Building an “East Asian Community” in Vain

Japan’s Power Shift and Economic Regionalism in the New Millennium

Hiroyuki HoshiroInstitute of Social Science, TOKYO University

1 Japan’s Regime Shift and “East Asian Community” 2 Japan’s EPA Policy: Current States 3 Three Societal Interests over Economic Regionalism

Business Agriculture Organized Labor

4 Japan’s government Change and Three Societal Actors

5 (Tentative) Conclusion and Expectation

Outline

Japan’s Government Change LDP (Liberal Democratic Party) →DPJ (Democratic Party of

Japan) in August 2009 New Prime Minister Hatoyama’s Two Pet Foreign Policies

Equal Japan-US Relationship Building an “East Asian Community”

→ No Substantial Progress: Why?? East Asian Community = EPA (Economic Partnership Agreement) East Asia = ASEAN + 6 (China, Japan, South Korea, Australia, India,

NZ)

Japan’s Regime Shift and “East Asian Community”

Japan’s EPA: Current States

Thailand’s and India’s demand “to allow nurses and careworkers to work in

Japan” →No agreements made

No mentions with “East Asian Community” in Naoto Kan’s policy speech in January 2011

Japan’s EPA: some evidences

What are important factors promote/prevent economic regionalism　 in East Asia?

Domino (Baldwin) Norm, Idea (Acharya) Power Relations (Galia )

→Domestic Interest Groups Land, capital, and lobor

Previous studies

Export Industries →In favor of Free Trade Nippon Keidanren (1300 leading firms & 130 major

industrial organizations ) supports EPA with East Asia

Domestic Industries → Japan Textile Federation (JTF) →Supports EPA Japan Chamber of Commerce and Industry (small

and medium firms) also supports “Big Business Chance”

Three Societal Interests over Economic Regionalism –Firms--

Well-organized Japanese agriculture groups →Strongly Oppose to Tree Trade Japan Agricultural Cooperatives (JA) → Oppose,

and/ or request “exceptional measure”--excluding rice, starch, and diary products from agreements–

Organized labor → oppose to EPA (mobilizing foreign workers) Rengo (biggest labor union)

Three Societal Interests over Economic Regionalism –Agriculture and Labor--

Three Societal Interests over Economic Regionalism

Farmers

Big Business,Medium and Small Firms

Labor Union

EPACON PRO

So called “agricultural policy triangle”

Government Change in 2009 Destroyed this triangle?? →NO

Japan’s government Change and Tree Societal Actors

JA LDP’s zoku (influential Diet members)

MAFF (Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries)

Agriculture and DPJ

1996 2000 2003 2005 20090

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

agriculture→LDPagriculture→DPJ

Year

Vot

e %

Some agricultural groups (e.g. In Aomori, Nagano, and Saga) changed support from LDP to DPJ

DPJ’s policy proposal on the “creation of Individual (household) income support for agriculture system”

DPJ’s Manifesto in 2009“measures (to promote the conclusion of EPAs) will not include any which are detrimental to the safety and stable supply of food, increasing Japan’s food self-sufficiency ration, and the development of Japan’s agricultural industry and its farming villages”(This sentence did not exist in the 2005 Manifesto)

Agriculture and DPJ

Agriculture and LDP/DPJ

Farmers

EPACON PRO

LDP

DPJ

Organized Labor and DPJ

1996 2000 2003 2005 20090

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Labor Union→LDPLabor Union→DPJ

Year

Vot

e %

Organized Labor and DPJ

Organized Labor and LDP/DPJ

Labor Union

EPACON PRO

LDP

DPJ

DPJ’s policy to “ban political donations by corporations and other organizations” in order to “end public distrust of politics” (2009 Manifesto)

Business Groups and LDP/DPJ

Business Groups and LDP/DPJ

Business Groups and LDP/DPJ

Big Business,Medium and Small Firms

EPACON PRO

LDP

DPJ

Three Societal Interests and LDP over EPA

Farmers

Big Business,Medium and Small Firms

Labor Union

EPACON PRO

LDP

Three Societal Interests and DPJ over EPA

Farmers

Big Business,Medium and Small Firms

Labor Union

EPACON PRO

DPJ

Economic Regionalism will not be progressed under the DPJ government No support from Business (in favor of EPA) Support from Agriculture and Labor (oppose to EPA)

→No strong Force to pursue EPA, “in vain”

Earthquake……

Next step is to trace the process of policy-making and negotiations

(Tentative) Conclusion and Expectation