briefing residential sales april 2015 · 2017. 1. 19. · briefing beijing residential sales april...
TRANSCRIPT
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Image: Wanliu Academy, Haidian district
savills.com.cn/research 01
Briefing Residential sales April 2015
Savills World Research Beijing
Beijing’s first-hand residential market was relatively cool in the first quarter. Transaction volumes achieved around 1.5 million sq m, down 9.0% year-on-year (YoY), while supply plummeted 45% to 900,000 sq m during the same period. Meanwhile, price also registered a 3.7% YoY decline as developers continued to offer rental incentives to digest unsold inventory.
Two new Grade A apartments, coupled with one high-end villa project, entered the sales market, adding a total of 204 units and 29 units to the market respectively.
Grade A apartment transaction volumes fell approximately 50%
quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) to 378 units, while prices appreciated 0.4% QoQ to an average of RMB68,600 per sq m, up 9.2% YoY. The transactions were mainly contributed by the absorption of projects launched over the past 12 months.
High-end villa market transaction volumes fell to 196 units, almost half of that witnessed in the previous quarter. Prices fell around 5% to an average of RMB50,100 per sq m by the end of Q1/2015, still up 6.9% YoY.
Transaction volumes in the first-hand residential market are expected to continue to grow throughout the coming year, largely as a result of the relaxation
“A relaxation of policies by authorities is expected to lead to a growth in transaction volumes for the first-hand residential market in the coming year. Prices, however, are likely to remain stable as buyers continue to remain cautious.” Joan Wang, Savills Research
SUMMARYWhile an influx of supply during the next nine months will see a slow down in absorption rates, high net worth individuals are expected to support price appreciations in the high-end market.
of policies by the government. However, as purchasers continue to err on the side of caution, prices are expected to remain stable across the board.
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Briefing | Beijing residential sales April 2015
PoliciesThe Beijing government continued
to implement policies to revive the
momentum of the slowing property
market in Q1/2015. The latest
moves saw authorities focus on
loosening credit and down payment
requirements for the sector, in
the hope of boosting transaction
volumes.
Significant policies of the quarter
included:
- The Ministry of Finance announced
that homeowners would be exempt
from capital gains tax after having
owned the property for a minimum
of two years. Previously, only homes
that were bought at least five years
ago were exempt from the tax.
- The People’s Bank of China
announced the minimum down
payment for first time home buyers
(units smaller than 90 sq m) using
public housing funds had been
reduced to 20% from the previous
30%.
- News from the Central Bank saw
down payments for second home
buyers applying for a mortgage
slashed from 60% to 40%.
First-hand mass-market overviewThe mass-residential market
was relatively cool in Q1/2015,
with declines in both supply and
transaction volumes. Supply levels
recorded 900,000 sq m during the
quarter, down 45% YoY. In the same
period, transaction volumes reached
around 1.5 million sq m, down 9.0%
YoY. While the government has been
active in implementing incentive
policies, the effects have not been
seen immediately, largely due to
GRAPH 1
First-hand mass-market residential supply, take-up and price index, Q1/2006–Q1/2015
Source: Beijing Real Estate Transaction and Management Bureau, Beijing Municipal Bureau of Statistics, Savills Research
GRAPH 2
First-hand Grade A apartment market supply, take-up and price, Q1/2006–Q1/2015
Source: Savills Research
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Supply (LHS) Absorption (LHS) Price index (RHS)
Figure 2 EN
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RM
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Supply (LHS) Absorption (LHS) Price (RHS)
Units
the traditionally slow season of the
period.
As unsold inventory levels reached
10.4 million sq m by the end of
Q1/2015, up 32% YoY, developers
continued to offer price discounts
to encourage sales. As a result,
prices registered a 3.7% YoY decline
by the end of March. Transaction
volumes in the first-hand residential
market are expected to continue to
grow throughout the coming year,
largely as a result of the relaxation of
policies by the government, therefore
prices are predicted to remain
relatively stable.
First-hand Grade A apartment marketTwo new projects entered the market
in Q1/2015, namely Wanliu Academy
(中赫万柳书院) and Ziyu Mansion (紫玉公馆), both located in Beijing’s
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Briefing | Beijing residential sales
03
April 2015
western market, contributing an
additional 160 and 44 units of Grade
A apartments respectively.
Despite new supply this quarter,
Grade A apartment transaction
volumes fell approximately 50%
QoQ to 378 units. However, this is
only down 1.6% YoY and largely
a result of the traditionally slow
season marked by the Chinese New
Year period. However, supported
GRAPH 3
First-hand high-end villa market supply, take-up and price, Q1/2006–Q1/2015
Source: Savills Research
Figure 3 EN
Page 1
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7,000
14,000
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28,000
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42,000
49,000
56,000
63,000
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RM
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Uni
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Supply (LHS) Absorption (LHS) Price (RHS)
TABLE 1
New high-end apartments, Q1/2015
ProjectZiyu Mansion
(紫玉公馆)Wanliu Academy
(中赫万柳书院)
Location ZGC Wanliu
Developer Hairun Properties SINBO
Pre-sale date Jan 2015 Jan 2015
Pre-sale price(RMB per sq m)
70,000 145,000
Units 44 160
Source: Savills Research
by a steady demand from the
growing number of high net worth
individuals (HNWIs) in the capital
city, transaction prices appreciated
0.4% QoQ to an average of
RMB68,600, up 9.2% YoY.
First-hand high-end villa marketOne high-end villa, Wonderland
Mansion (燕西华府), launched its new phase in Q1/2015, offering 29
units. Despite the new supply, high-
end villa market transaction volumes
fell to 196 units, almost half of that
witnessed in the previous quarter.
However, demand for newer projects
remained strong, with Ocean Palace
(远洋天著) and newly-launched Wonderland Mansion (燕西华府) and Western Art Villa (西山艺境嘉园) recording active transactions.
Transaction prices fell around 5% to
an average of RMB50,100 per sq m
by the end of Q1/2015, up 6.9% YoY.
The remaining three quarters of 2015
is scheduled to see five new high-
end villas enter the sales market,
with the majority of projects posting
proposed prices over RMB100,000
per sq m. Steady demand from
HNWIs is expected to continue to
support price appreciations, however,
take-up is expected to slow as the
market struggles to digest the influx
of new supply.
Residential land marketBeijing land market transaction
volumes decreased 36% YoY
to RMB48.4 billion. Despite the
residential market being relatively
cool over the past year, strong
interest in land acquisition in the
capital city was seen this quarter
as Beijing continues to be one of
the most strategically important
markets. As a result, residential
land plots contributed nearly 60%
of total transaction volumes, with
notable deals including three land
plots located in the Fengtai district,
two of which were acquired through
joint acquisitions for a total price of
RMB17.3 billion.
Other news saw the Beijing City Land
Bureau announce the residential
land supply for the coming year will
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Briefing | Beijing residential sales
04
April 2015
Plot District Planned GFA (sq m)Consideration (RMB billion) Usage
Accommodation value (RMB per sq m) Buyer
West Yalin plot Feingtai 178,615 4.2 Residential zoned plot 28,000China Merchants&China Resource&
Ping’an Real Estate
West Yalin plot Feingtai 159,559 4.5 Residential zoned plot 23,500China Merchants&China Resource&
Ping’an Real Estate
Huaxiang Baipenyao plot Fengtai 418,693 8.6
Residential zoned plot 20,600
Beijing Capital Development&
China Resource&Ping’an Real Estate
Source: Savills Research, Beijing Land Consolidation and Reserve Centre
TABLE 3
Major residential land transactions, Q1/2015
Project Wonderland Mansion (燕西华府)
Location Fengtai
Developer Yicheng Real Estate
Pre-sale date Feb. 2015 (new phase)
Pre-sale price(RMB per sq m)
33,000-48,000
Units 29
Source: Savills Research
TABLE 2
New high-end villas, Q1/2015be 25% less than that witnessed in
the previous year. This is expected
to prevent the market becoming
saturated and is likely to support the
stability of pricing for the coming
year.
Market outlookAlthough Transaction volumes in
the first-hand residential market
are expected to continue to grow
throughout the coming year, largely
as a result of the relaxation of
policies by the government. However,
as purchasers continue to err on the
side of caution, prices are expected
to remain largely stable across the
board. Residential land supply in
2015 will be 25% less than that
witnessed in the previous year,
preventing the market becoming
saturated, and is likely to support
the stability in pricing for the coming
year.
The high-end sector is expected to
see a significant injection of supply
to the market, as four new high-end
apartments combined with five new
high-end villas are scheduled to enter
the sales market in the remaining
three quarters of 2015. The majority
of projects are posting proposed
prices over RMB100,000 per sq m.
Despite steady demand expected
from HNWIs to support price
appreciations, absorption of new
projects is expected to slow due to
the influx of new supply in the next
nine months.
Meanwhile, new areas are expected
to accelerate to maturity with a
number of new high-end residences
scheduled for debut. Areas of
interest include the up-and-coming
Sunhe area, which is located in close
proximity to Beijing’s Central Villa
district. The Dongba area, located
in the Fourth Embassy area of
Beijing, also shows promise, as it is
expected to receive its first batch of
high-end residences in 2H/2015.
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Briefing | Beijing residential sales
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Please contact us for further information Savills Research Savills Residential Sales Savills Beijing Research
& Consultancy
Savills plcSavills is a leading global real estate service provider listed on the London Stock Exchange. The company established in 1855, has a rich heritage with unrivalled growth. It is a company that leads rather than follows, and now has over 600 offices and associates throughout the Americas, Europe, Asia Pacific, Africa and the Middle East.
This report is for general informative purposes only. It may not be published, reproduced or quoted in part or in whole, nor may it be used as a basis for any contract, prospectus, agreement or other document without prior consent. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, Savills accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from its use. The content is strictly copyright and reproduction of the whole or part of it in any form is prohibited without written permission from Savills Research.
James MacdonaldDirector, China+8621 6391 [email protected]
Joan WangDirector+8610 5925 [email protected]
Anthony McQuadeSenior Director+8610 5925 [email protected]
Angela LuAssociate Director+8610 5925 [email protected]
April 2015
TABLE 4
Future supply, 2015-2017E
No. Project (EN) Project (CN) Location Property Type Supply (units) Scheduledlaunch timeProposed price(RMB per sq m)
1 Central Park Plaza 骏豪•中央公园广场 Chaoyang Park Apartment 49 Q2/2015 100,000-150,000
2 Longfor Xichenyuanzhu 龙湖西宸原著 Fengtai Villa 109 Q2/2015 Above 100,000
3 Poly & BCDCLiwan Jiayuan保利首开•丽湾嘉园
(暂定名) Dongba Villa 116 2H/2015 Around 100,000
4 Evergrande Huafu 恒大华府(暂定名) Dongba Apartment TBC 2H/2015 Around 100,000
5 La Croyance 首开琅樾 Sunhe Villa 43 2H/2015 TBC
6 COFCO Rui Fu 中粮瑞府 Sunhe Villa TBC 2H/2015 Above 100,000
7 Kuntai Jiarui Centre Apartment 昆泰嘉瑞中心公寓 Wangjing Apartment TBC 2H/2015 TBC
8 Sino-ocean Liuniangfu Project 远洋刘娘府项目 Shijingshan Villa TBC 2H/2015 TBC
9 Sanlitun No.1 三里屯壹号 Sanlitun Apartment 48 2H/2015 100,000-150,000
10 Kaisa Plaza 佳兆业广场 CBD Apartment 273 2016 150,000
11 Maoyuan Xiajia Hutong Project 懋源夏家胡同项目 Fengtai Apartment TBC 2016 TBC
12 Thaihot Xiju Project 泰禾西局项目 Fengtai Apartment TBC 2016 TBC
11 Donghua Mansion 东华府(城启皇城根项目) North 2nd Ring Road Villa TBC 2016-2017 TBC
12 Xiangheyuan Plot No.3 香河园3号项目2nd Embassy
Area Apartment TBC 2016-2017 TBC
13 Wangfujing Haigangcheng 王府井海港城East Chang’an
Avenue Apartment TBC 2016-2017 TBC
Source: Savills Research