builders outlook 2013 issue 6

17
Builders utlook www.elpasobuilders.com www.epbuilders.org 2013 issue 6 From Greater El Paso Chamber of Commerce, edited by Ray Adauto On June 25th General Ray Odierno, Chief of Staff of the Army, announced the results of the Army’s 2020 Force Structure Realignment, which will reduce the Army’s Active Component end-strength from the 570,000 soldiers currently serving to 490,000 by 2017. In January of this year, the El Paso community was made aware of the Army’s Programmatic Environmental Assessment (PEA) which was considering possible cuts and realignments among 23 of the Army’s bases, including Fort Bliss. Since then, the Chamber (led by our strong volunteer leadership), has relentlessly advocated on behalf of Fort Bliss and the regional military community . Through visits to the Pentagon and elected leadership on Capitol Hill, the Chamber has touted the exceptional qualities that make Fort Bliss the premier installation in the Department of Defense. The Chamber was also given the opportunity to host a Listening Session in April, which was attended by Army officials who were charged with assessing each of the 23 installations and their neighboring communities. The Chamber utilized the Listening Session to highlight the billions of dollars of investments made by the community in transportation, education, healthcare, housing, and quality of life to support the growth of Fort Bliss. Thus, after months of waiting General Odierno announced that Fort Bliss was one of ten Army bases in the United States which will have a brigade combat team deactivated by 2019. The Chamber is proud to say that although Fort Bliss will be losing a Brigade Combat Team (3-1 AD) and a net loss of 750 soldiers, it will remain an essential power projection platform for the Army and will be minimally impacted by the overall Force Structure Realignment. In his announcement, General Odierno also warned that the Army’s Force Structure Realignment may only be the first of additional cuts the Army must make in order to meet budget requirements, if sequestration continues into the next fiscal year. Under such fiscally challenging circumstances, it is important for the business community to not only understand how the local economy will be impacted by these changes, but also that our troops need community support now more than ever. Through these challenging times, the Chamber remains committed to Fort Bliss and will continue to support our regional military installations through proactive advocacy and outreach efforts. On June 27 the United States Air Force chose Fort Bliss as a major training center location for security forces that will be deployed around the world. In the announcement USAF will bring between 8,000 to 10,000 airmen through the training that ranges from 10 days to 60 days in duration. At the end of each session graduation will bring in visiting family members as well . The move to Fort Bliss was anticipated but other communities, like San Antonio, lost out. Fort Bliss is the premier DOD facility in the world with over $7 billion invested over the last five years. Fort Bliss housing: good or bad for local builders/developers? A recent meeting with the US Army Garrison Command left questions for the private sector on whether the future of single family and multifamily construction will be positively or negatively impacted. Most of the members in attendance felt that it will be negative given the statistics presented and the need for the Army’s principal contractor, Balfour Beatty, continue to build inside the wire. Joined at the meeting held at the Greater El Paso Chamber of Commerce by the El Paso Apartment Association, commercial real estate companies and Chamber members, attendees listened to Garrison Commander Dayley report on what to expect at Bliss over the next few years. “We continue to look at upgrading the housing for family and single soldiers by constructing housing inside the post,” Dayley told the audience. “We are particularly interested in west Bliss and modernizing housing along US 54 near the golf course and building new single soldier barracks (apartments) for them near our Freedom Crossing,” he continued. The apartment builders and associates were concerned that statistics being presented on the occupancy rates were old and not accurate. “What we think is that the Army needs to be giving correct numbers, otherwise it looks to outside interests like we are short on apartments, while that is not reality,” said Ray Baca local apartment management member. The presentation says that there is a 93% occupancy rate while the apartment managers present said 88-89% is the reality. “We were told to b uild for the incoming troops back five years ago, and private sector did that anticipating a return on investment,” Baca continued. “What we are seeing is an oversupply now as troops are transitioning in and out quicker. Now the Army is going to compete with us for the market share and that’s troubling,” he continued. Single family housing also has not taken off with the military a s anticipated. In the past the makeup of the troops was different when the Air Defense School was at Bliss. The troops now coming in are much younger and single, mostly not ready or able to purchase a home while stationed at Fort Bliss. “We are seeing much more sales of rims and big screens than we are of houses,” said Edmundo Dena, President of th e associa tion. “The rea lity is that these younger troops need to partner up in an apartment so they can deploy and return without the cost of a home purchase,” he continued. Even transitional housing for Senior Soldier Unaccompanied Housing (SUH) for E-6 and above will see a new complex with 260 units at market rate rents. This housing is targeting students assigned to SNCO and officers coming to Bliss unaccompanied. In other words apartments for non-family moves to Bliss for training, education (SSgt Major School) or assignment. This will directly impact area apartment rentals, especially those in North East and west of the post. The post plans to add about 800 homes to their current 3600 inventory by end of 2016. They are also planning to sell off 1635 acres of land near Montana Avenue and Loop 375, plus an additional 94 acres near the old Beaumont. Army Force Structure Realignment: Understanding the impact to local business community This image was originally posted to Flickr by DVIDSHUB

Upload: tedescobedo

Post on 03-Apr-2018

213 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

7/28/2019 Builders Outlook 2013 Issue 6

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/builders-outlook-2013-issue-6 1/16

Builders utlook

www.elpasobuilders.com www.epbuilders.org

2013

issue 6

From Greater El Paso Chamber of

Commerce, edited by Ray Adauto

On June 25th General Ray Odierno,Chief of Staff of the Army, announced the

results of the Army’s 2020 Force StructureRealignment, which will reduce the Army’sActive Component end-strength from the570,000 soldiers currently serving to490,000 by 2017.

In January of this year, the El Pasocommunity was made aware of the Army’sProgrammatic Environmental Assessment(PEA) which was considering possible cutsand realignments among 23 of the Army’sbases, including Fort Bliss. Since then, theChamber (led by our strong volunteerleadership), has relentlessly advocated onbehalf of Fort Bliss and the regional militarycommunity. Through visits to the Pentagonand elected leadership on Capitol Hill, theChamber has touted the exceptionalqualities that make Fort Bliss the premier

installation in the Department of Defense.The Chamber was also given theopportunity to host a Listening Session inApril, which was attended by Army officialswho were charged with assessing each ofthe 23 installations and their neighboringcommunities. The Chamber utilized theListening Session to highlight the billions ofdollars of investments made by thecommunity in transportation, education,healthcare, housing, and quality of life tosupport the growth of Fort Bliss.

Thus, after months of waiting GeneralOdierno announced that Fort Bliss was oneof ten Army bases in the United Stateswhich will have a brigade combat teamdeactivated by 2019. The Chamber is

proud to say that although Fort Bliss will belosing a Brigade Combat Team (3-1 AD)and a net loss of 750 soldiers, it will remainan essential power projection platform forthe Army and will be minimally impacted bythe overall Force Structure Realignment.

In his announcement, General Odiernoalso warned that the Army’s ForceStructure Realignment may only be the firstof additional cuts the Army must make inorder to meet budget requirements, ifsequestration continues into the next fiscalyear. Under such fiscally challengingcircumstances, it is important for thebusiness community to not onlyunderstand how the local economy will beimpacted by these changes, but also thatour troops need community support nowmore than ever. Through thesechallenging times, the Chamber remainscommitted to Fort Bliss and will continue tosupport our regional military installationsthrough proactive advocacy and outreachefforts.

On June 27 the United States Air Forcechose Fort Bliss as a major training centerlocation for security forces that will bedeployed around the world. In theannouncement USAF will bring between8,000 to 10,000 airmen through the trainingthat ranges from 10 days to 60 days induration. At the end of each sessiongraduation will bring in visiting familymembers as well. The move to Fort Bliss

was anticipated but other communities, likeSan Antonio, lost out. Fort Bliss is thepremier DOD facility in the world with over$7 billion invested over the last five years.

Fort Bliss housing:good or bad for localbuilders/developers?

A recent meeting with the US ArmyGarrison Command left questions for theprivate sector on whether the future ofsingle family and multifamily construction

will be positively or negatively impacted.Most of the members in attendance felt thatit will be negative given the statisticspresented and the need for the Army’sprincipal contractor, Balfour Beatty,continue to build inside the wire.

Joined at the meeting held at the GreaterEl Paso Chamber of Commerce by the ElPaso Apartment Association, commercialreal estate companies and Chambermembers, attendees listened to GarrisonCommander Dayley report on what toexpect at Bliss over the next few years.“We continue to look at upgrading thehousing for family and single soldiers byconstructing housing inside the post,”

Dayley told the audience. “We areparticularly interested in west Bliss andmodernizing housing along US 54 near thegolf course and building new single soldierbarracks (apartments) for them near ourFreedom Crossing,” he continued.

The apartment builders and associateswere concerned that statistics beingpresented on the occupancy rates were oldand not accurate. “What we think is that theArmy needs to be giving correct numbers,otherwise it looks to outside interests likewe are short on apartments, while that isnot reality,” said Ray Baca local apartment

management member.The presentation says that there is a

93% occupancy rate while the apartmentmanagers present said 88-89% is thereality. “We were told to build for theincoming troops back five years ago, andprivate sector did that anticipating a returnon investment,” Baca continued. “What weare seeing is an oversupply now as troopsare transitioning in and out quicker. Nowthe Army is going to compete with us forthe market share and that’s troubling,” hecontinued.

Single family housing also has not takenoff with the military as anticipated. In thepast the makeup of the troops was different

when the Air Defense School was at Bliss.The troops now coming in are muchyounger and single, mostly not ready orable to purchase a home while stationed atFort Bliss. “We are seeing much moresales of rims and big screens than we areof houses,” said Edmundo Dena, Presidentof the association. “The reality is thatthese younger troops need to partner up inan apartment so they can deploy andreturn without the cost of a homepurchase,” he continued. Eventransitional housing for Senior SoldierUnaccompanied Housing (SUH) for E-6

and above will see a new complex with 260units at market rate rents. This housing istargeting students assigned to SNCO andofficers coming to Bliss unaccompanied.In other words apartments for non-familymoves to Bliss for training, education (SSgtMajor School) or assignment. This willdirectly impact area apartment rentals,especially those in North East and west ofthe post.

The post plans to add about 800 homesto their current 3600 inventory by end of2016. They are also planning to sell off1635 acres of land near Montana Avenueand Loop 375, plus an additional 94 acresnear the old Beaumont.

Army Force Structure Realignment:Understanding the impact to local business community

This image was originally posted to Flickr by DVIDSHUB

7/28/2019 Builders Outlook 2013 Issue 6

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/builders-outlook-2013-issue-6 2/16

2 Builders Outlook 2013 issue 6

THINK OF US AS PART OF YOUR SALES TEAM.

No doubt about it, when you build homes and businesses that are natural gas ready, they’re

instantly more attractive to customers.

Natural gas furnaces, water heaters and clothes dryers offer greater efficiency and lower

operating costs than their electric counterparts, and natural gas kitchens sell themselves.

Let us help you use natural gas to turn prospects into buyers. For more information, contact

Eduardo Lucero at [email protected] or (915) 680-7216.

Texas Gas Service provides natural gas to more than 620,000 customers in the state of Texas, including customers in Austin, El Paso, the Gulf Coast and the Rio Grande Valley. Texas Gas Service is a division of ONEOK, Inc. (NYSE: OKE), a diversified energy company. ONEOK is the general partner

and owns 43.4 percent of ONEOK Partners, L.P. (NYSE: OKS), one of the largest publicly traded limited partnerships, which is a leader in the gathering, processing, storage and transportation of natural gas in th e U.S. and owns one of the nation’s premier natural gas liquids (NGL) systems, connecting

much of the NGL supply in the Mid-Continent w ith key market centers. ONEOK is among the largest natural gas distributors in the United States, serving more than 2 million customers in Oklahoma, Kansas and Texas. Its energy services operation focuses primarily on marketing natural gas and related

services throughout the U.S. ONEOK is a Fortune 500 company. For more information, visit www.texasgasservice.com. © 2013

ONEOK, Inc. Oklahoma Natural Gas Kansas Gas Service ONEOK Partners, L.P. ONEOK Energy Services

7/28/2019 Builders Outlook 2013 Issue 6

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/builders-outlook-2013-issue-6 3/16

I am humbled more times than you canimagine or that I will admit anywhere but here. This time it’s because of the Paradeof Homes and the absolutely stunning job done by so many for so many.Personally I walked into our Winton Flair home and thought to myself how reallycool the amenities are and I’m trying to figure out how to incorporate them into myAccent Homes. Probably not but at least now I know what to shoot for. All thehomes are great and offer El Paso a little diversity in styles and arrangements.They are beautifully built and wonderfully decorated. Thank you to all who haveinvested so much time, money and effort into this show. My special thanks goesto my Vice President Frank Torres and my Executive Officer Ray Adauto.

These two guys work their tails off for the association without asking anything inreturn. They are always assisted by Isela (Frank’s wife) and Margaret who areequally hard working. Then you add Kathy Parry from HUNT. What can you sayabout her that hasn’t already been said? I can say this: she is a great person,

hardworking board member, and outstanding employee for HUNT. She’s toughlove with the builders but in the end it’s because of her push that we even have theparade. To the entire HUNT group thank you on behalf of the EPAB. JustinChapman is a really positive guy who let us have this. Thank you Justin.

We’re busy and we’ve been blessed with a political victory of sorts as well withthe election of our Build PAC endorsed candidates. Congratulations to OscarLeeser, Larry Romero, Carl Robinson, Emma Acosta, and Lilly Limon on theirvictory. The world has really changed for you and we stand here ready to help youhelp us house the people of El Paso. Thanks to our Build PAC, Greg Bowling,Bobby Bowling and Randy Bowling, along with the “silent” members who turnedout and made history again by backing the winners. To those in our industry whosupported candidates with poor or reckless hate for home building we offer ourhand and hope you learn from this. A united industry can do many great things. Adivided one creates problems for you and for us. Perhaps this is a tough lesson tolearn just like we have in the past. Standing up for your industry and convictionsis really a whole lot more important than getting invited to a cocktail party. Like wesay “better to be AT the table than on it.”

Have a great summer!

President’s Message |

El Paso Disposal

772-7495

32013 issue 6 Builders Outlook

Edmundo

Dena

President,El Paso Associationof Builders

 Showroom:2131 Missouri

915 • 533 • 6045 fax • 533• 6096

Thomas R. Brown, Owner 

7/28/2019 Builders Outlook 2013 Issue 6

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/builders-outlook-2013-issue-6 4/16

After a regular election for city

representatives and city Mayor the

electorate was left with unresolved

selections. On June 15 the voters

again went to the polls to solidify their

selections. In this race candidates

were going mano a mano with some

interesting results ending the day.

Mayoral candidates Oscar Leeser,

who nearly won the post outright in thefirst race where 8 candidates ran, ran

against city representative SteveOrtega. This race was a little nastier

as Ortega pulled out all the stops to

stop Leeser’s momentum. Leeser

had decided that he would not debate

Ortega, some calling that move as

showing Leeser lacking a vision for

the city. The Leeser campaign kept

their promise and did not debate

instead visited neighborhoods and

businesses.

It must have been a genius movesince Leeser won three to one, 74% to

26%. Ouch. That type of shellacking

hasn’t been seen since the mid 90’s in

a local election. But that was the

exception in this runoff election as the

three city reps races were won or lost

by as little as 22 votes and as high as

125 votes. Carl Robinson defeated

Sam Morgan in District 4, while Lilly

Limon won District 7 by less than fifty

votes. Larry Romero has been

dubbed “Landslide Larry” for his win,

defeating Jim Tolbert by 125 votes, thelargest margin in the city rep races.

So what does this mean for theBuilders Association and its

members? First of all the clearing out

of city representatives who

consistently voted against new home

construction and implemented costly

codes or subdivision and landscaping

rules. The group, consisting of Susie

Byrd, Beto O’Rourke, Steve Ortega

and supported by Ann Morgan Lilly

were a block of votes unwilling to

include the new home builders insetting policy or implementing change.

Instead, this group wound up

embracing building and development

codes they dubbed smart even though

many times they were dumb and

costly. The group also found ways to

install city employees who were

educated by the gurus of the new

urbanism where people are moved

closer together, in smaller

neighborhoods, and in fact causing

the city to social engineer where, how

and what people would live like. Inthis group you find that they want you

to live like crowded places likeChicago, New York or Pittsburgh, all

places where children live in high rise

apartments and play on pavement.

While some of the city is more

conducive to this the group went too

far by demanding that all city land be

branded to their version of smart

code.

Fear mongers said that if you voted

for Leeser, Romero, Limon and

Robinson that you would lose themomentum of change. The new ball

park wouldn’t be built, and we would

return to draconian ways. Frankly

their argument was meant to create

fear, doubt and continue down the

path of government telling private

sector what to do.

There’s a lot of hope that the new

council will be more willing to listen to

professionals in new home

construction and development than

the old guard. I think there’s hope with

the leadership that Oscar Leeser willdirect. After so many years of being on

the downside of votes City Rep EmmaAcosta, Eddie Holguin and Carl

Robinson will now be listened to. Dr.

Noe will surely continue to be fair and

in a leadership position to influence

the council. What Ann Morgan Lilly

and Courtney Nilland will do on tough

votes will be interesting to see. No

doubt they see that the electorate is

tired of spending and forcing private

sector into projects or costs they can’t

afford.If there’s any doubt ask Rhoberta

Leeser. She’ll tell you.

Perspective |

Ray Adauto,

Executive

Vice PresidentEPAB

4 Builders Outlook 2013 issue 6

Runoff election sends clear message to politicians:

“Don’t mess with my vote”

7/28/2019 Builders Outlook 2013 Issue 6

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/builders-outlook-2013-issue-6 5/16

52013 issue 6 Builders Outlook

New-Home Sales Rise

2.1 PercentSales of newly built, single-family

homes rose for a third consecutive monthin May, posting a 2.1 percent gain to aseasonally adjusted annual rate of

476,000 units, according to data releasedby HUD and the U.S. Census Bureau

today. This is the fastest sales pacerecorded since July of 2008.

“Builders are reporting increaseddemand for new homes as buyers seek totake advantage of historically low

mortgage rates while they remain sofavorable,” observed Rick Judson,

chairman of the National Association ofHome Builders (NAHB) and a home

builder from Charlotte, N.C. “Consumers

in markets nationwide are definitelybecoming more confident about making a

home purchase as firming prices andtighter inventories provide further

evidence of the ongoing housingrecovery.”

“Today’s report confirms that theimprovement we have been seeing in

housing markets over the past yearcontinues to take place at a gradual andsteady pace,” said NAHB Senior

Economist Robert Denk. “We expect tosee more of this positive momentum in

the coming months, tempered by thecaution that builders are exercising to

avoid getting ahead of demand along withongoing constraints they face with regardto the availability of credit, materials, lots

and labor.”Three out of four regions posted sales

gains in May, with double-digit increasesof 20.7 percent and 40.7 percent in the

Northeast and Midwest, respectively, anda more moderate, 3.6 percent gain in theWest. The South posted a 9.0 percent

decrease following an unsustainably largegain in the previous month.

The inventory of new homes for sale

edged up slightly to 161,000 units in May,which is a 4.1-month supply at the currentsales pace.

Builders and Lumber

Dealers See Shortagesof Building Materials

Home builders and lumber dealers are

reporting significant shortages of keyhome building materials such as lumber

and wall board, according to recentsurveys by the National Association of

Home Builders (NAHB) and the NationalLumber and Building Material DealersAssociation (NLBMDA).

“Supply constraints are one of thebarriers to a more robust recovery,” said

NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe.“The shortages and price increases

reported by both home builders andlumber dealers are particularly concerninggiven that the current rate of construction

is still far below what would be considerednormal or necessary to meet underlying

demand.”Among builders, the highest incidence

of shortages was for oriented strandboard (OSB), with 22 percent of buildersreporting shortages, followed by wall

board (20 percent), framing lumber (18

percent) and plywood (18 percent). The

builder results come from specialquestions added to the monthly surveythat serves as the basis for the

NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index(HMI), which is widely viewed as a key

indicator of the overall strength of thehome building market.

With the exception of wall board, thelumber dealers reported greatershortages of these products than the

home builders. Among lumber dealers, 27to 28 percent reported shortages of OSB

and plywood, 36 percent reportedshortages of framing lumber and 12

percent reported shortages of wall board.The dealer results come from a specialsurvey of NLBMDA's members, who

operate single or multiple lumber yardsand component plants and deal in many

of the same products that NAHBmembers purchase.

Both the builder and lumber dealersurveys asked about shortages of 24specific building products and materials.

For most of the products, the share ofbuilders reporting a shortage was

considerably higher in May of 2013 thanin 2011 or 2012. The only exceptions were

copper wire, vinyl siding, HVACequipment, insulation and structuralinsulated panels.

“The shares of reported shortages are

not as high now as they were in 2004 or2005, but the increases since 2012 arequite significant, especially when you take

the early stage of the housing recoveryinto account,” said Crowe. “In 2004 and2005 the home building industry was

producing over 1.8 million new homes ayear, while the current rate of new

housing starts is still below 1 million.”With the exception of concrete-related

products, a larger share of lumber dealersthan builders reported price increases inbuilding materials over the past six

months. On average, builders reported a5.17 percent increase in the materials that

go into a house over the past six months.Most lumber dealers reported that the

prices of the products they handle hadincreased on average by 10 percent ormore over the past six months.

“While a nascent housing recovery isunderway, as reflected by the modest

increase in sales by dealers, it’s clear thatthe ongoing material shortages and price

increases being reported by dealerscontinue to be a cause for concern as wemove into the latter half of 2013,” said

Michael O’Brien, NLBMDA president andCEO.

NEWS

Advertise in the

Builders OutlookCall Margaret at the

El Paso Association of Builders915-778-5387

Builders utlookwww.elpasobuilders.com www.epbuilders.org

2013

issue 3

       

308*/(-"#034)035"(&4*/"--

'"$&540'5)&3&4*%&/5*"-$0/4536$5*0/4&$503"3&*.1&%*/(

5)&)064*/("/%&$0/0.*$

3&$07&3:"$$03%*/(50"/&8

4637&:$0/%6$5&%#:5)&"5*0/"-

440$*"5*0/0'0.&6*-%&34

=)&4637&:0'063 .&.#&34

4)0845)"54*/$&6/&0'

3&4*%&/5*"-$0/4536$5*0/'*3.4"3&

3&1035*/("/*/$3&"4*/(/6.#&30'

4)035"(&4*/"--"41&$540'5)&

*/%6453:<'30.$"31&/5&34

&9$"7"5034'3".&34300'&34"/%1-6.#&3450#3*$,-":&34

#6*-%*/(."*/5&/"/$&."/"(&34

"/%8&"5)&3*;"5*0/803,&34)&

4".&)0-%4536&'03

46#$0/53"$5034>4"*%)*&'

$0/0.*45"7*%308&

)&4637&:"-40'06/% 5)"5.03&5)"/)"-'0'5)&#6*-%&343&1035&%

5)"5-"#034)035"(&407&35)&1"45

4*9.0/5)4)"7&$"64&%5)&.50

1":)*()&38"(&40346#$0/53"$503

#*%4504&$63&130+&$54"/%

$0/4&26&/5-:503"*4&)0.&

13*$&403&07&31&3$&/50'5)&#6*-%&344637&:&%&91&3*&/$&%

%&-":4*/$0.1-&5*/(130+&$540/

5*.&1&3$&/5)"%50 563/%08/

40.&130+&$54"/%1&3$&/5-045

03$"/$&--&%4"-&4"4"3&46-50'

3&$&/5-"#034)035"(&4

"350'5)&3&"40/'03 5)&-"#034)035"(&4$"/#&"553*#65&%505)&

'"$55)"5."/:4,*--&%3&4*%&/5*"-

$0/4536$5*0/803,&348&3&'03$&%

504&&,&.1-0:.&/5&-4&8)&3&

%63*/(5)&3&$&44*0/"/%"3& /0

-0/(&3$633&/5-:"7"*-"#-&=!)"564&%50#& )*()1":*/(

4,*--&%+0#47"/*4)&%"4#6*-%&34

"$30445)&/"5*0/8&/50650'

#64*/&44038&3&'03$&% 50-&5803,&34(0>4"*%)"*3."/

*$,6%40/")0.&#6*-%&3'30.

)"3-055&

)&-0440'5&/40'5)064"/%40'

)064*/(+0#4.64)300.&%50

.03&5)"/.*--*0/%63*/( 5)&

1&",0'5)&%08/563/63*/(5)*41&3*0%."/:53"%&43&53"*/&%

$0/4536$5*0/803,&34"/%5)&:"3&

/053&563/*/(505)&3&4*%&/5*"-

$0/4536$5*0/4&$503

&"/8)*-&"-"$,0'#6*-%"#-&

-054"/%*/$3&"4&%$0454'03

."5&3*"-4"/%-"#03"3&"-40$0/53*#65*/(505)&130#-&."45)&

*/'3"4536$563&5)"546110354)0.&

#6*-%*/(.07&4503&&45"#-*4)

*54&-''0--08*/(5)&80345)064*/(

%08/563/4*/$&5)&3&"5

&13&44*0/308&4"*%

0)&-1.&&55)&(308*/(%&."/%'034,*--&%-"#038*5)*/5)&

)064*/(4&$5035)&0.&6*-%&34

/45*565&*/1"35/&34)*18*5)

1307*%&4$"3&&353"*/*/(

"/%+0#1-"$&.&/5*/5)&#6*-%*/(

*/%6453:0''&34"/"33":0'1035"#-&13&"113&/5*$&4)*1

53"*/*/(130(3".4*/" 7"3*&5:0'

4,*--&%53"%&45)"5$"/#&

$6450.*;&%50.&&55)&803,'03$&/&&%40'$0..6/*5*&4"$30445)&

/"5*0/3&(6-"3-:1-"$&4

"11309*."5&-:1&3$&/50'*54

456%&/5(3"%6"5&4*/+0#4*/5)&

#6*-%*/(4&$503

=!&"3&3".1*/(61 063&''0354

5053"*/%*7&34&1016-"5*0/4"/%1-"$&5)&.*/+0#450.&&55)&

(308*/(%&."/%0'5)&#6*-%*/(

4&$503>4"*%3&4*%&/5"/%

0)/06340/

=7&/*/"1&3*0% 0'3&-"5*7&-:

)*()6/&.1-0:.&/58&45*--/&&%

50$0.1-&.&/5063+0#53"*/*/(&''0354#:#3*/(*/(*/'03&*(/

803,&3450.&&55)&/&&%40'

)0.&#6*-%&34"/%)0.&#6:&34>

"%%&%6%40/

)&803,&34)035"(&4"3&/05

0/-:4-08*/(5)&)064*/(3&$07&3:

#65"-40)635*/(+0#"/% &$0/0.*$(3085)

"5*0/"--:5)&$0/4536$5*0/0'

4*/(-&'".*-:)0.&4

(&/&3"5&4.03&5)"/ +0#4

"11309*."5&-:.*--*0/*/

8"(&4"/%.03&5)"/ .*--*0/*/'&%&3"-45"5&"/% -0$"-5"9

3&7&/6&4)"5%0&4/?5&7&/$06/5

5)&*/$3&"4&*/"//6"-1301&35:

5"9&45)"5-0$"-.6/*$*1"-*5*&43&-:0/50'6/%4$)00-410-*$&"/%

'*3&'*()5&34

45)&&$0/0.:.&/%41&/561

%&."/%'03)064*/(8*--$0/5*/6&

50(308"4306()-:.*--*0/

)064&)0-%'03."5*0/48&3&

%&-":&%"4"3&46-50'5)&3&"5&$&44*0///03."-&$0/0.*$

5*.&4%&."/%'03/&8)0.&4

4)06-%#&"#065 .*--*0/

"//6"--:

*4"/5*$*1"5*/(505"-

)064*/(45"3540'5)*4:&"3

"/%.*--*0/*/ "45)&."3,&5$0/5*/6&4*54(3"%6"-

3&#06/%

=!&/&&%50-00,)0-*45*$"--:"5

5)&)0.&#6*-%*/(*/'3"4536$563&50

.&&5(308*/("/%'6563&%&."/%>

4"*%6%40/=0"70*%"36/61 */

13*$&4*/)05."3,&54%6&50-"#03*446&48&/&&%50$0.1-&.&/5

063$633&/553"*/*/(130(3".48*5)

"."3,&5#"4&%7*4"4:45&.5)"5

806-%"--08.03&*..*(3"/5450

-&("--:&/5&35)&$0/4536$5*0/

803,'03$&&"$):&"38)&/ 5)&3&*4"%&"35)0'803,&3450 '*--5)&+0#4

5)"5"3&/&&%&%>

GrowingLaborShortagesImpedeHousingandEconomicRecovery

7/28/2019 Builders Outlook 2013 Issue 6

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/builders-outlook-2013-issue-6 6/16

6 Builders Outlook 2013 issue 6

The Economy

Economic Forecast for 2nd Half 2013:

Sunny with Cloudy PeriodsLooking ahead at the second half of2013, the economic news is pretty solid.

The US economy ison the mend, thelabor market is slowlyhealing and houseprices are up about10% from year-agolevels. In addition,Europe (while inrecession) appears tobe holding together,DC budget

brinksmanship is fading, car and light-

truck sales along with consumersentiment are rising, and new homeconstruction continues its steadyascent. The only serious domestic fly inthe ointment is the significant fiscal dragfrom Washington as the result ofsequestration and year-end taxincreases. The biggest foreign drag isEurope’s recession is hurting USexports.

With all this in mind, I expect Q3 GDPto be about 1.75% and Q4 GDP to come

in slightly higher at 2.1%. As for housingstarts, in Q3 they should, for the firsttime in years, exceed a million units(seasonally adjusted and annualized)with single family starts coming in at675,000 and multifamily starts reachinga pace of about 340,000. In Q4 singlefamily starts should hit to 700,000 withmultifamily starts unchanged.

Inflation will remain benign. Thecombination of weak global growth, flatto declining energy and commodityprices, and flat to mildly rising foodprices will keep CPI growth well below

2%. Moreover, the combination of tinyrises in import prices, producer prices,consumer prices and anemic wagegrowth means that personalconsumption expenditure inflation, theFeds preferred inflation measure, willbarely exceed 1%, giving the FederalReserve ample room to continue itsprogram of quantitative easing.

As for jobs, despite an improving labormarket, the unemployment rate at theend of the year will remain above 7%.

And combined with an annual inflationrate of well below 2%, it makes me thinkBernanke and the rest of the votingmembers of the interest rate-settingFederal Open Market Committee willcontinue purchasing $85 billion/month inTreasuries and mortgage-backedsecurities at least through October2013. Any tapering of QE3 willcommence in late 2013 and more likelyin early 2014.

Another reason why QE3 will bemaintained in that due to weak wagegrowth, consumer spending is rising

quite slowly and is being fueled, at leastin part, by a decline in the personalsavings rate which now stands at ascant 2.5%. Of course rising stockprices, improving home values andeasing credit market conditions are alsoaiding the rise in consumer spending.But a sudden rise in interest rates couldderail these positive developments andweaken manufacturing, which iscurrently neither expanding norcontracting. As such, the risk is simply

not worth the return, at least for now.What would change my thinking about

QE3 would be consistent monthly non-farm payroll job growth of greater than187,000. If we manage to achieve that,the Fed would likely reduce the amountof its monthly bonds purchases andinterest rates would rise. However,given a growing economy, the rate riseswould not be growth-sapping and I putthe chances of a new recession at nomore than 10%. In the meantime, I lookforward to continued, slow and steadyimprovement the rest of the year.

Have a wonderful summer and seeyou in August! (Remember, I will not bewriting an article for July).

Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. is President of GraphsandLaughs, LLC and can be reached at [email protected] daily 70 word economics and policy blog can be seen at www.econ70.com.

Elliot Eisenberg

is your retrementplan makng everydollar count?The El Paso Association of Builders is proud to now offer an

individualized retirement plan created for you.

ThE EPAB MEMBEr rETirEMEnT PlAn

Eve f you aeady ave a etemet pa pace, t s we wot you

tme to tak to us about te ew optos desged fo membes of te E

Paso Assocato of Budes.

We udestad tat we t comes to etemet pag, savg evey

doa ca add up. Tat’s wy we ave pateed wt Empoyee Beefts

of E Paso to offe you te oppotuty to ceate a dvduazed

etemet pa ude te umbea of te E Paso Assocato of Budes

tat ca ep educe set up fees ad ote assocated expeses.

• ivestmets

• irA’s• 401K

 now s te tme to stat maxmzg you pa fo te ext pase of you

fe. let you membesp wt EPAB ep you get tee.

Call (915) 542-0900

for more information today.

Prior to selecting investment options for your plan you should consider the investment objectives, risks, fees and expenses carefully. For this and other important information, you obtainprospectuses for mutual funds, any applicable annuity contract and the annuity's underlying funds, and/or additional disclosure documents from the appropriate retirement plan representative. Readthem carefully.There is no guarantee that participation in any retirement plan will result in a profit or that your account will outperform a self-managed portfolio. Please consult with your financialplanner, attorney and/or tax adviser as needed.

7/28/2019 Builders Outlook 2013 Issue 6

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/builders-outlook-2013-issue-6 7/16

72013 ISSUE 6 Builders Outlook

Call 778-5387

for more information today.

7/28/2019 Builders Outlook 2013 Issue 6

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/builders-outlook-2013-issue-6 8/16

Builders utlook on the scene |

The 2013 Parade of Homes kicked offwith a preview party on June 21. Nearly1300 visitors entered the Parade site thatnight and enjoyed beautiful weather andgreat food and drink. The Parade ofHomes is located on the Westside of El

Paso in a HUNT community named theFalls at Cimarron. This planned communi-ty features spectacular views of the uppervalley and the Franklin Mountains. Homesin the Parade range from the high $200’sto the mid $400K depending on who built itand the amenities they present. “Weoffered the El Paso Association of Buildersa really beautiful area to hold the Paradeof Homes,” said Kathy Parry, Director ofBuilder Relations Southwest CommunityDevelopment for HUNT. “The buildershave done a great job getting these homesready to show and sell and as you can seefrom the throngs of visitors we have a realpent up demand for this,” she continued.

“I am just blown away with all the differ-

ent homes and the detail that was put intoeach one of them,” said Edmundo Dena,President of the El Paso Association ofBuilders (EPAB). “We can’t thank thebuilders and HUNT enough for the workthey have done to get us this show,” hecontinued. Thirteen builders joined in theeffort and each one built their home insteps that were something to see. “If youwould have told me that all these homeswould have been done on time I wouldhave said you’re crazy,” said Frank Torres,chairman for this year’s Parade. “As abuilder myself I know the stress thatcomes with doing a show like this, and itcan be a real problem as the time getsshorter. I think these builders did an out-standing job all the way around,” Torrescontinued.

The 2013 POH features these custombuilders: Palo Verde Homes, PuntoLiving, Pointe Homes, Icon CustomHomes, Winton/Flair, Phillips Homes,Joseph Homes, Trinity Homes, QualityCraft Homes, Crown Heritage Homes, RCBaeza, Bella Vista Custom Homes, and M

A Homes. Each is different with a person-ality designed to fit a variety of wants.With a Parade Home the buyer gets addi-tional value because vendors and suppli-ers are more apt to showcase the latestwares and provide a good price point tothe builder. Parade homes resale values

often are higher according to agents andso the value continues long after the initialpurchase.

As for the preview party the interest washigh on the homes, but it was about see-ing old friends and making new ones aswell. “I can tell you that I think this is thebest preview party in thirty years,” saidpast President Mark Dyer. “I knowbecause I haven’t missed anysince that time,” he went on. As theparty wound down one thing remainedclear: this was long overdue. “I am soappreciative of the HUNT community andall the builders, volunteers and suppliers,”said Ray Adauto, Executive Vice PresidentEPAB. “I want to single out Frank Torres,Isela Torres, and Margaret Adauto for theirhard work at the preview,” he continued.“Frank deserves a huge thank you fromevery member for the unselfish way he putthis together,” Adauto continued.

The POH continues until July 7 withhours of presentation Monday-Friday 3-7pm, Saturday and Sunday 11-7. Entry is$5 for anyone over the age of 12.

2013 Parade of Homes Punto Living

Philips Homes

Palo Verde Homes

Icon Homes

Flair Homes

RC Baeza

Quality Craft Homes

7/28/2019 Builders Outlook 2013 Issue 6

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/builders-outlook-2013-issue-6 9/16

2013 issue 6

Trinity Homes

Pointe Homes MA Homes

Joseph Homes

Bella Vista

Crown Heritage

of Texas

TM

www.elpasobuilders.com

7/28/2019 Builders Outlook 2013 Issue 6

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/builders-outlook-2013-issue-6 10/16

10 Builders Outlook 2013 issue 6

During National HomeownershipMonth in June, the NationalAssociation of Home Builders(NAHB) is telling young people thatthe time is right to buy a home, andthe nation’s builders are building thehomes they want.

“As the economy recovers andyoung people who had to live athome with their parents moveforward with their lives and achievetheir dreams of homeownership,home builders are delivering homesthat cater to the floor plans, featuresand affordability that this generation

desires,” said NAHB Chairman RickJudson, a home builder anddeveloper from Charlotte, N.C.

More than 80 percent ofGeneration Y home buyers—peopleborn in 1977 or later—said inNAHB’s 2012 consumer preferencesurvey they prefer a highly energyefficient home that results in lowerutility bills during the home’s lifetimeover a lower-priced home withoutenergy efficient features. Today’snew homes feature ENERGYSTAR-rated appliances; windows,doors and insulation that bettercontrol the home’s interior climate;and other modern components such

as tankless water heaters andHVAC systems that save costs onutility bills.

And cost-conscious young buyerswill be happy to hear that a newhome actually costs less to maintainthan an older home. An NAHB studyfound that homes built before 1960have average maintenance costs of$564 a year, while a home built after2008 averages $241. Plus,mortgage rates are still very low,bolstering affordability for homebuyers.

Generation Y buyers favor mediaand game rooms more than anyother specialty rooms for their nexthome. New homes today not onlycontain these spaces, they areoutfitted with the state-of-the-artelectronic and wiring componentsthat can accommodate high-definition televisions, full-housesound systems, hard-wired fire andsecurity alarms and more.

Young buyers can check outmany of the outstanding designsand features being included inhomes built by NAHB members atour social media communitiesf a c e b o o k . c o m / h o m e b u i l d r s ,pinterest.com/nahbhome andgoogle.com/+nahb. They can also

access home buying and homebuilding information and resourceson NAHB’s website atnahb.org/forconsumers.

The time has never been betterfor young people to become homeowners, whether it be a new homeor existing,” said Judson. “There areoutstanding opportunities in thecurrent market, with near record lowinterest rates, competitive pricesand new homes being built thatinclude open layouts, energyefficient components and otherfeatures that cater to young buyers.”

Trends:

Home BuildersBuilding Homesthat Young BuyersWant

More than 80 percent of Generation Y home buyers—people born in 1977 or later—saidin NAHB’s 2012 consumer preference survey they prefer a highly energy efficient homethat results in lower utility bills during the home’s lifetime over a lower-priced homewithout energy efficient features

7/28/2019 Builders Outlook 2013 Issue 6

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/builders-outlook-2013-issue-6 11/16

112013 issue 6 Builders Outlook

Give your customersthe ‘option of the sun’

Now more than ever,

El Paso home buyers

are planning for the

future.

Border Solar can help

you offer your

customers solar power

as a sensible

alternave.

The future starts

today.Crossing to Clean Energy

www.bordersolar.com

7365 Remcon Circle

El Paso, TX 79912

(915) 613•4168

follow us on twier and

facebook:

BorderSolar

e options builders askedfor are right here.Developed with the backing of the strongest insurance carriersserving the Texas building industry, the exclusive TAB endorsedinsurance program oers new exible options and rates that aremore competitive than ever before.

Program Highlights

ti"wSBUFEBENJUUFEJOTVSBODFDPNQBOJFTTFWFSBMPQUJPOTBWBJMBCMF

t(-PêFSJOHDPWFSBHFGPSQSPQFSUZEBNBHFUIBUSFTVMUTGSPNGBVMUZ  defective, or poor workmanship in your work 

t(-MJNJUTPGVQUPNJMMJPOBOEIJHIFSBWBJMBCMF

t&YQBOEFEQPMJDZGPSNGPSDPNNFSDJBMQSPKFDUT

t#VJMEFST3JTLNBTUFSQPMJDJFTNPOUIMZSFQPSUJOHBOOVBMBOEPOFTIPUT

t8PSLFST$PNQUXPIJHIMZDPTUFêFDUJWFQSPHSBNT

t&YDFTT-JBCJMJUZGPSDPNNFSDJBMHFOFSBMDPOUSBDUPST

t$PNNFSDJBM6NCSFMMB 

Contact your local approved agent today!

 www.builder agentn etwork.com

El Paso, Permian Basin and Surrounding Area 

)6#*OUFSOBUJPOBM*OTVSBODF4FSWJDFT-BODF7BO%FNBO$-$4

 www.hubinternational.com

 NO W  is  t he  bes t  t i me

 to  b u y  yo u r  ne w

 ho me  i n  E l  Paso !

A ho ra es e l

 t ie m po  pa ra

co m p ra r 

 u na casa  n ue va

e n  E l  Paso !

        

      

     

    

  

 Yo u r  Ne w  Ho me

S u Casa  N ue va

Reserve your advertising space in the 2013 edition of Your New Home/Su Casa Nueva

The most complete home buying guide in both English & Spanish

• Unmatched distribution and circulation• Unique dual language layout• Great advertising opportunity

Call Margaret today at 778-5387

 

Experience the service and synergy of our

Westside team. Everyone works together

to make your closing efficient, accurate

and downright enjoyable.

WEST 5500 North Desert, Suite A-2 (915) 225-8300

stewart.com/el-paso

Your Stewart Westside home team.

We’ll Get You 

Home

 

7/28/2019 Builders Outlook 2013 Issue 6

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/builders-outlook-2013-issue-6 12/16

7/28/2019 Builders Outlook 2013 Issue 6

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/builders-outlook-2013-issue-6 13/16

7/28/2019 Builders Outlook 2013 Issue 6

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/builders-outlook-2013-issue-6 14/16

Summer is officially here and theheat proves it. After so muchactivity over the last few monthsmany of our associate membersare now working with the Parade ofHomes builders, getting them readyand hopping for some really goodthings from that. I know that we

look forward to doing the Paradebut it’s a lot of work. I would like tothank many of you who will bemanning the ticket booth andhelping the association with yourefforts.

Our next official event is comingup July 10 as we go out to Bowl ElPaso for some indoor fun. Teams

are forming and it’s easy to getgoing with a four person team, orperhaps you’d like to be a KING Pinand get a team plus do someadvertising with us. Anyway, we’relooking forward to it.

We won’t have a meeting in Julybut I am calling for one August 5, so

put the date on your calendar.Again if you’re going out onvacation or taking a short tripsomewhere around here be carefuland enjoy yourself.

14 Builders Outlook 2013 issue 6

Sam ShallenbergerWestern Wholesale Supply

Associates Council

7/28/2019 Builders Outlook 2013 Issue 6

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/builders-outlook-2013-issue-6 15/16

I execuTive oFFicerS

ednd Dna – Psdnt

 Accent Homes

Fank Ts – v Psdnt

GMF Custom Homes

edga mntl – Stay/Tas 

Palo Verde Homes

Sa Shallnbg – Assats cha 

Western Wholesale

Fank Ays- idat Past PsdntCisco Homes

ray Adat – et v Psdnt

El Paso Association of Builders

I couNciL/commiTTee cHAirS

Assats cnl

Sam Shallenberger 

Bld PAc

Randy Bowling

Dst Gn Bldng cnl

Javier Ruiz

Land us cnl

Sal Masoud

 Yng Dsgn Awad

John Chaneyrdls cnl

Rudy Guel

mbshp rtntn

Mike Santamaria, Greg Bowling

Fnan ctt

Edgar Montiel

Wn’s cnl

Lorraine Huit

I ADviSorY To THe BoArD

J. Crawford Kerr, Attorney, Firth, Johnston

& Martinez

I BoArD oF DirecTorS

Juanita Garcia, Icon Custom Builders

Samira Gonzalez, Edwards Homes

Walter Lujan, Dawco Construction

Carlos Villalobos, Pointe Homes

Don Rassette, Rassette Homes

Beverly Clevenger, Automated Division 6 Builders

Frank Spencer, Aztec Contractors

Kathy Parry, Hunt Communities

Sal Masoud, Del Rio Engineering

Robert L. Foster,

Southwest Land Development Services

Leti Navarette, Custom Dream Homes

Linda Troncoso, TR-Engineering

Lance VanDeman, Hub International

John Chaney, Passage Supply

Joe Bernal, El Paso Employee Benefits

Ken Wade, El Paso Building Materials

Ruben Orquiz, MTI Ready Mix

Kathy Carrillo, Pioneer Bank

Henry Tinajero, West Star Bank

Paul Zacour, Zacour & Associates

Chuck Gabriel, Carpets West

Ted Escobedo, Snappy Publishing

Lorraine Huit, Cardel Design

Javier Ruiz, Border Solar & Senercon

2012 Bld mb of Th Ya 

Frank Arroyos

Cisco Homes

2012 Pat c Awad

Mike Santamaria

Mountain Vista Homes

2012 Assat of Th Ya 

Sam Shallenberger 

Western Wholesale Supply

Jhn Shatzan Awad

Hunt Companies

Hnay Lf mbs

Rudy Guel

Brad Roe

Cliff Anthes

Wayne Grinnell

Chester Lovelady

Don Henderson

 Anna Gil

Past Psdnts

cttd t S

ePAB mssn Statnt:

The El Paso Association of Builders is a

federated professional organization representing

the home building industry, committed to

enhancing the quality of life in our community by

providing affordable homes of excellence and

value.

The El Paso Association of Builders is a

501C(6) trade organization.

© 2013 Builder’s Outlook

is published and distributed for the

El Paso Association of Builders

by Snappy Publishing

240 Thunderbird • Suite C

El Paso • Texas • 79912 915-820-2800

6046 Surety Dr. El Paso, TX 79905

915-778-5387 • Fax: 915-772-3038

Greg Bowling

Kelly Sorenson

Mark Dyer 

Mike Santamaria

John Cullers

Randy Bowling

Doug Schwartz

Robert Baeza

Bobby Bowling, IV

Rudy Guel

 Anna Gil

Bradley Roe

Bob Bowling, III

E. H. Baeza

Hershel Stringfield

ITAB STATe DirecTorS

Doug Borrett, Karam Co., Life Director 

Randy Bowling, Tropicana Homes

INATioNAL DirecTorS

Bobby Bowling IV.

Demetrio Jimenez

NATioNAL ASSociATioN oF

Home BuiLDerS

(800) 368-5242

TexAS ASSociATioN oF

BuiLDerS

(800)252-3625

www.elpasobuilders.comwww.epbuilders.org

Builders utlook

7/28/2019 Builders Outlook 2013 Issue 6

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/builders-outlook-2013-issue-6 16/16

Hunt is developing family focused neighborhoods

in both east and west El Paso.

Our communities feature amenities such as

neighborhood parks, walking trails, bike paths,

and landscaped roadways.

Only in a community by Hunt will you find home

options for everyone – from the first-time buyer

to those searching for their ultimate dream home.

 www.huntcompanies.com

DEVELOPING DREAMS.IN EAST AND WEST

EL PASO.

EAST Horizon MesaEastlake Boulevard to Horizon Mesa Boulevard

  Emerald EstatesEastlake Boulevard to Emerald Park Drive

  Emerald PassEastlake Boulevard to Emerald Sands Drive

  Mission Ridge www.liveatmissionridge.comI-10 and Eastlake Boulevard

 WEST Cimarron www.liveatcimarron.comHelen of Troy at Redd Road