budget 2021 core data presented by the minister of … · 2020. 9. 28. · budget 2021 core data...
TRANSCRIPT
BUDGET 2021CORE DATA
PRESENTED BY THE MINISTER OF FINANCE
ON SEP 28, 2020 AT THESPOTLIGHT ON THE
BUDGET AND ECONOMY
1
7.0 8.9
4.0 4.4 4.0 2.8 3.7 4.4 2.6 2.5 3.0
72.3
99.6
61.7
79.4
94.9 94.1 97.9
93.3
48.7
43.1
49.3
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
US$
pe
r b
arre
l an
d p
er
mm
btu
Oil and Gas Prices2007 – 2017 (Annual Average)
HENRY HUB GAS PRICE ($ PER MMBTU) WTI OIL PRICE ($ PER BARREL)2
8.9 4.0 4.4 4.0 2.8 3.7 4.4 2.6 2.5 3.0 3.2 2.6 1.9
99.6
61.7
79.4
94.9 94.1 97.9
93.3
48.7 43.1
49.3
64.9
56.9
38.1
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Aug-20
US$
pe
r b
arre
l an
d p
er
mm
btu
Oil and Gas Spot Prices2008 – 2020
HENRY HUB GAS PRICE ($ PER MMBTU) WTI OIL PRICE ($ PER BARREL)
Note: 2020 Oil Prices fell 33.3 per cent (y-o-y) to an average of US $38.05 per barrel over the first eight months of the year while gas averaged US $1.86 mmbtu(Economic Bulletin, Central Bank, July 2020)
3
(10.0)
(5.0)
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Per
cen
t (%
)GDP, Inflation and Unemployment
2007 - 2017
GDP REAL GROWTH RATE INFLATION (Y-O-Y) UNEMPLOYMENT RATE(10.0)
(5.0)
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Per
cen
t (%
)GDP, Inflation and Unemployment
2008 – 2020
GDP REAL GROWTH RATE INFLATION (Annual Average) UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (Annual Average)
Data Source: EMD, Ministry of Finance
↗
Estimated
Petrochemical Prices(Ammonia)
Downstream
4
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
De
c-1
4
De
c-1
5
De
c-1
6
De
c-1
7
De
c-1
8
De
c-1
9
US
$ p
er
Metr
ic T
on
ne
Ammonia US$/MT
Actual Collections – Petroleum Taxes & Royalties
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Jun-20
Total SPT 4,604 4,860 4,625 3,271 4,032 4,989 4,977 135 516 440 1,260 403
Total PPT 7,159 8,974 11,104 12,557 10,740 11,980 5,536 901 600 254 2,495 1,068
Total Petroleum Taxes 11,763 13,834 15,729 15,828 14,772 16,969 10,513 1,036 1,116 694 3,755 1,471
Royalties 822 1,820 2,423 2,449 2,380 2,405 1,101 520 939 794 3,392 4,540
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
TT $
Mn
Actual Collection – SPT, PPT & Royalties
5
6
41.341.3
43.241
37 36.1
23
7.6
11.114.1
23.3
15.6
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
45.0
50.0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020re
Oil & Gas Revenue as a % of Total Revenue (2008-2020)
Oil & Gas Revenue as a % of Total Revenue
Oil & Gas Revenue (2007-2020)
Revenue from Taxation (excluding oil & gas) 2008 - 2020
0.0
2,000.0
4,000.0
6,000.0
8,000.0
10,000.0
12,000.0
14,000.0
16,000.0
18,000.0
20,000.0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020RE
MIL
LIO
NS
TT
YEAR
REVENUE FROM TAXATION EXCLUDING OIL & GAS
Taxes on Income & Profits Taxes on Goods & Services Taxes on International Trade
7
Note: Withholding Tax under Taxes on Income & Profits was calculated by the total tax collected minus the industry share of Withholding Tax collected by Oil & Gas exploration and production companies which was 50.65% for FY2020.
Total Revenue (Energy & Non-Energy) 2009-2020 ($B)
22.7
27.5 26.9 26.7 28.4
19.5
7.5 8.1
11.3 14.1
21.0 20.1 22.3
26.0
29.9
37.7 37.4
28.0
33.7 32.5
43.9
47.6 49.3
52.8
58.4 57.3
44.9
36.2
45.0 46.6
33.6
46.7
49.9
53.8
58.8
62.8 60.0
52.9
49.7 48.9 50.5 50.6
5.0
15.0
25.0
35.0
45.0
55.0
65.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Energy Sector Revenue Non-Energy Sector Revenue Total Revenue Expenditure
8
Revenue from Taxation (excluding oil) 2008 - 2020
0.0
5,000.0
10,000.0
15,000.0
20,000.0
25,000.0
30,000.0
35,000.0
40,000.0
45,000.0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019re
Mill
ion
s TT
Year
Revenue from Taxation excluding Oil
Taxes on Income & Profits Taxes on Goods & Services Taxes on International Trade
9
Data Source: Budget Division, Ministry of Finance
10
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Oil Companies 25,657. 11,880. 13,834. 16,022. 15,826. 14,771. 16,969. 10,512. 1,036.4 472.0 2,093.1 3,748.0
Other Companies 7,625.5 5,170.1 6,629.5 9,033.6 8,646.5 9,675.1 10,150. 9,481.2 7,003.1 6,807.7 8,858.4 9,200.0
Total 33283.3 17051.0 20463.9 25056.1 24473.3 24446.9 27120.0 19993.9 8039.5 7279.7 10951.5 12948.0
0.0
2,500.0
5,000.0
7,500.0
10,000.0
12,500.0
15,000.0
17,500.0
20,000.0
22,500.0
25,000.0
27,500.0
30,000.0
32,500.0
35,000.0
Mill
ion
s ($
TT)
Taxes on Incomes & Profits (2008-2019)
Data Source: Budget Division, Ministry of Finance
Central Government Revenue
58,397.0 57,261.5
44,972.6
36,180.643,169.7
46,559.1
33,600.0
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
TT$
Mill
ion
s
Total Revenue and Grants Tax Revenue Non-Tax Revenue
COVID-19↙
(Estimated)
11
Personnel Expenditure ($Mn.)2007-2020
12
6000.0
6500.0
7000.0
7500.0
8000.0
8500.0
9000.0
9500.0
10000.0
10500.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Back Pay
Back Pay
Back Pay
Data Source: Budget Division, Ministry of Finance
2020 LevelEstimated
↘
Heads of Expenditure ($Mn.) 2007-2016
13
Heads of Expenditure (2008-2020)
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20192020
Rev. Est.
Personnel
Expenditure6,946.9 6,620.3 6,711.0 7,179.7 7,282.3 9,171.5 8,590.9 10,077.1 9,601.9 9,937.8 9,094.4 9,137.2 8,983.8
Other Goods
& Services5,002.4 6,023.0 6,441.2 6,504.3 7,061.6 7,180.1 8,008.7 8,105.4 7,326.1 5,827.2 6,102.1 6,426.4 5,259.6
Interest
Payments2,967.3 3,499.9 3,290.3 2,866.4 2,937.1 2,808.7 3,122.6 3,438.4 3,762.4 4,468.4 4,786.8 5,045.5 4,988.9
Current
Transfers &
Subsidies *22,982.0 16,205.9 18,505.1 22,319.8 22,454.7 23,173.5 26,841.9 23,167.4 20,563.5 19,399.3 19,063.0 20,210.3 21,285.5
Capital
Expenditure 9,632.4 8,502.1 6,357.7 6,828.9 7,019.7 8,461.9 8,435.4 7,648.5 4,398.3 3,448.5 3,492.1 3,790.7 4,077.5
*Note: Current Transfers and Subsidies includes subsidies and current transfers and not transfers to Statutory Bodies and similar bodies and Acquisition of Physical Capital Assets
14
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Total Expenditure 46,731 49,853 53,840 58,827 62,839 59,971 52,944 49,712 48,867 50,504 50,600
Transfer & Subsidies 23,930 28,148 28,538 30,340 33,781 30,702 27,856 26,434 25,391 27,293 27,372
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
Exp
end
itu
re in
Mill
ion
s TT
$Transfers & Subsidies as a % of Total Expenditure (2017-2020)
Data Source: Budget Division, Ministry of Finance
Central Government Fiscal Operations
-18,000
-15,000
-12,000
-9,000
-6,000
-3,000
0
3,000
6,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
TT$
Mill
ion
s
TT$
Mill
ion
s
Revenue Expenditure Current Account Balance (right axis) Overall Balance (right axis)
15
16
960 9991,347
1,978
5,896
10,588
7,688
4,623
2,117 2,621
1,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Profits from State Enterprises and Capital Revenue (2008-2020)
Profits from State Enterprises and Capital Revenue
↗Estimated
Data Source: Budget Division, Ministry of Finance
Heritage and Stabilisation Fund
HSF – Net Asset Value(US$ Million)
17
5000
5500
6000
6500
7000
SEP -15 SEP -16 SEP -17 SEP -18 SEP -19 SEP -20
Net Asset Value - US$ Million
COVID-19↙
US$900M withdrawn between February 2020 and August 2020
US$5.5B↙
↗US$5.8B
Source: The Ministry of Finance
International Reserves have fluctuated largely in line with changes in oil prices and the decline in energy exports, but have improved with
drawdowns from the HSF and successful overseas financing
Source: Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago.
18
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
US
$ B
N
YEAR
IMP
OR
T C
OV
ER (
MO
NTH
S)
Dec-15
Dec-16
Dec-17
Dec-18
Dec-19
Sep-20
Gross Official Reserves 9.93 9.46 8.36 7.57 6.93 7.33
Import Cover 11.2 10.5 9.7 8.0 7.7 8.7
Gross Official Reserves vs. Import Cover (2008-2019) Gross Official Reserves Import Cover
Net Public Sector Debt (% of GDP)
2008-2020
19
24
37.5
32.129.7
38.9 38.140.3
46.8
57.762
60.2
65.3
77.6
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019r 2020re
Net Public Sector Debt
MANDATORY EXPENDITURE
TT$ MillionsQuarter 2 Quarter 3
JAN 2020
FEB 2020
MAR 2020
APR 2020
MAY 2020
JUN 2020
Mandatory Expenditure (incl. THA) 3320.48 2877.23 2761.10 3674.87 5281.28 5868.04
Direct Charges 820.26 690.05 559.02 1,388.94 2,426.02 3,124.38Public Debt 479.82 337.10 210.10 1,066.40 2,122.10 2,807.85Pensions & Gratuities 241.57 271.65 255.25 225.05 222.59 227.87Personnel Expenditure 98.87 81.30 93.67 97.50 81.33 88.66
Appropriated Funds 2,322.52 2,009.48 2,024.38 2,119.98 2,689.32 2,577.71Personnel Expenditure (Public Service) 662.00 645.88 627.72 635.47 656.06 648.37Goods & Services 175.48 183.79 152.85 176.41 178.93 169.41
Current Transfers and Subsidies 1,217.73 928.97 970.73 1,054.83 1,313.73 1,338.80Social Grants 406.73 428.33 406.47 494.97 457.82 551.59Debt Servicing 290.00 39.06 19.66 20.10 323.80 17.70Salary Related 521.00 461.58 544.60 514.04 509.72 593.58
Statutory Boards 267.31 250.84 273.08 253.27 540.60 421.13Salary Related 217.80 211.54 242.68 229.37 220.60 245.13Debt Servicing 49.50 39.30 30.40 23.90 320.00 176.00
Tobago House of Assembly 177. 70 177.70 177.70 165.94 165.94 165.94
• Direct Charges are sums ofmoney which, by virtue of theConstitution of Trinidad andTobago can be withdrawnfrom the Consolidated Fundwithout the approval ofParliament and are notincluded in the AppropriationBill.
• Direct Charges include: publicdebt, public service pensionsand gratuities and personnelexpenditure for the Office ofPresident, the Judiciary andDefence Force etc.
• Mandatory AppropriatedFunds include: wages andsalaries, social grants anddebt servicing for StateEnterprises and StatutoryBodies and funding for theTHA.
Ministry of Finance
DISCRETIONARY EXPENDITURE
TT$ Millions
Quarter 2 Quarter 3
JAN 2020
FEB 2020
MAR 2020
APR 2020
MAY 2020
JUN 2020
Discretionary Expenditure 1,490.73 1,129.47 747.43 1,084.49 824.90 1,974.76
Other Goods and Services 740.6 436.01 475.61 357.49 337.80 400.96
Minor Equipment Purchases 6.60 1.01 2.76 1.17 5.18 1.05Current Transfers and
Subsidies 326.3 499.36 142.03 489.68 363.56 1,208.96
Statutory Boards 164.1 149.29 34.16 31.64 34.29 39.95
Capital Expenditure 253.2 43.81 92.87 204.51 84.07 323.84
Ministry of Finance
Preliminary Estimates of the Effect of Covid-19 on European Economies
22