builders outlook 2012.5

16
The new year opened with hope that the 3% growth rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reported for the end of 2011 would lead to stronger job growth and improving housing markets. While January and February offered positive economic news, March and April reporting suggested that unusually warm weather may have accelerated some economic activity at the expense of the spring months. Overall, first-quarter GDP grew at a subpar, seasonally adjusted annual rate of 2.2%. Declining growth in inventory investment and weak nonresidential investment were the primary reasons. Increases in inventory investment boosted GDP growth at the end of 2011 by 1.8 percentage points. In addition, federal government spending also recorded a significant (5.6%) decline. However, the long-term trend remains positive for economic growth. Personal consumption and exports were up for the first quarter of the year. And excluding the inventory adjustment, growth in GDP increased from 1.1% to 1.6% from the last quarter of 2011 to the first quarter of 2012. Nonetheless, the slowdown was consistent with weak employment growth. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported only 115,000 net jobs were added to the economy in April. The unemployment rate ticked down to 8.1%, but this is a “good news is actually bad news" situation: The rate fell because 342,000 people stopped looking for work and left the labor force. Declines like these are bad for household formation and housing demand. Nonetheless, the recent average monthly employment gain stands at 200,000 jobs, so a pickup in GDP should lead to more robust job growth. The BLS March Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey reveals a disconnect worth watching in future months. The job openings rate has increased steadily since the end of the Great Recession. Total job openings totaled only about 1.75% of employment in early 2009. The openings rate is now at 2.7%. However, the hiring rate has experienced only a slight uptick over the same period, increasing from about 3% to 3.3%. An obvious question: If the number of job openings is growing, why have we not experienced a corresponding increase in hiring and thus net job creation? Two possible explanations seem likely. First, there may exist a skills mismatch between jobs needing to be filled and available workers. Second, ongoing problems in the housing market, particularly the ability of new home buyers to obtain affordable credit, may be preventing prospective workers from relocating to accept job opportunities. Despite the recent slowdown, consumer confidence remains steady according to both the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey. In fact, the three-month moving averages of both surveys continue to show dramatic improvement since the third quarter of last year. The recent pause in improving economic conditions has been reflected in recent housing market data. The May NAHB/First American Improving Markets Index fell slightly from a count of 101 to a total of 100 improving markets, according to an evaluation of local residential construction, housing prices and job growth. The index continues to show about one-quarter of all metropolitan areas as improving according to this conservative measure. Total private residential construction spending was, in fact, up slightly (0.7%) during March, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Single-family construction led the way, increasing 3.8% in March, more than offsetting the 1.3% decline from February. Multifamily, which has been the standout for home building in the past year, was down in March by 3.1%, although the February gain was revised up from 2% to 3.6%. However, home improvement slumped for the fourth consecutive month, registering a 1.9% decline. The lack of growth for remodeling spending in recent months is consistent with NAHB survey results. The NAHB Remodeling Market Index fell one point for the first quarter of 2012, falling to 47. Both components of the index, which measure current market conditions and future remodeling activity, fell during the quarter. It seems reasonable to believe that the end of the remodeling tax credit (the section 25C energy-efficient upgrade credit) is in part responsible. Other housing indicators also show a slowing of improvement. For the first quarter of 2012, the Census Bureau reported that the homeownership rate fell to 65.5%, after three quarters of hovering around 66%. House price data from the Case-Shiller and Federal Housing Finance Agency indicate that prices were relatively unchanged for March. Yet there are signs of future growth in housing demand. Perhaps most important is that the National Association of Realtors Pending Home Sales Index for March increased more than 4%, reaching its highest level since the end of the home buyer tax credit period. This level suggests higher rates of existing home sales in the near future. However, builders should be aware of price increases for building materials. In particular, NAHB has been tracking the run-up in gypsum prices and, more recently, lumber prices due to supply issues in Canada. The increase in lumber prices may trigger a reduction in the import tariff. Finally, May is National Remodeling Month. With this in mind, NAHB recently produced research on home improvement issues. The research finds that the existing housing stock is in worse condition that previous estimates suggested and concludes that more than 10 million homes are physically inadequate, twice the total of previous estimates. And NAHB survey data indicates that bathroom and kitchen remodeling projects were the most common home improvement jobs in 2011. Builders utlook years EL PASO BUILDERS ASSOCIATION OF BUILDING EL PASO’S FUTURE SINCE 1946 PRSRT STD U.S. POSTAGE PAID EL PASO TX PERMIT NO. 429 www.elpasobuilders.com www.epbuilders.org 2012/5 Waiting for Stronger Growth NAHB Washington, DC DIGITAL EDITION The El Paso Independent Shcool District awarded the EPAB for our efforts in providing scholarship opportunites for student home designers. Read more about the Yung Designers competition on page 8. Young Designers Scholarship opportunities for our next generation of home designers

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The offical publication of the El Paso Association of Builders

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Page 1: Builders Outlook 2012.5

The new year opened with hope

that the 3% growth rate of Gross

Domestic Product (GDP) reported

for the end of 2011 would lead to

stronger job growth and improving

housing markets. While January and

February offered positive economic

news, March and April reporting

suggested that unusually warm

weather may have accelerated

some economic activity at the

expense of the spring months.

Overall, first-quarter GDP grew at

a subpar, seasonally adjusted

annual rate of 2.2%. Declining

growth in inventory investment and

weak nonresidential investment

were the primary reasons. Increases

in inventory investment boosted

GDP growth at the end of 2011 by

1.8 percentage points. In addition,

federal government spending also

recorded a significant (5.6%)

decline.

However, the long-term trend

remains positive for economic

growth. Personal consumption and

exports were up for the first quarter

of the year. And excluding the

inventory adjustment, growth in

GDP increased from 1.1% to 1.6%

from the last quarter of 2011 to the

first quarter of 2012.

Nonetheless, the slowdown was

consistent with weak employment

growth. The Bureau of Labor

Statistics (BLS) reported only

115,000 net jobs were added to the

economy in April. The

unemployment rate ticked down to

8.1%, but this is a “good news is

actually bad news" situation: The

rate fell because 342,000 people

stopped looking for work and left the

labor force. Declines like these are

bad for household formation and

housing demand. Nonetheless, the

recent average monthly employment

gain stands at 200,000 jobs, so a

pickup in GDP should lead to more

robust job growth.

The BLS March Job Openings

and Labor Turnover Survey reveals

a disconnect worth watching in

future months. The job openings

rate has increased steadily since

the end of the Great Recession.

Total job openings totaled only

about 1.75% of employment in early

2009. The openings rate is now at

2.7%. However, the hiring rate has

experienced only a slight uptick over

the same period, increasing from

about 3% to 3.3%.

An obvious question: If the

number of job openings is growing,

why have we not experienced a

corresponding increase in hiring and

thus net job creation?

Two possible explanations seem

likely. First, there may exist a skills

mismatch between jobs needing to

be filled and available workers.

Second, ongoing problems in the

housing market, particularly the

ability of new home buyers to obtain

affordable credit, may be preventing

prospective workers from relocating

to accept job opportunities.

Despite the recent slowdown,

consumer confidence remains

steady according to both the

Conference Board’s Consumer

Confidence Index and the University

of Michigan Consumer Sentiment

Survey. In fact, the three-month

moving averages of both surveys

continue to show dramatic

improvement since the third quarter

of last year.

The recent pause in improving

economic conditions has been

reflected in recent housing market

data. The May NAHB/First American

Improving Markets Index fell slightly

from a count of 101 to a total of 100

improving markets, according to an

evaluation of local residential

construction, housing prices and job

growth. The index continues to

show about one-quarter of all

metropolitan areas as improving

according to this conservative

measure.

Total private residential

construction spending was, in fact,

up slightly (0.7%) during March,

according to the Bureau of

Economic Analysis. Single-family

construction led the way, increasing

3.8% in March, more than offsetting

the 1.3% decline from February.

Multifamily, which has been the

standout for home building in the

past year, was down in March by

3.1%, although the February gain

was revised up from 2% to 3.6%.

However, home improvement

slumped for the fourth consecutive

month, registering a 1.9% decline.

The lack of growth for remodeling

spending in recent months is

consistent with NAHB survey

results. The NAHB Remodeling

Market Index fell one point for the

first quarter of 2012, falling to 47.

Both components of the index,

which measure current market

conditions and future remodeling

activity, fell during the quarter. It

seems reasonable to believe that

the end of the remodeling tax credit

(the section 25C energy-efficient

upgrade credit) is in part

responsible.

Other housing indicators also

show a slowing of improvement. For

the first quarter of 2012, the Census

Bureau reported that the

homeownership rate fell to 65.5%,

after three quarters of hovering

around 66%. House price data from

the Case-Shiller and Federal

Housing Finance Agency indicate

that prices were relatively

unchanged for March.

Yet there are signs of future

growth in housing demand. Perhaps

most important is that the National

Association of Realtors Pending

Home Sales Index for March

increased more than 4%, reaching

its highest level since the end of the

home buyer tax credit period. This

level suggests higher rates of

existing home sales in the near

future.

However, builders should be

aware of price increases for building

materials. In particular, NAHB has

been tracking the run-up in gypsum

prices and, more recently, lumber

prices due to supply issues in

Canada. The increase in lumber

prices may trigger a reduction in the

import tariff.

Finally, May is National

Remodeling Month. With this in

mind, NAHB recently produced

research on home improvement

issues. The research finds that the

existing housing stock is in worse

condition that previous estimates

suggested and concludes that more

than 10 million homes are physically

inadequate, twice the total of

previous estimates. And NAHB

survey data indicates that bathroom

and kitchen remodeling projects

were the most common home

improvement jobs in 2011.

Builders utlookyears

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www.elpasobuilders.com www.epbuilders.org

2012/5

Waiting forStrongerGrowthNAHB Washington, DC

DIGITAL EDITION

The El Paso Independent Shcool District awarded the EPAB

for our efforts in providing scholarship opportunites for

student home designers. Read more about the Yung

Designers competition on page 8.

Young DesignersScholarship opportunities for our nextgeneration of home designers

Page 2: Builders Outlook 2012.5

2 Builders Outlook 2012/5

Page 3: Builders Outlook 2012.5

April came and went with lots of activity. Let’s not forget the

Texas primary election scheduled for May 29; the 2012 runoff

election will be July 31st. Since the legislative, congressional and

state board of education districts have been redrawn according to

state law, several district lines have moved. To find updated

district information visit www.fyi.legis.state.tx.us Candidates will

be selected for federal, state and local representation. For more

questions on how, when and where to vote yo can visit

www.votetexas.gov

Frank

Arroyos

President,

El Paso Association

of Builders

President’s Message |

El Paso Disposal

772-7495

32012/5 Builders Outlook

Page 4: Builders Outlook 2012.5

This time around I have to say

a few things about a great

group of people who take time

out of their daily lives to give back to

the association. You know them as

fellow members or perhaps a client or

mentor. I know them as all of that and

one more…heroes. I don’t like to use

that word lightly and I would be remiss

if I didn’t say that my gut wrenches

when I hear “hero” used for comic

book characters, ball players, actors

or especially politicians. I will say that

earning a living and in some instances

a large living doesn’t automatically

qualify you as a hero. Belonging to a

profession doesn’t automatically make

you a hero. According to

Dictionary.com the definition of hero

is:

Noun, plural heroes; for 5 also

heroes.

1. a man of distinguished courage or

ability, admired for his brave deeds

and noble qualities.

2. a person who, in the opinion of

others, has heroic qualities or has

performed a heroic act and is

regarded as a model or ideal: He

was a local hero when he saved

the drowning child.

3. the principal male character in a

story, play, film, etc.

4. Classical Mythology.

a. a being of godlike prowess and

beneficence who often came to be

honored as a divinity.

b. (in the Homeric period) a

warrior-chieftain of special

strength, courage, or ability.

c. (in later antiquity) an immortal

being; demigod.

5. hero sandwich.

Now I have to say that the use of

“man” better mean mankind, i.e. men

and women so that I don’t get hate

mail or worse. But clearly the

message here is that someone has to

do something extraordinary like

saving a life, or providing for someone

without expectation of reward.

I’m a fan of American Idol the talent

show. I got upset when the producers

of that show called the finalist

“heroes”. These kids haven’t done

anything heroic, they have used talent

to get into the finals and that’s it thus

far. They are in fact “idolized” by many

and therefore the tag idol is probably

ok to use, but not hero. So I began to

think about our heroes and I quickly

came up with names of those who

give to the association without regard

or expectation of personal gain. The

volunteers who took time to be

involved in the membership drive

really qualify under that definition you

would agree. They are busy,

successful, powerful business people

who give without regard to personal

gain. The 1%ers of our association.

So to all of our volunteers in the

membership drive I would like to act

as the Grand Wizard of this place we

call our OZ, and bestow upon you the

title of “Hero” for meritorious

contribution and enthusiastic support

of the El Paso Association of Builders.

Thank you my heroes. We couldn’t

survive without you.

The editor of any publication,

whether it’s a church bulletin or a

major newspaper or blog must weigh

what content will be presented in the

publication and what his or her

editorial commentary will be. In the

last issue I editorialized on the impact

that happens when someone close

dies. I want to thank those of you who

reached out to say that you

understood the editorial and thanked

me for saying something that they felt

was said in good taste and with good

intentions. I appreciate those kind

words because that’s exactly how I

intended them to be read. Now go

out and get some members and do

some business with the membership.

Perspective |

Ray Adauto,

Executive

Vice President

EPAB

4 Builders Outlook 2012/5

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Page 5: Builders Outlook 2012.5

52012/5 Builders Outlook

Page 6: Builders Outlook 2012.5

6 Builders Outlook 2012/5

Construction is known for employing a

relatively high share of self employed

workers. In fact, according to the 2010

American Community Survey (ACS), the

construction sector registers the second

highest share of self-employed among

all industries, more than 26 percent of

the employed labor force, i.e. more than

one in four construction workers are self

employed. Only agriculture has a higher

share of self-employed, close to 34

percent, while a national average for all

industries stands at 10 percent.

It has always been common for some

builders and remodelers to maintain

relatively small payrolls and rely on

subcontractors for a large share of the

construction work. Interestingly, self-

employment rates in the construction

industry started to rise during the

housing downturn and increased from

24 percent in 2006 to 26 percent in

2010. At the same time a national self-

employment rate fell from 11 to 10

percent, and self employment in

agriculture declined from 41 to 34

percent. Moreover, states known to

have been hit hardest by the housing

downturn – Florida, California, Nevada,

and Arizona – registered some of the

highest jumps in the construction self-

employment rates. According to the

ACS, the share of self-employed

construction workers rose in Arizona

from 16 to 21 percent and in Florida

from less than 24 to 29 percent.

Similarly, the share of self-employed

construction workers increased by more

than 4 percent in Nevada and almost 4

percent in California. It is likely that

during the downturn builders and

remodelers who were no longer able to

maintain a steady work flow may have

tried to manage costs by eliminating

payroll positions and joining the ranks of

the self-employed. It is also possible

that some construction employees laid

off during the downturn were able to

stay in the industry by striking out on

their own.

The 2010 ACS data also show that

five New England states have the

highest shares of self employed

construction workers. Maine, Vermont,

New Hampshire register shares in

excess of 40 percent – 43.1 percent,

41.1 percent, 40.3 percent, respectively

– well above a national average.

Connecticut and Rhode Island follow

with 38.5 and 36.9 percent. Montana

registers the sixth highest construction

self employment rate in the nation, 34.9

percent, i.e. more than one in three

construction workers in Montana are

self-employed. Interestingly, Maine,

Vermont, New Hampshire and Montana

also stand out for having relatively high

shares of residential construction

workers in their state employed labor

force.

Construction self employment

rates are on the rise

Page 7: Builders Outlook 2012.5

Private Residential

Construction

Spending

Increases in March

The Census Bureau’s newest reporton construction spending showed a0.7 percent jump in spending activityon private residential projects inMarch 2012. Initial estimates forJanuary and February were revisedfrom earlier readings of -0.1% and

generally unchanged to an increaseof 0.5% and a drop of 2.2%,respectively. The new single-familycomponent for construction spendinggained 3.8 percent in March, whichmore than offset the 1.3 percentdecline that occurred in February. Ona 3-month moving average basis,however, spending has increased ineach of the last 9 months and is now23 percent above its cyclical lowobserved in mid-2009. While animprovement, and with more room onthe upside given that recent data onbuilding permits point to additionalgrowth in homebuilding activity, still-tight mortgage lending standards andlarge volumes of distressed propertiesin many markets are expected to limitgains over the near term.

New multifamily construction fell 3.1percent in March, though February’sinitial estimate was revised higherfrom a 2 percent gain to a solid 3.6percent increase. The overall trend inmultifamily construction spendingremains positive, as this sector hasincreased in each of the last 12months when viewed on a 3-month

moving average basis. Demand formultifamily units has recoverednoticeably in recent quarters as therental vacancy rate recently fell to itslowest point in more than a decadeand the absorption rate surged to itshighest level since 2005. Permitsauthorized for 5+ unit dwellings haveaveraged approximately 220,000annualized units during the past sixmonths, which suggests continuedstrength for spending on newapartment buildings. The homeimprovement component ofconstruction spending slumped for thefourth consecutive month, declining1.9 percent.

Total construction spendingregistered a very modest 0.1 percentgain from February as the gains inprivate residential and privatenonresidential were offset by anotherweak reading on public sectorconstruction spending. Officebuildings and manufacturing facilitiesaccounted for the bulk of March’simprovement for the nonres sector,but the level of spending on officebuildings remains low as vacancyrates remain just below their cyclicalpeaks. The power and manufacturingsectors have been the key sources ofsupport for nonresidential constructionactivity over the past year. Publicsector construction outlays fell 1.1percent in March, with weakerreadings for all the major categories.On a year-to-date basis, public sectoroutlays on construction have declined2.6 percent

Consumer

Confidence Holds

Steady in AprilThe Conference Board’s Consumer

Confidence Index (CCI) and theUniversity of Michigan ConsumerSentiment Survey both pointed toconsumer confidence remaininggenerally unchanged between Marchand April 2012. Nonetheless, viewingthe overall indexes from both surveysusing a 3-month moving average, onecan still see an appreciable increasein consumer confidence since thethird quarter of last year. The currentand expected conditions indexes foreach survey moved in oppositedirections this month, but once againconsumers are tending to viewcurrent economic conditions and theirexpectations for conditions 6 monthshence more optimistically.

Consumers’ perceptions of the labormarket have also shown signs ofimprovement. Although the pace ofnet payroll growth slowed to 120,000in March, the average monthly paceduring the first quarter reached itshighest level since 2006. A majority ofrespondents to the CCI stillcharacterize jobs as “not so plentiful”,but at the same time the share ofconsumers reporting that jobs were“hard to get” dropped to its lowestreading since late 2008.Unfortunately, consumers stillmaintain a cautious eye towardmaking a home purchase; while therelative buying conditions areconsidered strong, thanks to softerpricing and extremely low mortgagerates, less than 1% of the CCI’srespondents plan to buy a new homewithin the next 6 months.

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Page 8: Builders Outlook 2012.5

YoungDesigners

The 2012 Young Designers compe-tition for scholarship drew 11 entriesfrom the El Paso Independent SchoolDistrict this year. Instructor CeciliaOrozco brought the students plansand models to be judged by ourexperts and once again the marginbetween first and second place wasless than 8 points out of a potential500 perfect score. Scholarships forfirst place were $1500 while secondwas $750 and third was $500. All themoney is forwarded to the universityor school to which the students willenroll at for use in help with tuition,books, or computers. This is theninth anniversary of the YoungDesigner scholarship. John Chaneyheads up the YD committee. Theassociation also partners with the ElPaso Community Foundation for thisevent. Bonita Johnson from theFoundation visited and looked overthe work of the students. “I have totell you that I am just amazed at thework these students did and the intri-cate work and plans,” Ms. Johnsonsaid. “I had no idea how or what theassociation was looking at for thescholarship, but I can assure you thisisn’t just an essay, this is work!” Wewould like to acknowledge our judgesKelly Sorenson, Ryan Harding,Robert Baeza and Bob Paschich.

Winners of the 2012 YoungDesigner competition and scholar-ship are: 1st place ($1500) AdalbertoCoronel; 2nd place ($750) ErickAvila; 3rd place ($500) AlexanderCandee.

View more photos on our facebook page: elpasobuildersassociation

Builders utlook on the scene |

Page 9: Builders Outlook 2012.5

Board meets anddemos new rides

The May Board of Directors was held at the

Association offices on May 9. While regular busi-

ness was discussed the meeting was capped by a

presentation from Rudolph Chevrolet. Mike Ruffin,

commercial sales manager brought several

equipped trucks for demonstration, while Rick

Armijo, Corvette Specialist, brought the 2013

Corvette. The rainy morning dampened the burn

out attempts but some of the board took advantage

of special pricing and demos. Kelly Sorenson and

Edmundo Dena both commented on the demon-

stration. “I have been wanting to drive the new

Vette for a while and this was a perfect opportuni-

ty,” Kelly said. Edmundo added that he too had

often thought it would be fun to drive a Corvette.

“Honestly when Frank Torres took the wheel first I

was hooked, because you find out quickly that it’s

everything you ever thought it should be and more,”

he said. Meanwhile Rudy Guel was all business as

he scoped out the new trucks. “With the pricing and

special GM NAHB offer it’s a deal hard to pass up,”

Rudy said. Our thanks to our GM NAHB Preferred

GM dealer Rudolph Chevrolet for sponsoring our

board meeting.

2012/5

Page 10: Builders Outlook 2012.5

Lumber Prices

Moving Higher,

SLA Could

Become a Factor

A mill fire in British Columbia sentlumber prices higher, adding to a numberof supply side developments that movedthe Random Lengths Framing LumberComposite Price (FLCP) to $316 onFriday. This price, if maintained, wouldtrigger provisions in the US-CanadianSoftwood Lumber Agreement (SLA)reducing tariffs on imports of Canadianlumber. An average price above the $315limit for the period from April 20 to May 11would result in reduced tariffs for themonth of June.

The mill fire, the second this year,coupled with already lean inventorieshelped push up the FLCP which hasclimbed steadily from a low of $252 inearly November 2011. But the fire, theresult of wood dust from the harvesting ofbeetle killed timber, also renewed focuson the longer term supply implications ofthe bug kill. One study estimates theBritish Columbia Interior timber supplycould be reduced by one third over thenext 20 years.

On the demand side, a slow butimproving US housing recovery,combined with slower but still stronggrowth in China will keep upwardpressure on lumber prices.

But some downward pressure onlumber prices, in addition to the possibletariff reductions, could come fromRussia’s entry into the World TradeOrganization. Membership is expected toincrease competitiveness throughreduced tariffs on Russian lumberexports, increasing exports to China andEuropean markets. Theoretically, thiswould ease price pressures in the USmarket, but procedural issues ofimplementation could delay this effect.

10 Builders Outlook 2012/5

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915-478-2404

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Page 11: Builders Outlook 2012.5

112012/5 Builders Outlook

March data from the Job Openings

and Labor Turnover Survey indicate a

noticeable slowdown in construction

sector hiring. Evidence suggests that

this slowdown is more likely related to

unusually warm weather and not

underlying economic factors.

For the economy as a whole, hiring

rates have remained basically flat

since the beginning of 2010. This is

reflected in recent payroll

employment reports that show weak

levels of monthly job creation. At

3.3%, the March hiring rate

represents the 14th consecutive

month of hiring falling in a narrow

band ranging from 3.1% to 3.3% of

total employment.

The job openings rate (the red line

below) increased to 2.7% in March,

the highest rate of job openings since

the middle of 2008. Since the end of

the Great Recession, the rate of job

openings has had an upward trend

and is a cause for optimism about

household formations and housing

demand in the medium term.

An important question is raised by

these data. Why is the number of

open positions rising, but the level of

job hiring relatively flat?

It is possible that a skills mismatch

exists between jobs in supply and

available workers. It may also be the

case that without a healthy housing

market, the job market itself cannot

function efficiently. This can occur if

credit for homebuyers is too tight

(particularly first-time homebuyers

who form new households), if existing

homeowners cannot sell their homes

to relocate for employment reasons,

and/or if rental housing cannot be

developed for areas with rising labor

demand. And if people cannot

relocate easily, then open positions

do not transform into hires.

For the construction sector, the

March JOLTS data indicate a

significant decline in hiring, falling

from 318,000 hires in February to

286,000 in March. However, the

February number was upwardly

revised, and it is possible the decline

in March was due to accelerated

hiring in February due to unusually

warm weather for much of the nation.

Nonetheless, March was the first

month in over a year for which the

level of hiring for the construction

sector fell below 300,000.

Perhaps more reflective of

fundamental economic conditions,

the number of open positions in the

construction sector increased

somewhat in March. The number of

open positions in the sector increased

to 96,000, the highest level since

September of last year.

For the first quarter of 2012, per the

JOLTS data, net hiring for the

construction sector stood at 28,000

positions. While disappointing given

initial hopes for 2012, the first quarter

stills stands favorably compared to all

of 2011, for which net hiring for the

sector totaled 67,000 for the entire

year (although it was the first year of

net job creation for construction since

2006).

Narrowing in on the residential

construction sector, per the BLS

Current Employment Statistics data,

total employment for April stands at

2.038 million (566,000 builders and

1.472 million in associated trades).

Total net job losses from the peak of

employment (April 2006) fell slightly in

April to 1.41 million.

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Construction Jobs: Hiring Down but Open Positions Rising

Page 12: Builders Outlook 2012.5

12 Builders Outlook 2012/5

Over the past years, my

office has worked on many

issues relating to Medicare.

The most public had to do with

Medicare Advantage Plan agents

improperly soliciting seniors. I

passed a bill that pretty much put a

stop to that.

Everyone knows that Medicare is

one of many programs that give

seniors and certain disabled persons

the security health blanket they need

to live. If every penny of Medicare

went specifically to the intended

health care, I don’t believe there

would ever be a crisis of funding.

An article on the CNN website

caught my eye about that very

subject. According to the article,

funding for Medicare will fall short

and only about 87% of full costs will

be paid starting in 2024. It gets

worse by 2050 when Medicare will

only pay 67% of full costs.

There are some obvious options

such as cutting more

reimbursements for the highest

income patients or raising the payroll

deduction from 2.9% to 4.25%. The

farther you are away from

retirement, the less attractive the

latter alternative becomes. But it

should seriously be considered.

Imagine the problem of indigent care

for seniors or disabled if the

reimbursements from Medicare drop

substantially.

One thing that is never, ever

discussed is the cost of having

Medicare on the open market. The

amount that insurance companies

make from Medicare must be

substantial. The evidence is

everywhere, especially during the

open enrollment period.

How many times have you seen

advertising where the secret to a

fulfilled life is to get the latest

roundabout scooter; and it is all free

because Medicare pays for it. The

year round advertising by these

companies for "free" scooters is also

paid by Medicare. No, there is no

form to fill out to get reimbursed by

Medicare, but the costs are

embedded in the cost for the

scooter.

Shouldn’t a Medicare expense be

determined by a doctor? When the

application for one of those scooters

goes in to the company and then to

the feds, does anyone check to see

if it would be in the best interest for

the applicant; or, perhaps it might be

better for them to do more walking?

Not to be overshadowed, there are

the Advantage Plans which take a

federally funded and managed

system and makes it a market driven

system. When a program is market

driven, the first thing that has to

happen is to establish a gross profit

margin. This margin, usually

between around 30 to 35%, does

absolutely nothing for those who

depend on the Medicare

reimbursements for their health.

This margin provides the money for

all business expenses needed to

market the Medicare Plans. And boy

are there costs.

Have you ever seen the slick

mailers that are mailed multiple

times and by multiple companies to

prospects? People who design,

write drafts, proof read drafts and

print the mailer all make big time

bucks.

The marketed products are further

promoted by agents who perhaps

themselves have marketing people

who target potential customers. The

commissions paid for securing

patients are not trivial.

What I have shared with you is just

the tip of the iceberg. They tell us

that the free market is the best place

for Medicare. What they don’t tell us

is how much of Medicare dollars

sustain private companies.

Perspective |

ChenteQuintanillaState

Representative Medicare funding crisis and the free market

Page 13: Builders Outlook 2012.5

MAY 22-23

MEMBERSHIP DRIVE

EPAB OFFICE

JuNE 6

ASSOCIATES MEETING

3:30

EPAB OFFICE

JuNE 13

11:00 BOARD MEETING

12:00 NOON GENERAL MEETING

EL PASO CLuB

CHASE BANK BLDG. (DOWN-

TOWN)

JuNE 28-29

TAB MEETING

AuSTIN, TEXAS

Membership News

Thanks to our

MAY

SODA  SPONSOR:

WestStar Bank

RENEWALSArea Iron & Steel Works, Inc.

Aztec Contractors

Century 21 APD Associates

Code Compliance Inspections,PC

Eyesite Surveillance, Inc.

Franklin Door & Trim

Icon Custom Home Builder

Kwal Paint Co.

Majestic Realtors

PLC Construction Finishes

Soutwest Land Development

Services

SODA SPONSOR

years

E L PA S o

BUILDERSA S S o C I A T I o n o F

B U I L D I N G E L PA S O ’ S F U T U R E S I N C E 194 6

11395 James Watt, Suite A-11 79936915-633-8002

132012/5 Builders Outlook

www.elpasobuilders.com www.epbuilders.org

UPCOMING EVENTS |

For the latest updates &event information, visit:

elpasobuilders.com

Page 14: Builders Outlook 2012.5

Hey guys and gals, another month has

come and the year is off to a flying start. We

have been bowling and golfing and it is just

four and a half months into 2012.

Speaking of golfing we are working on a

real golf outing with a pro on each team.

Don’t get too excited as we have to work out

the details with our friends at Painted Dunes.

John Chaney, Ray and I will be meeting with

them soon to set the date and format. This

tournament will require an official USGA

handicap, so if you are a golfer you can get

one at any course in the area by paying

$25.00 for one year and turning in five

scores. This promises to be a big time event

with some very nice prizes for the first three

place teams.

What would you guys say to another

Bowling tournament in say November when it

is cold outside and warm inside except for the

cold beer?

I would like to have an associates meeting

on Wednesday, June 6, 2012 at 3:30 if this

works for everyone. Please bring any ideas

or items that you would like to discuss at this

meeting.

enterprise profitably and gain a

competitive edge in the marketplace.

Sessions include strategic planning,

marketing, analyzing financial statements,

finance, importing and exporting, and

business and contract law. Classes meet

every Tuesday and Thursday for 13 weeks.

Registration is $375.

Call the SBDC at (915) 831-7742 or visit

www.elpasosbdc.biz for more information.

“Small businesses are the backbone of our

economy and the cornerstones of our

communities. They create two of every three

new jobs in America, spur economic growth,

and spark new industries across the country.”

President Barack Obama

Many small businesses depend on the

homebuilding industry, and many new

industries are sparked by the homebuilding

business. Building homes usually requires

services which can include contractors,

lenders, roofers, plumbers, landscapers,

and businesses that sell furniture, fixtures,

and appliances. The Small Business

Development Center (SBDC) at El Paso

Community College (EPCC) has been

helping build and strengthen the

businesses that are connected to

homebuilding. This in turn continues to

strengthen the job market, encourage

potential homebuyers to the homebuilding

industry, and improve the small business

community.

The SBDC, the largest management and

technical assistance program in the United

States, enhances the development of small

business enterprises through counseling,

technical assistance and training services.

Last year the El Paso Small Business

Development Center helped create over

400 jobs in El Paso and Hudspeth County.

Many of these jobs came from a large

number of small businesses that are

connected to the homebuilding industry.

The SBDC assisted many of these

businesses start or expand their services.

Henry Benning from Henry Benning

Construction was assisted by the SBDC

and successfully secured three (3)

separate SBA guaranty loans over a period

of five years. “I don’t know what I or my

firm would do without the assistance of the

SBDC,” said Benning.

As small businesses face the challenge

of economic survival in this difficult

economic climate, the services of the

SBDC are making a difference in the

residential construction industry. The

programs and seminars deliver solid

solutions for business growth and utilize

the expertise of industry and business

professionals.

Beginning Tuesday, June 5th, the SBDC

will begin “The Small Business

Management Institute” (SBMI) series

training program. SBMI is designed to

enhance the participant’s knowledge and

skills in strategic planning and

management. It allows the participants to

begin and/or grow their business

enterprise profitably and gain a competitive

edge in the marketplace. Sessions include

strategic planning, marketing, analyzing

financial statements, finance, importing

and exporting, and business and contract

law. Classes meet every Tuesday and

Thursday for 13 weeks. Registration is

$375. Call the SBDC at (915) 831-7742 or

visit www.elpasosbdc.biz for more

information.

Showroom: 2131 Missouri

915 • 533 • 6045 fax • 533• 6096

Thomas R. Brown, Owner

14 Builders Outlook 2012/5

Sam ShallenbergerWestern Wholesale Supply

Small Business

Associates Council

Small BusinessDevelopmentCenter

Special to Builders Outlook by Audrey A. Marufo, El Paso Community College

Page 15: Builders Outlook 2012.5

� execuTive oFFicerS

Frank Arroyos - President

Cisco Homes

edmundo Dena - vice President

Accent Homes

Frank Torres - Secretary/Treasurer

GMF Custom Homes

Sam Shallenberger - Associates council

Western Wholesale Supply

Greg Bowling - immediate Past President

Tropicana Homes

ray Adauto - executive vice President

El Paso Association of Builders

� couNciL/commiTTee cHAirS

Affordable Builders council

Bobby Bowling IV

Associates council

Sam Shallenberger

Build PAc

Randy Bowling

Desert Green Building council

Javier Ruiz

industry Promotions

Greg Bowling

Land use council

Vacant

Young Designer Award

John Chaney

remodelers council

Rudy Guel

membership Drive

Mike Santamaria

Finance committee

Kathy Carrillo

education committee

Frank Spencer

� ADviSorY To THe BoArD

J. Crawford Kerr, Attorney, Firth, Johnson

& Martinez

� BoArD oF DirecTorS

Joe Bernal, Joe Bernal Insurance

Doug Borrett, Karam Co.

Kathy Carrillo, Pioneer Bank

John Chaney, Passage Supply

Sergio Cuartas, BIC Homes

Ted Escobedo,Snappy Publishing

Art Garcia, El Paso Door

Juanita Garcia, ICON Custom Home Builders,LLC

Samira Gonzalez, Edwards Homes

Lorraine Huit, Cardel Design Group

Walter Lujan, Dawco Home Builders

Sal Masoud, Del Rio Engineering

Bruce Meyer, JDW Insurance

Edgar Montiel, Palo Verde Homes

Kathy Parry, Hunt Communities

Javier Ruiz, Senercon & Border Solar

Frank Spencer, Aztec Contractors

Henry Tinajero, Bank of the West

Linda Troncoso, TRE & Associates

Ken Wade, El Paso Building Materials

Adam Winkler, MTI Ready Mix

Paul Zacour, Zacour & Associates

2011 Builder member of The Year

Greg Bowling

Tropicana Homes

20110 Pat cox Award

Kathy Parry

Hunt Communities

2011 Associate of The Year

Sam Shallenberger

Western Wholesale Supply

John Schatzman Award

Bob Bowling III

Tropicana Homes

ePAB Special Award

Rudy Guel

Guel Construction

Honorary Life members

Brad Roe

Cliff Anthes

Wayne Grinnell

Chester Lovelady

Don Henderson

Anna Gil

Past Presidents

committed to Serve

ePAB mission Statement:

The El Paso Association of Builders is a

federated professional organization representing

the home building industry, committed to

enhancing the quality of life in our community by

providing affordable homes of excellence and

value.

The El Paso Association of Builders is a

501C(6) trade organization.

© 2012 Builder’s Outlook

is published and distributed for the

El Paso Association of Builders

by Snappy Publishing

240 Thunderbird • Suite C

El Paso • Texas • 79912 915-820-2800

6046 Surety Dr. El Paso, TX 79905

915-778-5387 • Fax: 915-772-3038

Kelly Sorenson

Mark Dyer

Mike Santamaria

John Cullers

Randy Bowling

Doug Schwartz

Robert Baeza

Bobby Bowling, IV

Rudy Guel

Anna Gil

Bradley Roe

Bob Bowling, III

E. H. Baeza

� TAB STATe DirecTorS

Doug Borrett, Karam Co., Life Director

Randy Bowling, Tropicana Homes

� NATioNAL DirecTorS

Bobby Bowling IV.

Demetrio Jimenez

NATioNAL ASSociATioN oF

Home BuiLDerS

(800) 368-5242

TexAS ASSociATioN oF

BuiLDerS

(800)252-3625

years

E L P A S O

BUILDERSA S S O C I A T I O N O F

B U I L D I N G E L PA S O ’ S F U T U R E S I N C E 194 6

www.elpasobuilders.com www.epbuilders.org

Builders utlook

Page 16: Builders Outlook 2012.5