Building Scientific and Technical Capacity in Developing Countries to

Support Disaster Risk Reduction

Tuna Onur1 and Rengin Gök2 1Onur Seemann Consulting, Inc.

2Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory

This work was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.

This is LLNL-PRES-730118

Earthquake Resilience: From Science to Policy

Big Gaps in Each of These in Developing Countries

Seismic Cooperation Program (SCP)

• Seismic Cooperation Program of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL)

• Long-Term Support for Local Seismologists and Engineers (Middle East, Central Asia, Caucasus)

• All Elements of Building Code Development

Capacity Building

Education & Training Equipment & Instrumentation

Measurements & Data Science & Engineering

Probabilistic Hazard Engineering Design & Analyses

Disaster Risk Research

Codes & Regulations

Construction Codes Earthquake Design Loads Building Code Compliance

Building Code Development – Challenges

Developing Countries

Coordination • Government • Private Sector

Modernization • Science and research • Code updates

Enforcement • Responsibility • Consequences

Developed Countries

Overarching Policy • Consistency among

construction codes Expectations

• Code developers • Public

Performance-based codes • Explicit criteria

Developing Countries

Coordination • Government • Private Sector

Modernization • Science and research • Code updates

Enforcement • Responsibility • Consequences

Developed Countries

Overarching Policy • Consistency among

construction codes Expectations

• Code developers • Public

Performance-based codes • Explicit criteria

Building Code Development – Challenges

Coordination of Building Codes

Building codes are typically developed at the national level but enforced at the local level.

• Formal process – Broad-based code committee (national and local

governments, researchers, practicing engineers, ...)

– Clear performance goals for the code; tied to public-safety policy

– Development lifecycle and public review process

Earthquake Resilience: From Science to Policy

Big Gaps in Each of These in Developing Countries

SCP PSHA Project Regions

Central Asia Caucasus

Example Project 1: Iraq (Completed)

• Probabilistic seismic hazard studies conducted over a three-year period

• Intensive training program: One in Erbil, Iraq (2014) and two in the US (2015, 2016)

• Resulting hazard maps used in Iraq’s building code update

• Through continuing collaboration and support, locals have taken over the work

Example Project 1: Iraq (Completed)

Example Project 2: Caucasus (In Progress)

• Overview of PSHA in a workshop in Georgia (2016) with attendees from Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan and Turkey.

• A non-technical half-day symposium attracted interest of government officials in downstream uses of PSHA results.

• First in-depth hands-on workshop next month in Georgia.

Seismic Source Characterization

• Earthquake catalogue

– Reliable earthquake location and Mw calculations

• Active fault database

– Fault geometry & activity rates

Ground Motion Characterization

• Strong ground shaking characterization

– Compilation of recorded strong motion data

– Regional attenuation characteristics

– Empirical and/or simulation-based ground motion models

Source: Pasyanos et al. (2009)

Example Project 3: Central Asia (In Planning)

• Planning meeting in Kazakhstan (2016) with participants from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.

• Earthquake bulletin/catalogue digitization, revision and unification and their use in PSHA

• Local interest in downstream benefits:

1. Modernization and possibly harmonization of building codes in the region, and

2. Understanding risk in the region

• Probability and statistics

– Return periods, exceedance probabilities, Poisson distribution, etc.

• Software tools

– Signal processing, calculation of response spectra

– Development of PSHA components, running analyses

• GIS capability

– Source characterization, mapping hazard

Computational Framework

Outcomes for the Countries

Data

• Weak- and strong-motion instrument deployment, data collection and processing

• Robust earthquake catalogue including earthquake relocations & newly calculated Mw

Outcomes for the Countries

Knowledge

• Long-term training, capacity building and support for local seismologists and engineers

local ownership

• Probabilistic assessment of seismic hazard with local input

Enabling building code modernization

Road to Disaster Resilience…

• Risk mitigation through retrofitting buildings and infrastructure...

• Build back better...

• Risk resilient infrastructure...

• First step: Robust building codes!

Thank you!

Questions/Comments? tuna@onurseemann.com