between seismology and seismic design · between seismology and seismic design prof. roberto...

Between Seismology and Seismic DesignProf. Roberto Paolucci

Dipartimento di Ingegneria Civile e Ambientale, Politecnico di Milano

Milano, 10 dicembre 2013

Roberto Paolucci

2Outline

Seismic hazard analysis for critical facilities SIGMA Project, 2012-2013, 90 k€

High-performance computing tools to produce physics-based earthquake ground shaking scenarios in large urban areas Contract PoliMi-MunichRE, 2012-2013, 150 k€

Guidelines for the seismic design of a gas pipeline in Central Italy Contract PoliMi - SNAM Rete Gas, 2013, 128 k€

Integrated seismic design and assessment of foundations and structuresDPC-Reluis Project, 2011-2013 90 k€

Perspectives for research in Engineering Seismology at Politecnico

Roberto Paolucci

3The Sigma Project

Objective

to reduce uncertainties in the different phases of the seismic hazard assessment (SHA) process, with specific care to long return periods of interest for critical industrial facilities.

Major topics

earthquake catalog assessment improved catalog of seismogenic faults from national to European strong motion databases quantification of uncertainties in the probabilistic SHA accounting for site effects in the PSHA

Italian partners: PoliMi, INGV, Università della Basilicata

Roberto Paolucci

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis: input

Seismogenic zones

4

Statistical analysis of earthquake catalogs within each zone

Empirical ground motion prediction equations

M

log N

N = Expected number of earthquakes per year with Magnitude > M

log N = a -bM

b ~ 1

Distance

log PGA

M2

M1

Roberto Paolucci

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis: output 5

Seismic hazard map of Italy

PGA values with 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years at rock sites (475 yrs return period)

Roberto Paolucci

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis: output 6

Roberto Paolucci

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis: objectives 7

(Macro) Seismic zonation

Seismic actions for design

Roberto Paolucci

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(1) Site-specific probabilistic hazard assessment in the Po plain area

The Sigma Project: contributions of PoliMi

Roberto Paolucci

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main steps:

updated earthquake catalog for improved characterization of the seismogenic sources and models of occurrence

application of different Ground Motion Prediction Equations and quantification of uncertainties through a logic tree approach

constrain seismic hazard at long return periods by numericalsimulations of rare (characteristic) events from seismogenicfaults


Roberto Paolucci

10


10-1 1000

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

T[s]

UH

SA

[g]

CAS site, RP 475 yr

AB11 (erg)AB11 (non-erg)Fea10 (erg)Fea10 (non-erg)Ita13 (erg)Ita13 (non-erg)Fea10 (erg) ROCKNTC2008 soil C

10-1 1000

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

T[s]

UH

SA

[g]

CAS site, RP 2475 yr

AB11 (erg)AB11 (non-erg)Fea10 (erg)Fea10 (non-erg)Ita13 (erg)Ita13 (non-erg)Fea10 (erg) ROCKNTC2008 soil C

10-1 1000

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

T[s]

UH

SA

[g]

CAS site, RP 10000 yr

AB11 (erg)AB11 (non-erg)Fea10 (erg)Fea10 (non-erg)Ita13 (erg)Ita13 (non-erg)Fea10 (erg) ROCK


Roberto Paolucci

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(2) Assessment of approaches to account for site effects in the PSHA


Roberto Paolucci

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(3) Numerical simulations of earthquake ground motion in the Po plain during the May-June 2012 seismic sequence


~ 8 km

Roberto Paolucci

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M5.9 20/05/2012

M5.8 29/05/2012

Mirandola

Roberto Paolucci

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May 29, 2012 (MW 6.0)

Roberto Paolucci

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Quaternary sediments (Po plain):

Quaternary sediments

Miocene formations

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

0.0001 0.001 0.01 0.1 1

Shear Strain (%)

G/G

max

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Dam

ping

Rat

io (%

)

Shear ModulusDamping Ratio

50015800

800300

)(

z

zVS

mzz

mzmz

zVP

5005001800

50015018001501500

)(

NLE soil behaviour in the top 150 m

5000725.02000

20001800

)(

z

z

mzzmz

mzzQS

500)500(03.08050015080

15030)(

3D subsoil model for the Po Plain

0 1000 2000 3000 4000-7000

-6000

-5000

-4000

-3000

-2000

-1000

0

VS (m/s)z

(m)

3D-basin3D-bedrock

Milana et al. (2013)

Roberto Paolucci

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SD Elements#

Nodes#

t(s)

Duration (s)

fmax(Hz)

Walltime(512 cores)

3 1’852’651 50’850’136 0.001 50 ~1.5 ~4.55 h

Numerical simulations in the FERMI supercomputer, CINECA

Roberto Paolucci

Verification: comparison with the DWM (Hisada’s code)

RAV0MRN SAN0

17

Roberto Paolucci

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seismic fault

top of Early Pliocene(Messiniano)

Quaternary sediments

6 km

2 km0

4 km

8 km

Mirandola

Roberto Paolucci

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Roberto Paolucci

20The PoliMi-MunichRE contract

Motivation (1)

Recent earthquakes in large urban and industrial areas caused major and unexpected losses for the reinsurance industry

8 costliest earthquake events worldwide

Roberto Paolucci


Motivation (2)

Empirical tools for ground motion prediction equations, that are not well constrained by records of real earthquakes, should be improved by synthetic ground motions based in numerical simulations

0.1 1 10 100Distance [km]

4

5

6

7

Mag

nitu

de

ITA10_MwITA10_MlRemoved data

available earthquake records in Italy

range of potential

damage to structures

Roberto Paolucci


Objective

to develop an open-source high-performance numerical code for seismic wave propagation analyses and to apply it for the generation of earthquake ground shaking scenarios in large urban areas

Roberto Paolucci


SPEED web sitehttp://mox.polimi.it/it/progetti/speed/SPEED/People.html

SPEED has been selected as one of the emerging applications with industrial relevance within the project PRACE-2IP WP 9.3 (2012-2013)

Roberto Paolucci


SPEED is an open-source code for the simulation ofseismic wave propagation in two- and three-dimensionalcomplex media.

SPEED is jointly developed by MOX (The Laboratory forModeling and Scientific Computing, Department ofMathematics) and DICA (Department of Civil andEnvironmental Engineering) at Politecnico di Milano.

SPEED is a discontinuous Galerkin spectral element codethat incorporates the open-source libraries METIS andMPI for the parallel computation (mesh partitioning andmessage passing). It has been designed with the aim ofsimulating large-scale seismic events, allowing theevaluation of the typically multi-scale wave propagationproblems in its complexity, from far-field to near-field andfrom near-field to soil-structure interaction effects .

Roberto Paolucci


The SPEED approach

Roberto Paolucci


Dynamic Soil Structure Interaction Traffic-induced vibrations

Seismic wave propagation in complex geological configurations

L’Aquila basin

SPEED potential applications

Roberto Paolucci


Roberto Paolucci

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~ 5 hours on FERMI using 512 cores

SANTIAGO DEL CILE

The PoliMi-MunichRE contract

Roberto Paolucci


Web repository of earthquake ground shaking scenarios

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Volume: ~ 50x80x45 kmSEs: ~ 350,000 hexahedra (~200,000 SEs in the basin)

non-conforming meshing strategy

The PoliMi-MunichRE contract

Work in progress: Wellington, New Zealand

Roberto Paolucci


Work in progress: Wellington, New Zealand

Roberto Paolucci

32The contract PoliMi – SNAM Rete gas

Objective

to prepare guidelines for the seismic design of the Sulmona-Foligno gas pipeline .

Major topics

overview of technical norms and guidelines in-field investigations (→ Zanzi, Lualdi) seismic input (→ Paolucci) seismic analysis under transient ground deformation,

including dynamic soil-structure interaction(→ Perotti, Martinelli)

seismic analysis under permanent ground deformation, including slope-stability, liquefaction, fault rupture (→ di Prisco, Pergalani, Mariani)

Roberto Paolucci


Roberto Paolucci


expected earthquake induced slope displacements along the pipeline (Pergalani & Compagnoni)

Roberto Paolucci


pipeline subjected to strike-slip fault rupture with increasing fault offsets

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Software for the design spectrum-compatible selection of real accelerograms(in cooperation with Università Federico II, Napoli)

Site definition andreference

structural codeselection (Italian,

European, or S5).

Limit statedefinition forcode-based

spectrumconstruction,or be

user definedspectrum input.

Target spectrumand compatibility

bounds.

Definition ofrange of periodswhere theaverage of the sethas to match thetarget spectrumand matchingtolerances.

Selection ofsearch for one setonly or formultiple sets, andsearch for originalor amplitude-scaled records.

Choice of setsize: one, sevenor thirty muti-componentrecords.

Choice of how many horizontal components should have each record in the set.

Definition of binsof interest in

terms of source,intensity, and site

parmeters.

Output management and secondary options

The project DPC-RELUIS

Roberto Paolucci

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Integrated seismic design and assessment of foundations and structures


Experimental results

Roberto Paolucci

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Numerical simulations by a non-linear macro-element model of the foundation

Roberto Paolucci

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Recent Publications

Paolucci R., Figini R., Petrini L. “Introducing dynamic non-linear soilfoundation-structure interaction effects in displacement-based seismicdesign. Earthquake Spectra, 29: 475–496, 2013

Ni P., Petrini L., Paolucci R. “Direct displacement-based assessment with nonlinear soil–structure interaction for multi-span reinforced concrete bridges”. Structure and Infrastructure Engineering, in press, 2013.

Pecker A., Paolucci R., Chatzigogos C., Correia A., Figini R. “The role of non-linear dynamic soil-foundation interaction on the seismic responseof structures”. Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering, DOI 10.1007/s10518-013-9457-0, 2013.

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