beveridge curves - cumberbeveridge curves covid spike, august 2020 david r. kotok chairman of the...

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®. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission.

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Beveridge CurvesCovid Spike, August 2020

David R. KotokChairman of the Board & Chief Investment Officer

[email protected]

(800) 257-7013 Ext. 320

mailto:[email protected]



U-3 Unemployment Rate &

Employment Population Ratio Divergence

2Source: Bloomberg

50

52

54

56

58

60

62

64

660

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Expansion

Recession

Expansion

U-3 Unemployment

Employment

Population Ratio

Covid

Spike



U-3 Unemployment Rate

3Source: Bloomberg

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

Jo

b V

acan

cy

Rate


Dec '01 - Nov '07 Dec '07 - Jun '09 Jul '09 - Mar '20 Mar '20 - Jul '20

Gap Surpassed

Covid Spike


®. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. 4

Source: Bloomberg

100.00

1,100.00

2,100.00

3,100.00

4,100.00

5,100.00

6,100.00

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

Jo

ble

ss C

laim

s4 w

ee

k m

ov

ing

av

g(T

ho

us

an

ds

)


Dec '01 - Nov '07 Dec '07 - Jun '09 Jul '09 - Mar '20 Mar '20 - Aug '20

Covid Spike

U-3 Unemployment RateJobless Claims 4 week moving avg



Source: Bloomberg

U-3 Unemployment RateAverage Hourly Wage Growth YoY%

0.5%

1.5%

2.5%

3.5%

4.5%

5.5%

6.5%

7.5%

8.5%

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

Av

era

ge

Ho

url

y E

arn

ing

sY

oY

% G

row

th



Gap Closing




6Source: Bloomberg

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25

Jo

b V

acan

cy

Rate



Gap Surpassed

Covid Spike



Source: Bloomberg

U-6 Unemployment RateJobless Claims 4 week moving avg

100.00

1,100.00

2,100.00

3,100.00

4,100.00

5,100.00

6,100.00

7,100.00

8,100.00

5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25

Jo

ble

ss C

laim

s4 w

ee

k m

ov

ing

av

g(T

ho

us

an

ds

)



Recession

Covid Spike



Source: Bloomberg


0.5%

1.5%

2.5%

3.5%

4.5%

5.5%

6.5%

7.5%

8.5%

6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26

Av

era

ge

Ho

url

y E

arn

ing

sY

oY

% G

row

th



GapClosing

Covid Spike



Employment Population Ratio

9Source: Bloomberg

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

50.00 52.00 54.00 56.00 58.00 60.00 62.00 64.00 66.00

Jo

b V

acan

cy

Rate



Covid Spike



Source: Bloomberg

Employment Population RatioJobless Claims 4 week moving avg

-

1,000.00

2,000.00

3,000.00

4,000.00

5,000.00

6,000.00

50.00 52.00 54.00 56.00 58.00 60.00 62.00 64.00

Jo

ble

ss C

laim

s4 w

ee

k m

ov

ing

av

g(T

ho

us

an

ds

)



Ex

pa

nsio

n

Gap to Close

Covid Spike



Source: Bloomberg

Employment Population RatioAverage Hourly Wage Growth YoY%

0.5%

1.5%

2.5%

3.5%

4.5%

5.5%

6.5%

7.5%

8.5%

505254565860626466

Av

era

ge

Ho

url

y E

arn

ing

sY

oY

% G

row

th



Covid Spike



Unemployment RateMarried Men with Spouse Present

12Source: Bloomberg

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Jo

b V

acan

cy

Rate

Unemployment Rate for Married Men with Spouse Present


Gap Surpassed

Covid Spike




Men 16+

13Source: Bloomberg

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

55575961636567697173

Jo

b V

acan

cy

Rate

Employment Population RatioMen 16+




Unemployment RateMothers Maintaining Families

14Source: Bloomberg

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18

Jo

b V

acan

cy

Rate

Unemployment Rate for Mothers Who Maintain Families


Gap Surpassed

Covid Spike



Employment Population RatioWomen 16+

15Source: Bloomberg

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

4446485052545658

Jo

b V

acan

cy

Rate

Employment Population RatioWomen 16+




Unemployment RateCollege Graduates

16Source: Bloomberg

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Jo

b V

acan

cy

Rate

Unemployment Rate for College Graduates


Gap to Close



Employment Population RatioCollege Graduates

17Source: Bloomberg

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

6466687072747678

Jo

b V

acan

cy

Rate

Employment Population RatioCollege Graduates




Source: Bloomberg, Economic Policy Institute

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

2 4 6 8 10 12 14

Jo

b V

acan

cy

Rate

"Prime Age" 25 - 54Unemployment Rate


Gap Surpassed

Covid Spike

Unemployment“Prime Age” 25 - 54



Source: Bloomberg, Economic Policy Institute

Employment Population Ratio“Prime Age” 25 - 54

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

6870727476788082

Jo

b V

acan

cy

Rate

"Prime Age" 25 - 54Employment Population Ratio


Gap Surpassed

Covid Spike



65 & Older Underemployment Rate

20Source: Bloomberg, Economic Policy Institute

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Jo

b V

acan

cy

Rate

Unemployment Rate for Married Men with Spouse Present


Gap Surpassed

Covid Spike



New Hires

21Source: Bloomberg

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

2.533.544.555.56

Jo

b V

acan

cy

Rate

New Hires


Gap Surpassed

Covid Spike



Quits Rate

22Source: Bloomberg

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

1.11.31.51.71.92.12.32.5

Jo

b V

acan

cy

Rate

Quits Rate


Gap Surpassed



Layoffs and Discharges

23Source: Bloomberg

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Jo

b V

acan

cy

Rate

Layoffs and Discharges


Gap Surpassed

Covid Spike



Quit – Layoff Spread

24Source: Bloomberg

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

-7-6-5-4-3-2-1012

Jo

b V

acan

cy

Rate

Quit - Layoff Spread


GapSurpassed

Covid Spike



Part Time for Economic Reasons

25Source: Bloomberg

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

3.6 4.6 5.6 6.6 7.6 8.6 9.6 10.6 11.6 12.6

Jo

b V

acan

cy

Rate

Part Time For Economic Reasons

(Millions)




U-7 UnemploymentU-7 Unemployment is the spread of U-6 minus U-5 unemployment

26Source: Bloomberg

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Jo

b V

acan

cy

Rate



Gap Surpassed



Source: Bloomberg


0.5%

1.5%

2.5%

3.5%

4.5%

5.5%

6.5%

7.5%

8.5%

2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Av

era

ge

Ho

url

y E

arn

ing

sY

oY

% G

row

th



Covid Spike



Black Employment Population Ratio

28Source: Bloomberg

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

454749515355575961

Jo

b V

acan

cy

Rate

Black Employment Population Ratio


Gap Surpassed



Hispanic Employment Population Ratio

29Source: Bloomberg

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

50525456586062646668

Jo

b V

acan

cy

Rate

Hispanic Employment Population Ratio


Gap to Close

Covid Spike



White Employment Population Ratio

30Source: Bloomberg

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

505254565860626466

Jo

b V

acan

cy

Rate

White Employment Population Ratio




Disclosure

All material presented is compiled from sources believed to be reliable. However, accuracy

cannot be guaranteed. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All investments

involve risk including loss of principal. Fixed income investments are subject to interest rate

and credit risk.

31

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