big consumer trends, the london market and how to utilise ... · branding & identity &...

© Kantar Worldpanel

1

Big Consumer Trends, the London market and

how to utilise shopper panel and usage data


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AGENDA

˃ WHO ARE KANTAR WORLDPANEL?

˃ HOW WE COLLECT OUR DATA

˃ PURCHASE

˃ CONSUMPTION

˃ HOW COMPANIES USE OUR DATA

˃ A REAL LIFE CASE STUDY

˃ CHANGING SHOPPING HABITS, FACT OR FICTION?

˃ CONVENIENCE SHOPPING

˃ DISCOUNTERS

˃ ONLINE

˃ THE LONDON MARKET


3

AGENDA

˃ WHO ARE KANTAR WORLDPANEL?

˃ HOW WE COLLECT OUR DATA

˃ PURCHASE

˃ CONSUMPTION

KANTAR is the information, insight and

consultancy businesses of WPP

Kantar & WPP

Advertising & Media

Public Relations

Branding & Identity & Specialist

Communications

The Kantar Group – Information,

Insight & Consultancy

The largest shopper panel in Great Britain

Geographically and demographically

representative of the population of GB

Methodology

30,000 Households in GB

HOW does Worldpanel work?

Methodology

Take home purchases

scanned by palm pilot and

clicker technology

Data retrieved automatically

via modem and collated into

databases on a 4 weekly

cycle

Clients receive databases,

reports and presentations

and work with client

service teams to uncover

commercial insights

Questions

Some of key questions Kantar Worldpanel can answer on your markets

How are my markets performing?

What is driving the sector?

More Shoppers or Shoppers

buying more/more often?

Are there opportunities

to attract new shoppers?

How can I increase

my market share?

What retailers are my shoppers

shopping in?

How are our competitors performing?

Private Label or Branded?

Identify &

quantify opportunities

10


10,000

individuals

WHAT IS THE USAGE PANEL?

From 4000 HH subset of

Purchase panel

Demographically representative of

GB population

Linked to Purchase panel

11


Usage panellists record consumption for a one week

period once a quarter

Food & drink consumption is recorded for every member of the household and all guests

Consumption is recorded by time of day and meal occasion

as defined by the user

WHAT DO PANELLISTS DO?

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SKU level capture to

help drive incremental

growth within a range

Based on the needs

and occasions

of your consumers

BRAND

IDENTITY

Usage can support decision making related to…

NPD

CROSS

CATEGORY

MARKETING

PACKAGING

PRODUCT SIZE

MACRO

ISSUES

How big is the

opportunity in your

categories?

What dishes offer the

biggest

opportunity?

What are the trends

for convenience vs.

scratch cooking?

How is health being

affected?

What communication

should be featured on

pack and in store?

OWN LABEL FIXTURE

LAYOUT

How can your retail

partner be more

competitive?

Position products by

their usage to

improve the shopping

experience

WHAT QUESTIONS CAN USAGE ANSWER?


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AGENDA

˃ HOW COMPANIES USE OUR DATA

˃ A REAL LIFE CASE STUDY

… and where they wanted to be!

Where Brand X drinks were …

How we do it?

BRAND X is a branded, ambient juice drink

and one of our big successes

How we do it?

Why does Sainsbury’s need Brand X?

What are the benefits?

How we do it?

Retailer shares of soft drinks vs. ambient juice drinks

Sainsbury’s under-trades in the ambient juice drinks

26 29

16 14

14 12

12 14

7 4

5 8

4 7

15 13

Soft Drinks Ambient Juice Drinks

Spend %

110

85

86

113

53

167

182

87

Index

COOP Group

Discounters

Tesco

Sainsbury’s

ASDA

Morrisons

Waitrose

All Others

Data to 52 w/e 8th August 10, Universe: Branded Soft Drinks vs. Branded Ambient Juice Drinks.

How we do it?

What’s in it for Sainsbury’s?

£1.8m Opportunity

How we do it?

Impressively 75% of Brand X’s growth is incremental to the category,

primarily due to existing shoppers adding the brand to their repertoire.

0 100 200 300 400 500 600

Switching

Shoppers Held

Shoppers Won

Category Arrivals

Net Spend (£000s) change

Category

Level

Changes

Universe: Total Ambient Juice Drinks

Source of BRAND X Spend (£000s) Change – Year Ending 08 August

Switching

Shoppers Held

Shoppers Won

Category Arrivals

How we do it?

Who is the BRAND X shopper?

What gap will the

Brand X shopper

fill at Sainsbury’s?

Brand X fills a gap in Sainsbury’s current range

Demographic Spend Profile of ambient juice drinks brands

Social class vs. housewife age

How we do it?

Universe: Ambient Juice Drinks index vs. Total Soft Drinks

Total Soft Drinks

Ambient Juice Based Drinks

Brand P

Brand Y

Brand M

Brand N

Brand C

Brand X

Brand G

Brand Z

Brand L

Brand O

Brand D

Brand F

Brand H

Brand B

Brand K

Own Label

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70

% o

f H

ousew

ives A

ged U

nder

45

% of Class ABC1 52 we 8 August 2010

Brand A

JS Total Grocery

AJD JS

Young & Mass Market Young & Upmarket

Old & Mass Market Old & Upmarket

How we do it?

Which brands will Brand X replace?

How we do it?

Contribution of ambient juice drink SKU’s to Sainsbury’s

90% of value sales come from 44% of products – for targeted delist

arguments the remaining 56% of products can be considered

Universe: Sainsbury’s

£0

£5,000

£10,000

£15,000

£20,000

£25,000

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73

Cum

ula

tive V

alu

e S

ale

s

Number of Products

Tota

l Num

ber o

f Pro

ducts

= 7

5

Total Ambient Juice Drinks in Sainsbury’s = £20.0m

90% = £18m

Pro

du

cts

= 3

3

How we do it?

Which products can be targeted for de-listing?

Brands A, B & C

in decline at

Sainsbury’s –

SKUs redundant £3m Brand X deal


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AGENDA

˃ CHANGING SHOPPING HABITS, FACT OR FICTION?

˃ CONVENIENCE SHOPPING

˃ DISCOUNTERS

˃ ONLINE

˃ THE LONDON MARKET


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THE RISE OF THE CONVENIENCE TRIP; FACT OR FICTION?

2009

Main

shop

13.1 days

Top up

shop

1.6 days

Top up

shop

1.6 days

Main

shop

13.0 days

2014

256 trips 256 trips


29

-4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0

% spend growth

-2.3 High street

10.5 Discounters

13.6 Internet

-0.2 Convenience

-1.5 Supermarket

0.7 TOTAL MARKET

% spend growth

RT43 (Grocery). KWP 2015 01. 12 w/e 01 Feb 15

CHANNEL GROWTH

The proliferation in supermarket ‘convenience’ stores has been offset by the

decline in independently owned outlets


30

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

16-O

ct-1

1

13-N

ov-

11

11-D

ec-

11

08-J

an-1

2

05-F

eb-1

2

04-M

ar-1

2

01-A

pr-1

2

29-A

pr-1

2

27-M

ay-1

2

24-J

un-1

2

22-J

ul-1

2

19-A

ug-1

2

16-S

ep-1

2

14-O

ct-1

2

11-N

ov-

12

09-D

ec-

12

06-J

an-1

3

03-F

eb-1

3

03-M

ar-1

3

31-M

ar-1

3

28-A

pr-1

3

26-M

ay-1

3

23-J

un-1

3

21-J

ul-1

3

18-A

ug-1

3

15-S

ep-1

3

13-O

ct-1

3

10-N

ov-

13

08-D

ec-

13

05-J

an-1

4

02-F

eb-1

4

02-M

ar-1

4

30-M

ar-1

4

27-A

pr-1

4

25-M

ay-1

4

22-J

un-1

4

20-J

ul-1

4

17-A

ug-1

4

14-S

ep-1

4

12-O

ct-1

4

09-N

ov-

14

07-D

ec-

14

04-J

an-1

5

01-F

eb-1

5

01-M

ar-1

5

12 w/e Periods

Independents Year-on-Year Trends - Till Roll £%

CORNER STORES & SYMBOLS UNDER PRESSURE

Independents 12we Year-on-Year Trends - Till Roll £%


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40.9 40.5 39.9 39.5 39.7 38.8

59.1 59.5 60.1 60.5 60.3 61.2

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

Main shop

Top up

2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009

% spend

% of spend by mission type

TOP UP MISSIONS ARE GAINING GROUND, BUT SLOWLY

RT43 (Grocery). KWP 2014 P08. 52we 17 Aug 2014


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Small trips get bigger Big trips get smaller

More top up shops in:

Supermarkets £14

Discounters £8

Online £54

vs

Convenience £6

Main shops decreasing:

Price war in supermarkets

Widening online appeal

11% of main shops in

discounters

RT43 (Grocery). KWP 2014 P09. 52we 14 Sep 2014


33

THE RISE OF THE DISCOUNTERS


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Source: Kantar Worldpanel; GB; Spend YoY; Grocery (RST); Hard Discounters = Aldi & Lidl’ 12 w/e data to 1st February 2015

18%

-0.9%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

28

Ap

r 1

3

26

May

13

23

Ju

n 1

3

21

Ju

l 13

18

Au

g 1

3

15

Sep

13

13

Oct

13

10

No

v 1

3

08

Dec

13

05

Jan

14

02

Feb

14

02

Mar

14

30

Mar

14

27

Ap

r 1

4

25

May

14

22

Ju

n 1

4

20

Ju

l 14

17

Au

g 1

4

14

Sep

14

12

Oct

14

09

No

v 1

4

07

Dec

14

04

Jan

15

01

Feb

15

Val

ue

% C

han

ge Y

oY

Total Hard Discounters & Big 4 – Value YoY% Change - GB

Hard Discounters Big 4

Inevitable that Big 4 losses

to Discounters will continue

this year:

Here’s some reasons

why…

+70 new stores openings in

2015

Biggest ever stores driving

increase basket size and

main shop

Existing store refurbishment

New Distribution centres in

Barnsley and Cardiff

DISCOUNTER GROWTH SIGNIFICANTLY OUTPACES BIG 4 Discounters are now annualising on very strong number in 2014


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Till Roll - Demographic Map - Spend Profile %

Farmfoods

Aldi

Lidl

M & S

Independents Co-operative

IcelandMorrisons

Waitrose

Asda

Tesco

Sainsbury's

Total Grocers

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80

% of Class ABC1

% o

f H

ou

se

wiv

es A

ge

d U

nd

er

45

12 w/e Mar 01 2015

ALDI & LIDL SHOPPERS ARE NOW MORE AFFLUENT THAN EITHER

ASDA OR MORRISONS

Younger & Less Affluent

Older & Less Affluent

Younger & More Affluent

Older & More Affluent


36

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

MM J J A S O N D J F MAMM J J A S O N D J F MA AM J J A S O N D J F MMAM J J A S O N D J F MMAM J J A S O N D J F

2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010

Total Morrisons

Total Hard

Discounters

Total Sainsbury's

Total Asda

Total Tesco

Penetration %

Nearly as many people visit Aldi/Lidl in 12we as visit Sainsbury’s

12WE PENETRATION

Till Roll. KWP 2015 01. 12we 01 Feb 2015


37

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Jan 15

Jan 14

Jan 13

Lidl Aldi Iceland M&S Waitrose Co-op Morrisons JS Asda Tesco

£ Spend Per Trip

Both Discounters have persuaded us to put more in our baskets

AVERAGE TRIP SPEND

RT43 (Grocery). KWP 2014 13. 52 w/e 04 Jan 15

+26%

+17%


38

260

310

360

410

460

510

560

58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71

Spend £

% of Households

Hard Discounters - Shoppers vs. Spend

53 x 52 weekly periods ending Mar 01 2015

AVERAGE TRIP SPEND

Both Discounters have persuaded us to put more in our baskets

Aldi £400

Lidl £310


39

Discounters are actually more reliant on fresh/chilled products than the Big 4

PURCHASE PROFILE OF SUPERMARKETS VS DISCOUNTERS

52we 01 March 2015

12 12

29 29

41 46

5 6 8 6

1 0

5 2

Big 4 Discounters

Alcohol Ambient Groceries Fresh+Chilled Frozen

Healthcare Household Toiletries

Spend Split by Area of Store, 52we 01 March 2015 £%


40

WHERE NEXT FOR ONLINE?


41

1616

1617 17

1617

18

21

2222

2019

1920

2019

1819

20 20

17

15 15

13 13

31-Mar-13

28-Apr-13

26-May-13

23-Jun-13

21-Jul-13

18-Aug-13

15-Sep-13

13-Oct-13

10-Nov-13

08-Dec-13

05-Jan-14

02-Feb-14

02-Mar-14

30-Mar-14

27-Apr-14

25-May-14

22-Jun-14

20-Jul-14

17-Aug-14

14-Sep-14

12-Oct-14

09-Nov-14

07-Dec-14

04-Jan-15

01-Feb-15

01-Mar-15

Total Internet Grocery - Rolling 12 w/e growth

12we Online sales growth £%

ALTHOUGH SLOWING, ONLINE STILL OUTPERFORMS THE MARKET


Total Internet Demographic SignaturesOutlet Share within Demographic Group - 52 w/e Mar

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Class AB Class C1 Class C2 Class D Class E

2013 2014 2015

Social Class

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Age under28

Age 28-34 Age 35-44 Age 45-64 Age 65+

2013 2014 2015

Housewife Age

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1 in HH 2 in HH 3 in HH 4 in HH 5+ in HH

2013 2014 2015

Household Size

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

No Children 1 Child HH 2 Child HH 3+ Child HH

2013 2014 2015

No. of Children

42

AGE IS A KEY FACTOR IN DETERMINING ENGAGEMENT


43

Tesco launched £1 delivery slots and new £25 minimum

spend in April 2014

Since then they’ve gained

+376k more shoppers vs

more than double the closest rival Asda with +154k

(40 w/e Feb vs YA)

Online Grocery Penetration % | 4 w/e rolling

Source: Kantar Worldpanel; GB; Penetration; Grocery (RST); 4 w/e data to 1st February 2015

£1 delivery

Waitrose

Internet

Ocado

Internet

Sainsbury's

Internet

Asda

Internet

Tesco

Internet

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

M A A M J J A S O N D J F MM A M J J A S O N D J F MM A M J J A S O N D J F

2015 2014 2013

£1 DELIVERY SLOTS DRIVE TESCO’S PENETRATION INCREASES


44

42 40

27 26

24

17 17

35

15 17

42

Total Market Big 4 Superstores + Waitrose Online

Up to £30 Between £30 - £60 Between £60 - £90 £90+

Spend Split by Basket Size, 52we 01 March 2015 £%

42% OF SPEND IS GENERATED BY TRIPS ONLINES DOESN’T

PLAY IN


45

LONDON


46

0.6

2.6

1.1

-0.3

-0.7 -0.9

0.5 0.6

-1.1

0.1

1.8

London

20% of £

LONDON DRIVES GROWTH AND IS THE MOST IMPORTANT AREA

OF GB IN TERMS OF SHARE OF TRADE

Growth by Region, 52we 01 March 2015 £%


48

4,154

4,597

4,3854,305 4,300

4,198 4,1644,024

3,9233,835 3,806

To

tal G

B

So

uth

So

uth

we

st

Ea

st

Lo

nd

on

Wale

s+

We

st

Scotland

Mid

lands

Yo

rkshire

No

rth

Ea

st

La

nca

sh

ire

Annual Household Grocery Spend by Region

52 w/e 01 Mar 15

ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD GROCERY SPEND BY REGION

AWP£ by Region, 52we 01 March 2015 £%


49

18.67

20.92

19.7919.43 19.25

18.64 18.53 18.5018.08

17.3917.01

To

tal G

B

Ea

st

So

uth

So

uth

we

st

Wale

s+

We

st

Mid

lands

Lo

nd

on

Yo

rkshire

La

nca

sh

ire

No

rth

Ea

st

Scotland

Shopping Basket Size by Region

52 w/e 01 Mar 15

SHOPPING BASKET BY REGION

Basket Spend £ by Region, 52we 01 March 2015 £%


50

26 27

14 10

15 23

11 6

5 3

2 2

5 9

4 2 3 3 2 1 3 4

Total London

All Others

Marks & Spencer

Bargain Stores

Lidl

Aldi

Waitrose

Iceland

Co-Operative

Morrisons

Sainsbury's

Asda

Tesco

Store Share £% by Region, 52we 01 March 2015

Both Sainsbury’s and Waitrose overtrade in London at the expense of

Asda and Morrisons which both undertrade


51

113 114

97 97

111

99

77

109

90 91 95

97 94

98

73

99 98

116

133

127

London indexes, , 52we 01 March 2015

Londoners are more likely to buy into Veg, Fruit, Chilled Ready Meals

and Poultry than the average, whilst being less inclined to purchase

alcohol.

© Kantar Worldpanel © Kantar Worldpanel

52

WHAT TO EXPECT IN 2015 Retail, confidence and the economy

Economic conditions remain

challenging, and consumer

sentiment will remain pessimistic

driven further by uncertainty in the

run-up to the election. Hard to

predict what will happen after that!

We won’t fundamentally change the

way we eat or shop in 12 months –

think evolution rather than revolution.

Shoppers will buy less

despite virtually zero inflation

in the market – meanwhile

trade down is less about

product choice and more

about retailer choice as

competition remains fierce.

Discounters, Bargain Stores

will continue to thrive – which

will continue to put pressure on

the established retail players.

Online expansion to continue – relevant to an

ever-growing audience, increasingly about

handheld devices with retailer emphasis towards

click & collect. Potential impact on retailer

strategy within their large store formats?

Amazon remain the one to watch.

Some of recent volume

decline may also be due to

consumers eating out more –

trend to eating out is likely

to follow changes in

consumer confidence in

2015 and so this should be

monitored closely.

Increased focus on transparency

from the retailers – this to

encompass promotional strategy but

also other retailer practices, including

supplier fees.

This will drive more price wars

and hence deflation well into

H2. As a USP, Fuel will be a

key lever for the Big 4 to pull


53

ANY

QUESTIONS?

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