Join our Health Care Scenario Intensive, a training program specifically designed for the health care

industry on February 16–18, 2016 at IFTF’s Gallery for the Future in Palo Alto, California. In a world of

rapid and constant change, foresight is a core competency that turns managers into leaders and creates

organizations that are more resilient, more nimble, and more vibrant. Now, this specially-crafted training

can help you build this core competency and bring it into your own organization—or into the organizations

you work with.

B E C O M E A H E A LT H F U T U R I S TA L T E R N A T I V E S C E N A R I O S F O R H E A L T H & H E A L T H C A R E I N 2 0 2 6

WHAT TO EXPECT

This session will focus on crafting future scenarios for health and

health care. Scenarios take us into a possible future, describing a world

to come and making a systematic set of assumptions about the drivers

shaping that world.

We will use the classic set of Alternative Futures developed at the

University of Hawaii—four archetypal ways of envisioning the future—

to describe and consider potential futures of health and health care:

growth, collapse, constraint, and transformation.

Before arriving for the training program, you’ll complete a series of get-ready exercises on the theory and practice of fundamental futures thinking processes. Then, while on site at the Gallery for the Future, we’ll work together to construct alternative future scenarios for health and health care.

Upon completion of the training program, IFTF will award you a certificate of completion in Alternative Futures for Health Care. In addition to in-depth scenario tools, you will have access to a broader set of tools and techniques developed by IFTF, as well as new relationships with fellow trainees in foresight practice and our extended alumi network of emerging foresight practitioners across industries.

“The Foresight Practitioner Workshop equipped me with the tools and

resources needed to help my team engage with clients and partners in

advancing in our work in an evocative and practical way. The expertise of the

IFTF staff was exemplary throughout and connecting with thought leaders in other organizations was of tremendous

significance. It is truly one of the best three day professional investments I

have had in a very long time.”

—Sr. Manager, Learning Innovation and Technology,

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

The Alternative Futures methodology can help you and your organization consider

futures that are radically different from what you might assume today.

We believe the more people thinking about the future, the better. Whether you’re a

changemaker at a hospital, at a community center, or at your local school district, we want

to equip people across the health system with tools to make better informed decisions about

the future today. IFTF researchers will share forecasts on the future of health and well-being

and then offer training and guidance in the tools and methodologies used to craft scenarios

that explore the full range of future possibilities.

Back in 2008, IFTF’s Health Lab developed a set of alternative future scenarios for the health and health care industries. We looked across networks, markets, policy, and science and technology to map a new landscape of responses to health and health care challenges.

We’ve seen elements of all four scenarios—growth, collapse, constraint, and transformation—already come to pass. We once again find ourselves at a critical juncture to look ahead at the next decade of health and health care. New policy and regulations are shifting incentive structures and redefining care models; industries from food companies to technology firms are interested in moving the needle on health outcomes.

We’ll use IFTF’s Health Care 2020 scenarios as a starting point, and unpack the logic of creating plausible, internally consistent forecasts. Then as a group, we will work together to collectively write a new set of scenarios for the future of health and health care for the year 2025.

A LT E R N AT I V E S C E N A R I O S FO R H E A LT H & H E A LT H CA R E

THE WORKSHOP INCLUDES:

› Three days of in-person training conducted by IFTF staff Rod Falcon, Sarah Smith, Brad Kreit and affiliate Jake Dunagan, who studied under Jim Dator, creator of the Alternative Futures framework.

› Immersion in futures thinking skills, methodologies, and processes, with a focus on the Alternative Futures framework.

› Alternative Futures Scenario writing Toolkit and Facilitation Guide.

› Seminal readings on futures thinking and methodologies.

› Official certificate of completion for this IFTF Health Care Scenario Intensive training program.

› Meals during class sessions.

“I was struck by how much I learned from this course, as well as from the others attending. What stood out was the insight to use different tools for different situations by first looking at the need.

Having the rigor of a process while maintaining the freedom to create is a terrific model.

—Global Lead, Leadership Development, Cargill

W H AT A R E A LT E R N AT I V E F U T U R E S ?

Alternative futures scenarios illustrate that there is no such thing as “business as

usual.” Four archetypes—growth, constraint, collapse, and transformation—help us

think systematically about the truly disruptive potential of different futures through

plausable, internally consistent stories.

WHY THIS TOOL?

› ACKNOWLEDGE varying shapes of change, based on historical precedent.

› CREATE a systematic set of scenarios that serve as a “wind tunnel” for testing strategies under different future conditions.

› SEE beyond “preferred” futures to the range of “possible” futures.

› MAKE assumptions about the future explicit—and then challenge them.

A future that manifests as a result of current trends and conditions, extrapolated forward. Continued economic growth is the basis for the “official” view of the future held by most governments and organizations.

A future in which a core guiding value or purpose is used to organize society and control behavior. For example, if continued economic growth inevitably leads to collapse, then mandating changes to the system and putting limitations on certain kinds of human behavior (constraint) is a proposed solution. China’s one-child policy is an example of a constraint solution to population growth.

A future in which major social systems are strained beyond the breaking point, causing system collapse and social disarray. Human organization returns to meeting basic needs in order to rebuild. Global environmental collapse due to increased atmospheric and oceanic carbon dioxide levels is one example of collaspe.

A fundamental reorganization of a society that signals a beak from previous systems. The shift from nomadic hunter-gather societies to stable, hierarchical, agricultural societies was one of the most profound transformations in human history. Greater-than-human machine intelligence, and the revolution this would entail, is a popular transformation scenario today.

G R OW T H C O N S T R A I N T

C O L L A P S E T R A N S FO R M AT I O N

H E A LT H CA R E S C E N A R I O I N T E N S I V E

WO R K S H O P E X P E R I E N C E

Day 1 (Half Day)

› DISCOVER what kind of futures thinker you are

› MAP trends and signals of change

› MAKE SENSE of change through alternative futures

Day 2 (Full Day)

› LEARN practical skills from the foresight toolkit

› GENERATE your own alternative future scenarios

› COLLABORATE with your peers to refine scenarios

Day 3 (Half day)

› APPLY scenarios in strategic conversations

› LEARN how to communicate scenarios effectively

› CREATE a foresight capacity-building plan for your organization

ABOUT THE INSTITUTE FOR THE FUTURE

Institute for the Future is an independent, non-profit strategic research group with over 47 years of forecasting experience. For more than 30 years IFTF has brought futures thinking to health and health care. Our mission is to help organizations, communities, and individuals think systematically about the future. We pioneer tools and methods for building future foresight and insight to drive action today. IFTF is based in Palo Alto, California.

ABOUT IFTF’S FORESIGHT STUDIO

Institute for the Future’s Foresight Studio offers trainings in the nuts-and-bolts of futures methodologies and tools, built on a decades of futures work for corporations, governments, not-for-profit, and civic organizations. It is designed to help individuals and organizations grow their skills in the art and science of foresight—and to join a vibrant network of practitioners who can advance futures thinking in all kinds of organizations and communities around the globe. The Foresight Practitioner Workshop is open to individuals and teams who are ready and eager to establish or expand foresight in their organizations.

201 Hamilton Avenue, Palo Alto, CA 94301 650.854.6322 | www.iftf.org/foresightstudio | www.iftf.org/healthfutures

TO REGISTER, EMAIL OR CALL:

Dawn Alva dalva@iftf.org | 650-233-9585

Registration ends January 31 for February 16–18, 2016 session

R E G I S T R AT I O N A N D F E E S

Early bird registration (ends December 31) $6,000 per attendee or $4,000 per attendee for governmental and non-profit organizations.

Regular registration (ends January 31) $6,500 per attendee or $4,500 per attendee for governmental and non-profit organizations.

Assurant

BBB Wise Giving Alliance

Cox Enterprises

Eastman Chemical Co.

Fidelity

Fujitsu

Good World Solutions

Imperial College London

Kaiser Permanente

MultiCare Health Systems

Texas Children’s Hospital

PA R T I A L L I S T O F PA S T PA R T I C I PA N T S :