bull and bear_markets

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S1375.11 Bull & Bear Markets S&P/TSX Composite Index(CAD) Monthly Returns: January 1957–December 2011 S&P/TSX data provided by S&P/TSX. Bull and bear markets defined in hindsight using cumulative monthly returns. A positive one-month return indicates a potential bull market. If the cumulative return over the following months reaches 10%, a bull market is identified. In the course of the bull market, a negative one-month return indicates a potential bear market. If the cumulative return reaches -10% in the months following the first negative month, a bear market is identified. A positive one-month return starts the process again. Performance data represents past performance and does not predict future performance. 5 mos. 9% 7 mos. -27% 12 mos. -15% 6 mos. -17% 8 mos. -15% 13 mos. -25% 7 mos. -11% 11 mos. -35% 3 mos. -10% 6 mos. -13% 1 mo. -18% 12 mos. -39% 7 mos. -14% 4 mos. -25% 10 mos. -20% 5 mos. -11% 4 mos. -27% 25 mos. -43% 19 mos. 46% 17 mos. 49% 43 months 81% 32 months 63% 9 mos. 28% 24 mos. 60% 10 mos. 32% 7 mos. 19% 39 months 179% 15 mos. 38% 18 mos. 99% 36 months 107% 25 mos. 44% 39 months 65% 46 months 106% 24 mos. 109% 68 months 162% 9 months -43% 25 months 85% Months = Duration of Bull/Bear Market % = Total Return for the Bull/Bear Market Average Duration: Bull Market: 26 Months Bear Market: 8 Months Dec 2011 9 months -14%

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Page 1: Bull and bear_markets

S1375.11

Bull & Bear MarketsS&P/TSX Composite Index(CAD)Monthly Returns: January 1957–December 2011

S&P/TSX data provided by S&P/TSX.Bull and bear markets defined in hindsight using cumulative monthly returns. A positive one-month return indicates a potential bull market. If the cumulative return over the following months reaches 10%, a bull market is identified. In the course of the bull market, a negative one-month return indicates a potential bear market. If the cumulative return reaches -10% in the months following the first negative month, a bear market is identified. A positive one-month return starts the process again. Performance data represents past performance and does not predict future performance.

5 mos.9%

7 mos.-27%

12 mos.-15%

6 mos. -17%

8 mos. -15% 13 mos.

-25%

7 mos. -11%

11 mos. -35%

3 mos. -10%

6 mos. -13%

1 mo. -18%

12 mos. -39%

7 mos. -14%

4 mos. -25%

10 mos. -20%

5 mos. -11%

4 mos. -27%

25 mos. -43%

19 mos.46%

17 mos.49%

43 months81%

32 months63%

9 mos.28%

24 mos.60% 10 mos.

32%

7 mos.19%

39 months179%

15 mos. 38%

18 mos.99%

36 months107%

25 mos.44%

39 months65%

46 months106%

24 mos.109%

68 months162%

9 months-43%

25 months85%

Months = Duration of Bull/Bear Market % = Total Return for the Bull/Bear Market

Average Duration:Bull Market: 26 MonthsBear Market: 8 Months

Dec 20119 months

-14%

Page 2: Bull and bear_markets

S1375.11

Bull & Bear MarketsS&P 500 Index (CAD)Monthly Returns: February 1951–December 2011

The S&P data are provided by Standard & Poor's Index Services Group. Bull and bear markets are defined in hindsight using cumulative monthly returns. A bear market (1) begins with a negative monthly return, (2) must achieve a cumulative return less than or equal to -10%, and (3) ends at the most negative cumulative return prior to achieving a positive cumulative return. All data points which are not considered part of a bear market are designated as a bull market.

66 months184%

15 months-15%

43 months89%

3 months-30%

94 months487%

8 months-15%

71 months303%

19 months-32%

24 mos.53%

46 months46%

Lowest Point to Date: 25 months, -42%

1 month-11%

31 months-42%

4 months-16%

36 mos.62%

25 mos.73% 30 mos.

53%26 months

51%

30 months69%

9 mos.62%

50 months119%

10 mos.-13%

6 months-19%

21 months-43%

3 mos.-11%

1 mo.-11%

Months = Duration of Bull/Bear Market % = Total Return for the Bull/Bear Market

Average Duration:Bull Market: 42 MonthsBear Market: 11 Months

Cumulative to Date:59 months, -16%

Page 3: Bull and bear_markets

S1375.11

Bull & Bear MarketsS&P/TSX Composite Index (CAD)Monthly Returns: February 1956–December 2011

S&P/TSX data provided by S&P/TSX. Bull and bear markets are defined in hindsight using cumulative monthly returns. A bear market (1) begins with a negative monthly return, (2) must achieve a cumulative return less than or equal to -20%, and (3) ends at the most negative cumulative return prior to achieving a positive cumulative return. All data points which are not considered part of a bear market are designated as a bull market.

16 mos.20%

137 months286%

7 months-27%

81 months288%

13 months-25%

40 months82%

11 months-35%

61 months253%

12 months-39%

4 months-25%

25 mos.44%

10 mos.-20%

90 months203%

4 months-27%

24 mos.109%

68 months168%

25 months-43%

9 months-43%

Dec 201134 months

59%

Average Duration:Bull Market: 58 MonthsBear Market: 11 Months

Months = Duration of Bull/Bear Market % = Total Return for the Bull/Bear Market

Page 4: Bull and bear_markets

S1375.11

Bull & Bear MarketsMSCI EAFE Index, Net Dividends (CAD)Monthly Returns: January 1970–December 2011

MSCI data copyright MSCI 2011, all rights reserved. Bull and bear markets are defined in hindsight using cumulative monthly returns. A bear market (1) begins with a negative monthly return, (2) must achieve a cumulative return less than or equal to -10%, and (3) ends at the most negative cumulative return prior to achieving a positive cumulative return. All data points which are not considered part of a bear market are designated as a bull market.

7 months46%

4 mos.16%

11 months-18%

28 months95%

18 months-43%

54 months187%

5 mos.-13%

18 months45%

17 mos.73%

37 months326%

18 months-18%

26 mos.30%

4 months-15%

2 months-16%

72 months157%

9 months-31%

5 mos.26%

4 months-12%

6 mos.12%

49 months114%

2 months-14%

36 months-47%

9 mos.-16%

Lowest Point to Date: 22 months, -46%

7 months-10%

Cumulative to Date:56 months, -34%

Average Duration:Bull Market: 27 MonthsBear Market: 11 Months

Months = Duration of Bull/Bear Market % = Total Return for the Bull/Bear Market

Page 5: Bull and bear_markets

S1375.11

Bull & Bear MarketsMSCI World Index, Net Dividends (CAD)Monthly Returns: January 1970–December 2011

MSCI data copyright MSCI 2009, all rights reserved. Bull and bear markets are defined in hindsight using cumulative monthly returns. A bear market (1) begins with a negative monthly return, (2) must achieve a cumulative return less than or equal to -10%, and (3) ends at the most negative cumulative return prior to achieving a positive cumulative return. All data points which are not considered part of a bear market are designated as a bull market.

36 months-45%

18 months-42%

61 months376%

9 mos.50%

6 mos.-22%

33 months69%

62 months142%

3 mos.-11%

18 mos.45%

20 months-15%

25 months33%

3 months-21%

94 months282%

9 months-25%

46 months72%

2 months-11%

Lowest Point to Date: 25 months, -43%

Cumulative to Date:59 months, -24%

Months = Duration of Bull/Bear Market % = Total Return for the Bull/Bear Market

Average Duration:Bull Market: 44 MonthsBear Market: 14 Months