bureau of reclamation · created date: 11/18/2004 6:27:54 pm
TRANSCRIPT
1 Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities
Appendix 13. Output from simulation analysis of invasion probabilities.
Probability of
Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”
9.990e-01 9.990e-01 9.990e-01 9.990e-01 9.990e-01 9.990e-01 9.940e-01
9.900e-01 9.900e-01 9.900e-01 9.900e-01 9.900e-01 9.900e-01 9.415e-01
9.500e-01 9.500e-01 9.500e-01 9.500e-01 9.500e-01 9.500e-01 7.351e-01
9.000e-01 9.000e-01 9.000e-01 9.000e-01 9.000e-01 9.000e-01 5.314e-01
8.500e-01 8.500e-01 8.500e-01 8.500e-01 8.500e-01 8.500e-01 3.771e-01
8.000e-01 8.000e-01 8.000e-01 8.000e-01 8.000e-01 8.000e-01 2.621e-01
7.500e-01 7.500e-01 7.500e-01 7.500e-01 7.500e-01 7.500e-01 1.780e-01
7.000e-01 7.000e-01 7.000e-01 7.000e-01 7.000e-01 7.000e-01 1.176e-01
6.500e-01 6.500e-01 6.500e-01 6.500e-01 6.500e-01 6.500e-01 7.542e-02
8.500e-01 8.500e-01 9.990e-01 5.000e-01 4.000e-01 5.000e-01 7.218e-02
5.000e-01 4.500e-01 4.000e-01 9.900e-01 8.500e-01 6.500e-01 4.923e-02
6.000e-01 6.000e-01 6.000e-01 6.000e-01 6.000e-01 6.000e-01 4.666e-02
9.500e-01 6.000e-01 5.000e-01 7.500e-01 4.000e-01 5.000e-01 4.275e-02
9.990e-01 7.500e-01 4.000e-01 2.000e-01 6.500e-01 9.000e-01 3.506e-02
9.500e-01 7.000e-01 4.000e-01 7.000e-01 5.000e-01 3.500e-01 3.258e-02
5.500e-01 5.500e-01 5.500e-01 5.500e-01 5.500e-01 5.500e-01 2.768e-02
5.000e-01 8.000e-01 1.500e-01 3.000e-01 9.500e-01 9.900e-01 1.693e-02
4.000e-01 7.500e-01 9.990e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-01 7.500e-01 1.686e-02
5.000e-01 5.000e-01 5.000e-01 5.000e-01 5.000e-01 5.000e-01 1.562e-02
7.500e-01 5.000e-02 7.500e-01 7.000e-01 8.500e-01 7.000e-01 1.171e-02
5.000e-01 9.990e-01 5.000e-01 9.900e-01 8.000e-01 5.000e-02 9.890e-03
4.500e-01 4.500e-01 4.500e-01 4.500e-01 4.500e-01 4.500e-01 8.304e-03
3.000e-01 4.500e-01 6.000e-01 9.000e-01 6.500e-01 1.500e-01 7.108e-03
9.500e-01 8.500e-01 4.000e-01 9.000e-01 4.500e-01 5.000e-02 6.541e-03
3.000e-01 6.000e-01 2.000e-01 5.000e-01 8.000e-01 4.500e-01 6.480e-03
9.990e-01 1.000e-01 3.500e-01 6.000e-01 6.000e-01 4.000e-01 5.035e-03
3.500e-01 1.500e-01 8.000e-01 4.500e-01 3.000e-01 8.500e-01 4.820e-03
9.500e-01 6.000e-01 7.500e-01 3.000e-01 1.000e-01 3.500e-01 4.489e-03
2 Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities
Probability of
Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”
4.000e-01 4.000e-01 4.000e-01 4.000e-01 4.000e-01 4.000e-01 4.096e-03
5.500e-01 4.000e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-01 4.000e-01 5.500e-01 3.630e-03
5.500e-01 9.990e-01 8.500e-01 3.000e-01 1.000e-01 2.500e-01 3.503e-03
8.500e-01 1.500e-01 2.500e-01 2.000e-01 5.000e-01 8.500e-01 2.709e-03
3.500e-01 3.500e-01 3.500e-01 3.500e-01 3.500e-01 3.500e-01 1.838e-03
1.000e-01 1.000e-01 8.000e-01 3.000e-01 7.500e-01 9.900e-01 1.782e-03
5.000e-02 4.000e-01 9.500e-01 7.500e-01 3.000e-01 4.000e-01 1.710e-03
3.500e-01 4.000e-01 5.000e-01 1.000e-01 2.500e-01 9.500e-01 1.662e-03
4.500e-01 3.500e-01 7.500e-01 1.500e-01 4.500e-01 2.000e-01 1.595e-03
1.000e-01 9.990e-01 3.000e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-01 7.000e-01 1.573e-03
5.000e-02 7.500e-01 4.000e-01 2.500e-01 9.500e-01 3.500e-01 1.247e-03
5.500e-01 8.500e-01 5.000e-02 5.000e-01 6.500e-01 1.500e-01 1.140e-03
9.000e-01 5.000e-02 2.000e-01 9.900e-01 4.000e-01 3.000e-01 1.069e-03
1.000e-01 3.000e-01 4.500e-01 3.000e-01 3.500e-01 7.500e-01 1.063e-03
2.000e-01 1.500e-01 8.500e-01 4.000e-01 1.000e-01 9.900e-01 1.010e-03
4.000e-01 4.000e-01 4.000e-01 9.900e-01 1.000e-01 1.500e-01 9.504e-04
8.000e-01 4.000e-01 2.000e-01 1.500e-01 1.000e-01 8.500e-01 8.160e-04
5.500e-01 8.500e-01 7.500e-01 3.000e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-02 7.889e-04
3.000e-01 3.000e-01 3.000e-01 3.000e-01 3.000e-01 3.000e-01 7.290e-04
3.500e-01 4.500e-01 5.000e-02 9.900e-01 8.000e-01 1.000e-01 6.237e-04
5.000e-01 1.500e-01 5.000e-02 5.000e-01 4.500e-01 7.000e-01 5.906e-04
1.500e-01 1.500e-01 3.000e-01 9.990e-01 2.000e-01 3.500e-01 4.720e-04
8.500e-01 9.990e-01 4.500e-01 1.500e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-02 4.299e-04
2.000e-01 3.500e-01 7.500e-01 1.500e-01 5.000e-01 1.000e-01 3.937e-04
4.000e-01 3.500e-01 7.500e-01 8.500e-01 7.500e-01 5.000e-03 3.347e-04
3.000e-01 9.990e-01 7.500e-01 2.500e-01 5.500e-01 1.000e-02 3.091e-04
8.000e-01 4.000e-01 1.000e-02 1.500e-01 8.000e-01 7.500e-01 2.880e-04
2.500e-01 2.500e-01 2.500e-01 2.500e-01 2.500e-01 2.500e-01 2.441e-04
3.000e-01 4.500e-01 3.000e-01 6.500e-01 6.500e-01 1.000e-02 1.711e-04
2.000e-01 9.990e-01 5.000e-02 1.500e-01 6.500e-01 1.500e-01 1.461e-04
3 Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities
Probability of
Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”
2.000e-01 5.000e-02 1.500e-01 3.000e-01 4.500e-01 7.000e-01 1.418e-04
9.900e-01 6.500e-01 5.000e-02 5.000e-03 8.000e-01 8.500e-01 1.094e-04
4.000e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-02 2.500e-01 2.000e-01 7.000e-01 1.050e-04
9.500e-01 8.500e-01 8.500e-01 3.000e-01 1.000e-02 5.000e-02 1.030e-04
1.000e-03 9.990e-01 5.000e-01 7.500e-01 9.500e-01 2.500e-01 8.897e-05
5.000e-02 3.500e-01 9.500e-01 9.900e-01 5.000e-03 9.900e-01 8.147e-05
4.000e-01 1.500e-01 1.000e-02 3.000e-01 6.000e-01 7.000e-01 7.560e-05
2.000e-01 2.000e-01 2.000e-01 2.000e-01 2.000e-01 2.000e-01 6.400e-05
4.000e-01 7.500e-01 9.990e-01 3.500e-01 9.500e-01 5.000e-04 4.983e-05
8.500e-01 1.000e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-01 1.000e-02 7.500e-01 4.781e-05
9.000e-01 1.000e-03 6.500e-01 9.000e-01 3.500e-01 2.500e-01 4.607e-05
4.000e-01 3.500e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e-01 4.000e-01 8.000e-01 4.480e-05
8.500e-01 1.000e-03 3.000e-01 2.500e-01 9.900e-01 7.000e-01 4.418e-05
3.500e-01 1.000e-03 7.500e-01 8.500e-01 4.000e-01 4.500e-01 4.016e-05
6.500e-01 5.000e-02 1.000e-02 2.500e-01 7.500e-01 6.500e-01 3.961e-05
1.500e-01 4.500e-01 6.500e-01 1.000e-03 9.500e-01 8.500e-01 3.543e-05
5.000e-01 1.000e-03 7.500e-01 2.500e-01 3.000e-01 9.500e-01 2.672e-05
8.500e-01 7.500e-01 8.500e-01 5.000e-05 9.000e-01 9.500e-01 2.317e-05
7.500e-01 5.000e-02 4.000e-01 1.000e-01 3.000e-01 5.000e-02 2.250e-05
2.500e-01 7.500e-01 5.000e-04 9.000e-01 7.500e-01 3.500e-01 2.215e-05
1.000e-02 6.000e-01 6.000e-01 1.000e-01 3.000e-01 2.000e-01 2.160e-05
8.000e-01 1.000e-02 7.500e-01 9.990e-01 6.500e-01 5.000e-03 1.948e-05
9.500e-01 7.500e-01 8.500e-01 3.000e-01 2.000e-01 5.000e-04 1.817e-05
9.990e-01 7.000e-01 5.000e-02 2.000e-01 5.000e-01 5.000e-03 1.748e-05
1.000e-02 3.000e-01 3.500e-01 1.500e-01 3.000e-01 3.500e-01 1.654e-05
9.000e-01 1.000e-04 7.500e-01 7.000e-01 9.500e-01 3.500e-01 1.571e-05
9.990e-01 6.000e-01 9.990e-01 7.500e-01 6.500e-01 5.000e-05 1.460e-05
1.500e-01 1.500e-01 1.500e-01 1.500e-01 1.500e-01 1.500e-01 1.139e-05
7.500e-01 4.000e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e-02 6.500e-01 5.500e-01 1.073e-05
4.000e-01 7.500e-01 8.000e-01 6.000e-01 1.000e-04 7.000e-01 1.008e-05
4 Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities
Probability of
Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”
5.000e-02 1.500e-01 1.000e-02 2.000e-01 9.500e-01 7.000e-01 9.975e-06
5.000e-01 3.000e-01 8.500e-01 7.500e-01 9.990e-01 1.000e-04 9.553e-06
1.500e-01 1.000e-01 9.990e-01 8.000e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-03 8.991e-06
3.000e-01 8.500e-01 2.000e-01 7.000e-01 5.000e-01 5.000e-04 8.925e-06
9.990e-01 8.500e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e-01 9.990e-01 1.000e-02 8.483e-06
2.500e-01 7.500e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-04 6.000e-01 9.900e-01 8.353e-06
3.500e-01 7.500e-01 7.500e-01 6.000e-01 1.000e-04 7.000e-01 8.269e-06
5.500e-01 5.000e-02 8.500e-01 1.000e-03 7.500e-01 4.500e-01 7.889e-06
8.000e-01 5.000e-02 7.500e-01 5.000e-02 9.500e-01 5.000e-03 7.125e-06
1.000e-01 4.000e-01 8.500e-01 9.900e-01 5.000e-04 4.000e-01 6.732e-06
5.000e-05 8.500e-01 9.500e-01 3.000e-01 7.500e-01 7.000e-01 6.359e-06
4.500e-01 1.000e-02 1.500e-01 1.500e-01 4.000e-01 1.500e-01 6.075e-06
2.500e-01 7.500e-01 6.500e-01 9.990e-01 9.500e-01 5.000e-05 5.783e-06
9.500e-01 6.000e-01 5.000e-05 5.000e-01 5.000e-01 8.000e-01 5.700e-06
9.000e-01 1.500e-01 4.000e-01 1.000e-01 1.000e-01 1.000e-02 5.400e-06
4.000e-01 5.000e-04 5.000e-01 7.500e-01 4.500e-01 1.500e-01 5.063e-06
1.000e-03 1.500e-01 2.000e-01 8.500e-01 3.500e-01 5.000e-01 4.462e-06
1.000e-04 2.500e-01 6.500e-01 4.000e-01 7.500e-01 8.500e-01 4.144e-06
5.500e-01 5.500e-01 3.000e-01 1.000e-03 4.500e-01 1.000e-01 4.084e-06
1.500e-01 4.500e-01 3.500e-01 7.500e-01 2.000e-01 1.000e-03 3.544e-06
5.000e-01 1.000e-01 2.000e-01 1.000e-03 4.000e-01 8.000e-01 3.200e-06
5.000e-02 4.500e-01 4.000e-01 3.000e-01 5.000e-03 2.000e-01 2.700e-06
1.500e-01 8.500e-01 5.000e-05 6.000e-01 9.900e-01 6.500e-01 2.461e-06
9.000e-01 1.000e-04 1.500e-01 2.500e-01 7.500e-01 9.500e-01 2.405e-06
9.500e-01 7.500e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-01 9.000e-01 5.000e-05 2.405e-06
7.500e-01 4.500e-01 9.990e-01 1.000e-03 1.000e-02 7.000e-01 2.360e-06
9.500e-01 9.000e-01 4.000e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e-03 6.500e-01 2.223e-06
5.000e-05 6.000e-01 7.000e-01 3.000e-01 9.500e-01 3.500e-01 2.095e-06
9.500e-01 8.500e-01 1.000e-05 7.000e-01 4.500e-01 8.000e-01 2.035e-06
4.000e-01 1.000e-01 5.000e-01 2.000e-01 1.000e-01 5.000e-03 2.000e-06
5 Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities
Probability of
Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”
5.000e-03 5.000e-03 6.500e-01 4.000e-01 4.000e-01 6.500e-01 1.690e-06
9.000e-01 7.500e-01 7.000e-01 5.000e-05 1.000e-01 7.000e-01 1.654e-06
5.000e-05 5.500e-01 8.500e-01 1.500e-01 5.500e-01 8.000e-01 1.543e-06
8.000e-01 4.500e-01 1.000e-02 1.500e-01 5.000e-03 4.500e-01 1.215e-06
7.500e-01 6.500e-01 1.000e-02 3.500e-01 6.000e-01 1.000e-03 1.024e-06
1.000e-01 1.000e-01 1.000e-01 1.000e-01 1.000e-01 1.000e-01 1.000e-06
9.000e-01 2.500e-01 5.000e-05 1.500e-01 9.000e-01 6.500e-01 9.872e-07
5.500e-01 3.000e-01 6.000e-01 1.000e-03 9.500e-01 1.000e-02 9.405e-07
9.500e-01 4.500e-01 1.000e-01 5.000e-02 7.500e-01 5.000e-04 8.016e-07
9.900e-01 9.900e-01 2.500e-01 5.000e-06 6.500e-01 9.900e-01 7.884e-07
5.500e-01 6.500e-01 5.000e-06 7.500e-01 6.500e-01 8.500e-01 7.407e-07
9.000e-01 1.000e-02 8.500e-01 4.000e-01 4.500e-01 5.000e-04 6.885e-07
9.500e-01 5.000e-05 9.500e-01 5.000e-02 8.000e-01 3.500e-01 6.318e-07
8.500e-01 3.500e-01 6.000e-01 5.000e-01 1.000e-05 7.000e-01 6.248e-07
9.990e-01 1.000e-05 2.000e-01 7.500e-01 9.900e-01 4.000e-01 5.934e-07
1.000e-01 1.000e-03 5.000e-02 8.000e-01 2.000e-01 7.000e-01 5.600e-07
6.500e-01 7.500e-01 3.000e-01 8.000e-01 4.500e-01 1.000e-05 5.265e-07
3.500e-01 1.500e-01 2.000e-01 5.000e-05 9.500e-01 9.900e-01 4.938e-07
5.000e-03 1.000e-02 1.000e-01 9.900e-01 9.900e-01 1.000e-01 4.901e-07
5.000e-05 7.500e-01 9.900e-01 2.500e-01 1.500e-01 3.500e-01 4.873e-07
3.500e-01 6.500e-01 4.500e-01 1.000e-03 9.500e-01 5.000e-03 4.863e-07
5.000e-01 8.500e-01 7.500e-01 5.000e-01 3.000e-01 1.000e-05 4.781e-07
4.000e-01 9.500e-01 4.000e-01 3.000e-01 9.900e-01 1.000e-05 4.514e-07
1.500e-01 2.000e-01 3.000e-01 1.000e-01 1.000e-01 5.000e-03 4.500e-07
9.500e-01 5.500e-01 7.500e-01 2.500e-01 4.500e-01 1.000e-05 4.409e-07
1.500e-01 3.000e-01 2.000e-01 5.000e-04 1.000e-01 9.500e-01 4.275e-07
1.500e-01 8.000e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-03 9.500e-01 5.000e-03 4.275e-07
1.000e-05 5.500e-01 3.000e-01 7.000e-01 4.500e-01 8.000e-01 4.158e-07
6.500e-01 1.000e-05 9.500e-01 2.000e-01 5.000e-01 6.500e-01 4.014e-07
9.500e-01 4.500e-01 1.000e-05 3.000e-01 6.500e-01 4.500e-01 3.751e-07
6 Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities
Probability of
Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”
1.500e-01 6.000e-01 4.500e-01 2.500e-01 5.000e-05 7.000e-01 3.544e-07
1.000e-03 5.500e-01 9.500e-01 1.000e-03 7.500e-01 8.500e-01 3.331e-07
1.000e-03 8.500e-01 4.000e-01 1.500e-01 6.500e-01 1.000e-02 3.315e-07
8.500e-01 9.900e-01 5.000e-06 3.000e-01 3.000e-01 8.500e-01 3.219e-07
5.000e-01 5.500e-01 4.500e-01 5.000e-06 6.000e-01 8.500e-01 3.156e-07
5.000e-01 8.000e-01 1.000e-05 1.500e-01 6.500e-01 7.000e-01 2.730e-07
9.500e-01 1.000e-03 8.500e-01 1.000e-03 7.500e-01 4.500e-01 2.725e-07
8.000e-01 1.500e-01 9.900e-01 1.000e-05 3.500e-01 6.500e-01 2.703e-07
5.000e-02 4.500e-01 4.500e-01 5.000e-05 6.500e-01 8.000e-01 2.633e-07
4.500e-01 4.500e-01 8.500e-01 5.000e-05 3.000e-01 1.000e-01 2.582e-07
4.500e-01 3.000e-01 9.000e-01 5.000e-06 5.000e-01 8.500e-01 2.582e-07
1.000e-01 4.500e-01 1.000e-05 9.000e-01 9.500e-01 6.500e-01 2.501e-07
2.000e-01 1.000e-05 8.500e-01 3.000e-01 4.500e-01 9.500e-01 2.180e-07
9.500e-01 4.500e-01 6.500e-01 1.500e-01 1.000e-01 5.000e-05 2.084e-07
1.000e-05 9.000e-01 9.990e-01 5.000e-01 3.000e-01 1.500e-01 2.023e-07
1.000e-01 2.000e-01 8.500e-01 5.000e-01 4.500e-01 5.000e-05 1.913e-07
4.000e-01 7.500e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-06 9.500e-01 8.000e-01 1.710e-07
5.000e-03 4.000e-01 4.000e-01 1.000e-03 6.500e-01 3.000e-01 1.560e-07
8.500e-01 6.000e-01 4.000e-01 1.000e-06 8.000e-01 9.500e-01 1.550e-07
4.000e-01 1.000e-04 2.500e-01 5.000e-01 3.000e-01 1.000e-01 1.500e-07
2.000e-01 5.000e-04 8.500e-01 5.000e-02 1.000e-01 3.500e-01 1.488e-07
3.500e-01 2.000e-01 1.000e-05 7.500e-01 3.500e-01 8.000e-01 1.470e-07
9.000e-01 4.500e-01 1.000e-05 2.000e-01 2.000e-01 8.500e-01 1.377e-07
8.500e-01 1.000e-05 1.500e-01 5.000e-01 6.500e-01 3.000e-01 1.243e-07
5.000e-01 1.500e-01 8.500e-01 8.500e-01 2.000e-01 1.000e-05 1.084e-07
5.000e-06 7.000e-01 3.000e-01 3.000e-01 9.500e-01 3.500e-01 1.047e-07
8.000e-01 3.500e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-03 5.000e-04 9.900e-01 1.039e-07
1.000e-02 6.000e-01 4.500e-01 5.000e-02 5.000e-03 1.500e-01 1.013e-07
9.990e-01 9.000e-01 5.500e-01 3.000e-01 6.500e-01 1.000e-06 9.643e-08
4.500e-01 3.000e-01 5.000e-04 3.000e-01 9.500e-01 5.000e-03 9.619e-08
7 Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities
Probability of
Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”
3.000e-01 7.500e-01 4.000e-01 6.000e-01 5.000e-06 3.500e-01 9.450e-08
6.500e-01 9.990e-01 6.500e-01 2.000e-01 1.000e-06 9.990e-01 8.433e-08
5.000e-01 7.500e-01 1.500e-01 3.000e-01 9.500e-01 5.000e-06 8.016e-08
2.500e-01 7.500e-01 8.500e-01 1.000e-03 1.000e-01 5.000e-03 7.969e-08
5.000e-03 6.000e-01 5.000e-01 3.000e-01 5.000e-04 3.500e-01 7.875e-08
3.500e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-05 6.000e-01 9.900e-01 5.000e-02 7.796e-08
9.000e-01 4.500e-01 6.500e-01 8.500e-01 5.000e-07 6.500e-01 7.272e-08
1.000e-03 5.500e-01 2.000e-01 6.000e-01 2.000e-01 5.000e-03 6.600e-08
1.500e-01 5.500e-01 1.000e-05 3.000e-01 3.500e-01 6.500e-01 5.631e-08
3.000e-01 5.000e-05 7.500e-01 5.000e-02 5.000e-01 2.000e-01 5.625e-08
4.000e-01 5.500e-01 1.000e-02 5.000e-02 5.000e-01 1.000e-03 5.500e-08
1.000e-05 4.000e-01 2.000e-01 1.500e-01 4.500e-01 9.000e-01 4.860e-08
8.000e-01 1.000e-01 2.000e-01 8.000e-01 6.500e-01 5.000e-06 4.160e-08
9.990e-01 4.500e-01 3.000e-01 5.000e-06 4.000e-01 1.500e-01 4.046e-08
3.000e-01 7.500e-01 5.000e-01 6.000e-01 1.000e-02 5.000e-05 3.375e-08
9.500e-01 4.000e-01 5.000e-07 3.500e-01 5.000e-01 9.900e-01 3.292e-08
2.500e-01 3.000e-01 4.500e-01 5.000e-06 9.500e-01 2.000e-01 3.206e-08
1.000e-03 1.000e-03 7.500e-01 8.500e-01 9.900e-01 5.000e-02 3.156e-08
9.990e-01 8.500e-01 7.500e-01 6.000e-01 8.000e-01 1.000e-07 3.057e-08
9.990e-01 1.000e-06 4.500e-01 3.000e-01 3.000e-01 7.500e-01 3.034e-08
1.000e-06 6.000e-01 3.000e-01 6.000e-01 8.000e-01 3.500e-01 3.024e-08
5.000e-05 5.000e-02 6.500e-01 1.000e-01 3.500e-01 5.000e-01 2.844e-08
2.000e-01 6.000e-01 4.500e-01 1.000e-06 7.500e-01 7.000e-01 2.835e-08
5.500e-01 2.500e-01 4.000e-01 1.000e-04 5.000e-01 1.000e-02 2.750e-08
1.500e-01 4.000e-01 1.000e-05 2.500e-01 4.000e-01 4.500e-01 2.700e-08
3.500e-01 7.500e-01 3.000e-01 1.000e-06 7.500e-01 4.500e-01 2.658e-08
9.500e-01 9.990e-01 7.000e-01 1.000e-06 6.500e-01 5.000e-02 2.159e-08
5.500e-01 9.900e-01 1.500e-01 2.500e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e-04 2.042e-08
4.500e-01 5.000e-05 4.000e-01 7.500e-01 3.000e-01 1.000e-02 2.025e-08
8 Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities
Probability of
Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”
9.500e-01 1.000e-01 8.500e-01 1.000e-06 3.000e-01 7.500e-01 1.817e-08
1.000e-02 6.000e-01 5.000e-05 8.000e-01 1.000e-01 7.500e-01 1.800e-08
9.990e-01 5.000e-07 5.000e-01 5.000e-01 4.000e-01 3.500e-01 1.748e-08
6.500e-01 1.000e-01 7.500e-01 3.500e-01 1.000e-05 1.000e-01 1.706e-08
5.000e-03 9.000e-01 1.500e-01 5.000e-01 5.000e-03 1.000e-02 1.688e-08
5.000e-02 5.000e-02 5.000e-02 5.000e-02 5.000e-02 5.000e-02 1.563e-08
1.000e-07 9.990e-01 4.000e-01 9.900e-01 4.500e-01 8.000e-01 1.424e-08
2.500e-01 1.000e-06 4.000e-01 4.000e-01 9.900e-01 3.500e-01 1.386e-08
9.500e-01 9.000e-01 5.000e-08 9.900e-01 4.500e-01 7.000e-01 1.333e-08
5.000e-06 1.500e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-01 3.000e-01 7.500e-01 1.266e-08
1.000e-04 7.500e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-02 4.500e-01 5.000e-02 1.266e-08
2.500e-01 4.500e-01 2.500e-01 8.500e-01 1.000e-03 5.000e-04 1.195e-08
9.990e-01 1.500e-01 7.500e-01 4.000e-01 5.000e-03 5.000e-05 1.124e-08
5.000e-01 9.000e-01 1.000e-07 3.500e-01 9.990e-01 7.000e-01 1.101e-08
4.500e-01 4.000e-01 6.000e-01 5.000e-06 4.000e-01 5.000e-02 1.080e-08
1.500e-01 9.000e-01 2.000e-01 7.500e-01 5.000e-01 1.000e-06 1.013e-08
1.500e-01 1.500e-01 8.500e-01 5.000e-06 1.500e-01 7.000e-01 1.004e-08
1.000e-03 1.000e-01 6.000e-01 6.500e-01 5.000e-01 5.000e-04 9.750e-09
3.500e-01 4.500e-01 5.000e-02 3.500e-01 5.000e-06 7.000e-01 9.647e-09
8.000e-01 6.000e-01 4.000e-01 9.990e-01 1.000e-04 5.000e-04 9.590e-09
9.500e-01 6.000e-01 8.500e-01 5.000e-06 5.000e-03 7.500e-01 9.084e-09
5.000e-05 7.500e-01 4.000e-01 6.000e-01 2.000e-01 5.000e-03 9.000e-09
9.000e-01 9.500e-01 2.500e-01 6.000e-01 1.000e-07 7.000e-01 8.978e-09
5.500e-01 5.000e-07 4.000e-01 1.500e-01 6.500e-01 7.500e-01 8.044e-09
7.500e-01 1.000e-01 4.500e-01 1.500e-01 3.000e-01 5.000e-06 7.594e-09
1.000e-01 9.000e-01 9.990e-01 3.500e-01 5.000e-07 4.500e-01 7.080e-09
5.000e-03 4.000e-01 8.500e-01 8.000e-01 5.000e-06 9.990e-01 6.793e-09
9.990e-01 7.500e-01 9.990e-01 8.500e-01 1.000e-06 1.000e-02 6.362e-09
9 Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities
Probability of
Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”
9.990e-01 5.000e-03 4.500e-01 7.500e-01 7.500e-01 5.000e-06 6.322e-09
9.900e-01 4.000e-01 7.000e-01 1.000e-07 3.000e-01 7.000e-01 5.821e-09
7.500e-01 1.000e-05 6.000e-01 2.500e-01 5.000e-01 1.000e-02 5.625e-09
4.000e-01 1.000e-07 8.500e-01 3.000e-01 7.500e-01 7.000e-01 5.355e-09
1.000e-05 8.500e-01 7.500e-01 2.500e-01 6.500e-01 5.000e-03 5.180e-09
5.500e-01 4.000e-01 1.000e-07 7.500e-01 3.000e-01 9.900e-01 4.901e-09
2.500e-01 6.000e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-03 9.000e-01 7.000e-01 4.725e-09
5.000e-05 9.500e-01 6.500e-01 3.000e-01 5.000e-01 1.000e-03 4.631e-09
1.000e-01 7.500e-01 5.000e-05 3.500e-01 1.000e-02 3.500e-01 4.594e-09
3.500e-01 1.000e-01 6.500e-01 5.000e-06 8.000e-01 5.000e-02 4.550e-09
9.500e-01 2.500e-01 9.500e-01 2.000e-01 1.000e-07 9.990e-01 4.508e-09
4.000e-01 7.500e-01 9.000e-01 3.500e-01 9.500e-01 5.000e-08 4.489e-09
9.000e-01 1.000e-06 6.000e-01 8.500e-01 9.500e-01 1.000e-02 4.360e-09
1.000e-01 6.000e-01 1.000e-04 1.500e-01 5.000e-03 9.000e-01 4.050e-09
6.500e-01 6.000e-01 7.500e-01 2.000e-01 6.500e-01 1.000e-07 3.802e-09
9.000e-01 8.500e-01 1.000e-01 5.000e-01 9.900e-01 1.000e-07 3.787e-09
5.500e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e-05 2.000e-01 4.000e-01 8.500e-01 3.740e-09
4.500e-01 9.990e-01 2.500e-01 9.990e-01 5.000e-08 6.500e-01 3.649e-09
6.000e-01 6.500e-01 1.500e-01 5.000e-07 3.500e-01 3.500e-01 3.583e-09
5.000e-02 5.000e-02 7.500e-01 5.000e-06 4.500e-01 7.500e-01 3.164e-09
9.000e-01 5.000e-05 5.000e-02 8.000e-01 5.000e-03 3.500e-01 3.150e-09
4.500e-01 1.000e-01 4.000e-01 7.000e-01 1.000e-06 2.500e-01 3.150e-09
3.000e-01 6.000e-01 1.000e-02 5.000e-06 7.500e-01 4.500e-01 3.038e-09
9.990e-01 1.000e-01 5.000e-02 6.000e-01 2.000e-01 5.000e-06 2.997e-09
9.990e-01 9.990e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-04 8.000e-01 5.000e-05 2.994e-09
6.500e-01 4.500e-01 1.000e-06 3.000e-01 6.500e-01 5.000e-02 2.852e-09
7.000e-01 1.000e-01 6.000e-01 5.000e-07 4.500e-01 3.000e-01 2.835e-09
8.500e-01 5.000e-05 7.500e-01 2.500e-01 1.000e-03 3.500e-01 2.789e-09
Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 10
Probability of
Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”
4.000e-01 5.000e-05 1.500e-01 1.000e-02 2.000e-01 4.500e-01 2.700e-09
4.000e-01 4.000e-01 5.000e-08 4.500e-01 7.500e-01 9.900e-01 2.673e-09
2.000e-01 3.000e-01 3.500e-01 5.000e-02 5.000e-01 5.000e-06 2.625e-09
6.500e-01 5.000e-07 1.000e-02 9.900e-01 9.500e-01 8.500e-01 2.598e-09
1.500e-01 6.000e-01 7.000e-01 9.900e-01 1.000e-07 4.000e-01 2.495e-09
5.000e-01 3.500e-01 3.000e-01 1.000e-02 9.500e-01 5.000e-06 2.494e-09
1.000e-07 2.000e-01 4.500e-01 3.500e-01 9.500e-01 8.000e-01 2.394e-09
8.000e-01 8.500e-01 2.000e-01 5.000e-08 9.990e-01 3.500e-01 2.378e-09
3.000e-01 4.500e-01 1.000e-07 8.500e-01 4.500e-01 4.500e-01 2.324e-09
1.000e-01 7.500e-01 6.500e-01 1.000e-05 9.500e-01 5.000e-03 2.316e-09
6.500e-01 7.000e-01 5.000e-08 7.000e-01 9.500e-01 1.500e-01 2.269e-09
1.500e-01 6.000e-01 5.000e-05 5.000e-03 6.500e-01 1.500e-01 2.194e-09
4.000e-01 9.990e-01 6.000e-01 5.000e-08 4.500e-01 4.000e-01 2.158e-09
9.990e-01 1.000e-08 4.000e-01 9.000e-01 7.000e-01 8.500e-01 2.140e-09
7.500e-01 4.500e-01 5.000e-02 5.000e-02 5.000e-04 5.000e-03 2.109e-09
4.000e-01 4.000e-01 1.000e-02 3.500e-01 7.500e-01 5.000e-06 2.100e-09
1.000e-02 6.000e-01 4.000e-01 5.000e-01 3.500e-01 5.000e-06 2.100e-09
9.500e-01 4.000e-01 1.000e-07 2.500e-01 3.000e-01 7.000e-01 1.995e-09
7.500e-01 4.500e-01 1.500e-01 5.000e-07 1.000e-01 7.500e-01 1.898e-09
3.500e-01 8.500e-01 8.500e-01 1.000e-05 7.500e-01 1.000e-03 1.897e-09
7.500e-01 8.500e-01 3.000e-01 5.000e-08 2.000e-01 9.000e-01 1.721e-09
9.500e-01 1.000e-06 4.000e-01 1.500e-01 6.000e-01 5.000e-02 1.710e-09
4.000e-01 4.000e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-07 3.500e-01 4.000e-01 1.680e-09
5.000e-03 1.000e-01 1.000e-05 4.000e-01 9.500e-01 8.500e-01 1.615e-09
1.000e-05 4.500e-01 1.500e-01 5.000e-03 5.000e-01 9.500e-01 1.603e-09
7.500e-01 5.000e-07 3.000e-01 5.000e-02 9.500e-01 3.000e-01 1.603e-09
1.500e-01 6.500e-01 1.000e-07 7.500e-01 3.000e-01 7.000e-01 1.536e-09
2.500e-01 9.990e-01 1.000e-02 5.000e-06 2.000e-01 6.000e-01 1.499e-09
Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 11
Probability of
Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”
9.500e-01 9.990e-01 6.500e-01 9.000e-01 5.000e-06 5.000e-04 1.388e-09
1.000e-02 9.990e-01 4.500e-01 6.000e-01 1.000e-02 5.000e-05 1.349e-09
2.000e-01 8.500e-01 5.000e-08 7.500e-01 3.000e-01 7.000e-01 1.339e-09
1.000e-07 1.500e-01 7.500e-01 8.500e-01 4.000e-01 3.500e-01 1.339e-09
3.500e-01 6.500e-01 1.000e-05 1.000e-03 8.000e-01 7.000e-01 1.274e-09
5.000e-02 9.990e-01 5.000e-01 1.000e-04 5.000e-02 1.000e-02 1.249e-09
3.000e-01 1.500e-01 3.000e-01 6.000e-01 3.000e-01 5.000e-07 1.215e-09
1.000e-01 1.000e-07 4.500e-01 7.500e-01 9.990e-01 3.500e-01 1.180e-09
1.000e-04 1.000e-03 8.500e-01 2.500e-01 3.500e-01 1.500e-01 1.116e-09
9.990e-01 1.000e-05 8.500e-01 3.500e-01 7.500e-01 5.000e-04 1.115e-09
8.000e-01 6.000e-01 4.000e-01 7.500e-01 5.000e-08 1.500e-01 1.080e-09
1.000e-02 4.500e-01 7.500e-01 9.000e-01 5.000e-07 7.000e-01 1.063e-09
8.000e-01 5.000e-09 6.000e-01 8.500e-01 6.500e-01 8.000e-01 1.061e-09
8.500e-01 4.500e-01 1.000e-07 4.000e-01 4.500e-01 1.500e-01 1.033e-09
3.500e-01 1.000e-01 6.500e-01 4.500e-01 1.000e-01 1.000e-06 1.024e-09
2.000e-01 8.500e-01 5.000e-08 4.000e-01 4.500e-01 6.500e-01 9.945e-10
1.000e-02 8.500e-01 5.000e-07 7.000e-01 8.000e-01 4.000e-01 9.520e-10
3.000e-01 4.000e-01 9.990e-01 1.500e-01 1.000e-01 5.000e-07 8.991e-10
5.000e-01 3.000e-01 5.000e-01 5.000e-05 5.000e-04 4.500e-01 8.438e-10
1.500e-01 5.000e-05 5.000e-04 5.000e-01 9.900e-01 4.500e-01 8.353e-10
5.000e-03 1.000e-03 1.000e-02 3.500e-01 9.500e-01 5.000e-02 8.312e-10
2.500e-01 6.000e-01 1.000e-03 5.000e-04 2.000e-01 5.000e-02 7.500e-10
1.000e-02 7.500e-01 5.000e-02 5.000e-06 9.500e-01 4.000e-01 7.125e-10
4.000e-01 6.000e-01 4.500e-01 2.500e-01 5.000e-04 5.000e-05 6.750e-10
8.500e-01 2.500e-01 1.000e-06 7.000e-01 1.000e-02 4.500e-01 6.694e-10
1.000e-03 4.000e-01 5.500e-01 1.000e-05 4.000e-01 7.500e-01 6.600e-10
5.000e-01 6.500e-01 6.000e-01 1.000e-02 6.500e-01 5.000e-07 6.338e-10
5.000e-02 6.000e-01 1.000e-06 6.000e-01 1.000e-01 3.500e-01 6.300e-10
Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 12
Probability of
Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”
4.000e-01 1.000e-02 5.000e-05 5.000e-03 9.500e-01 6.500e-01 6.175e-10
3.500e-01 3.000e-01 4.000e-01 5.000e-08 9.500e-01 3.000e-01 5.985e-10
9.900e-01 5.000e-02 3.000e-01 8.000e-01 1.000e-03 5.000e-05 5.940e-10
3.000e-01 1.000e-01 8.500e-01 9.000e-01 5.000e-01 5.000e-08 5.738e-10
3.000e-01 9.990e-01 5.000e-04 5.000e-05 5.000e-01 1.500e-01 5.619e-10
3.000e-01 5.000e-07 4.000e-01 6.000e-01 1.000e-01 1.500e-01 5.400e-10
9.990e-01 5.000e-07 6.000e-01 6.000e-01 3.000e-01 1.000e-02 5.395e-10
1.000e-01 1.000e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-06 1.000e-01 7.000e-01 5.250e-10
4.000e-01 3.500e-01 2.000e-01 5.000e-07 2.500e-01 1.500e-01 5.250e-10
5.000e-02 1.000e-01 5.000e-06 1.500e-01 3.000e-01 4.500e-01 5.063e-10
5.000e-01 5.000e-02 5.000e-02 4.000e-01 1.000e-06 9.990e-01 4.995e-10
6.500e-01 6.000e-01 7.500e-01 3.000e-01 1.000e-01 5.000e-08 4.387e-10
3.000e-01 9.990e-01 5.000e-02 1.000e-07 4.500e-01 6.500e-01 4.383e-10
8.000e-01 4.500e-01 1.000e-03 1.000e-05 8.000e-01 1.500e-01 4.320e-10
9.500e-01 2.500e-01 7.500e-01 3.000e-01 5.000e-08 1.500e-01 4.008e-10
5.000e-05 7.500e-01 3.000e-01 1.000e-03 5.000e-02 7.000e-01 3.938e-10
9.990e-01 1.000e-08 7.000e-01 7.500e-01 5.000e-01 1.500e-01 3.934e-10
4.000e-01 9.500e-01 2.000e-01 5.000e-06 9.900e-01 1.000e-03 3.762e-10
1.500e-01 1.000e-06 7.500e-01 1.000e-01 6.500e-01 5.000e-02 3.656e-10
9.500e-01 6.000e-01 5.000e-08 6.000e-01 4.000e-01 5.000e-02 3.420e-10
3.000e-01 1.500e-01 5.000e-06 3.500e-01 5.000e-03 8.500e-01 3.347e-10
1.500e-01 1.000e-06 1.000e-02 7.500e-01 3.500e-01 8.500e-01 3.347e-10
1.500e-01 4.500e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-05 1.000e-03 6.500e-01 3.291e-10
9.900e-01 7.500e-01 6.500e-01 1.000e-01 6.500e-01 1.000e-08 3.137e-10
5.500e-01 6.000e-01 5.000e-07 4.000e-01 9.500e-01 5.000e-03 3.135e-10
1.000e-04 4.500e-01 1.000e-02 3.000e-01 4.500e-01 5.000e-03 3.038e-10
1.500e-01 8.000e-01 9.990e-01 5.000e-07 1.000e-01 5.000e-02 2.997e-10
1.500e-01 1.500e-01 5.000e-06 2.500e-01 1.000e-01 1.000e-01 2.813e-10
Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 13
Probability of
Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”
9.900e-01 6.000e-01 1.000e-08 3.000e-01 4.500e-01 3.500e-01 2.807e-10
1.000e-04 4.000e-01 3.500e-01 1.000e-03 4.000e-01 5.000e-02 2.800e-10
9.500e-01 5.500e-01 1.000e-02 7.000e-01 5.000e-07 1.500e-01 2.743e-10
4.000e-01 1.000e-04 1.000e-04 4.000e-01 2.000e-01 8.500e-01 2.720e-10
1.000e-03 1.000e-05 4.000e-01 3.000e-01 3.000e-01 7.500e-01 2.700e-10
1.000e-01 4.000e-01 2.000e-01 5.000e-08 9.500e-01 7.000e-01 2.660e-10
7.500e-01 8.000e-01 2.000e-01 5.000e-08 5.000e-02 8.500e-01 2.550e-10
3.500e-01 1.000e-01 5.000e-08 2.500e-01 8.000e-01 7.000e-01 2.450e-10
1.000e-03 4.000e-01 2.000e-01 1.000e-04 5.500e-01 5.000e-02 2.200e-10
1.500e-01 5.500e-01 7.500e-01 5.000e-08 1.000e-01 7.000e-01 2.166e-10
3.000e-01 5.500e-01 2.500e-01 3.500e-01 3.000e-01 5.000e-08 2.166e-10
5.000e-01 1.000e-07 8.000e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-02 7.000e-01 2.100e-10
9.000e-01 1.000e-04 5.000e-05 4.000e-01 4.500e-01 2.500e-01 2.025e-10
3.000e-01 5.000e-08 6.000e-01 1.000e-01 8.000e-01 2.500e-01 1.800e-10
9.990e-01 6.000e-01 4.000e-01 1.500e-01 9.500e-01 5.000e-09 1.708e-10
4.000e-01 9.000e-01 5.000e-01 7.500e-01 5.000e-09 2.500e-01 1.688e-10
9.990e-01 4.500e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-02 9.900e-01 5.000e-08 1.669e-10
1.000e-04 7.500e-01 9.900e-01 5.000e-06 9.500e-01 4.500e-01 1.587e-10
5.000e-01 1.000e-07 6.000e-01 1.500e-01 6.500e-01 5.000e-02 1.463e-10
1.000e-03 4.000e-01 7.500e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-06 6.500e-01 1.463e-10
8.500e-01 3.500e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e-06 9.500e-01 5.000e-02 1.413e-10
1.000e-04 5.500e-01 1.000e-01 3.000e-01 1.000e-04 8.500e-01 1.403e-10
1.500e-01 8.500e-01 4.000e-01 2.500e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e-06 1.275e-10
5.000e-01 9.000e-01 5.000e-07 2.500e-01 5.000e-03 4.500e-01 1.266e-10
4.000e-01 1.500e-01 1.000e-07 3.000e-01 1.000e-01 6.500e-01 1.170e-10
9.000e-01 6.500e-01 5.000e-09 4.000e-01 6.500e-01 1.500e-01 1.141e-10
4.000e-01 5.000e-06 6.500e-01 3.500e-01 2.500e-01 1.000e-03 1.138e-10
1.500e-01 9.990e-01 5.000e-03 6.000e-01 5.000e-05 5.000e-03 1.124e-10
Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 14
Probability of
Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”
1.000e-04 3.000e-01 6.500e-01 7.500e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-05 1.097e-10
1.000e-02 9.500e-01 7.500e-01 5.000e-08 7.500e-01 4.000e-01 1.069e-10
8.000e-01 5.000e-06 2.000e-01 8.500e-01 3.000e-01 5.000e-04 1.020e-10
9.990e-01 4.000e-01 2.500e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e-02 1.000e-05 9.990e-11
9.990e-01 1.000e-01 3.000e-01 5.000e-05 6.500e-01 1.000e-04 9.740e-11
3.500e-01 3.500e-01 1.000e-08 3.000e-01 7.500e-01 3.500e-01 9.647e-11
5.000e-05 8.500e-01 7.000e-01 5.000e-06 6.500e-01 9.500e-01 9.185e-11
8.000e-01 4.000e-01 5.000e-06 1.500e-01 7.500e-01 5.000e-04 9.000e-11
6.000e-01 1.000e-03 7.500e-01 5.000e-05 8.000e-01 5.000e-03 9.000e-11
8.500e-01 9.990e-01 5.000e-06 9.900e-01 4.000e-01 5.000e-05 8.407e-11
5.500e-01 5.500e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-05 6.500e-01 8.500e-01 8.357e-11
9.900e-01 4.500e-01 4.000e-01 1.000e-06 4.500e-01 1.000e-03 8.019e-11
9.900e-01 5.000e-09 4.000e-01 3.000e-01 3.000e-01 4.500e-01 8.019e-11
5.000e-02 1.000e-01 7.500e-01 2.500e-01 1.000e-07 8.500e-01 7.969e-11
3.500e-01 1.000e-01 3.500e-01 1.000e-06 6.500e-01 1.000e-02 7.963e-11
1.000e-03 7.000e-01 4.500e-01 5.000e-06 9.500e-01 5.000e-02 7.481e-11
9.900e-01 4.000e-01 5.000e-06 4.500e-01 8.000e-01 1.000e-04 7.128e-11
5.000e-03 1.000e-01 1.000e-05 3.500e-01 5.000e-02 8.000e-01 7.000e-11
9.990e-01 4.000e-01 5.000e-06 9.990e-01 5.000e-05 7.000e-01 6.986e-11
1.500e-01 4.500e-01 1.000e-02 5.000e-05 5.000e-03 4.000e-01 6.750e-11
1.000e-05 4.500e-01 1.000e-02 3.000e-01 5.000e-02 1.000e-01 6.750e-11
4.000e-01 6.000e-01 5.000e-09 1.000e-01 8.000e-01 7.000e-01 6.720e-11
4.500e-01 3.500e-01 5.000e-06 2.000e-01 5.000e-04 8.500e-01 6.694e-11
9.500e-01 1.000e-09 7.000e-01 9.900e-01 1.000e-01 9.900e-01 6.518e-11
2.500e-01 6.500e-01 5.000e-06 1.000e-03 2.000e-01 4.000e-01 6.500e-11
5.000e-02 8.000e-01 1.000e-08 2.500e-01 6.500e-01 9.990e-01 6.494e-11
4.500e-01 5.000e-09 2.000e-01 8.000e-01 2.000e-01 9.000e-01 6.480e-11
5.000e-02 9.500e-01 1.500e-01 1.000e-07 2.000e-01 4.500e-01 6.412e-11
Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 15
Probability of
Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”
1.000e-05 4.500e-01 1.000e-02 7.000e-01 2.000e-01 1.000e-02 6.300e-11
9.500e-01 4.500e-01 6.500e-01 5.000e-03 4.500e-01 1.000e-07 6.252e-11
2.500e-01 5.000e-02 5.000e-08 8.000e-01 3.500e-01 3.500e-01 6.125e-11
5.000e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-05 3.000e-01 9.500e-01 8.500e-01 6.056e-11
5.000e-02 3.000e-01 1.000e-02 5.000e-06 1.000e-01 7.000e-01 5.250e-11
9.500e-01 5.000e-04 3.500e-01 1.000e-06 6.500e-01 4.500e-01 4.863e-11
9.500e-01 1.000e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e-02 5.000e-02 1.000e-04 4.750e-11
1.500e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-01 6.000e-01 9.990e-01 1.000e-04 4.496e-11
4.000e-01 5.500e-01 5.000e-08 8.500e-01 9.500e-01 5.000e-03 4.441e-11
1.000e-05 1.500e-01 9.500e-01 3.000e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e-02 4.275e-11
4.000e-01 4.500e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-05 6.000e-01 7.500e-01 4.050e-11
9.900e-01 8.500e-01 1.000e-02 2.500e-01 3.500e-01 5.000e-08 3.682e-11
1.000e-05 2.500e-01 1.000e-03 3.500e-01 1.000e-01 4.000e-01 3.500e-11
9.500e-01 2.500e-01 1.000e-08 6.500e-01 4.500e-01 5.000e-02 3.473e-11
3.000e-01 1.000e-07 1.500e-01 7.500e-01 9.500e-01 1.000e-02 3.206e-11
1.000e-01 9.990e-01 5.000e-02 5.000e-08 8.500e-01 1.500e-01 3.184e-11
5.000e-05 9.000e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e-01 1.000e-03 7.000e-01 3.150e-11
3.000e-01 9.000e-01 5.000e-08 1.000e-02 6.500e-01 3.500e-01 3.071e-11
9.990e-01 2.500e-01 3.500e-01 1.000e-02 7.000e-01 5.000e-08 3.059e-11
9.500e-01 5.000e-05 6.000e-01 1.000e-03 5.000e-03 2.000e-01 2.850e-11
8.000e-01 1.000e-07 5.000e-03 7.500e-01 9.500e-01 1.000e-01 2.850e-11
8.000e-01 7.500e-01 9.500e-01 1.000e-06 9.990e-01 5.000e-05 2.847e-11
1.000e-03 7.500e-01 8.000e-01 2.000e-01 5.000e-07 4.500e-01 2.700e-11
3.500e-01 6.000e-01 5.000e-05 2.500e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e-03 2.625e-11
1.000e-01 1.000e-06 7.500e-01 5.000e-03 6.500e-01 1.000e-01 2.438e-11
3.500e-01 6.500e-01 4.000e-01 5.000e-02 9.500e-01 5.000e-09 2.161e-11
4.000e-01 6.000e-01 5.000e-05 5.000e-06 3.500e-01 9.500e-01 1.995e-11
6.000e-01 4.500e-01 1.000e-04 5.000e-06 9.500e-01 1.500e-01 1.924e-11
Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 16
Probability of
Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”
1.000e-01 1.000e-08 3.000e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-01 8.500e-01 1.913e-11
2.500e-01 6.000e-01 1.500e-01 1.000e-08 5.000e-01 1.500e-01 1.688e-11
6.500e-01 6.000e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e-02 5.000e-07 8.500e-01 1.658e-11
1.500e-01 4.500e-01 6.500e-01 5.000e-07 1.000e-03 7.500e-01 1.645e-11
9.900e-01 1.000e-03 1.000e-05 5.000e-03 4.000e-01 7.500e-01 1.485e-11
7.000e-01 2.500e-01 7.500e-01 5.000e-08 5.000e-03 4.500e-01 1.477e-11
9.900e-01 9.990e-01 7.000e-01 5.000e-03 5.000e-09 8.500e-01 1.471e-11
3.000e-01 5.000e-02 2.000e-01 5.000e-08 6.500e-01 1.500e-01 1.462e-11
9.500e-01 5.000e-09 5.000e-02 3.000e-01 4.500e-01 4.500e-01 1.443e-11
9.500e-01 4.500e-01 5.000e-06 1.000e-05 9.000e-01 7.000e-01 1.347e-11
5.500e-01 3.000e-01 5.000e-07 1.000e-03 4.500e-01 3.500e-01 1.299e-11
8.500e-01 6.000e-01 1.000e-02 5.000e-08 1.000e-01 5.000e-01 1.275e-11
3.000e-01 1.000e-05 8.500e-01 1.000e-03 5.000e-01 1.000e-02 1.275e-11
1.000e-09 1.000e-01 4.500e-01 9.500e-01 4.500e-01 6.500e-01 1.250e-11
3.000e-01 1.000e-04 9.900e-01 5.000e-07 9.900e-01 8.500e-01 1.250e-11
2.000e-01 7.500e-01 6.500e-01 2.500e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-05 1.219e-11
2.000e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e-02 3.000e-01 4.000e-01 5.000e-06 1.200e-11
1.000e-04 9.500e-01 3.000e-01 5.000e-03 8.000e-01 1.000e-04 1.140e-11
1.000e-01 1.000e-01 6.500e-01 3.500e-01 5.000e-06 1.000e-03 1.138e-11
6.000e-01 5.000e-09 8.000e-01 9.900e-01 9.500e-01 5.000e-03 1.129e-11
1.000e-02 5.000e-02 4.500e-01 5.000e-05 1.000e-01 1.000e-02 1.125e-11
1.000e-05 7.500e-01 9.900e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-05 2.000e-01 1.114e-11
9.990e-01 5.500e-01 1.000e-02 5.000e-04 8.000e-01 5.000e-06 1.099e-11
1.000e-05 6.000e-01 5.000e-02 1.000e-01 1.000e-03 3.500e-01 1.050e-11
9.500e-01 8.500e-01 5.000e-05 3.000e-01 1.000e-06 8.500e-01 1.030e-11
5.000e-05 1.000e-05 1.500e-01 1.500e-01 9.990e-01 8.500e-01 9.553e-12
4.500e-01 5.000e-07 7.500e-01 1.000e-02 5.500e-01 1.000e-02 9.281e-12
2.500e-01 3.000e-01 1.000e-05 3.500e-01 5.000e-05 7.000e-01 9.188e-12
Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 17
Probability of
Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”
9.000e-01 1.000e-06 5.000e-04 9.990e-01 1.000e-01 2.000e-01 8.991e-12
8.500e-01 1.500e-01 5.000e-08 5.000e-03 8.000e-01 3.500e-01 8.925e-12
1.000e-07 4.000e-01 2.000e-01 7.000e-01 3.000e-01 5.000e-03 8.400e-12
4.500e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e-08 9.990e-01 6.000e-01 3.000e-01 8.092e-12
9.000e-01 1.000e-08 7.500e-01 2.500e-01 4.500e-01 1.000e-02 7.594e-12
1.000e-01 5.000e-05 8.500e-01 3.500e-01 5.000e-04 1.000e-02 7.438e-12
1.000e-05 5.500e-01 5.000e-02 6.000e-01 4.500e-01 1.000e-04 7.425e-12
4.000e-01 5.000e-09 1.500e-01 2.500e-01 1.000e-01 9.900e-01 7.425e-12
9.500e-01 2.500e-01 1.000e-04 7.500e-01 4.000e-01 1.000e-06 7.125e-12
4.000e-01 1.500e-01 5.000e-03 1.000e-05 4.500e-01 5.000e-03 6.750e-12
5.000e-01 6.500e-01 1.000e-05 8.000e-01 4.500e-01 5.000e-06 5.850e-12
5.500e-01 1.000e-01 8.500e-01 1.000e-07 5.000e-03 2.500e-01 5.844e-12
5.500e-01 9.990e-01 5.000e-07 6.500e-01 6.500e-01 5.000e-05 5.804e-12
5.500e-01 9.990e-01 1.000e-08 3.000e-01 5.000e-03 7.000e-01 5.769e-12
5.000e-01 5.000e-05 1.000e-03 1.000e-02 4.500e-01 5.000e-02 5.625e-12
5.000e-08 1.500e-01 7.500e-01 5.000e-03 3.000e-01 6.500e-01 5.484e-12
5.000e-03 5.000e-08 5.000e-01 6.000e-01 2.000e-01 3.500e-01 5.250e-12
1.000e-07 6.500e-01 4.000e-01 2.000e-01 9.900e-01 1.000e-03 5.148e-12
9.500e-01 4.500e-01 5.000e-06 5.000e-01 9.500e-01 5.000e-06 5.077e-12
5.000e-01 2.500e-01 1.000e-07 1.000e-02 1.000e-01 4.000e-01 5.000e-12
1.000e-03 4.000e-01 1.000e-02 2.500e-01 5.000e-04 1.000e-02 5.000e-12
1.000e-03 3.500e-01 7.500e-01 7.500e-01 5.000e-07 5.000e-02 4.922e-12
1.000e-02 9.000e-01 5.500e-01 1.000e-06 1.000e-03 9.900e-01 4.901e-12
3.000e-01 5.000e-05 1.000e-02 6.500e-01 1.000e-03 5.000e-02 4.875e-12
9.500e-01 1.000e-03 4.500e-01 5.000e-07 4.500e-01 5.000e-02 4.809e-12
1.500e-01 4.500e-01 3.500e-01 5.000e-05 5.000e-06 8.000e-01 4.725e-12
6.500e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-02 5.000e-05 9.500e-01 3.000e-01 4.631e-12
5.000e-06 8.500e-01 6.500e-01 5.000e-01 6.500e-01 5.000e-06 4.489e-12
Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 18
Probability of
Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”
4.500e-01 8.500e-01 5.000e-06 3.000e-01 1.000e-05 7.500e-01 4.303e-12
8.500e-01 4.500e-01 4.500e-01 5.000e-02 1.000e-04 5.000e-06 4.303e-12
5.000e-03 1.000e-05 7.500e-01 5.000e-03 4.500e-01 5.000e-02 4.219e-12
9.990e-01 5.000e-02 7.500e-01 5.000e-02 4.500e-01 5.000e-09 4.215e-12
3.500e-01 1.000e-03 5.000e-01 1.000e-07 6.500e-01 3.500e-01 3.981e-12
1.000e-03 4.000e-01 1.000e-04 1.000e-04 9.900e-01 9.900e-01 3.920e-12
1.000e-01 6.000e-01 9.990e-01 1.000e-06 1.000e-04 6.500e-01 3.896e-12
1.000e-04 1.000e-01 4.500e-01 5.000e-06 2.000e-01 8.500e-01 3.825e-12
8.000e-01 9.500e-01 1.000e-07 1.000e-03 2.000e-01 2.500e-01 3.800e-12
4.000e-01 5.000e-02 1.000e-02 5.000e-05 7.500e-01 5.000e-04 3.750e-12
1.000e-03 9.990e-01 6.000e-01 5.000e-08 3.500e-01 3.500e-01 3.671e-12
1.500e-01 1.000e-09 8.500e-01 1.000e-01 4.000e-01 7.000e-01 3.570e-12
4.000e-01 4.500e-01 3.000e-01 1.000e-02 6.500e-01 1.000e-08 3.510e-12
1.000e-02 1.000e-05 1.500e-01 3.500e-01 1.000e-03 6.500e-01 3.413e-12
1.000e-05 9.990e-01 7.500e-01 5.000e-07 9.500e-01 9.500e-01 3.381e-12
1.500e-01 5.000e-02 6.000e-01 5.000e-08 1.000e-01 1.500e-01 3.375e-12
1.000e-02 9.990e-01 7.500e-01 5.000e-07 1.000e-03 8.500e-01 3.184e-12
3.500e-01 4.000e-01 6.000e-01 5.000e-09 7.500e-01 1.000e-02 3.150e-12
1.000e-04 5.000e-07 6.500e-01 2.500e-01 5.500e-01 7.000e-01 3.128e-12
3.000e-01 1.000e-05 2.000e-01 1.000e-01 5.000e-03 1.000e-02 3.000e-12
5.000e-01 6.000e-01 4.000e-01 1.000e-07 5.000e-03 5.000e-02 3.000e-12
5.000e-01 8.500e-01 1.000e-06 1.000e-01 1.000e-04 6.500e-01 2.763e-12
3.500e-01 1.000e-01 5.000e-02 1.000e-08 4.500e-01 3.500e-01 2.756e-12
1.000e-09 3.500e-01 3.000e-01 8.000e-01 2.000e-01 1.500e-01 2.520e-12
3.500e-01 6.000e-01 5.000e-08 2.500e-01 1.000e-03 9.500e-01 2.494e-12
1.000e-03 8.000e-01 1.000e-04 7.500e-01 4.000e-01 1.000e-04 2.400e-12
6.000e-01 1.000e-02 8.500e-01 5.000e-02 9.000e-01 1.000e-08 2.295e-12
9.500e-01 9.500e-01 5.000e-02 1.000e-07 9.500e-01 5.000e-04 2.143e-12
Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 19
Probability of
Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”
5.000e-01 7.500e-01 5.000e-06 5.000e-02 5.000e-05 4.500e-01 2.109e-12
3.500e-01 3.000e-01 8.500e-01 9.000e-01 5.000e-03 5.000e-09 2.008e-12
3.000e-01 9.900e-01 5.000e-06 6.000e-01 4.500e-01 5.000e-06 2.005e-12
5.000e-06 6.500e-01 1.000e-04 5.000e-02 3.500e-01 3.500e-01 1.991e-12
4.000e-01 3.000e-01 1.000e-01 2.500e-01 1.000e-09 6.500e-01 1.950e-12
9.500e-01 4.500e-01 3.000e-01 1.000e-06 3.000e-01 5.000e-05 1.924e-12
1.000e-03 7.500e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e-01 5.000e-03 5.000e-04 1.875e-12
2.500e-01 4.500e-01 6.500e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-01 5.000e-06 1.828e-12
1.000e-01 2.500e-01 2.500e-01 1.000e-09 4.500e-01 6.500e-01 1.828e-12
3.000e-01 4.500e-01 9.990e-01 5.000e-02 5.000e-05 5.000e-06 1.686e-12
7.500e-01 8.500e-01 1.000e-03 1.000e-03 5.000e-01 5.000e-06 1.594e-12
1.000e-06 9.990e-01 9.990e-01 1.000e-04 3.000e-01 5.000e-02 1.497e-12
5.000e-06 5.500e-01 4.500e-01 6.000e-01 4.000e-01 5.000e-06 1.485e-12
3.000e-01 1.500e-01 5.000e-06 1.500e-01 8.000e-01 5.000e-05 1.350e-12
1.000e-06 5.000e-02 5.000e-05 9.900e-01 7.500e-01 7.000e-01 1.299e-12
5.500e-01 8.500e-01 1.000e-02 5.000e-03 1.000e-05 5.000e-03 1.169e-12
1.000e-02 1.500e-01 7.000e-01 1.000e-06 9.900e-01 1.000e-03 1.040e-12
3.000e-01 1.000e-06 5.000e-01 1.000e-04 1.500e-01 4.500e-01 1.013e-12
1.000e-02 1.000e-02 1.000e-02 1.000e-02 1.000e-02 1.000e-02 1.000e-12
6.500e-01 2.000e-01 5.000e-07 5.000e-01 5.000e-05 6.000e-01 9.750e-13
5.000e-05 7.500e-01 9.900e-01 3.500e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-07 9.745e-13
1.000e-07 1.000e-04 7.500e-01 4.500e-01 3.000e-01 9.500e-01 9.619e-13
5.000e-05 4.000e-01 9.500e-01 9.990e-01 1.000e-07 5.000e-01 9.491e-13
9.000e-01 3.500e-01 5.000e-06 6.000e-01 1.000e-03 1.000e-03 9.450e-13
2.000e-01 1.000e-01 1.000e-07 7.000e-01 1.000e-03 6.500e-01 9.100e-13
5.000e-02 6.000e-01 1.000e-04 1.000e-06 6.500e-01 4.500e-01 8.775e-13
5.000e-03 9.000e-01 5.000e-05 5.000e-06 9.500e-01 8.000e-01 8.550e-13
4.000e-01 4.500e-01 1.500e-01 3.000e-01 1.000e-03 1.000e-07 8.100e-13
Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 20
Probability of
Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”
9.990e-01 1.000e-04 2.000e-01 1.000e-06 8.000e-01 5.000e-02 7.992e-13
5.000e-05 4.500e-01 3.000e-01 5.000e-07 6.500e-01 3.500e-01 7.678e-13
2.500e-01 6.000e-01 9.990e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-01 1.000e-06 7.493e-13
1.500e-01 8.500e-01 5.000e-08 3.500e-01 5.000e-04 6.500e-01 7.252e-13
2.000e-01 1.000e-04 1.000e-03 5.000e-05 8.500e-01 8.500e-01 7.225e-13
1.000e-06 4.500e-01 4.500e-01 7.500e-01 9.500e-01 5.000e-06 7.214e-13
7.500e-01 4.000e-01 8.500e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-07 5.500e-01 7.013e-13
3.500e-01 6.500e-01 6.500e-01 1.000e-06 1.000e-05 4.500e-01 6.654e-13
1.000e-05 4.500e-01 6.500e-01 4.000e-01 5.500e-01 1.000e-06 6.435e-13
5.000e-06 7.500e-01 5.000e-06 2.000e-01 2.000e-01 8.500e-01 6.375e-13
1.000e-09 7.500e-01 5.000e-01 5.000e-03 4.000e-01 8.500e-01 6.375e-13
4.500e-01 1.000e-09 4.000e-01 5.000e-02 1.000e-01 7.000e-01 6.300e-13
5.000e-06 5.000e-07 4.000e-01 8.000e-01 9.500e-01 8.000e-01 6.080e-13
1.000e-04 9.990e-01 8.500e-01 1.000e-08 8.000e-01 8.000e-01 5.435e-13
9.900e-01 9.500e-01 5.000e-01 4.500e-01 5.000e-08 5.000e-05 5.290e-13
1.000e-03 7.500e-01 1.000e-05 1.000e-03 2.000e-01 3.500e-01 5.250e-13
9.900e-01 1.000e-03 1.000e-08 3.000e-01 4.500e-01 3.500e-01 4.678e-13
1.000e-04 6.500e-01 1.500e-01 5.000e-06 9.500e-01 1.000e-02 4.631e-13
1.000e-03 4.000e-01 1.500e-01 5.000e-06 1.500e-01 1.000e-02 4.500e-13
8.500e-01 1.000e-06 5.000e-06 1.500e-01 9.900e-01 7.000e-01 4.418e-13
8.500e-01 4.500e-01 5.000e-07 5.000e-02 4.500e-01 1.000e-04 4.303e-13
5.000e-06 4.500e-01 6.000e-01 2.000e-01 3.000e-01 5.000e-06 4.050e-13
1.000e-03 3.500e-01 5.000e-04 1.000e-01 4.500e-01 5.000e-05 3.938e-13
6.500e-01 6.500e-01 1.000e-05 6.000e-01 1.000e-06 1.500e-01 3.803e-13
5.000e-01 2.000e-01 7.500e-01 5.000e-08 1.000e-01 1.000e-03 3.750e-13
5.000e-01 9.990e-01 1.000e-02 1.500e-01 1.000e-07 5.000e-03 3.746e-13
5.000e-05 1.000e-05 1.000e-02 2.500e-01 3.000e-01 9.000e-01 3.375e-13
1.000e-05 2.000e-01 5.000e-01 5.000e-06 1.000e-01 6.500e-01 3.250e-13
Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 21
Probability of
Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”
1.000e-01 6.000e-01 5.000e-04 1.500e-01 1.000e-07 7.000e-01 3.150e-13
9.990e-01 1.000e-04 9.500e-01 6.000e-01 1.000e-03 5.000e-06 2.847e-13
5.000e-06 5.000e-05 7.500e-01 1.000e-02 7.500e-01 2.000e-01 2.813e-13
1.000e-08 8.500e-01 1.000e-04 6.500e-01 6.500e-01 7.500e-01 2.693e-13
5.000e-05 5.000e-06 3.500e-01 6.000e-01 9.990e-01 5.000e-03 2.622e-13
5.000e-05 3.500e-01 8.500e-01 3.500e-01 1.000e-06 5.000e-02 2.603e-13
5.000e-05 1.000e-04 2.000e-01 4.000e-01 6.500e-01 1.000e-03 2.600e-13
9.990e-01 6.500e-01 1.000e-02 4.000e-01 1.000e-03 1.000e-07 2.597e-13
5.000e-02 3.000e-01 1.500e-01 4.500e-01 5.000e-06 5.000e-05 2.531e-13
5.000e-03 5.000e-07 4.500e-01 5.000e-04 9.990e-01 4.500e-01 2.529e-13
8.000e-01 2.500e-01 2.500e-01 5.000e-03 1.000e-04 1.000e-05 2.500e-13
1.500e-01 1.000e-03 2.500e-01 1.000e-07 1.000e-01 6.500e-01 2.438e-13
4.000e-01 8.500e-01 4.000e-01 1.000e-06 3.500e-01 5.000e-06 2.380e-13
4.000e-01 8.000e-01 3.000e-01 9.900e-01 5.000e-05 5.000e-08 2.376e-13
9.500e-01 1.000e-01 1.000e-02 5.000e-02 1.000e-02 5.000e-07 2.375e-13
2.500e-01 1.000e-08 1.000e-02 1.000e-01 1.000e-01 9.000e-01 2.250e-13
9.990e-01 1.000e-03 1.500e-01 3.000e-01 5.000e-07 1.000e-02 2.248e-13
1.000e-05 5.000e-07 6.000e-01 9.900e-01 1.000e-01 7.000e-01 2.079e-13
4.000e-01 6.000e-01 4.000e-01 5.000e-08 5.000e-05 8.500e-01 2.040e-13
3.000e-01 3.000e-01 5.000e-02 5.000e-05 1.000e-06 9.000e-01 2.025e-13
5.000e-01 1.000e-09 4.000e-01 9.900e-01 2.000e-01 5.000e-03 1.980e-13
5.500e-01 4.000e-01 4.000e-01 4.500e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-07 1.980e-13
1.000e-06 6.000e-01 1.000e-06 3.500e-01 9.500e-01 9.500e-01 1.895e-13
5.000e-01 7.500e-01 5.000e-01 1.000e-06 1.000e-01 1.000e-05 1.875e-13
5.000e-02 6.000e-01 1.000e-06 5.000e-03 5.000e-03 2.500e-01 1.875e-13
7.500e-01 1.000e-05 1.000e-05 7.500e-01 3.000e-01 1.000e-02 1.688e-13
1.000e-02 1.000e-03 5.000e-02 5.000e-06 4.500e-01 1.500e-01 1.688e-13
4.500e-01 5.000e-07 5.000e-02 1.500e-01 9.900e-01 1.000e-04 1.671e-13
Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 22
Probability of
Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”
3.000e-01 1.500e-01 1.000e-07 4.500e-01 8.000e-01 1.000e-04 1.620e-13
5.500e-01 4.500e-01 6.500e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e-05 1.000e-05 1.609e-13
1.000e-03 8.500e-01 5.000e-01 5.000e-05 5.000e-05 1.500e-01 1.594e-13
5.000e-05 6.000e-01 3.000e-01 1.000e-07 5.000e-01 3.500e-01 1.575e-13
8.500e-01 1.000e-06 4.000e-01 1.500e-01 1.000e-05 3.000e-01 1.530e-13
9.500e-01 6.500e-01 1.000e-04 5.000e-05 5.000e-05 9.900e-01 1.528e-13
8.000e-01 3.000e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e-07 6.000e-01 1.000e-03 1.440e-13
1.500e-01 6.000e-01 4.500e-01 1.000e-03 1.000e-08 3.500e-01 1.418e-13
1.500e-01 6.000e-01 5.000e-04 5.000e-08 2.000e-01 3.000e-01 1.350e-13
1.500e-01 8.500e-01 7.000e-01 5.000e-06 1.000e-06 3.000e-01 1.339e-13
9.500e-01 5.000e-05 1.000e-02 1.000e-06 6.000e-01 4.500e-01 1.283e-13
5.500e-01 3.500e-01 1.000e-04 1.000e-07 1.000e-01 6.500e-01 1.251e-13
1.000e-05 3.500e-01 5.000e-02 1.000e-03 1.000e-03 7.000e-01 1.225e-13
1.000e-07 8.500e-01 1.000e-05 2.000e-01 9.000e-01 8.000e-01 1.224e-13
8.000e-01 1.000e-08 5.000e-05 8.500e-01 9.990e-01 3.500e-01 1.189e-13
1.000e-01 5.000e-09 7.000e-01 4.500e-01 1.000e-03 7.500e-01 1.181e-13
6.000e-01 5.000e-09 1.000e-02 7.500e-01 9.900e-01 5.000e-03 1.114e-13
5.000e-02 5.000e-03 8.500e-01 5.000e-08 1.000e-01 1.000e-01 1.063e-13
9.500e-01 9.500e-01 5.000e-05 5.000e-08 3.000e-01 1.500e-01 1.015e-13
1.500e-01 5.000e-09 5.000e-04 8.000e-01 5.000e-01 6.500e-01 9.750e-14
5.500e-01 9.990e-01 5.000e-02 1.000e-09 1.000e-02 3.500e-01 9.615e-14
1.500e-01 5.000e-06 7.500e-01 3.000e-01 1.000e-06 5.500e-01 9.281e-14
8.500e-01 1.000e-05 9.500e-01 1.500e-01 1.000e-07 7.500e-01 9.084e-14
5.000e-01 9.000e-01 5.000e-02 1.000e-09 8.000e-01 5.000e-03 9.000e-14
5.000e-05 5.500e-01 6.500e-01 5.000e-01 1.000e-05 1.000e-03 8.938e-14
5.000e-06 4.000e-01 5.000e-07 2.500e-01 9.900e-01 3.500e-01 8.663e-14
9.000e-01 1.000e-05 1.000e-02 5.000e-06 5.500e-01 3.500e-01 8.663e-14
1.000e-05 5.000e-07 4.000e-01 5.000e-01 1.000e-01 8.500e-01 8.500e-14
Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 23
Probability of
Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”
5.000e-05 1.000e-04 1.000e-02 7.500e-01 5.000e-03 4.500e-01 8.438e-14
1.500e-01 1.500e-01 5.000e-02 1.500e-01 1.000e-04 5.000e-06 8.438e-14
8.500e-01 5.500e-01 5.000e-06 5.000e-08 9.990e-01 7.000e-01 8.173e-14
1.000e-04 1.000e-01 2.000e-01 5.000e-05 8.000e-01 1.000e-03 8.000e-14
8.500e-01 5.000e-07 5.000e-02 7.500e-01 9.900e-01 5.000e-06 7.889e-14
1.000e-07 6.500e-01 3.000e-01 2.000e-01 2.000e-01 1.000e-04 7.800e-14
7.500e-01 1.000e-04 4.000e-01 3.000e-01 1.000e-08 8.500e-01 7.650e-14
8.500e-01 6.500e-01 2.500e-01 1.000e-08 1.000e-01 5.000e-04 6.906e-14
1.500e-01 5.000e-09 4.000e-01 1.000e-01 5.000e-03 4.500e-01 6.750e-14
9.000e-01 1.000e-03 1.000e-09 9.900e-01 1.500e-01 5.000e-01 6.683e-14
5.000e-09 3.500e-01 9.500e-01 5.000e-02 1.000e-03 8.000e-01 6.650e-14
9.500e-01 1.500e-01 1.000e-04 1.000e-04 1.000e-04 4.500e-01 6.413e-14
8.000e-01 1.000e-06 5.000e-07 6.500e-01 3.500e-01 7.000e-01 6.370e-14
1.000e-04 6.000e-01 3.000e-01 1.000e-04 3.500e-01 1.000e-04 6.300e-14
1.000e-07 1.000e-05 8.500e-01 7.500e-01 6.500e-01 1.500e-01 6.216e-14
5.500e-01 9.000e-01 3.500e-01 5.000e-06 1.000e-07 7.000e-01 6.064e-14
3.000e-01 5.000e-07 4.500e-01 2.500e-01 5.000e-06 7.000e-01 5.906e-14
1.000e-06 6.500e-01 3.000e-01 6.000e-01 1.000e-01 5.000e-06 5.850e-14
3.500e-01 4.500e-01 1.500e-01 5.000e-06 9.900e-01 5.000e-07 5.847e-14
5.000e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-06 7.500e-01 3.000e-01 1.000e-02 5.625e-14
8.500e-01 1.000e-05 6.500e-01 5.000e-07 4.000e-01 5.000e-02 5.525e-14
3.500e-01 4.500e-01 6.500e-01 5.000e-02 1.000e-08 1.000e-03 5.119e-14
5.000e-06 3.000e-01 1.500e-01 6.000e-01 5.000e-07 7.500e-01 5.063e-14
9.990e-01 4.000e-01 5.000e-09 5.000e-03 9.900e-01 5.000e-03 4.945e-14
5.000e-05 3.000e-01 1.000e-02 9.900e-01 5.000e-07 6.500e-01 4.826e-14
1.000e-04 8.500e-01 1.000e-07 5.000e-02 7.000e-01 1.500e-01 4.463e-14
1.000e-01 1.000e-03 4.500e-01 1.000e-07 9.900e-01 1.000e-02 4.455e-14
5.000e-06 4.500e-01 7.500e-01 5.000e-07 1.500e-01 3.500e-01 4.430e-14
Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 24
Probability of
Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”
3.500e-01 5.500e-01 1.000e-05 7.000e-01 6.500e-01 5.000e-08 4.379e-14
5.000e-02 4.500e-01 2.000e-01 1.000e-03 9.500e-01 1.000e-08 4.275e-14
1.000e-04 8.500e-01 5.000e-08 5.000e-02 3.000e-01 6.500e-01 4.144e-14
9.900e-01 5.000e-02 5.000e-07 3.000e-01 1.000e-01 5.000e-05 3.713e-14
3.000e-01 8.000e-01 5.000e-05 6.000e-01 1.000e-06 5.000e-03 3.600e-14
6.500e-01 5.000e-07 4.500e-01 5.000e-07 6.000e-01 8.000e-01 3.510e-14
9.990e-01 6.000e-01 5.000e-05 1.000e-08 7.500e-01 1.500e-01 3.372e-14
8.000e-01 1.000e-05 1.000e-07 1.500e-01 4.000e-01 7.000e-01 3.360e-14
3.500e-01 1.000e-01 7.500e-01 5.000e-03 5.000e-08 5.000e-03 3.281e-14
1.000e-04 1.500e-01 8.500e-01 5.000e-06 1.000e-01 5.000e-03 3.188e-14
5.500e-01 8.500e-01 1.500e-01 1.000e-07 9.000e-01 5.000e-06 3.156e-14
3.000e-01 5.000e-09 1.000e-03 1.000e-01 9.500e-01 2.000e-01 2.850e-14
5.000e-06 6.000e-01 4.000e-01 5.000e-08 4.500e-01 9.990e-01 2.697e-14
9.990e-01 4.500e-01 6.000e-01 9.900e-01 1.000e-05 1.000e-08 2.670e-14
5.000e-08 8.500e-01 5.000e-05 1.500e-01 5.500e-01 1.500e-01 2.630e-14
1.000e-04 3.500e-01 1.000e-05 7.500e-01 1.000e-01 1.000e-03 2.625e-14
4.000e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-09 2.000e-01 5.000e-04 8.000e-01 2.400e-14
4.000e-01 1.000e-06 5.000e-06 1.500e-01 1.000e-01 8.000e-01 2.400e-14
9.990e-01 5.500e-01 1.000e-06 1.000e-06 1.000e-01 4.000e-01 2.198e-14
1.000e-05 6.000e-01 5.000e-06 1.000e-03 9.500e-01 7.500e-01 2.138e-14
5.000e-05 6.000e-01 5.000e-09 6.000e-01 9.500e-01 2.500e-01 2.138e-14
1.000e-01 1.000e-04 2.000e-01 3.500e-01 3.000e-01 1.000e-07 2.100e-14
5.000e-01 1.000e-07 5.000e-06 1.500e-01 8.000e-01 7.000e-01 2.100e-14
4.500e-01 5.000e-03 8.000e-01 5.000e-05 4.500e-01 5.000e-07 2.025e-14
1.500e-01 4.500e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-06 4.000e-01 1.000e-06 2.025e-14
3.000e-01 8.500e-01 3.000e-01 5.000e-07 1.000e-01 5.000e-06 1.913e-14
7.500e-01 8.500e-01 6.000e-01 1.000e-06 1.000e-03 5.000e-05 1.913e-14
2.500e-01 5.000e-05 1.000e-02 3.000e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-02 1.875e-14
Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 25
Probability of
Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”
9.500e-01 5.000e-07 7.500e-01 7.000e-01 1.000e-07 7.500e-01 1.870e-14
5.000e-05 5.000e-06 1.500e-01 1.500e-01 5.000e-03 6.500e-01 1.828e-14
2.000e-01 8.500e-01 6.000e-01 1.000e-04 5.000e-09 3.500e-01 1.785e-14
9.000e-01 3.500e-01 1.500e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-04 5.000e-09 1.772e-14
9.000e-01 5.000e-07 3.500e-01 2.500e-01 1.000e-06 4.500e-01 1.772e-14
3.000e-01 3.500e-01 1.500e-01 5.000e-08 5.000e-05 4.000e-01 1.575e-14
5.000e-03 5.000e-03 5.000e-03 5.000e-03 5.000e-03 5.000e-03 1.563e-14
1.500e-01 1.000e-04 2.000e-01 2.000e-01 5.000e-03 5.000e-06 1.500e-14
5.000e-01 5.000e-02 6.500e-01 5.000e-06 5.000e-07 3.500e-01 1.422e-14
1.500e-01 5.000e-06 2.500e-01 5.000e-06 1.500e-01 1.000e-01 1.406e-14
5.000e-06 2.000e-01 1.000e-02 4.000e-01 5.000e-06 7.000e-01 1.400e-14
3.500e-01 1.000e-01 4.000e-01 5.000e-08 5.000e-05 4.000e-01 1.400e-14
5.000e-06 9.900e-01 5.000e-01 5.000e-08 7.500e-01 1.500e-01 1.392e-14
8.500e-01 5.000e-02 7.500e-01 5.000e-08 1.000e-05 8.500e-01 1.355e-14
9.900e-01 1.000e-04 5.000e-04 2.500e-01 9.990e-01 1.000e-06 1.236e-14
5.000e-01 5.000e-05 5.500e-01 2.500e-01 3.500e-01 1.000e-08 1.203e-14
8.000e-01 1.000e-09 1.000e-02 2.000e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-02 1.200e-14
1.000e-08 5.000e-02 4.000e-01 4.000e-01 1.500e-01 1.000e-03 1.200e-14
1.000e-05 1.000e-03 3.000e-01 1.000e-01 8.000e-01 5.000e-05 1.200e-14
5.000e-06 7.500e-01 1.500e-01 5.000e-06 5.000e-03 8.500e-01 1.195e-14
1.000e-04 1.000e-03 3.500e-01 4.500e-01 1.500e-01 5.000e-06 1.181e-14
8.000e-01 1.000e-06 4.000e-01 8.000e-01 4.500e-01 1.000e-07 1.152e-14
4.000e-01 6.500e-01 8.500e-01 1.000e-08 9.990e-01 5.000e-06 1.104e-14
6.500e-01 1.000e-03 1.000e-02 7.500e-01 5.000e-09 4.500e-01 1.097e-14
8.000e-01 4.500e-01 9.500e-01 1.000e-06 6.000e-01 5.000e-08 1.026e-14
7.500e-01 1.000e-04 1.000e-05 4.000e-01 6.500e-01 5.000e-05 9.750e-15
5.000e-09 6.500e-01 4.500e-01 6.500e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e-03 9.506e-15
9.500e-01 5.000e-09 1.000e-02 2.000e-01 2.000e-01 5.000e-03 9.500e-15
Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 26
Probability of
Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”
1.000e-09 4.500e-01 8.500e-01 5.000e-01 9.900e-01 5.000e-05 9.467e-15
7.500e-01 5.500e-01 1.000e-08 5.000e-06 6.500e-01 7.000e-01 9.384e-15
5.000e-09 3.000e-01 1.500e-01 8.000e-01 1.000e-02 5.000e-03 9.000e-15
9.500e-01 5.000e-05 7.500e-01 5.000e-08 5.000e-01 1.000e-02 8.906e-15
1.000e-01 5.000e-07 1.000e-05 3.500e-01 1.000e-01 5.000e-01 8.750e-15
2.500e-01 5.000e-07 1.000e-05 3.500e-01 4.000e-01 5.000e-02 8.750e-15
3.000e-01 6.000e-01 9.990e-01 5.000e-06 9.500e-01 1.000e-08 8.541e-15
5.000e-05 8.500e-01 1.000e-02 5.000e-07 4.000e-01 1.000e-01 8.500e-15
3.000e-01 2.500e-01 1.000e-07 2.500e-01 1.000e-05 4.500e-01 8.438e-15
8.000e-01 5.000e-07 6.500e-01 1.000e-07 4.500e-01 7.000e-01 8.190e-15
9.000e-01 7.500e-01 5.000e-08 5.000e-01 5.000e-07 9.500e-01 8.016e-15
6.500e-01 6.000e-01 5.000e-05 1.000e-05 8.000e-01 5.000e-05 7.800e-15
1.000e-05 1.000e-08 6.500e-01 1.500e-01 9.900e-01 8.000e-01 7.722e-15
9.000e-01 1.000e-04 8.500e-01 1.000e-01 1.000e-05 1.000e-04 7.650e-15
1.000e-05 5.000e-06 9.500e-01 8.500e-01 5.000e-04 3.500e-01 7.066e-15
1.000e-04 3.500e-01 5.000e-06 4.000e-01 2.000e-01 5.000e-04 7.000e-15
3.500e-01 5.000e-09 4.500e-01 5.000e-05 5.000e-01 3.500e-01 6.891e-15
8.000e-01 1.000e-08 5.000e-06 2.500e-01 8.000e-01 8.500e-01 6.800e-15
9.990e-01 4.500e-01 1.000e-06 6.000e-01 5.000e-07 5.000e-02 6.743e-15
4.000e-01 5.000e-09 7.500e-01 4.500e-01 9.900e-01 1.000e-05 6.683e-15
1.500e-01 5.000e-05 5.000e-02 1.000e-01 5.000e-07 3.500e-01 6.563e-15
5.000e-01 1.000e-08 1.000e-05 3.000e-01 6.000e-01 7.000e-01 6.300e-15
8.000e-01 5.000e-07 3.500e-01 1.000e-01 1.000e-06 4.500e-01 6.300e-15
9.900e-01 5.000e-09 4.500e-01 6.000e-01 1.000e-05 4.500e-01 6.014e-15
8.000e-01 5.000e-05 7.500e-01 5.000e-09 1.000e-01 4.000e-01 6.000e-15
5.000e-03 5.000e-09 6.500e-01 9.900e-01 3.500e-01 1.000e-03 5.631e-15
1.000e-02 5.000e-05 5.000e-02 5.000e-07 5.000e-01 9.000e-01 5.625e-15
1.000e-01 1.000e-07 5.000e-06 2.000e-01 6.500e-01 8.500e-01 5.525e-15
Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 27
Probability of
Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”
5.000e-05 5.500e-01 9.990e-01 1.000e-06 2.000e-01 1.000e-03 5.495e-15
3.000e-01 5.000e-07 8.500e-01 5.000e-08 9.990e-01 8.500e-01 5.413e-15
9.000e-01 1.000e-04 1.500e-01 5.000e-08 8.000e-01 1.000e-02 5.400e-15
5.500e-01 5.000e-08 6.500e-01 1.000e-04 3.000e-01 1.000e-02 5.363e-15
1.000e-04 5.000e-09 7.500e-01 1.500e-01 9.500e-01 1.000e-01 5.344e-15
1.000e-07 1.000e-06 5.000e-01 1.500e-01 9.990e-01 7.000e-01 5.245e-15
1.000e-06 4.500e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-06 1.000e-01 1.500e-01 5.063e-15
9.500e-01 1.000e-01 7.000e-01 5.000e-08 1.000e-05 1.500e-01 4.988e-15
3.000e-01 1.000e-03 4.000e-01 5.000e-06 8.000e-01 1.000e-05 4.800e-15
1.000e-03 1.000e-03 7.500e-01 1.000e-08 7.500e-01 8.500e-01 4.781e-15
9.500e-01 1.000e-03 1.000e-03 1.000e-06 5.000e-01 1.000e-02 4.750e-15
3.000e-01 4.500e-01 4.000e-01 5.000e-05 5.000e-09 3.500e-01 4.725e-15
5.000e-05 2.000e-01 1.000e-05 9.900e-01 9.500e-01 5.000e-05 4.703e-15
1.000e-08 7.000e-01 7.500e-01 2.500e-01 1.000e-05 3.500e-01 4.594e-15
1.000e-01 5.000e-09 7.500e-01 3.500e-01 6.500e-01 5.000e-05 4.266e-15
1.500e-01 5.000e-06 1.000e-07 1.500e-01 5.000e-01 7.500e-01 4.219e-15
5.500e-01 5.000e-05 3.000e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e-06 5.000e-02 4.125e-15
5.000e-05 4.000e-01 6.500e-01 1.000e-04 6.000e-01 5.000e-06 3.900e-15
9.990e-01 1.000e-03 5.000e-06 8.000e-01 9.500e-01 1.000e-06 3.796e-15
1.500e-01 5.000e-06 2.000e-01 1.000e-06 1.000e-01 2.500e-01 3.750e-15
5.000e-05 8.000e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e-06 1.000e-02 9.000e-01 3.600e-15
1.000e-04 8.500e-01 5.000e-07 9.900e-01 8.500e-01 1.000e-04 3.576e-15
9.500e-01 1.000e-06 5.000e-02 5.000e-03 3.000e-01 5.000e-05 3.563e-15
3.000e-01 1.000e-06 8.500e-01 1.000e-07 3.000e-01 4.500e-01 3.443e-15
1.000e-08 9.990e-01 7.500e-01 8.500e-01 5.000e-01 1.000e-06 3.184e-15
5.000e-09 1.500e-01 6.500e-01 8.500e-01 1.000e-05 7.500e-01 3.108e-15
1.000e-02 1.000e-04 9.990e-01 5.000e-09 6.500e-01 9.500e-01 3.084e-15
5.000e-02 5.000e-02 1.000e-06 3.500e-01 5.000e-06 7.000e-01 3.063e-15
Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 28
Probability of
Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”
1.000e-09 1.000e-01 1.000e-04 4.500e-01 9.500e-01 7.000e-01 2.993e-15
1.000e-01 9.500e-01 3.000e-01 5.000e-05 2.000e-01 1.000e-08 2.850e-15
8.000e-01 1.000e-06 1.000e-02 1.000e-06 3.500e-01 9.990e-01 2.797e-15
5.000e-06 5.500e-01 1.000e-08 3.000e-01 9.500e-01 3.500e-01 2.743e-15
9.000e-01 5.000e-09 4.000e-01 5.000e-02 6.000e-01 5.000e-05 2.700e-15
3.000e-01 1.000e-05 1.000e-02 2.000e-01 5.000e-07 8.500e-01 2.550e-15
5.500e-01 5.000e-09 1.000e-05 2.000e-01 9.900e-01 4.500e-01 2.450e-15
9.500e-01 6.000e-01 1.000e-07 5.000e-06 8.500e-01 1.000e-02 2.423e-15
9.500e-01 8.000e-01 5.000e-08 6.000e-01 1.000e-06 1.000e-01 2.280e-15
1.500e-01 5.000e-07 4.000e-01 1.000e-07 9.500e-01 8.000e-01 2.280e-15
2.000e-01 4.500e-01 5.000e-07 1.000e-03 5.000e-03 1.000e-02 2.250e-15
9.990e-01 3.000e-01 5.000e-09 1.000e-02 1.000e-03 1.500e-01 2.248e-15
8.500e-01 5.000e-09 3.000e-01 1.000e-01 5.000e-05 3.500e-01 2.231e-15
5.500e-01 8.000e-01 1.000e-05 1.000e-03 1.000e-02 5.000e-05 2.200e-15
1.000e-06 7.500e-01 5.000e-08 2.000e-01 3.000e-01 9.500e-01 2.138e-15
5.000e-03 9.990e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-05 8.500e-01 1.000e-03 2.123e-15
1.000e-04 6.000e-01 1.000e-02 5.000e-06 1.000e-03 7.000e-01 2.100e-15
4.000e-01 1.000e-06 1.000e-02 1.500e-01 3.500e-01 1.000e-05 2.100e-15
2.500e-01 1.000e-05 5.500e-01 5.000e-02 6.000e-01 5.000e-08 2.063e-15
9.000e-01 6.000e-01 5.000e-05 5.000e-08 3.000e-01 5.000e-03 2.025e-15
3.000e-01 5.000e-06 1.000e-08 3.000e-01 9.990e-01 4.500e-01 2.023e-15
5.000e-05 4.000e-01 1.000e-02 5.000e-06 4.000e-01 5.000e-03 2.000e-15
4.000e-01 1.000e-01 2.000e-01 5.000e-07 1.000e-02 5.000e-05 2.000e-15
5.000e-02 1.000e-02 2.000e-01 5.000e-05 5.000e-07 8.000e-01 2.000e-15
1.000e-03 1.000e-04 6.000e-01 3.500e-01 9.500e-01 1.000e-07 1.995e-15
6.500e-01 5.000e-02 5.000e-07 1.000e-06 3.500e-01 3.500e-01 1.991e-15
1.000e-01 5.000e-05 1.000e-03 6.000e-01 1.000e-06 6.500e-01 1.950e-15
6.500e-01 1.000e-06 2.000e-01 1.000e-06 5.000e-02 3.000e-01 1.950e-15
Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 29
Probability of
Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”
8.500e-01 1.000e-04 5.000e-02 3.000e-01 1.500e-01 1.000e-08 1.913e-15
3.000e-01 1.000e-06 3.000e-01 5.000e-02 5.000e-07 8.500e-01 1.913e-15
1.500e-01 5.000e-02 5.000e-07 2.500e-01 4.000e-01 5.000e-06 1.875e-15
4.000e-01 4.000e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-07 4.500e-01 5.000e-03 1.800e-15
1.000e-01 3.500e-01 1.000e-02 5.000e-08 9.900e-01 1.000e-04 1.733e-15
6.500e-01 1.000e-05 6.500e-01 1.000e-02 5.000e-08 8.000e-01 1.690e-15
4.500e-01 1.000e-05 6.000e-01 2.500e-01 5.000e-03 5.000e-07 1.688e-15
1.000e-02 8.500e-01 1.000e-07 4.000e-01 9.500e-01 5.000e-06 1.615e-15
5.000e-09 5.000e-03 1.000e-02 4.000e-01 1.000e-01 1.500e-01 1.500e-15
9.900e-01 6.000e-01 5.000e-02 9.900e-01 5.000e-05 1.000e-09 1.470e-15
1.000e-07 5.000e-06 9.500e-01 9.500e-01 5.000e-03 6.500e-01 1.467e-15
4.000e-01 3.000e-01 5.000e-08 5.000e-03 9.500e-01 5.000e-05 1.425e-15
3.500e-01 5.000e-02 5.000e-08 7.000e-01 4.500e-01 5.000e-06 1.378e-15
1.000e-01 1.000e-06 5.000e-06 5.000e-01 5.500e-01 1.000e-02 1.375e-15
4.000e-01 5.000e-07 3.000e-01 3.000e-01 1.000e-07 7.500e-01 1.350e-15
1.000e-04 8.500e-01 1.000e-03 1.000e-06 3.000e-01 5.000e-02 1.275e-15
9.990e-01 5.000e-07 6.500e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-04 1.218e-15
9.500e-01 1.000e-08 4.000e-01 3.000e-01 9.990e-01 1.000e-06 1.139e-15
2.000e-01 1.000e-05 4.500e-01 5.000e-02 5.000e-04 5.000e-05 1.125e-15
5.000e-03 1.000e-08 7.500e-01 6.000e-01 5.000e-01 1.000e-04 1.125e-15
1.000e-03 5.000e-02 1.000e-08 5.000e-01 4.500e-01 1.000e-02 1.125e-15
1.000e-07 4.000e-01 5.000e-02 1.000e-05 3.500e-01 1.500e-01 1.050e-15
1.000e-08 5.000e-05 1.000e-02 6.000e-01 5.000e-01 7.000e-01 1.050e-15
9.990e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-07 1.000e-03 3.000e-01 6.500e-01 9.740e-16
1.500e-01 5.000e-09 8.500e-01 3.000e-01 9.990e-01 5.000e-06 9.553e-16
9.500e-01 4.000e-01 1.000e-02 5.000e-08 9.900e-01 5.000e-06 9.405e-16
4.000e-01 5.000e-06 9.990e-01 5.000e-06 1.000e-04 9.000e-01 8.991e-16
1.000e-01 1.000e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-07 5.000e-02 3.500e-01 8.750e-16
Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 30
Probability of
Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”
8.500e-01 2.000e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e-07 9.990e-01 5.000e-06 8.492e-16
5.000e-03 3.500e-01 5.000e-08 9.900e-01 1.000e-05 9.500e-01 8.229e-16
2.000e-01 6.500e-01 5.000e-05 5.000e-06 5.000e-01 5.000e-05 8.125e-16
1.000e-04 2.500e-01 1.000e-01 5.000e-08 6.500e-01 1.000e-02 8.125e-16
9.500e-01 5.000e-07 7.500e-01 5.000e-09 6.500e-01 7.000e-01 8.105e-16
5.000e-06 5.000e-02 7.500e-01 8.500e-01 1.000e-07 5.000e-02 7.969e-16
8.000e-01 4.000e-01 5.000e-07 1.000e-03 9.900e-01 5.000e-06 7.920e-16
3.000e-01 3.000e-01 1.000e-07 1.000e-06 2.000e-01 4.000e-01 7.200e-16
1.000e-05 4.000e-01 4.500e-01 5.000e-08 8.000e-01 1.000e-02 7.200e-16
1.000e-02 9.000e-01 5.000e-06 5.000e-08 7.000e-01 4.500e-01 7.088e-16
1.000e-05 5.000e-06 9.500e-01 3.500e-01 5.000e-05 8.500e-01 7.066e-16
1.000e-05 7.500e-01 3.000e-01 6.000e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-05 6.750e-16
3.500e-01 1.000e-06 1.500e-01 2.000e-01 1.000e-07 6.000e-01 6.300e-16
1.000e-01 6.500e-01 1.000e-04 1.000e-04 9.000e-01 1.000e-06 5.850e-16
5.000e-06 1.000e-06 3.000e-01 4.000e-01 9.500e-01 1.000e-03 5.700e-16
8.000e-01 1.000e-06 7.500e-01 1.000e-07 9.500e-01 1.000e-02 5.700e-16
7.500e-01 1.000e-01 1.000e-02 5.000e-04 3.000e-01 5.000e-09 5.625e-16
5.000e-05 5.000e-07 8.500e-01 4.000e-01 6.500e-01 1.000e-04 5.525e-16
9.990e-01 5.000e-09 5.000e-06 4.000e-01 1.000e-01 5.500e-01 5.495e-16
1.000e-09 1.000e-05 6.500e-01 4.000e-01 6.500e-01 3.000e-01 5.070e-16
1.000e-01 4.500e-01 5.000e-06 1.000e-02 5.000e-07 4.500e-01 5.063e-16
5.000e-02 5.000e-07 4.500e-01 2.000e-01 5.000e-07 4.500e-01 5.063e-16
1.000e-04 5.000e-09 5.000e-02 4.000e-01 1.000e-01 5.000e-01 5.000e-16
4.000e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e-05 5.000e-07 1.000e-01 2.500e-01 5.000e-16
6.500e-01 4.000e-01 5.000e-08 1.000e-02 5.000e-06 7.500e-01 4.875e-16
5.000e-05 7.500e-01 5.000e-05 6.000e-01 5.000e-07 8.500e-01 4.781e-16
3.000e-01 5.500e-01 6.000e-01 5.000e-06 9.500e-01 1.000e-09 4.703e-16
9.500e-01 5.000e-07 4.500e-01 5.000e-07 8.500e-01 5.000e-03 4.542e-16
Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 31
Probability of
Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”
9.500e-01 5.000e-05 1.000e-05 6.000e-01 1.000e-05 1.500e-01 4.275e-16
7.500e-01 6.000e-01 1.000e-07 1.000e-06 1.000e-02 9.500e-01 4.275e-16
3.000e-01 1.000e-05 7.500e-01 3.500e-01 1.000e-01 5.000e-09 3.938e-16
3.000e-01 5.000e-09 9.900e-01 5.000e-06 1.500e-01 3.500e-01 3.898e-16
5.000e-09 3.000e-01 7.500e-01 5.000e-07 8.000e-01 8.500e-01 3.825e-16
9.500e-01 1.000e-04 4.000e-01 4.000e-01 5.000e-07 5.000e-05 3.800e-16
9.990e-01 1.000e-04 1.000e-02 5.000e-08 1.000e-02 7.500e-01 3.746e-16
1.000e-04 3.000e-01 5.000e-06 1.000e-05 3.000e-01 8.000e-01 3.600e-16
8.000e-01 1.000e-06 1.000e-02 9.990e-01 1.000e-07 4.500e-01 3.596e-16
1.000e-08 5.000e-02 2.000e-01 5.000e-04 7.000e-01 1.000e-02 3.500e-16
4.000e-01 5.000e-07 1.500e-01 5.000e-08 6.500e-01 3.500e-01 3.413e-16
8.500e-01 1.000e-08 1.000e-02 5.000e-06 9.900e-01 8.000e-01 3.366e-16
1.000e-09 7.500e-01 1.500e-01 5.000e-06 6.000e-01 9.500e-01 3.206e-16
2.500e-01 1.000e-06 7.500e-01 8.500e-01 2.000e-01 1.000e-08 3.188e-16
5.000e-02 1.500e-01 8.500e-01 5.000e-02 1.000e-07 1.000e-05 3.188e-16
1.000e-06 1.000e-01 4.000e-01 5.000e-08 3.000e-01 5.000e-01 3.000e-16
4.000e-01 3.000e-01 5.000e-06 5.000e-08 9.900e-01 1.000e-02 2.970e-16
3.500e-01 7.500e-01 5.000e-01 5.000e-07 1.000e-08 4.500e-01 2.953e-16
9.000e-01 1.000e-01 1.000e-08 5.000e-05 6.500e-01 1.000e-02 2.925e-16
9.900e-01 5.000e-07 2.500e-01 1.000e-06 4.500e-01 5.000e-03 2.784e-16
1.500e-01 3.500e-01 3.500e-01 1.000e-07 1.000e-06 1.500e-01 2.756e-16
1.000e-02 5.000e-06 5.000e-02 5.500e-01 1.000e-06 2.000e-01 2.750e-16
4.000e-01 5.000e-07 5.000e-08 5.000e-02 5.000e-01 9.900e-01 2.475e-16
1.000e-07 3.000e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-01 1.000e-01 1.000e-06 2.250e-16
5.500e-01 6.000e-01 6.500e-01 1.000e-07 1.000e-06 1.000e-02 2.145e-16
7.000e-01 2.000e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-07 1.000e-07 2.000e-01 2.100e-16
9.500e-01 8.500e-01 1.000e-02 5.000e-08 5.000e-05 1.000e-02 2.019e-16
1.500e-01 5.500e-01 7.500e-01 5.000e-08 6.500e-01 1.000e-07 2.011e-16
Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 32
Probability of
Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”
1.000e-01 5.000e-06 6.500e-01 3.000e-01 2.000e-01 1.000e-08 1.950e-16
1.000e-04 5.000e-05 5.000e-07 1.000e-01 8.000e-01 9.500e-01 1.900e-16
5.000e-02 1.000e-03 7.500e-01 9.990e-01 1.000e-07 5.000e-05 1.873e-16
1.000e-04 6.000e-01 1.000e-03 5.000e-08 3.000e-01 2.000e-01 1.800e-16
4.000e-01 1.500e-01 1.000e-03 6.000e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-07 1.800e-16
9.900e-01 7.000e-01 5.000e-06 1.000e-04 5.000e-01 1.000e-06 1.733e-16
5.000e-05 3.000e-01 5.000e-06 5.000e-03 4.500e-01 1.000e-03 1.688e-16
1.000e-02 5.500e-01 2.000e-01 6.000e-01 5.000e-07 5.000e-07 1.650e-16
7.500e-01 5.000e-05 8.500e-01 1.000e-09 5.000e-01 1.000e-02 1.594e-16
3.500e-01 3.000e-01 1.000e-05 3.000e-01 1.000e-07 5.000e-03 1.575e-16
5.000e-06 2.000e-01 7.500e-01 5.000e-07 8.000e-01 5.000e-04 1.500e-16
2.500e-01 1.500e-01 8.000e-01 5.000e-08 1.000e-06 1.000e-01 1.500e-16
9.990e-01 5.000e-09 5.000e-05 1.500e-01 8.000e-01 5.000e-03 1.499e-16
5.000e-05 8.500e-01 1.000e-08 5.000e-01 1.000e-03 7.000e-01 1.488e-16
4.000e-01 1.000e-09 5.000e-01 5.000e-06 9.900e-01 1.500e-01 1.485e-16
9.900e-01 1.000e-09 9.990e-01 2.000e-01 1.000e-06 7.000e-01 1.385e-16
5.000e-06 1.000e-03 5.000e-02 1.000e-05 1.000e-01 5.500e-01 1.375e-16
3.000e-01 5.000e-07 6.000e-01 1.000e-03 3.000e-01 5.000e-06 1.350e-16
5.000e-05 4.000e-01 5.000e-05 1.000e-06 2.000e-01 6.500e-01 1.300e-16
4.000e-01 9.990e-01 6.500e-01 5.000e-08 1.000e-05 1.000e-03 1.299e-16
1.000e-04 5.000e-06 5.000e-06 7.500e-01 1.500e-01 4.500e-01 1.266e-16
4.000e-01 9.000e-01 1.000e-09 1.000e-06 9.500e-01 3.500e-01 1.197e-16
2.000e-01 7.500e-01 6.000e-01 5.000e-07 5.000e-05 5.000e-05 1.125e-16
3.500e-01 1.000e-08 9.500e-01 5.000e-07 4.500e-01 1.500e-01 1.122e-16
2.500e-01 9.500e-01 5.000e-07 1.000e-09 9.500e-01 9.500e-01 1.072e-16
1.000e-08 4.500e-01 6.000e-01 5.000e-06 1.000e-02 7.000e-01 9.450e-17
1.000e-01 7.500e-01 5.000e-08 2.500e-01 5.000e-07 2.000e-01 9.375e-17
9.500e-01 4.500e-01 5.000e-07 1.000e-03 5.000e-07 8.500e-01 9.084e-17
Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 33
Probability of
Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”
4.000e-01 8.500e-01 2.500e-01 5.000e-07 4.000e-01 5.000e-09 8.500e-17
6.500e-01 6.500e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-06 8.000e-01 5.000e-06 8.450e-17
5.000e-01 1.000e-05 7.500e-01 9.000e-01 5.000e-05 5.000e-07 8.438e-17
7.500e-01 6.000e-01 7.500e-01 5.000e-08 5.000e-01 1.000e-08 8.438e-17
9.500e-01 1.000e-08 1.000e-02 5.000e-06 5.000e-01 3.500e-01 8.313e-17
1.000e-05 5.500e-01 5.000e-01 6.000e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-06 8.250e-17
5.000e-03 6.500e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e-03 5.000e-05 5.000e-05 8.125e-17
1.000e-01 8.000e-01 5.000e-08 5.000e-06 1.000e-02 3.500e-01 7.000e-17
1.000e-09 6.000e-01 3.000e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-01 5.000e-06 6.750e-17
6.000e-01 1.000e-09 5.000e-01 5.000e-02 4.500e-01 1.000e-05 6.750e-17
8.500e-01 4.500e-01 5.000e-07 2.000e-01 3.500e-01 5.000e-09 6.694e-17
5.000e-02 5.000e-02 5.000e-08 5.000e-06 1.000e-01 9.900e-01 6.188e-17
1.000e-06 2.500e-01 5.000e-07 9.900e-01 1.000e-01 5.000e-03 6.188e-17
5.500e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e-08 3.000e-01 5.000e-06 6.188e-17
1.000e-01 1.000e-03 1.000e-08 1.000e-04 9.500e-01 6.500e-01 6.175e-17
1.000e-03 6.000e-01 5.000e-06 1.000e-06 2.000e-01 1.000e-01 6.000e-17
4.000e-01 3.500e-01 1.000e-07 8.500e-01 1.000e-03 5.000e-06 5.950e-17
1.000e-05 1.000e-01 2.000e-01 9.900e-01 3.000e-01 1.000e-09 5.940e-17
1.000e-02 5.000e-05 1.000e-02 1.000e-07 7.500e-01 1.500e-01 5.625e-17
1.000e-07 8.500e-01 6.500e-01 5.000e-07 2.000e-01 1.000e-02 5.525e-17
8.500e-01 5.000e-09 7.000e-01 3.500e-01 5.000e-01 1.000e-07 5.206e-17
5.000e-06 4.500e-01 1.000e-06 9.000e-01 5.000e-05 5.000e-01 5.063e-17
4.000e-01 5.000e-07 1.000e-02 5.000e-05 1.000e-01 5.000e-03 5.000e-17
9.900e-01 5.000e-02 5.000e-08 5.000e-06 1.000e-02 4.000e-01 4.950e-17
9.000e-01 1.000e-05 1.000e-05 3.500e-01 1.000e-05 1.500e-01 4.725e-17
4.500e-01 2.000e-01 5.000e-08 5.000e-02 2.000e-01 1.000e-06 4.500e-17
8.000e-01 5.000e-07 4.500e-01 5.000e-01 1.000e-02 5.000e-08 4.500e-17
5.000e-05 5.000e-05 7.500e-01 5.000e-07 9.500e-01 5.000e-02 4.453e-17
Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 34
Probability of
Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”
5.000e-02 1.000e-04 2.500e-01 1.000e-07 1.000e-03 3.500e-01 4.375e-17
3.500e-01 5.000e-05 5.000e-06 5.000e-03 9.900e-01 1.000e-04 4.331e-17
1.000e-05 8.500e-01 1.000e-08 2.000e-01 5.000e-01 5.000e-03 4.250e-17
5.000e-02 5.000e-07 5.000e-04 1.000e-05 4.500e-01 7.500e-01 4.219e-17
5.000e-05 1.000e-05 7.500e-01 2.500e-01 1.000e-06 4.500e-01 4.219e-17
5.000e-06 8.500e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e-05 1.000e-04 9.900e-01 4.208e-17
3.500e-01 1.000e-06 1.000e-09 4.000e-01 9.990e-01 3.000e-01 4.196e-17
3.000e-01 5.000e-09 6.500e-01 1.000e-07 6.500e-01 6.500e-01 4.119e-17
1.000e-08 1.000e-07 1.500e-01 7.000e-01 7.500e-01 4.500e-01 3.544e-17
5.000e-06 1.000e-05 5.000e-01 5.000e-06 3.500e-01 8.000e-01 3.500e-17
5.000e-06 4.000e-01 7.000e-01 5.000e-08 1.000e-01 5.000e-03 3.500e-17
1.500e-01 1.000e-08 5.000e-06 8.000e-01 5.500e-01 1.000e-02 3.300e-17
9.500e-01 5.000e-07 1.000e-03 1.000e-07 8.000e-01 8.500e-01 3.230e-17
4.500e-01 1.000e-09 2.000e-01 5.000e-02 1.000e-05 7.000e-01 3.150e-17
3.500e-01 5.000e-02 5.000e-08 9.000e-01 5.000e-08 8.000e-01 3.150e-17
9.900e-01 7.500e-01 7.500e-01 5.000e-08 1.000e-09 9.900e-01 2.757e-17
1.500e-01 4.500e-01 1.000e-09 1.000e-06 5.000e-01 7.500e-01 2.531e-17
2.000e-01 5.000e-02 5.000e-04 1.000e-09 5.000e-02 1.000e-01 2.500e-17
5.500e-01 1.000e-08 2.000e-01 5.000e-06 5.000e-03 9.000e-01 2.475e-17
9.990e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-08 5.000e-02 1.000e-03 9.900e-01 2.473e-17
9.900e-01 5.000e-06 9.990e-01 5.000e-04 1.000e-03 1.000e-05 2.473e-17
6.500e-01 6.000e-01 1.000e-07 2.500e-01 5.000e-07 5.000e-03 2.438e-17
6.500e-01 9.990e-01 5.000e-08 1.000e-08 3.000e-01 2.500e-01 2.435e-17
4.000e-01 1.000e-06 5.000e-01 1.500e-01 1.000e-09 8.000e-01 2.400e-17
4.000e-01 8.500e-01 1.000e-08 5.000e-08 2.000e-01 7.000e-01 2.380e-17
9.000e-01 1.000e-06 5.000e-06 5.000e-02 1.000e-01 1.000e-03 2.250e-17
1.000e-02 8.500e-01 1.000e-09 5.000e-06 7.500e-01 7.000e-01 2.231e-17
1.500e-01 6.500e-01 5.000e-08 1.000e-06 9.000e-01 5.000e-03 2.194e-17
Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 35
Probability of
Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”
1.500e-01 3.000e-01 1.000e-02 5.000e-08 9.500e-01 1.000e-06 2.138e-17
1.000e-01 8.500e-01 5.000e-08 9.990e-01 1.000e-01 5.000e-08 2.123e-17
1.500e-01 9.500e-01 5.000e-07 3.000e-01 9.900e-01 1.000e-09 2.116e-17
5.500e-01 1.000e-08 6.000e-01 5.000e-06 2.500e-01 5.000e-03 2.063e-17
3.000e-01 1.000e-05 4.500e-01 1.500e-01 1.000e-08 1.000e-02 2.025e-17
3.500e-01 3.500e-01 5.000e-04 1.000e-07 6.500e-01 5.000e-06 1.991e-17
9.990e-01 3.000e-01 6.500e-01 1.000e-09 9.900e-01 1.000e-07 1.929e-17
5.000e-05 4.000e-01 5.000e-08 7.000e-01 5.500e-01 5.000e-05 1.925e-17
1.000e-02 4.000e-01 9.500e-01 5.000e-09 1.000e-06 9.900e-01 1.881e-17
3.000e-01 5.000e-06 5.000e-02 1.000e-06 2.500e-01 1.000e-03 1.875e-17
9.990e-01 5.000e-02 7.500e-01 1.000e-03 5.000e-04 1.000e-09 1.873e-17
3.000e-01 7.500e-01 6.500e-01 5.000e-07 5.000e-02 5.000e-09 1.828e-17
1.000e-02 4.000e-01 1.000e-05 1.000e-02 4.500e-01 1.000e-07 1.800e-17
4.000e-01 1.000e-04 5.500e-01 5.000e-05 3.000e-01 5.000e-08 1.650e-17
1.000e-09 1.000e-03 5.000e-05 3.500e-01 9.500e-01 9.900e-01 1.646e-17
5.000e-03 1.000e-04 1.000e-05 7.500e-01 5.000e-06 8.500e-01 1.594e-17
9.900e-01 1.000e-01 1.000e-09 1.000e-06 4.000e-01 4.000e-01 1.584e-17
6.000e-01 1.000e-04 5.000e-01 5.000e-05 1.000e-05 1.000e-03 1.500e-17
1.000e-08 5.000e-02 1.000e-02 1.000e-05 3.500e-01 8.500e-01 1.488e-17
5.000e-05 3.500e-01 1.000e-08 2.000e-01 5.000e-04 8.500e-01 1.488e-17
5.000e-09 9.990e-01 3.000e-01 1.000e-07 6.500e-01 1.500e-01 1.461e-17
4.000e-01 5.000e-09 1.000e-07 3.000e-01 3.000e-01 7.500e-01 1.350e-17
4.000e-01 1.000e-06 5.000e-06 5.000e-05 3.000e-01 4.500e-01 1.350e-17
1.500e-01 9.000e-01 1.000e-03 1.000e-06 1.000e-05 1.000e-02 1.350e-17
3.000e-01 1.000e-08 9.900e-01 3.000e-01 1.000e-07 1.500e-01 1.337e-17
1.000e-08 1.000e-03 9.990e-01 5.000e-02 5.000e-05 5.000e-01 1.249e-17
5.000e-09 5.000e-07 5.000e-02 1.500e-01 9.990e-01 6.500e-01 1.218e-17
9.000e-01 1.000e-06 7.500e-01 5.000e-06 1.000e-05 3.500e-01 1.181e-17
Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 36
Probability of
Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”
1.000e-08 8.500e-01 5.500e-01 5.000e-09 6.500e-01 7.500e-01 1.140e-17
1.000e-05 5.000e-03 5.000e-02 4.500e-01 1.000e-08 9.900e-01 1.114e-17
5.500e-01 1.000e-01 5.000e-08 4.000e-01 1.000e-07 1.000e-01 1.100e-17
1.000e-08 4.500e-01 1.000e-08 4.000e-01 6.000e-01 9.900e-01 1.069e-17
1.500e-01 5.000e-07 1.000e-04 3.000e-01 9.500e-01 5.000e-06 1.069e-17
4.000e-01 1.000e-01 5.000e-05 1.000e-06 1.000e-01 5.000e-05 1.000e-17
1.000e-04 5.000e-06 2.000e-01 5.000e-05 5.000e-03 4.000e-01 1.000e-17
7.500e-01 7.000e-01 9.500e-01 5.000e-08 1.000e-09 4.000e-01 9.975e-18
7.500e-01 5.000e-07 1.000e-09 3.500e-01 3.000e-01 2.500e-01 9.844e-18
6.500e-01 7.500e-01 5.000e-08 1.000e-05 7.500e-01 5.000e-05 9.141e-18
5.000e-05 5.000e-07 1.000e-04 5.000e-03 9.500e-01 7.500e-01 8.906e-18
9.990e-01 7.000e-01 5.000e-04 5.000e-07 5.000e-02 1.000e-06 8.741e-18
2.000e-01 5.000e-07 1.000e-02 5.000e-08 2.000e-01 8.500e-01 8.500e-18
2.000e-01 8.000e-01 5.000e-08 5.000e-08 2.000e-01 1.000e-01 8.000e-18
1.000e-07 4.000e-01 4.000e-01 1.000e-05 9.990e-01 5.000e-05 7.992e-18
1.000e-01 5.000e-09 4.500e-01 7.000e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-03 7.875e-18
1.000e-03 6.000e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-08 3.500e-01 5.000e-06 7.875e-18
1.000e-05 6.000e-01 5.000e-08 5.000e-04 5.000e-01 1.000e-01 7.500e-18
5.000e-01 3.000e-01 1.000e-07 1.000e-02 1.000e-01 5.000e-07 7.500e-18
1.000e-03 4.000e-01 5.000e-02 5.000e-06 1.000e-07 7.500e-01 7.500e-18
8.500e-01 1.000e-06 1.000e-01 8.000e-01 1.000e-04 1.000e-06 6.800e-18
1.000e-09 4.500e-01 1.000e-05 9.900e-01 3.000e-01 5.000e-03 6.683e-18
1.000e-09 4.500e-01 7.500e-01 5.000e-08 4.000e-01 9.900e-01 6.683e-18
5.000e-06 3.500e-01 5.000e-06 3.000e-01 5.000e-01 5.000e-06 6.563e-18
5.000e-05 1.000e-09 6.500e-01 1.000e-02 4.000e-01 5.000e-02 6.500e-18
5.000e-05 5.000e-09 9.990e-01 5.000e-03 5.000e-03 9.990e-01 6.238e-18
9.500e-01 5.000e-07 1.000e-05 2.000e-01 1.000e-05 6.500e-01 6.175e-18
3.000e-01 4.000e-01 5.000e-09 4.500e-01 5.000e-08 4.500e-01 6.075e-18
Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 37
Probability of
Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”
4.000e-01 4.000e-01 5.000e-09 1.500e-01 1.000e-02 5.000e-06 6.000e-18
4.000e-01 3.000e-01 5.000e-06 1.000e-08 9.500e-01 1.000e-03 5.700e-18
5.000e-03 6.000e-01 5.000e-04 1.000e-05 5.000e-07 7.500e-01 5.625e-18
2.500e-01 5.000e-07 2.000e-01 5.000e-05 1.000e-05 4.500e-01 5.625e-18
5.500e-01 5.000e-05 5.000e-04 1.000e-06 4.000e-01 1.000e-03 5.500e-18
4.000e-01 4.500e-01 5.000e-08 7.500e-01 5.000e-09 1.500e-01 5.063e-18
4.000e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-05 1.000e-03 5.000e-04 5.000e-02 5.000e-18
5.000e-06 5.000e-02 1.000e-04 7.500e-01 5.000e-05 5.000e-03 4.688e-18
5.000e-09 9.000e-01 5.000e-07 1.000e-01 4.000e-01 5.000e-02 4.500e-18
5.000e-05 9.990e-01 1.000e-09 1.000e-02 9.000e-01 1.000e-02 4.496e-18
4.500e-01 1.000e-04 9.990e-01 1.000e-06 9.500e-01 1.000e-07 4.271e-18
2.500e-01 6.500e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-06 1.000e-03 5.000e-04 4.063e-18
1.000e-09 5.000e-07 9.500e-01 5.000e-02 8.500e-01 2.000e-01 4.038e-18
5.000e-05 5.000e-02 4.500e-01 1.000e-06 5.000e-06 7.000e-01 3.938e-18
1.500e-01 1.000e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e-07 5.000e-03 5.000e-05 3.750e-18
5.000e-06 1.000e-04 7.500e-01 5.000e-08 2.000e-01 9.900e-01 3.713e-18
9.990e-01 8.500e-01 5.000e-08 1.000e-03 1.000e-07 8.500e-01 3.609e-18
1.000e-03 5.000e-07 2.500e-01 8.000e-01 5.000e-08 7.000e-01 3.500e-18
1.000e-05 9.990e-01 1.000e-06 7.000e-01 1.000e-01 5.000e-06 3.497e-18
3.500e-01 5.000e-09 4.000e-01 9.000e-01 5.500e-01 1.000e-08 3.465e-18
1.500e-01 5.000e-05 4.000e-01 5.000e-06 5.000e-07 4.500e-01 3.375e-18
8.000e-01 6.000e-01 5.000e-08 2.000e-01 1.000e-09 7.000e-01 3.360e-18
5.000e-06 8.000e-01 5.000e-05 5.000e-01 5.000e-08 6.500e-01 3.250e-18
1.000e-07 2.500e-01 4.000e-01 1.000e-03 5.000e-07 6.500e-01 3.250e-18
3.000e-01 1.000e-09 6.500e-01 3.500e-01 9.500e-01 5.000e-08 3.242e-18
5.500e-01 1.500e-01 1.000e-07 1.500e-01 5.000e-04 5.000e-06 3.094e-18
7.500e-01 1.000e-08 7.500e-01 5.000e-02 1.000e-01 1.000e-07 2.813e-18
2.500e-01 6.000e-01 5.000e-08 1.000e-05 7.500e-01 5.000e-05 2.813e-18
Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 38
Probability of
Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”
3.000e-01 8.000e-01 5.000e-08 1.000e-07 4.500e-01 5.000e-03 2.700e-18
5.000e-03 7.500e-01 5.000e-07 4.000e-01 1.000e-08 3.500e-01 2.625e-18
1.500e-01 4.000e-01 5.000e-05 1.000e-06 1.000e-06 8.500e-01 2.550e-18
5.000e-05 1.000e-07 4.500e-01 5.000e-05 4.500e-01 5.000e-02 2.531e-18
9.500e-01 5.000e-09 5.000e-01 1.000e-06 5.000e-03 2.000e-01 2.375e-18
9.000e-01 1.000e-02 5.000e-08 7.500e-01 1.000e-08 7.000e-01 2.363e-18
1.000e-05 1.000e-06 7.000e-01 1.500e-01 4.500e-01 5.000e-06 2.363e-18
1.000e-02 5.000e-06 5.000e-04 7.500e-01 5.000e-07 2.500e-01 2.344e-18
4.000e-01 5.000e-05 5.000e-02 1.000e-07 4.500e-01 5.000e-05 2.250e-18
1.500e-01 1.000e-07 5.000e-02 1.000e-03 5.000e-06 6.000e-01 2.250e-18
1.000e-02 1.000e-05 7.500e-01 3.000e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e-08 2.250e-18
8.000e-01 1.000e-07 1.000e-09 2.000e-01 3.500e-01 4.000e-01 2.240e-18
5.000e-02 5.000e-04 5.000e-07 1.000e-03 3.500e-01 5.000e-04 2.188e-18
9.500e-01 6.500e-01 7.000e-01 1.000e-07 1.000e-05 5.000e-06 2.161e-18
4.000e-01 8.500e-01 5.000e-09 5.000e-07 5.000e-01 5.000e-03 2.125e-18
1.000e-05 4.000e-01 5.000e-07 3.000e-01 1.000e-05 3.500e-01 2.100e-18
5.000e-06 6.000e-01 1.000e-02 5.000e-05 5.000e-06 2.500e-01 1.875e-18
1.000e-05 1.000e-01 1.500e-01 5.000e-04 5.000e-04 5.000e-05 1.875e-18
5.000e-06 5.000e-03 2.500e-01 1.500e-01 1.000e-08 2.000e-01 1.875e-18
5.000e-05 1.500e-01 5.000e-02 5.000e-08 1.000e-02 1.000e-02 1.875e-18
5.000e-06 1.000e-03 5.000e-08 3.000e-01 1.000e-01 2.500e-01 1.875e-18
3.000e-01 5.000e-09 9.900e-01 2.500e-01 1.000e-07 5.000e-02 1.856e-18
1.000e-01 1.000e-09 5.000e-08 5.500e-01 9.500e-01 7.000e-01 1.829e-18
1.000e-05 3.000e-01 6.500e-01 9.000e-01 1.000e-09 1.000e-03 1.755e-18
5.500e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-07 1.000e-06 5.000e-05 8.500e-01 1.753e-18
1.000e-07 1.000e-09 8.500e-01 9.990e-01 2.000e-01 1.000e-01 1.698e-18
1.000e-09 1.000e-05 5.000e-01 5.000e-03 4.500e-01 1.500e-01 1.688e-18
5.500e-01 6.000e-01 5.000e-07 9.900e-01 1.000e-07 1.000e-04 1.634e-18
Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 39
Probability of
Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”
1.000e-06 1.000e-07 1.000e-02 6.500e-01 1.000e-02 2.500e-01 1.625e-18
9.990e-01 8.500e-01 5.000e-08 1.500e-01 5.000e-06 5.000e-05 1.592e-18
1.500e-01 1.000e-04 1.000e-04 1.000e-01 2.000e-01 5.000e-08 1.500e-18
4.000e-01 5.000e-07 1.000e-06 3.000e-01 5.000e-05 5.000e-01 1.500e-18
1.000e-05 1.500e-01 5.000e-04 1.000e-08 9.900e-01 2.000e-01 1.485e-18
1.000e-08 8.500e-01 4.000e-01 1.000e-03 5.000e-07 8.500e-01 1.445e-18
9.500e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-07 1.000e-03 3.000e-01 1.000e-03 1.425e-18
1.000e-09 1.000e-08 8.000e-01 2.500e-01 9.900e-01 7.000e-01 1.386e-18
1.000e-05 5.500e-01 5.000e-04 5.000e-02 9.500e-01 1.000e-08 1.306e-18
5.000e-02 2.000e-01 5.000e-08 5.000e-01 5.000e-07 1.000e-02 1.250e-18
2.500e-01 5.000e-07 5.000e-08 5.000e-04 4.000e-01 9.900e-01 1.238e-18
5.000e-02 1.000e-05 6.500e-01 5.000e-05 5.000e-07 1.500e-01 1.219e-18
1.000e-07 5.000e-06 6.000e-01 1.000e-03 8.000e-01 5.000e-03 1.200e-18
1.000e-04 8.000e-01 5.000e-09 1.000e-05 3.500e-01 8.500e-01 1.190e-18
5.000e-03 1.000e-04 5.000e-02 1.000e-09 9.500e-01 5.000e-02 1.188e-18
9.500e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-03 5.000e-02 1.000e-07 5.000e-03 1.188e-18
4.000e-01 1.000e-09 5.000e-08 4.000e-01 9.500e-01 1.500e-01 1.140e-18
9.500e-01 9.500e-01 5.000e-08 5.000e-08 5.000e-04 9.990e-01 1.127e-18
1.000e-07 5.000e-02 7.500e-01 6.000e-01 1.000e-06 5.000e-04 1.125e-18
7.500e-01 1.000e-07 3.000e-01 5.000e-06 9.500e-01 1.000e-05 1.069e-18
5.000e-06 5.000e-07 5.000e-05 8.500e-01 2.000e-01 5.000e-02 1.063e-18
1.000e-09 1.000e-04 1.500e-01 1.000e-03 1.000e-01 7.000e-01 1.050e-18
1.500e-01 3.500e-01 5.000e-08 6.000e-01 1.000e-09 6.500e-01 1.024e-18
1.000e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-05 5.000e-05 4.000e-01 1.000e-03 1.000e-18
1.000e-03 1.000e-03 1.000e-03 1.000e-03 1.000e-03 1.000e-03 1.000e-18
5.000e-05 5.000e-04 8.500e-01 5.000e-06 9.000e-01 1.000e-05 9.563e-19
1.000e-03 1.000e-04 9.500e-01 1.000e-03 9.900e-01 1.000e-08 9.405e-19
5.000e-09 1.000e-01 7.500e-01 9.900e-01 5.000e-05 5.000e-05 9.281e-19
Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 40
Probability of
Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”
1.500e-01 3.000e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-06 5.000e-07 8.000e-01 9.000e-19
1.000e-03 4.500e-01 5.000e-08 5.000e-06 1.000e-02 8.000e-01 9.000e-19
3.000e-01 5.000e-07 5.000e-05 5.000e-06 1.500e-01 1.500e-01 8.438e-19
5.000e-06 5.000e-06 6.500e-01 2.500e-01 5.000e-07 4.000e-01 8.125e-19
5.000e-02 4.000e-01 5.000e-06 1.000e-03 8.000e-01 1.000e-08 8.000e-19
1.000e-09 1.000e-07 2.500e-01 3.500e-01 1.000e-01 9.000e-01 7.875e-19
4.500e-01 3.500e-01 1.000e-08 5.000e-06 9.900e-01 1.000e-04 7.796e-19
1.000e-04 1.000e-03 2.000e-01 5.000e-04 7.500e-01 1.000e-07 7.500e-19
1.000e-08 4.500e-01 2.000e-01 1.000e-09 9.500e-01 8.500e-01 7.268e-19
6.500e-01 5.000e-07 4.500e-01 5.000e-06 9.900e-01 1.000e-06 7.239e-19
5.000e-01 3.500e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e-08 4.000e-01 1.000e-07 7.000e-19
5.500e-01 2.500e-01 1.000e-08 5.000e-02 9.990e-01 1.000e-08 6.868e-19
1.500e-01 4.500e-01 5.000e-08 2.000e-01 1.000e-01 1.000e-08 6.750e-19
1.000e-05 1.000e-05 6.000e-01 2.500e-01 1.000e-07 4.500e-01 6.750e-19
5.000e-05 9.000e-01 5.000e-06 1.000e-02 1.000e-06 3.000e-01 6.750e-19
3.500e-01 5.000e-09 1.000e-07 1.000e-02 4.500e-01 8.500e-01 6.694e-19
1.000e-03 1.000e-08 4.000e-01 3.500e-01 9.500e-01 5.000e-07 6.650e-19
1.000e-07 5.000e-06 1.000e-04 1.500e-01 3.500e-01 2.500e-01 6.563e-19
1.000e-06 7.000e-01 7.500e-01 5.000e-06 5.000e-05 5.000e-03 6.563e-19
5.000e-01 1.000e-05 1.500e-01 1.000e-07 1.000e-05 8.500e-01 6.375e-19
1.000e-08 6.500e-01 6.500e-01 3.000e-01 1.000e-07 5.000e-03 6.338e-19
1.000e-01 5.000e-02 5.000e-02 5.000e-04 5.000e-09 1.000e-03 6.250e-19
5.000e-05 5.000e-07 2.000e-01 3.500e-01 1.000e-06 3.500e-01 6.125e-19
1.000e-05 1.000e-06 4.000e-01 5.000e-06 2.000e-01 1.500e-01 6.000e-19
5.000e-05 6.000e-01 8.500e-01 1.000e-08 4.500e-01 5.000e-06 5.738e-19
1.000e-05 5.000e-07 3.000e-01 5.000e-04 7.500e-01 1.000e-03 5.625e-19
7.500e-01 6.000e-01 5.000e-08 1.000e-03 5.000e-07 5.000e-02 5.625e-19
8.000e-01 1.500e-01 5.000e-06 1.000e-05 1.000e-07 9.000e-01 5.400e-19
Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 41
Probability of
Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”
5.000e-05 5.000e-07 1.000e-02 5.000e-06 9.500e-01 4.500e-01 5.344e-19
1.500e-01 5.500e-01 5.000e-02 5.000e-07 5.000e-05 5.000e-06 5.156e-19
1.000e-03 9.990e-01 8.500e-01 6.000e-01 1.000e-07 1.000e-08 5.095e-19
5.000e-02 4.500e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-09 4.500e-01 1.000e-03 5.063e-19
1.000e-09 7.500e-01 3.000e-01 9.000e-01 5.000e-05 5.000e-05 5.063e-19
4.000e-01 5.000e-05 2.000e-01 1.000e-06 5.000e-07 2.500e-01 5.000e-19
1.000e-04 5.000e-07 5.000e-01 8.000e-01 5.000e-01 5.000e-08 5.000e-19
9.900e-01 1.000e-06 2.000e-01 5.000e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-07 4.950e-19
1.000e-01 1.000e-03 5.000e-07 1.000e-06 9.900e-01 1.000e-02 4.950e-19
1.000e-03 5.000e-07 2.000e-01 1.000e-04 9.500e-01 5.000e-05 4.750e-19
5.000e-05 1.000e-03 5.000e-05 7.500e-01 5.000e-03 5.000e-05 4.688e-19
4.000e-01 6.000e-01 5.000e-05 5.000e-06 7.500e-01 1.000e-08 4.500e-19
9.990e-01 1.000e-09 6.000e-01 7.500e-01 9.990e-01 1.000e-09 4.491e-19
1.500e-01 5.000e-07 1.000e-08 1.000e-03 9.900e-01 6.000e-01 4.455e-19
3.500e-01 5.000e-06 5.000e-02 1.000e-07 5.000e-03 1.000e-02 4.375e-19
1.000e-04 1.000e-01 5.000e-02 1.000e-07 1.000e-05 8.500e-01 4.250e-19
9.990e-01 8.500e-01 1.000e-05 1.000e-05 5.000e-07 1.000e-02 4.246e-19
5.000e-01 4.500e-01 5.000e-02 5.000e-08 1.500e-01 5.000e-09 4.219e-19
1.500e-01 5.000e-07 3.000e-01 7.500e-01 5.000e-07 5.000e-05 4.219e-19
5.000e-04 5.000e-09 5.000e-06 1.500e-01 4.500e-01 4.500e-01 3.797e-19
9.000e-01 1.000e-09 5.000e-08 2.000e-01 1.000e-01 4.000e-01 3.600e-19
1.000e-02 5.000e-07 9.500e-01 1.000e-07 7.500e-01 1.000e-03 3.563e-19
6.500e-01 8.500e-01 5.000e-06 5.000e-08 5.000e-05 5.000e-02 3.453e-19
2.500e-01 1.000e-08 8.500e-01 5.000e-07 6.500e-01 5.000e-04 3.453e-19
1.000e-04 1.000e-09 2.000e-01 7.500e-01 4.500e-01 5.000e-05 3.375e-19
9.500e-01 1.000e-06 1.000e-05 2.000e-01 5.000e-07 3.500e-01 3.325e-19
5.000e-07 1.000e-03 7.500e-01 1.000e-08 8.500e-01 1.000e-01 3.188e-19
1.000e-08 3.500e-01 4.000e-01 5.000e-03 9.000e-01 5.000e-08 3.150e-19
Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 42
Probability of
Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”
4.000e-01 5.000e-07 1.000e-08 7.000e-01 4.000e-01 5.000e-04 2.800e-19
5.000e-05 6.000e-01 2.000e-01 1.000e-08 4.500e-01 1.000e-05 2.700e-19
1.000e-01 5.000e-02 9.500e-01 1.000e-09 1.000e-07 5.500e-01 2.613e-19
1.000e-08 1.500e-01 1.000e-08 1.000e-01 8.000e-01 2.000e-01 2.400e-19
1.000e-02 1.000e-05 1.000e-05 3.000e-01 8.000e-01 1.000e-06 2.400e-19
1.000e-04 4.500e-01 1.000e-05 1.000e-08 2.000e-01 2.500e-01 2.250e-19
5.000e-06 3.000e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-05 4.000e-01 5.000e-08 2.250e-19
1.000e-07 4.500e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-01 9.500e-01 1.000e-06 2.138e-19
9.990e-01 5.000e-07 1.000e-05 8.500e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-03 2.123e-19
1.000e-09 1.000e-05 1.000e-03 5.000e-02 6.500e-01 6.000e-01 1.950e-19
9.000e-01 1.000e-02 4.500e-01 5.000e-08 9.500e-01 1.000e-09 1.924e-19
5.500e-01 1.000e-06 4.500e-01 1.000e-03 7.500e-01 1.000e-09 1.856e-19
1.000e-07 4.500e-01 9.990e-01 1.000e-06 5.000e-06 8.000e-01 1.798e-19
5.500e-01 1.000e-05 1.000e-05 1.000e-06 6.500e-01 5.000e-03 1.788e-19
1.000e-01 1.000e-01 3.500e-01 5.000e-08 1.000e-09 9.900e-01 1.733e-19
5.000e-09 6.000e-01 1.500e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-07 5.000e-03 1.688e-19
7.500e-01 8.500e-01 1.000e-05 1.000e-06 5.000e-07 5.000e-02 1.594e-19
1.000e-05 7.500e-01 5.000e-06 5.000e-08 8.000e-01 1.000e-01 1.500e-19
2.500e-01 5.000e-07 7.500e-01 6.000e-01 5.000e-07 5.000e-06 1.406e-19
5.000e-08 1.000e-05 5.000e-02 8.000e-01 7.000e-01 1.000e-05 1.400e-19
5.000e-05 8.500e-01 5.000e-09 2.500e-01 5.000e-04 5.000e-03 1.328e-19
3.500e-01 1.000e-09 5.000e-06 5.000e-02 1.500e-01 1.000e-02 1.313e-19
5.000e-06 1.000e-04 6.500e-01 5.000e-08 8.000e-01 1.000e-02 1.300e-19
9.990e-01 5.000e-07 1.000e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-01 5.000e-07 1.249e-19
9.500e-01 5.500e-01 5.000e-09 5.000e-08 1.000e-03 9.500e-01 1.241e-19
1.000e-04 7.000e-01 2.000e-01 5.000e-07 5.000e-08 3.500e-01 1.225e-19
8.500e-01 1.000e-05 9.500e-01 1.000e-08 1.000e-05 1.500e-01 1.211e-19
3.000e-01 1.000e-04 8.000e-01 5.000e-03 1.000e-09 1.000e-03 1.200e-19
Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 43
Probability of
Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”
1.000e-09 6.000e-01 4.000e-01 1.000e-02 9.900e-01 5.000e-08 1.188e-19
5.000e-02 1.000e-09 5.000e-03 1.000e-05 4.500e-01 1.000e-01 1.125e-19
1.000e-02 1.000e-04 7.500e-01 1.000e-06 1.000e-06 1.500e-01 1.125e-19
3.000e-01 3.000e-01 5.000e-04 5.000e-07 1.000e-05 5.000e-04 1.125e-19
9.990e-01 1.500e-01 3.000e-01 5.000e-08 1.000e-05 5.000e-06 1.124e-19
1.000e-08 4.500e-01 5.000e-08 5.000e-03 6.500e-01 1.500e-01 1.097e-19
9.500e-01 5.000e-09 7.500e-01 6.000e-01 5.000e-06 1.000e-05 1.069e-19
1.000e-05 1.000e-01 3.000e-01 7.000e-01 5.000e-09 1.000e-04 1.050e-19
5.000e-05 1.000e-04 1.000e-05 4.000e-01 1.000e-01 5.000e-05 1.000e-19
4.000e-01 5.000e-06 1.000e-02 9.900e-01 1.000e-06 5.000e-06 9.900e-20
4.000e-01 1.000e-09 7.500e-01 1.000e-04 6.500e-01 5.000e-06 9.750e-20
9.990e-01 5.000e-09 1.000e-02 3.000e-01 1.000e-08 6.500e-01 9.740e-20
1.000e-09 5.000e-05 2.000e-01 2.000e-01 9.500e-01 5.000e-05 9.500e-20
9.500e-01 9.500e-01 4.000e-01 5.000e-06 5.000e-08 1.000e-06 9.025e-20
5.000e-06 1.000e-05 1.000e-02 5.000e-07 9.990e-01 3.500e-01 8.741e-20
5.000e-06 1.000e-08 7.500e-01 5.000e-06 4.500e-01 9.900e-01 8.353e-20
4.000e-01 4.000e-01 1.000e-05 1.000e-07 9.500e-01 5.000e-07 7.600e-20
5.500e-01 8.500e-01 5.000e-06 1.000e-05 5.000e-09 6.500e-01 7.597e-20
5.000e-05 5.000e-07 5.000e-08 2.000e-01 4.000e-01 7.500e-01 7.500e-20
2.500e-01 4.000e-01 1.000e-07 1.000e-06 1.500e-01 5.000e-05 7.500e-20
9.990e-01 5.000e-09 7.500e-01 1.000e-06 4.000e-01 5.000e-05 7.493e-20
3.000e-01 1.000e-06 1.000e-04 5.000e-07 5.000e-03 9.990e-01 7.493e-20
3.500e-01 1.000e-07 5.000e-05 5.000e-05 7.500e-01 1.000e-03 6.563e-20
5.000e-03 1.000e-08 7.500e-01 5.000e-08 1.000e-01 3.500e-01 6.563e-20
1.000e-01 3.500e-01 7.500e-01 5.000e-06 1.000e-07 5.000e-06 6.563e-20
5.000e-05 4.500e-01 7.500e-01 5.000e-07 1.500e-01 5.000e-08 6.328e-20
9.500e-01 7.000e-01 5.000e-08 7.500e-01 5.000e-07 5.000e-06 6.234e-20
5.000e-06 7.500e-01 1.000e-02 5.000e-08 6.500e-01 5.000e-05 6.094e-20
Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 44
Probability of
Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”
5.000e-06 5.500e-01 5.000e-08 6.000e-01 1.000e-06 7.000e-01 5.775e-20
5.500e-01 5.000e-09 1.000e-04 1.000e-03 1.000e-03 2.000e-01 5.500e-20
5.000e-09 4.000e-01 6.500e-01 1.000e-06 8.000e-01 5.000e-05 5.200e-20
1.000e-01 1.000e-01 5.000e-09 1.000e-08 9.500e-01 1.000e-01 4.750e-20
5.000e-09 4.500e-01 1.000e-02 9.990e-01 2.000e-01 1.000e-08 4.496e-20
5.000e-06 7.500e-01 3.500e-01 1.000e-07 5.000e-07 6.500e-01 4.266e-20
5.000e-05 5.000e-09 4.500e-01 3.500e-01 5.000e-06 2.000e-01 3.938e-20
1.000e-01 5.000e-07 5.000e-02 3.000e-01 5.000e-07 1.000e-04 3.750e-20
1.000e-09 5.000e-05 5.000e-02 3.000e-01 9.990e-01 5.000e-05 3.746e-20
9.990e-01 1.000e-06 5.000e-08 3.000e-01 5.000e-01 5.000e-06 3.746e-20
1.000e-03 8.500e-01 1.000e-01 1.000e-08 5.000e-08 8.500e-01 3.613e-20
5.000e-06 9.000e-01 5.000e-06 5.000e-06 1.000e-03 3.000e-01 3.375e-20
4.000e-01 1.000e-04 5.000e-07 7.000e-01 5.000e-09 4.500e-01 3.150e-20
5.000e-02 5.000e-09 5.000e-06 2.000e-01 2.500e-01 5.000e-04 3.125e-20
8.000e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-07 5.000e-04 2.000e-01 5.000e-09 3.000e-20
8.000e-01 1.500e-01 5.000e-08 5.000e-08 1.000e-01 1.000e-03 3.000e-20
4.000e-01 3.000e-01 1.000e-07 1.000e-08 2.500e-01 1.000e-03 3.000e-20
6.500e-01 1.000e-09 5.000e-08 1.000e-02 2.500e-01 3.500e-01 2.844e-20
5.000e-09 5.000e-02 1.500e-01 5.000e-05 3.000e-01 5.000e-05 2.813e-20
5.000e-05 1.000e-06 1.500e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-07 5.000e-02 2.813e-20
1.000e-05 5.000e-07 7.500e-01 1.000e-06 1.000e-02 7.000e-01 2.625e-20
1.000e-09 9.990e-01 1.000e-03 5.000e-05 1.000e-01 5.000e-03 2.498e-20
1.000e-07 7.000e-01 7.000e-01 1.000e-07 1.000e-04 5.000e-02 2.450e-20
5.000e-06 1.000e-08 5.500e-01 5.000e-02 5.000e-05 3.500e-01 2.406e-20
5.000e-09 1.000e-04 3.000e-01 1.000e-06 7.500e-01 2.000e-01 2.250e-20
8.500e-01 5.000e-07 5.000e-08 4.000e-01 5.000e-01 5.000e-06 2.125e-20
3.000e-01 7.000e-01 5.000e-08 8.000e-01 5.000e-07 5.000e-06 2.100e-20
6.000e-01 1.000e-03 1.000e-04 1.000e-07 3.500e-01 1.000e-05 2.100e-20
Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 45
Probability of
Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”
1.500e-01 5.000e-09 5.000e-06 3.500e-01 3.000e-01 5.000e-05 1.969e-20
1.000e-08 1.000e-06 4.500e-01 8.500e-01 1.000e-03 5.000e-03 1.913e-20
4.500e-01 1.000e-08 2.000e-01 2.000e-01 1.000e-04 1.000e-06 1.800e-20
1.500e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-09 4.000e-01 1.000e-09 4.000e-01 1.800e-20
9.500e-01 1.000e-05 1.000e-02 3.500e-01 1.000e-07 5.000e-06 1.663e-20
5.000e-03 1.000e-02 1.000e-04 1.000e-07 6.500e-01 5.000e-05 1.625e-20
1.000e-09 4.000e-01 1.000e-07 2.000e-01 2.000e-01 1.000e-02 1.600e-20
5.000e-04 5.000e-04 5.000e-04 5.000e-04 5.000e-04 5.000e-04 1.563e-20
1.000e-04 1.000e-04 1.000e-02 3.000e-01 5.000e-07 1.000e-03 1.500e-20
3.000e-01 5.000e-06 9.900e-01 1.000e-07 1.000e-04 1.000e-03 1.485e-20
5.000e-01 1.000e-04 5.000e-08 8.000e-01 6.500e-01 1.000e-08 1.300e-20
5.500e-01 1.000e-09 9.000e-01 5.000e-07 9.900e-01 5.000e-05 1.225e-20
5.000e-01 5.000e-09 5.000e-07 1.000e-03 9.500e-01 1.000e-02 1.188e-20
5.500e-01 8.500e-01 1.000e-08 1.000e-03 5.000e-04 5.000e-06 1.169e-20
2.500e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-02 1.000e-06 1.000e-07 9.000e-01 1.125e-20
9.500e-01 5.000e-07 1.000e-09 5.000e-03 4.000e-01 1.000e-02 9.500e-21
9.500e-01 5.000e-02 5.000e-07 4.000e-01 1.000e-09 1.000e-03 9.500e-21
5.000e-05 6.000e-01 5.000e-05 5.000e-06 5.000e-06 2.500e-01 9.375e-21
5.000e-01 1.000e-06 5.000e-06 1.500e-01 1.000e-07 2.500e-01 9.375e-21
5.000e-01 5.000e-07 5.000e-05 1.000e-07 1.500e-01 5.000e-02 9.375e-21
5.000e-06 4.000e-01 1.000e-02 4.500e-01 1.000e-06 1.000e-06 9.000e-21
9.990e-01 5.000e-07 9.990e-01 5.000e-08 3.500e-01 1.000e-06 8.733e-21
1.000e-06 8.500e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e-06 1.000e-06 9.900e-01 8.415e-21
4.000e-01 1.000e-06 5.000e-08 8.000e-01 1.000e-01 5.000e-06 8.000e-21
5.000e-02 1.000e-04 7.500e-01 4.000e-01 1.000e-08 5.000e-07 7.500e-21
5.000e-05 1.000e-09 5.000e-07 4.500e-01 9.500e-01 7.000e-01 7.481e-21
1.000e-09 7.000e-01 4.500e-01 5.000e-05 5.000e-07 9.500e-01 7.481e-21
1.000e-03 5.000e-07 1.000e-02 3.000e-01 1.000e-08 4.500e-01 6.750e-21
Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 46
Probability of
Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”
4.000e-01 1.000e-09 1.000e-08 6.000e-01 5.500e-01 5.000e-03 6.600e-21
6.500e-01 1.000e-08 1.000e-06 4.000e-01 5.000e-01 5.000e-06 6.500e-21
9.990e-01 5.000e-02 5.000e-02 5.000e-06 5.000e-08 1.000e-05 6.244e-21
1.500e-01 5.000e-09 1.000e-08 3.000e-01 5.500e-01 5.000e-03 6.188e-21
4.000e-01 3.000e-01 1.000e-04 1.000e-07 5.000e-06 1.000e-03 6.000e-21
4.000e-01 9.990e-01 1.000e-04 5.000e-08 3.000e-01 1.000e-08 5.994e-21
2.000e-01 8.500e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-08 1.000e-07 7.000e-01 5.950e-21
5.000e-05 4.500e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-02 1.000e-04 5.000e-06 5.625e-21
7.500e-01 5.000e-09 1.000e-02 6.000e-01 5.000e-05 5.000e-06 5.625e-21
1.000e-07 3.000e-01 1.000e-08 7.500e-01 5.000e-01 5.000e-05 5.625e-21
5.000e-02 6.000e-01 5.000e-08 7.500e-01 5.000e-06 1.000e-06 5.625e-21
3.500e-01 1.000e-04 3.000e-01 5.000e-04 1.000e-09 1.000e-03 5.250e-21
1.000e-01 3.000e-01 1.000e-02 3.500e-01 1.000e-08 5.000e-09 5.250e-21
4.000e-01 1.000e-06 5.000e-05 3.500e-01 1.500e-01 5.000e-09 5.250e-21
1.500e-01 1.000e-09 1.500e-01 4.500e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-05 5.063e-21
5.000e-05 1.000e-05 1.000e-05 1.000e-03 1.000e-01 1.000e-02 5.000e-21
5.000e-06 5.000e-06 2.000e-01 1.000e-07 9.990e-01 1.000e-02 4.995e-21
5.000e-05 7.500e-01 5.000e-09 9.900e-01 5.000e-05 5.000e-04 4.641e-21
1.000e-09 1.000e-03 4.500e-01 5.000e-06 1.000e-02 2.000e-01 4.500e-21
5.000e-05 5.000e-02 5.000e-08 1.000e-03 7.000e-01 5.000e-05 4.375e-21
5.000e-06 1.000e-01 5.000e-05 1.000e-02 3.500e-01 5.000e-08 4.375e-21
5.000e-06 1.000e-09 8.500e-01 1.000e-03 1.000e-03 9.500e-01 4.038e-21
2.000e-01 5.000e-09 5.000e-05 1.000e-06 1.000e-01 8.000e-01 4.000e-21
1.000e-05 7.500e-01 1.000e-04 1.000e-06 1.000e-03 5.000e-03 3.750e-21
1.000e-04 1.000e-08 7.500e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-04 9.900e-01 3.713e-21
1.000e-09 4.500e-01 5.000e-05 7.000e-01 5.000e-07 4.500e-01 3.544e-21
5.000e-06 1.000e-01 1.000e-07 2.000e-01 5.000e-07 7.000e-01 3.500e-21
1.000e-07 9.990e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-07 7.000e-01 1.000e-02 3.497e-21
Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 47
Probability of
Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”
5.000e-09 1.000e-02 7.500e-01 5.000e-06 3.500e-01 5.000e-05 3.281e-21
1.000e-08 5.000e-07 6.500e-01 9.990e-01 2.000e-01 5.000e-06 3.247e-21
5.000e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-08 2.500e-01 1.000e-02 5.000e-06 3.125e-21
5.000e-08 1.000e-08 1.000e-03 3.500e-01 3.500e-01 5.000e-02 3.063e-21
1.000e-09 5.000e-02 1.000e-06 4.000e-01 3.000e-01 5.000e-04 3.000e-21
5.000e-03 1.000e-05 3.000e-01 1.000e-07 4.000e-01 5.000e-06 3.000e-21
1.000e-01 6.000e-01 5.000e-04 1.000e-07 1.000e-07 1.000e-02 3.000e-21
9.990e-01 5.000e-05 3.000e-01 1.000e-07 4.000e-01 5.000e-09 2.997e-21
1.000e-08 2.500e-01 1.000e-04 5.000e-07 4.500e-01 5.000e-02 2.813e-21
1.000e-09 4.500e-01 9.990e-01 5.000e-07 2.500e-01 5.000e-05 2.810e-21
5.000e-02 1.000e-09 1.000e-04 9.990e-01 5.000e-07 9.990e-01 2.495e-21
1.000e-09 5.000e-07 1.000e-02 5.000e-03 6.500e-01 1.500e-01 2.438e-21
8.000e-01 1.000e-05 1.000e-05 1.000e-03 3.000e-01 1.000e-07 2.400e-21
1.000e-07 1.000e-05 2.000e-01 6.000e-01 1.000e-07 2.000e-01 2.400e-21
7.500e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-05 1.000e-08 1.000e-07 4.000e-01 2.250e-21
9.000e-01 1.000e-01 5.000e-06 5.000e-07 1.000e-08 9.990e-01 2.248e-21
1.000e-04 1.000e-05 8.500e-01 5.000e-04 1.000e-03 5.000e-06 2.125e-21
4.500e-01 4.500e-01 4.000e-01 5.000e-06 1.000e-06 5.000e-09 2.025e-21
9.000e-01 4.500e-01 1.000e-07 5.000e-08 1.000e-05 1.000e-01 2.025e-21
5.000e-02 1.000e-07 1.000e-02 1.000e-05 8.000e-01 5.000e-06 2.000e-21
1.000e-01 4.000e-01 4.000e-01 5.000e-08 5.000e-07 5.000e-06 2.000e-21
9.500e-01 1.000e-08 5.000e-04 1.000e-06 8.000e-01 5.000e-04 1.900e-21
1.000e-04 7.000e-01 5.000e-07 1.000e-06 9.500e-01 5.000e-05 1.663e-21
8.000e-01 6.500e-01 5.000e-08 2.500e-01 5.000e-05 5.000e-09 1.625e-21
1.000e-02 1.000e-05 1.000e-05 3.000e-01 5.000e-08 1.000e-01 1.500e-21
1.000e-09 1.000e-05 1.000e-04 3.000e-01 9.990e-01 5.000e-03 1.499e-21
1.000e-06 5.000e-06 1.000e-02 6.000e-01 9.990e-01 5.000e-08 1.499e-21
9.500e-01 1.000e-05 3.000e-01 5.000e-08 1.000e-07 1.000e-01 1.425e-21
Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 48
Probability of
Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”
1.000e-04 4.000e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e-06 5.000e-09 7.000e-01 1.400e-21
1.000e-07 5.500e-01 1.000e-05 1.000e-01 5.000e-05 5.000e-04 1.375e-21
8.000e-01 5.000e-09 5.000e-06 1.000e-06 6.500e-01 1.000e-01 1.300e-21
1.000e-04 4.000e-01 1.000e-04 1.000e-07 6.500e-01 5.000e-06 1.300e-21
1.000e-01 1.000e-03 5.000e-04 5.000e-02 1.000e-06 5.000e-07 1.250e-21
1.000e-01 1.000e-08 5.000e-08 2.500e-01 9.500e-01 1.000e-04 1.188e-21
7.500e-01 1.000e-04 1.000e-08 3.000e-01 5.000e-05 1.000e-04 1.125e-21
1.000e-09 1.000e-03 5.000e-01 1.000e-06 4.500e-01 5.000e-03 1.125e-21
5.000e-09 6.000e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-01 5.000e-03 1.000e-09 1.125e-21
1.500e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-01 3.000e-01 1.000e-06 5.000e-09 1.125e-21
4.500e-01 6.000e-01 1.000e-09 1.000e-07 1.000e-04 4.000e-01 1.080e-21
1.000e-03 4.500e-01 5.000e-04 5.000e-08 9.500e-01 1.000e-07 1.069e-21
5.000e-05 1.500e-01 9.500e-01 1.500e-01 1.000e-07 1.000e-08 1.069e-21
1.000e-05 4.000e-01 5.000e-08 1.000e-06 1.000e-01 5.000e-02 1.000e-21
5.000e-09 6.000e-01 6.500e-01 1.000e-06 1.000e-01 5.000e-06 9.750e-22
5.000e-06 5.000e-07 7.500e-01 2.000e-01 5.000e-06 5.000e-04 9.375e-22
1.000e-05 4.000e-01 5.000e-08 5.000e-07 8.000e-01 1.000e-02 8.000e-22
4.000e-01 4.500e-01 5.000e-07 5.000e-09 3.500e-01 5.000e-06 7.875e-22
1.000e-02 5.000e-09 5.000e-04 6.500e-01 5.000e-08 9.500e-01 7.719e-22
5.000e-06 6.000e-01 6.000e-01 5.000e-08 1.000e-08 8.500e-01 7.650e-22
1.500e-01 5.000e-07 5.000e-06 9.000e-01 5.000e-09 4.500e-01 7.594e-22
1.500e-01 1.000e-09 1.500e-01 1.000e-06 6.500e-01 5.000e-05 7.313e-22
3.500e-01 4.500e-01 5.000e-08 3.500e-01 5.000e-08 5.000e-06 6.891e-22
4.000e-01 8.500e-01 1.000e-06 2.000e-01 1.000e-05 1.000e-09 6.800e-22
5.000e-05 5.000e-02 1.000e-04 5.000e-06 5.000e-03 1.000e-04 6.250e-22
5.000e-05 7.500e-01 5.000e-05 3.000e-01 1.000e-03 1.000e-09 5.625e-22
6.500e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-08 5.000e-07 6.500e-01 5.000e-03 5.281e-22
3.500e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-05 1.000e-06 2.000e-01 1.000e-09 5.250e-22
Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 49
Probability of
Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”
6.500e-01 1.000e-05 1.000e-02 8.000e-01 1.000e-07 1.000e-07 5.200e-22
1.000e-09 4.500e-01 3.000e-01 1.000e-07 7.500e-01 5.000e-05 5.063e-22
7.500e-01 5.000e-05 6.500e-01 2.000e-01 1.000e-09 1.000e-07 4.875e-22
8.500e-01 5.000e-05 5.000e-09 5.000e-09 6.500e-01 7.000e-01 4.834e-22
1.000e-01 5.000e-06 5.000e-09 5.000e-06 1.500e-01 2.500e-01 4.688e-22
6.500e-01 1.000e-09 7.000e-01 5.000e-08 4.000e-01 5.000e-05 4.550e-22
1.000e-09 1.000e-01 4.000e-01 5.000e-08 5.000e-04 4.500e-01 4.500e-22
4.500e-01 1.000e-09 1.000e-07 5.000e-05 6.500e-01 3.000e-01 4.388e-22
2.500e-01 1.000e-08 3.500e-01 5.000e-05 1.000e-03 1.000e-05 4.375e-22
5.000e-03 7.500e-01 4.500e-01 1.000e-08 5.000e-06 5.000e-06 4.219e-22
9.000e-01 5.000e-07 7.500e-01 5.000e-08 5.000e-03 5.000e-06 4.219e-22
8.000e-01 5.000e-06 9.990e-01 1.000e-08 1.000e-06 1.000e-02 3.996e-22
1.000e-01 9.990e-01 5.000e-08 1.000e-08 1.000e-05 7.500e-01 3.746e-22
1.000e-09 3.500e-01 1.000e-03 3.000e-01 3.500e-01 1.000e-08 3.675e-22
8.000e-01 5.000e-09 1.000e-05 1.000e-03 1.000e-05 8.500e-01 3.400e-22
4.500e-01 1.000e-03 1.000e-08 7.500e-01 1.000e-03 1.000e-07 3.375e-22
8.500e-01 9.990e-01 5.000e-07 1.000e-07 1.000e-08 7.500e-01 3.184e-22
8.500e-01 1.500e-01 5.000e-06 9.990e-01 1.000e-08 5.000e-08 3.184e-22
6.000e-01 1.000e-06 9.990e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e-09 5.000e-05 2.997e-22
2.500e-01 8.500e-01 5.000e-07 5.000e-06 1.000e-05 5.000e-05 2.656e-22
2.000e-01 1.000e-02 5.000e-05 5.000e-08 1.000e-01 5.000e-07 2.500e-22
5.000e-06 1.000e-08 1.000e-02 1.000e-04 9.900e-01 5.000e-03 2.475e-22
8.500e-01 5.000e-09 7.500e-01 1.000e-06 7.500e-01 1.000e-07 2.391e-22
9.990e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-09 6.000e-01 5.000e-08 1.500e-01 2.248e-22
5.000e-05 5.000e-09 1.000e-02 1.000e-06 1.000e-01 8.500e-01 2.125e-22
5.500e-01 1.000e-06 9.500e-01 1.000e-09 8.000e-01 5.000e-07 2.090e-22
1.000e-01 4.000e-01 5.000e-08 9.900e-01 1.000e-06 1.000e-07 1.980e-22
1.000e-08 7.500e-01 1.000e-08 7.500e-01 1.000e-05 3.500e-01 1.969e-22
Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 50
Probability of
Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”
9.500e-01 5.000e-09 4.000e-01 5.000e-08 4.000e-01 5.000e-06 1.900e-22
1.000e-05 5.000e-04 1.500e-01 5.000e-06 1.000e-03 5.000e-05 1.875e-22
1.500e-01 9.000e-01 5.000e-08 5.000e-08 1.000e-06 5.500e-01 1.856e-22
5.500e-01 1.000e-09 5.000e-05 8.500e-01 5.000e-08 1.500e-01 1.753e-22
1.500e-01 1.000e-05 4.500e-01 1.000e-08 5.000e-01 5.000e-08 1.688e-22
1.000e-06 5.000e-09 8.500e-01 5.000e-05 7.500e-01 1.000e-03 1.594e-22
4.000e-01 5.000e-07 1.500e-01 1.000e-06 5.000e-04 1.000e-05 1.500e-22
5.000e-05 4.000e-01 7.500e-01 4.000e-01 5.000e-09 5.000e-09 1.500e-22
1.000e-08 3.500e-01 8.500e-01 1.000e-06 1.000e-03 5.000e-05 1.488e-22
1.000e-03 5.500e-01 5.000e-08 1.000e-03 5.000e-03 1.000e-06 1.375e-22
1.000e-05 1.000e-01 5.000e-02 5.000e-09 5.000e-06 1.000e-01 1.250e-22
3.500e-01 5.000e-06 1.000e-09 5.000e-07 1.500e-01 9.500e-01 1.247e-22
1.000e-09 1.000e-03 5.000e-08 4.000e-01 5.500e-01 1.000e-02 1.100e-22
5.000e-09 1.500e-01 6.500e-01 5.000e-08 1.000e-05 4.500e-01 1.097e-22
5.000e-05 5.000e-06 1.000e-02 1.000e-08 5.000e-03 8.500e-01 1.063e-22
1.000e-04 5.000e-07 5.000e-03 6.000e-01 1.000e-09 7.000e-01 1.050e-22
5.000e-09 5.000e-06 4.000e-01 1.000e-06 9.900e-01 1.000e-02 9.900e-23
5.000e-06 5.000e-06 1.000e-05 1.500e-01 5.000e-01 5.000e-06 9.375e-23
5.000e-06 1.000e-03 7.000e-01 5.000e-05 1.000e-05 5.000e-05 8.750e-23
9.990e-01 3.500e-01 5.000e-07 5.000e-08 1.000e-06 1.000e-02 8.741e-23
9.500e-01 1.000e-05 1.000e-07 1.000e-01 1.000e-09 8.500e-01 8.075e-23
8.500e-01 5.000e-09 1.000e-03 7.500e-01 5.000e-06 5.000e-06 7.969e-23
5.000e-06 7.500e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-08 5.000e-05 8.500e-01 7.969e-23
3.000e-01 1.000e-06 1.000e-02 5.000e-06 1.000e-05 5.000e-04 7.500e-23
1.000e-01 5.000e-07 5.000e-07 3.000e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e-06 7.500e-23
1.000e-07 1.000e-05 7.000e-01 3.000e-01 3.500e-01 1.000e-09 7.350e-23
1.000e-09 8.500e-01 8.500e-01 5.000e-07 2.000e-01 1.000e-06 7.225e-23
5.000e-08 1.000e-09 9.990e-01 6.000e-01 4.000e-01 5.000e-06 5.994e-23
Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 51
Probability of
Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”
1.000e-05 1.000e-09 1.000e-02 2.500e-01 5.000e-06 4.500e-01 5.625e-23
1.000e-07 1.000e-01 1.500e-01 5.000e-07 5.000e-07 1.500e-01 5.625e-23
8.000e-01 1.000e-06 1.000e-05 1.000e-06 1.000e-05 7.000e-01 5.600e-23
9.500e-01 1.000e-09 5.000e-05 5.000e-05 4.500e-01 5.000e-05 5.344e-23
5.000e-01 1.000e-08 5.000e-08 3.000e-01 1.000e-06 7.000e-01 5.250e-23
1.000e-03 1.000e-09 1.000e-09 8.000e-01 6.500e-01 1.000e-01 5.200e-23
1.000e-02 1.000e-03 1.000e-05 1.000e-06 1.000e-01 5.000e-06 5.000e-23
4.000e-01 1.000e-03 1.000e-08 5.000e-05 1.000e-06 2.500e-01 5.000e-23
5.000e-05 5.000e-05 5.000e-03 5.000e-08 8.000e-01 1.000e-04 5.000e-23
5.000e-06 5.000e-09 5.000e-06 1.000e-03 4.500e-01 8.500e-01 4.781e-23
1.000e-04 4.500e-01 5.000e-08 1.000e-05 1.000e-05 2.000e-01 4.500e-23
1.000e-09 1.000e-02 9.990e-01 5.000e-06 1.000e-06 8.500e-01 4.246e-23
5.000e-05 1.000e-05 6.000e-01 5.500e-01 5.000e-09 5.000e-05 4.125e-23
5.500e-01 1.000e-03 5.000e-08 5.000e-08 6.000e-01 5.000e-05 4.125e-23
8.000e-01 1.000e-03 1.000e-08 1.000e-03 5.000e-01 1.000e-08 4.000e-23
5.000e-08 4.500e-01 5.000e-06 1.000e-07 3.500e-01 1.000e-02 3.938e-23
3.000e-01 1.000e-08 1.000e-05 5.000e-09 4.500e-01 5.500e-01 3.713e-23
1.000e-05 1.000e-09 5.000e-05 1.000e-04 9.500e-01 7.500e-01 3.563e-23
5.000e-08 5.000e-06 8.000e-01 3.500e-01 5.000e-03 1.000e-07 3.500e-23
9.990e-01 1.000e-01 1.000e-08 5.000e-08 1.000e-06 7.000e-01 3.497e-23
5.000e-06 1.000e-08 1.000e-08 2.000e-01 4.500e-01 7.500e-01 3.375e-23
5.000e-06 1.000e-04 5.000e-03 5.000e-02 5.000e-07 5.000e-04 3.125e-23
5.000e-02 4.000e-01 1.000e-07 6.000e-01 5.000e-07 5.000e-08 3.000e-23
1.000e-09 5.000e-09 5.000e-01 2.500e-01 5.000e-05 9.500e-01 2.969e-23
1.000e-09 9.000e-01 5.000e-07 9.900e-01 1.000e-07 6.500e-01 2.896e-23
9.000e-01 2.500e-01 5.000e-08 5.000e-07 5.000e-07 1.000e-02 2.813e-23
1.000e-07 7.500e-01 5.000e-05 1.500e-01 5.000e-05 1.000e-06 2.813e-23
1.500e-01 4.000e-01 1.000e-08 1.000e-06 4.500e-01 1.000e-07 2.700e-23
Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 52
Probability of
Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”
4.000e-01 5.000e-09 5.000e-08 6.000e-01 1.000e-06 4.500e-01 2.700e-23
4.000e-01 1.000e-08 5.000e-02 5.000e-08 5.000e-01 5.000e-06 2.500e-23
4.000e-01 1.000e-08 2.500e-01 5.000e-02 5.000e-04 1.000e-09 2.500e-23
1.000e-07 5.000e-09 1.500e-01 5.000e-07 8.500e-01 7.500e-01 2.391e-23
1.000e-07 5.000e-09 4.000e-01 5.000e-07 9.500e-01 2.500e-01 2.375e-23
9.990e-01 5.000e-05 5.000e-07 1.000e-07 9.500e-01 1.000e-05 2.373e-23
5.000e-09 2.500e-01 7.500e-01 5.000e-08 5.000e-06 1.000e-01 2.344e-23
9.500e-01 1.000e-08 1.000e-05 5.000e-07 9.500e-01 5.000e-04 2.256e-23
4.500e-01 5.000e-09 1.000e-06 1.000e-03 2.000e-01 5.000e-05 2.250e-23
5.000e-06 1.000e-04 1.000e-08 1.000e-03 4.500e-01 1.000e-02 2.250e-23
5.000e-06 1.000e-05 7.000e-01 2.500e-01 5.000e-05 5.000e-08 2.188e-23
1.000e-02 5.000e-06 5.000e-09 1.000e-07 9.990e-01 8.500e-01 2.123e-23
5.000e-06 5.000e-09 1.000e-08 2.500e-01 4.500e-01 7.000e-01 1.969e-23
1.000e-09 5.000e-07 2.500e-01 4.000e-01 1.000e-06 3.500e-01 1.750e-23
1.000e-06 5.000e-09 9.500e-01 1.000e-06 1.000e-02 3.500e-01 1.663e-23
1.000e-01 1.000e-08 1.000e-05 5.000e-07 6.500e-01 5.000e-03 1.625e-23
1.000e-05 5.000e-07 9.990e-01 5.000e-06 6.500e-01 1.000e-06 1.623e-23
1.000e-09 5.000e-07 6.500e-01 5.000e-08 9.900e-01 9.900e-01 1.593e-23
4.000e-01 1.000e-07 5.000e-09 3.500e-01 5.000e-07 4.500e-01 1.575e-23
3.500e-01 1.000e-09 1.000e-05 1.000e-01 4.500e-01 1.000e-07 1.575e-23
2.000e-01 1.000e-06 5.000e-08 3.500e-01 4.500e-01 1.000e-08 1.575e-23
1.000e-08 2.000e-01 5.000e-05 1.000e-03 1.500e-01 1.000e-06 1.500e-23
1.000e-04 1.000e-09 2.500e-01 1.500e-01 8.000e-01 5.000e-09 1.500e-23
1.000e-02 5.000e-08 1.000e-02 6.000e-01 5.000e-07 1.000e-05 1.500e-23
1.000e-07 7.500e-01 1.000e-02 5.000e-06 7.500e-01 5.000e-09 1.406e-23
1.000e-01 1.000e-05 1.000e-09 4.000e-01 1.000e-07 3.500e-01 1.400e-23
1.000e-05 1.000e-09 1.000e-08 3.500e-01 5.000e-01 7.500e-01 1.313e-23
1.000e-05 3.000e-01 8.000e-01 5.000e-06 1.000e-05 1.000e-07 1.200e-23
Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 53
Probability of
Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”
1.000e-04 1.000e-05 5.000e-02 1.000e-09 4.500e-01 5.000e-04 1.125e-23
4.000e-01 5.000e-09 5.000e-07 5.000e-08 7.500e-01 3.000e-01 1.125e-23
5.500e-01 5.000e-09 5.000e-08 1.000e-05 8.000e-01 1.000e-02 1.100e-23
5.500e-01 5.000e-09 8.000e-01 5.000e-08 1.000e-06 1.000e-01 1.100e-23
5.000e-05 5.000e-06 1.000e-05 5.000e-06 1.000e-03 8.500e-01 1.063e-23
1.000e-09 1.000e-04 3.000e-01 3.500e-01 1.000e-05 1.000e-04 1.050e-23
1.000e-04 1.000e-05 7.500e-01 5.000e-08 5.500e-01 5.000e-07 1.031e-23
5.000e-06 5.000e-02 6.000e-01 5.000e-08 1.000e-03 1.000e-06 7.500e-24
1.000e-09 5.000e-08 5.000e-06 3.000e-01 6.500e-01 1.500e-01 7.313e-24
1.000e-05 7.500e-01 5.000e-07 1.000e-03 3.500e-01 5.000e-09 6.563e-24
1.000e-09 1.000e-05 5.000e-07 2.000e-01 6.500e-01 1.000e-02 6.500e-24
1.000e-04 5.000e-09 9.990e-01 5.000e-07 5.000e-01 5.000e-05 6.244e-24
3.500e-01 5.000e-09 7.000e-01 5.000e-08 1.000e-06 1.000e-01 6.125e-24
1.000e-07 5.000e-07 2.500e-01 5.000e-02 9.500e-01 1.000e-08 5.938e-24
3.000e-01 1.000e-08 5.000e-05 1.000e-05 7.500e-01 5.000e-06 5.625e-24
9.990e-01 1.000e-09 7.500e-01 1.500e-01 5.000e-06 1.000e-08 5.619e-24
5.000e-06 1.000e-08 1.000e-02 2.000e-01 5.500e-01 1.000e-07 5.500e-24
5.000e-07 8.500e-01 5.000e-03 5.000e-06 1.000e-07 5.000e-03 5.313e-24
4.000e-01 3.500e-01 1.000e-08 1.000e-08 5.000e-07 7.500e-01 5.250e-24
1.000e-04 5.000e-07 5.000e-07 5.000e-07 7.500e-01 5.500e-01 5.156e-24
9.990e-01 1.000e-05 1.000e-05 1.000e-07 1.000e-03 5.000e-04 4.995e-24
1.000e-09 1.000e-05 4.500e-01 3.000e-01 3.500e-01 1.000e-08 4.725e-24
3.500e-01 1.000e-07 2.000e-01 1.000e-07 1.000e-08 6.500e-01 4.550e-24
5.000e-05 5.000e-09 8.000e-01 5.000e-09 5.000e-03 8.500e-01 4.250e-24
9.000e-01 5.000e-05 5.000e-08 1.000e-07 3.500e-01 5.000e-05 3.938e-24
9.500e-01 1.000e-09 5.000e-08 1.000e-06 8.000e-01 1.000e-01 3.800e-24
9.500e-01 5.000e-07 4.000e-01 2.000e-01 1.000e-09 1.000e-07 3.800e-24
1.000e-08 5.000e-05 3.000e-01 5.000e-06 5.000e-01 1.000e-05 3.750e-24
Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 54
Probability of
Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”
2.500e-01 1.000e-04 1.000e-07 1.000e-07 3.000e-01 5.000e-05 3.750e-24
6.500e-01 1.000e-09 2.000e-01 5.000e-08 5.000e-05 1.000e-02 3.250e-24
5.000e-05 1.000e-04 1.000e-09 9.990e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-02 2.498e-24
4.000e-01 1.000e-05 1.000e-02 1.000e-03 5.000e-05 1.000e-09 2.000e-24
5.000e-05 1.000e-09 4.000e-01 9.900e-01 1.000e-04 1.000e-06 1.980e-24
9.500e-01 5.000e-06 5.000e-08 1.000e-04 1.000e-07 8.000e-01 1.900e-24
1.000e-07 5.000e-02 5.000e-08 5.000e-08 9.500e-01 1.500e-01 1.781e-24
3.500e-01 1.000e-09 1.000e-06 5.000e-02 1.000e-01 1.000e-06 1.750e-24
9.500e-01 5.000e-09 5.000e-09 5.000e-07 4.000e-01 3.500e-01 1.663e-24
5.000e-02 6.500e-01 5.000e-07 1.000e-06 1.000e-06 1.000e-04 1.625e-24
1.000e-04 1.000e-09 5.000e-06 3.000e-01 1.000e-03 1.000e-02 1.500e-24
1.000e-02 9.990e-01 5.000e-04 5.000e-07 1.000e-05 5.000e-08 1.249e-24
1.000e-07 7.500e-01 1.000e-02 1.500e-01 1.000e-09 1.000e-05 1.125e-24
9.500e-01 9.000e-01 5.000e-08 1.000e-05 5.000e-07 5.000e-06 1.069e-24
8.500e-01 5.000e-07 1.000e-05 1.000e-07 5.000e-04 5.000e-03 1.063e-24
1.000e-04 1.000e-04 1.000e-04 1.000e-04 1.000e-04 1.000e-04 1.000e-24
4.000e-01 1.000e-09 5.000e-08 1.000e-06 5.000e-02 9.500e-01 9.500e-25
1.000e-08 5.000e-09 1.000e-03 5.000e-03 7.500e-01 5.000e-03 9.375e-25
5.000e-06 1.000e-05 1.000e-08 1.000e-05 4.000e-01 4.500e-01 9.000e-25
2.000e-01 5.000e-09 1.000e-02 1.000e-04 1.000e-09 8.500e-01 8.500e-25
5.000e-05 5.000e-06 1.000e-08 5.000e-07 9.500e-01 6.500e-01 7.719e-25
1.000e-03 1.000e-05 5.000e-06 5.000e-06 5.000e-03 5.000e-04 6.250e-25
1.000e-05 9.990e-01 5.000e-09 1.000e-08 1.000e-03 9.900e-01 4.945e-25
1.000e-09 5.000e-09 6.500e-01 5.000e-07 4.000e-01 7.500e-01 4.875e-25
5.000e-03 5.000e-09 2.500e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-04 1.000e-09 4.688e-25
5.000e-03 9.000e-01 1.000e-07 1.000e-06 1.000e-01 1.000e-08 4.500e-25
1.000e-08 5.000e-02 1.500e-01 5.000e-08 1.000e-03 1.000e-04 3.750e-25
8.500e-01 3.500e-01 1.000e-02 5.000e-08 5.000e-09 5.000e-07 3.719e-25
Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 55
Probability of
Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”
1.000e-07 5.000e-09 7.500e-01 1.000e-07 9.500e-01 1.000e-02 3.563e-25
3.500e-01 1.000e-05 1.000e-09 3.500e-01 5.000e-07 5.000e-04 3.063e-25
5.000e-05 5.000e-09 2.500e-01 5.000e-07 1.000e-05 9.500e-01 2.969e-25
1.000e-03 1.000e-08 6.500e-01 1.000e-07 5.000e-07 8.500e-01 2.763e-25
1.000e-01 1.000e-09 5.000e-05 1.000e-05 5.000e-04 1.000e-02 2.500e-25
9.500e-01 1.000e-03 1.000e-06 5.000e-08 5.000e-03 1.000e-06 2.375e-25
1.000e-04 1.000e-06 5.000e-05 5.000e-08 9.500e-01 1.000e-03 2.375e-25
3.500e-01 1.000e-05 6.500e-01 1.000e-07 1.000e-06 1.000e-06 2.275e-25
3.000e-01 1.000e-04 5.000e-08 3.000e-01 1.000e-07 5.000e-06 2.250e-25
1.000e-09 3.000e-01 1.500e-01 1.000e-08 5.000e-05 1.000e-02 2.250e-25
1.000e-04 1.000e-07 8.500e-01 5.000e-08 1.000e-04 5.000e-03 2.125e-25
5.000e-06 1.000e-09 5.000e-09 9.900e-01 8.500e-01 1.000e-02 2.104e-25
5.000e-07 1.000e-03 1.000e-08 5.000e-05 8.000e-01 1.000e-03 2.000e-25
1.000e-02 1.000e-08 1.000e-08 6.000e-01 5.000e-07 6.500e-01 1.950e-25
5.000e-03 5.000e-08 1.000e-03 5.000e-05 1.500e-01 1.000e-07 1.875e-25
1.000e-09 1.000e-01 1.000e-07 3.500e-01 1.000e-06 5.000e-02 1.750e-25
5.000e-07 4.000e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e-07 6.500e-01 1.000e-09 1.300e-25
1.000e-09 5.000e-09 2.000e-01 5.000e-05 5.000e-01 5.000e-03 1.250e-25
5.000e-06 5.000e-09 3.000e-01 5.000e-07 6.500e-01 5.000e-05 1.219e-25
5.000e-09 8.500e-01 5.000e-02 5.000e-02 1.000e-06 1.000e-08 1.063e-25
5.000e-01 1.000e-09 8.000e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-07 5.000e-05 1.000e-25
1.500e-01 1.000e-08 1.000e-09 6.500e-01 9.500e-01 1.000e-07 9.263e-26
5.000e-06 1.000e-08 5.000e-06 2.000e-01 3.500e-01 5.000e-06 8.750e-26
1.000e-08 5.000e-07 1.000e-02 3.500e-01 9.900e-01 5.000e-09 8.663e-26
1.000e-08 1.000e-01 1.000e-08 1.000e-01 5.000e-07 1.500e-01 7.500e-26
1.000e-06 1.000e-06 6.500e-01 1.000e-01 1.000e-08 1.000e-04 6.500e-26
1.000e-07 5.000e-04 5.000e-03 1.000e-01 5.000e-05 5.000e-08 6.250e-26
1.000e-09 4.000e-01 1.000e-07 3.000e-01 1.000e-01 5.000e-08 6.000e-26
Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 56
Probability of
Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”
9.990e-01 1.000e-04 1.000e-05 1.000e-03 5.000e-07 1.000e-07 4.995e-26
5.000e-05 5.000e-05 5.000e-08 5.000e-05 1.000e-05 7.500e-01 4.688e-26
8.000e-01 1.000e-09 1.000e-02 5.000e-08 1.000e-01 1.000e-06 4.000e-26
1.000e-09 5.000e-03 5.000e-08 4.000e-01 7.500e-01 5.000e-07 3.750e-26
5.000e-02 5.000e-07 3.000e-01 1.000e-06 5.000e-06 1.000e-06 3.750e-26
5.000e-06 5.000e-06 1.000e-08 5.000e-07 3.500e-01 8.500e-01 3.719e-26
3.500e-01 5.000e-07 5.000e-07 1.000e-07 5.000e-06 8.500e-01 3.719e-26
5.000e-05 1.000e-03 4.000e-01 3.500e-01 1.000e-09 5.000e-09 3.500e-26
5.500e-01 5.000e-05 1.000e-05 5.000e-06 5.000e-07 5.000e-05 3.438e-26
1.000e-01 6.500e-01 1.000e-04 5.000e-08 1.000e-07 1.000e-06 3.250e-26
3.000e-01 8.000e-01 1.000e-08 5.000e-06 5.000e-07 5.000e-06 3.000e-26
1.000e-01 5.000e-09 3.000e-01 1.000e-07 5.000e-09 4.000e-01 3.000e-26
1.000e-09 7.500e-01 7.500e-01 5.000e-08 1.000e-09 9.990e-01 2.810e-26
1.000e-09 5.000e-02 1.000e-09 3.500e-01 1.000e-05 1.500e-01 2.625e-26
1.000e-08 5.000e-06 1.000e-02 1.000e-06 1.000e-03 5.000e-02 2.500e-26
5.000e-02 1.000e-03 1.000e-07 1.000e-07 5.000e-07 1.000e-01 2.500e-26
5.000e-03 1.000e-03 1.000e-03 5.000e-08 1.000e-07 1.000e-03 2.500e-26
9.500e-01 5.000e-06 5.000e-07 2.000e-01 5.000e-07 1.000e-07 2.375e-26
1.000e-08 1.000e-09 1.000e-03 7.500e-01 5.500e-01 5.000e-06 2.063e-26
8.000e-01 1.000e-09 1.000e-02 5.000e-06 5.000e-07 1.000e-03 2.000e-26
1.000e-04 1.000e-04 8.000e-01 5.000e-03 5.000e-08 1.000e-08 2.000e-26
1.000e-05 5.000e-09 3.000e-01 5.000e-06 5.000e-06 5.000e-02 1.875e-26
1.500e-01 5.000e-07 1.000e-05 1.000e-03 5.000e-06 5.000e-06 1.875e-26
5.000e-09 1.000e-04 5.000e-03 1.000e-06 1.500e-01 5.000e-05 1.875e-26
5.000e-05 5.000e-05 5.000e-05 5.000e-05 5.000e-05 5.000e-05 1.563e-26
3.000e-01 1.000e-04 1.000e-08 9.000e-01 5.000e-06 1.000e-08 1.350e-26
1.000e-07 6.000e-01 8.500e-01 5.000e-05 1.000e-07 5.000e-08 1.275e-26
1.000e-03 5.000e-05 1.000e-02 5.000e-04 5.000e-07 1.000e-07 1.250e-26
Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 57
Probability of
Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”
1.000e-04 2.500e-01 1.000e-08 9.900e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-09 1.238e-26
1.000e-09 1.000e-08 6.500e-01 5.000e-03 5.000e-07 7.000e-01 1.138e-26
5.000e-06 3.000e-01 1.000e-06 5.000e-06 1.000e-08 1.500e-01 1.125e-26
1.000e-04 1.000e-09 1.500e-01 1.000e-09 5.000e-03 1.500e-01 1.125e-26
1.000e-09 5.000e-07 5.000e-07 5.000e-05 9.500e-01 8.500e-01 1.009e-26
1.000e-09 8.500e-01 5.000e-07 5.000e-06 4.500e-01 1.000e-05 9.563e-27
9.500e-01 4.000e-01 1.000e-03 1.000e-08 5.000e-07 5.000e-09 9.500e-27
5.000e-01 1.000e-06 5.000e-06 7.500e-01 1.000e-06 5.000e-09 9.375e-27
5.000e-05 7.500e-01 9.500e-01 5.000e-06 1.000e-09 5.000e-08 8.906e-27
5.000e-06 5.000e-09 1.000e-07 3.500e-01 1.000e-01 1.000e-04 8.750e-27
5.000e-05 1.000e-04 5.000e-09 6.000e-01 4.000e-01 1.000e-09 6.000e-27
5.000e-05 4.500e-01 5.000e-05 1.000e-07 5.000e-07 1.000e-04 5.625e-27
5.000e-05 1.000e-08 4.000e-01 5.000e-08 5.500e-01 1.000e-06 5.500e-27
1.000e-08 5.000e-07 6.000e-01 5.000e-07 1.000e-05 3.500e-01 5.250e-27
1.000e-08 5.000e-06 4.000e-01 1.000e-07 5.000e-01 5.000e-06 5.000e-27
1.000e-03 5.000e-06 1.000e-04 9.900e-01 1.000e-06 1.000e-08 4.950e-27
5.000e-06 9.000e-01 5.000e-08 1.000e-06 2.000e-01 1.000e-07 4.500e-27
3.500e-01 1.000e-04 5.000e-07 5.000e-03 1.000e-09 5.000e-05 4.375e-27
5.000e-03 5.000e-05 5.000e-07 1.000e-06 1.000e-07 3.500e-01 4.375e-27
5.500e-01 1.000e-09 3.000e-01 5.000e-08 5.000e-08 1.000e-02 4.125e-27
1.000e-09 1.000e-01 4.000e-01 1.000e-07 1.000e-02 1.000e-07 4.000e-27
1.000e-01 5.000e-09 3.000e-01 5.000e-06 5.000e-03 1.000e-09 3.750e-27
5.000e-09 4.000e-01 1.000e-06 5.000e-06 6.500e-01 5.000e-07 3.250e-27
1.000e-01 1.000e-09 4.000e-01 5.000e-08 1.000e-08 1.500e-01 3.000e-27
9.500e-01 1.000e-05 1.000e-09 5.000e-08 5.500e-01 1.000e-05 2.613e-27
9.990e-01 5.000e-09 5.000e-08 5.000e-05 4.000e-01 5.000e-07 2.498e-27
1.000e-09 9.990e-01 5.000e-02 1.000e-03 5.000e-07 1.000e-07 2.498e-27
1.000e-07 1.000e-02 1.000e-06 5.000e-06 1.000e-06 4.500e-01 2.250e-27
Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 58
Probability of
Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”
1.000e-06 1.000e-08 1.000e-04 3.000e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-08 2.250e-27
1.500e-01 1.000e-06 1.000e-03 1.500e-01 1.000e-08 1.000e-08 2.250e-27
1.000e-07 4.500e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e-03 5.000e-09 1.000e-06 2.250e-27
1.000e-09 1.000e-08 8.500e-01 1.000e-03 5.000e-06 5.000e-02 2.125e-27
5.000e-06 8.500e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-09 9.900e-01 1.000e-08 2.104e-27
5.000e-05 5.500e-01 3.000e-01 5.000e-09 1.000e-06 5.000e-08 2.063e-27
9.990e-01 1.000e-09 1.000e-09 5.000e-05 6.500e-01 5.000e-05 1.623e-27
5.500e-01 5.000e-05 1.000e-08 1.000e-03 5.000e-04 1.000e-08 1.375e-27
4.000e-01 5.000e-05 5.000e-06 5.000e-07 5.000e-03 5.000e-09 1.250e-27
1.500e-01 1.000e-04 5.000e-07 1.000e-07 3.000e-01 5.000e-09 1.125e-27
5.000e-06 1.000e-04 7.500e-01 5.000e-08 1.000e-03 5.000e-08 9.375e-28
1.000e-04 1.000e-03 1.000e-05 1.500e-01 1.000e-09 5.000e-06 7.500e-28
1.000e-09 4.000e-01 7.500e-01 5.000e-07 5.000e-07 1.000e-05 7.500e-28
1.000e-04 1.000e-09 2.000e-01 1.000e-05 1.000e-08 3.500e-01 7.000e-28
1.000e-09 5.000e-08 1.000e-06 5.000e-05 4.000e-01 6.500e-01 6.500e-28
8.500e-01 1.000e-08 5.000e-08 5.000e-08 5.000e-01 5.000e-05 5.313e-28
1.000e-04 1.000e-06 1.000e-09 5.000e-06 1.000e-01 1.000e-02 5.000e-28
1.000e-09 1.000e-09 2.000e-01 1.000e-03 5.000e-03 5.000e-04 5.000e-28
5.000e-06 1.000e-06 1.000e-08 8.000e-01 1.000e-06 1.000e-02 4.000e-28
1.000e-09 1.000e-01 5.000e-08 3.000e-01 5.000e-07 5.000e-04 3.750e-28
9.990e-01 5.000e-09 5.000e-06 5.000e-04 5.000e-07 5.000e-05 3.122e-28
1.000e-09 8.500e-01 1.000e-05 1.000e-06 5.000e-08 6.500e-01 2.763e-28
1.000e-09 9.990e-01 1.000e-08 1.000e-02 5.500e-01 5.000e-09 2.747e-28
1.000e-04 1.000e-03 5.000e-06 5.000e-06 1.000e-06 1.000e-04 2.500e-28
1.000e-09 1.000e-04 1.000e-02 1.000e-08 5.000e-03 5.000e-03 2.500e-28
1.000e-01 2.000e-01 1.000e-08 1.000e-08 1.000e-01 1.000e-09 2.000e-28
4.000e-01 1.000e-03 5.000e-08 5.000e-08 1.000e-09 2.000e-01 2.000e-28
4.000e-01 1.000e-09 1.000e-07 5.000e-08 9.500e-01 1.000e-04 1.900e-28
Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 59
Probability of
Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”
1.000e-04 5.000e-09 6.500e-01 1.000e-07 5.000e-01 1.000e-08 1.625e-28
5.000e-05 1.000e-06 1.000e-08 5.500e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-05 1.375e-28
9.500e-01 1.000e-01 5.000e-05 5.000e-09 1.000e-09 5.000e-06 1.188e-28
3.000e-01 1.000e-08 6.500e-01 1.000e-07 5.000e-09 1.000e-04 9.750e-29
1.000e-07 1.000e-08 2.500e-01 1.500e-01 5.000e-05 5.000e-08 9.375e-29
3.500e-01 5.000e-07 5.000e-07 1.000e-07 1.000e-05 1.000e-03 8.750e-29
5.000e-09 7.000e-01 1.000e-08 5.000e-07 9.500e-01 5.000e-06 8.313e-29
1.000e-06 1.000e-09 1.500e-01 1.000e-08 9.500e-01 5.000e-05 7.125e-29
1.000e-02 1.000e-03 1.000e-09 1.000e-03 5.000e-07 1.000e-05 5.000e-29
1.000e-08 1.000e-05 9.990e-01 5.000e-08 1.000e-05 1.000e-03 4.995e-29
1.000e-09 1.500e-01 1.000e-08 1.000e-07 2.000e-01 1.000e-03 3.000e-29
1.000e-09 1.000e-08 5.000e-01 5.000e-05 9.900e-01 1.000e-07 2.475e-29
5.000e-08 1.000e-08 1.000e-08 7.500e-01 9.900e-01 5.000e-06 1.856e-29
1.000e-01 1.000e-08 1.000e-07 3.500e-01 5.000e-05 1.000e-08 1.750e-29
5.000e-09 5.000e-09 1.000e-04 1.000e-06 1.000e-02 6.500e-01 1.625e-29
1.000e-09 1.500e-01 5.000e-08 5.000e-08 7.000e-01 5.000e-05 1.313e-29
5.000e-03 5.000e-09 1.500e-01 5.000e-06 5.000e-06 1.000e-07 9.375e-30
3.500e-01 5.000e-09 1.000e-02 1.000e-06 1.000e-06 5.000e-07 8.750e-30
1.000e-05 1.000e-09 4.500e-01 7.500e-01 5.000e-07 5.000e-09 8.438e-30
5.000e-05 5.000e-09 6.000e-01 1.000e-02 5.000e-07 1.000e-08 7.500e-30
1.000e-03 5.000e-07 5.000e-07 5.000e-05 1.000e-05 5.000e-05 6.250e-30
1.000e-05 1.000e-05 5.000e-08 5.000e-07 5.000e-01 5.000e-06 6.250e-30
5.000e-05 1.000e-06 5.000e-08 5.000e-08 5.000e-03 1.000e-02 6.250e-30
5.000e-06 1.000e-08 1.000e-08 1.000e-07 3.500e-01 3.500e-01 6.125e-30
5.000e-09 1.000e-08 1.000e-07 1.500e-01 6.500e-01 1.000e-05 4.875e-30
4.500e-01 1.000e-04 1.000e-08 1.000e-08 1.000e-07 1.000e-02 4.500e-30
1.000e-03 5.000e-05 1.000e-08 5.000e-08 5.000e-07 3.500e-01 4.375e-30
5.000e-05 3.000e-01 5.000e-08 1.000e-06 1.000e-06 5.000e-06 3.750e-30
Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 60
Probability of
Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”
5.000e-09 1.000e-03 1.500e-01 1.000e-03 1.000e-07 5.000e-08 3.750e-30
5.000e-05 1.000e-06 7.500e-01 1.000e-06 1.000e-06 1.000e-07 3.750e-30
5.000e-06 5.000e-02 1.000e-09 5.000e-02 5.000e-08 5.000e-06 3.125e-30
5.000e-09 2.500e-01 1.000e-06 1.000e-07 4.000e-01 5.000e-08 2.500e-30
5.000e-02 5.000e-09 2.000e-01 5.000e-08 1.000e-06 1.000e-06 2.500e-30
9.500e-01 1.000e-03 1.000e-08 1.000e-03 5.000e-08 5.000e-09 2.375e-30
1.000e-05 1.000e-09 5.000e-09 3.000e-01 1.000e-06 1.500e-01 2.250e-30
1.000e-05 1.000e-06 3.000e-01 1.000e-05 1.000e-08 5.000e-06 1.500e-30
5.000e-05 1.000e-09 2.000e-01 5.000e-06 5.000e-07 5.000e-05 1.250e-30
5.000e-09 1.000e-05 4.500e-01 5.000e-06 1.000e-07 1.000e-04 1.125e-30
1.000e-05 1.000e-05 1.000e-05 1.000e-05 1.000e-05 1.000e-05 1.000e-30
2.000e-01 1.000e-08 5.000e-04 1.000e-08 1.000e-06 1.000e-04 1.000e-30
1.000e-09 1.000e-05 9.990e-01 1.000e-05 1.000e-06 1.000e-05 9.990e-31
1.500e-01 5.000e-09 5.000e-09 5.000e-06 1.000e-05 5.000e-03 9.375e-31
1.000e-09 3.500e-01 1.000e-07 1.000e-04 5.000e-03 5.000e-08 8.750e-31
1.500e-01 5.000e-09 5.000e-08 3.500e-01 5.000e-07 1.000e-07 6.563e-31
5.000e-06 1.000e-09 9.990e-01 1.000e-07 1.000e-09 9.900e-01 4.945e-31
1.000e-01 1.000e-05 4.500e-01 1.000e-09 1.000e-07 1.000e-08 4.500e-31
5.000e-09 2.500e-01 3.000e-01 1.000e-06 1.000e-06 1.000e-09 3.750e-31
5.000e-07 5.000e-09 5.000e-07 5.000e-08 5.000e-01 1.000e-02 3.125e-31
1.000e-09 5.000e-06 1.000e-02 5.000e-03 1.000e-05 5.000e-08 1.250e-31
1.000e-09 1.000e-05 5.000e-08 1.000e-03 5.000e-06 5.000e-02 1.250e-31
5.000e-09 5.000e-09 1.000e-01 5.000e-05 2.000e-01 5.000e-09 1.250e-31
5.000e-08 9.990e-01 5.000e-07 1.000e-06 1.000e-06 5.000e-06 1.249e-31
1.000e-08 5.000e-07 5.000e-07 1.000e-06 9.500e-01 5.000e-05 1.188e-31
5.000e-05 5.000e-09 5.000e-08 1.000e-06 8.500e-01 5.000e-06 5.313e-32
8.000e-01 1.000e-07 1.000e-08 5.000e-06 1.000e-09 1.000e-02 4.000e-32
1.000e-09 1.000e-09 1.000e-05 1.500e-01 1.000e-07 2.500e-01 3.750e-32
Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 61
Probability of
Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”
1.000e-09 5.000e-09 1.000e-08 3.000e-01 3.000e-01 5.000e-06 2.250e-32
5.000e-06 5.000e-06 5.000e-06 5.000e-06 5.000e-06 5.000e-06 1.563e-32
1.000e-08 1.000e-06 1.000e-09 1.000e-06 1.000e-03 7.000e-01 7.000e-33
1.500e-01 5.000e-09 5.000e-06 5.000e-09 1.000e-09 3.500e-01 6.563e-33
5.000e-03 1.000e-09 2.000e-01 1.000e-06 1.000e-09 5.000e-06 5.000e-33
5.000e-03 5.000e-09 5.000e-08 5.000e-08 5.000e-07 1.500e-01 4.688e-33
5.000e-06 2.500e-01 1.000e-08 1.000e-07 5.000e-09 5.000e-04 3.125e-33
1.000e-08 1.000e-04 6.000e-01 5.000e-08 1.000e-07 1.000e-06 3.000e-33
5.000e-09 6.500e-01 1.000e-07 1.000e-05 1.000e-05 5.000e-08 1.625e-33
1.000e-09 5.000e-04 1.000e-02 1.000e-03 5.000e-09 5.000e-08 1.250e-33
5.000e-01 1.000e-09 2.000e-01 5.000e-07 5.000e-09 5.000e-09 1.250e-33
5.000e-09 1.000e-05 6.000e-01 5.000e-08 1.000e-08 5.000e-05 7.500e-34
1.000e-07 1.000e-04 3.000e-01 5.000e-09 1.000e-09 5.000e-05 7.500e-34
5.000e-09 5.000e-09 1.500e-01 1.000e-03 1.000e-05 1.000e-08 3.750e-34
1.000e-06 5.000e-02 5.000e-06 5.000e-08 5.000e-07 5.000e-08 3.125e-34
5.000e-06 9.500e-01 1.000e-05 1.000e-09 1.000e-09 5.000e-06 2.375e-34
1.000e-08 1.000e-09 5.000e-06 5.000e-03 1.000e-09 8.500e-01 2.125e-34
3.500e-01 1.000e-05 1.000e-09 1.000e-06 1.000e-08 5.000e-06 1.750e-34
5.000e-06 5.000e-07 1.000e-09 5.000e-09 1.000e-05 8.500e-01 1.063e-34
1.000e-08 5.000e-02 5.000e-08 5.000e-08 1.000e-09 5.000e-02 6.250e-35
5.500e-01 5.000e-09 5.000e-07 1.000e-08 5.000e-08 5.000e-05 3.438e-35
1.000e-03 1.000e-09 5.000e-05 5.000e-06 1.000e-05 1.000e-08 2.500e-35
1.000e-09 1.000e-06 5.000e-08 1.000e-08 5.000e-05 5.000e-01 1.250e-35
5.000e-05 9.000e-01 5.000e-08 5.000e-08 1.000e-07 1.000e-09 1.125e-35
1.000e-09 5.000e-07 5.000e-05 1.000e-06 5.000e-05 5.000e-06 6.250e-36
1.000e-04 1.000e-05 1.000e-03 5.000e-08 5.000e-09 5.000e-09 1.250e-36
1.000e-06 1.000e-06 1.000e-06 1.000e-06 1.000e-06 1.000e-06 1.000e-36
5.000e-09 5.000e-05 5.000e-07 1.000e-06 1.000e-06 1.000e-06 1.250e-37
Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 62
Probability of
Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”
5.000e-06 5.000e-09 1.000e-05 1.000e-03 1.000e-09 1.000e-07 2.500e-38
5.000e-07 5.000e-07 5.000e-07 5.000e-07 5.000e-07 5.000e-07 1.563e-38
5.000e-01 1.000e-09 5.000e-08 1.000e-07 5.000e-07 1.000e-08 1.250e-38
1.000e-08 1.000e-05 5.000e-07 1.000e-06 1.000e-08 5.000e-06 2.500e-39
1.000e-07 1.000e-07 1.000e-07 1.000e-07 1.000e-07 1.000e-07 1.000e-42
5.000e-08 5.000e-08 5.000e-08 5.000e-08 5.000e-08 5.000e-08 1.563e-44
1.000e-08 1.000e-08 1.000e-08 1.000e-08 1.000e-08 1.000e-08 1.000e-48
5.000e-09 5.000e-09 5.000e-09 5.000e-09 5.000e-09 5.000e-09 1.563e-50
1.000e-09 1.000e-09 1.000e-09 1.000e-09 1.000e-09 1.000e-09 1.000e-54