barclays ceo energy-power conference - amazon web services · 2016-09-02 · barclays ceo...
TRANSCRIPT
September 6th, 2016
Barclays CEO Energy-Power Conference
Rick Muncrief, President and CEO
Market Overview
2
Oil Outlook
Gas Outlook
Geopolitical
Rock Quality
Oil market in balance with continued moderate demand growth
Abundant supply in North America creates limited upside
Global political risk remains high and extremely volatile
In current price environment, only operators with Tier 1 acreage positions will prosper
(MAY 2014 – MAY 2016)
Strategic Transformation of WPX
(2012)
(2016)
(2012)
(2016)
BIAS FOR ACTION AND A TRACK RECORD OF EXECUTION
3
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Oil Natural Gas
WPX Liquidity, Hedges and Debt Maturities
Cash and Equivalents @ (6/30/16) $1,031
Undrawn Revolver 1,025
Transport Buyout (239)
2017 Note Balance @ (6/30/16)3 (160)
Pro Forma Liquidity2 $1,657
Pro-Forma Debt Maturities
Senior Notes Senior Notes Senior NotesSenior Notes
Expect $1.2B OF
SALES PROCEEDS
IN 1H OF 2016
$1,485 UNDRAWN
$60.16
% o
f Pro
duct
ion
Hed
ged $3.93
1 Based on midpoint of guidance.2 Excludes acreage acquisition cost.3 Repurchased $35MM of 2017 notes in July
20161
$500
$1,100
$500 $500
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
$MM
STRONG HEDGE POSITION
Oil: 27,054 bbl/d Hedged
► $50.88 per barrel
Gas: 150,000 mmbtu/d
► $2.98 per MMBtu
~80% of oil production hedged
► $60.16 per barrel
Natural gas fully hedged
► $3.93 per MMBtu
2017
2016
1
Pro-Forma Liquidity2
Dollars listed in millions
STRONG LIQUIDITY
4
Executing Strategy and Delivering Sustainable Long-Term Value
OPERATIONAL
5
FINANCIAL VALUE ACCELERATION
GETTING BACK TO WORK
► Completing DUC’s in the Williston
► Adding rigs 3,4 and 5 in the Delaware
(Oct, Nov and Dec)
► Adding 2nd rig in the Williston in Oct.
► Stronger EUR’s and lower well costs
► Large inventory of short cash cycle
projects
► Disciplined capital allocation process
► Strong hedge position through 2017
► Net debt to EBITDAX ~2.5x YE 2018
► No incremental debt needed
► No change to 2016 capital guidance
► Oil CAGR 20% - 35% through 2020
► EBITDAX CAGR 20% - 35% through 2020
► Avg. well payout period 18-24 months1
► Funded with cash on hand and CFFO
1 Based on strip pricing as of August 26th, 2016.
6
San Juan Basin Overview
WILLISTON BASIN
HEADQUARTERS TULSA, OKSAN JUAN
BASIN
PERMIANBASIN
OIL NATURAL GAS
► ~226,000 net acres► Oil window: ~96,000 acres1
► Gas window: ~130,000 acres
► ~3,900 total gross locations2
► Oil window: ~4003
► Gas window: ~3,5002
► Commodity mix4
► Oil window► Oil: 52%
► NGLs: 19%
► Gas: 29%
► Gas window► Natural gas: 99%
► NGLs: 1%
► Available sales outlets► Oil: Local refining markets or rail
(WTI, Brent, LLS)
► Gas: Blanco Hub
1 Acreage owned or controlled by WPX 2 Includes non-op and operated locations3 Assumes 4,600' laterals4 Based on YE15 Production
Information based on YE 2015
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0 20 40 60 80 100 120CU
M M
BOE
NORMALIZED DAYS ON PRODUCTION
San Juan Basin – Delivering Strong Results
7
► WPX record 1.5-mile lateral $88 per ft.
► Wells showing better performance► Longer laterals
► Well Azimuth
► Landing and steering
► Larger fracs
► Strong initial performance on 6-well pad► Average 24HR IP: ~1,800 BOE
► Average lateral length: 7,250 ft.
► Average D&C cost: ~$4.1MM
San Juan Gallup Wells
SAN JUAN GALLUP HIGHLIGHTS
1 3-year strip pricing as of August 26,2016
CURRENT
650 MBOE6-WELL
PADGALLUP WELLS
2016 GUIDANCE
465 MBOE
500
600
700
800
900
$3.0 $3.5 $4.0 $4.5 $5.0
EUR,
MBO
E
Total Well Cost, $M
CURRENT
PRICE DECK1
$52.35/$3.05
CAPITAL/EUR SENSITIVITY CURVE
8
Williston Basin Overview
WILLISTON BASIN
HEADQUARTERS TULSA, OKSAN JUAN
BASIN
OIL NATURAL GAS
PERMIANBASIN
► ~85,000 net acres
► 575+ gross locations► ~510 operated locations
► ~70 non-op locations
► Commodity mix1
► 85% oil
► 8% natural gas
► 7% NGLs
► Available sales outlets► Clearbrook, Minn. (WTI)
► Guernsey, Wyo. (WTI)
► Local refining markets
► Rail to all coastal markets (Brent, LLS, WTI)
Information based on YE 20151 Based on YE15 Production
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240
CUM
MBO
E
NORMALIZED DAYS ON PRODUCTION
Williston- Wells Outperforming Type Curve, Getting Back to Work
9
WILLISTON BASIN HIGHLIGHTS► Recent results tracking above type curve
► No completions in 2Q’16
► Resumed completion of DUCS
► Average 3-4 per month
► Current inventory of 19 DUCS
► Adding 2nd rig in October
Mandaree and Emma Owner Pads
1,000 MBOECURRENT/VISION
850 MBOE
EMMA OWNER
PAD
MANDAREE
PAD2016 GUIDANCE
750 MBOE
1 3-year strip pricing as of August 26,2016
700
750
800
850
900
950
1,000
$4.5 $5.0 $5.5 $6.0 $6.5 $7.0
EUR,
MBO
E
Total Well Cost, $M
CURRENTVISION
PRICE DECK1
$52.35/$3.05
CAPITAL/EUR SENSITIVITY CURVE
10
Permian Basin Overview
HEADQUARTERS TULSA, OK
PERMIANBASIN
OIL NATURAL GAS
WILLISTON BASIN
SAN JUAN BASIN
1 Includes ~1,000 acres in Midland Basin2 Includes non-op and operated locations3 Based on ~YE15 Production
► 100,000+ net acres1
► 5,500+ gross locations2
► Commodity mix3
► 54% oil
► 29% natural gas
► 17% NGLs
► Available sales outlets► Holley Frontier’s Artesia, NM Refinery
► Western’s El Paso Refinery
► Gulf Coast
► Cushing
► Midland
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
CUM
MBO
E
NORMALIZED DAYS ON PRODUCTION
Delaware- Continuing Operational and Technical Momentum
11
DELAWARE BASIN HIGHLIGHTS► Net resource potential increased 100%+ to 2.4 BBOE
► Gross locations increased 50%+ to 5,500+
► Adding 3rd rig in Oct, 4th rig in Nov, and 5th rig in Dec.
► Wolfcamp D and X/Y wells underway
► Strong initial results from Wolfcamp D wells
► Testing larger completions and tighter cluster spacing
► Self-sourcing sand with direct access to mines
WOLFCAMP A WELLS1
CURRENT2
900 MBOE
WOLFCAMP A WELLS(AVG, LATERAL ~4,600’)
VISION WELL
1,000 MBOE
ACQUISITION
670 MBOE
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
$4.0 $4.5 $5.0 $5.5 $6.0 $6.5 $7.0
EUR,
MBO
E
Total Well Cost, $M
CAPITAL/EUR SENSITIVITY CURVE
PRICE DECK3
$52.35/$3.05
VISION
CURRENT
1 Includes wells from Haley, CBR, Robinson, Lindsay, Bunin, RDX, and Boyd pads2 Based on 4,880’ laterals3 3-year strip pricing as of August 26,2016
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
$1,800
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
12
WPX Poised for Rapid Sustainable Growth
CAGR: 35%HIGH CASE
ASSET QUALITY SUPPORTS RAPID OIL GROWTH
CAGR: 20%LOW CASE
ASSET QUALITY SUPPORTS RAPID EBITDAX GROWTH
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
LOW CASECURRENT CONSENSUS (FACTSET) HIGH CASEO
il % of total production
Assumes 2017 WTI $50Bbl /NYMEX $2.75Mcf and 2018-2020 WTI $55Bbl /NYMEX $3.00 Mcf.Note: Prior years adjusted to remove Piceance
CAGR: 35%HIGH CASE
CAGR: 20%LOW CASE
% OIL HIGH CASELOW CASE
► Growth funded with cash on hand and CFFO
► No incremental debt needed
OIL
MBB
L/D
13
Foundation in Place for Enhancing and Accelerating Value
PORTFOLIO REBALANCED
IN CORE BASINS
WORLD-CLASS ROCKIN DELAWARE AND WILLISTON BASINS
SIGNIFICANT UPSIDE
IN THE DELAWARE
STRONG BALANCE SHEET AND LIQUIDITY
REMAININGOPPORTUNISTIC
1 Includes non-op and operated locations2 Based on 1.5-mile laterals
DELAWARE BASIN100,000+ net acres
5,500+ gross locations1
2.4+ BBOE net resource potential
WILLISTON BASIN~85,000 net acres
575+ gross locations
Completing 15-20 DUCS by YE’16
SAN JUAN BASIN225,000+ net acres
3,900 gross locations1
Average drilling days: 7.72
WPX Non-GAAP Disclaimer
This presentation may include certain financial measures, including adjusted EBITDAX (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, depletion, amortization and exploration expenses), that are non-GAAP financial measures as defined under the rules of the Securities and Exchange Commission.
This presentation is accompanied by a reconciliation of these non-GAAP financial measures to their nearest GAAP financial measures. Management uses these financial measures because they are widely accepted financial indicators used by investors to compare a company’s performance. Management believes that these measures provide investors an enhanced perspective of the operating performance of the company and aid investor understanding. Management also believes that these non-GAAP measures provide useful information regarding our ability to meet future debt service, capital expenditures and working capital requirements. These non-GAAP financial measures should not be considered in isolation or as substitutes for a measure of performance prepared in accordance with United States generally accepted accounting principles.
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Disclaimer
The information contained in this summary has been prepared to assist you in making your own evaluation of the Company and does not purport to contain all of the information you may consider important in deciding whether to invest in shares of the Company’s common stock. In all cases, it is your obligation to conduct your own due diligence. All information contained herein, including any estimates or projections, is based upon information provided by the Company. Any estimates or projections with respect to future performance have been provided to assist you in your evaluation but should not be relied upon as an accurate representation of future results. No persons have been authorized to make any representations other than those contained in this summary, and if given or made, such representations should not be considered as authorized.
Certain statements, estimates and financial information contained in this summary constitute forward-looking statements or information. Such forward-looking statements or information involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual events or results to differ materially from the results implied or expressed in such forward-looking statements or information. While presented with numerical specificity, certain forward-looking statements or information are based (1) upon assumptions that are inherently subject to significant business, economic, regulatory, environmental, seasonal, competitive uncertainties, contingencies and risks including, without limitation, the ability to obtain debt and equity financings, capital costs, construction costs, well production performance, operating costs, commodity pricing, differentials, royalty structures, field upgrading technology, and other known and unknown risks, all of which are difficult to predict and many of which are beyond the Company's control, and (2) upon assumptions with respect to future business decisions that are subject to change.
There can be no assurance that the results implied or expressed in such forward-looking statements or information or the underlying assumptions will be realized and that actual results of operations or future events will not be materially different from the results implied or expressed in such forward-looking statements or information. Under no circumstances should the inclusion of the forward-looking statements or information be regarded as a representation, undertaking, warranty or prediction by the Company or any other person with respect to the accuracy thereof or the accuracy of the underlying assumptions, or that the Company will achieve or is likely to achieve any particular results. The forward-looking statements or information are made as of the date hereof and the Company disclaims any intent or obligation to update publicly or to revise any of the forward-looking statements or information, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. Recipients are cautioned that forward-looking statements or information are not guarantees of futureperformance and, accordingly, recipients are expressly cautioned not to put undue reliance on forward-looking statements or information due to the inherent uncertainty therein.
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Reserves Disclaimer
The SEC requires oil and gas companies, in filings made with the SEC, to disclose proved reserves, which are those quantities of oil and gas, which, by analysis of geoscience and engineering data, can be estimated with reasonable certainty to be economically producible – from a given date forward, from known reservoirs, under existing economic conditions, operating methods, and governmental regulations. The SEC permits the optional disclosure of probable and possible reserves. We have elected to use in this presentation “probable” reserves and “possible” reserves, excluding their valuation. The SEC defines “probable” reserves as “those additional reserves that are less certain to be recovered than proved reserves but which, together with proved reserves, are as likely as not to be recovered.” The SEC defines “possible” reserves as “those additional reserves that are less certain to be recovered than probable reserves.” The Company has applied these definitions in estimating probable and possible reserves. Statements of reserves are only estimates and may not correspond to the ultimate quantities of oil and gas recovered. Any reserve estimates provided in this presentation that are not specifically designated as being estimates of proved reserves may include estimated reserves not necessarily calculated in accordance with, or contemplated by, the SEC’s reserves reporting guidelines. Investors are urged to consider closely the disclosure regarding our business that may be accessed through the SEC’s website at www.sec.gov.
The SEC’s rules prohibit us from filing resource estimates. Our resource estimations include estimates of hydrocarbon quantities for (i) new areas for which we do not have sufficient information to date to classify as proved, probable or even possible reserves, (ii) other areas to take into account the low level of certainty of recovery of the resources and (iii) uneconomic proved, probable or possible reserves. Resource estimates do not take into account the certainty of resource recovery and are therefore not indicative of the expected future recovery and should not be relied upon. Resource estimates might never be recovered and are contingent on exploration success, technical improvements in drilling access, commerciality and other factors.
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