bridget mc kenzie museum scenarios 2020
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Museum Scenarios 2020
Bridget McKenzie
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Three ways to model futures
1. Normative: desired future built on common ideals 2. Extrapolating: probable future built on trends 3. Scenarios: possible futures built on both ideals and trends
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• Understand megatrends (or major driving forces) for your focal issue
• Distinguish between trends and megatrends.
• Understand the critical uncertainties for your issue
• Distinguish between gamechangers and Black Swans
Driving Forces and Uncertainties
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To simplify it…
Gamechangers Trends
Black Swans Megatrends
Driving forces
Critical uncertainties
Scale, complexity and power
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Trends affecting museums by 2020
For example:• Public resources as open commons• Traditional education challenged by open
and informal learning • Pressure for museums to have ever more
social impact• More democratic participation
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Event at Santa Cruz Museum of Art & History
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Megatrends affecting museums
• Unemployment in Europe • Austerity measures: cuts to museumsBUT
• Growth in cultural tourism• Rapid advances in technology (especially
‘hypernature’ – enhancing bioservices)
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Gamechangers affecting museumsFor example, • 3D printing• Alternative currency• Wearable tech• Crowds (positive
but also a shadow side)
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Black Swans affecting museums
…and everyone
• Global warming: two orders of magnitude greater in C21 than in last Ice Age; CO2 now at 400pmm
• Ecocide: biodiversity losses • Resource insecurity• Social awareness of injustice causing unrest
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Scenarios need constant feeding
United Micro-kingdoms
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Europe in 2020?
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Europe2020EU’s ‘Smart, Sustainable, Inclusive’ goals to tackle the crisis by 2020:• 75% employment• 20% less GHG emissions, 20% more efficient• 40% completing higher education• Lift 20 million out of poverty
Can you use any of this to build your scenarios?
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Tech in 2020?
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Tech visions 2020‘Internet of Things in 2020’ is one of several. IoT2020: megatrends for this focal issue: • Data deluge: exacerbated by IoT• Energy shortage: devices must harvest own• Miniaturisation• Autonomic resources: self managing &
healing
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Brain control interface
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Museums2020• Museum Association project• Bold vision for future of UK museums • Help museums think long term• Doesn’t aim to predict future• Questioning the sector & public on role &
impact of museums on individuals, society & environment
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How can we map future museum scenarios?
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People’s museum
Green museum
Attraction museum
Unmuseum
DisruptionTradition
Mission: diversity and wellbeing
Mission: wealth creation
Social justice
Ecotopia
Growth is god
Techno-utopia
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Without radical disruption…
People’s heritage destroyed through conflict.Syria now, what next?
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Attraction museum with no visitors?
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Green Museum: Biomuseo in Panama
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Green Museums 2020?
• Using and promoting alternative currencies, or gifting • Constituted as community co-
operatives• Modelling the ‘circular economy’ • Education to develop future skills
such as bioempathy
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Unmuseum: Museum as base or catalyst
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Unmuseums 2020?• Unlimited by walls or traditions• Focus on what people will pay for• Partnerships generate profit for creative
industries?• 3D printing: museums in your home? • FabLab: tap museum knowledge of
materials and context?• Neuroscience and immersive memory
narratives: as therapy?
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Ideal: The Disruptive Museum?Mix the Green and the Unmuseum?
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A movement of disruptive museums?
• Global commons to conserve cultural and natural diversity, built on heritage
• Reflect on things: Promote wellbeing beyond consumption of things
• Act as hubs for sustainable communities: showcase and commission ecosocial innovation
• Contemporary art and creative tech as catalysts for change
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Think the unthink-able
Talk to me on @bridgetmckthelearningplanet.wordpress.comwww.flowassociates.com