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Buildings Sector Bottom-up Load Modeling Eric Wilson Advisory Group Meeting, June 13, 2019

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Page 1: Buildings Sector Bottom-up Load Modeling … · LA100 | 2 Session Goals 1.Become familiar with methodology for buildings sector load modeling 2.Review buildings electrification and

Buildings Sector Bottom-up Load ModelingEric WilsonAdvisory Group Meeting, June 13, 2019

Page 2: Buildings Sector Bottom-up Load Modeling … · LA100 | 2 Session Goals 1.Become familiar with methodology for buildings sector load modeling 2.Review buildings electrification and

LA100 | 2

Session Goals

1. Become familiar with methodology for buildings sector load modeling

2. Review buildings electrification and efficiency load projections

3. Review sample results

Page 3: Buildings Sector Bottom-up Load Modeling … · LA100 | 2 Session Goals 1.Become familiar with methodology for buildings sector load modeling 2.Review buildings electrification and

LA100 | 3

Definition of Buildings Sector Load

For today’s presentation:

Included• Residential buildings• Commercial buildings

Not included• Distributed solar PV• Electric vehicle charging• Demand response• Industry/special loads

Page 4: Buildings Sector Bottom-up Load Modeling … · LA100 | 2 Session Goals 1.Become familiar with methodology for buildings sector load modeling 2.Review buildings electrification and

LA100 | 4

Context: How does load modeling fit in?

Input ModelsMain Scenario Model

Output/ Validation Models

Output Models

Iteration

Buildings load impacts all downstream models

Page 5: Buildings Sector Bottom-up Load Modeling … · LA100 | 2 Session Goals 1.Become familiar with methodology for buildings sector load modeling 2.Review buildings electrification and

LA100 | 5

Building Stock Simulation

Page 6: Buildings Sector Bottom-up Load Modeling … · LA100 | 2 Session Goals 1.Become familiar with methodology for buildings sector load modeling 2.Review buildings electrification and

LA100 | 6

Highly granular modeling of local, regional, and national building stocks

Building stock characteristics

database

Physics-basedcomputer modeling

High-performance computing

++

Page 7: Buildings Sector Bottom-up Load Modeling … · LA100 | 2 Session Goals 1.Become familiar with methodology for buildings sector load modeling 2.Review buildings electrification and

LA100 | 7

EIA Res/Com Energy Consumption Survey NAHB Homebuilder SurveysIECC Historical Energy CodesOther national, regional, and local audit databases

Census Data

Climate Locations

Costs

BuildingCharacteristics

Census American Community Survey (ACS)

EIA Electricity and fuel costsNREL OpenEI.org Utility Rate DatabaseNREL/Navigant Measure Cost Database

NREL TMY3 weather data

Building stock characteristics

database

Physics-basedcomputer modeling

High-performance computing

++

Page 8: Buildings Sector Bottom-up Load Modeling … · LA100 | 2 Session Goals 1.Become familiar with methodology for buildings sector load modeling 2.Review buildings electrification and

LA100 | 8

Los Angeles City/County

• Los Angeles Region Imagery Acquisition Consortium (LAR-IAC)

• LA County GIS Data Portal - various

• Los Angeles County Assessors Database

• LA DBS Existing Buildings Energy & Water Efficiency Program’

• Dodge Data and Analytics – Metropolitan Construction Insight

California (filtered to LA/DWP when possible)

• California Title 24 (current and historical building energy codes)

• California Database for Energy Efficiency Resources (DEER)

• California End Use Survey (CEUS)

• California Commercial Saturation Survey - Report for the California Public Utilities Commission

• 2009 California Residential Appliance Saturation Study (RASS), 2012 California Lighting and Appliance Saturation Survey (CLASS)

• Report on Complete Schools & 2015 Student Audit - California Department of Education

• California Department of Finance Population Projections for LA County

• Weather data from multiple weather stations covering LA microclimates

Customization for Los Angeles

Page 9: Buildings Sector Bottom-up Load Modeling … · LA100 | 2 Session Goals 1.Become familiar with methodology for buildings sector load modeling 2.Review buildings electrification and

LA100 | 9

Detailed sub-hourly energy simulations

OpenStudio

EnergyPlus

U.S. DOE Tools

Building stock characteristics

database

Physics-basedcomputer modeling

High-performance computing

++

Page 10: Buildings Sector Bottom-up Load Modeling … · LA100 | 2 Session Goals 1.Become familiar with methodology for buildings sector load modeling 2.Review buildings electrification and

LA100 | 10

Building stock characteristics

database

Physics-basedcomputer modeling

High-performance computing

++

Page 11: Buildings Sector Bottom-up Load Modeling … · LA100 | 2 Session Goals 1.Become familiar with methodology for buildings sector load modeling 2.Review buildings electrification and

LA100 | 11

Building stock characteristics

database

Physics-basedcomputer modeling

High-performance computing

++

Res + Com baseline sims: 75,000x 7 five-year projections (2020–2050)x 4 load projections (reference, moderate, high, stress)

Total simulations = 2,100,000

Page 12: Buildings Sector Bottom-up Load Modeling … · LA100 | 2 Session Goals 1.Become familiar with methodology for buildings sector load modeling 2.Review buildings electrification and

LA100 | 12

Building stock characteristics

database

Physics-basedcomputer modeling

High-performance computing

++

Running simulations on a laptop would take 20 years!

Res + Com baseline sims: 75,000x 7 five-year projections (2020–2050)x 4 load projections (reference, moderate, high, stress)

Total simulations = 2,100,000

Page 13: Buildings Sector Bottom-up Load Modeling … · LA100 | 2 Session Goals 1.Become familiar with methodology for buildings sector load modeling 2.Review buildings electrification and

LA100 | 13

Buildings Sector Load Projections

+ +Growth Electrification Efficiency

Page 14: Buildings Sector Bottom-up Load Modeling … · LA100 | 2 Session Goals 1.Become familiar with methodology for buildings sector load modeling 2.Review buildings electrification and

LA100 | 14

Load Projection Design Philosophy

• Load projections cover a range of outcomes:reference, moderate, high, stress

• Outcomes used to back-castelectrification and efficiency adoption rates

• Outcomes are independent of market context and policy implementation (e.g., prices or incentives)

Page 15: Buildings Sector Bottom-up Load Modeling … · LA100 | 2 Session Goals 1.Become familiar with methodology for buildings sector load modeling 2.Review buildings electrification and

LA100 | 15

LA100 Scenarios

SB100 LA-Leads TransmissionRenaissance

High Distributed

Energy Future

Emissions Free

High Load Stress

LoadModern-ization

WesternInitiatives

LoadEnergy Efficiency Reference High Moderate High Moderate Reference High Moderate

Demand Response Reference High Moderate High Moderate Reference High Moderate

Electrification Reference High Moderate High Moderate High High Moderate

How Each Scenario Characterizes Load

R M M MH H HFor all but one LA 100 scenario, the three dimensions vary together:

• Reference• Moderate• High

The name indicates the level of energy efficiency, electrification, and demand response.

Page 16: Buildings Sector Bottom-up Load Modeling … · LA100 | 2 Session Goals 1.Become familiar with methodology for buildings sector load modeling 2.Review buildings electrification and

LA100 | 16

How Each Scenario Characterizes Load

For all but one LA 100 scenario, the three dimensions vary together:• Reference• Moderate• High

The name indicates the level of energy efficiency, electrification, and demand response.

The “High Load Stress” scenario uses a fourth load projection:• Stress (combines High electrification and Reference efficiency)

LA100 Scenarios

SB100 LA-Leads TransmissionRenaissance

High Distributed

Energy Future

Emissions Free

High Load Stress

LoadModern-ization

WesternInitiatives

LoadEnergy Efficiency Reference High Moderate High Moderate Reference High Moderate

Demand Response Reference High Moderate High Moderate Reference High Moderate

Electrification Reference High Moderate High Moderate High High Moderate

R M M MH H HS

Page 17: Buildings Sector Bottom-up Load Modeling … · LA100 | 2 Session Goals 1.Become familiar with methodology for buildings sector load modeling 2.Review buildings electrification and

LA100 | 17

Buildings Sector Load ProjectionsProjection Name Residential Buildings Commercial Buildings

ReferenceElectrification Low electrification (matches SLTRP1 projections)

Efficiency Designed to match 2017 SLTRP 10-year efficiency goals

ModerateElectrification Low-hanging fruit electrification

EfficiencySales shares distributed across available efficiency levels

Moderate adoption of above-code efficiency levels(80% adoption of Title 243 code 5 yrs ahead of schedule)

High2Electrification 100% electric sales share by 2030

100% electric homes by 2050100% electric sales by 2030 (HVAC and water heating)100% electric buildings by 2050 (almost)

Efficiency 100% sales share of highest efficiency levels (currently available technology)

Substantial adoption of above-code efficiency levels(70% adopt est. Title 24 code 15 yrs ahead of schedule)

1 SLTRP = 2017 Final Power Strategic Long-Term Resource Plan2 High projection is based on our interpretation of of LA’s Green New

Deal Sustainable City pLAn 2019 (100% net zero carbon buildings by 2050; energy use intensity reduced by 44% by 2050)

3 LA100 estimates projections of Title 24 (California’s Building Energy Efficiency Standards) for 2022–2050

• All projections use the same building stock growth assumption• All projections assume natural turnover of equipment using standard

lifetimes and commercial renovation rates (no early replacements)• All projections use the same weather (2012)

Page 18: Buildings Sector Bottom-up Load Modeling … · LA100 | 2 Session Goals 1.Become familiar with methodology for buildings sector load modeling 2.Review buildings electrification and

LA100 | 18

Buildings Sector Load ProjectionsProjection Name Residential Buildings Commercial Buildings

ReferenceElectrification Low electrification (matches SLTRP1 projections)

Efficiency Designed to match 2017 SLTRP 10-year efficiency goals

ModerateElectrification Low-hanging fruit electrification

EfficiencySales shares distributed across available efficiency levels

Moderate adoption of above-code efficiency levels(80% adoption of Title 243 code 5 yrs ahead of schedule)

High2Electrification 100% electric sales share by 2030

100% electric homes by 2050100% electric sales by 2030 (HVAC and water heating)100% electric buildings by 2050 (almost)

Efficiency 100% sales share of highest efficiency levels (currently available technology)

Substantial adoption of above-code efficiency levels(70% adopt est. Title 24 code 15 yrs ahead of schedule)

StressElectrification High electrification

Efficiency Reference efficiency

1 SLTRP = 2017 Final Power Strategic Long-Term Resource Plan2 High projection is based on our interpretation of of LA’s Green New

Deal Sustainable City pLAn 2019 (100% net zero carbon buildings by 2050; energy use intensity reduced by 44% by 2050)

3 LA100 estimates projections of Title 24 (California’s Building Energy Efficiency Standards) for 2022–2050

• All projections use the same building stock growth assumption• All projections assume natural turnover of equipment using standard

lifetimes and commercial renovation rates (no early replacements)• All projections use the same weather (2012)

Page 19: Buildings Sector Bottom-up Load Modeling … · LA100 | 2 Session Goals 1.Become familiar with methodology for buildings sector load modeling 2.Review buildings electrification and

LA100 | 19

Building Stock GrowthProjections

Page 20: Buildings Sector Bottom-up Load Modeling … · LA100 | 2 Session Goals 1.Become familiar with methodology for buildings sector load modeling 2.Review buildings electrification and

LA100 | 20

Residential Building Stock Growth Projections• Using projections from California Department of Finance• Demolitions and new construction modeled by vintage and building type• Growth held constant across all load projection cases

Vintages Building Types

Multifamily grows by ~300,000 units

Page 21: Buildings Sector Bottom-up Load Modeling … · LA100 | 2 Session Goals 1.Become familiar with methodology for buildings sector load modeling 2.Review buildings electrification and

LA100 | 21

Commercial Building Stock Growth Projections• Using projections through 2022 from Dodge Data and Analytics – Metropolitan Construction Insight• Growth held constant across all scenarios

Largest growth in Education, Hotels, Healthcare, and Other

Page 22: Buildings Sector Bottom-up Load Modeling … · LA100 | 2 Session Goals 1.Become familiar with methodology for buildings sector load modeling 2.Review buildings electrification and

LA100 | 22

ElectrificationAdoption Projections

Page 23: Buildings Sector Bottom-up Load Modeling … · LA100 | 2 Session Goals 1.Become familiar with methodology for buildings sector load modeling 2.Review buildings electrification and

LA100 | 23

Which end usesare most important for buildings electrification?

Commerical Residential

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Consumption(TBtu/yr)

Waterheating

Waterheating

Heating

Heating

Cooling

Cooling

Ventilation

Lighting

Lighting

Misc.

Misc.

Majorappliances

Pools/spas

Refrigeration

Enduse

Refrigeration

Pools/spas

Majorappliances

Misc.

Lighting

Ventilation

Cooling

Heating

Waterheating

Mod

eled

201

5

Page 24: Buildings Sector Bottom-up Load Modeling … · LA100 | 2 Session Goals 1.Become familiar with methodology for buildings sector load modeling 2.Review buildings electrification and

LA100 | 24

Commerical Residential

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Consumption(TBtu/yr)

Majorappliances-Electricity

Ventilation-Electricity

Lighting-Electricity

Cooling-Electricity

Cooling-Electricity

Misc.-Electricity

Misc.-Electricity Majorappliances-Naturalgas

Waterheating-Naturalgas

Waterheating-Naturalgas

Pools/spas-Naturalgas

Heating-Naturalgas

Heating-Naturalgas

Misc.-Naturalgas

Misc.-Naturalgas

Enduse

Refrigeration

Pools/spas

Majorappliances

Misc.

Lighting

Ventilation

Cooling

Heating

Waterheating

HighlightFuel

Highlighting"Naturalgas"Which end uses are most important for buildings electrification?

Mod

eled

201

5

Page 25: Buildings Sector Bottom-up Load Modeling … · LA100 | 2 Session Goals 1.Become familiar with methodology for buildings sector load modeling 2.Review buildings electrification and

LA100 | 25

Residential Water Heaters

Equipment Sales Installed Stock

100% electric water heating by 2030

Natural gas

Electric

Natural gas

ElectricElectric

Natural gas

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

Other FuelPropaneNatural GasElectricity

Water Heaters

Year

Sales

Reference Moderate Electrification High Electrification

Natural gas

Electric

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

Other FuelPropaneNatural GasElectricity

Water Heaters

Year

Installed Stock

Reference Moderate Electrification High Electrification

Natural gas

Electric

Page 26: Buildings Sector Bottom-up Load Modeling … · LA100 | 2 Session Goals 1.Become familiar with methodology for buildings sector load modeling 2.Review buildings electrification and

LA100 | 26

Efficiency Adoption Projections

Page 27: Buildings Sector Bottom-up Load Modeling … · LA100 | 2 Session Goals 1.Become familiar with methodology for buildings sector load modeling 2.Review buildings electrification and

LA100 | 27

Residential Air Conditioning2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100% MSHP, SEER 33.1, 13.5 HSPF, ENERGY STAR Most Efficient

ASHP, SEER 26.1, 11.0 HSPF, ENERGY STAR Most Efficient

ASHP, SEER 14, 8.2 HSPF

ASHP, SEER 13, 7.7 HSPF

ASHP, SEER 10, 6.2 HSPF

Room AC, EER 10.7

Room AC, EER 8.5

AC, SEER 27, ENERGY STAR Most Efficient

AC, SEER 15

AC, SEER 13

AC, SEER 10

AC, SEER 8

None

Year                    Installed Percentage                    

Reference Moderate High

MSHP = Mini-split heat pump (ductless)ASHP = Air-source heat pump (ducted)Room AC = window/wall air conditionerSEER = Seasonal energy efficiency ratio (fed. min. = 14)HSPF = Heating season performance factor (fed. min. = 8.2)

Central ACs

No AC

Room ACs Heat Pumps

(also includes small amount of centralized cooling in large multifamily buildings)

Large increase in fraction of homes with heat pumps

Page 28: Buildings Sector Bottom-up Load Modeling … · LA100 | 2 Session Goals 1.Become familiar with methodology for buildings sector load modeling 2.Review buildings electrification and

LA100 | 28

Commercial HVAC Efficiency

Historic and projected1

Title 24 HVAC efficiency

1 LA100 estimates projections of Title 24 (California’s Building Energy Efficiency Standards) for 2022–2050

Analysis does not quantify incentives or other mechanisms that would drive these levels of beyond code adoption

Moderate Efficiency High EfficiencyReference Efficiency

Average projected installed code is 2030

Average projected installed code is 2045

Page 29: Buildings Sector Bottom-up Load Modeling … · LA100 | 2 Session Goals 1.Become familiar with methodology for buildings sector load modeling 2.Review buildings electrification and

LA100 | 29

Sample Results

Page 30: Buildings Sector Bottom-up Load Modeling … · LA100 | 2 Session Goals 1.Become familiar with methodology for buildings sector load modeling 2.Review buildings electrification and

LA100 | 30

Complete:• Validation/calibration• Final Run “High” projection updated to reflect pLAn• Final Run modeling

In progress: • Processing and interpreting Final Run results

Where are we now?

Page 31: Buildings Sector Bottom-up Load Modeling … · LA100 | 2 Session Goals 1.Become familiar with methodology for buildings sector load modeling 2.Review buildings electrification and

LA100 | 31

What do results look like?Modeled Residential Sector load for a week in February 2015

Hot days (cooling) Milder days (heating and cooling)

Page 32: Buildings Sector Bottom-up Load Modeling … · LA100 | 2 Session Goals 1.Become familiar with methodology for buildings sector load modeling 2.Review buildings electrification and

LA100 | 32

January February March April May June July August Septemb.. October November December

3 9 15 21 3 9 15 21 3 9 15 21 3 9 15 21 3 9 15 21 3 9 15 21 3 9 15 21 3 9 15 21 3 9 15 21 3 9 15 21 3 9 15 21 3 9 15 21

0K

2K

4K

6K

MW

Run1ModeledLoad

Historical(2012scaled;lossesanddPVadded)

0K

500K

1000K

1500K

2000K

2500K

3000K

MWh

What have we learned? Initial Run Results vs. Reality

January February March April May June

0K

2K

4K

6K

MW

July August September October November December

2 6 10 14 18 22 2 6 10 14 18 22 2 6 10 14 18 22 2 6 10 14 18 22 2 6 10 14 18 22 2 6 10 14 18 22

0K

2K

4K

6K

MW

Run1ModeledLoad

Historical(2012scaled;lossesanddPVadded)

Hourofday

January February March April May June July August September October November December

0M

1M

2M

3M

MWh

Peaks too high

Nighttime valleys too low

January February March April May June July August Septemb.. October November December

3 9 15 21 3 9 15 21 3 9 15 21 3 9 15 21 3 9 15 21 3 9 15 21 3 9 15 21 3 9 15 21 3 9 15 21 3 9 15 21 3 9 15 21 3 9 15 21

0K

2K

4K

6K

MW

Run1ModeledLoad

Historical(2012scaled;lossesanddPVadded)

0K

500K

1000K

1500K

2000K

2500K

3000K

MWh

Monthly MWh

Average day profiles by month

Page 33: Buildings Sector Bottom-up Load Modeling … · LA100 | 2 Session Goals 1.Become familiar with methodology for buildings sector load modeling 2.Review buildings electrification and

LA100 | 33

Calibration and Validation

Calibration/validation data sources

• LADWP customer billing data (monthly; all customers)

• LADWP load research data (hourly; residential/commercial sectors)

• LADWP smart meter data(15-minute; subset of customers)

Monthly

Daily

Hourly

Residential validation examples

Hourly

Page 34: Buildings Sector Bottom-up Load Modeling … · LA100 | 2 Session Goals 1.Become familiar with methodology for buildings sector load modeling 2.Review buildings electrification and

LA100 | 34

Calibration and Validation

Calibration/validation data sources

• LADWP customer billing data (monthly; all customers)

• LADWP load research data (hourly; residential/commercial sectors)

• LADWP smart meter data(15-minute; subset of customers)

Monthly

Daily

Hourly

Residential validation examples

Hourly

Page 35: Buildings Sector Bottom-up Load Modeling … · LA100 | 2 Session Goals 1.Become familiar with methodology for buildings sector load modeling 2.Review buildings electrification and

LA100 | 35

Calibration and Validation

Calibration/validation data sources

• LADWP customer billing data (monthly; all customers)

• LADWP load research data (hourly; residential/commercial sectors)

• LADWP smart meter data(15-minute; subset of customers)

Monthly

Daily

Hourly

Residential validation examples

HourlyHourly -

Page 36: Buildings Sector Bottom-up Load Modeling … · LA100 | 2 Session Goals 1.Become familiar with methodology for buildings sector load modeling 2.Review buildings electrification and

LA100 | 36

Calibration and Validation

Calibration/validation data sources

• LADWP customer billing data (monthly; all customers)

• LADWP load research data (hourly; residential/commercial sectors)

• LADWP smart meter data(15-minute; subset of customers)

Monthly

Daily

Hourly

Residential validation examples

Page 37: Buildings Sector Bottom-up Load Modeling … · LA100 | 2 Session Goals 1.Become familiar with methodology for buildings sector load modeling 2.Review buildings electrification and

LA100 | 37

Initial Run Snapshot: Peak Day, Average Winter Day Profiles

Commercial

Residential

E.g., 10% higher buildings load in 2045 Stress vs. High

Peak Day

Example Initial Run results; buildings load only; Final Run results will reflect updates (e.g., pLAn)

Page 38: Buildings Sector Bottom-up Load Modeling … · LA100 | 2 Session Goals 1.Become familiar with methodology for buildings sector load modeling 2.Review buildings electrification and

LA100 | 38

Initial Run Snapshot: Peak Day, Average Winter Day Profiles

Commercial

Residential

Commercial

Residential

E.g., 10% higher buildings load in 2045 Stress vs. High

Example Initial Run results; buildings load only; Final Run results will reflect updates (e.g., pLAn)

Peak Day Average Winter Day

Page 39: Buildings Sector Bottom-up Load Modeling … · LA100 | 2 Session Goals 1.Become familiar with methodology for buildings sector load modeling 2.Review buildings electrification and

Q&A

Page 40: Buildings Sector Bottom-up Load Modeling … · LA100 | 2 Session Goals 1.Become familiar with methodology for buildings sector load modeling 2.Review buildings electrification and

LA100 | 40

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

Propane

Natural Gas

Electricity

Cooking Ranges

Year

Installed Stock

Reference Moderate Electrification High Electrification

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

Propane

Natural Gas

Electricity

Cooking Ranges

Year

Sales

Reference Moderate Electrification High Electrification

Residential Cooking Ranges

Installed StockSales

Natural gas

Electric

Natural gas

Electric

Page 41: Buildings Sector Bottom-up Load Modeling … · LA100 | 2 Session Goals 1.Become familiar with methodology for buildings sector load modeling 2.Review buildings electrification and

LA100 | 41

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

Natural Gas

Electricity

Clothes Dryers

Year

Sales

Reference Moderate Electrification High Electrification

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

Natural Gas

Electricity

Clothes Dryers

Year

Installed Stock

Reference Moderate Electrification High Electrification

Residential Clothes Dryers

Sales Installed Stock

Natural gas

Electric

Natural gas

Electric

Page 42: Buildings Sector Bottom-up Load Modeling … · LA100 | 2 Session Goals 1.Become familiar with methodology for buildings sector load modeling 2.Review buildings electrification and

LA100 | 42

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

Other FuelPropaneNatural GasElectricity

Space Heating

Year

Sales

Reference Moderate Electrification High Electrification

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

Other FuelPropaneNatural GasElectricity

Space Heating

Year

Installed Stock

Reference Moderate Electrification High Electrification

Residential Space Heating

Sales Installed Stock100% electric heating sales by 2030

90% electric heating by 2045

Natural gas

Electric

Natural gas

Electric

Page 43: Buildings Sector Bottom-up Load Modeling … · LA100 | 2 Session Goals 1.Become familiar with methodology for buildings sector load modeling 2.Review buildings electrification and

LA100 | 43

Commercial HVAC

Sales Fraction Installed Fraction100% electric heating sales by 2030

90% electric heating by 2045

Natural gas

Electric

Natural gas

Electric

Page 44: Buildings Sector Bottom-up Load Modeling … · LA100 | 2 Session Goals 1.Become familiar with methodology for buildings sector load modeling 2.Review buildings electrification and

LA100 | 44

Commercial Water Heaters

Sales Fraction Installed Fraction100% electric water heating sales by 2030

Natural gas

Electric

Natural gas

Electric

Page 45: Buildings Sector Bottom-up Load Modeling … · LA100 | 2 Session Goals 1.Become familiar with methodology for buildings sector load modeling 2.Review buildings electrification and

LA100 | 45

Growth in air conditioning

Installed FractionResidential

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100% Has AC

None

Year                    Installed Percentage                    

Reference Moderate High Stress

Installed FractionCommercial

AC

No AC

AC

No AC

More buildings have AC in High projection because of heat pumps

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1 Has AC

None

Year

Installed Fraction

Reference Moderate High Stress

Page 46: Buildings Sector Bottom-up Load Modeling … · LA100 | 2 Session Goals 1.Become familiar with methodology for buildings sector load modeling 2.Review buildings electrification and

LA100 | 46

Residential Lighting

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100% IncandescentCFLLED

Year                    Installed Percentage                    

Reference Moderate High

100% LED lighting by 2030

Page 47: Buildings Sector Bottom-up Load Modeling … · LA100 | 2 Session Goals 1.Become familiar with methodology for buildings sector load modeling 2.Review buildings electrification and

LA100 | 47

Residential Clothes Washers

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100% ENERGY STAR Most EfficientENERGY STARStandardNone

Year                    Installed Percentage                    

Reference Moderate High

Page 48: Buildings Sector Bottom-up Load Modeling … · LA100 | 2 Session Goals 1.Become familiar with methodology for buildings sector load modeling 2.Review buildings electrification and

LA100 | 48

Residential Dishwashers2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100% 199 Rated kWh, ENERGY STAR Most Efficient255 Rated kWh, ENERGY STAR Most Efficient270 Rated kWh, ENERGY STAR Most Efficient290 Rated kWh318 Rated kWhNone

Year                    Installed Percentage                    

Reference Moderate High

Page 49: Buildings Sector Bottom-up Load Modeling … · LA100 | 2 Session Goals 1.Become familiar with methodology for buildings sector load modeling 2.Review buildings electrification and

LA100 | 49

Residential Attic Insulation2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100% Ceiling R­49, VentedCeiling R­38, VentedCeiling R­30, VentedCeiling R­19, VentedCeiling R­13, VentedCeiling R­7, VentedUninsulated, Vented

Year                    Installed Percentage                    

Reference Moderate High

Moderately insulated attics are largely left alone

Poorly insulated or uninsulated attics are upgraded to R-38 or R-49

Page 50: Buildings Sector Bottom-up Load Modeling … · LA100 | 2 Session Goals 1.Become familiar with methodology for buildings sector load modeling 2.Review buildings electrification and

LA100 | 50

Residential Crawlspace Insulation

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100% Ceiling R­19, VentedCeiling R­13, VentedWall R­10, UnventedWall R­5, UnventedUninsulated, VentedNone

Year                    Installed Percentage                    

Reference Moderate High

Page 51: Buildings Sector Bottom-up Load Modeling … · LA100 | 2 Session Goals 1.Become familiar with methodology for buildings sector load modeling 2.Review buildings electrification and

LA100 | 51

Residential Roof Material

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100% Asphalt Shingles, White or cool colorsAsphalt Shingles, MediumMetal, MediumTile, Medium

Year                    Installed Percentage                    

Reference Moderate High

Page 52: Buildings Sector Bottom-up Load Modeling … · LA100 | 2 Session Goals 1.Become familiar with methodology for buildings sector load modeling 2.Review buildings electrification and

LA100 | 52

Residential Wall Insulation

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100% Wood Stud, R­19Wood Stud, R­15Wood Stud, R­11Wood Stud, R­7Wood Stud, Uninsulated

Year                    Installed Percentage                    

Reference Moderate High

Page 53: Buildings Sector Bottom-up Load Modeling … · LA100 | 2 Session Goals 1.Become familiar with methodology for buildings sector load modeling 2.Review buildings electrification and

LA100 | 53

Residential Infiltration

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100% 1 ACH50

2 ACH50

3 ACH50

4 ACH50

5 ACH50

6 ACH50

7 ACH50

8 ACH50

9 ACH50

10 ACH50

12 ACH50

14 ACH50

16 ACH50

18 ACH50

≥20 ACH50

Year                    Installed Percentage                    

Reference Moderate High

Page 54: Buildings Sector Bottom-up Load Modeling … · LA100 | 2 Session Goals 1.Become familiar with methodology for buildings sector load modeling 2.Review buildings electrification and

LA100 | 54

Residential Windows2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100% Low­E, Double, ENERGY STAR Ver6 South­CentralLow­E, Double, Non­metal, Air, L­GainLow­E, Double, Low­GainClear, Double, Non­metal, AirClear, Single, Non­metalClear, Double, Metal, AirClear, Single, Metal

Year                    Installed Percentage                    

Reference Moderate High

Page 55: Buildings Sector Bottom-up Load Modeling … · LA100 | 2 Session Goals 1.Become familiar with methodology for buildings sector load modeling 2.Review buildings electrification and

LA100 | 55

Residential Refrigerators2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100% EF 18.2, ENERGY STAR Most Efficient, Side­mounted FreezerEF 16.2, ENERGY STAR, Side­mounted FreezerEF 15.7, Side­mounted FreezerEF 10.8, Side­mounted FreezerEF 6.5, Side­mounted FreezerEF 23, ENERGY STAR Most Efficient, Top­mounted FreezerEF 19, ENERGY STAR, Top­mounted FreezerEF 15.9, Top­mounted FreezerEF 10.5, Top­mounted FreezerEF 6.9, Top­mounted FreezerEF 19, ENERGY STAR Most Efficient, Bottom­mounted FreezerEF 16.9, ENERGY STAR, Bottom­mounted FreezerEF 15.9, Bottom­mounted FreezerEF 10.2, Bottom­mounted FreezerEF 6.7, Bottom­mounted Freezer

Year                    Installed Percentage                    

Reference Moderate High

Page 56: Buildings Sector Bottom-up Load Modeling … · LA100 | 2 Session Goals 1.Become familiar with methodology for buildings sector load modeling 2.Review buildings electrification and

LA100 | 56

Commercial Service Water Heating Efficiency

Page 57: Buildings Sector Bottom-up Load Modeling … · LA100 | 2 Session Goals 1.Become familiar with methodology for buildings sector load modeling 2.Review buildings electrification and

LA100 | 57

Commercial Envelope Efficiency

Page 58: Buildings Sector Bottom-up Load Modeling … · LA100 | 2 Session Goals 1.Become familiar with methodology for buildings sector load modeling 2.Review buildings electrification and

LA100 | 58

Commercial Interior Lighting Efficiency

Page 59: Buildings Sector Bottom-up Load Modeling … · LA100 | 2 Session Goals 1.Become familiar with methodology for buildings sector load modeling 2.Review buildings electrification and

LA100 | 59

Commercial Exterior Lighting Efficiency