bullion commodity reports for the week (7th - 11th february '11)

8/7/2019 Bullion Commodity Reports for the Week (7th - 11th February '11)

1/8

Weekly Report

Commodity0 7 t h F e b r u a r y - 1 2 t h F e b r u a r y 2 0 1 1

www.capitalvia.comCapitalvia Global Research Limited

WEEKLY

Metals ends higher on

Egypt crisis !


2/8

2 | www.capitalvia.com

Weekly Report

Commodity

Economic Data

Capitalvia Global Research Limited

1:30am

8:30pm

Consumer Credit m/m

IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism

USD

USD

TueFeb 8

8:30pm

9:00pm

Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies

Crude Oil Inventories

USD

USD

WedFeb 9

2.6M

51.9

1.3B

52.8

2.2B

7:00pm

8:30pm

9:00pm

Unemployment Claims

Wholesale Inventories m/m

Natural Gas Storage

USD

USD

USD

ThuFeb 10

-0.2%

-189B

415K

0.7%

411K

Date Time Currency Economic Data Forecast Previous

12:30am

7:00pm

8:25pm

8:25pm

Federal Budget Balance

Trade Balance

Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

USD

USD

USD

USD

FriFeb 11

SatFeb 12

-38.3B

3.4%

74.2

-80.0B

74.6

-40.4B

-69.5B

7:30am FOMC Member Raskin SpeaksUSD


3/8

Gold dropped on Friday as the dollar rose and safe-haven buying ebbed after an apparently unfounded television report sparked intensespeculation that Egypt's President Hosni Mubarak could be stepping down soon, which would end unrest. For the week, gold notched its firstweekly gain in 2011 after U.S. employment rose far less than expected in January, and after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke indicatedmonetary policy would stay accommodative in the near term. Luschini also cited sharply higher U.S. Treasury yields which weighed down on gold'sinvestment appeal. Spot gold dropped 0.3 percent to $1,348.59 an ounce. U.S. gold futures for April delivery settled down $4 to $1,349. Goldholdings of exchange-traded funds inched higher, with those of the largest, New York's SPDR Gold Trust, edging up just over two tonnes onThursday. Bullion's demand dropped on after the speculation on Mubarak's resignation, but fears that unrest in Egypt would spread across theMiddle East should still provide a floor to prices. Data showed U.S. jobs barely grew in January, but the unemployment rate fell to its lowest since

April 2009. Bullion was pressured as the dollar rose against the euro on the U.S. jobless number.

U.S. crude oil futures fell nearly 2 percent on Friday as the market was roiled by an apparently unfounded television report about a possibleannouncement from Egypt that sparked speculation President Hosni Mubarak could be stepping down. Mixed signals in the government'sunemployment report for January and a rebound in the dollar also pressured crude.

Fundamentals

On the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude for March delivery settled down $1.51, or 1.67 percent, at $89.03 a barrel, after trading from $88.45to $91.67. For the week, front-month crude ended down 31 cents, or 0.35 percent, from the $89.34 settlement on Jan. 28. In London, March Brentcrude settled lower and its premium against U.S. crude narrowed to $10.80, from $11.22 at the close on Thursday. NYMEX March settled lower. It

ended the week down 2.15 cents, or 0.9 percent, from $2.4568 a week ago. NYMEX March heating oil ended down. For the week, it rose 2.65cents, or 0.99 percent, from $2.6902 a week ago. Money managers increased their net long crude futures positions in the week to Feb. 1, to176,448 from 155,487 the week before, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission said. OPEC could raise its output quota should a supplyshortage occur if the Suez Canal is shut due to the unrest in Egypt, Iran's OPEC Governor Mohammad Ali Khatibi was quoted as saying.

Copper pushed well above $10,000 a tonne to a record high on Friday, driven by encouraging employment data in the United States that backedviews of a healthier 2011 demand outlook. Prices of the metal, often viewed as a barometer for economic conditions, posted their biggest weeklygain in nine weeks, as investment demand kept growing in anticipation of expected supply shortages and market deficits this year. Copper pushedhigher even after the U.S. data showed a meager 36,000 jobs were created last month, as traders focused on the steep decline in the jobless rateand the significant jump in manufacturing jobs. The data showed U.S. manufacturing jobs expanding at their fastest rate since August1998.London Metal Exchange (LME) copper for three-month delivery closed up $120 at $10,050 a tonne, after touching a record high $10,100.

The benchmark COMEX March contract settled up 3.50 cents at $4.5795 per lb, after hitting its own record at $4.6140. Copper, widely used inmanufacturing and construction, should enjoy strong demand due to improving economic conditions in the developed world and a strong phase ofindustrialization still underway in emerging economies like India and China.Copper's rally helped tin rise to a record high at $31,300 a tonne. Tin for three-months delivery closed up $655 at $31,200.SUPPLY-SIDE BOOSTStocks of copper at LME warehouses last fell 325 tonnes to 394,150 tonnes, a small decline but a bit of respite after a recent string of inventorybuilds dating back to early December.


Weekly Report

Commodity

Fundamental Market Overview

GOLD RETREATS ON EGYPT REPORT, SAFE HAVEN FADES

NYMEX-CRUDE ENDS LOWER, DROPS BELOW $90/BBL

COPPER SOARS TO NEW RECORD ON U.S. DATA BOOST



4/8

GOLD

COMEX Gold is in an upward consolidation phase. Last week COMEX Gold sustain above the level of

1310 and able to sustain it. In the coming week 1310$ will act as a major support in COMEX Gold, ifCOMEX Gold sustains above 1325$ an ounce then above 1350 $ an ounce it can touch the level of

1375$ an ounce and if COMEX Gold sustains below 1300$ then it can slightly correct and test the level

of 1270$ an ounce.

Market Overview

For the next week traders can use buy on lower level strategy if COMEX Gold sustains above 1310$ an

ounce, then above 1350$ it can test the level of 1375$ an ounce and above 1400$ it can further move

upward. Trade by keeping the strict stop losses.

Major support for COMEX Gold in the coming week is 1310$ and 1260$.

Major resistance for COMEX Gold in the coming week is 1400$ and 1435$

Major support in MCX Gold is 19500 and 19100

Major resistance in MCX Gold is 20550 and 20850

Strategy

SILVER

COMEX Silver is technically consolidated on charts. Last week COMEX Silver bounced back from itscrucial support of 2630. For the upcoming week 2630$ and 2500$ are the crucial supports and 3000$

and 3130$ are crucial resistance in COMEX Silver. In MCX Silver 46800and 47900 will act as major

resistance and 44300and 38500 will act as major supports.

Market Overview

COMEX Silver is technically consolidated on charts. Last week COMEX Silver bounced back from its

crucial support of 2630. For the upcoming week 2630$ and 2500$ are the crucial supports and 3000$

and 3130$ are crucial resistance in COMEX Silver. In MCX Silver 46800and 47900 will act as major

resistance and 44300and 38500 will act as major supports.

Strategy


1419 1381 1365 1344 1328 1307

R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3

1269

Script

Levels

3215 3038 2972 2862 2795 2685


2509

Script

Levels

Weekly Report

Commodity

Technical Analysis



5/8

CRUDE OIL

NYMEX Crude is in upward consolidation phase. Last week in Crude oil we saw some good selling

coming at 91$ levels. For the coming week 85$ will act as major support and 93.50$ a barrel will be amajor resistance. In MCX Crude Oil major resistance is found at 4250 and 4380 and major supports

will be 3950 and 3750.

Market Overview

For the next week traders can use buy on lower level strategy, if NYMEX Crude sustains above the

level of 85.00$ a barrel then above 93.00 $ it can slightly come up and touch the level of 95 $ a barrel

and in MCX above 4200 Crude oil can touch the level of 4280. Trade by keeping the proper stop loss.

Strategy

COPPER

Copper is in an upward consolidation phase and traders should use the strategy of buy on lower levels.Last week COMEX Copper was up for most part of the week and closed near to its weekly high. If next

week COMEX Copper sustains above the level of 460 then above the level of 467 Copper can test the

level of 472. In MCX Copper above 468 Copper can test the level of 473 if it does not break the level of

460 on the downside.

Market Overview

For the upcoming week 475 and 485 will act as major resistance and 444 and 433 will act as major

supports in COMEX Copper. For MCX Copper major resistance would be 475 and 485 and supports

would be found at 456 and 440.

Strategy


98.97 94.53 91.78 90.09 87.34 85.65


81.21

Script

Levels

506.60 478.80 468.40 451.00 440.50 423.20


395.40

Script

Levels

Technical Analysis

Weekly Report

Commodity



6/8

NATURAL GAS

Natural Gas is in a consolidation phase and traders should use the strategy of selling on higher levels.

Last week Natural Gas closed near to its weekly low. If next week Natural Gas does not sustains abovethe level of 4. 830$ then below the level of 4.2505$ Natural Gas can test the level of 4.120 $ and above

4.830$ Natural Gas can slightly go up and test the level of 4.950$. In MCX, if Natural Gas sustains

below 190 in the coming week then it can test the level of 180, if it does not break the level of 215 on the

upside.

Market Overview

For the upcoming week 4.200$ and 3.990$ will act as major supports and 5.000$ and 5.200$ will act as

major resistance in US Natural Gas. For MCX Natural Gas major resistance would be 225 and 235,

supports would be found at 192 and 180.

Strategy

USD / INR

USD/INR is consolidating on charts so traders can use the strategy of buying on lower levels. If nextweek USD/INR sustains above the level of 45.2000 then above the level of 46.1000 USD/INR can test

the level of 46.4500 and below 45.2000USD/INR can slightly go down and test the level of 44.9000.

Market Overview

For the upcoming week 44.5000 and 43.8000 will act as major supports and 46.4000 and 47.1000 will

act as major resistance in USD/INR.

Strategy


4.782 4.573 4.442 4.364 4.233 4.155


3.946

Script

Levels

46.9270 46.2870 45.9230 45.6470 45.2830 45.0070


44.3670

Script

Levels

Technical Analysis

Weekly Report

Commodity



7/8

WEEKLY GAINERS INTERNATIONAL MARKET UPDATE WEEKLY

GOLD 1349 0.62

SILVER 2905.9 4.08

COPPER 457.95 4.72

CRUDE 89.03 -0.35

NATURAL GAS 4.31 -0.30

USD/INR 45.56 -0.74

Commodity Expiry Date Closing Price % Change Commodity Closing Price % Change

WEEKLY LOOSERS

NATURAL GAS 23- FEB-11 197.6 -2.47

CRUDE OIL 21- FEB-11 4088 -0.70

Commodity Expiry Date Closing Price % Change

Gold MCX 5-APR-11 Gold Rs./ 10gm 20168 20222 1995220390 20270 190571 14498 3804096102

Silver MCX 5-MAR-11 Silver RS./ KG. 42999 43170 4278244774 44516 454882 21447 59202241517

Copper MCX 28- FEB-11 Copper RS./ KG. 441.55 442.3 442.3465.3 464.5 439223 36793 198876722.95

Crude Oil MCX 21- FEB-11 Crude Oil RS./ BBL. 4117 4125 40554247 4088 948854 28389 3935199-29

Natural Gas MCX 23- FEB-11 Natural Gas RS./ MM BTU 202.6 203.5 197206.6 197.6 217027 19951 543777.1-5

Lead MCX 28- FEB-11 Lead RS./ KG. 113.8 114.45 113.55119.2 118.6 80202 3252 467598.14.8

Zinc MCX 28- FEB-11 Zinc RS./ KG. 107.25 108 108114.4 114.1 109079 4629 610454.66.85

Aluminum MCX 28- FEB-11 Aluminium RS./ KG. 112.8 113.3 113.3117.3 115.85 25089 3.05 1521 144448.5

Nickel MCX 28- FEB-11 Nickel RS./ KG. 1224.4 1230 12301295.7 1294.1 209017 12668 660470.269.7

SymbolExch-ange

ExpiryDate

CommodityName

Price UnitPreviousClose

Open LowHigh CloseQty.Traded

NetOpen

Interest

WeeklyTurnOver

(Rs. in Lakhs)

ZINC 28- FEB-11 114.1 6.39

NICKEL 28- FEB-11 1294.1 5.69


Weekly Market Update

Weekly Report

Commodity


COPPER 28- FEB-11 464.5 5.20


8/8

Gold

Silver

Copper

Crude Oil

Natural Gas

Lead

Zinc

Aluminum

Nickel

Scripts R3 R2 PP S1 S2 S3

21080.00

48008.00

503.37

4514.00

219.60

128.42

124.97

1404.67

123.48

20642.00

46016.00

480.37

4322.00

210.00

122.77

118.57

1338.97

119.48

20204.00

44024.00

457.37

4130.00

200.40

117.12

112.17

1273.27

115.48

20018.00

43274.00

449.43

4013.00

194.20

115.03

109.93

1250.83

113.67

19766.00

42032.00

418.97

3938.00

190.80

111.47

105.77

1207.57

111.48

19328.00

40040.00

411.37

3746.00

181.20

105.82

99.37

1141.87

107.48

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Weekly Pivots

Weekly Report

Commodity

R2

20456.00

45266.00

472.43

4205.00

203.80

120.68

116.33

1316.53

117.67

bullion commodity reports for the week (7th - 11th february '11)

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