Bottlenecks – where and why?Challenges and opportunities facing the future Nordic electricity market

Jussi Jyrinsalo

Trends affecting the electricity market

2011 2012 2013 201405

1015202530

Wind power generation in Nordic countries

[TWh]• Long-term main trends – More and more subsidized wind power– Decommissioning of conventional production– No significant increase in electricity demand– Import from Russia has collapsed

• Summer and autumn 2015– Extraordinarily high precipitation– Lack and sudden outages of transmission

capacity have strong market impacts

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

15

35

55

Yearly average electricity price per country [€/MWh]

Sweden NorwayDenmark Finland

More grid congestions and price differences

Bot

tom

-up

scen

ario

s Top-down scenarios

But what will the transmission needs be in 2030?Visions are prepared and grid is planned in a more centralized way, but power generation planning is becoming more and more decentralized!