b.neupane september 27
TRANSCRIPT
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ICT and Climate Change: Quo Vadis?
Kathmandu
Bhanu Neupane
Program Manager
ICT & Sciences and Open Access to Scientific Research
UNESCO, Paris
What have we already
learned?
Concept of Green Economy
Various Applications
A few tools for Green Economy
Role of Youth
Other?....
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Whose view matters most?
Experts
Yours
OURS or?
THEIRS?
3
4
Marginalized people’s own view of poverty Powerlessness - Lack of voice - Lack of independence
• The marginalized are subject to exploitation, humiliation
and corruption
• Powerlessness reinforces their inability to affect changes
to their situation
• Dependence on natural resource increases
Strategies must:
• Start with poor people‟s realities
• Build grassroots capacity to organize
• Work towards changing social norm
• Support social movements, innovation and leadership
Is there a positive correlation between
poverty and environmental degradation
YES: Poverty increases environmental degradation.
Poverty raises the discount rate decreasing incentives to conserve with
reduced NPV of future benefits.
Examples of present value of $100 of future income:
Poverty:
increases risk aversion,
leads to ill health,
reduces capacity to invest ,
raises demand for children, (Berkley group: 2010) 5
Discount
rate: i
Year
0
Year
1
Year
2
Year
5
Year
10
Year
30
0 100 100 100 100 100
10 100 91 83 62 39 6
25 100 80 64 33 11 0.1 = 10¢
Environmental Degradation and
Poverty
• Environmental degradation reduces the stock of natural
capital and poor are disproportionately affected.
• Environmental degradation increases vulnerability (e.g.
soil erosion….decreased yields, deforestation…flooding).
• Pollution increases morbidity and mortality (e.g.
exposure to pesticides, contaminated water, indoor air
pollution)
• Deforestation and over-pumping increase the cost of
basic goods such as firewood and drinking water
• Erik Ekholm (losing grounds) 6
Sara Scherr 2000
Although the relationship between poverty
and environment is highly variable, the
„downward spiral‟ is both avoidable and
reversible in many circumstances. Poor
people have an unrecognized potential for
adaptation and innovation.”
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Poverty need not be a source of
resource degradation
√ non-poor are the main source of degradation (big logging companies, livestock operations, over-consumption).
√ Traditional technologies are conservation friendly (agro-ecology, agroforestry).
√ Poor can adopt win-win technologies that raise incomes and increase conservation: ecoagriculture, ecotourism.
√ Cooperation/collective action in the management of Common Property Resources.
√ The poor can be environmental activists (Chipko movement in India, Chico Mendes rubber tappers in Brazil).
√ Markets for environmental services induce conservation by the poor
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Opinion
A debate is healthy
Blame-games are not!
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Humans are changing the global
environmental system in a globally-
significant way without…..
adequate knowledge of the system and thus
its response to change
First message:
Global change drivers
Population growth, movement and age
structures
Geo-political changes and realignments
Trade and subsidies
Technological changes
Climate change
U.S
. Bu
rea
u o
f the
Ce
ns
us
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13
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Global change impacts
• Global change is more than global climate variability/change
• It has natural PLUS human/social dimensions
• A constellation of changes, many global in domain
For example, we see large changes in:
NOAA Vitousek (1994)
Ma
ck
en
zie
et a
l (20
02
)
Ric
ha
rds
(19
91
), WR
I
(19
90
) Reid
& M
iller (1
989)
From: Steffen et al. 2004
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Four noteworthy trends …
1. The (continued) rise of the humans − Increases in people, wealth and intellectual resources
(brain power), leading to a ….
2. …. rise of demand ─ Increased demand for energy, food & natural resources
resulting in accelerated ….
3. … increasing climate change &
environmental impacts
4. … the rise of the machines (ICT).
Rise of Machines
Within the context of climate change and
green econmy
Are ICT Evil?
Are ICT victim?
Are ICT good?
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ICT as EVIL
Globally approx 2-3 % energy consumption is linked to
ICT usage
Energy demand for ICT is increasing at steady pace of
approx. 20%
Moore‟s law is also applicable for ICT-linked GHG
production
PCs & peripherals, Telecoms infrastructure
ICT use is increasing and so are GHG emissions from
ICT
Other social and economic costs? 19
ICT as Victim
On an average 3 billion $ worth of ICT
linked infrastructures are damaged every
year due to climate-linked phenomena.
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ICT as solution
ICT provides mitigation opportunities
ICT help in abating carbon emission
ICT enhance efficiency & facilitate
conservation
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Mitigation opportunities
1. Reducing GHG emissions from all stages of the ICT life
cycle
• and especially during their production, use and disposal
2. Making greater using ICT to mitigate vegetation related
emissions
• through the greater use of ICT based earth observation and
management systems and networks
3. Encouraging the development and adoption of ICT
based enabling technologies
• to reduce GHG emissions.
2
3
ICT to abate carbon emission
Reducing / substituting for travel
In 2007, Telstra held 7‟500 video conferences saving 4‟200 tonnes of
CO2
Flexible work arrangements
Each one million EU workers could save one million tonnes of CO2
annually by telecommuting
Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS)
In-car systems to assist in “eco-driving” can reduce CO2 emissions by
up to 20 per cent
Dematerialization (replacing atoms with bits)
Publications on-line save hundreds of tonnes of paper and significantly
reduces CO2 emissions annually compared with printing and distribution
of paper copies
Sources: Climate Risk report for Telstra, ETNO/WWF report, Toyota, ITU
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ICT enhance efficiency &
facilitate conservation by :
Process efficiency
Doing things fast
Use less energy emit less C
Connecting everything & everyone:
Instrumenting objects and places around us:
Empowering people to act
Measuring everything (& everyone!):
The Internet of Things
More info on energy use
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ICT enhance efficiency &
facilitate conservation by:
Controlling everything
Smart controls
Connect & control all motors & energy consumption
(embedded controls)
More options to reduce consumption: smart
motors, lighting, grid, buildings, logistics
/transport & cities
Physical Consumption
-Dematerialisation of Goods/Services
Journey Substitution
Physical Production
-Shift to Knowledge Economy
Energy Generation & Distribution
-Smart Power/Grid
Energy Use Manufacture & Use: -ICT (Green vs. Brown IT) -Smart Motors/Logistics -Smart Building Design -Smart Transport
e-Enabled: -Carbon Markets -Decision-Making -Policy Networks -Awareness/Capacity-Building -Technology Transfer
-CC Data Capture -CC Data Processing -CC Data Presentation and Dissemination
Application Areas / CC Related Vulnerabilities -Socio-Polítical -Livelihoods & Finance -Health -Habitat -Food (Agriculture) -Water
ICT Adaptation Role -Measuring -Informing & Networking -Deciding:
•Predicting (Risk, Early Warning) •Planning (inc. Local Mitigation) •Coping (Short-Term/ Disaster) •Adapting (Long-Term)
-Transacting -Producing -Mobility
Mitigation (Causes)
Strategy
Monitoring
Adaptation (Effects)
ICT and Climate Change
ICT and Climate Change
Role of ICT Role of ICT ICT Intervention Focus ICT Intervention Focus
Climate Change AWARENESS
Climate Change AWARENESS
Initial/Generic Awareness of Climate Change Specific Awareness of Local Issues
Climate Change MITIGATION
Climate Change MITIGATION
Climate Change MONITORING
Climate Change MONITORING
Climate Change ADAPTATION
Climate Change ADAPTATION
Natural Resource-Oriented: -Forest Management -Agriculture Management -Land Evaluation and Use
Capacity-Building Oriented
External Data Local Data Hybrid Local-External Systems
Vulnerability-Oriented: -Food + Water Security -Income Generation -Health -Infrastructure -Political Participation -Security
Climatic Threat-Oriented Ospina & Heeks (2012)
Let us look at some cool
innovations?
Digitization &
dematerialization
Microprocessors
Handhelds vs desk/lap
tops
Internet diffusion
Broadband
Cloud computing
Cyber physical systems
Wireless & mobile device
The Internet of Things
(IOT)
Sensor technology
Web 2.0 & 3.0
Social networking
Improved & greener
batteries
GIS & visualization
technologies
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But can we be complacent?
Lets take an example!
Water
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Linking climate Change with
Water Resources - Impacts?
Intensification of hydrological cycle – increased floods and droughts
Changes to global distribution of precipitation – increased rainfall in high latitudes, decreases in tropics
But: Global Climate Models are very poor at
representing hydrological systems
Regional and local effects are highly uncertain
Models provide grid-square average and don‟t provide a comprehensive picture of the system 30
Water resources
Q first separation point
second separation point
P
P = rainfall
F
F = infiltration
Qs
Qs = overland flow
Qg
Qg = seepage
R = percolation
R C
C = capillary rise
Es
Es = soil evaporation
Eo
Eo = open water evaporation
E = I+T+Eo+Es
I
I = interception
T
T = transpiration
Su (soil)
Sw+g
(waterbodies+
groundwater)
Stocks:
Ss (surface)
GRDC: Current stations in historical database indicated by time series end
Lack of information and data at a time when we need it more than ever to deal with increasing complexity – where is ICT?
Lack of finer-scale measurements of
water cycle components in the Third
Pole Environment
IPCC “… Working Group II contribution
to the underlying assessment refers to
poorly substantiated estimates of
rate of recession and date for the
disappearance of Himalayan
glaciers.” (IPCC statement on the melting of Himalayan
glaciers, 20 Jan. 2010).
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There is a critical lack of knowledge for this unique
environment, because, current estimates of the plateau water
balance rely at best on sparse and scarce observations
In-situ observation data cannot provide the required accuracy,
spatial density and temporal frequency for quantification of impacts
and development of adaptation and mitigation measures.
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CU
RR
EN
T F
UT
UR
E
So are we still at the square
ONE?
Quo Vadis ICT?
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Let us now take ICT’s impact
on poor people!
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Assumption:
ICT can help the marginalized
• to make informed decisions
• to better organise themselves
• to communicate their interests
• to break down their isolation and structures of
discrimination
• to support economic and social innovation that benefit
them
• ICT can improve the efficiency and responsiveness of
groups that work with the marginalized
Engaging the marginalized:
obstacles to overcome
• Lack of access (infrastructure)
• High cost of access (when available)
• Lack of spare time and mobility
• Lack of IT literacy
• Lack of relevant content in vernacular languages
• Lack of inclusive access models focused on the
poor and marginalized
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Engaging the marginalized:
obstacles to overcome
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• Lack of enabling policies and strategies
• Knowledge Infomediaries
• Content Appropriateness
• Multi-stakeholder Engagement
• New and Traditional Knowledge
• Focus on the Information Chain
Again are we still at the
square ONE?
Quo Vadis ICT?
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UNESCO’s initiatives
• Putting ICT in the hands of the poor
• Develop innovative solutions for the marginalized, isolated and disadvantaged
• Empower people living in poverty, especially women and youth
• Develop replicable models through mixing and matching traditional and new media technologies
• Assess impact and readjust the methodologies through action research
• Use of Cyber physical systems
• Open Data
• Open Access to Scientific research
• Open source softwares
• Social networks (Possible future?)
Take Home Messages
• Technology is only part of the solution.
• Relevant innovation is driven locally.
• Green economy doesn‟t mean to buy its way out of
environmental problems.
• Creating trust helps to secure the license to
operate.
• Anticipate risks that stem from outside the existing
system.
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In conclusion:
You are a mass of 1.06 billion strong!
You are most ICT educated and enabled mass (75% have access to mobile) Change will be possible ONLY when you are
mobilized.
My big boss Mr. Ban Ki Moon has thus said:
“You have the opportunity to change our world.
Seize it.”
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