builders outlook 2013 issue 6
TRANSCRIPT
7/28/2019 Builders Outlook 2013 Issue 6
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/builders-outlook-2013-issue-6 1/16
Builders utlook
www.elpasobuilders.com www.epbuilders.org
2013
issue 6
From Greater El Paso Chamber of
Commerce, edited by Ray Adauto
On June 25th General Ray Odierno,Chief of Staff of the Army, announced the
results of the Army’s 2020 Force StructureRealignment, which will reduce the Army’sActive Component end-strength from the570,000 soldiers currently serving to490,000 by 2017.
In January of this year, the El Pasocommunity was made aware of the Army’sProgrammatic Environmental Assessment(PEA) which was considering possible cutsand realignments among 23 of the Army’sbases, including Fort Bliss. Since then, theChamber (led by our strong volunteerleadership), has relentlessly advocated onbehalf of Fort Bliss and the regional militarycommunity. Through visits to the Pentagonand elected leadership on Capitol Hill, theChamber has touted the exceptionalqualities that make Fort Bliss the premier
installation in the Department of Defense.The Chamber was also given theopportunity to host a Listening Session inApril, which was attended by Army officialswho were charged with assessing each ofthe 23 installations and their neighboringcommunities. The Chamber utilized theListening Session to highlight the billions ofdollars of investments made by thecommunity in transportation, education,healthcare, housing, and quality of life tosupport the growth of Fort Bliss.
Thus, after months of waiting GeneralOdierno announced that Fort Bliss was oneof ten Army bases in the United Stateswhich will have a brigade combat teamdeactivated by 2019. The Chamber is
proud to say that although Fort Bliss will belosing a Brigade Combat Team (3-1 AD)and a net loss of 750 soldiers, it will remainan essential power projection platform forthe Army and will be minimally impacted bythe overall Force Structure Realignment.
In his announcement, General Odiernoalso warned that the Army’s ForceStructure Realignment may only be the firstof additional cuts the Army must make inorder to meet budget requirements, ifsequestration continues into the next fiscalyear. Under such fiscally challengingcircumstances, it is important for thebusiness community to not onlyunderstand how the local economy will beimpacted by these changes, but also thatour troops need community support nowmore than ever. Through thesechallenging times, the Chamber remainscommitted to Fort Bliss and will continue tosupport our regional military installationsthrough proactive advocacy and outreachefforts.
On June 27 the United States Air Forcechose Fort Bliss as a major training centerlocation for security forces that will bedeployed around the world. In theannouncement USAF will bring between8,000 to 10,000 airmen through the trainingthat ranges from 10 days to 60 days induration. At the end of each sessiongraduation will bring in visiting familymembers as well. The move to Fort Bliss
was anticipated but other communities, likeSan Antonio, lost out. Fort Bliss is thepremier DOD facility in the world with over$7 billion invested over the last five years.
Fort Bliss housing:good or bad for localbuilders/developers?
A recent meeting with the US ArmyGarrison Command left questions for theprivate sector on whether the future ofsingle family and multifamily construction
will be positively or negatively impacted.Most of the members in attendance felt thatit will be negative given the statisticspresented and the need for the Army’sprincipal contractor, Balfour Beatty,continue to build inside the wire.
Joined at the meeting held at the GreaterEl Paso Chamber of Commerce by the ElPaso Apartment Association, commercialreal estate companies and Chambermembers, attendees listened to GarrisonCommander Dayley report on what toexpect at Bliss over the next few years.“We continue to look at upgrading thehousing for family and single soldiers byconstructing housing inside the post,”
Dayley told the audience. “We areparticularly interested in west Bliss andmodernizing housing along US 54 near thegolf course and building new single soldierbarracks (apartments) for them near ourFreedom Crossing,” he continued.
The apartment builders and associateswere concerned that statistics beingpresented on the occupancy rates were oldand not accurate. “What we think is that theArmy needs to be giving correct numbers,otherwise it looks to outside interests likewe are short on apartments, while that isnot reality,” said Ray Baca local apartment
management member.The presentation says that there is a
93% occupancy rate while the apartmentmanagers present said 88-89% is thereality. “We were told to build for theincoming troops back five years ago, andprivate sector did that anticipating a returnon investment,” Baca continued. “What weare seeing is an oversupply now as troopsare transitioning in and out quicker. Nowthe Army is going to compete with us forthe market share and that’s troubling,” hecontinued.
Single family housing also has not takenoff with the military as anticipated. In thepast the makeup of the troops was different
when the Air Defense School was at Bliss.The troops now coming in are muchyounger and single, mostly not ready orable to purchase a home while stationed atFort Bliss. “We are seeing much moresales of rims and big screens than we areof houses,” said Edmundo Dena, Presidentof the association. “The reality is thatthese younger troops need to partner up inan apartment so they can deploy andreturn without the cost of a homepurchase,” he continued. Eventransitional housing for Senior SoldierUnaccompanied Housing (SUH) for E-6
and above will see a new complex with 260units at market rate rents. This housing istargeting students assigned to SNCO andofficers coming to Bliss unaccompanied.In other words apartments for non-familymoves to Bliss for training, education (SSgtMajor School) or assignment. This willdirectly impact area apartment rentals,especially those in North East and west ofthe post.
The post plans to add about 800 homesto their current 3600 inventory by end of2016. They are also planning to sell off1635 acres of land near Montana Avenueand Loop 375, plus an additional 94 acresnear the old Beaumont.
Army Force Structure Realignment:Understanding the impact to local business community
This image was originally posted to Flickr by DVIDSHUB
7/28/2019 Builders Outlook 2013 Issue 6
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/builders-outlook-2013-issue-6 2/16
2 Builders Outlook 2013 issue 6
THINK OF US AS PART OF YOUR SALES TEAM.
No doubt about it, when you build homes and businesses that are natural gas ready, they’re
instantly more attractive to customers.
Natural gas furnaces, water heaters and clothes dryers offer greater efficiency and lower
operating costs than their electric counterparts, and natural gas kitchens sell themselves.
Let us help you use natural gas to turn prospects into buyers. For more information, contact
Eduardo Lucero at [email protected] or (915) 680-7216.
Texas Gas Service provides natural gas to more than 620,000 customers in the state of Texas, including customers in Austin, El Paso, the Gulf Coast and the Rio Grande Valley. Texas Gas Service is a division of ONEOK, Inc. (NYSE: OKE), a diversified energy company. ONEOK is the general partner
and owns 43.4 percent of ONEOK Partners, L.P. (NYSE: OKS), one of the largest publicly traded limited partnerships, which is a leader in the gathering, processing, storage and transportation of natural gas in th e U.S. and owns one of the nation’s premier natural gas liquids (NGL) systems, connecting
much of the NGL supply in the Mid-Continent w ith key market centers. ONEOK is among the largest natural gas distributors in the United States, serving more than 2 million customers in Oklahoma, Kansas and Texas. Its energy services operation focuses primarily on marketing natural gas and related
services throughout the U.S. ONEOK is a Fortune 500 company. For more information, visit www.texasgasservice.com. © 2013
ONEOK, Inc. Oklahoma Natural Gas Kansas Gas Service ONEOK Partners, L.P. ONEOK Energy Services
7/28/2019 Builders Outlook 2013 Issue 6
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/builders-outlook-2013-issue-6 3/16
I am humbled more times than you canimagine or that I will admit anywhere but here. This time it’s because of the Paradeof Homes and the absolutely stunning job done by so many for so many.Personally I walked into our Winton Flair home and thought to myself how reallycool the amenities are and I’m trying to figure out how to incorporate them into myAccent Homes. Probably not but at least now I know what to shoot for. All thehomes are great and offer El Paso a little diversity in styles and arrangements.They are beautifully built and wonderfully decorated. Thank you to all who haveinvested so much time, money and effort into this show. My special thanks goesto my Vice President Frank Torres and my Executive Officer Ray Adauto.
These two guys work their tails off for the association without asking anything inreturn. They are always assisted by Isela (Frank’s wife) and Margaret who areequally hard working. Then you add Kathy Parry from HUNT. What can you sayabout her that hasn’t already been said? I can say this: she is a great person,
hardworking board member, and outstanding employee for HUNT. She’s toughlove with the builders but in the end it’s because of her push that we even have theparade. To the entire HUNT group thank you on behalf of the EPAB. JustinChapman is a really positive guy who let us have this. Thank you Justin.
We’re busy and we’ve been blessed with a political victory of sorts as well withthe election of our Build PAC endorsed candidates. Congratulations to OscarLeeser, Larry Romero, Carl Robinson, Emma Acosta, and Lilly Limon on theirvictory. The world has really changed for you and we stand here ready to help youhelp us house the people of El Paso. Thanks to our Build PAC, Greg Bowling,Bobby Bowling and Randy Bowling, along with the “silent” members who turnedout and made history again by backing the winners. To those in our industry whosupported candidates with poor or reckless hate for home building we offer ourhand and hope you learn from this. A united industry can do many great things. Adivided one creates problems for you and for us. Perhaps this is a tough lesson tolearn just like we have in the past. Standing up for your industry and convictionsis really a whole lot more important than getting invited to a cocktail party. Like wesay “better to be AT the table than on it.”
Have a great summer!
President’s Message |
El Paso Disposal
772-7495
32013 issue 6 Builders Outlook
Edmundo
Dena
President,El Paso Associationof Builders
Showroom:2131 Missouri
915 • 533 • 6045 fax • 533• 6096
Thomas R. Brown, Owner
7/28/2019 Builders Outlook 2013 Issue 6
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/builders-outlook-2013-issue-6 4/16
After a regular election for city
representatives and city Mayor the
electorate was left with unresolved
selections. On June 15 the voters
again went to the polls to solidify their
selections. In this race candidates
were going mano a mano with some
interesting results ending the day.
Mayoral candidates Oscar Leeser,
who nearly won the post outright in thefirst race where 8 candidates ran, ran
against city representative SteveOrtega. This race was a little nastier
as Ortega pulled out all the stops to
stop Leeser’s momentum. Leeser
had decided that he would not debate
Ortega, some calling that move as
showing Leeser lacking a vision for
the city. The Leeser campaign kept
their promise and did not debate
instead visited neighborhoods and
businesses.
It must have been a genius movesince Leeser won three to one, 74% to
26%. Ouch. That type of shellacking
hasn’t been seen since the mid 90’s in
a local election. But that was the
exception in this runoff election as the
three city reps races were won or lost
by as little as 22 votes and as high as
125 votes. Carl Robinson defeated
Sam Morgan in District 4, while Lilly
Limon won District 7 by less than fifty
votes. Larry Romero has been
dubbed “Landslide Larry” for his win,
defeating Jim Tolbert by 125 votes, thelargest margin in the city rep races.
So what does this mean for theBuilders Association and its
members? First of all the clearing out
of city representatives who
consistently voted against new home
construction and implemented costly
codes or subdivision and landscaping
rules. The group, consisting of Susie
Byrd, Beto O’Rourke, Steve Ortega
and supported by Ann Morgan Lilly
were a block of votes unwilling to
include the new home builders insetting policy or implementing change.
Instead, this group wound up
embracing building and development
codes they dubbed smart even though
many times they were dumb and
costly. The group also found ways to
install city employees who were
educated by the gurus of the new
urbanism where people are moved
closer together, in smaller
neighborhoods, and in fact causing
the city to social engineer where, how
and what people would live like. Inthis group you find that they want you
to live like crowded places likeChicago, New York or Pittsburgh, all
places where children live in high rise
apartments and play on pavement.
While some of the city is more
conducive to this the group went too
far by demanding that all city land be
branded to their version of smart
code.
Fear mongers said that if you voted
for Leeser, Romero, Limon and
Robinson that you would lose themomentum of change. The new ball
park wouldn’t be built, and we would
return to draconian ways. Frankly
their argument was meant to create
fear, doubt and continue down the
path of government telling private
sector what to do.
There’s a lot of hope that the new
council will be more willing to listen to
professionals in new home
construction and development than
the old guard. I think there’s hope with
the leadership that Oscar Leeser willdirect. After so many years of being on
the downside of votes City Rep EmmaAcosta, Eddie Holguin and Carl
Robinson will now be listened to. Dr.
Noe will surely continue to be fair and
in a leadership position to influence
the council. What Ann Morgan Lilly
and Courtney Nilland will do on tough
votes will be interesting to see. No
doubt they see that the electorate is
tired of spending and forcing private
sector into projects or costs they can’t
afford.If there’s any doubt ask Rhoberta
Leeser. She’ll tell you.
Perspective |
Ray Adauto,
Executive
Vice PresidentEPAB
4 Builders Outlook 2013 issue 6
Runoff election sends clear message to politicians:
“Don’t mess with my vote”
7/28/2019 Builders Outlook 2013 Issue 6
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/builders-outlook-2013-issue-6 5/16
52013 issue 6 Builders Outlook
New-Home Sales Rise
2.1 PercentSales of newly built, single-family
homes rose for a third consecutive monthin May, posting a 2.1 percent gain to aseasonally adjusted annual rate of
476,000 units, according to data releasedby HUD and the U.S. Census Bureau
today. This is the fastest sales pacerecorded since July of 2008.
“Builders are reporting increaseddemand for new homes as buyers seek totake advantage of historically low
mortgage rates while they remain sofavorable,” observed Rick Judson,
chairman of the National Association ofHome Builders (NAHB) and a home
builder from Charlotte, N.C. “Consumers
in markets nationwide are definitelybecoming more confident about making a
home purchase as firming prices andtighter inventories provide further
evidence of the ongoing housingrecovery.”
“Today’s report confirms that theimprovement we have been seeing in
housing markets over the past yearcontinues to take place at a gradual andsteady pace,” said NAHB Senior
Economist Robert Denk. “We expect tosee more of this positive momentum in
the coming months, tempered by thecaution that builders are exercising to
avoid getting ahead of demand along withongoing constraints they face with regardto the availability of credit, materials, lots
and labor.”Three out of four regions posted sales
gains in May, with double-digit increasesof 20.7 percent and 40.7 percent in the
Northeast and Midwest, respectively, anda more moderate, 3.6 percent gain in theWest. The South posted a 9.0 percent
decrease following an unsustainably largegain in the previous month.
The inventory of new homes for sale
edged up slightly to 161,000 units in May,which is a 4.1-month supply at the currentsales pace.
Builders and Lumber
Dealers See Shortagesof Building Materials
Home builders and lumber dealers are
reporting significant shortages of keyhome building materials such as lumber
and wall board, according to recentsurveys by the National Association of
Home Builders (NAHB) and the NationalLumber and Building Material DealersAssociation (NLBMDA).
“Supply constraints are one of thebarriers to a more robust recovery,” said
NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe.“The shortages and price increases
reported by both home builders andlumber dealers are particularly concerninggiven that the current rate of construction
is still far below what would be considerednormal or necessary to meet underlying
demand.”Among builders, the highest incidence
of shortages was for oriented strandboard (OSB), with 22 percent of buildersreporting shortages, followed by wall
board (20 percent), framing lumber (18
percent) and plywood (18 percent). The
builder results come from specialquestions added to the monthly surveythat serves as the basis for the
NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index(HMI), which is widely viewed as a key
indicator of the overall strength of thehome building market.
With the exception of wall board, thelumber dealers reported greatershortages of these products than the
home builders. Among lumber dealers, 27to 28 percent reported shortages of OSB
and plywood, 36 percent reportedshortages of framing lumber and 12
percent reported shortages of wall board.The dealer results come from a specialsurvey of NLBMDA's members, who
operate single or multiple lumber yardsand component plants and deal in many
of the same products that NAHBmembers purchase.
Both the builder and lumber dealersurveys asked about shortages of 24specific building products and materials.
For most of the products, the share ofbuilders reporting a shortage was
considerably higher in May of 2013 thanin 2011 or 2012. The only exceptions were
copper wire, vinyl siding, HVACequipment, insulation and structuralinsulated panels.
“The shares of reported shortages are
not as high now as they were in 2004 or2005, but the increases since 2012 arequite significant, especially when you take
the early stage of the housing recoveryinto account,” said Crowe. “In 2004 and2005 the home building industry was
producing over 1.8 million new homes ayear, while the current rate of new
housing starts is still below 1 million.”With the exception of concrete-related
products, a larger share of lumber dealersthan builders reported price increases inbuilding materials over the past six
months. On average, builders reported a5.17 percent increase in the materials that
go into a house over the past six months.Most lumber dealers reported that the
prices of the products they handle hadincreased on average by 10 percent ormore over the past six months.
“While a nascent housing recovery isunderway, as reflected by the modest
increase in sales by dealers, it’s clear thatthe ongoing material shortages and price
increases being reported by dealerscontinue to be a cause for concern as wemove into the latter half of 2013,” said
Michael O’Brien, NLBMDA president andCEO.
NEWS
Advertise in the
Builders OutlookCall Margaret at the
El Paso Association of Builders915-778-5387
Builders utlookwww.elpasobuilders.com www.epbuilders.org
2013
issue 3
308*/(-"#034)035"(&4*/"--
'"$&540'5)&3&4*%&/5*"-$0/4536$5*0/4&$503"3&*.1&%*/(
5)&)064*/("/%&$0/0.*$
3&$07&3:"$$03%*/(50"/&8
4637&:$0/%6$5&%#:5)&"5*0/"-
440$*"5*0/0'0.&6*-%&34
=)&4637&:0'063 .&.#&34
4)0845)"54*/$&6/&0'
3&4*%&/5*"-$0/4536$5*0/'*3.4"3&
3&1035*/("/*/$3&"4*/(/6.#&30'
4)035"(&4*/"--"41&$540'5)&
*/%6453:<'30.$"31&/5&34
&9$"7"5034'3".&34300'&34"/%1-6.#&3450#3*$,-":&34
#6*-%*/(."*/5&/"/$&."/"(&34
"/%8&"5)&3*;"5*0/803,&34)&
4".&)0-%4536&'03
46#$0/53"$5034>4"*%)*&'
$0/0.*45"7*%308&
)&4637&:"-40'06/% 5)"5.03&5)"/)"-'0'5)*-%&343&1035&%
5)"5-"#034)035"(&407&35)&1"45
4*9.0/5)4)"7&$"64&%5)&.50
1":)*()&38"(&40346#$0/53"$503
#*%4504&$63&130+&$54"/%
$0/4&26&/5-:503"*4&)0.&
13*$&403&07&31&3$&/50'5)*-%&344637&:&%&91&3*&/$&%
%&-":4*/$0.1-&5*/(130+&$540/
5*.&1&3$&/5)"%50 563/%08/
40.&130+&$54"/%1&3$&/5-045
03$"/$&--&%4"-&4"4"3&46-50'
3&$&/5-"#034)035"(&4
"350'5)&3&"40/'03 5)&-"#034)035"(&4$"/#&"553*#65&%505)&
'"$55)"5."/:4,*--&%3&4*%&/5*"-
$0/4536$5*0/803,&348&3&'03$&%
504&&,&.1-0:.&/5&-4&8)&3&
%63*/(5)&3&$&44*0/"/%"3& /0
-0/(&3$633&/5-:"7"*-"#-&=!)"564&%50#& )*()1":*/(
4,*--&%+0#47"/*4)&%"4#6*-%&34
"$30445)&/"5*0/8&/50650'
#64*/&44038&3&'03$&% 50-&5803,&34(0>4"*%)"*3."/
*$,6%40/")0.*-%&3'30.
)"3-055&
)&-0440'5&/40'5)064"/%40'
)064*/(+0#4.64)300.&%50
.03&5)"/.*--*0/%63*/( 5)&
1&",0'5)&%08/563/63*/(5)*41&3*0%."/:53"%&43&53"*/&%
$0/4536$5*0/803,&34"/%5)&:"3&
/053&563/*/(505)&3&4*%&/5*"-
$0/4536$5*0/4&$503
&"/8)*-&"-"$,0'#6*-%"#-&
-054"/%*/$3&"4&%$0454'03
."5&3*"-4"/%-"#03"3&"-40$0/53*#65*/(505)&130#-&."45)&
*/'3"4536$563&5)"546110354)0.&
#6*-%*/(.07&4503&&45"#-*4)
*54&-''0--08*/(5)&80345)064*/(
%08/563/4*/$&5)&3&"5
&13&44*0/308&4"*%
0)&-1.&&55)&(308*/(%&."/%'034,*--&%-"#038*5)*/5)&
)064*/(4&$5035)&0.&6*-%&34
/45*565&*/1"35/&34)*18*5)
1307*%&4$"3&&353"*/*/(
"/%+0#1-"$&.&/5*/5)*-%*/(
*/%6453:0''&34"/"33":0'1035"#-&13&"113&/5*$&4)*1
53"*/*/(130(3".4*/" 7"3*&5:0'
4,*--&%53"%&45)"5$"/#&
$6450.*;&%50.&&55)&803,'03$&/&&%40'$0..6/*5*&4"$30445)&
/"5*0/3&(6-"3-:1-"$&4
"11309*."5&-:1&3$&/50'*54
456%&/5(3"%6"5&4*/+0#4*/5)&
#6*-%*/(4&$503
=!&"3&3".1*/(61 063&''0354
5053"*/%*7&34&1016-"5*0/4"/%1-"$&5)&.*/+0#450.&&55)&
(308*/(%&."/%0'5)*-%*/(
4&$503>4"*%3&4*%&/5"/%
0)/06340/
=7&/*/"1&3*0% 0'3&-"5*7&-:
)*()6/&.1-0:.&/58&45*--/&&%
50$0.1-&.&/5063+0#53"*/*/(&''0354#:#3*/(*/(*/'03&*(/
803,&3450.&&55)&/&&%40'
)0.*-%&34"/%)0.:&34>
"%%&%6%40/
)&803,&34)035"(&4"3&/05
0/-:4-08*/(5)&)064*/(3&$07&3:
#65"-40)635*/(+0#"/% &$0/0.*$(3085)
"5*0/"--:5)&$0/4536$5*0/0'
4*/(-&'".*-:)0.&4
(&/&3"5&4.03&5)"/ +0#4
"11309*."5&-:.*--*0/*/
8"(&4"/%.03&5)"/ .*--*0/*/'&%&3"-45"5&"/% -0$"-5"9
3&7&/6&4)"5%0&4/?5&7&/$06/5
5)&*/$3&"4&*/"//6"-1301&35:
5"9&45)"5-0$"-.6/*$*1"-*5*&43&-:0/50'6/%4$)00-410-*$&"/%
'*3&'*()5&34
45)&&$0/0.:.&/%41&/561
%&."/%'03)064*/(8*--$0/5*/6&
50(308"4306()-:.*--*0/
)064&)0-%'03."5*0/48&3&
%&-":&%"4"3&46-50'5)&3&"5&$&44*0///03."-&$0/0.*$
5*.&4%&."/%'03/&8)0.&4
4)06-%#&"#065 .*--*0/
"//6"--:
*4"/5*$*1"5*/(505"-
)064*/(45"3540'5)*4:&"3
"/%.*--*0/*/ "45)&."3,&5$0/5*/6&4*54(3"%6"-
3/%
=!&/&&%50-00,)0-*45*$"--:"5
5)&)0.*-%*/(*/'3"4536$563&50
.&&5(308*/("/%'6563&%&."/%>
4"*%6%40/=0"70*%"36/61 */
13*$&4*/)05."3,&54%6&50-"#03*446&48&/&&%50$0.1-&.&/5
063$633&/553"*/*/(130(3".48*5)
"."3,&5#"4&%7*4"4:45&.5)"5
806-%"--08.03&*..*(3"/5450
-&("--:&/5&35)&$0/4536$5*0/
803,'03$&&"$):&"38)&/ 5)&3&*4"%&"35)0'803,&3450 '*--5)&+0#4
5)"5"3&/&&%&%>
GrowingLaborShortagesImpedeHousingandEconomicRecovery
7/28/2019 Builders Outlook 2013 Issue 6
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/builders-outlook-2013-issue-6 6/16
6 Builders Outlook 2013 issue 6
The Economy
Economic Forecast for 2nd Half 2013:
Sunny with Cloudy PeriodsLooking ahead at the second half of2013, the economic news is pretty solid.
The US economy ison the mend, thelabor market is slowlyhealing and houseprices are up about10% from year-agolevels. In addition,Europe (while inrecession) appears tobe holding together,DC budget
brinksmanship is fading, car and light-
truck sales along with consumersentiment are rising, and new homeconstruction continues its steadyascent. The only serious domestic fly inthe ointment is the significant fiscal dragfrom Washington as the result ofsequestration and year-end taxincreases. The biggest foreign drag isEurope’s recession is hurting USexports.
With all this in mind, I expect Q3 GDPto be about 1.75% and Q4 GDP to come
in slightly higher at 2.1%. As for housingstarts, in Q3 they should, for the firsttime in years, exceed a million units(seasonally adjusted and annualized)with single family starts coming in at675,000 and multifamily starts reachinga pace of about 340,000. In Q4 singlefamily starts should hit to 700,000 withmultifamily starts unchanged.
Inflation will remain benign. Thecombination of weak global growth, flatto declining energy and commodityprices, and flat to mildly rising foodprices will keep CPI growth well below
2%. Moreover, the combination of tinyrises in import prices, producer prices,consumer prices and anemic wagegrowth means that personalconsumption expenditure inflation, theFeds preferred inflation measure, willbarely exceed 1%, giving the FederalReserve ample room to continue itsprogram of quantitative easing.
As for jobs, despite an improving labormarket, the unemployment rate at theend of the year will remain above 7%.
And combined with an annual inflationrate of well below 2%, it makes me thinkBernanke and the rest of the votingmembers of the interest rate-settingFederal Open Market Committee willcontinue purchasing $85 billion/month inTreasuries and mortgage-backedsecurities at least through October2013. Any tapering of QE3 willcommence in late 2013 and more likelyin early 2014.
Another reason why QE3 will bemaintained in that due to weak wagegrowth, consumer spending is rising
quite slowly and is being fueled, at leastin part, by a decline in the personalsavings rate which now stands at ascant 2.5%. Of course rising stockprices, improving home values andeasing credit market conditions are alsoaiding the rise in consumer spending.But a sudden rise in interest rates couldderail these positive developments andweaken manufacturing, which iscurrently neither expanding norcontracting. As such, the risk is simply
not worth the return, at least for now.What would change my thinking about
QE3 would be consistent monthly non-farm payroll job growth of greater than187,000. If we manage to achieve that,the Fed would likely reduce the amountof its monthly bonds purchases andinterest rates would rise. However,given a growing economy, the rate riseswould not be growth-sapping and I putthe chances of a new recession at nomore than 10%. In the meantime, I lookforward to continued, slow and steadyimprovement the rest of the year.
Have a wonderful summer and seeyou in August! (Remember, I will not bewriting an article for July).
Elliot Eisenberg, Ph.D. is President of GraphsandLaughs, LLC and can be reached at [email protected] daily 70 word economics and policy blog can be seen at www.econ70.com.
Elliot Eisenberg
is your retrementplan makng everydollar count?The El Paso Association of Builders is proud to now offer an
individualized retirement plan created for you.
ThE EPAB MEMBEr rETirEMEnT PlAn
Eve f you aeady ave a etemet pa pace, t s we wot you
tme to tak to us about te ew optos desged fo membes of te E
Paso Assocato of Budes.
We udestad tat we t comes to etemet pag, savg evey
doa ca add up. Tat’s wy we ave pateed wt Empoyee Beefts
of E Paso to offe you te oppotuty to ceate a dvduazed
etemet pa ude te umbea of te E Paso Assocato of Budes
tat ca ep educe set up fees ad ote assocated expeses.
• ivestmets
• irA’s• 401K
now s te tme to stat maxmzg you pa fo te ext pase of you
fe. let you membesp wt EPAB ep you get tee.
Call (915) 542-0900
for more information today.
Prior to selecting investment options for your plan you should consider the investment objectives, risks, fees and expenses carefully. For this and other important information, you obtainprospectuses for mutual funds, any applicable annuity contract and the annuity's underlying funds, and/or additional disclosure documents from the appropriate retirement plan representative. Readthem carefully.There is no guarantee that participation in any retirement plan will result in a profit or that your account will outperform a self-managed portfolio. Please consult with your financialplanner, attorney and/or tax adviser as needed.
7/28/2019 Builders Outlook 2013 Issue 6
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/builders-outlook-2013-issue-6 7/16
72013 ISSUE 6 Builders Outlook
Call 778-5387
for more information today.
7/28/2019 Builders Outlook 2013 Issue 6
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/builders-outlook-2013-issue-6 8/16
Builders utlook on the scene |
The 2013 Parade of Homes kicked offwith a preview party on June 21. Nearly1300 visitors entered the Parade site thatnight and enjoyed beautiful weather andgreat food and drink. The Parade ofHomes is located on the Westside of El
Paso in a HUNT community named theFalls at Cimarron. This planned communi-ty features spectacular views of the uppervalley and the Franklin Mountains. Homesin the Parade range from the high $200’sto the mid $400K depending on who built itand the amenities they present. “Weoffered the El Paso Association of Buildersa really beautiful area to hold the Paradeof Homes,” said Kathy Parry, Director ofBuilder Relations Southwest CommunityDevelopment for HUNT. “The buildershave done a great job getting these homesready to show and sell and as you can seefrom the throngs of visitors we have a realpent up demand for this,” she continued.
“I am just blown away with all the differ-
ent homes and the detail that was put intoeach one of them,” said Edmundo Dena,President of the El Paso Association ofBuilders (EPAB). “We can’t thank thebuilders and HUNT enough for the workthey have done to get us this show,” hecontinued. Thirteen builders joined in theeffort and each one built their home insteps that were something to see. “If youwould have told me that all these homeswould have been done on time I wouldhave said you’re crazy,” said Frank Torres,chairman for this year’s Parade. “As abuilder myself I know the stress thatcomes with doing a show like this, and itcan be a real problem as the time getsshorter. I think these builders did an out-standing job all the way around,” Torrescontinued.
The 2013 POH features these custombuilders: Palo Verde Homes, PuntoLiving, Pointe Homes, Icon CustomHomes, Winton/Flair, Phillips Homes,Joseph Homes, Trinity Homes, QualityCraft Homes, Crown Heritage Homes, RCBaeza, Bella Vista Custom Homes, and M
A Homes. Each is different with a person-ality designed to fit a variety of wants.With a Parade Home the buyer gets addi-tional value because vendors and suppli-ers are more apt to showcase the latestwares and provide a good price point tothe builder. Parade homes resale values
often are higher according to agents andso the value continues long after the initialpurchase.
As for the preview party the interest washigh on the homes, but it was about see-ing old friends and making new ones aswell. “I can tell you that I think this is thebest preview party in thirty years,” saidpast President Mark Dyer. “I knowbecause I haven’t missed anysince that time,” he went on. As theparty wound down one thing remainedclear: this was long overdue. “I am soappreciative of the HUNT community andall the builders, volunteers and suppliers,”said Ray Adauto, Executive Vice PresidentEPAB. “I want to single out Frank Torres,Isela Torres, and Margaret Adauto for theirhard work at the preview,” he continued.“Frank deserves a huge thank you fromevery member for the unselfish way he putthis together,” Adauto continued.
The POH continues until July 7 withhours of presentation Monday-Friday 3-7pm, Saturday and Sunday 11-7. Entry is$5 for anyone over the age of 12.
2013 Parade of Homes Punto Living
Philips Homes
Palo Verde Homes
Icon Homes
Flair Homes
RC Baeza
Quality Craft Homes
7/28/2019 Builders Outlook 2013 Issue 6
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/builders-outlook-2013-issue-6 9/16
2013 issue 6
Trinity Homes
Pointe Homes MA Homes
Joseph Homes
Bella Vista
Crown Heritage
of Texas
TM
+
www.elpasobuilders.com
7/28/2019 Builders Outlook 2013 Issue 6
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/builders-outlook-2013-issue-6 10/16
10 Builders Outlook 2013 issue 6
During National HomeownershipMonth in June, the NationalAssociation of Home Builders(NAHB) is telling young people thatthe time is right to buy a home, andthe nation’s builders are building thehomes they want.
“As the economy recovers andyoung people who had to live athome with their parents moveforward with their lives and achievetheir dreams of homeownership,home builders are delivering homesthat cater to the floor plans, featuresand affordability that this generation
desires,” said NAHB Chairman RickJudson, a home builder anddeveloper from Charlotte, N.C.
More than 80 percent ofGeneration Y home buyers—peopleborn in 1977 or later—said inNAHB’s 2012 consumer preferencesurvey they prefer a highly energyefficient home that results in lowerutility bills during the home’s lifetimeover a lower-priced home withoutenergy efficient features. Today’snew homes feature ENERGYSTAR-rated appliances; windows,doors and insulation that bettercontrol the home’s interior climate;and other modern components such
as tankless water heaters andHVAC systems that save costs onutility bills.
And cost-conscious young buyerswill be happy to hear that a newhome actually costs less to maintainthan an older home. An NAHB studyfound that homes built before 1960have average maintenance costs of$564 a year, while a home built after2008 averages $241. Plus,mortgage rates are still very low,bolstering affordability for homebuyers.
Generation Y buyers favor mediaand game rooms more than anyother specialty rooms for their nexthome. New homes today not onlycontain these spaces, they areoutfitted with the state-of-the-artelectronic and wiring componentsthat can accommodate high-definition televisions, full-housesound systems, hard-wired fire andsecurity alarms and more.
Young buyers can check outmany of the outstanding designsand features being included inhomes built by NAHB members atour social media communitiesf a c e b o o k . c o m / h o m e b u i l d r s ,pinterest.com/nahbhome andgoogle.com/+nahb. They can also
access home buying and homebuilding information and resourceson NAHB’s website atnahb.org/forconsumers.
The time has never been betterfor young people to become homeowners, whether it be a new homeor existing,” said Judson. “There areoutstanding opportunities in thecurrent market, with near record lowinterest rates, competitive pricesand new homes being built thatinclude open layouts, energyefficient components and otherfeatures that cater to young buyers.”
Trends:
Home BuildersBuilding Homesthat Young BuyersWant
More than 80 percent of Generation Y home buyers—people born in 1977 or later—saidin NAHB’s 2012 consumer preference survey they prefer a highly energy efficient homethat results in lower utility bills during the home’s lifetime over a lower-priced homewithout energy efficient features
7/28/2019 Builders Outlook 2013 Issue 6
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/builders-outlook-2013-issue-6 11/16
112013 issue 6 Builders Outlook
Give your customersthe ‘option of the sun’
Now more than ever,
El Paso home buyers
are planning for the
future.
Border Solar can help
you offer your
customers solar power
as a sensible
alternave.
The future starts
today.Crossing to Clean Energy
www.bordersolar.com
7365 Remcon Circle
El Paso, TX 79912
(915) 613•4168
follow us on twier and
facebook:
BorderSolar
e options builders askedfor are right here.Developed with the backing of the strongest insurance carriersserving the Texas building industry, the exclusive TAB endorsedinsurance program oers new exible options and rates that aremore competitive than ever before.
Program Highlights
ti"wSBUFEBENJUUFEJOTVSBODFDPNQBOJFTTFWFSBMPQUJPOTBWBJMBCMF
t(-PêFSJOHDPWFSBHFGPSQSPQFSUZEBNBHFUIBUSFTVMUTGSPNGBVMUZ defective, or poor workmanship in your work
t(-MJNJUTPGVQUPNJMMJPOBOEIJHIFSBWBJMBCMF
t&YQBOEFEQPMJDZGPSNGPSDPNNFSDJBMQSPKFDUT
t#VJMEFST3JTLNBTUFSQPMJDJFTNPOUIMZSFQPSUJOHBOOVBMBOEPOFTIPUT
t8PSLFST$PNQUXPIJHIMZDPTUFêFDUJWFQSPHSBNT
t&YDFTT-JBCJMJUZGPSDPNNFSDJBMHFOFSBMDPOUSBDUPST
t$PNNFSDJBM6NCSFMMB
Contact your local approved agent today!
www.builder agentn etwork.com
El Paso, Permian Basin and Surrounding Area
)6#*OUFSOBUJPOBM*OTVSBODF4FSWJDFT-BODF7BO%FNBO$-$4
www.hubinternational.com
NO W is t he bes t t i me
to b u y yo u r ne w
ho me i n E l Paso !
A ho ra es e l
t ie m po pa ra
co m p ra r
u na casa n ue va
e n E l Paso !
Yo u r Ne w Ho me
S u Casa N ue va
Reserve your advertising space in the 2013 edition of Your New Home/Su Casa Nueva
The most complete home buying guide in both English & Spanish
• Unmatched distribution and circulation• Unique dual language layout• Great advertising opportunity
Call Margaret today at 778-5387
Experience the service and synergy of our
Westside team. Everyone works together
to make your closing efficient, accurate
and downright enjoyable.
WEST 5500 North Desert, Suite A-2 (915) 225-8300
stewart.com/el-paso
Your Stewart Westside home team.
We’ll Get You
Home
7/28/2019 Builders Outlook 2013 Issue 6
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/builders-outlook-2013-issue-6 12/16
7/28/2019 Builders Outlook 2013 Issue 6
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/builders-outlook-2013-issue-6 13/16
7/28/2019 Builders Outlook 2013 Issue 6
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/builders-outlook-2013-issue-6 14/16
Summer is officially here and theheat proves it. After so muchactivity over the last few monthsmany of our associate membersare now working with the Parade ofHomes builders, getting them readyand hopping for some really goodthings from that. I know that we
look forward to doing the Paradebut it’s a lot of work. I would like tothank many of you who will bemanning the ticket booth andhelping the association with yourefforts.
Our next official event is comingup July 10 as we go out to Bowl ElPaso for some indoor fun. Teams
are forming and it’s easy to getgoing with a four person team, orperhaps you’d like to be a KING Pinand get a team plus do someadvertising with us. Anyway, we’relooking forward to it.
We won’t have a meeting in Julybut I am calling for one August 5, so
put the date on your calendar.Again if you’re going out onvacation or taking a short tripsomewhere around here be carefuland enjoy yourself.
14 Builders Outlook 2013 issue 6
Sam ShallenbergerWestern Wholesale Supply
Associates Council
7/28/2019 Builders Outlook 2013 Issue 6
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/builders-outlook-2013-issue-6 15/16
I execuTive oFFicerS
ednd Dna – Psdnt
Accent Homes
Fank Ts – v Psdnt
GMF Custom Homes
edga mntl – Stay/Tas
Palo Verde Homes
Sa Shallnbg – Assats cha
Western Wholesale
Fank Ays- idat Past PsdntCisco Homes
ray Adat – et v Psdnt
El Paso Association of Builders
I couNciL/commiTTee cHAirS
Assats cnl
Sam Shallenberger
Bld PAc
Randy Bowling
Dst Gn Bldng cnl
Javier Ruiz
Land us cnl
Sal Masoud
Yng Dsgn Awad
John Chaneyrdls cnl
Rudy Guel
mbshp rtntn
Mike Santamaria, Greg Bowling
Fnan ctt
Edgar Montiel
Wn’s cnl
Lorraine Huit
I ADviSorY To THe BoArD
J. Crawford Kerr, Attorney, Firth, Johnston
& Martinez
I BoArD oF DirecTorS
Juanita Garcia, Icon Custom Builders
Samira Gonzalez, Edwards Homes
Walter Lujan, Dawco Construction
Carlos Villalobos, Pointe Homes
Don Rassette, Rassette Homes
Beverly Clevenger, Automated Division 6 Builders
Frank Spencer, Aztec Contractors
Kathy Parry, Hunt Communities
Sal Masoud, Del Rio Engineering
Robert L. Foster,
Southwest Land Development Services
Leti Navarette, Custom Dream Homes
Linda Troncoso, TR-Engineering
Lance VanDeman, Hub International
John Chaney, Passage Supply
Joe Bernal, El Paso Employee Benefits
Ken Wade, El Paso Building Materials
Ruben Orquiz, MTI Ready Mix
Kathy Carrillo, Pioneer Bank
Henry Tinajero, West Star Bank
Paul Zacour, Zacour & Associates
Chuck Gabriel, Carpets West
Ted Escobedo, Snappy Publishing
Lorraine Huit, Cardel Design
Javier Ruiz, Border Solar & Senercon
2012 Bld mb of Th Ya
Frank Arroyos
Cisco Homes
2012 Pat c Awad
Mike Santamaria
Mountain Vista Homes
2012 Assat of Th Ya
Sam Shallenberger
Western Wholesale Supply
Jhn Shatzan Awad
Hunt Companies
Hnay Lf mbs
Rudy Guel
Brad Roe
Cliff Anthes
Wayne Grinnell
Chester Lovelady
Don Henderson
Anna Gil
Past Psdnts
cttd t S
ePAB mssn Statnt:
The El Paso Association of Builders is a
federated professional organization representing
the home building industry, committed to
enhancing the quality of life in our community by
providing affordable homes of excellence and
value.
The El Paso Association of Builders is a
501C(6) trade organization.
© 2013 Builder’s Outlook
is published and distributed for the
El Paso Association of Builders
by Snappy Publishing
240 Thunderbird • Suite C
El Paso • Texas • 79912 915-820-2800
6046 Surety Dr. El Paso, TX 79905
915-778-5387 • Fax: 915-772-3038
Greg Bowling
Kelly Sorenson
Mark Dyer
Mike Santamaria
John Cullers
Randy Bowling
Doug Schwartz
Robert Baeza
Bobby Bowling, IV
Rudy Guel
Anna Gil
Bradley Roe
Bob Bowling, III
E. H. Baeza
Hershel Stringfield
ITAB STATe DirecTorS
Doug Borrett, Karam Co., Life Director
Randy Bowling, Tropicana Homes
INATioNAL DirecTorS
Bobby Bowling IV.
Demetrio Jimenez
NATioNAL ASSociATioN oF
Home BuiLDerS
(800) 368-5242
TexAS ASSociATioN oF
BuiLDerS
(800)252-3625
www.elpasobuilders.comwww.epbuilders.org
Builders utlook
7/28/2019 Builders Outlook 2013 Issue 6
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/builders-outlook-2013-issue-6 16/16
Hunt is developing family focused neighborhoods
in both east and west El Paso.
Our communities feature amenities such as
neighborhood parks, walking trails, bike paths,
and landscaped roadways.
Only in a community by Hunt will you find home
options for everyone – from the first-time buyer
to those searching for their ultimate dream home.
www.huntcompanies.com
DEVELOPING DREAMS.IN EAST AND WEST
EL PASO.
EAST Horizon MesaEastlake Boulevard to Horizon Mesa Boulevard
Emerald EstatesEastlake Boulevard to Emerald Park Drive
Emerald PassEastlake Boulevard to Emerald Sands Drive
Mission Ridge www.liveatmissionridge.comI-10 and Eastlake Boulevard
WEST Cimarron www.liveatcimarron.comHelen of Troy at Redd Road