Brazil - IBGE´s Short-term Economic Statistics

Rebeca de La Rocque PalisHead of Quarterly National Accounts

National Accounts Co-ordinationrebeca.palis@ibge.gov.br

June, 2007

Diretoria de Pesquisas

Current Production

• The Monthly Survey of Mining and Manufacturing Physical Production - Brazil (PIM-PF)

• The Monthly Survey of Trade (PMC)

• The Monthly Employment Survey (PME)

• The National System of Consumer Price Indexes (SNIPC)

• Quarterly National Accounts (SCT)

PIM-PF

• The Monthly Survey of Mining and Manufacturing Physical Production - Brazil has produced short-term indicators relative to the behavior of the mining and manufacturing industries´ production since the decade of 1970.

• Periodicity: Monthly

• Geographic coverage: Brazil

• Timeliness: Results are published 35 days after the end of the reference month.

PIM-PF

• In April 2004, PIM-PF was reformulated with the following objectives:

update the sample of industrial activities, products and informers;

new weighting structure based on more recent industrial statistics (Annual Survey of Mining and Manufacturing Industries 1998-2000);

adopt new products and activities classifications used by the other industrial surveys since 1996.

PIM-PF

• Selection of goods and informers: intentional sampling based on the value of output in Annual Survey of Mining and Manufacturing Industry- Products Statistics (1998), so as to obtain a representative sample of the industrial universe.

Coverage of 63% for Brazil according to the industrial value added in the 1998-2000 period.

By month, around 830 manufactured products are selected, in about 3 700 industrial local units, totalizing a set of approximately 4 900 monthly information.

PIM-PF

• The primary data are obtained directly from companies mainly through electronic questionnaire on IBGE´s website in the first ten days of the month following the reference month of the survey.

• Publication:

Monthly fixed-base index (2002=100);

Monthly index - comparing to the same month of the preceding year;

Cumulative indexes for the year and for the last twelve months

PIM-PF

• Monthly fixed-base indices seasonally adjusted are published for total, industry sections, industrial activities, and broad economic categories. The X-12 ARIMA method (version: 0.2.10) is used for seasonal adjustment.

PIM-PF

•The revised series begins in January 2002. Its implementation did not cause a rupture in the historical series, since the previous series, which began in January 1991, was chained to the new one.

•The old historical series (from January 1985 up to January 2004), based on the Industrial Census of 1985, and the new one (from January 1991 until now) are available online, at:

www.sidra.ibge.gov.br

PMC• The Monthly Survey of Trade produces short-term indicators capturing the behavior of retail trade in Brazil. The survey investigates the gross sales revenue of formally established companies, with 20 or more employees, and whose main activity is retail sale. According to the Annual Survey of Trade, this segment covers, on average, 63% of the gross revenue of resale.

• Periodicity: Monthly

• Geographic coverage: Brazil

• Timeliness: Results are published 45 days after the end of the reference month.

PMC

• The survey started in 1995, only in Rio de Janeiro´s metropolitan area.

• The version of the survey with national coverage started in 2000, producing volume and nominal indicators, based on gross revenue of resale, for the total retail trade and divided into five groups of activities: fuels and lubricating oils supermarket, food, beverage and tobacco products textiles, dressing and footwear furniture and domestic appliances other articles of personal and domestic use

PMC

• In 2004, the series changed to base 2003=100. The segment "Other articles of personal and domestic use" was subdivided in "Pharmaceutical, medical, orthopedic and perfumery articles", "Office, computer and communication equipment", "Books, newspapers, magazines and stationery articles" and "Others”.

• Also, the survey expanded its coverage to include “Construction material”. Start of the series “Extended retail trade” that aggregates to “Retail trade” the activities "Vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces" and "Construction material", which also include the wholesale segment.

PMC

• The sample selection database of PMC is formed by retail companies which are operational according to the Annual Survey of Trade. First, the population is divided in two strata: one with large pre-selected companies and an other with a random sample of smaller ones.

PMC

•The sales volume indexes are obtained by deflating the gross revenue of resale. For all series, except "Construction material”, the deflator used is a specific price got from the Broad National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) for each State. In the States not covered by IPCA, the price index of more appropriate geographic area are used.

PMC

• Monthly fixed-base indices seasonally adjusted are compiled for “Retail trade”, “Fuels and lubricating oils”, “Supermarket, food, beverage and tobacco products”, “Textiles, dressing and footwear”, “Furniture and domestic appliances” and "Vehicles, motorcycles, parts and pieces”. The X-12 ARIMA method (version: 0.2.10) is used for seasonal adjustment.

PMC

• Seasonally adjusted series, volume indexes series and nominal indexes series are all available online at:

www.sidra.ibge.gov.br/bda

PME

• The Monthly Employment Survey, which is a household sample survey, produces labour market indicators for the resident population aged 10 and over. Since 1980, PME has been carried out in six Metropolitan Areas which together represent around 25% of the country´s total population.

• Periodicity: Monthly

• Geographic coverage: Metropolitan areas of Recife, Salvador, Belo Horizonte, Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo and Porto Alegre.

• Timeliness: Results are published 25 days after the end of the reference month.

PME

• PME captures, among others, average nominal and real income, employment and unemployment of the economically active population.

• The survey sample involves around 40,000 households. The data collection is continuous throughout the four weeks of the month. PME uses a probabilistic sample of household units, stratified and clustered in two levels, by Metropolitan Area of the survey coverage.

PME

• In October 2001, PME went through a methodological revision process aiming to update its thematic coverage and to adjust to the latest international recommendations (International Labour Organization). The new series are available since March 2002, online at:

www.sidra.ibge.gov.br/bda

• The indicators have not yet been seasonally adjusted. Studies are being carried out to obtain seasonally-adjusted indicators with the new Monthly Employment Survey.

The National System of Consumer Price Indexes IPCA

• The Broad National Consumer Price Index covers the movement of prices of goods and services purchased by households with a monthly income of 01-40 minimum wages. The coverage areas represent 35% of the urban population and 29% of the entire national population.

•Periodicity: Monthly

• Geographic coverage: Metropolitan areas of Belém, Fortaleza, Recife, Salvador, Belo Horizonte, Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo, Curitiba and Porto Alegre, Brasília and the municipality of Goiânia.

• Timeliness: Results are published between nine and 15 days after the end of the reference month.

IPCA

• IPCA, a Laspeyres index, tracks the movement of prices of a fixed basket of goods and services as determined in the Consumer Expenditure Survey (2002/2003). It is a measure of the change in retail prices, including taxes.

• The data collection period of IPCA goes from day 01 until day 30 of the reference month.

• On July 1999, Brazil formally adopted inflation targeting as the monetary policy framework and the IPCA was selected as the reference measure.

IPCA

•The monthly index is calculated with approximately 331,000 prices collected in 34,000 establishments.

• The collection of goods and services prices is continuous throughout the month. The general rule is that the prices of each product are collected every month. Information is collected annually for taxes, the amounts of which are set once a year.

•The weights applied in the calculation of IBGE´s consumer price indices are based on the Consumer Expenditure Survey (2002/2003).

IPCA

• The sub-items with seasonal behavior are adjusted. The X-11 ARIMA method (version: XA.88) is used for seasonal adjustment.

• All data are available online at: www.sidra.ibge.gov.br/bda

SCT• The new series of the Brazilian System of Quarterly National Accounts were released in March 2007, following the reformulation of the Annual System.

• The two systems were reformulated to incorporate all available data from the new statistics system with some methodological improvements and a new classification of products and activities. • Periodicity: Quarterly

• Geographic coverage: Brazil

• Timeliness: The complete accounts, volume indexes and current prices, are published 70 days after the end of the reference quarter.

SCT

• In the Brazilian System of Quarterly National Accounts supply and use tables discriminate a hundred and ten (110) products and fifty five (55) activities. The evolution of the series at current prices has been estimated by multiplying the estimated price and volume movements together. For some specific sectors, such as Public Administration and Financial Institutions, the current values are directly obtained.

•The supply and demand sub-items with seasonal behavior are adjusted. The X-12 ARIMA method (version: 0.2.10) is used for seasonal adjustment.

•All data are available online at: www.sidra.ibge.gov.br/bda

IBGE´s ongoing projects

• Producer Price Indexes

• National Consumer Price Indexes

• The Integrated System of Household Sample Survey

Producer Price Indexes

Producer Price Indexes - IPP / IBGE+ transport expenses + insurance+ wholesalers trade margin+ other expenses

Wholesale Price Indexes - IPA / FGV

+ Impostos IndiretosPREÇO ATACADISTA COM IMPOSTOS+ Gastos de transporte para o comércio atacadista ou consumidor+ Margem do varejista + Outros gastos geraisPREÇO DO CONSUMIDOR IPC

National Accounts Deflators

Producer Price Indexes

• Periodicity: Monthly

• Geographic coverage: Brazil

• Timeliness: Between the end of the reference month and the fifteenth of the following month

• Initial scope: Manufacturing

• Probable date for the first publication covering all manufacturing: 2010.

Producer Price Indexes

• The monthly index for manufacturing will be calculated with approximately 15,000 prices collected for 300 products and 2,400 informers.

• Selection of goods and informers: a subgroup selected from the Monthly Survey of Mining and Manufacturing Physical Production.

• The primary data will be obtained directly from companies mainly through electronic questionnaire.

National Consumer Price Indexes

Current geographic coverage

National Consumer Price Indexes

Coverage of the current model

37,02004

38,02000

39,51996

44,01980

% PopYear

National Consumer Price Indexes

• New indexes will cover all the 27 States of the country through probabilistic sample.

• Probable date for the first publication with national coverage: 2010.

The Integrated System of Household Sample Survey

Main intentions:

• Integrate PME (The Monthly Employment Survey) and PNAD (The National Household Sample Survey) to produce short-term national labour market indicators.

• Create a Continuos Consumer Expenditure Survey.

The Integrated System of Household Sample Survey

• Construct a “Master Sample” to be used in all household surveys.

• Schedule depends on the Brazilian Government Budget.

Thank You

rebeca.palis@ibge.gov.br