bullion metals reports for the week (3rd - 7th january - 2011)

8/8/2019 Bullion Metals Reports for the Week (3rd - 7th January - 2011)

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WEEKLYREPORT

What’s Market Prediction

This Week

Global Research Limited

METALS SURG ES ON GLOBAL CUESMETALS SURGES ON GLOBAL CUES|| 03rd Jan - 07th Jan 2011



Weekly Report

Economic DataDate Time Currency Economic Data Forecast Previous

8:30pm

8:30pm

8:30pm

ISM Manufacturing PMI

Construction Spending m/m

ISM Manufacturing Prices

USD

USD

USD

MonJan 3

| 03rd Jan - 07th Jan 2011Commodity Market

0.7%

56.6

69.5

Tentative

8:30pm

All Day

Treasury Currency Report

Factory Orders m/m

Total Vehicle Sales

USD

USD

USD

TueJan 4

-0.9%

12.3M

0.2%

57.1

71.9

-0.1%

12.3M

12:30am

6:00pm

6:45pm

8:30pm

9:00pm

FOMC Meeting Minutes

Challenger Job Cuts y/y

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

Crude Oil Inventories

USD

USD

USD

USD

USD

WedJan 5

-3.3%

93K

55.0

-1.3M

101K

55.6

7:00pm

9:00pm

Unemployment Claims

Natural Gas Storage

USD

USD

ThuJan 6

-136B

388K400K

7:00pm

7:00pm

7:00pm

Non-Farm Employment Change

Unemployment Rate

Average Hourly Earnings m/m

USD

USD

USD

FriJan 7

9.8%

0.0%

39K136K

9.7%

0.2%

1:30am Consumer Credit m/mUSDSatJan 8

3.4B0.1B



Weekly Report

Fundamental Market Overview

www. c a pi t al v i a. c om

3

C omm o d i t y R e p or t

pot Gold held steady on Friday, on course for a 28 percent annual rise and its strongest in three

years, as it was supported by the weakness in the dollar, while investors were expecting a furtherSprice rally next year. Upbeat U.S. data on the jobs market and manufacturing sector on Thursday

buttressed the view the economy gained momentum as the year ended, setting the stage for a stronger

performance in 2011. Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest Gold-backed exchange-

traded fund, fell to 1,280.722 tonnes by Dec 30, its lowest since early June. The precious metals complex

has had a stellar run this year, led by Palladium's 95 percent rise, in a broad commodities rally which has

pushed up the 19-commodity Reuters-Jefferies CRB index up 15 percent. Spot Gold gained 0.4 percent

to $1,409.20 an ounce by 0715 GMT, on course for a 29 percent annual gain and a fifth straight month of

gains. U.S. Gold climbed up 0.3 percent to $1,410.2 an ounce. The dollar fell 0.4 percent against a basketof currencies. It is about 12 percent lower against the yen and more than 9 percent down versus the Swiss

franc this year. It is still a positive picture for metals next year. There is sufficient demand from investment

perspective to maintain a relatively bullish trend, in Gold in particular.

PRECIOUS-GOLD

STEADY, AIDED BY

WEAK DOLLAR, FIRM

OUTLOOK

il prices hit a 26-month high over $92 a barrel on Friday, closing the year up 15 percent on

expectations that the economic recovery will drive demand growth next year and send prices intoOtriple digits. Strong growth from Asia, especially China, and a rebound in demand from

recovering economies elsewhere fueled a four-month rally that knocked Crude over the $70-$80 range it

held for much of the year. U.S. Crude oil futures surged to a 2010 high on Friday, settling up $1.54 a barrel

at $91.38 a barrel, after touching $92.06, the highest level since Oct. 7, 2008. The settlement marked the

largest end-year price since 2007. London Brent gained $1.66 to settle at $94.75 a barrel, its highest

end-December settlement since 2007 and up nearly 22 percent on the year. Global output jumped 2.2million barrels per day (bpd), according to a poll, the biggest increase since 2004, and another healthy

1.5 million bpd gain is forecast for next year. Recent gains in the dollar could also help cap oil's

momentum by increasing the cost of dollar-denominated currencies for holders of other currencies. U.S.

Crude averaged $79.61 a barrel for the year, second only to 2008's record $99.75. Crude shot to a high of

$147 a barrel in July of that year, before the global recession hit demand and sent prices below $33. Cold

weather in the United States and Europe and OPEC's decision to keep production levels steady earlier this

month have added to bullish sentiment this month. Analysts are watching to see how much of the recent

rally has been caused by seasonal weather demand and how much has been driven by more structural

consumption growth. Speculators betting the economic recovery will boost demand have poured into oil

markets, with net long positions held by money managers in U.S. oil futures hitting fresh records in

December. U.S. Crude rallied back from early losses on Friday in light holiday trade of about 275,000

contracts -- about half the level seen over the past 30 days -- bouncing off lows near $89 a barrel. We'reseeing exaggerated price swings because of low volume of trade but there is technical support around

$89 a barrel and the rally will continue to march into next year.

CRUDE OIL HITS

26-MONTH HIGH

TO END 2010 UP

15 PCT

opper concluded 2010 with a run of record highs, rising 2 percent on Friday as undimmed

demand from China and the prospect of fresh fund investment had analysts pointing to furtherCgains next year. After a year of divergence for the base metals complex, with tin leading gains at

59 percent and Zinc dipping 5 percent, Copper is widely expected to build on its nearly uninterrupted rally

in the second half of 2010 as ore grades decline, new mines remain scarce and top buyer China grows.

Prices have zipped to record highs in each of the past three days, undeterred by Beijing's Christmas rate

hike or the biggest rise in London Metal Exchange stocks since February. Instead, traders have focused

on the steep premium for prompt Copper as a signal of tight supplies, and are betting on a handful of new

exchange-traded funds to open the door for new investors who had shied away from futures. Benchmark

Copper on the London Metal Exchange ended ring trading bid at $9,960 a tonne, securing a 31 percent

gain from $7,375 a tonne at the close on Dec. 31, 2009. It earlier reached a record of $9,687 on Friday, its

third peak in a row. U.S. Copper futures on the COMEX gained 33 percent this year after a 1.9 percent rise

to $4.4470 per lb, having logged its latest record high of $4.4520. A sharp drop in the U.S. dollar aided

gains on Friday amid trade volume that was about one-third the norm at 12,000 lots.

COPPER CAPS 2010

WITH RUN OF

RECORDS; MORE TO

COME

Commodity Market

| 03rd Jan - 07th Jan 2011



Weekly Report

Technical Analysis

Last week COMEX Gold was in a bullish phase. As we

mentioned last week COMEX Gold above the level of

1395$ did our target of 1410$ and even closed above

it. In the coming week 1400$ will act as a major

support in COMEX Gold, if next week COMEX Goldsustains above 1425$ an ounce then above 1435 $ an

ounce it can touch the level of 1450$ an ounce and if

COMEX Gold sustains below 1400$ then it can slightly

correct and test the level of 1385$ an ounce.

GOLD

Market Overview

For the next week traders can use buy on lower level

strategy if COMEX Gold sustains above 1425$ an

ounce, then above 1435$ it can test the level of 1450$

an ounce and above 1470$ it can further move

upward. Trade by keeping the strict stop losses.Major support in COMEX Gold for the coming week is

1370$ and 1340$.Major resistance in COMEX Gold for the coming week

is 1450$ and 1490$Major support in MCX Gold is 20300 and 19900Major resistance in MCX Gold is 21000 and 21350

Strategy

Weekly Pivots

Script

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

Levels

1503

1454

1438

1405

1388

1356

1306

Last week COMEX Silver was in a bullish trend. As we

mentioned last week COMEX Silver above the level of

2965$ did our target of 3020$. For the upcoming week2790$ and 2640$ are the crucial supports and 3160$

and 3250$ are crucial resistance in COMEX Silver. In

MCX Silver 47250 and 48500 will act as major

resistance and 45170 and 43900 will act as major

supports.

S ILVER

Market Overview

Technically COMEX Silver is bullish, For the next week

traders can use buy on lower level strategy if Silver

sustains above the level of 3000$ an ounce, thenabove 3100$ an ounce it can further go upward and

can test the level of 3160$ an ounce. Trade by

keeping the proper stop losses.

Strategy

Weekly Pivots

Script

R3

R2R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

Levels

3457

32403167

3024

2950

2807

2591

Commodity Market

| 03rd Jan - 07th Jan 2011



Weekly Report

Technical Analysis

NYMEX Crude is in upward consolidation phase. Last

week Crude oil recovered most of it early losses of the

week and ended the week near to its high. For the

coming week 87.4$ will act as major support and 94 $

a barrel will be a major resistance. In MCX Crude Oilmajor resistance is found at 4200 and 4350 and major

supports will be 3900 and 3750.

CRU DE OIL

Market Overview

For the next week traders can use buy on lower level

strategy, if NYMEX Crude sustains above the level of

92$ a barrel then above 94$ it can slightly come up

and touch the level of 95.5$ a barrel and in MCX above

4200 Crude oil can touch the level of 4270. Trade bykeeping the proper stop loss.

Strategy

Weekly Pivots

Script

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

Levels

96.90

93.86

92.62

90.82

89.58

87.78

84.74

Copper is in an upward consolidation phase and

traders should use the strategy of buying on lower

levels. Last week COMEX Copper remained bullish forthe entire week and we saw good buying coming at

lower levels.. If next week COMEX Copper sustains

above the level of 438 then above the level of 447

Copper can test the level of 454. In MCX Copper

above 442 Copper can test the level of 450 if it does

not break the level of 433 on the downside.

COPPER

Market Overview

For the upcoming week 455and 466 will act as major

resistance and 420 and 415 will act as major supports

in COMEX Copper. For MCX Copper major resistancewould be 450 and 459 and supports would be found at

426 and 412.

Strategy

Weekly Pivots

Script

R3

R2R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

Levels

486.37

461.57453.13

436.77

428.33

411.97

387.17


5


Commodity Market

| 03rd Jan - 07th Jan 2011



Weekly Report

Technical Analysis

Natural Gas is in a downward phase and tradersshould use the strategy of selling on higher levels. Lastweek in Natural Gas we saw good buying coming atlower levels. If next week Natural Gas does notsustains above the level of 4.550$ then below the levelof 4.100 $ Natural Gas can test the level of 3.950 $ andabove 4.650$ Natural Gas can slightly go up and testthe level of 4.820$. In MCX, if Natural Gas sustainsbelow 180 in the coming week then it can test the levelof 173, if it does not break the level of 187 on theupside.

NATURAL GAS

Market Overview

For the upcoming week 3.950$ and 3.500$ will act as

major supports and 4.825 $ and 5.200$ will act as

major resistance in US Natural Gas. For MCX Natural

Gas major resistance would be 216 and 233, supports

would be found at 180 and 165.

Strategy

Weekly Pivots

Script

R3

R2

R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

Levels

5.128

4.714

4.559

4.300

4.145

3.886

3.472

USD/INR is consolidating on charts so traders can use

the strategy of selling on higher levels. If next week

USD/INR sustains below the level of 44.9200 thenbelow the level of 44.5900 USD/INR can test the level

of 44.2000 and above 44.9200 USD/INR can slightly

go up and test the level of 45.2300.

USD / INR

Market Overview

For the upcoming week 44.500 and 43.8000 will act as

major supports and 45.3000 and 46.1000 will act as

major resistance in USD/INR.

Strategy

Weekly Pivots

Script

R3

R2R1

PP

S1

S2

S3

Levels

46.1200

45.500045.1000

44.8800

44.4800

44.2600

43.6400

Commodity Market

| 03rd Jan - 07th Jan 2011



Weekly ReportCommodity Market

Symbol Exch-ange

ExpiryDate

CommodityName

Price Unit PreviousClose

Open LowHigh Close Qty.Traded

Net OpenInterest

WeeklyTurnOver(Rs. in Lakhs)

GOLD MCX 05-FEB-11 GOLD RS./ 10GM. 20479 20475 2047520798 20750 1709 16023 35417.36

SILVER MCX 05-MAR-11 SILVER RS./ KG. 44420 44346 4424046383 46264 2279 15380 31567

COPPER MCX 28- FEB-11 COPPER RS./ KG. 427.9 427.75 426.65439.8 439.55 2970 34706 1555049.92

CRUDE OIL MCX 19-JAN-11 CRUDE OIL RS./ BBL. 4161 4155 40054173 4087 3174 27148 2362380.79

NATURAL GAS MCX 25-JAN-11 NATURAL GAS RS./ MM BTU 188.9 188.1 185.9199.9 198.8 1448 17621 421244.92

LEAD MCX 31- JAN -11 LEAD RS./ KG. 111.5 112.1 110.8115.45 115.45 374 3668 90210.8

ZINC MCX 31- JAN -11 ZINC RS./ KG. 105.15 105.2 104.75110.05 109.85 557 4320 139237.17

NICKEL MCX 31- JAN -11 NICKEL RS./ KG. 1094.3 1095.5 1084.41126.5 1124.3 2014 9294 176316.27

ALUMINUM MCX 31- JAN -11 ALUMINUM RS./ KG. 110.4 110.5 110.25112.35 110.8 289

271

1844

11.65

-74

9.9

3.95

4.7

30

0.4 3320 62582.58

Weekly Market Update

Weekly Gainers

COMMODITY EXPIRY DATE CLOSING PRICE % CHANGE

NATURAL GAS

ZINC

25- JAN-11

31-JAN -11

9.9

4.7

5.24

4.47

Weekly Losers

COMMODITY EXPIRY DATE CLOSING PRICE % CHANGE

CRUDE OIL 19-JAN-11 -1.78


7


International Market Update Weekly

COMMODITY CLOSING PRICE % CHANGE

GOLD

SILVER

COPPER

CRUDE

NATURAL GAS

USD/INR

1421.4

3093.7

444.7

91.38

4.405

44.7

2.96

5.49

4.43

-0.14

7.89

-0.69

-74

SILVER 05-MAR-11 1844 4.15

| 03rd Jan - 07th Jan 2011

*

(*UPDATED TILL DEC 24, 2010 ; 6:00 P.M. )



Weekly Report

Weekly Pivots

GOLD

Scripts R3

SILVER

COPPER

CRUDE

NATURAL GAS

LEAD

ZINC

NICKEL

ALUMINUM

R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3

21322.33 20999.33 20877.67 20676.33 20554.67 20353.33 20030.33

50087.33 47944.33 47362.67 45801.33 45219.67 43658.33 41515.33

461.58 448.43 443.92 435.28 430.77 422.13 408.98

4425.00 4257.00 4173.00 4089.00 4005.00 3921.00 3753.00

222.80 208.80 203.70 194.80 189.70 180.80 166.80

123.15 118.50 116.90 113.85 112.25 109.20 104.55

118.82 113.52 111.68 108.22 106.38 102.92 97.62

1183.93 1146.33 1133.07 1108.73 1095.47 1071.13 1033.53

115.32 113.22 111.98 111.12 109.88 109.02 106.92

Commodity Market

| 03rd Jan - 07th Jan 2011



Weekly Report

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RULES

Commodity Market


9


| 03rd Jan - 07th Jan 2011



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bullion metals reports for the week (3rd - 7th january - 2011)

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