bridging to a reduced-carbon future energy system
TRANSCRIPT
Bridging to a Bridging to a ReducedReduced--Carbon Carbon Future Energy SystemFuture Energy System
Stanford University GCEP SeminarApril 2004
John H. ShinnSenior Staff Adviser, Global Issues
ChevronTexaco
Importance of BridgingImportance of BridgingImportance of Bridging
From PAST… – Benefits from history
Possible successful transition approaches.How long should it take?What resources might be needed?
And PRESENT… – Examines key features of current state,
opportunities for change
To FUTURE:– Build to new system from existing
From PAST… From PAST… –– Benefits from historyBenefits from history
Possible successful transition approaches.Possible successful transition approaches.How long should it take?How long should it take?What resources might be needed?What resources might be needed?
And PRESENT… And PRESENT… –– Examines key features of current state, Examines key features of current state,
opportunities for changeopportunities for change
To FUTURE:To FUTURE:–– Build to new system from existingBuild to new system from existing
Advantages of BridgingAdvantages of BridgingAdvantages of Bridging
Reduced transition cost– Lower capital requirements
Improved penetration rates– ‘piggie-backing” on current system
Immediate and long-term benefits– Improves current system toward future system– Not just ‘incrementalism’ but planned integration
Intentionally addresses questions on “How do we get there from here?”
Reduced transition costReduced transition cost–– Lower capital requirementsLower capital requirements
Improved penetration ratesImproved penetration rates–– ‘‘piggiepiggie--backing” on current systembacking” on current system
Immediate and longImmediate and long--term benefitsterm benefits–– Improves current system toward future systemImproves current system toward future system–– Not just ‘Not just ‘incrementalismincrementalism’ but planned integration’ but planned integration
Intentionally addresses questions on “How do Intentionally addresses questions on “How do we get there from here?”we get there from here?”
Bridging to Reduced Carbon EnergyBridging to Reduced Carbon Bridging to Reduced Carbon EnergyEnergy
What: – Energy Supply By Fuel: Historic, recent
Where: – Consumption By Region– Sector Issues
Link to other reduction opportunities:– Current GHG Reduction opportunities
Other bridges to consider– Policy bridges– Business – Technical resource and educational needs
What: What: –– Energy Supply By Fuel: Historic, recentEnergy Supply By Fuel: Historic, recent
Where: Where: –– Consumption By RegionConsumption By Region–– Sector IssuesSector Issues
Link to other reduction opportunities:Link to other reduction opportunities:–– Current GHG Reduction opportunitiesCurrent GHG Reduction opportunities
Other bridges to considerOther bridges to consider–– Policy bridgesPolicy bridges–– Business Business –– Technical resource and educational needsTechnical resource and educational needs
Bridge 1: What to ChangeGlobal Primary energy supply
Bridge 1: Bridge 1: What to ChangeWhat to ChangeGlobal Primary energy supplyGlobal Primary energy supply
Historic trends– Expected rates of
change.– Move toward lower
carbon.
Recent changes– What are the more
likely transitions?
Historic trendsHistoric trends–– Expected rates of Expected rates of
change.change.–– Move toward lower Move toward lower
carbon.carbon.
Recent changesRecent changes–– What are the more What are the more
likely transitions?likely transitions?
Changing the World’s Energy Supply Is a Slow ProcessChanging the World’s Energy Supply Is a Slow Process
Historical and Projected Trends in Global Primary Energy Consumption(Fraction of Global Energy Market)Historical and Projected Trends in Global Primary Energy Consumption(Fraction of Global Energy Market)
Typical Penetration Rates: 1-10% or 10-30% = 30-50 yearsTypical Penetration Rates: 1-10% or 10-30% = 30-50 years
Source: C. Marchetti and N. Nakicenovic. 1984. “The Dynamics of Energy Systems and the Logistic Substitution Model,” Research Report 79-13, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria.Cited: Lee, T., B. Ball, and R. Tabors, Energy Aftermath, Harvard Business School Press, 1990.
Source: C. Marchetti and N. Nakicenovic. 1984. “The Dynamics of Energy Systems and the Logistic Substitution Model,” Research Report 79-13, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria.Cited: Lee, T., B. Ball, and R. Tabors, Energy Aftermath, Harvard Business School Press, 1990.
Global Primary Energy SupplyRecent TrendsGlobal Primary Energy SupplyGlobal Primary Energy SupplyRecent TrendsRecent Trends
1973 6034 MTOE
CoalOilGasNuclearHydroWood+Renew
1973 6034 MTOE
CoalOilGasNuclearHydroWood+Renew
200310029 MTOE
200310029 MTOE
Source: IEA Key Energy Statistics 2003
Some Conclusions on “What”Some Conclusions on “What”Some Conclusions on “What”
Needs to meet growth – 2/3 Increase over 30 years in total supply
Hydrocarbons still the energy of the future– Coal maintaining
Reserves-Infrastructure-Cost advantages– Oil dropping in share– Gas growing; appears able to expand
Fit to slow decarbonization trend (Coal to Oil to Gas)– 1973: 25-45-15– Now: 23-35-20
Suggests a natural gas bridge???
Needs to meet growth Needs to meet growth –– 2/3 Increase over 30 years in total supply2/3 Increase over 30 years in total supply
Hydrocarbons still the energy of the futureHydrocarbons still the energy of the future–– Coal maintaining Coal maintaining
ReservesReserves--InfrastructureInfrastructure--Cost advantagesCost advantages–– Oil dropping in shareOil dropping in share–– Gas growing; appears able to expandGas growing; appears able to expand
Fit to slow Fit to slow decarbonizationdecarbonization trend trend (Coal to Oil to Gas)(Coal to Oil to Gas)–– 1973: 251973: 25--4545--1515–– Now: 23Now: 23--3535--2020
Suggests a natural gas bridge???Suggests a natural gas bridge???
A Natural (Gas) Step Toward H2A Natural (Gas) Step Toward H2A Natural (Gas) Step Toward H2
050
100150200250300350400
Coal Oil Methane
CH
Molecules Hydrogen per 100 Carbon atomsMolecules Hydrogen per 100 Carbon atoms
03/08/00 GDL G2000164 Shinn 9
Greenhouse Advantage of GasGreenhouse Advantage of Gas
Life-Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions - Power GenerationLife-Cycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions - Power Generation
0
500
1000
1500
kg CO2 Eq/MWHr
AustrBrownCoal
AustrBlack Coal
Mid-EastOil
LNG
Advantages of Natural Gas TransitionAdvantages of Natural Gas TransitionAdvantages of Natural Gas Transition
Affordable today
Potential double benefits– Flare reduction example
Current dominant source of hydrogen; likely best source for decades– Gas distribution infrastructure facilitates
hydrogen transition
Affordable todayAffordable today
Potential double benefitsPotential double benefits–– Flare reduction exampleFlare reduction example
Current dominant source of hydrogen; likely Current dominant source of hydrogen; likely best source for decadesbest source for decades–– Gas distribution infrastructure facilitates Gas distribution infrastructure facilitates
hydrogen transitionhydrogen transition
Bridge 2: Where to ChangeBridge 2: Bridge 2: Where to ChangeWhere to Change
Regional picture
Expected Investment trends
SectoralOpportunities
Regional pictureRegional picture
Expected Investment Expected Investment trendstrends
SectoralSectoralOpportunitiesOpportunities
Consumption by RegionConsumption by RegionConsumption by Region
19734548 MTOE
OECD
FormerUSSR
China
OtherAsia
Lat Amer
Africa
MidEast
Other
19734548 MTOE
OECD
FormerUSSR
China
OtherAsia
Lat Amer
Africa
MidEast
Other
20016995 MTOE
20016995 MTOE
Source: IEA Key Energy Statistics 2003
“Where” Observations“Where” Observations“Where” Observations
Developed Country dominance shrinking– Down from 62% to 52%
Substantial opportunities to affect energy supply in both developed AND developing world– Considerable new investments in developed
regions (although not large relative to existing infrastructure)
– Developing regions (esp Asia) largest growth area
Greatest opportunity areas to change carbon intensity
Developed Country dominance shrinkingDeveloped Country dominance shrinking–– Down from 62% to 52%Down from 62% to 52%
Substantial opportunities to affect energy Substantial opportunities to affect energy supply in both developed AND developing supply in both developed AND developing worldworld–– Considerable new investments in developed Considerable new investments in developed
regions (although not large relative to existing regions (although not large relative to existing infrastructure)infrastructure)
–– Developing regions (Developing regions (espesp Asia) largest growth Asia) largest growth areaarea
Greatest opportunity areas to change Greatest opportunity areas to change carbon intensitycarbon intensity
Expected “Where” Profile of Future Energy Investments (to 2030)Expected “Where” Profile of Future Expected “Where” Profile of Future Energy Investments (to 2030)Energy Investments (to 2030)
Source: IEA
Expected Energy Investment Distribution to 2030Expected Energy Investment Expected Energy Investment Distribution to 2030Distribution to 2030
Source: IEA
TransportationTransportationTransportation
Transport 1973959 MTOE
Coal
Oil Prods
Gas
Wood+
Renew
Transport 1973959 MTOE
Coal
Oil Prods
Gas
Wood+
Renew
20011802 MTOE
20011802 MTOE
•Almost doubled in 30 years•Continued dominance of oil
Source: IEA Key Energy Statistics 2003
Bridge 3: Current opportunities for GHG reduction Petroleum industry example
Bridge 3: Bridge 3: Current opportunities for GHG Current opportunities for GHG reduction reduction Petroleum industry examplePetroleum industry example
Distribution by emissions type
The Flare Reduction multiple opportunity– Reduce emissions– Increase gas supply – Improve resource
use effectiveness
Distribution by Distribution by emissions typeemissions type
The Flare Reduction The Flare Reduction multiple opportunitymultiple opportunity–– Reduce emissionsReduce emissions–– Increase gas supply Increase gas supply –– Improve resource Improve resource
use effectivenessuse effectiveness
‘Typical’ Petroleum Company GHG Emissions Profile‘Typical’ Petroleum Company ‘Typical’ Petroleum Company GHG Emissions ProfileGHG Emissions Profile
Combustion64.0%
Flaring28.0%
Other8.0%
Potential Areas for PetroleumIndustry Emissions Reduction ProjectsPotential Areas for PetroleumPotential Areas for PetroleumIndustry Emissions Reduction ProjectsIndustry Emissions Reduction Projects
Combustion– Power and steam generation– Energy efficiency– Fuel switching
Alternate energy– Solar, wind, geothermal
Flare Reduction– Enhance competition vsnon-associated gas use
CombustionCombustion–– Power and steam generationPower and steam generation–– Energy efficiencyEnergy efficiency–– Fuel switchingFuel switching
Alternate energyAlternate energy–– Solar, wind, geothermalSolar, wind, geothermal
Flare ReductionFlare Reduction–– Enhance competition vsEnhance competition vsnonnon--associated gas useassociated gas use
Addressing Global Gas Flaring Reduction
Combustion64.0%
Flaring28.0%
Other8.0%
Associated Gas Flaring: The ChallengeAssociated Gas Flaring: Associated Gas Flaring: The ChallengeThe Challenge
Large quantities of gas produced as a byproduct of oil production are flared worldwide.
Solutions are needed that enable this valuable resource to be utilized effectively.
Magnitude of the IssueMagnitude of the IssueMagnitude of the Issue
Wasted Resource - 110 Bcm/yr (>3 TCF)– 37 BCM Flared in Africa = 200 TWh of CCGT
power productionenough power for 85 million low-income urban households
An environmental problem - 300+ Mt CO2e– >10% of Annex 1 countries’ Kyoto
commitments
– Local effects – health and ecosystems near flaring sites
Wasted Resource - 110 Bcm/yr (>3 TCF)– 37 BCM Flared in Africa = 200 TWh of CCGT
power productionenough power for 85 million low-income urban households
An environmental problem - 300+ Mt CO2e– >10% of Annex 1 countries’ Kyoto
commitments
– Local effects – health and ecosystems near flaring sites
Flaring Reduction OptionsFlaring Reduction OptionsFlaring Reduction Options
Bring Gas To Market
Re-injection
Stop Production (“Shut-in”)
Bring Gas To MarketBring Gas To Market
ReRe--injectioninjection
Stop Production Stop Production (“Shut(“Shut--in”)in”)
Gas to Market Technical Solutions Gas to Market Technical Solutions Gas to Market Technical Solutions
Gas-To-Liquids
LNGCNG Shipping
Pipelines
Gas Treating & Reinjection
“Gas To Wires”?
Source: U Houston
Gas to Market Barriers Gas to Market Barriers Gas to Market Barriers Distance from markets
Lack of local utilization or export infrastructure
Cost competitiveness against non-associated gas resources
Regional fiscal terms
Regional political stability
Multiple Potential Benefits:The West African Gas Pipeline Example
Multiple Potential Benefits:Multiple Potential Benefits:The West African Gas The West African Gas Pipeline ExamplePipeline Example
Gas FlaresGas Flares
80 Million TCarbon
80 Million TCarbon
1. Nigeria Today1. Nigeria Today
100 Million TCarbon
100 Million TCarbon
TreesTrees
Fuel OilFuel Oil
Fuel ChoiceBased onLowest Cost
Fuel ChoiceBased onLowest Cost
GhanaGhana
2. What Would Otherwise Occur2. What Would Otherwise Occur80 Million T Carbon
80 Million T Carbon
CharcoalCharcoal
0 Million TCarbon
0 Million TCarbon
3. Same Growth But With Pipeline3. Same Growth But With Pipeline80 Million TCarbon
80 Million TCarbon
Gas PipelineGas Pipeline
TreesTrees
Additional Benefits:• Reduce Air Pollution• Reduce Desertification• Preserve Bio-Diversity• Improve Health• Sequestration in Trees
Additional Benefits:• Reduce Air Pollution• Reduce Desertification• Preserve Bio-Diversity• Improve Health• Sequestration in Trees
Capture and StorageCapture and StorageCapture and Storage
Extends prospects for fossil fuels
Current applications…– Enhanced oil recovery (EOR)– Offshore Norway (avoid high CO2 tax)
Larger use inhibited by…– High capture cost– Source/sink matches for EOR
applications
Extends prospects for fossil fuelsExtends prospects for fossil fuels
Current applications…Current applications…–– Enhanced oil recovery (EOR)Enhanced oil recovery (EOR)–– Offshore Norway (avoid high CO2 tax)Offshore Norway (avoid high CO2 tax)
Larger use inhibited by…Larger use inhibited by…–– High capture costHigh capture cost–– Source/sink matches for EOR Source/sink matches for EOR
applicationsapplicationsSource: Statoil
Capture and StorageBridging StrategyCapture and StorageCapture and StorageBridging StrategyBridging Strategy
Demonstrate safe storage first– Pre-concentrated streams
Refinery hydrogen plantsNatural gas separationAmmonia plants
– High value end-usesEORCoal bed methane??
– Match source and sink locationsIntentional siting of new facilities
Improve capture costs
Demonstrate safe storage firstDemonstrate safe storage first–– PrePre--concentrated streamsconcentrated streams
Refinery hydrogen plantsRefinery hydrogen plantsNatural gas separationNatural gas separationAmmonia plantsAmmonia plants
–– High value endHigh value end--usesusesEOREORCoal bed methane??Coal bed methane??
–– Match source and sink locationsMatch source and sink locationsIntentional Intentional sitingsiting of new facilitiesof new facilities
Improve capture costsImprove capture costsSource: Statoil
Some Other Important BridgesSome Other Important BridgesSome Other Important Bridges
Governmental – Policy bridges
Business
Technical Capability
Governmental Governmental –– Policy bridgesPolicy bridges
BusinessBusiness
Technical Capability Technical Capability
Policy Bridges IExpanded ScopePolicy Bridges IPolicy Bridges IExpanded ScopeExpanded Scope
From single governments to Inter-governmental
Simplified routes to concurrence– From 170 parties to bottoms up?
From bilaterals/multilaterals/regional approaches
From local/regional to global thinking– Changes appropriate policy approaches
Local controls very likely sub-optimumE.g. Californina control on vehicle GHGs
From single governments to InterFrom single governments to Inter--governmentalgovernmental
Simplified routes to concurrenceSimplified routes to concurrence–– From 170 parties to bottoms up?From 170 parties to bottoms up?
From From bilateralsbilaterals/multilaterals/regional /multilaterals/regional approachesapproaches
From local/regional to global thinkingFrom local/regional to global thinking–– Changes appropriate policy approachesChanges appropriate policy approaches
Local controls very likely subLocal controls very likely sub--optimumoptimumE.g. E.g. CaliforninaCalifornina control on vehicle control on vehicle GHGsGHGs
Policy Bridges IIBuilding CooperationPolicy Bridges IIPolicy Bridges IIBuilding CooperationBuilding Cooperation
North-South balance –From conflicting to cooperative–Mutual wins needed
e.g. Clean Development Mechanism
NorthNorth--South balance South balance –– From conflicting to cooperativeFrom conflicting to cooperative–– Mutual wins needed Mutual wins needed
e.g. Clean Development e.g. Clean Development Mechanism Mechanism
Clean Development MechanismClean Development MechanismClean Development Mechanism
Provides GHG reduction credits to projects in developing countries
Gives incentive for …– developing countries to choose cleaner
technologies– developed county participants to fund these
projects
Provides GHG reduction credits to projects in Provides GHG reduction credits to projects in developing countriesdeveloping countries
Gives incentive for …Gives incentive for …–– developing countries to choose cleaner developing countries to choose cleaner
technologiestechnologies–– developed county participants to fund these developed county participants to fund these
projectsprojects
C D M
Example Offset/Credit OpportunitiesExample Offset/Credit OpportunitiesExample Offset/Credit Opportunities
Forestry (West Australia, Louisiana, Brazil)
Fuel Switching– From higher carbon fuels to natural gas
Korea, Ghana– Gas vs oil for steam generation
Geothermal energy generation (Indonesia)
Flare Reduction (Nigeria, Angola)
Geologic storage (Australia)
Wind Energy (Netherlands)
Hydrogen production/fuel cells
Forestry (West Australia, Louisiana, Brazil)Forestry (West Australia, Louisiana, Brazil)
Fuel SwitchingFuel Switching–– From higher carbon fuels to natural gasFrom higher carbon fuels to natural gas
Korea, GhanaKorea, Ghana–– Gas vs oil for steam generationGas vs oil for steam generation
Geothermal energy generation (Indonesia)Geothermal energy generation (Indonesia)
Flare Reduction (Nigeria, Angola)Flare Reduction (Nigeria, Angola)
Geologic storage (Australia)Geologic storage (Australia)
Wind Energy (Netherlands)Wind Energy (Netherlands)
Hydrogen production/fuel cellsHydrogen production/fuel cells
Policy Bridges IIBuilding CooperationPolicy Bridges IIPolicy Bridges IIBuilding CooperationBuilding Cooperation
Multi-stakeholder processes– Increased involvement of
businesses/Non-governmental organizations
– Johannesburg Partnership model
Flaring example
MultiMulti--stakeholder processesstakeholder processes–– Increased involvement of Increased involvement of
businesses/Nonbusinesses/Non--governmental governmental organizationsorganizations
–– Johannesburg Partnership Johannesburg Partnership modelmodel
Flaring exampleFlaring example
International Partnership Example:Global Gas Flaring Reduction PartnershipInternational Partnership Example:International Partnership Example:Global Gas Flaring Reduction PartnershipGlobal Gas Flaring Reduction Partnership
Public-private partnership to support flaring reduction– Help national governments achieve real
reductions– Improve framework for private sector
investments
Becoming the key player in flaring policy, credits, associated gas regulations.
PublicPublic--private partnership to support flaring private partnership to support flaring reductionreduction–– Help national governments achieve real Help national governments achieve real
reductionsreductions–– Improve framework for private sector Improve framework for private sector
investmentsinvestments
Becoming the key player in flaring policy, Becoming the key player in flaring policy, credits, associated gas regulations.credits, associated gas regulations.
Policy Bridges IIIMarket ApproachesPolicy Bridges IIIPolicy Bridges IIIMarket ApproachesMarket Approaches
$/ton focusFrom command and control to maximum benefit focus
– Emissions trading– Addressing market access issues
• Flared gas• Grid access
From Environmental Economics (“Triple Bottom Line”) to “Economic Environmentalism”– Harness profit motive
$/ton focus$/ton focusFrom command and control to maximum benefit From command and control to maximum benefit focusfocus
–– Emissions tradingEmissions trading–– Addressing market access issuesAddressing market access issues
•• Flared gasFlared gas•• Grid accessGrid access
From Environmental Economics (“Triple Bottom Line”) From Environmental Economics (“Triple Bottom Line”) to “Economic Environmentalism”to “Economic Environmentalism”–– Harness profit motiveHarness profit motive
A “Tacoma Narrows” Bridge?California’s Vehicle GHG ControlsA “Tacoma Narrows” Bridge?A “Tacoma Narrows” Bridge?California’s Vehicle GHG ControlsCalifornia’s Vehicle GHG Controls
Wrong Directions– Limits market for reductions – one state, one sector
Further isolates Ca vehicles, possibly fuelsDrives ‘leakage’ of emissions outside of CA
– Very likely high $/ton; ignores lower cost approaches– Subject to legal challenges
Questionable benefit– Only shifts emissions?
If electric, GHGs from power generationCombined with CAFÉ (Federal) Standards…– California reductions enable others to emit – No national emission changes result – Californians pay
Wrong DirectionsWrong Directions–– Limits market for reductions Limits market for reductions –– one state, one sectorone state, one sector
Further isolates Ca vehicles, possibly fuelsFurther isolates Ca vehicles, possibly fuelsDrives ‘leakage’ of emissions outside of CADrives ‘leakage’ of emissions outside of CA
–– Very likely high $/ton; ignores lower cost approachesVery likely high $/ton; ignores lower cost approaches–– Subject to legal challengesSubject to legal challenges
Questionable benefitQuestionable benefit–– Only shifts emissions?Only shifts emissions?
If electric, If electric, GHGsGHGs from power generationfrom power generationCombined with CAFÉ (Federal) Standards…Combined with CAFÉ (Federal) Standards…–– California reductions enable others to emit California reductions enable others to emit –– No national emission changes result No national emission changes result –– Californians payCalifornians pay
A Better Bridge For California?A Better Bridge For California?A Better Bridge For California?
2004
Climate-Friendly Vehicle
California
Voluntary “Green Vehicle” Certificate Program?Voluntary “Green Vehicle” Voluntary “Green Vehicle” Certificate Program?Certificate Program?
State sells certificates offsetting vehicle emissionsUses funds to support emissions reducing projects world-wide (or purchases from other credible sources e.g. CDM, PCF, etc)
Multiple Benefits:– Real emissions reductions
Enhances global solutions, cooperationSupports reduced carbon infrastructure deployment
– Market experienceCreates access to low-cost credits Experience/influence in emerging global carbon markets
– Resolves Vehicle GHG program issuesNo legal challengesNo isolation of markets, vehicles, fuels
– Easily DeployedCan be gradually deployed, easily scaledCan utilize existing “Registry” program
State sells certificates offsetting vehicle emissionsState sells certificates offsetting vehicle emissionsUses funds to support emissions reducing projects worldUses funds to support emissions reducing projects world--wide (or wide (or purchases from other credible sources e.g. CDM, PCF, etc)purchases from other credible sources e.g. CDM, PCF, etc)
Multiple Benefits:Multiple Benefits:–– Real emissions reductionsReal emissions reductions
Enhances global solutions, cooperationEnhances global solutions, cooperationSupports reduced carbon infrastructure deployment Supports reduced carbon infrastructure deployment
–– Market experienceMarket experienceCreates access to lowCreates access to low--cost credits cost credits Experience/influence in emerging global carbon marketsExperience/influence in emerging global carbon markets
–– Resolves Vehicle GHG program issuesResolves Vehicle GHG program issuesNo legal challengesNo legal challengesNo isolation of markets, vehicles, fuelsNo isolation of markets, vehicles, fuels
–– Easily DeployedEasily DeployedCan be gradually deployed, easily scaledCan be gradually deployed, easily scaledCan utilize existing “Registry” programCan utilize existing “Registry” program
Business Bridge:A New Energy Business Model? Business Bridge:Business Bridge:A New Energy Business Model? A New Energy Business Model?
From “denial” to active integration into business development
– Inventory– Capital Projects GHG Evaluation– Projections– R&D– New Business development
From “denial” to active integration From “denial” to active integration into business developmentinto business development
–– InventoryInventory–– Capital Projects GHG EvaluationCapital Projects GHG Evaluation–– ProjectionsProjections–– R&DR&D–– New Business developmentNew Business development
Capital Projects GHG Evaluation Flowchart
Early ProjectScoping Stage
Evaluateimpact of GHG
emissions
GHG analysis integral to early examination of
alternatives
GHG analysis of key project alternatives
LessonslearnedLook back
“Small”
“Medium”“Large”
Detailed GHG analysis of
chosen alternative
Capture GHG learnings and
improved processes
“Minimal”
DocumentAnalysisresults
No GHG analysis required
Bridging to a New Energy Business Model Bridging to a New Energy Bridging to a New Energy Business Model Business Model
From short-term to sustainable approaches– Focus on effective resource utilization– Potential shifts in corporate portfolios
Oil to gas to renewables? – Simultaneous creation of economic,
human, and environmental capitalE.g. Close integration of social and environmental programs with new project development
From shortFrom short--term to sustainable term to sustainable approachesapproaches–– Focus on effective resource utilizationFocus on effective resource utilization–– Potential shifts in corporate portfoliosPotential shifts in corporate portfolios
Oil to gas to renewables? Oil to gas to renewables? –– Simultaneous creation of economic, Simultaneous creation of economic,
human, and environmental capitalhuman, and environmental capitalE.g. Close integration of social and E.g. Close integration of social and environmental programs with new environmental programs with new project developmentproject development
Technical Capability Bridge I. From Complicated to Complex(after Kastenberg, UC Berkeley)
Technical Capability Bridge I. Technical Capability Bridge I. From Complicated to ComplexFrom Complicated to Complex(after (after KastenbergKastenberg, UC Berkeley), UC Berkeley)
Complicated
Knowledge of physical worldE.g. Rate of change of atmospheric CO2
Unambiguous and observable effect or output
Local, observable,slow or reversible
ComplicatedComplicated
Knowledge of physical Knowledge of physical worldworldE.g. Rate of change of E.g. Rate of change of atmospheric CO2atmospheric CO2
Unambiguous and Unambiguous and observable effect or observable effect or outputoutput
Local, observable,Local, observable,slow or reversibleslow or reversible
Complex
Chaotic or indeterminatenature of problemE.g. Climate response to
CO2 level
Ambiguous effects,outputs
Regional/global, hard to measure, long term or irreversible
ComplexComplex
Chaotic or indeterminateChaotic or indeterminatenature of problemnature of problemE.g. Climate response to E.g. Climate response to
CO2 levelCO2 level
Ambiguous effects,Ambiguous effects,outputsoutputs
Regional/global, hard to Regional/global, hard to measure, long term or measure, long term or irreversibleirreversible
Uncertainty Uncertainty
AmbiguityAmbiguity
SocietalSocietalImpactImpact
Technical Capability Bridge II. Role ChangesTechnical Capability Bridge II. Technical Capability Bridge II. Role ChangesRole Changes
Engineers/technical contributors– Need to be partners in process vs isolated– Need global knowledge; appreciation of
regional, cultural concerns, approaches and priorities
Suggests changes in engineering curricula to expand skills of engineer– E.g. training to manage shift in application
arena to developing country focusEngineers Without Borders approach
Engineers/technical contributorsEngineers/technical contributors–– Need to be partners in process vs Need to be partners in process vs isolatedisolated–– Need global knowledge; appreciation of Need global knowledge; appreciation of
regional, cultural concerns, approaches regional, cultural concerns, approaches and prioritiesand priorities
Suggests changes in engineering curricula to Suggests changes in engineering curricula to expand skills of engineerexpand skills of engineer–– E.g. training to manage shift in application E.g. training to manage shift in application
arena arena to developing country focusto developing country focusEngineers Without Borders approachEngineers Without Borders approach
Call for a different Engineer?Call for a different Engineer?Call for a different Engineer?
Need to consider other cultures, other approaches, other ethics and values
– Huston Smith Importance of pre-modern ‘traditional’ approaches
– ‘participation’ vs ‘control’ – intuitive vs reductionist– broad vs narrow view
– Dalai Lama Need for ‘engineering heart’
By any model, role changing– from engineering to ‘ecogenuity’?
Need to consider other cultures, other Need to consider other cultures, other approaches, other ethics and valuesapproaches, other ethics and values
–– Huston Smith Huston Smith Importance of preImportance of pre--modern ‘traditional’ modern ‘traditional’ approachesapproaches
–– ‘participation’ vs ‘control’ ‘participation’ vs ‘control’ –– intuitive vs intuitive vs reductionistreductionist–– broad vs narrow viewbroad vs narrow view
–– Dalai Lama Dalai Lama Need for ‘engineering heart’ Need for ‘engineering heart’
By any model, role changingBy any model, role changing–– from engineering to ‘from engineering to ‘ecogenuityecogenuity’?’?
Bridging to a Reduced Carbon Energy FutureBridging to a Reduced Carbon Bridging to a Reduced Carbon Energy FutureEnergy FutureHydrocarbons a likely part of the solution– Strong role for gas
Key opportunities in developing regions and power generationSome immediate GHG reduction opportunities– Flaring example– Growing capture and storage
Hydrocarbons a likely part of the Hydrocarbons a likely part of the solutionsolution–– Strong role for gasStrong role for gas
Key opportunities in developing Key opportunities in developing regions and power generationregions and power generationSome immediate GHG reduction Some immediate GHG reduction opportunitiesopportunities–– Flaring exampleFlaring example–– Growing capture and storageGrowing capture and storage
Bridging to a Reduced Carbon Energy FutureBridging to a Reduced Carbon Bridging to a Reduced Carbon Energy FutureEnergy Future
Need for new governmental and business approaches– Think global– Think long-term
Need for new engineers to address complex global scale issues
Need for new governmental and Need for new governmental and business approachesbusiness approaches–– Think globalThink global–– Think longThink long--termterm
Need for new engineers to address Need for new engineers to address complex global scale issuescomplex global scale issues
Stay Inspired…Stay Inspired…Stay Inspired…
“When you are inspired by some great purpose, some extraordinary project, all your thoughts break their bonds, your mind transcends limitations, your consciousness expands in every direction, and you find yourself in a new, great and wonderful world.
Dormant forces, faculties and talents become alive, and you discover yourself to be a greater person by far than you ever dreamed yourself to be.”
Pantajali, First to Third Century BC
“When you are inspired by some great purpose, “When you are inspired by some great purpose, some extraordinary project, all your some extraordinary project, all your thoughts break their bonds, your mind thoughts break their bonds, your mind transcends limitations, your consciousness transcends limitations, your consciousness expands in every direction, and you find expands in every direction, and you find yourself in a new, great and wonderful yourself in a new, great and wonderful world.world.
Dormant forces, faculties and talents become Dormant forces, faculties and talents become alive, and you discover yourself to be a alive, and you discover yourself to be a greater person by far than you ever dreamed greater person by far than you ever dreamed yourself to be.”yourself to be.”
PantajaliPantajali, First to Third Century BC, First to Third Century BC
Be Patient…Be Patient…
“Do not be desirous of having things done quickly. Do not look at small advantages.
Desire to have things done quickly prevents their being done thoroughly (or well).
Looking at small advantages prevents great affairs from being accomplished.”
Confucius, 551 – 479 BC
“Do not be desirous of having “Do not be desirous of having things done quickly. Do things done quickly. Do not look at small not look at small advantages.advantages.
Desire to have things done Desire to have things done quickly prevents their quickly prevents their being done thoroughly (or being done thoroughly (or well).well).
Looking at small advantages Looking at small advantages prevents great affairs from prevents great affairs from being accomplished.”being accomplished.”
Confucius, 551 Confucius, 551 –– 479 BC479 BC
Keep reaching higher.Keep reaching higher.Keep reaching higher.
“The greater danger for most of us is not that our aim is too high and we miss it…
but that it is too low, and we reach it.”
Michelangelo15th-16th C. AD
“The greater danger for “The greater danger for most of us is not that most of us is not that our aim is too high and our aim is too high and we miss it…we miss it…
but that it is too low, but that it is too low, and we reach it.”and we reach it.”
MichelangeloMichelangelo1515thth--1616thth C. ADC. AD