probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of iraq

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for Iraq Using Complete

Earthquake Catalogue Files

A. S. AMEER,1 M. L. SHARMA,1 H. R. WASON,1 and S. A. ALSINAWI2

Abstract—Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) has been carried out for Iraq. The earthquake

catalogue used in the present study covers an area between latitude 29�–38.5� N and longitude 39�–50� E

containing more than a thousand events for the period 1905–2000. The entire Iraq region has been divided

into thirteen seismogenic sources based on their seismic characteristics, geological setting and tectonic

framework. The completeness of the seismicity catalogue has been checked using the method proposed by

STEPP (1972). The analysis of completeness shows that the earthquake catalogue is not complete below

Ms ¼ 4.8 for all of Iraq and seismic source zones S1, S4, S5, and S8, while it varies for the other seismic zones.

A statistical treatment of completeness of the data file was carried out in each of the magnitude classes.

The Frequency Magnitude Distributions (FMD) for the study area including all seismic source zones were

established and theminimummagnitude of complete reporting (Mc) were then estimated. For the entire Iraq

the Mc was estimated to be about Ms ¼ 4.0 while S11 shows the lowest Mc to be about Ms ¼ 3.5 and the

highest Mc of about Ms ¼ 4.2 was observed for S4. The earthquake activity parameters (activity rate k, bvalue, maximum regional magnitude mmax) as well as the mean return period (R) with a certain lower

magnitudemmin ‡ m along with their probability of occurrence have been determined for all thirteen seismic

source zones of Iraq. The maximum regional magnitude mmax was estimated as 7.87 ± 0.86 for entire Iraq.

The return period for magnitude 6.0 is largest for source zone S3 which is estimated to be 705 years while the

smallest value is estimated as 9.9 years for all of Iraq.

The large variation of the b parameter and the hazard level from zone to zone reflects crustal heterogeneity

and the high seismotectonic complexity. The seismic hazard near the source boundaries is directly and

strongly affected by the change in the delineation of these boundaries. The forces, through which the

geological structure along the plate boundary in Eastern and Northeastern Iraq are evolved, are still active

causing stress-strain accumulation, deformation and in turn producing higher probabilities of earthquake

activity. Thus, relatively large destructive earthquakes are expected in this region. The study is intended to

serve as a reference for more advanced approaches and to pave the path for the probabilistic assessment of

seismic hazard in this region.

Key words: PSHA, earthquake catalogue characteristics, b value, mmax, Iraq.

Introduction

The ultimate goal of seismic hazard assessment for a particular site or area is to

condense seismotectonic knowledge and experience into parameters used for

1 Department of Earthquake Engineering, IIT Roorkee, Roorkee, India.

E-mail: [email protected] Middle East Seismological Forum, Reston, VA, U.S.A.

Pure appl. geophys. 162 (2005) 951–9660033 – 4553/05/050951 – 16DOI 10.1007/s00024-004-2650-y

� Birkhauser Verlag, Basel, 2005

Pure and Applied Geophysics

predicting ground motion which in turn can be applied by engineers in design and

subsequent earthquake resistant construction. The seismic hazard has to be

considered for sensitive structures like dams, mines, nuclear power plants, under-

ground depositories for radioactive waste, oil platforms, etc.

The primary advantage of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is that it

integrates over all seismicity: temporal and spatial along with ground motions to

calculate a combined probability of exceedence that incorporates the relative

frequencies of occurrence of different earthquakes and ground-motion characteris-

tics. In practicality in any earthquake catalogue the quality of the different parts

(periods and areas) varies significantly with respect to completeness, magnitude

reliability, homogeneity and location accuracy. In an ‘‘edgy’’ formulation one may

say that on the basis of an incomplete, inhomogeneous and inaccurate catalogue, the

science is challenged with the task of deriving parameters that confidently reflect the

seismic potential of the region.

Specifically, the estimation of the maximum regional magnitude mmax and its

occurrence in space and time is the most difficult of the seismic hazard parameters to

assess. Mostly the methods employed in estimating mmax, are dependent on the

extrapolation of the classical, log-linear, frequency-magnitude Gutenberg-Richter

relationship. To avoid confusion mmax, is defined here as the upper limit of

magnitude for a given region. Also, synonymous with the upper limit of earthquake

magnitude, is the magnitude of the largest possible earthquake. The estimation of

mmax is necessarily required for engineering applications and seismic hazard analyses

(see KIJKO, 2002). In addition to reviewing newly available data for inclusion in

updated probabilistic analyses, the primary aim of the present study is to consider the

potentially damaging earthquakes throughout Iraq and to consider new models of

FMD (Frequency Magnitude Distributions) for Iraq. PSHA is conducted for Iraq

taking into account the newly compiled data set and the new models of FMD, and an

endeavor is made to interpret the results with respect to the various seismogenic

sources present in Iraq.

Geology and Tectonic Setting of Iraq

The study area comprises entire Iraq, which falls in the eastern Arabian Plate.

The Arabian subcontinent plate is one of the Earth’s largest blocks that has held

together and moved many kilometers as a unit since the late Cretaceous, experiencing

relative transitional motion with respect to the Eurasian, African, Somalian, Iranian,

Anatolian, and Aegean plates. The Arabian platform comprises Paleozoic intracr-

atonic basins overlying crystalline basement. The Mesozoic basins were formed as a

result of the late Permian and early Triassic opening of the adjacent Neo-Tethysides

ocean and the development of its passive margins. Tectonic setting of the Arabian

plate indicates that it is almost surrounded by active plate boundaries. The western

952 A. S. Ameer et al. Pure appl. geophys.,

boundary is marked by the left-lateral Dead Sea fault system which extends from the

Gulf of Aqaba in the south to the northern Triple Junction of Cyprus subduction

zone, Bitlis zone and the Dead Sea Transform (BEYDOUN, 1991; ALSINAWI and AL

DILAIMI, 1993).

The Arabian Subcontinent plate is subducted under the Anatolian and Iranian

plates compressing the Tethyesides geosyncline belt as part of the Alpine movement,

which reached its climax in the Tertiary and continued until the Oligocene and early

Pliocene, where the Tethys Sea was completely closed in the region. The Zagros

mountains which are part of the Alpine-Himalayan orogenic system can be divided

into three structural zones: an inner crystalline zone of overthrusting, an imbricate

belt, and a zone of folding often referred to as the simply folded belt (the north and

northeastern parts of the study area). The Taurus belt took an E-W trend in the

north of the study area. These two plate boundaries have complicated patterns and

their seismicity is diffused without sharp borders, and is believed that the forces that

have formed these plate boundaries are still active (Fig. 1) (GHALIB and ALSINAWI,

1974; ALSINAWI, 1988).

The tectonic framework of Iraq (Fig. 1) has a NE-SW classification starting with

(i) the stable shelf restricted by a set of deep faults of AbuJir, Euphrates and Palmyra

fault zones and characterized by a reduced thickness of sedimentary cover. (ii) The

Mesopotamian zone. (iii) The simply folded zone which lies to the northeast of the

Mesopotamian zone, most foldings are buckle folds, e.g., Hatra-Bekhme fault,

Fatha-Houran fault and Diyala faults. (iv) The thrust zone which comprises the

Alpine Euogeosynclinal rocks is characterized by complex thrust structures and

subjected to orogenic movements in late Triassic, upper Cretaceous, Miocene and

Pliocene. Ophiolite facies and flysch sediments ascertained the latest movements. (v)

The Central Iranian zone which is characterized by a chain of Mesozoic and

Cenozoic volcanic.

The region was folded and faulted during the Alpine movement in the Tertiary.

More comprehensive analyses are given by AL NAQIB (1967), BUDAY and JASSIM

(1987), and ALSINAWI (2002).

Database and Seismogenic Sources

The seismicity catalogue has been prepared for the study from various sources

(PDE, Baghdad Seismological Observatory, FAHMI and AL-ABBASI, 1989). The

data have been acquired from PDE’s (Preliminary Determination of Epicenters),

which are routinely updated at the National Earthquake Information Center.

These are eventually replaced by the pruned and final determinations of ISC from

time to time. Further, the database has been updated using the compiled ISC

events from the Baghdad Seismological Observatory. The database consists of

more than 1,000 seismic events spanning the last 95 years from 1905 to 2000. The

Vol. 162, 2005 Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment 953

sizes of events have been re-evaluated in terms of surface wave magnitude ‘‘Ms’’

(either observed or converted from ‘‘mb’’), for further use. Figure 2 illustrates the

compiled data set, grouped into six classes, in the form of histograms per decade

for various magnitude ranges. Examining Figure 2 we can immediately detect the

phenomenal rise in the total number of reported events in the last five decades.

Another interesting feature in Figure 2 is the characteristic exponential behavior

of that group of magnitude classes, especially in the last three decades in the

database.

The study area is divided into various seismic sources which are identified by

using the macro-seismic locations of historic earthquakes and instrumental locations

for the last 95 years. Delineations of the source boundaries are based on neotectonic

Figure 1

Main structural zones of Iraq.


elements and sudden variations in the homogeneity of the seismicity. In total 13-

seismic source zones (S1 to S13) have been identified. The seismic sources so selected

are shown in Figure 3 along with the seismicity plot.

To analyze the nature of the completeness of the data sample in detail, the

entire data set has been grouped in several magnitude classes and each magnitude

class was modeled as a point process in time. The method as given by STEPP

(1972) has been used to check the completeness of data for firstly, Iraq as a whole

as shown in Figure 4 and secondly, for the entire 13-seismic source zones S1 to

S13 individually. Figure 4 reveals that the data are complete for magnitudes

(3.6 < Ms > 4.1) and (4.2 < Ms < 4.7) for the last 45 years. For magnitude

Ms > 4.8 the data sets are complete for 95 years. The same procedure was

applied for all 13 seismic source zones and the result of completeness for different

magnitude ranges has been compiled in Table 1. For seismic source zones S10 and

S11 the magnitude range for 3.0 < Ms < 3.5 has also been included, which is

due to the denser networks of seismographs reporting lower magnitudes from

these sources. The analysis of completeness of the updated seismicity file shows

that the earthquake catalogue is not complete below Ms ¼ 4.8 for entire Iraq.

Based on the analysis, similar conclusions have also been drawn for seismic

source zones S1, S4, S5, and S8. The value of Mc for entire Iraq has been

estimated as Ms ¼ 4.0, which varies slightly for the 13 seismic source zones

considered in this study (AMEER et al., 2002a, b).

Figure 2

Annual distribution of earthquales for Iraq 1905–2000, grouped in six magnitude classes.


The FMDs for entire Iraq and for all 13 seismic source zones have been re-

evaluated after correcting for incomplete reporting in the data sample, i.e., by

creating an artificially complete sample of data below the magnitude which was

completely reported over the total 95 years of data. For this purpose Table 1 was

utilized and the complete mean rate of recurrence for each incomplete magnitude

class was used to ‘‘fill in’’ the lower end of FMD. For example Figures 5, 6 and 7

illustrate this treatment for entire Iraq and seismic sources zones S11 and S13

respectively, where the open circles represent the complete data below the

complete magnitude reporting over 95 years and solid circles show the incomplete

data. The regression analysis (least-squares, LS) was then applied to the

incomplete (b-LS incomplete) and complete data sets (b-LS complete) (see

Table 2) to select the minimum magnitude of complete reporting, Mc, as the value

where the FMD graph clearly departs from the straight line plot, while the largest

earthquake in the sample was usually taken to be the upper magnitude. The

better estimates in evaluation of the b-slope after the treatment for incompleteness

have been achieved in sources S7, S11 and S6, which tend to increase the b-slope

to about 27%, 25% and 17%, respectively.

Figure 3

Seismicity map of Iraq during the last 95 years (1905–2000) with Ms ‡ 3.0 (borders outlined) and the area

surrounding it. The seismic source zones used for seismic hazard estimation shown as (S#).


PSHA for IRAQ

Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis allows estimation of the likelihood that

the selected ground motion parameter will be exceeded at a given site, within a

reference time interval (CORNELL, 1968). It represents a powerful tool that

integrates over all earthquake occurrences (in space and time) surrounding a

specific site. In the present paper mmax and other hazard parameters have been

evaluated for earthquakes in Iraq and conterminous regions utilizing the available

maximum possible seismological information. The procedure applied in the study

utilizes solely the complete part of the seismicity database of Iraq for

approximately the last 95 years. The completeness of the data files using the

statistical analysis has been checked in this study and the Mc’s were taken for the

further seismic hazard analysis (as described in earlier sections). KIJKO and

SELLEVOLL (1989, 1992) have developed an approach using both information on

strong events contained in the macroseismic part of the catalogue as well as that

contained in the complete catalogue which contains complete data above a certain

magnitude threshold (TINTI and MULARGIA, 1985). This approach was applied to

Figure 4

Completeness analysis for the entire Iraq region for different magnitude classes.


Table 1

Variability in the Beginning of Completeness Times for Magnitude Ranges

Sources Time period (in years) for various magnitude ranges

Ms ‡6.0 5.4 – 5.9 4.8 – 5.3 4.2 – 4.7 3.6 – 4.1 3.0– 3.5

1 1905–2000 1905–2000 1905–2000 1945–2000 1950–2000 —

2 1905–2000 1905–2000 1945–2000 1955–2000 1955–2000 —

3 1905–2000 1905–2000 1930–2000 1930–2000 1985–2000 —

4 1905–2000 1905–2000 1905–2000 1935–2000 1960–2000 —

5 1905–2000 1905–2000 1905–2000 1940–2000 1955–2000 —

6 1905–2000 1905–2000 1920–2000 1955–2000 1965–2000 —

7 1905–2000 1905–2000 1925–2000 1960–2000 1980–2000 —

8 1905–2000 1905–2000 1905–2000 1925–2000 1945–2000 —

9 1905–2000 1905–2000 1915–2000 1945–2000 1955–2000 —

10 1905–2000 1905–2000 1920–2000 1925–2000 1955–2000 1960–2000

11 1905–2000 1905–2000 1925–2000 1955–2000 1960–2000 1960–2000

12 1905–2000 1905–2000 1915–2000 1945–2000 1980–2000 —

13 1905–2000 1905–2000 1920–2000 1980–2000 1980–2000 —

Ir 1905–2000 1905–2000 1905–2000 1955–2000 1955–2000 —

Figure 5

The frequency magnitude distribution for Iraq.


estimate other hazard parameters for entire Iraq and 13 seismic source zones. A

computer program written by A. Kijko was used for the analysis. Table 3

summarizes the input data used for the estimation of mmax and seismic hazard of

Iraq and those of thirteen seismic source zones.

Results and Discussion

The evaluation of earthquake potential is very sensitive to the estimate of the

regional maximum magnitude mmax. The hazard parameters (parameter b in G-R

equation by maximum likelihood (ML), earthquake activity rate k, and mmax) are

tabulated in Table 4 which shows that the b value on a regional scale is estimated to

be relatively high (about 1.09 ± 0.14) for seismic source zone S3, which represented

the Taurus belt, thus reflecting the high seismotectonic complexity and crustal

heterogeneity of the region. Similarly for seismic source zone S4 it is estimated as

0.49 ± 0.19. The mmax estimated for the whole Iraq region is 7.87 ± 0.86 while the

maximum observed magnitude is Ms ¼ 7.2. For the other thirteen sources in Iraq the

Figure 6

The frequency magnitude distribution for seismic source zone S11.


minimum and maximum estimates for mmax are 5.66 ± 0.33 and 7.92 ± 1.55 (zones

S11 and S8), respectively.

Figure 7

The frequency magnitude distribution for seismic source zone S13.

Table 2

Values after Re-evaluation of FMD for Complete and Incomplete Data Sets

Source b-LS incomplete b-LS complete b-ML

1 0.69 ± 0.02 0.74 ± 0.02 0.72 ± 0.05

2 0.78 ± 0.04 0.81 ± 0.04 0.66 ± 0.06

3 0.79 ± 0.04 0.91 ± 0.04 1.09 ± 0.14

4 0.92 ± 0.09 0.95 ± 0.09 0.49 ± 0.19

5 0.71 ± 0.05 0.81 ± 0.05 0.74 ± 0.13

6 0.75 ± 0.04 0.90 ± 0.04 0.93 ± 0.10

7 0.52 ± 0.03 0.71 ± 0.03 0.95 ± 0.09

8 0.62 ± 0.04 0.66 ± 0.04 0.78 ± 0.10

9 0.73 ± 0.04 0.70 ± 0.02 0.86 ± 0.08

10 0.70 ± 0.03 0.74 ± 0.03 0.60 ± 0.05

11 0.73 ± 0.05 0.97 ± 0.05 0.68 ± 0.05

12 0.90 ± 0.06 1.10 ± 0.04 0.98 ± 0.07

13 0.85 ± 0.06 1.00 ± 0.06 0.77 ± 0.10

Ir 0.84 ± 0.03 0.89 ± 0.02 0.82 ± 0.03


The return period R of the earthquakes with a magnitude equal to or larger

than a certain value, ‘‘Ms’’ is a useful parameter in seismic hazard determination

and has been used as direct input to seismic hazard evaluations. Figure 8 provides

the values of the return period for several ‘‘Ms’’ values starting from Ms ¼ 2.5. It

also illustrates the mean return period for all of Iraq and 13 seismic source zones.

For instance, the return period for Ms ¼ 6.0 is the largest for S3 as 705.3 years,

while the smallest value has been estimated for S2 as 25.3 years and for entire

Iraq as 9.9 years.

It is clear from Table 4 that the value of b is smallest equal to 1.15 ± 0.44 and

1.38 ± 0.12 in seismic source zones S4 and S10, respectively while the highest value

for b has been achieved as 2.75 ± 0.94 in S3 and consequently b-ML values also

change accordingly to 0.49 ± 0.19 and 0.60 ± 0.05 for seismic source zones S4 and

S10 while the b-ML value for S3 is 1.09 ± 0.14. It is important to point out the range

of k’s values as (1.04 ± 0.35 to 12.71±1.60) for 13 seismic source zones while for

entire Iraq as (34.03 ± 1.65).

Considering the values of return period R6.0 one may argue that seismic source S2

is the most active in the whole region. The maxima of different seismic hazard

parameters in different zones reveal the complex tectonic environment of the region

under study. For most of the engineering studies the estimated lifetime is generally 50

to 100 years, and therefore, the probability of occurrence of earthquakes in 50- and

100- years return periods has been estimated and is plotted in Figures 9 and 10 for

further use by earthquake engineers. Figures 9 and 10 provide the probability of

occurrence in 50-year and 100-year return periods, which reveal clearly that the

occurrence of earthquakes with large magnitudes is most likely in the Taurus-Zagros

thrust zones.

Table 3

Input Data for Fourteen Seismic Zones in IRAQ and Surrounding Area

Seismic zone Mc Number of events Standard deviation Max. observed

magnitude

1 3.7 237 0.56 7.30

2 4.0 137 0.57 7.30

3 4.0 58 0.44 6.00

4 4.2 31 0.42 5.70

5 3.9 43 0.49 5.80

6 3.7 89 0.45 6.20

7 3.9 110 0.51 5.80

8 3.8 63 0.58 6.80

9 3.9 122 0.55 6.50

10 3.7 143 0.63 7.30

11 3.5 364 0.49 5.60

12 3.9 189 0.42 6.10

13 3.9 76 0.47 6.00

Ir 4.0 783 0.53 7.20


Table

4

Seism

icHazard

ParametersforIraq

Seism

iczone

kb

b-M

Lm

max

RM

s¼6:0

Pr

(T=

100)M

s¼6:0

18.62±

0.72

1.70±

0.11

0.72±

0.05

7.68±

0.52

34.0

0.9471

24.65±

0.51

1.56±

0.14

0.66±

0.06

7.53±

0.42

25.3

0.9809

34.30±

0.94

2.57±

0.94

1.09±

0.14

6.53±

0.91

705.3

0.1322

41.04±

0.35

1.15±

0.44

0.49±

0.19

5.85±

0.35

——

-—

—-

51.81±

0.41

1.75±

0.31

0.74±

0.13

6.45±

0.77

232.8

0.3492

65.16±

0.88

2.17±

0.23

0.92±

0.10

6.62±

0.64

339.5

0.2551

75.75±

0.76

2.23±

0.22

0.95±

0.09

6.52±

1.10

257.0

0.3217

82.39±

0.37

1.84±

0.23

0.78±

0.10

7.92±

1.55

157.4

0.4702

95.18±

0.60

2.02±

0.19

0.86±

0.08

6.80±

0.51

125.7

0.5486

10

4.13±

0.41

1.38±

0.12

0.59±

0.05

7.51±

0.39

26.5

0.9770

11

14.22±

1.16

1.60±

0.11

0.68±

0.05

5.66±

0.33

——

——-

12

12.71±

1.60

2.31±

0.17

0.98±

0.07

6.99±

1.54

114.3

0.5830

13

3.44±

0.61

1.81±

0.23

0.77±

0.10

6.53±

0.67

127.9

0.5425

Ir34.03±

1.65

1.93±

0.07

0.82±

0.03

7.87±

0.86

9.9

1.0000


Figure 8

Return periods using complete data for fourteen seismic source zones in Iraq.

Figure 9

Probability-magnitude diagram for the fourteen seismic source zones for 50-year return periods for Iraq.


Conclusion

In the present study the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis has been carried

out for the seismically active region of Iraq. The seismicity catalogue has been

prepared for the period 1905–2000. The whole Iraq region has been divided into

thirteen seismic source zones based on their seismic characteristics, geological

setting and tectonic framework. The analysis of completeness of the updated

seismicity file indicates that the earthquake catalogue is not complete below

Ms ¼ 4.8 for entire Iraq and seismic source zones S1, S4, S5, and S8. The Mc

estimated for entire Iraq was Ms ¼ 4.0 and varies slightly for the 13 seismic

source zones. The gradually curved FMDs (as happened for most seismic zones in

Iraq) tend to underestimate Mc, which is indicative of spatial and temporal

heterogeneity of the earthquake catalogue for these seismic zones, making it

necessary to re-evaluate FMDs.

The FMD relation re-evaluated after correcting for incompleteness of entire

Iraq and for most of the seismic source zones shows an increase in b slope. The

better estimates in evaluation of the b slope after the treatment for incompleteness

have been achieved in sources S7, S11 and S6, which tend to increase the b slope

about 27%, 25% and 17%, respectively. For all source zones the slope (b values)

of FMD varies between –0.49 ± 0.19 and –1.09 ± 0.14, with most zones having

values around –0.80, obviously depending on the size and the seismicity of the

source zone. Such type of results poses a major problem in seismic hazard

Figure 10

Probability-magnitude diagram for the fourteen seismic source zones for 50-year return periods for Iraq.


assessment which may be attributed to a recent increase in the level of crustal

stress release, causing an increase in the lower magnitude level which perturbed

the standard b slope.

The maximum regional magnitude mmax has been estimated as 7.87 ± 0.86 for

entire Iraq. The return period for magnitude 6.0 is 705 years; the largest for source S3

years while the smallest value is estimated to be 25 years for source S2. The Zagros-

Taurus thrust zones display high seismic activity, particularly in seismic source zones

S1, S2, S9, and S10. The mmax for these sources is comparatively higher than the

other sources. The seismic hazard near the source boundaries is directly and strongly

affected by the change in the delineation of these boundaries. The forces which have

formed the geological structure along the plate boundary in eastern and northeastern

Iraq are still active, causing stress-strain accumulation, deformation and thus may

foreshadow relatively large destructive earthquakes in the future. The study is

intended to serve as a reference for more advanced approaches and to pave the path

for the probabilistic assessment of the seismic hazard in Iraq.

Acknowledgment

The authors sincerely acknowledge the valuable suggestions and comments from

the anonymous reviewers in the preparation of this paper. The computer program

provided by Dr. Andrzej Kijko is used in this study and is gratefully acknowledged.

The authors are thankful for the assistance provided by Prof. and Head, Department

of Earthquake Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee.

REFERENCES

AL-NAQIB, K. M. (1967), Geology of the Arabian Peninsula Southeastern Iraq, US Geological Survey,

Professional Paper 569 G, 1–47.

ALSINAWI, S. A. (1988), Seismotectonics of Iraq, Engineering Seismology and Earthquake Engineering

Training Course, Baghdad, 1, 21–27 Nov., 1–32.

ALSINAWI, S. A., and AL DILAIMI, J. M. H. (1993), Seismic zoning, seismic sources and seismotectonics of

the Arabian Peninsula, Proc. 5th Inter. Conf. on Natural and Man Made Hazards, Qingado, China.

ALSINAWI, S. A. (2002), Seismicity, Seismotectonics, Crustal Structure and Attenuation Data on Iraq, The

Relemr Meeting, Antakya, Turkey, Dec. 12–14.

AMEER, S. A., SHARMA, M. L., and WASON, H. R. (2002a), Maximum likelihood estimation of seismic

hazard for Iraq from complete data files, Proc. 12th Symp. on Earthquake Engineering, Roorkee, India,

Vol. 1, 306–312.

AMEER, S. A., SHARMA, M. L., and WASON, H. R. (2002b), Completeness of earthquake catalogue and its

implications in seismic hazard estimation—A case study for Iraq, Proc. 12th Sympos. on Earthquake

Engineering, Roorkee, India, Vol. 1, 342–349.

BEYDOUN, Z. R. (1991), Arabian Plate Hydrocarbon Geology and Potential—A Plate Tectonic Approach

Studies in Geology, 33, Am. Assoc. Petroleum Geologists, Tulsa, Oklahoma, USA, pp. 77.

BUDAY, T., and JASSIM, S. Z. (1987), The Regional Geology of Iraq, Tectonism, Magmatism and

Metamorphism V.2. Iraqi Geological Survey and Mineral Investigation Press, Baghdad, pp. 352.


GHALIB, H. A., and ALSINAWI, S. A. (1974), Seismotectonics of the Arabian Peninsula—A Global Tectonic

Approach, Bull. Coll. Sci. 15, 151–169.

CORNELL, C. A. (1968), Engineering Seismic Risk Analysis, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 58, 5, 1583–1606.

FAHMI, K. J., and AL ABBASI, J. N. (1989), Some Statistical Aspects of Earthquake Occurrence in Iraq,

Earthq. Spectra 4, 735–765.

KIJKO, A. (2002), Statistical Estimation of Maximum Regional Earthquake Magnitude mmax, 12th European

Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Sept. 9–13, London.

KIJKO, A., and SELLEVOLL, M. A. (1992), Estimation of Earthquake Hazard Parameters from Incomplete

Data Files. Part II. Incorporation of Magnitude Heterogeneity, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am 82, 1, 120–134.

KIJKO, A., and SELLEVOLL, M. A. (1989), Estimation of Earthquake Hazard Parameters from Incomplete

Data Files. Part I. Utilization of Extreme and Complete Catalogue with Different Threshold Magnitude

Heterogeneity, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 79, 645–654.

STEPP, J. C. (1972), Analysis of the completeness of the earthquake sample in the Puget Sound area and its

effect on statistical estimates of earthquake hazard, Proc. Inter. Conf. Microzonation for safer construct.

Res. Appl., Seattle, Washington, U.S.A. 64, 1189–1207.

TINTI, S., and Mulargia, F. (1985), Effect of Magnitude Uncertainties on Estimating the Parameters in the

Gutenberg-Richter Frequency-magnitude Law, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 75, 1681–1697.

(Received March 10, 2003, accepted March 1, 2004)

To access this journal online:

http://www.birkhauser.ch


probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of iraq

Documents

seismic zones

seismic characteristics

northeastern iraq

entire iraq region

seismicsource zones

seismic source zones

hazard level

study area