big world trends and the opportunities these create for ict€¦ · big world trends and the...
TRANSCRIPT
Big world trends and the opportunities these create for ICT
Hamish McRae
• Five great medium-term global shifts and …
• … their implications for the world of finance
• Three big questions about the future
The Future?The Future?
All futures have roots in the pastAll futures …
The presentation's structure
• Five great medium-term global shifts …
• … and how each might affect ICT applications
• Thoughts on the future of ICT applications …
• … in the six areas of the foresight project …
• … and some big questions about human needs
Five great global trends
• Demography – how do we turn this to advantage?
• The environment – we all need to be greener
• Globalisation – the historic shift of power to Asia
• Technology – towards a global level playing field
• Government – will spend less and regulate more
Ageing societies are different
• The developed world is getting older …
• … but at different rates
• Immigration does help – but only at the margin
• For Europe this is not just fixing pensions …
• … but also adapting to different types of work …
• … lifestyles, values and attitudes
What this might mean for ICT
• The European economy faces headwinds …
• … and ICT is one of the few weapons we have to cope
• Mechanical implications for using older workers …
• … part-timers, students and the unwaged
• Implications beyond the workplace
• But stress between old people and young technologies
• So ICT should be an invisible helping hand
It’s good to be green
• We can start to glimpse the end of the oil era …
• … recent price falls don't change the big trends
• Uncertain energy supplies, coupled with …
• … huge demand from the US, China and India
• The quest for mobility however will continue …
• … and concerns about climate change will rise
Is world oil production about to peak?
What this might mean for ICT
• A world where resources are no longer abundant …
• … substitutes technology for energy
• Obvious applications: driving up efficiency
• Less obvious: the push to "better", not "more"
• What follows the Western consumer economic model?
Globalisation is our friend
• The two “new” giants: China and India
• China lowest cost manufacturer in the world
• India lowest cost service provider
• Russia is quite different!
• So how can we justify European wages?
• Answer: intellect, culture and education
What this might mean for ICT
• The greatest shift of economic power for 150 years …
• … a shift in part driven by the new technologies
• Obvious applications in outsourcing …
• … but that is a hard way to earn a decent living
• So how do you use ICT to improve competitiveness?
• Answer: the only room is at the top of the market
ICT: application is the key
• It is a global level playing field …
• … and there is no "fringe" anymore
• Europe has no advantage over Asia
• So what can we do better than others?
• Answer: culturally sensitive applications
What this might mean for ICT
• The new technologies are universally available …
• … so application matters more than development …
• … but you need master technology
• The need to deploy European intelligence and creativity
• Estonia has some competitive advantages …
• … but there is no magic wand, just attention to detail
Government in the 21st century
• There are some things only governments can do
• But huge financial pressures as demands rise …
• … and revenues of most governments are cut away
• Government becomes an enabler, nudging society …
• … with light but effective regulation …
• … towards greater personal responsibility
What this might mean for ICT
• We are seeing a resurgence of the authority of the state
• But this is a blip on the path to "new government"
• "New government" is not just about lower taxes …
• … but about being more responsive to needs
• Estonia has special opportunities for using ICT
• E.g. How do you best connect with the diaspora?
The six foresight areas
• Education
• Health care
• Industry
• Energy
• Financial services
• ICT security
New education …
G7 INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT
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FEB 08 MAY 74 FEB 80 DEC 00
He could be wireless
G7 INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT
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FEB 08 MAY 74 FEB 80 DEC 00
He could be wireless
G7 INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT
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FEB 08 MAY 74 FEB 80 DEC 00
… old education?
G7 INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT
86
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102
-3 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48
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FEB 08 MAY 74 FEB 80 DEC 00
Education - lighting a fire
• Education becomes a two way street …
• … demand-driven as much as supply-driven
• All ages - not one shot
• A good university is a club …
• … and an industry …
• … and a magnet for economic success
Old health care …
G7 INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
-3 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48
MONTHS FROM CYCLE PEAK
PEA
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FEB 08 MAY 74 FEB 80 DEC 00
… new health care?
G7 INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
-3 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48
MONTHS FROM CYCLE PEAK
PEA
K M
ON
TH =
100
FEB 08 MAY 74 FEB 80 DEC 00
Health - physician heal thyself
• How to you foster a healthier society?
• ICT enables people to control their own health
• So how do you persuade them to do so?
• Information. Education. Persuasion.
Old industry …
G7 INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
-3 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48
MONTHS FROM CYCLE PEAK
PEA
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ON
TH =
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FEB 08 MAY 74 FEB 80 DEC 00
… new industry?
G7 INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
-3 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48
MONTHS FROM CYCLE PEAK
PEA
K M
ON
TH =
100
FEB 08 MAY 74 FEB 80 DEC 00
Industry - the march to services
• Industry in Europe will be high-tech or crafts …
• … as mass manufacturing goes to Asia
• So ICT has to support niches …
• … support exportable services …
• … foster start-ups …
• … and use the workforce it has got
Old energy …
G7 INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
-3 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48
MONTHS FROM CYCLE PEAK
PEA
K M
ON
TH =
100
FEB 08 MAY 74 FEB 80 DEC 00
… new energy?
G7 INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
-3 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48
MONTHS FROM CYCLE PEAK
PEA
K M
ON
TH =
100
FEB 08 MAY 74 FEB 80 DEC 00
Energy - efficiency is the key
• Efficiency in energy use …
• … in energy education …
• … and in lifestyles
• So do the standard applications but …
• … remember life has to be fun!
Old finance …
G7 INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
-3 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48
MONTHS FROM CYCLE PEAK
PEA
K M
ON
TH =
100
FEB 08 MAY 74 FEB 80 DEC 00
… new finance?
G7 INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
-3 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48
MONTHS FROM CYCLE PEAK
PEA
K M
ON
TH =
100
FEB 08 MAY 74 FEB 80 DEC 00
Finance - under huge pressure
• The global supply of services will shrink …
• … and trust is very low
• But underlying demand will rise
• So how does ICT rebuild trust and meet demand?
Old ICT security …
G7 INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
-3 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48
MONTHS FROM CYCLE PEAK
PEA
K M
ON
TH =
100
FEB 08 MAY 74 FEB 80 DEC 00
… new ICT security?
G7 INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
-3 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48
MONTHS FROM CYCLE PEAK
PEA
K M
ON
TH =
100
FEB 08 MAY 74 FEB 80 DEC 00
ICT security - the global threat
• The world is at war …
• … and will continue to be for a generation
• How do we get out of the trenches?
• Don't get into them in the first place
We need to be self-critical …
I am not always happy with the compliments Estonia has received
Lennart Meri
… but also self-confident …
The country and society is strong enough to tell the truth with a straight back
Lennart Meri
… to answer the key question
What do human beings really want?
Anon
