


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chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), I s also growing at increasing rate

(Rhicard A. Hunghton and Goerge M. Woodwell. 1989).

Chlorine naturally occurs from the earth surface, mainly

from sea water, volcanic eruptions and rotting or burning

vegetation. According to Roger Beckman (1991), chlorine from

natural supply is now dwarfed by synthetic compounds, such as

the chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs). There are human being are

currently responsible for 80 % of stratosphere’s chlorine. As

well as CFCs, common industrial chemical such as carbon

tetrachloride and methyl chloroform contribute to the bud up of

unwanted stratospheric chlorine. Other compounds, termed

halons, contain ozone-destructive bromine.

Evident of ozone destruction is found a hole of ozone over

Antarctica in 1985. Based on Michael D. Lemonick (1992)

previous studies had already showed that ozone level here

declined 5 % to 8% over the northern hemisphere in the last

decade. But latest data imply that ozone layer over some

regions, including the northern paths of US, Canada, Europe,

and Russia, could be temporarily depleted in the late winter

and clearly spring by as much as 40%. That would be almost as

big as 50 % ozone loss recorded over Antarctica.

Common industrial chemical above are dangerous to

atmosphere balance. Some of those gases caused heat trapping

that caused global warming and other gases have destructed

ozone layer in stratosphere. Those phenomenon’s have dangerous

impacts to the environment. This picture figured some chemicals

of ozone formation and destruction (Source: Roger Beckmann,

1991).


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The impacts of global warming are dangerous for our life.

Mainly, global warming can produce climate change. Some

scientists predicted that changing can cause increasing

temperature-evaporation-rainfall, melting ice polar, and

shifting climatic zone.

Climate change can disturb many ecosystem balances. In

agricultural, many food productions could fail harvesting, some

crop diseases may be will increase. In addition, this changing

has impacts for natural resources, biological diversity, human

health and quality of life.

Flooding and increasing sea level re also the impacts of

climate change. According to Paul Handley (1992), some

scientists tried to simulate the effects in Southeast Asia. In

the next half century, primary consequence would be increasing


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average temperature by 3-4 degree Celsius and sea level by 1

meter. Some prediction impacts of these phenomenons are :

- Low lying rice, shrimp and fish farms along the coast

would be permanently inundated with sea water.

- Heavier rain would improve irrigation, but would also

greatly exacerbate erosion and soil leaching.

- Areas prone to flooding would be swamped more frequently

and more severely.

- Yields of many crops would fall.

- Hydroelectric dams would silt up more rapidly, reducing

their life spans.

Other hazards of global warming in connected with ozone

destruction, are very dangerous for living matter. Destructing

ozone by some gasses of greenhouse effects caused increasing

ultraviolet light, a harmful for human, to penetrate the earth

surface. According to Michael D. Lemonick (1992) the potential

effect of ultra violet light are: developing eyes cataract,

accelerating various forms of skin cancer, reducing immune

system of the body, reducing crop yields, and affecting to

growth of phytoplankton.


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Some scientist Scenario Debates on Global Warming

Global warming due to the accumulation of heat-trapping

gases, particularly carbon dioxide, has been debating among

scientists. They have a scenarios based on their views.

Stephen H. Schneider (1989) stated that as early as the

19th century it was recognized that carbon dioxide in the

atmosphere gives rise to a greenhouse effect. Some atmospheric

scientist have scenarios that in the future increasing the

concentration of CO2 and other gases will increase that heat

trapping and warm the climate. There is controversy among the

scientist “will the rising concentrations of greenhouse gases

rise the earth temperature by 1.5 or 8 degrees Celsius?, will

the increase take 50, 100, or 150 years?”.

Most of scientists fear about occurring global warming

that is caused by human activities. I consider dividing some

scientist opinions in to three scenarios.

The first scenario is optimistic opinions that the earth

is flexible matter to respond global warming. They argued that

carbon dioxide can be recycled by planting trees to reduce CO2

in the atmosphere. According to Roger Beckmann (1990), Dr.

Gifford and Dr. Barson examined the effectiveness of three

possible scenarios of deliberate tree-planting by mathematical

model. This mathematical means describing the uptake of carbon

into organic matter as time progresses. The speed of carbon up

taken and total stored both depend on the productivity of the

forest and this can vary considerably, being influenced by the

species of tree, soil fertility, and climate.

According to Dennis Senft (1990), Idso says that “while

the increase in carbon dioxide measurable and global warming

may occur sometime in the more distance future, I have come

across no evidence that the earth has already begun to warm.


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Our study plus a half dozen others, indicates that we have no

yet begun to feel global warming due to the greenhouse effect”.

Two Indonesian professors, Otto Soemarwoto and Herman Johannes

have opinion that underlined the scenario “global warming is

not proof yet and some scientists are still debating this

issue” (Cokrokusumo, 1992 and Kompas, 1992).

The second scenario is realistic opinions based on some

evident of global warming. They believe that the earth has

limitation to adapt they changing. If the human activities are

increasing, it will increased the global warming and changed

the climate. Some climate and atmosphere research showed that

the temperatures recorded in some areas were steeply increased.

Dennis Senft (1990) believed that the changing won’t be as

rapid or as severe as some sensational news report indicates.

He also argued “that some changes will even be for the better

than of the earth’s human population-like increased food

production”.

The third scenario is pessimistic views that global

warming will increasing sharply and destructing dangerously.

They have done some models to predict global warming. According

to John R. Justus, et all (1989), “many scientists are

projecting that increased concentrations of CO2 and other

greenhouse gases could lead to more adsorption of infrared

radiation by the atmosphere, forcing additional, global warming

with deleterious effects. Estimates of predicted global

warming, based current rates of greenhouse gases production

from human activities, very widely between 3 and 16 degrees

Fahrenheit by middle of twenty first century.

Some scientists tried to simulate that if average

temperatures increase by 3-4 degree Celsius, it will raised 1

meter sea level. This report regards as a possibility within

the next half century (Paul Hardley, 1992). Schneider believes,

that we are already in the first years of the greenhouse


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century and the planet is probably in store Fore some “nasty

surprises” and “catastrophic changes”. (Nicholas Lessen, 1989).

Conclusion : action Plans “ Think Globally, Act Locally”.

Since the ozone hole over Antarctica was confirmed in

1985, many worlds’ governments reached a usually rapid

consensus that action had to be taken. In 1987, they crafted

the landmark Montreal Protocol, which called for a 50 %

reduction of CFC production by 1999 (Michael D. Lemonick,

1992).

In the earth summit this month, an agenda of this meeting

is a treaty to head off global warming. This issue also be

connected with sustainable development. There is an “agenda 21”

that consist of an 800pages action plan for sustainable

development.

Most of mass media duplicated environmental concerns

especially global warming. They warn us to aware to save our

world. Many scientists have conducting many environmental

researches. Although, many scientists still have debating about

global warming phenomenon’s, we must to make actions rather

than waiting for evidence.

Schientist lays out three options for forestalling warming

: technological solutions, adaptations, and preventions. He

also believes that what makes economic and ecological sense now

anyway-improving energy efficiency, halting tropical

deforestation, and promoting reforestation, to name a few-will

slow warming (Nicholas Lenssen, 1989).

I think the best solution is preventions. Everybody must

takes a part in participations to preventions to prevent our

environment. We must act now, act locally will contribute a

result globally, to consume everything sufficiently. I am agree

with Schneider’s statement “ I wonder what we will say to our


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children when they eventually ask what we did-or didn’t do to

create the greenhouse century they will inherit”.

“ We did not inherit this earth from or parents, but have

borrowed it from our children” (originated from an Indian tribe

in America).


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REFFERENCES

Dennis Senft. 1990. “ Greenhouse effect may not be all bad”.

Agricultural Research, October : 20.

Emily T. Smith, 1992. “The road to Rio : Plenty of good

intentions, but….” Business Week, May 11, 1992:42.

John A Katily, 1990. “Earth science and problems of global

change” Pertambangan dan Energi in English magazine. No 4

Jhon R. Justus, et all. 1989. “Global warming : what is known

about it?. CRS Review : Congressional Research Service.

Kompas, 1992. “ Jangan terjebak menghadapi masalah pemanasan

global” Kompas newspaper.

Michael D. Lemonick, 1992. “ The ozone vanishes” Time, February

17 : 40

Nicolas Lessen, 1989. “ Warm enough?”. World Watch. November-

December : 33.

Paul Handley, 1992. “ before the flood, climate change may

seriously affect southeast Asia”. Far Eastern Economic

review. April 16; 65.

Richard A. Hougton and George M. Woodwell, 1989. Global

Climate Change”. Scientific America, April 1989, volume

260.

Roger Backmann, 1991 “ what’s happening to the ozone layer?”.

Ecos 69, spring: 6.

Stepehen H. Schneider, 1989. “ The changing climate”.

Scientific America. September : 38.

Tjokrokusumo, 1992. “Bumi dan Pemanasan Global”. Kompas

newspaper.

baiquni global warming 1992

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