bureau of reclamation · created date: 11/18/2004 6:27:54 pm

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1 Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities Appendix 13. Output from simulation analysis of invasion probabilities. Probability of Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion” 9.990e-01 9.990e-01 9.990e-01 9.990e-01 9.990e-01 9.990e-01 9.940e-01 9.900e-01 9.900e-01 9.900e-01 9.900e-01 9.900e-01 9.900e-01 9.415e-01 9.500e-01 9.500e-01 9.500e-01 9.500e-01 9.500e-01 9.500e-01 7.351e-01 9.000e-01 9.000e-01 9.000e-01 9.000e-01 9.000e-01 9.000e-01 5.314e-01 8.500e-01 8.500e-01 8.500e-01 8.500e-01 8.500e-01 8.500e-01 3.771e-01 8.000e-01 8.000e-01 8.000e-01 8.000e-01 8.000e-01 8.000e-01 2.621e-01 7.500e-01 7.500e-01 7.500e-01 7.500e-01 7.500e-01 7.500e-01 1.780e-01 7.000e-01 7.000e-01 7.000e-01 7.000e-01 7.000e-01 7.000e-01 1.176e-01 6.500e-01 6.500e-01 6.500e-01 6.500e-01 6.500e-01 6.500e-01 7.542e-02 8.500e-01 8.500e-01 9.990e-01 5.000e-01 4.000e-01 5.000e-01 7.218e-02 5.000e-01 4.500e-01 4.000e-01 9.900e-01 8.500e-01 6.500e-01 4.923e-02 6.000e-01 6.000e-01 6.000e-01 6.000e-01 6.000e-01 6.000e-01 4.666e-02 9.500e-01 6.000e-01 5.000e-01 7.500e-01 4.000e-01 5.000e-01 4.275e-02 9.990e-01 7.500e-01 4.000e-01 2.000e-01 6.500e-01 9.000e-01 3.506e-02 9.500e-01 7.000e-01 4.000e-01 7.000e-01 5.000e-01 3.500e-01 3.258e-02 5.500e-01 5.500e-01 5.500e-01 5.500e-01 5.500e-01 5.500e-01 2.768e-02 5.000e-01 8.000e-01 1.500e-01 3.000e-01 9.500e-01 9.900e-01 1.693e-02 4.000e-01 7.500e-01 9.990e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-01 7.500e-01 1.686e-02 5.000e-01 5.000e-01 5.000e-01 5.000e-01 5.000e-01 5.000e-01 1.562e-02 7.500e-01 5.000e-02 7.500e-01 7.000e-01 8.500e-01 7.000e-01 1.171e-02 5.000e-01 9.990e-01 5.000e-01 9.900e-01 8.000e-01 5.000e-02 9.890e-03 4.500e-01 4.500e-01 4.500e-01 4.500e-01 4.500e-01 4.500e-01 8.304e-03 3.000e-01 4.500e-01 6.000e-01 9.000e-01 6.500e-01 1.500e-01 7.108e-03 9.500e-01 8.500e-01 4.000e-01 9.000e-01 4.500e-01 5.000e-02 6.541e-03 3.000e-01 6.000e-01 2.000e-01 5.000e-01 8.000e-01 4.500e-01 6.480e-03 9.990e-01 1.000e-01 3.500e-01 6.000e-01 6.000e-01 4.000e-01 5.035e-03 3.500e-01 1.500e-01 8.000e-01 4.500e-01 3.000e-01 8.500e-01 4.820e-03 9.500e-01 6.000e-01 7.500e-01 3.000e-01 1.000e-01 3.500e-01 4.489e-03

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Page 1: Bureau of Reclamation · Created Date: 11/18/2004 6:27:54 PM

1 Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities

Appendix 13. Output from simulation analysis of invasion probabilities.

Probability of

Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”

9.990e-01 9.990e-01 9.990e-01 9.990e-01 9.990e-01 9.990e-01 9.940e-01

9.900e-01 9.900e-01 9.900e-01 9.900e-01 9.900e-01 9.900e-01 9.415e-01

9.500e-01 9.500e-01 9.500e-01 9.500e-01 9.500e-01 9.500e-01 7.351e-01

9.000e-01 9.000e-01 9.000e-01 9.000e-01 9.000e-01 9.000e-01 5.314e-01

8.500e-01 8.500e-01 8.500e-01 8.500e-01 8.500e-01 8.500e-01 3.771e-01

8.000e-01 8.000e-01 8.000e-01 8.000e-01 8.000e-01 8.000e-01 2.621e-01

7.500e-01 7.500e-01 7.500e-01 7.500e-01 7.500e-01 7.500e-01 1.780e-01

7.000e-01 7.000e-01 7.000e-01 7.000e-01 7.000e-01 7.000e-01 1.176e-01

6.500e-01 6.500e-01 6.500e-01 6.500e-01 6.500e-01 6.500e-01 7.542e-02

8.500e-01 8.500e-01 9.990e-01 5.000e-01 4.000e-01 5.000e-01 7.218e-02

5.000e-01 4.500e-01 4.000e-01 9.900e-01 8.500e-01 6.500e-01 4.923e-02

6.000e-01 6.000e-01 6.000e-01 6.000e-01 6.000e-01 6.000e-01 4.666e-02

9.500e-01 6.000e-01 5.000e-01 7.500e-01 4.000e-01 5.000e-01 4.275e-02

9.990e-01 7.500e-01 4.000e-01 2.000e-01 6.500e-01 9.000e-01 3.506e-02

9.500e-01 7.000e-01 4.000e-01 7.000e-01 5.000e-01 3.500e-01 3.258e-02

5.500e-01 5.500e-01 5.500e-01 5.500e-01 5.500e-01 5.500e-01 2.768e-02

5.000e-01 8.000e-01 1.500e-01 3.000e-01 9.500e-01 9.900e-01 1.693e-02

4.000e-01 7.500e-01 9.990e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-01 7.500e-01 1.686e-02

5.000e-01 5.000e-01 5.000e-01 5.000e-01 5.000e-01 5.000e-01 1.562e-02

7.500e-01 5.000e-02 7.500e-01 7.000e-01 8.500e-01 7.000e-01 1.171e-02

5.000e-01 9.990e-01 5.000e-01 9.900e-01 8.000e-01 5.000e-02 9.890e-03

4.500e-01 4.500e-01 4.500e-01 4.500e-01 4.500e-01 4.500e-01 8.304e-03

3.000e-01 4.500e-01 6.000e-01 9.000e-01 6.500e-01 1.500e-01 7.108e-03

9.500e-01 8.500e-01 4.000e-01 9.000e-01 4.500e-01 5.000e-02 6.541e-03

3.000e-01 6.000e-01 2.000e-01 5.000e-01 8.000e-01 4.500e-01 6.480e-03

9.990e-01 1.000e-01 3.500e-01 6.000e-01 6.000e-01 4.000e-01 5.035e-03

3.500e-01 1.500e-01 8.000e-01 4.500e-01 3.000e-01 8.500e-01 4.820e-03

9.500e-01 6.000e-01 7.500e-01 3.000e-01 1.000e-01 3.500e-01 4.489e-03

Page 2: Bureau of Reclamation · Created Date: 11/18/2004 6:27:54 PM

2 Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities

Probability of

Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”

4.000e-01 4.000e-01 4.000e-01 4.000e-01 4.000e-01 4.000e-01 4.096e-03

5.500e-01 4.000e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-01 4.000e-01 5.500e-01 3.630e-03

5.500e-01 9.990e-01 8.500e-01 3.000e-01 1.000e-01 2.500e-01 3.503e-03

8.500e-01 1.500e-01 2.500e-01 2.000e-01 5.000e-01 8.500e-01 2.709e-03

3.500e-01 3.500e-01 3.500e-01 3.500e-01 3.500e-01 3.500e-01 1.838e-03

1.000e-01 1.000e-01 8.000e-01 3.000e-01 7.500e-01 9.900e-01 1.782e-03

5.000e-02 4.000e-01 9.500e-01 7.500e-01 3.000e-01 4.000e-01 1.710e-03

3.500e-01 4.000e-01 5.000e-01 1.000e-01 2.500e-01 9.500e-01 1.662e-03

4.500e-01 3.500e-01 7.500e-01 1.500e-01 4.500e-01 2.000e-01 1.595e-03

1.000e-01 9.990e-01 3.000e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-01 7.000e-01 1.573e-03

5.000e-02 7.500e-01 4.000e-01 2.500e-01 9.500e-01 3.500e-01 1.247e-03

5.500e-01 8.500e-01 5.000e-02 5.000e-01 6.500e-01 1.500e-01 1.140e-03

9.000e-01 5.000e-02 2.000e-01 9.900e-01 4.000e-01 3.000e-01 1.069e-03

1.000e-01 3.000e-01 4.500e-01 3.000e-01 3.500e-01 7.500e-01 1.063e-03

2.000e-01 1.500e-01 8.500e-01 4.000e-01 1.000e-01 9.900e-01 1.010e-03

4.000e-01 4.000e-01 4.000e-01 9.900e-01 1.000e-01 1.500e-01 9.504e-04

8.000e-01 4.000e-01 2.000e-01 1.500e-01 1.000e-01 8.500e-01 8.160e-04

5.500e-01 8.500e-01 7.500e-01 3.000e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-02 7.889e-04

3.000e-01 3.000e-01 3.000e-01 3.000e-01 3.000e-01 3.000e-01 7.290e-04

3.500e-01 4.500e-01 5.000e-02 9.900e-01 8.000e-01 1.000e-01 6.237e-04

5.000e-01 1.500e-01 5.000e-02 5.000e-01 4.500e-01 7.000e-01 5.906e-04

1.500e-01 1.500e-01 3.000e-01 9.990e-01 2.000e-01 3.500e-01 4.720e-04

8.500e-01 9.990e-01 4.500e-01 1.500e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-02 4.299e-04

2.000e-01 3.500e-01 7.500e-01 1.500e-01 5.000e-01 1.000e-01 3.937e-04

4.000e-01 3.500e-01 7.500e-01 8.500e-01 7.500e-01 5.000e-03 3.347e-04

3.000e-01 9.990e-01 7.500e-01 2.500e-01 5.500e-01 1.000e-02 3.091e-04

8.000e-01 4.000e-01 1.000e-02 1.500e-01 8.000e-01 7.500e-01 2.880e-04

2.500e-01 2.500e-01 2.500e-01 2.500e-01 2.500e-01 2.500e-01 2.441e-04

3.000e-01 4.500e-01 3.000e-01 6.500e-01 6.500e-01 1.000e-02 1.711e-04

2.000e-01 9.990e-01 5.000e-02 1.500e-01 6.500e-01 1.500e-01 1.461e-04

Page 3: Bureau of Reclamation · Created Date: 11/18/2004 6:27:54 PM

3 Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities

Probability of

Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”

2.000e-01 5.000e-02 1.500e-01 3.000e-01 4.500e-01 7.000e-01 1.418e-04

9.900e-01 6.500e-01 5.000e-02 5.000e-03 8.000e-01 8.500e-01 1.094e-04

4.000e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-02 2.500e-01 2.000e-01 7.000e-01 1.050e-04

9.500e-01 8.500e-01 8.500e-01 3.000e-01 1.000e-02 5.000e-02 1.030e-04

1.000e-03 9.990e-01 5.000e-01 7.500e-01 9.500e-01 2.500e-01 8.897e-05

5.000e-02 3.500e-01 9.500e-01 9.900e-01 5.000e-03 9.900e-01 8.147e-05

4.000e-01 1.500e-01 1.000e-02 3.000e-01 6.000e-01 7.000e-01 7.560e-05

2.000e-01 2.000e-01 2.000e-01 2.000e-01 2.000e-01 2.000e-01 6.400e-05

4.000e-01 7.500e-01 9.990e-01 3.500e-01 9.500e-01 5.000e-04 4.983e-05

8.500e-01 1.000e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-01 1.000e-02 7.500e-01 4.781e-05

9.000e-01 1.000e-03 6.500e-01 9.000e-01 3.500e-01 2.500e-01 4.607e-05

4.000e-01 3.500e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e-01 4.000e-01 8.000e-01 4.480e-05

8.500e-01 1.000e-03 3.000e-01 2.500e-01 9.900e-01 7.000e-01 4.418e-05

3.500e-01 1.000e-03 7.500e-01 8.500e-01 4.000e-01 4.500e-01 4.016e-05

6.500e-01 5.000e-02 1.000e-02 2.500e-01 7.500e-01 6.500e-01 3.961e-05

1.500e-01 4.500e-01 6.500e-01 1.000e-03 9.500e-01 8.500e-01 3.543e-05

5.000e-01 1.000e-03 7.500e-01 2.500e-01 3.000e-01 9.500e-01 2.672e-05

8.500e-01 7.500e-01 8.500e-01 5.000e-05 9.000e-01 9.500e-01 2.317e-05

7.500e-01 5.000e-02 4.000e-01 1.000e-01 3.000e-01 5.000e-02 2.250e-05

2.500e-01 7.500e-01 5.000e-04 9.000e-01 7.500e-01 3.500e-01 2.215e-05

1.000e-02 6.000e-01 6.000e-01 1.000e-01 3.000e-01 2.000e-01 2.160e-05

8.000e-01 1.000e-02 7.500e-01 9.990e-01 6.500e-01 5.000e-03 1.948e-05

9.500e-01 7.500e-01 8.500e-01 3.000e-01 2.000e-01 5.000e-04 1.817e-05

9.990e-01 7.000e-01 5.000e-02 2.000e-01 5.000e-01 5.000e-03 1.748e-05

1.000e-02 3.000e-01 3.500e-01 1.500e-01 3.000e-01 3.500e-01 1.654e-05

9.000e-01 1.000e-04 7.500e-01 7.000e-01 9.500e-01 3.500e-01 1.571e-05

9.990e-01 6.000e-01 9.990e-01 7.500e-01 6.500e-01 5.000e-05 1.460e-05

1.500e-01 1.500e-01 1.500e-01 1.500e-01 1.500e-01 1.500e-01 1.139e-05

7.500e-01 4.000e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e-02 6.500e-01 5.500e-01 1.073e-05

4.000e-01 7.500e-01 8.000e-01 6.000e-01 1.000e-04 7.000e-01 1.008e-05

Page 4: Bureau of Reclamation · Created Date: 11/18/2004 6:27:54 PM

4 Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities

Probability of

Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”

5.000e-02 1.500e-01 1.000e-02 2.000e-01 9.500e-01 7.000e-01 9.975e-06

5.000e-01 3.000e-01 8.500e-01 7.500e-01 9.990e-01 1.000e-04 9.553e-06

1.500e-01 1.000e-01 9.990e-01 8.000e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-03 8.991e-06

3.000e-01 8.500e-01 2.000e-01 7.000e-01 5.000e-01 5.000e-04 8.925e-06

9.990e-01 8.500e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e-01 9.990e-01 1.000e-02 8.483e-06

2.500e-01 7.500e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-04 6.000e-01 9.900e-01 8.353e-06

3.500e-01 7.500e-01 7.500e-01 6.000e-01 1.000e-04 7.000e-01 8.269e-06

5.500e-01 5.000e-02 8.500e-01 1.000e-03 7.500e-01 4.500e-01 7.889e-06

8.000e-01 5.000e-02 7.500e-01 5.000e-02 9.500e-01 5.000e-03 7.125e-06

1.000e-01 4.000e-01 8.500e-01 9.900e-01 5.000e-04 4.000e-01 6.732e-06

5.000e-05 8.500e-01 9.500e-01 3.000e-01 7.500e-01 7.000e-01 6.359e-06

4.500e-01 1.000e-02 1.500e-01 1.500e-01 4.000e-01 1.500e-01 6.075e-06

2.500e-01 7.500e-01 6.500e-01 9.990e-01 9.500e-01 5.000e-05 5.783e-06

9.500e-01 6.000e-01 5.000e-05 5.000e-01 5.000e-01 8.000e-01 5.700e-06

9.000e-01 1.500e-01 4.000e-01 1.000e-01 1.000e-01 1.000e-02 5.400e-06

4.000e-01 5.000e-04 5.000e-01 7.500e-01 4.500e-01 1.500e-01 5.063e-06

1.000e-03 1.500e-01 2.000e-01 8.500e-01 3.500e-01 5.000e-01 4.462e-06

1.000e-04 2.500e-01 6.500e-01 4.000e-01 7.500e-01 8.500e-01 4.144e-06

5.500e-01 5.500e-01 3.000e-01 1.000e-03 4.500e-01 1.000e-01 4.084e-06

1.500e-01 4.500e-01 3.500e-01 7.500e-01 2.000e-01 1.000e-03 3.544e-06

5.000e-01 1.000e-01 2.000e-01 1.000e-03 4.000e-01 8.000e-01 3.200e-06

5.000e-02 4.500e-01 4.000e-01 3.000e-01 5.000e-03 2.000e-01 2.700e-06

1.500e-01 8.500e-01 5.000e-05 6.000e-01 9.900e-01 6.500e-01 2.461e-06

9.000e-01 1.000e-04 1.500e-01 2.500e-01 7.500e-01 9.500e-01 2.405e-06

9.500e-01 7.500e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-01 9.000e-01 5.000e-05 2.405e-06

7.500e-01 4.500e-01 9.990e-01 1.000e-03 1.000e-02 7.000e-01 2.360e-06

9.500e-01 9.000e-01 4.000e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e-03 6.500e-01 2.223e-06

5.000e-05 6.000e-01 7.000e-01 3.000e-01 9.500e-01 3.500e-01 2.095e-06

9.500e-01 8.500e-01 1.000e-05 7.000e-01 4.500e-01 8.000e-01 2.035e-06

4.000e-01 1.000e-01 5.000e-01 2.000e-01 1.000e-01 5.000e-03 2.000e-06

Page 5: Bureau of Reclamation · Created Date: 11/18/2004 6:27:54 PM

5 Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities

Probability of

Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”

5.000e-03 5.000e-03 6.500e-01 4.000e-01 4.000e-01 6.500e-01 1.690e-06

9.000e-01 7.500e-01 7.000e-01 5.000e-05 1.000e-01 7.000e-01 1.654e-06

5.000e-05 5.500e-01 8.500e-01 1.500e-01 5.500e-01 8.000e-01 1.543e-06

8.000e-01 4.500e-01 1.000e-02 1.500e-01 5.000e-03 4.500e-01 1.215e-06

7.500e-01 6.500e-01 1.000e-02 3.500e-01 6.000e-01 1.000e-03 1.024e-06

1.000e-01 1.000e-01 1.000e-01 1.000e-01 1.000e-01 1.000e-01 1.000e-06

9.000e-01 2.500e-01 5.000e-05 1.500e-01 9.000e-01 6.500e-01 9.872e-07

5.500e-01 3.000e-01 6.000e-01 1.000e-03 9.500e-01 1.000e-02 9.405e-07

9.500e-01 4.500e-01 1.000e-01 5.000e-02 7.500e-01 5.000e-04 8.016e-07

9.900e-01 9.900e-01 2.500e-01 5.000e-06 6.500e-01 9.900e-01 7.884e-07

5.500e-01 6.500e-01 5.000e-06 7.500e-01 6.500e-01 8.500e-01 7.407e-07

9.000e-01 1.000e-02 8.500e-01 4.000e-01 4.500e-01 5.000e-04 6.885e-07

9.500e-01 5.000e-05 9.500e-01 5.000e-02 8.000e-01 3.500e-01 6.318e-07

8.500e-01 3.500e-01 6.000e-01 5.000e-01 1.000e-05 7.000e-01 6.248e-07

9.990e-01 1.000e-05 2.000e-01 7.500e-01 9.900e-01 4.000e-01 5.934e-07

1.000e-01 1.000e-03 5.000e-02 8.000e-01 2.000e-01 7.000e-01 5.600e-07

6.500e-01 7.500e-01 3.000e-01 8.000e-01 4.500e-01 1.000e-05 5.265e-07

3.500e-01 1.500e-01 2.000e-01 5.000e-05 9.500e-01 9.900e-01 4.938e-07

5.000e-03 1.000e-02 1.000e-01 9.900e-01 9.900e-01 1.000e-01 4.901e-07

5.000e-05 7.500e-01 9.900e-01 2.500e-01 1.500e-01 3.500e-01 4.873e-07

3.500e-01 6.500e-01 4.500e-01 1.000e-03 9.500e-01 5.000e-03 4.863e-07

5.000e-01 8.500e-01 7.500e-01 5.000e-01 3.000e-01 1.000e-05 4.781e-07

4.000e-01 9.500e-01 4.000e-01 3.000e-01 9.900e-01 1.000e-05 4.514e-07

1.500e-01 2.000e-01 3.000e-01 1.000e-01 1.000e-01 5.000e-03 4.500e-07

9.500e-01 5.500e-01 7.500e-01 2.500e-01 4.500e-01 1.000e-05 4.409e-07

1.500e-01 3.000e-01 2.000e-01 5.000e-04 1.000e-01 9.500e-01 4.275e-07

1.500e-01 8.000e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-03 9.500e-01 5.000e-03 4.275e-07

1.000e-05 5.500e-01 3.000e-01 7.000e-01 4.500e-01 8.000e-01 4.158e-07

6.500e-01 1.000e-05 9.500e-01 2.000e-01 5.000e-01 6.500e-01 4.014e-07

9.500e-01 4.500e-01 1.000e-05 3.000e-01 6.500e-01 4.500e-01 3.751e-07

Page 6: Bureau of Reclamation · Created Date: 11/18/2004 6:27:54 PM

6 Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities

Probability of

Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”

1.500e-01 6.000e-01 4.500e-01 2.500e-01 5.000e-05 7.000e-01 3.544e-07

1.000e-03 5.500e-01 9.500e-01 1.000e-03 7.500e-01 8.500e-01 3.331e-07

1.000e-03 8.500e-01 4.000e-01 1.500e-01 6.500e-01 1.000e-02 3.315e-07

8.500e-01 9.900e-01 5.000e-06 3.000e-01 3.000e-01 8.500e-01 3.219e-07

5.000e-01 5.500e-01 4.500e-01 5.000e-06 6.000e-01 8.500e-01 3.156e-07

5.000e-01 8.000e-01 1.000e-05 1.500e-01 6.500e-01 7.000e-01 2.730e-07

9.500e-01 1.000e-03 8.500e-01 1.000e-03 7.500e-01 4.500e-01 2.725e-07

8.000e-01 1.500e-01 9.900e-01 1.000e-05 3.500e-01 6.500e-01 2.703e-07

5.000e-02 4.500e-01 4.500e-01 5.000e-05 6.500e-01 8.000e-01 2.633e-07

4.500e-01 4.500e-01 8.500e-01 5.000e-05 3.000e-01 1.000e-01 2.582e-07

4.500e-01 3.000e-01 9.000e-01 5.000e-06 5.000e-01 8.500e-01 2.582e-07

1.000e-01 4.500e-01 1.000e-05 9.000e-01 9.500e-01 6.500e-01 2.501e-07

2.000e-01 1.000e-05 8.500e-01 3.000e-01 4.500e-01 9.500e-01 2.180e-07

9.500e-01 4.500e-01 6.500e-01 1.500e-01 1.000e-01 5.000e-05 2.084e-07

1.000e-05 9.000e-01 9.990e-01 5.000e-01 3.000e-01 1.500e-01 2.023e-07

1.000e-01 2.000e-01 8.500e-01 5.000e-01 4.500e-01 5.000e-05 1.913e-07

4.000e-01 7.500e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-06 9.500e-01 8.000e-01 1.710e-07

5.000e-03 4.000e-01 4.000e-01 1.000e-03 6.500e-01 3.000e-01 1.560e-07

8.500e-01 6.000e-01 4.000e-01 1.000e-06 8.000e-01 9.500e-01 1.550e-07

4.000e-01 1.000e-04 2.500e-01 5.000e-01 3.000e-01 1.000e-01 1.500e-07

2.000e-01 5.000e-04 8.500e-01 5.000e-02 1.000e-01 3.500e-01 1.488e-07

3.500e-01 2.000e-01 1.000e-05 7.500e-01 3.500e-01 8.000e-01 1.470e-07

9.000e-01 4.500e-01 1.000e-05 2.000e-01 2.000e-01 8.500e-01 1.377e-07

8.500e-01 1.000e-05 1.500e-01 5.000e-01 6.500e-01 3.000e-01 1.243e-07

5.000e-01 1.500e-01 8.500e-01 8.500e-01 2.000e-01 1.000e-05 1.084e-07

5.000e-06 7.000e-01 3.000e-01 3.000e-01 9.500e-01 3.500e-01 1.047e-07

8.000e-01 3.500e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-03 5.000e-04 9.900e-01 1.039e-07

1.000e-02 6.000e-01 4.500e-01 5.000e-02 5.000e-03 1.500e-01 1.013e-07

9.990e-01 9.000e-01 5.500e-01 3.000e-01 6.500e-01 1.000e-06 9.643e-08

4.500e-01 3.000e-01 5.000e-04 3.000e-01 9.500e-01 5.000e-03 9.619e-08

Page 7: Bureau of Reclamation · Created Date: 11/18/2004 6:27:54 PM

7 Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities

Probability of

Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”

3.000e-01 7.500e-01 4.000e-01 6.000e-01 5.000e-06 3.500e-01 9.450e-08

6.500e-01 9.990e-01 6.500e-01 2.000e-01 1.000e-06 9.990e-01 8.433e-08

5.000e-01 7.500e-01 1.500e-01 3.000e-01 9.500e-01 5.000e-06 8.016e-08

2.500e-01 7.500e-01 8.500e-01 1.000e-03 1.000e-01 5.000e-03 7.969e-08

5.000e-03 6.000e-01 5.000e-01 3.000e-01 5.000e-04 3.500e-01 7.875e-08

3.500e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-05 6.000e-01 9.900e-01 5.000e-02 7.796e-08

9.000e-01 4.500e-01 6.500e-01 8.500e-01 5.000e-07 6.500e-01 7.272e-08

1.000e-03 5.500e-01 2.000e-01 6.000e-01 2.000e-01 5.000e-03 6.600e-08

1.500e-01 5.500e-01 1.000e-05 3.000e-01 3.500e-01 6.500e-01 5.631e-08

3.000e-01 5.000e-05 7.500e-01 5.000e-02 5.000e-01 2.000e-01 5.625e-08

4.000e-01 5.500e-01 1.000e-02 5.000e-02 5.000e-01 1.000e-03 5.500e-08

1.000e-05 4.000e-01 2.000e-01 1.500e-01 4.500e-01 9.000e-01 4.860e-08

8.000e-01 1.000e-01 2.000e-01 8.000e-01 6.500e-01 5.000e-06 4.160e-08

9.990e-01 4.500e-01 3.000e-01 5.000e-06 4.000e-01 1.500e-01 4.046e-08

3.000e-01 7.500e-01 5.000e-01 6.000e-01 1.000e-02 5.000e-05 3.375e-08

9.500e-01 4.000e-01 5.000e-07 3.500e-01 5.000e-01 9.900e-01 3.292e-08

2.500e-01 3.000e-01 4.500e-01 5.000e-06 9.500e-01 2.000e-01 3.206e-08

1.000e-03 1.000e-03 7.500e-01 8.500e-01 9.900e-01 5.000e-02 3.156e-08

9.990e-01 8.500e-01 7.500e-01 6.000e-01 8.000e-01 1.000e-07 3.057e-08

9.990e-01 1.000e-06 4.500e-01 3.000e-01 3.000e-01 7.500e-01 3.034e-08

1.000e-06 6.000e-01 3.000e-01 6.000e-01 8.000e-01 3.500e-01 3.024e-08

5.000e-05 5.000e-02 6.500e-01 1.000e-01 3.500e-01 5.000e-01 2.844e-08

2.000e-01 6.000e-01 4.500e-01 1.000e-06 7.500e-01 7.000e-01 2.835e-08

5.500e-01 2.500e-01 4.000e-01 1.000e-04 5.000e-01 1.000e-02 2.750e-08

1.500e-01 4.000e-01 1.000e-05 2.500e-01 4.000e-01 4.500e-01 2.700e-08

3.500e-01 7.500e-01 3.000e-01 1.000e-06 7.500e-01 4.500e-01 2.658e-08

9.500e-01 9.990e-01 7.000e-01 1.000e-06 6.500e-01 5.000e-02 2.159e-08

5.500e-01 9.900e-01 1.500e-01 2.500e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e-04 2.042e-08

4.500e-01 5.000e-05 4.000e-01 7.500e-01 3.000e-01 1.000e-02 2.025e-08

Page 8: Bureau of Reclamation · Created Date: 11/18/2004 6:27:54 PM

8 Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities

Probability of

Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”

9.500e-01 1.000e-01 8.500e-01 1.000e-06 3.000e-01 7.500e-01 1.817e-08

1.000e-02 6.000e-01 5.000e-05 8.000e-01 1.000e-01 7.500e-01 1.800e-08

9.990e-01 5.000e-07 5.000e-01 5.000e-01 4.000e-01 3.500e-01 1.748e-08

6.500e-01 1.000e-01 7.500e-01 3.500e-01 1.000e-05 1.000e-01 1.706e-08

5.000e-03 9.000e-01 1.500e-01 5.000e-01 5.000e-03 1.000e-02 1.688e-08

5.000e-02 5.000e-02 5.000e-02 5.000e-02 5.000e-02 5.000e-02 1.563e-08

1.000e-07 9.990e-01 4.000e-01 9.900e-01 4.500e-01 8.000e-01 1.424e-08

2.500e-01 1.000e-06 4.000e-01 4.000e-01 9.900e-01 3.500e-01 1.386e-08

9.500e-01 9.000e-01 5.000e-08 9.900e-01 4.500e-01 7.000e-01 1.333e-08

5.000e-06 1.500e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-01 3.000e-01 7.500e-01 1.266e-08

1.000e-04 7.500e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-02 4.500e-01 5.000e-02 1.266e-08

2.500e-01 4.500e-01 2.500e-01 8.500e-01 1.000e-03 5.000e-04 1.195e-08

9.990e-01 1.500e-01 7.500e-01 4.000e-01 5.000e-03 5.000e-05 1.124e-08

5.000e-01 9.000e-01 1.000e-07 3.500e-01 9.990e-01 7.000e-01 1.101e-08

4.500e-01 4.000e-01 6.000e-01 5.000e-06 4.000e-01 5.000e-02 1.080e-08

1.500e-01 9.000e-01 2.000e-01 7.500e-01 5.000e-01 1.000e-06 1.013e-08

1.500e-01 1.500e-01 8.500e-01 5.000e-06 1.500e-01 7.000e-01 1.004e-08

1.000e-03 1.000e-01 6.000e-01 6.500e-01 5.000e-01 5.000e-04 9.750e-09

3.500e-01 4.500e-01 5.000e-02 3.500e-01 5.000e-06 7.000e-01 9.647e-09

8.000e-01 6.000e-01 4.000e-01 9.990e-01 1.000e-04 5.000e-04 9.590e-09

9.500e-01 6.000e-01 8.500e-01 5.000e-06 5.000e-03 7.500e-01 9.084e-09

5.000e-05 7.500e-01 4.000e-01 6.000e-01 2.000e-01 5.000e-03 9.000e-09

9.000e-01 9.500e-01 2.500e-01 6.000e-01 1.000e-07 7.000e-01 8.978e-09

5.500e-01 5.000e-07 4.000e-01 1.500e-01 6.500e-01 7.500e-01 8.044e-09

7.500e-01 1.000e-01 4.500e-01 1.500e-01 3.000e-01 5.000e-06 7.594e-09

1.000e-01 9.000e-01 9.990e-01 3.500e-01 5.000e-07 4.500e-01 7.080e-09

5.000e-03 4.000e-01 8.500e-01 8.000e-01 5.000e-06 9.990e-01 6.793e-09

9.990e-01 7.500e-01 9.990e-01 8.500e-01 1.000e-06 1.000e-02 6.362e-09

Page 9: Bureau of Reclamation · Created Date: 11/18/2004 6:27:54 PM

9 Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities

Probability of

Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”

9.990e-01 5.000e-03 4.500e-01 7.500e-01 7.500e-01 5.000e-06 6.322e-09

9.900e-01 4.000e-01 7.000e-01 1.000e-07 3.000e-01 7.000e-01 5.821e-09

7.500e-01 1.000e-05 6.000e-01 2.500e-01 5.000e-01 1.000e-02 5.625e-09

4.000e-01 1.000e-07 8.500e-01 3.000e-01 7.500e-01 7.000e-01 5.355e-09

1.000e-05 8.500e-01 7.500e-01 2.500e-01 6.500e-01 5.000e-03 5.180e-09

5.500e-01 4.000e-01 1.000e-07 7.500e-01 3.000e-01 9.900e-01 4.901e-09

2.500e-01 6.000e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-03 9.000e-01 7.000e-01 4.725e-09

5.000e-05 9.500e-01 6.500e-01 3.000e-01 5.000e-01 1.000e-03 4.631e-09

1.000e-01 7.500e-01 5.000e-05 3.500e-01 1.000e-02 3.500e-01 4.594e-09

3.500e-01 1.000e-01 6.500e-01 5.000e-06 8.000e-01 5.000e-02 4.550e-09

9.500e-01 2.500e-01 9.500e-01 2.000e-01 1.000e-07 9.990e-01 4.508e-09

4.000e-01 7.500e-01 9.000e-01 3.500e-01 9.500e-01 5.000e-08 4.489e-09

9.000e-01 1.000e-06 6.000e-01 8.500e-01 9.500e-01 1.000e-02 4.360e-09

1.000e-01 6.000e-01 1.000e-04 1.500e-01 5.000e-03 9.000e-01 4.050e-09

6.500e-01 6.000e-01 7.500e-01 2.000e-01 6.500e-01 1.000e-07 3.802e-09

9.000e-01 8.500e-01 1.000e-01 5.000e-01 9.900e-01 1.000e-07 3.787e-09

5.500e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e-05 2.000e-01 4.000e-01 8.500e-01 3.740e-09

4.500e-01 9.990e-01 2.500e-01 9.990e-01 5.000e-08 6.500e-01 3.649e-09

6.000e-01 6.500e-01 1.500e-01 5.000e-07 3.500e-01 3.500e-01 3.583e-09

5.000e-02 5.000e-02 7.500e-01 5.000e-06 4.500e-01 7.500e-01 3.164e-09

9.000e-01 5.000e-05 5.000e-02 8.000e-01 5.000e-03 3.500e-01 3.150e-09

4.500e-01 1.000e-01 4.000e-01 7.000e-01 1.000e-06 2.500e-01 3.150e-09

3.000e-01 6.000e-01 1.000e-02 5.000e-06 7.500e-01 4.500e-01 3.038e-09

9.990e-01 1.000e-01 5.000e-02 6.000e-01 2.000e-01 5.000e-06 2.997e-09

9.990e-01 9.990e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-04 8.000e-01 5.000e-05 2.994e-09

6.500e-01 4.500e-01 1.000e-06 3.000e-01 6.500e-01 5.000e-02 2.852e-09

7.000e-01 1.000e-01 6.000e-01 5.000e-07 4.500e-01 3.000e-01 2.835e-09

8.500e-01 5.000e-05 7.500e-01 2.500e-01 1.000e-03 3.500e-01 2.789e-09

Page 10: Bureau of Reclamation · Created Date: 11/18/2004 6:27:54 PM

Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 10

Probability of

Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”

4.000e-01 5.000e-05 1.500e-01 1.000e-02 2.000e-01 4.500e-01 2.700e-09

4.000e-01 4.000e-01 5.000e-08 4.500e-01 7.500e-01 9.900e-01 2.673e-09

2.000e-01 3.000e-01 3.500e-01 5.000e-02 5.000e-01 5.000e-06 2.625e-09

6.500e-01 5.000e-07 1.000e-02 9.900e-01 9.500e-01 8.500e-01 2.598e-09

1.500e-01 6.000e-01 7.000e-01 9.900e-01 1.000e-07 4.000e-01 2.495e-09

5.000e-01 3.500e-01 3.000e-01 1.000e-02 9.500e-01 5.000e-06 2.494e-09

1.000e-07 2.000e-01 4.500e-01 3.500e-01 9.500e-01 8.000e-01 2.394e-09

8.000e-01 8.500e-01 2.000e-01 5.000e-08 9.990e-01 3.500e-01 2.378e-09

3.000e-01 4.500e-01 1.000e-07 8.500e-01 4.500e-01 4.500e-01 2.324e-09

1.000e-01 7.500e-01 6.500e-01 1.000e-05 9.500e-01 5.000e-03 2.316e-09

6.500e-01 7.000e-01 5.000e-08 7.000e-01 9.500e-01 1.500e-01 2.269e-09

1.500e-01 6.000e-01 5.000e-05 5.000e-03 6.500e-01 1.500e-01 2.194e-09

4.000e-01 9.990e-01 6.000e-01 5.000e-08 4.500e-01 4.000e-01 2.158e-09

9.990e-01 1.000e-08 4.000e-01 9.000e-01 7.000e-01 8.500e-01 2.140e-09

7.500e-01 4.500e-01 5.000e-02 5.000e-02 5.000e-04 5.000e-03 2.109e-09

4.000e-01 4.000e-01 1.000e-02 3.500e-01 7.500e-01 5.000e-06 2.100e-09

1.000e-02 6.000e-01 4.000e-01 5.000e-01 3.500e-01 5.000e-06 2.100e-09

9.500e-01 4.000e-01 1.000e-07 2.500e-01 3.000e-01 7.000e-01 1.995e-09

7.500e-01 4.500e-01 1.500e-01 5.000e-07 1.000e-01 7.500e-01 1.898e-09

3.500e-01 8.500e-01 8.500e-01 1.000e-05 7.500e-01 1.000e-03 1.897e-09

7.500e-01 8.500e-01 3.000e-01 5.000e-08 2.000e-01 9.000e-01 1.721e-09

9.500e-01 1.000e-06 4.000e-01 1.500e-01 6.000e-01 5.000e-02 1.710e-09

4.000e-01 4.000e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-07 3.500e-01 4.000e-01 1.680e-09

5.000e-03 1.000e-01 1.000e-05 4.000e-01 9.500e-01 8.500e-01 1.615e-09

1.000e-05 4.500e-01 1.500e-01 5.000e-03 5.000e-01 9.500e-01 1.603e-09

7.500e-01 5.000e-07 3.000e-01 5.000e-02 9.500e-01 3.000e-01 1.603e-09

1.500e-01 6.500e-01 1.000e-07 7.500e-01 3.000e-01 7.000e-01 1.536e-09

2.500e-01 9.990e-01 1.000e-02 5.000e-06 2.000e-01 6.000e-01 1.499e-09

Page 11: Bureau of Reclamation · Created Date: 11/18/2004 6:27:54 PM

Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 11

Probability of

Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”

9.500e-01 9.990e-01 6.500e-01 9.000e-01 5.000e-06 5.000e-04 1.388e-09

1.000e-02 9.990e-01 4.500e-01 6.000e-01 1.000e-02 5.000e-05 1.349e-09

2.000e-01 8.500e-01 5.000e-08 7.500e-01 3.000e-01 7.000e-01 1.339e-09

1.000e-07 1.500e-01 7.500e-01 8.500e-01 4.000e-01 3.500e-01 1.339e-09

3.500e-01 6.500e-01 1.000e-05 1.000e-03 8.000e-01 7.000e-01 1.274e-09

5.000e-02 9.990e-01 5.000e-01 1.000e-04 5.000e-02 1.000e-02 1.249e-09

3.000e-01 1.500e-01 3.000e-01 6.000e-01 3.000e-01 5.000e-07 1.215e-09

1.000e-01 1.000e-07 4.500e-01 7.500e-01 9.990e-01 3.500e-01 1.180e-09

1.000e-04 1.000e-03 8.500e-01 2.500e-01 3.500e-01 1.500e-01 1.116e-09

9.990e-01 1.000e-05 8.500e-01 3.500e-01 7.500e-01 5.000e-04 1.115e-09

8.000e-01 6.000e-01 4.000e-01 7.500e-01 5.000e-08 1.500e-01 1.080e-09

1.000e-02 4.500e-01 7.500e-01 9.000e-01 5.000e-07 7.000e-01 1.063e-09

8.000e-01 5.000e-09 6.000e-01 8.500e-01 6.500e-01 8.000e-01 1.061e-09

8.500e-01 4.500e-01 1.000e-07 4.000e-01 4.500e-01 1.500e-01 1.033e-09

3.500e-01 1.000e-01 6.500e-01 4.500e-01 1.000e-01 1.000e-06 1.024e-09

2.000e-01 8.500e-01 5.000e-08 4.000e-01 4.500e-01 6.500e-01 9.945e-10

1.000e-02 8.500e-01 5.000e-07 7.000e-01 8.000e-01 4.000e-01 9.520e-10

3.000e-01 4.000e-01 9.990e-01 1.500e-01 1.000e-01 5.000e-07 8.991e-10

5.000e-01 3.000e-01 5.000e-01 5.000e-05 5.000e-04 4.500e-01 8.438e-10

1.500e-01 5.000e-05 5.000e-04 5.000e-01 9.900e-01 4.500e-01 8.353e-10

5.000e-03 1.000e-03 1.000e-02 3.500e-01 9.500e-01 5.000e-02 8.312e-10

2.500e-01 6.000e-01 1.000e-03 5.000e-04 2.000e-01 5.000e-02 7.500e-10

1.000e-02 7.500e-01 5.000e-02 5.000e-06 9.500e-01 4.000e-01 7.125e-10

4.000e-01 6.000e-01 4.500e-01 2.500e-01 5.000e-04 5.000e-05 6.750e-10

8.500e-01 2.500e-01 1.000e-06 7.000e-01 1.000e-02 4.500e-01 6.694e-10

1.000e-03 4.000e-01 5.500e-01 1.000e-05 4.000e-01 7.500e-01 6.600e-10

5.000e-01 6.500e-01 6.000e-01 1.000e-02 6.500e-01 5.000e-07 6.338e-10

5.000e-02 6.000e-01 1.000e-06 6.000e-01 1.000e-01 3.500e-01 6.300e-10

Page 12: Bureau of Reclamation · Created Date: 11/18/2004 6:27:54 PM

Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 12

Probability of

Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”

4.000e-01 1.000e-02 5.000e-05 5.000e-03 9.500e-01 6.500e-01 6.175e-10

3.500e-01 3.000e-01 4.000e-01 5.000e-08 9.500e-01 3.000e-01 5.985e-10

9.900e-01 5.000e-02 3.000e-01 8.000e-01 1.000e-03 5.000e-05 5.940e-10

3.000e-01 1.000e-01 8.500e-01 9.000e-01 5.000e-01 5.000e-08 5.738e-10

3.000e-01 9.990e-01 5.000e-04 5.000e-05 5.000e-01 1.500e-01 5.619e-10

3.000e-01 5.000e-07 4.000e-01 6.000e-01 1.000e-01 1.500e-01 5.400e-10

9.990e-01 5.000e-07 6.000e-01 6.000e-01 3.000e-01 1.000e-02 5.395e-10

1.000e-01 1.000e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-06 1.000e-01 7.000e-01 5.250e-10

4.000e-01 3.500e-01 2.000e-01 5.000e-07 2.500e-01 1.500e-01 5.250e-10

5.000e-02 1.000e-01 5.000e-06 1.500e-01 3.000e-01 4.500e-01 5.063e-10

5.000e-01 5.000e-02 5.000e-02 4.000e-01 1.000e-06 9.990e-01 4.995e-10

6.500e-01 6.000e-01 7.500e-01 3.000e-01 1.000e-01 5.000e-08 4.387e-10

3.000e-01 9.990e-01 5.000e-02 1.000e-07 4.500e-01 6.500e-01 4.383e-10

8.000e-01 4.500e-01 1.000e-03 1.000e-05 8.000e-01 1.500e-01 4.320e-10

9.500e-01 2.500e-01 7.500e-01 3.000e-01 5.000e-08 1.500e-01 4.008e-10

5.000e-05 7.500e-01 3.000e-01 1.000e-03 5.000e-02 7.000e-01 3.938e-10

9.990e-01 1.000e-08 7.000e-01 7.500e-01 5.000e-01 1.500e-01 3.934e-10

4.000e-01 9.500e-01 2.000e-01 5.000e-06 9.900e-01 1.000e-03 3.762e-10

1.500e-01 1.000e-06 7.500e-01 1.000e-01 6.500e-01 5.000e-02 3.656e-10

9.500e-01 6.000e-01 5.000e-08 6.000e-01 4.000e-01 5.000e-02 3.420e-10

3.000e-01 1.500e-01 5.000e-06 3.500e-01 5.000e-03 8.500e-01 3.347e-10

1.500e-01 1.000e-06 1.000e-02 7.500e-01 3.500e-01 8.500e-01 3.347e-10

1.500e-01 4.500e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-05 1.000e-03 6.500e-01 3.291e-10

9.900e-01 7.500e-01 6.500e-01 1.000e-01 6.500e-01 1.000e-08 3.137e-10

5.500e-01 6.000e-01 5.000e-07 4.000e-01 9.500e-01 5.000e-03 3.135e-10

1.000e-04 4.500e-01 1.000e-02 3.000e-01 4.500e-01 5.000e-03 3.038e-10

1.500e-01 8.000e-01 9.990e-01 5.000e-07 1.000e-01 5.000e-02 2.997e-10

1.500e-01 1.500e-01 5.000e-06 2.500e-01 1.000e-01 1.000e-01 2.813e-10

Page 13: Bureau of Reclamation · Created Date: 11/18/2004 6:27:54 PM

Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 13

Probability of

Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”

9.900e-01 6.000e-01 1.000e-08 3.000e-01 4.500e-01 3.500e-01 2.807e-10

1.000e-04 4.000e-01 3.500e-01 1.000e-03 4.000e-01 5.000e-02 2.800e-10

9.500e-01 5.500e-01 1.000e-02 7.000e-01 5.000e-07 1.500e-01 2.743e-10

4.000e-01 1.000e-04 1.000e-04 4.000e-01 2.000e-01 8.500e-01 2.720e-10

1.000e-03 1.000e-05 4.000e-01 3.000e-01 3.000e-01 7.500e-01 2.700e-10

1.000e-01 4.000e-01 2.000e-01 5.000e-08 9.500e-01 7.000e-01 2.660e-10

7.500e-01 8.000e-01 2.000e-01 5.000e-08 5.000e-02 8.500e-01 2.550e-10

3.500e-01 1.000e-01 5.000e-08 2.500e-01 8.000e-01 7.000e-01 2.450e-10

1.000e-03 4.000e-01 2.000e-01 1.000e-04 5.500e-01 5.000e-02 2.200e-10

1.500e-01 5.500e-01 7.500e-01 5.000e-08 1.000e-01 7.000e-01 2.166e-10

3.000e-01 5.500e-01 2.500e-01 3.500e-01 3.000e-01 5.000e-08 2.166e-10

5.000e-01 1.000e-07 8.000e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-02 7.000e-01 2.100e-10

9.000e-01 1.000e-04 5.000e-05 4.000e-01 4.500e-01 2.500e-01 2.025e-10

3.000e-01 5.000e-08 6.000e-01 1.000e-01 8.000e-01 2.500e-01 1.800e-10

9.990e-01 6.000e-01 4.000e-01 1.500e-01 9.500e-01 5.000e-09 1.708e-10

4.000e-01 9.000e-01 5.000e-01 7.500e-01 5.000e-09 2.500e-01 1.688e-10

9.990e-01 4.500e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-02 9.900e-01 5.000e-08 1.669e-10

1.000e-04 7.500e-01 9.900e-01 5.000e-06 9.500e-01 4.500e-01 1.587e-10

5.000e-01 1.000e-07 6.000e-01 1.500e-01 6.500e-01 5.000e-02 1.463e-10

1.000e-03 4.000e-01 7.500e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-06 6.500e-01 1.463e-10

8.500e-01 3.500e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e-06 9.500e-01 5.000e-02 1.413e-10

1.000e-04 5.500e-01 1.000e-01 3.000e-01 1.000e-04 8.500e-01 1.403e-10

1.500e-01 8.500e-01 4.000e-01 2.500e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e-06 1.275e-10

5.000e-01 9.000e-01 5.000e-07 2.500e-01 5.000e-03 4.500e-01 1.266e-10

4.000e-01 1.500e-01 1.000e-07 3.000e-01 1.000e-01 6.500e-01 1.170e-10

9.000e-01 6.500e-01 5.000e-09 4.000e-01 6.500e-01 1.500e-01 1.141e-10

4.000e-01 5.000e-06 6.500e-01 3.500e-01 2.500e-01 1.000e-03 1.138e-10

1.500e-01 9.990e-01 5.000e-03 6.000e-01 5.000e-05 5.000e-03 1.124e-10

Page 14: Bureau of Reclamation · Created Date: 11/18/2004 6:27:54 PM

Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 14

Probability of

Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”

1.000e-04 3.000e-01 6.500e-01 7.500e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-05 1.097e-10

1.000e-02 9.500e-01 7.500e-01 5.000e-08 7.500e-01 4.000e-01 1.069e-10

8.000e-01 5.000e-06 2.000e-01 8.500e-01 3.000e-01 5.000e-04 1.020e-10

9.990e-01 4.000e-01 2.500e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e-02 1.000e-05 9.990e-11

9.990e-01 1.000e-01 3.000e-01 5.000e-05 6.500e-01 1.000e-04 9.740e-11

3.500e-01 3.500e-01 1.000e-08 3.000e-01 7.500e-01 3.500e-01 9.647e-11

5.000e-05 8.500e-01 7.000e-01 5.000e-06 6.500e-01 9.500e-01 9.185e-11

8.000e-01 4.000e-01 5.000e-06 1.500e-01 7.500e-01 5.000e-04 9.000e-11

6.000e-01 1.000e-03 7.500e-01 5.000e-05 8.000e-01 5.000e-03 9.000e-11

8.500e-01 9.990e-01 5.000e-06 9.900e-01 4.000e-01 5.000e-05 8.407e-11

5.500e-01 5.500e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-05 6.500e-01 8.500e-01 8.357e-11

9.900e-01 4.500e-01 4.000e-01 1.000e-06 4.500e-01 1.000e-03 8.019e-11

9.900e-01 5.000e-09 4.000e-01 3.000e-01 3.000e-01 4.500e-01 8.019e-11

5.000e-02 1.000e-01 7.500e-01 2.500e-01 1.000e-07 8.500e-01 7.969e-11

3.500e-01 1.000e-01 3.500e-01 1.000e-06 6.500e-01 1.000e-02 7.963e-11

1.000e-03 7.000e-01 4.500e-01 5.000e-06 9.500e-01 5.000e-02 7.481e-11

9.900e-01 4.000e-01 5.000e-06 4.500e-01 8.000e-01 1.000e-04 7.128e-11

5.000e-03 1.000e-01 1.000e-05 3.500e-01 5.000e-02 8.000e-01 7.000e-11

9.990e-01 4.000e-01 5.000e-06 9.990e-01 5.000e-05 7.000e-01 6.986e-11

1.500e-01 4.500e-01 1.000e-02 5.000e-05 5.000e-03 4.000e-01 6.750e-11

1.000e-05 4.500e-01 1.000e-02 3.000e-01 5.000e-02 1.000e-01 6.750e-11

4.000e-01 6.000e-01 5.000e-09 1.000e-01 8.000e-01 7.000e-01 6.720e-11

4.500e-01 3.500e-01 5.000e-06 2.000e-01 5.000e-04 8.500e-01 6.694e-11

9.500e-01 1.000e-09 7.000e-01 9.900e-01 1.000e-01 9.900e-01 6.518e-11

2.500e-01 6.500e-01 5.000e-06 1.000e-03 2.000e-01 4.000e-01 6.500e-11

5.000e-02 8.000e-01 1.000e-08 2.500e-01 6.500e-01 9.990e-01 6.494e-11

4.500e-01 5.000e-09 2.000e-01 8.000e-01 2.000e-01 9.000e-01 6.480e-11

5.000e-02 9.500e-01 1.500e-01 1.000e-07 2.000e-01 4.500e-01 6.412e-11

Page 15: Bureau of Reclamation · Created Date: 11/18/2004 6:27:54 PM

Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 15

Probability of

Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”

1.000e-05 4.500e-01 1.000e-02 7.000e-01 2.000e-01 1.000e-02 6.300e-11

9.500e-01 4.500e-01 6.500e-01 5.000e-03 4.500e-01 1.000e-07 6.252e-11

2.500e-01 5.000e-02 5.000e-08 8.000e-01 3.500e-01 3.500e-01 6.125e-11

5.000e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-05 3.000e-01 9.500e-01 8.500e-01 6.056e-11

5.000e-02 3.000e-01 1.000e-02 5.000e-06 1.000e-01 7.000e-01 5.250e-11

9.500e-01 5.000e-04 3.500e-01 1.000e-06 6.500e-01 4.500e-01 4.863e-11

9.500e-01 1.000e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e-02 5.000e-02 1.000e-04 4.750e-11

1.500e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-01 6.000e-01 9.990e-01 1.000e-04 4.496e-11

4.000e-01 5.500e-01 5.000e-08 8.500e-01 9.500e-01 5.000e-03 4.441e-11

1.000e-05 1.500e-01 9.500e-01 3.000e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e-02 4.275e-11

4.000e-01 4.500e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-05 6.000e-01 7.500e-01 4.050e-11

9.900e-01 8.500e-01 1.000e-02 2.500e-01 3.500e-01 5.000e-08 3.682e-11

1.000e-05 2.500e-01 1.000e-03 3.500e-01 1.000e-01 4.000e-01 3.500e-11

9.500e-01 2.500e-01 1.000e-08 6.500e-01 4.500e-01 5.000e-02 3.473e-11

3.000e-01 1.000e-07 1.500e-01 7.500e-01 9.500e-01 1.000e-02 3.206e-11

1.000e-01 9.990e-01 5.000e-02 5.000e-08 8.500e-01 1.500e-01 3.184e-11

5.000e-05 9.000e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e-01 1.000e-03 7.000e-01 3.150e-11

3.000e-01 9.000e-01 5.000e-08 1.000e-02 6.500e-01 3.500e-01 3.071e-11

9.990e-01 2.500e-01 3.500e-01 1.000e-02 7.000e-01 5.000e-08 3.059e-11

9.500e-01 5.000e-05 6.000e-01 1.000e-03 5.000e-03 2.000e-01 2.850e-11

8.000e-01 1.000e-07 5.000e-03 7.500e-01 9.500e-01 1.000e-01 2.850e-11

8.000e-01 7.500e-01 9.500e-01 1.000e-06 9.990e-01 5.000e-05 2.847e-11

1.000e-03 7.500e-01 8.000e-01 2.000e-01 5.000e-07 4.500e-01 2.700e-11

3.500e-01 6.000e-01 5.000e-05 2.500e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e-03 2.625e-11

1.000e-01 1.000e-06 7.500e-01 5.000e-03 6.500e-01 1.000e-01 2.438e-11

3.500e-01 6.500e-01 4.000e-01 5.000e-02 9.500e-01 5.000e-09 2.161e-11

4.000e-01 6.000e-01 5.000e-05 5.000e-06 3.500e-01 9.500e-01 1.995e-11

6.000e-01 4.500e-01 1.000e-04 5.000e-06 9.500e-01 1.500e-01 1.924e-11

Page 16: Bureau of Reclamation · Created Date: 11/18/2004 6:27:54 PM

Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 16

Probability of

Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”

1.000e-01 1.000e-08 3.000e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-01 8.500e-01 1.913e-11

2.500e-01 6.000e-01 1.500e-01 1.000e-08 5.000e-01 1.500e-01 1.688e-11

6.500e-01 6.000e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e-02 5.000e-07 8.500e-01 1.658e-11

1.500e-01 4.500e-01 6.500e-01 5.000e-07 1.000e-03 7.500e-01 1.645e-11

9.900e-01 1.000e-03 1.000e-05 5.000e-03 4.000e-01 7.500e-01 1.485e-11

7.000e-01 2.500e-01 7.500e-01 5.000e-08 5.000e-03 4.500e-01 1.477e-11

9.900e-01 9.990e-01 7.000e-01 5.000e-03 5.000e-09 8.500e-01 1.471e-11

3.000e-01 5.000e-02 2.000e-01 5.000e-08 6.500e-01 1.500e-01 1.462e-11

9.500e-01 5.000e-09 5.000e-02 3.000e-01 4.500e-01 4.500e-01 1.443e-11

9.500e-01 4.500e-01 5.000e-06 1.000e-05 9.000e-01 7.000e-01 1.347e-11

5.500e-01 3.000e-01 5.000e-07 1.000e-03 4.500e-01 3.500e-01 1.299e-11

8.500e-01 6.000e-01 1.000e-02 5.000e-08 1.000e-01 5.000e-01 1.275e-11

3.000e-01 1.000e-05 8.500e-01 1.000e-03 5.000e-01 1.000e-02 1.275e-11

1.000e-09 1.000e-01 4.500e-01 9.500e-01 4.500e-01 6.500e-01 1.250e-11

3.000e-01 1.000e-04 9.900e-01 5.000e-07 9.900e-01 8.500e-01 1.250e-11

2.000e-01 7.500e-01 6.500e-01 2.500e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-05 1.219e-11

2.000e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e-02 3.000e-01 4.000e-01 5.000e-06 1.200e-11

1.000e-04 9.500e-01 3.000e-01 5.000e-03 8.000e-01 1.000e-04 1.140e-11

1.000e-01 1.000e-01 6.500e-01 3.500e-01 5.000e-06 1.000e-03 1.138e-11

6.000e-01 5.000e-09 8.000e-01 9.900e-01 9.500e-01 5.000e-03 1.129e-11

1.000e-02 5.000e-02 4.500e-01 5.000e-05 1.000e-01 1.000e-02 1.125e-11

1.000e-05 7.500e-01 9.900e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-05 2.000e-01 1.114e-11

9.990e-01 5.500e-01 1.000e-02 5.000e-04 8.000e-01 5.000e-06 1.099e-11

1.000e-05 6.000e-01 5.000e-02 1.000e-01 1.000e-03 3.500e-01 1.050e-11

9.500e-01 8.500e-01 5.000e-05 3.000e-01 1.000e-06 8.500e-01 1.030e-11

5.000e-05 1.000e-05 1.500e-01 1.500e-01 9.990e-01 8.500e-01 9.553e-12

4.500e-01 5.000e-07 7.500e-01 1.000e-02 5.500e-01 1.000e-02 9.281e-12

2.500e-01 3.000e-01 1.000e-05 3.500e-01 5.000e-05 7.000e-01 9.188e-12

Page 17: Bureau of Reclamation · Created Date: 11/18/2004 6:27:54 PM

Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 17

Probability of

Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”

9.000e-01 1.000e-06 5.000e-04 9.990e-01 1.000e-01 2.000e-01 8.991e-12

8.500e-01 1.500e-01 5.000e-08 5.000e-03 8.000e-01 3.500e-01 8.925e-12

1.000e-07 4.000e-01 2.000e-01 7.000e-01 3.000e-01 5.000e-03 8.400e-12

4.500e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e-08 9.990e-01 6.000e-01 3.000e-01 8.092e-12

9.000e-01 1.000e-08 7.500e-01 2.500e-01 4.500e-01 1.000e-02 7.594e-12

1.000e-01 5.000e-05 8.500e-01 3.500e-01 5.000e-04 1.000e-02 7.438e-12

1.000e-05 5.500e-01 5.000e-02 6.000e-01 4.500e-01 1.000e-04 7.425e-12

4.000e-01 5.000e-09 1.500e-01 2.500e-01 1.000e-01 9.900e-01 7.425e-12

9.500e-01 2.500e-01 1.000e-04 7.500e-01 4.000e-01 1.000e-06 7.125e-12

4.000e-01 1.500e-01 5.000e-03 1.000e-05 4.500e-01 5.000e-03 6.750e-12

5.000e-01 6.500e-01 1.000e-05 8.000e-01 4.500e-01 5.000e-06 5.850e-12

5.500e-01 1.000e-01 8.500e-01 1.000e-07 5.000e-03 2.500e-01 5.844e-12

5.500e-01 9.990e-01 5.000e-07 6.500e-01 6.500e-01 5.000e-05 5.804e-12

5.500e-01 9.990e-01 1.000e-08 3.000e-01 5.000e-03 7.000e-01 5.769e-12

5.000e-01 5.000e-05 1.000e-03 1.000e-02 4.500e-01 5.000e-02 5.625e-12

5.000e-08 1.500e-01 7.500e-01 5.000e-03 3.000e-01 6.500e-01 5.484e-12

5.000e-03 5.000e-08 5.000e-01 6.000e-01 2.000e-01 3.500e-01 5.250e-12

1.000e-07 6.500e-01 4.000e-01 2.000e-01 9.900e-01 1.000e-03 5.148e-12

9.500e-01 4.500e-01 5.000e-06 5.000e-01 9.500e-01 5.000e-06 5.077e-12

5.000e-01 2.500e-01 1.000e-07 1.000e-02 1.000e-01 4.000e-01 5.000e-12

1.000e-03 4.000e-01 1.000e-02 2.500e-01 5.000e-04 1.000e-02 5.000e-12

1.000e-03 3.500e-01 7.500e-01 7.500e-01 5.000e-07 5.000e-02 4.922e-12

1.000e-02 9.000e-01 5.500e-01 1.000e-06 1.000e-03 9.900e-01 4.901e-12

3.000e-01 5.000e-05 1.000e-02 6.500e-01 1.000e-03 5.000e-02 4.875e-12

9.500e-01 1.000e-03 4.500e-01 5.000e-07 4.500e-01 5.000e-02 4.809e-12

1.500e-01 4.500e-01 3.500e-01 5.000e-05 5.000e-06 8.000e-01 4.725e-12

6.500e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-02 5.000e-05 9.500e-01 3.000e-01 4.631e-12

5.000e-06 8.500e-01 6.500e-01 5.000e-01 6.500e-01 5.000e-06 4.489e-12

Page 18: Bureau of Reclamation · Created Date: 11/18/2004 6:27:54 PM

Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 18

Probability of

Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”

4.500e-01 8.500e-01 5.000e-06 3.000e-01 1.000e-05 7.500e-01 4.303e-12

8.500e-01 4.500e-01 4.500e-01 5.000e-02 1.000e-04 5.000e-06 4.303e-12

5.000e-03 1.000e-05 7.500e-01 5.000e-03 4.500e-01 5.000e-02 4.219e-12

9.990e-01 5.000e-02 7.500e-01 5.000e-02 4.500e-01 5.000e-09 4.215e-12

3.500e-01 1.000e-03 5.000e-01 1.000e-07 6.500e-01 3.500e-01 3.981e-12

1.000e-03 4.000e-01 1.000e-04 1.000e-04 9.900e-01 9.900e-01 3.920e-12

1.000e-01 6.000e-01 9.990e-01 1.000e-06 1.000e-04 6.500e-01 3.896e-12

1.000e-04 1.000e-01 4.500e-01 5.000e-06 2.000e-01 8.500e-01 3.825e-12

8.000e-01 9.500e-01 1.000e-07 1.000e-03 2.000e-01 2.500e-01 3.800e-12

4.000e-01 5.000e-02 1.000e-02 5.000e-05 7.500e-01 5.000e-04 3.750e-12

1.000e-03 9.990e-01 6.000e-01 5.000e-08 3.500e-01 3.500e-01 3.671e-12

1.500e-01 1.000e-09 8.500e-01 1.000e-01 4.000e-01 7.000e-01 3.570e-12

4.000e-01 4.500e-01 3.000e-01 1.000e-02 6.500e-01 1.000e-08 3.510e-12

1.000e-02 1.000e-05 1.500e-01 3.500e-01 1.000e-03 6.500e-01 3.413e-12

1.000e-05 9.990e-01 7.500e-01 5.000e-07 9.500e-01 9.500e-01 3.381e-12

1.500e-01 5.000e-02 6.000e-01 5.000e-08 1.000e-01 1.500e-01 3.375e-12

1.000e-02 9.990e-01 7.500e-01 5.000e-07 1.000e-03 8.500e-01 3.184e-12

3.500e-01 4.000e-01 6.000e-01 5.000e-09 7.500e-01 1.000e-02 3.150e-12

1.000e-04 5.000e-07 6.500e-01 2.500e-01 5.500e-01 7.000e-01 3.128e-12

3.000e-01 1.000e-05 2.000e-01 1.000e-01 5.000e-03 1.000e-02 3.000e-12

5.000e-01 6.000e-01 4.000e-01 1.000e-07 5.000e-03 5.000e-02 3.000e-12

5.000e-01 8.500e-01 1.000e-06 1.000e-01 1.000e-04 6.500e-01 2.763e-12

3.500e-01 1.000e-01 5.000e-02 1.000e-08 4.500e-01 3.500e-01 2.756e-12

1.000e-09 3.500e-01 3.000e-01 8.000e-01 2.000e-01 1.500e-01 2.520e-12

3.500e-01 6.000e-01 5.000e-08 2.500e-01 1.000e-03 9.500e-01 2.494e-12

1.000e-03 8.000e-01 1.000e-04 7.500e-01 4.000e-01 1.000e-04 2.400e-12

6.000e-01 1.000e-02 8.500e-01 5.000e-02 9.000e-01 1.000e-08 2.295e-12

9.500e-01 9.500e-01 5.000e-02 1.000e-07 9.500e-01 5.000e-04 2.143e-12

Page 19: Bureau of Reclamation · Created Date: 11/18/2004 6:27:54 PM

Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 19

Probability of

Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”

5.000e-01 7.500e-01 5.000e-06 5.000e-02 5.000e-05 4.500e-01 2.109e-12

3.500e-01 3.000e-01 8.500e-01 9.000e-01 5.000e-03 5.000e-09 2.008e-12

3.000e-01 9.900e-01 5.000e-06 6.000e-01 4.500e-01 5.000e-06 2.005e-12

5.000e-06 6.500e-01 1.000e-04 5.000e-02 3.500e-01 3.500e-01 1.991e-12

4.000e-01 3.000e-01 1.000e-01 2.500e-01 1.000e-09 6.500e-01 1.950e-12

9.500e-01 4.500e-01 3.000e-01 1.000e-06 3.000e-01 5.000e-05 1.924e-12

1.000e-03 7.500e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e-01 5.000e-03 5.000e-04 1.875e-12

2.500e-01 4.500e-01 6.500e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-01 5.000e-06 1.828e-12

1.000e-01 2.500e-01 2.500e-01 1.000e-09 4.500e-01 6.500e-01 1.828e-12

3.000e-01 4.500e-01 9.990e-01 5.000e-02 5.000e-05 5.000e-06 1.686e-12

7.500e-01 8.500e-01 1.000e-03 1.000e-03 5.000e-01 5.000e-06 1.594e-12

1.000e-06 9.990e-01 9.990e-01 1.000e-04 3.000e-01 5.000e-02 1.497e-12

5.000e-06 5.500e-01 4.500e-01 6.000e-01 4.000e-01 5.000e-06 1.485e-12

3.000e-01 1.500e-01 5.000e-06 1.500e-01 8.000e-01 5.000e-05 1.350e-12

1.000e-06 5.000e-02 5.000e-05 9.900e-01 7.500e-01 7.000e-01 1.299e-12

5.500e-01 8.500e-01 1.000e-02 5.000e-03 1.000e-05 5.000e-03 1.169e-12

1.000e-02 1.500e-01 7.000e-01 1.000e-06 9.900e-01 1.000e-03 1.040e-12

3.000e-01 1.000e-06 5.000e-01 1.000e-04 1.500e-01 4.500e-01 1.013e-12

1.000e-02 1.000e-02 1.000e-02 1.000e-02 1.000e-02 1.000e-02 1.000e-12

6.500e-01 2.000e-01 5.000e-07 5.000e-01 5.000e-05 6.000e-01 9.750e-13

5.000e-05 7.500e-01 9.900e-01 3.500e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-07 9.745e-13

1.000e-07 1.000e-04 7.500e-01 4.500e-01 3.000e-01 9.500e-01 9.619e-13

5.000e-05 4.000e-01 9.500e-01 9.990e-01 1.000e-07 5.000e-01 9.491e-13

9.000e-01 3.500e-01 5.000e-06 6.000e-01 1.000e-03 1.000e-03 9.450e-13

2.000e-01 1.000e-01 1.000e-07 7.000e-01 1.000e-03 6.500e-01 9.100e-13

5.000e-02 6.000e-01 1.000e-04 1.000e-06 6.500e-01 4.500e-01 8.775e-13

5.000e-03 9.000e-01 5.000e-05 5.000e-06 9.500e-01 8.000e-01 8.550e-13

4.000e-01 4.500e-01 1.500e-01 3.000e-01 1.000e-03 1.000e-07 8.100e-13

Page 20: Bureau of Reclamation · Created Date: 11/18/2004 6:27:54 PM

Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 20

Probability of

Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”

9.990e-01 1.000e-04 2.000e-01 1.000e-06 8.000e-01 5.000e-02 7.992e-13

5.000e-05 4.500e-01 3.000e-01 5.000e-07 6.500e-01 3.500e-01 7.678e-13

2.500e-01 6.000e-01 9.990e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-01 1.000e-06 7.493e-13

1.500e-01 8.500e-01 5.000e-08 3.500e-01 5.000e-04 6.500e-01 7.252e-13

2.000e-01 1.000e-04 1.000e-03 5.000e-05 8.500e-01 8.500e-01 7.225e-13

1.000e-06 4.500e-01 4.500e-01 7.500e-01 9.500e-01 5.000e-06 7.214e-13

7.500e-01 4.000e-01 8.500e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-07 5.500e-01 7.013e-13

3.500e-01 6.500e-01 6.500e-01 1.000e-06 1.000e-05 4.500e-01 6.654e-13

1.000e-05 4.500e-01 6.500e-01 4.000e-01 5.500e-01 1.000e-06 6.435e-13

5.000e-06 7.500e-01 5.000e-06 2.000e-01 2.000e-01 8.500e-01 6.375e-13

1.000e-09 7.500e-01 5.000e-01 5.000e-03 4.000e-01 8.500e-01 6.375e-13

4.500e-01 1.000e-09 4.000e-01 5.000e-02 1.000e-01 7.000e-01 6.300e-13

5.000e-06 5.000e-07 4.000e-01 8.000e-01 9.500e-01 8.000e-01 6.080e-13

1.000e-04 9.990e-01 8.500e-01 1.000e-08 8.000e-01 8.000e-01 5.435e-13

9.900e-01 9.500e-01 5.000e-01 4.500e-01 5.000e-08 5.000e-05 5.290e-13

1.000e-03 7.500e-01 1.000e-05 1.000e-03 2.000e-01 3.500e-01 5.250e-13

9.900e-01 1.000e-03 1.000e-08 3.000e-01 4.500e-01 3.500e-01 4.678e-13

1.000e-04 6.500e-01 1.500e-01 5.000e-06 9.500e-01 1.000e-02 4.631e-13

1.000e-03 4.000e-01 1.500e-01 5.000e-06 1.500e-01 1.000e-02 4.500e-13

8.500e-01 1.000e-06 5.000e-06 1.500e-01 9.900e-01 7.000e-01 4.418e-13

8.500e-01 4.500e-01 5.000e-07 5.000e-02 4.500e-01 1.000e-04 4.303e-13

5.000e-06 4.500e-01 6.000e-01 2.000e-01 3.000e-01 5.000e-06 4.050e-13

1.000e-03 3.500e-01 5.000e-04 1.000e-01 4.500e-01 5.000e-05 3.938e-13

6.500e-01 6.500e-01 1.000e-05 6.000e-01 1.000e-06 1.500e-01 3.803e-13

5.000e-01 2.000e-01 7.500e-01 5.000e-08 1.000e-01 1.000e-03 3.750e-13

5.000e-01 9.990e-01 1.000e-02 1.500e-01 1.000e-07 5.000e-03 3.746e-13

5.000e-05 1.000e-05 1.000e-02 2.500e-01 3.000e-01 9.000e-01 3.375e-13

1.000e-05 2.000e-01 5.000e-01 5.000e-06 1.000e-01 6.500e-01 3.250e-13

Page 21: Bureau of Reclamation · Created Date: 11/18/2004 6:27:54 PM

Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 21

Probability of

Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”

1.000e-01 6.000e-01 5.000e-04 1.500e-01 1.000e-07 7.000e-01 3.150e-13

9.990e-01 1.000e-04 9.500e-01 6.000e-01 1.000e-03 5.000e-06 2.847e-13

5.000e-06 5.000e-05 7.500e-01 1.000e-02 7.500e-01 2.000e-01 2.813e-13

1.000e-08 8.500e-01 1.000e-04 6.500e-01 6.500e-01 7.500e-01 2.693e-13

5.000e-05 5.000e-06 3.500e-01 6.000e-01 9.990e-01 5.000e-03 2.622e-13

5.000e-05 3.500e-01 8.500e-01 3.500e-01 1.000e-06 5.000e-02 2.603e-13

5.000e-05 1.000e-04 2.000e-01 4.000e-01 6.500e-01 1.000e-03 2.600e-13

9.990e-01 6.500e-01 1.000e-02 4.000e-01 1.000e-03 1.000e-07 2.597e-13

5.000e-02 3.000e-01 1.500e-01 4.500e-01 5.000e-06 5.000e-05 2.531e-13

5.000e-03 5.000e-07 4.500e-01 5.000e-04 9.990e-01 4.500e-01 2.529e-13

8.000e-01 2.500e-01 2.500e-01 5.000e-03 1.000e-04 1.000e-05 2.500e-13

1.500e-01 1.000e-03 2.500e-01 1.000e-07 1.000e-01 6.500e-01 2.438e-13

4.000e-01 8.500e-01 4.000e-01 1.000e-06 3.500e-01 5.000e-06 2.380e-13

4.000e-01 8.000e-01 3.000e-01 9.900e-01 5.000e-05 5.000e-08 2.376e-13

9.500e-01 1.000e-01 1.000e-02 5.000e-02 1.000e-02 5.000e-07 2.375e-13

2.500e-01 1.000e-08 1.000e-02 1.000e-01 1.000e-01 9.000e-01 2.250e-13

9.990e-01 1.000e-03 1.500e-01 3.000e-01 5.000e-07 1.000e-02 2.248e-13

1.000e-05 5.000e-07 6.000e-01 9.900e-01 1.000e-01 7.000e-01 2.079e-13

4.000e-01 6.000e-01 4.000e-01 5.000e-08 5.000e-05 8.500e-01 2.040e-13

3.000e-01 3.000e-01 5.000e-02 5.000e-05 1.000e-06 9.000e-01 2.025e-13

5.000e-01 1.000e-09 4.000e-01 9.900e-01 2.000e-01 5.000e-03 1.980e-13

5.500e-01 4.000e-01 4.000e-01 4.500e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-07 1.980e-13

1.000e-06 6.000e-01 1.000e-06 3.500e-01 9.500e-01 9.500e-01 1.895e-13

5.000e-01 7.500e-01 5.000e-01 1.000e-06 1.000e-01 1.000e-05 1.875e-13

5.000e-02 6.000e-01 1.000e-06 5.000e-03 5.000e-03 2.500e-01 1.875e-13

7.500e-01 1.000e-05 1.000e-05 7.500e-01 3.000e-01 1.000e-02 1.688e-13

1.000e-02 1.000e-03 5.000e-02 5.000e-06 4.500e-01 1.500e-01 1.688e-13

4.500e-01 5.000e-07 5.000e-02 1.500e-01 9.900e-01 1.000e-04 1.671e-13

Page 22: Bureau of Reclamation · Created Date: 11/18/2004 6:27:54 PM

Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 22

Probability of

Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”

3.000e-01 1.500e-01 1.000e-07 4.500e-01 8.000e-01 1.000e-04 1.620e-13

5.500e-01 4.500e-01 6.500e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e-05 1.000e-05 1.609e-13

1.000e-03 8.500e-01 5.000e-01 5.000e-05 5.000e-05 1.500e-01 1.594e-13

5.000e-05 6.000e-01 3.000e-01 1.000e-07 5.000e-01 3.500e-01 1.575e-13

8.500e-01 1.000e-06 4.000e-01 1.500e-01 1.000e-05 3.000e-01 1.530e-13

9.500e-01 6.500e-01 1.000e-04 5.000e-05 5.000e-05 9.900e-01 1.528e-13

8.000e-01 3.000e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e-07 6.000e-01 1.000e-03 1.440e-13

1.500e-01 6.000e-01 4.500e-01 1.000e-03 1.000e-08 3.500e-01 1.418e-13

1.500e-01 6.000e-01 5.000e-04 5.000e-08 2.000e-01 3.000e-01 1.350e-13

1.500e-01 8.500e-01 7.000e-01 5.000e-06 1.000e-06 3.000e-01 1.339e-13

9.500e-01 5.000e-05 1.000e-02 1.000e-06 6.000e-01 4.500e-01 1.283e-13

5.500e-01 3.500e-01 1.000e-04 1.000e-07 1.000e-01 6.500e-01 1.251e-13

1.000e-05 3.500e-01 5.000e-02 1.000e-03 1.000e-03 7.000e-01 1.225e-13

1.000e-07 8.500e-01 1.000e-05 2.000e-01 9.000e-01 8.000e-01 1.224e-13

8.000e-01 1.000e-08 5.000e-05 8.500e-01 9.990e-01 3.500e-01 1.189e-13

1.000e-01 5.000e-09 7.000e-01 4.500e-01 1.000e-03 7.500e-01 1.181e-13

6.000e-01 5.000e-09 1.000e-02 7.500e-01 9.900e-01 5.000e-03 1.114e-13

5.000e-02 5.000e-03 8.500e-01 5.000e-08 1.000e-01 1.000e-01 1.063e-13

9.500e-01 9.500e-01 5.000e-05 5.000e-08 3.000e-01 1.500e-01 1.015e-13

1.500e-01 5.000e-09 5.000e-04 8.000e-01 5.000e-01 6.500e-01 9.750e-14

5.500e-01 9.990e-01 5.000e-02 1.000e-09 1.000e-02 3.500e-01 9.615e-14

1.500e-01 5.000e-06 7.500e-01 3.000e-01 1.000e-06 5.500e-01 9.281e-14

8.500e-01 1.000e-05 9.500e-01 1.500e-01 1.000e-07 7.500e-01 9.084e-14

5.000e-01 9.000e-01 5.000e-02 1.000e-09 8.000e-01 5.000e-03 9.000e-14

5.000e-05 5.500e-01 6.500e-01 5.000e-01 1.000e-05 1.000e-03 8.938e-14

5.000e-06 4.000e-01 5.000e-07 2.500e-01 9.900e-01 3.500e-01 8.663e-14

9.000e-01 1.000e-05 1.000e-02 5.000e-06 5.500e-01 3.500e-01 8.663e-14

1.000e-05 5.000e-07 4.000e-01 5.000e-01 1.000e-01 8.500e-01 8.500e-14

Page 23: Bureau of Reclamation · Created Date: 11/18/2004 6:27:54 PM

Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 23

Probability of

Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”

5.000e-05 1.000e-04 1.000e-02 7.500e-01 5.000e-03 4.500e-01 8.438e-14

1.500e-01 1.500e-01 5.000e-02 1.500e-01 1.000e-04 5.000e-06 8.438e-14

8.500e-01 5.500e-01 5.000e-06 5.000e-08 9.990e-01 7.000e-01 8.173e-14

1.000e-04 1.000e-01 2.000e-01 5.000e-05 8.000e-01 1.000e-03 8.000e-14

8.500e-01 5.000e-07 5.000e-02 7.500e-01 9.900e-01 5.000e-06 7.889e-14

1.000e-07 6.500e-01 3.000e-01 2.000e-01 2.000e-01 1.000e-04 7.800e-14

7.500e-01 1.000e-04 4.000e-01 3.000e-01 1.000e-08 8.500e-01 7.650e-14

8.500e-01 6.500e-01 2.500e-01 1.000e-08 1.000e-01 5.000e-04 6.906e-14

1.500e-01 5.000e-09 4.000e-01 1.000e-01 5.000e-03 4.500e-01 6.750e-14

9.000e-01 1.000e-03 1.000e-09 9.900e-01 1.500e-01 5.000e-01 6.683e-14

5.000e-09 3.500e-01 9.500e-01 5.000e-02 1.000e-03 8.000e-01 6.650e-14

9.500e-01 1.500e-01 1.000e-04 1.000e-04 1.000e-04 4.500e-01 6.413e-14

8.000e-01 1.000e-06 5.000e-07 6.500e-01 3.500e-01 7.000e-01 6.370e-14

1.000e-04 6.000e-01 3.000e-01 1.000e-04 3.500e-01 1.000e-04 6.300e-14

1.000e-07 1.000e-05 8.500e-01 7.500e-01 6.500e-01 1.500e-01 6.216e-14

5.500e-01 9.000e-01 3.500e-01 5.000e-06 1.000e-07 7.000e-01 6.064e-14

3.000e-01 5.000e-07 4.500e-01 2.500e-01 5.000e-06 7.000e-01 5.906e-14

1.000e-06 6.500e-01 3.000e-01 6.000e-01 1.000e-01 5.000e-06 5.850e-14

3.500e-01 4.500e-01 1.500e-01 5.000e-06 9.900e-01 5.000e-07 5.847e-14

5.000e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-06 7.500e-01 3.000e-01 1.000e-02 5.625e-14

8.500e-01 1.000e-05 6.500e-01 5.000e-07 4.000e-01 5.000e-02 5.525e-14

3.500e-01 4.500e-01 6.500e-01 5.000e-02 1.000e-08 1.000e-03 5.119e-14

5.000e-06 3.000e-01 1.500e-01 6.000e-01 5.000e-07 7.500e-01 5.063e-14

9.990e-01 4.000e-01 5.000e-09 5.000e-03 9.900e-01 5.000e-03 4.945e-14

5.000e-05 3.000e-01 1.000e-02 9.900e-01 5.000e-07 6.500e-01 4.826e-14

1.000e-04 8.500e-01 1.000e-07 5.000e-02 7.000e-01 1.500e-01 4.463e-14

1.000e-01 1.000e-03 4.500e-01 1.000e-07 9.900e-01 1.000e-02 4.455e-14

5.000e-06 4.500e-01 7.500e-01 5.000e-07 1.500e-01 3.500e-01 4.430e-14

Page 24: Bureau of Reclamation · Created Date: 11/18/2004 6:27:54 PM

Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 24

Probability of

Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”

3.500e-01 5.500e-01 1.000e-05 7.000e-01 6.500e-01 5.000e-08 4.379e-14

5.000e-02 4.500e-01 2.000e-01 1.000e-03 9.500e-01 1.000e-08 4.275e-14

1.000e-04 8.500e-01 5.000e-08 5.000e-02 3.000e-01 6.500e-01 4.144e-14

9.900e-01 5.000e-02 5.000e-07 3.000e-01 1.000e-01 5.000e-05 3.713e-14

3.000e-01 8.000e-01 5.000e-05 6.000e-01 1.000e-06 5.000e-03 3.600e-14

6.500e-01 5.000e-07 4.500e-01 5.000e-07 6.000e-01 8.000e-01 3.510e-14

9.990e-01 6.000e-01 5.000e-05 1.000e-08 7.500e-01 1.500e-01 3.372e-14

8.000e-01 1.000e-05 1.000e-07 1.500e-01 4.000e-01 7.000e-01 3.360e-14

3.500e-01 1.000e-01 7.500e-01 5.000e-03 5.000e-08 5.000e-03 3.281e-14

1.000e-04 1.500e-01 8.500e-01 5.000e-06 1.000e-01 5.000e-03 3.188e-14

5.500e-01 8.500e-01 1.500e-01 1.000e-07 9.000e-01 5.000e-06 3.156e-14

3.000e-01 5.000e-09 1.000e-03 1.000e-01 9.500e-01 2.000e-01 2.850e-14

5.000e-06 6.000e-01 4.000e-01 5.000e-08 4.500e-01 9.990e-01 2.697e-14

9.990e-01 4.500e-01 6.000e-01 9.900e-01 1.000e-05 1.000e-08 2.670e-14

5.000e-08 8.500e-01 5.000e-05 1.500e-01 5.500e-01 1.500e-01 2.630e-14

1.000e-04 3.500e-01 1.000e-05 7.500e-01 1.000e-01 1.000e-03 2.625e-14

4.000e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-09 2.000e-01 5.000e-04 8.000e-01 2.400e-14

4.000e-01 1.000e-06 5.000e-06 1.500e-01 1.000e-01 8.000e-01 2.400e-14

9.990e-01 5.500e-01 1.000e-06 1.000e-06 1.000e-01 4.000e-01 2.198e-14

1.000e-05 6.000e-01 5.000e-06 1.000e-03 9.500e-01 7.500e-01 2.138e-14

5.000e-05 6.000e-01 5.000e-09 6.000e-01 9.500e-01 2.500e-01 2.138e-14

1.000e-01 1.000e-04 2.000e-01 3.500e-01 3.000e-01 1.000e-07 2.100e-14

5.000e-01 1.000e-07 5.000e-06 1.500e-01 8.000e-01 7.000e-01 2.100e-14

4.500e-01 5.000e-03 8.000e-01 5.000e-05 4.500e-01 5.000e-07 2.025e-14

1.500e-01 4.500e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-06 4.000e-01 1.000e-06 2.025e-14

3.000e-01 8.500e-01 3.000e-01 5.000e-07 1.000e-01 5.000e-06 1.913e-14

7.500e-01 8.500e-01 6.000e-01 1.000e-06 1.000e-03 5.000e-05 1.913e-14

2.500e-01 5.000e-05 1.000e-02 3.000e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-02 1.875e-14

Page 25: Bureau of Reclamation · Created Date: 11/18/2004 6:27:54 PM

Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 25

Probability of

Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”

9.500e-01 5.000e-07 7.500e-01 7.000e-01 1.000e-07 7.500e-01 1.870e-14

5.000e-05 5.000e-06 1.500e-01 1.500e-01 5.000e-03 6.500e-01 1.828e-14

2.000e-01 8.500e-01 6.000e-01 1.000e-04 5.000e-09 3.500e-01 1.785e-14

9.000e-01 3.500e-01 1.500e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-04 5.000e-09 1.772e-14

9.000e-01 5.000e-07 3.500e-01 2.500e-01 1.000e-06 4.500e-01 1.772e-14

3.000e-01 3.500e-01 1.500e-01 5.000e-08 5.000e-05 4.000e-01 1.575e-14

5.000e-03 5.000e-03 5.000e-03 5.000e-03 5.000e-03 5.000e-03 1.563e-14

1.500e-01 1.000e-04 2.000e-01 2.000e-01 5.000e-03 5.000e-06 1.500e-14

5.000e-01 5.000e-02 6.500e-01 5.000e-06 5.000e-07 3.500e-01 1.422e-14

1.500e-01 5.000e-06 2.500e-01 5.000e-06 1.500e-01 1.000e-01 1.406e-14

5.000e-06 2.000e-01 1.000e-02 4.000e-01 5.000e-06 7.000e-01 1.400e-14

3.500e-01 1.000e-01 4.000e-01 5.000e-08 5.000e-05 4.000e-01 1.400e-14

5.000e-06 9.900e-01 5.000e-01 5.000e-08 7.500e-01 1.500e-01 1.392e-14

8.500e-01 5.000e-02 7.500e-01 5.000e-08 1.000e-05 8.500e-01 1.355e-14

9.900e-01 1.000e-04 5.000e-04 2.500e-01 9.990e-01 1.000e-06 1.236e-14

5.000e-01 5.000e-05 5.500e-01 2.500e-01 3.500e-01 1.000e-08 1.203e-14

8.000e-01 1.000e-09 1.000e-02 2.000e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-02 1.200e-14

1.000e-08 5.000e-02 4.000e-01 4.000e-01 1.500e-01 1.000e-03 1.200e-14

1.000e-05 1.000e-03 3.000e-01 1.000e-01 8.000e-01 5.000e-05 1.200e-14

5.000e-06 7.500e-01 1.500e-01 5.000e-06 5.000e-03 8.500e-01 1.195e-14

1.000e-04 1.000e-03 3.500e-01 4.500e-01 1.500e-01 5.000e-06 1.181e-14

8.000e-01 1.000e-06 4.000e-01 8.000e-01 4.500e-01 1.000e-07 1.152e-14

4.000e-01 6.500e-01 8.500e-01 1.000e-08 9.990e-01 5.000e-06 1.104e-14

6.500e-01 1.000e-03 1.000e-02 7.500e-01 5.000e-09 4.500e-01 1.097e-14

8.000e-01 4.500e-01 9.500e-01 1.000e-06 6.000e-01 5.000e-08 1.026e-14

7.500e-01 1.000e-04 1.000e-05 4.000e-01 6.500e-01 5.000e-05 9.750e-15

5.000e-09 6.500e-01 4.500e-01 6.500e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e-03 9.506e-15

9.500e-01 5.000e-09 1.000e-02 2.000e-01 2.000e-01 5.000e-03 9.500e-15

Page 26: Bureau of Reclamation · Created Date: 11/18/2004 6:27:54 PM

Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 26

Probability of

Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”

1.000e-09 4.500e-01 8.500e-01 5.000e-01 9.900e-01 5.000e-05 9.467e-15

7.500e-01 5.500e-01 1.000e-08 5.000e-06 6.500e-01 7.000e-01 9.384e-15

5.000e-09 3.000e-01 1.500e-01 8.000e-01 1.000e-02 5.000e-03 9.000e-15

9.500e-01 5.000e-05 7.500e-01 5.000e-08 5.000e-01 1.000e-02 8.906e-15

1.000e-01 5.000e-07 1.000e-05 3.500e-01 1.000e-01 5.000e-01 8.750e-15

2.500e-01 5.000e-07 1.000e-05 3.500e-01 4.000e-01 5.000e-02 8.750e-15

3.000e-01 6.000e-01 9.990e-01 5.000e-06 9.500e-01 1.000e-08 8.541e-15

5.000e-05 8.500e-01 1.000e-02 5.000e-07 4.000e-01 1.000e-01 8.500e-15

3.000e-01 2.500e-01 1.000e-07 2.500e-01 1.000e-05 4.500e-01 8.438e-15

8.000e-01 5.000e-07 6.500e-01 1.000e-07 4.500e-01 7.000e-01 8.190e-15

9.000e-01 7.500e-01 5.000e-08 5.000e-01 5.000e-07 9.500e-01 8.016e-15

6.500e-01 6.000e-01 5.000e-05 1.000e-05 8.000e-01 5.000e-05 7.800e-15

1.000e-05 1.000e-08 6.500e-01 1.500e-01 9.900e-01 8.000e-01 7.722e-15

9.000e-01 1.000e-04 8.500e-01 1.000e-01 1.000e-05 1.000e-04 7.650e-15

1.000e-05 5.000e-06 9.500e-01 8.500e-01 5.000e-04 3.500e-01 7.066e-15

1.000e-04 3.500e-01 5.000e-06 4.000e-01 2.000e-01 5.000e-04 7.000e-15

3.500e-01 5.000e-09 4.500e-01 5.000e-05 5.000e-01 3.500e-01 6.891e-15

8.000e-01 1.000e-08 5.000e-06 2.500e-01 8.000e-01 8.500e-01 6.800e-15

9.990e-01 4.500e-01 1.000e-06 6.000e-01 5.000e-07 5.000e-02 6.743e-15

4.000e-01 5.000e-09 7.500e-01 4.500e-01 9.900e-01 1.000e-05 6.683e-15

1.500e-01 5.000e-05 5.000e-02 1.000e-01 5.000e-07 3.500e-01 6.563e-15

5.000e-01 1.000e-08 1.000e-05 3.000e-01 6.000e-01 7.000e-01 6.300e-15

8.000e-01 5.000e-07 3.500e-01 1.000e-01 1.000e-06 4.500e-01 6.300e-15

9.900e-01 5.000e-09 4.500e-01 6.000e-01 1.000e-05 4.500e-01 6.014e-15

8.000e-01 5.000e-05 7.500e-01 5.000e-09 1.000e-01 4.000e-01 6.000e-15

5.000e-03 5.000e-09 6.500e-01 9.900e-01 3.500e-01 1.000e-03 5.631e-15

1.000e-02 5.000e-05 5.000e-02 5.000e-07 5.000e-01 9.000e-01 5.625e-15

1.000e-01 1.000e-07 5.000e-06 2.000e-01 6.500e-01 8.500e-01 5.525e-15

Page 27: Bureau of Reclamation · Created Date: 11/18/2004 6:27:54 PM

Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 27

Probability of

Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”

5.000e-05 5.500e-01 9.990e-01 1.000e-06 2.000e-01 1.000e-03 5.495e-15

3.000e-01 5.000e-07 8.500e-01 5.000e-08 9.990e-01 8.500e-01 5.413e-15

9.000e-01 1.000e-04 1.500e-01 5.000e-08 8.000e-01 1.000e-02 5.400e-15

5.500e-01 5.000e-08 6.500e-01 1.000e-04 3.000e-01 1.000e-02 5.363e-15

1.000e-04 5.000e-09 7.500e-01 1.500e-01 9.500e-01 1.000e-01 5.344e-15

1.000e-07 1.000e-06 5.000e-01 1.500e-01 9.990e-01 7.000e-01 5.245e-15

1.000e-06 4.500e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-06 1.000e-01 1.500e-01 5.063e-15

9.500e-01 1.000e-01 7.000e-01 5.000e-08 1.000e-05 1.500e-01 4.988e-15

3.000e-01 1.000e-03 4.000e-01 5.000e-06 8.000e-01 1.000e-05 4.800e-15

1.000e-03 1.000e-03 7.500e-01 1.000e-08 7.500e-01 8.500e-01 4.781e-15

9.500e-01 1.000e-03 1.000e-03 1.000e-06 5.000e-01 1.000e-02 4.750e-15

3.000e-01 4.500e-01 4.000e-01 5.000e-05 5.000e-09 3.500e-01 4.725e-15

5.000e-05 2.000e-01 1.000e-05 9.900e-01 9.500e-01 5.000e-05 4.703e-15

1.000e-08 7.000e-01 7.500e-01 2.500e-01 1.000e-05 3.500e-01 4.594e-15

1.000e-01 5.000e-09 7.500e-01 3.500e-01 6.500e-01 5.000e-05 4.266e-15

1.500e-01 5.000e-06 1.000e-07 1.500e-01 5.000e-01 7.500e-01 4.219e-15

5.500e-01 5.000e-05 3.000e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e-06 5.000e-02 4.125e-15

5.000e-05 4.000e-01 6.500e-01 1.000e-04 6.000e-01 5.000e-06 3.900e-15

9.990e-01 1.000e-03 5.000e-06 8.000e-01 9.500e-01 1.000e-06 3.796e-15

1.500e-01 5.000e-06 2.000e-01 1.000e-06 1.000e-01 2.500e-01 3.750e-15

5.000e-05 8.000e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e-06 1.000e-02 9.000e-01 3.600e-15

1.000e-04 8.500e-01 5.000e-07 9.900e-01 8.500e-01 1.000e-04 3.576e-15

9.500e-01 1.000e-06 5.000e-02 5.000e-03 3.000e-01 5.000e-05 3.563e-15

3.000e-01 1.000e-06 8.500e-01 1.000e-07 3.000e-01 4.500e-01 3.443e-15

1.000e-08 9.990e-01 7.500e-01 8.500e-01 5.000e-01 1.000e-06 3.184e-15

5.000e-09 1.500e-01 6.500e-01 8.500e-01 1.000e-05 7.500e-01 3.108e-15

1.000e-02 1.000e-04 9.990e-01 5.000e-09 6.500e-01 9.500e-01 3.084e-15

5.000e-02 5.000e-02 1.000e-06 3.500e-01 5.000e-06 7.000e-01 3.063e-15

Page 28: Bureau of Reclamation · Created Date: 11/18/2004 6:27:54 PM

Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 28

Probability of

Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”

1.000e-09 1.000e-01 1.000e-04 4.500e-01 9.500e-01 7.000e-01 2.993e-15

1.000e-01 9.500e-01 3.000e-01 5.000e-05 2.000e-01 1.000e-08 2.850e-15

8.000e-01 1.000e-06 1.000e-02 1.000e-06 3.500e-01 9.990e-01 2.797e-15

5.000e-06 5.500e-01 1.000e-08 3.000e-01 9.500e-01 3.500e-01 2.743e-15

9.000e-01 5.000e-09 4.000e-01 5.000e-02 6.000e-01 5.000e-05 2.700e-15

3.000e-01 1.000e-05 1.000e-02 2.000e-01 5.000e-07 8.500e-01 2.550e-15

5.500e-01 5.000e-09 1.000e-05 2.000e-01 9.900e-01 4.500e-01 2.450e-15

9.500e-01 6.000e-01 1.000e-07 5.000e-06 8.500e-01 1.000e-02 2.423e-15

9.500e-01 8.000e-01 5.000e-08 6.000e-01 1.000e-06 1.000e-01 2.280e-15

1.500e-01 5.000e-07 4.000e-01 1.000e-07 9.500e-01 8.000e-01 2.280e-15

2.000e-01 4.500e-01 5.000e-07 1.000e-03 5.000e-03 1.000e-02 2.250e-15

9.990e-01 3.000e-01 5.000e-09 1.000e-02 1.000e-03 1.500e-01 2.248e-15

8.500e-01 5.000e-09 3.000e-01 1.000e-01 5.000e-05 3.500e-01 2.231e-15

5.500e-01 8.000e-01 1.000e-05 1.000e-03 1.000e-02 5.000e-05 2.200e-15

1.000e-06 7.500e-01 5.000e-08 2.000e-01 3.000e-01 9.500e-01 2.138e-15

5.000e-03 9.990e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-05 8.500e-01 1.000e-03 2.123e-15

1.000e-04 6.000e-01 1.000e-02 5.000e-06 1.000e-03 7.000e-01 2.100e-15

4.000e-01 1.000e-06 1.000e-02 1.500e-01 3.500e-01 1.000e-05 2.100e-15

2.500e-01 1.000e-05 5.500e-01 5.000e-02 6.000e-01 5.000e-08 2.063e-15

9.000e-01 6.000e-01 5.000e-05 5.000e-08 3.000e-01 5.000e-03 2.025e-15

3.000e-01 5.000e-06 1.000e-08 3.000e-01 9.990e-01 4.500e-01 2.023e-15

5.000e-05 4.000e-01 1.000e-02 5.000e-06 4.000e-01 5.000e-03 2.000e-15

4.000e-01 1.000e-01 2.000e-01 5.000e-07 1.000e-02 5.000e-05 2.000e-15

5.000e-02 1.000e-02 2.000e-01 5.000e-05 5.000e-07 8.000e-01 2.000e-15

1.000e-03 1.000e-04 6.000e-01 3.500e-01 9.500e-01 1.000e-07 1.995e-15

6.500e-01 5.000e-02 5.000e-07 1.000e-06 3.500e-01 3.500e-01 1.991e-15

1.000e-01 5.000e-05 1.000e-03 6.000e-01 1.000e-06 6.500e-01 1.950e-15

6.500e-01 1.000e-06 2.000e-01 1.000e-06 5.000e-02 3.000e-01 1.950e-15

Page 29: Bureau of Reclamation · Created Date: 11/18/2004 6:27:54 PM

Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 29

Probability of

Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”

8.500e-01 1.000e-04 5.000e-02 3.000e-01 1.500e-01 1.000e-08 1.913e-15

3.000e-01 1.000e-06 3.000e-01 5.000e-02 5.000e-07 8.500e-01 1.913e-15

1.500e-01 5.000e-02 5.000e-07 2.500e-01 4.000e-01 5.000e-06 1.875e-15

4.000e-01 4.000e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-07 4.500e-01 5.000e-03 1.800e-15

1.000e-01 3.500e-01 1.000e-02 5.000e-08 9.900e-01 1.000e-04 1.733e-15

6.500e-01 1.000e-05 6.500e-01 1.000e-02 5.000e-08 8.000e-01 1.690e-15

4.500e-01 1.000e-05 6.000e-01 2.500e-01 5.000e-03 5.000e-07 1.688e-15

1.000e-02 8.500e-01 1.000e-07 4.000e-01 9.500e-01 5.000e-06 1.615e-15

5.000e-09 5.000e-03 1.000e-02 4.000e-01 1.000e-01 1.500e-01 1.500e-15

9.900e-01 6.000e-01 5.000e-02 9.900e-01 5.000e-05 1.000e-09 1.470e-15

1.000e-07 5.000e-06 9.500e-01 9.500e-01 5.000e-03 6.500e-01 1.467e-15

4.000e-01 3.000e-01 5.000e-08 5.000e-03 9.500e-01 5.000e-05 1.425e-15

3.500e-01 5.000e-02 5.000e-08 7.000e-01 4.500e-01 5.000e-06 1.378e-15

1.000e-01 1.000e-06 5.000e-06 5.000e-01 5.500e-01 1.000e-02 1.375e-15

4.000e-01 5.000e-07 3.000e-01 3.000e-01 1.000e-07 7.500e-01 1.350e-15

1.000e-04 8.500e-01 1.000e-03 1.000e-06 3.000e-01 5.000e-02 1.275e-15

9.990e-01 5.000e-07 6.500e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-04 1.218e-15

9.500e-01 1.000e-08 4.000e-01 3.000e-01 9.990e-01 1.000e-06 1.139e-15

2.000e-01 1.000e-05 4.500e-01 5.000e-02 5.000e-04 5.000e-05 1.125e-15

5.000e-03 1.000e-08 7.500e-01 6.000e-01 5.000e-01 1.000e-04 1.125e-15

1.000e-03 5.000e-02 1.000e-08 5.000e-01 4.500e-01 1.000e-02 1.125e-15

1.000e-07 4.000e-01 5.000e-02 1.000e-05 3.500e-01 1.500e-01 1.050e-15

1.000e-08 5.000e-05 1.000e-02 6.000e-01 5.000e-01 7.000e-01 1.050e-15

9.990e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-07 1.000e-03 3.000e-01 6.500e-01 9.740e-16

1.500e-01 5.000e-09 8.500e-01 3.000e-01 9.990e-01 5.000e-06 9.553e-16

9.500e-01 4.000e-01 1.000e-02 5.000e-08 9.900e-01 5.000e-06 9.405e-16

4.000e-01 5.000e-06 9.990e-01 5.000e-06 1.000e-04 9.000e-01 8.991e-16

1.000e-01 1.000e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-07 5.000e-02 3.500e-01 8.750e-16

Page 30: Bureau of Reclamation · Created Date: 11/18/2004 6:27:54 PM

Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 30

Probability of

Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”

8.500e-01 2.000e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e-07 9.990e-01 5.000e-06 8.492e-16

5.000e-03 3.500e-01 5.000e-08 9.900e-01 1.000e-05 9.500e-01 8.229e-16

2.000e-01 6.500e-01 5.000e-05 5.000e-06 5.000e-01 5.000e-05 8.125e-16

1.000e-04 2.500e-01 1.000e-01 5.000e-08 6.500e-01 1.000e-02 8.125e-16

9.500e-01 5.000e-07 7.500e-01 5.000e-09 6.500e-01 7.000e-01 8.105e-16

5.000e-06 5.000e-02 7.500e-01 8.500e-01 1.000e-07 5.000e-02 7.969e-16

8.000e-01 4.000e-01 5.000e-07 1.000e-03 9.900e-01 5.000e-06 7.920e-16

3.000e-01 3.000e-01 1.000e-07 1.000e-06 2.000e-01 4.000e-01 7.200e-16

1.000e-05 4.000e-01 4.500e-01 5.000e-08 8.000e-01 1.000e-02 7.200e-16

1.000e-02 9.000e-01 5.000e-06 5.000e-08 7.000e-01 4.500e-01 7.088e-16

1.000e-05 5.000e-06 9.500e-01 3.500e-01 5.000e-05 8.500e-01 7.066e-16

1.000e-05 7.500e-01 3.000e-01 6.000e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-05 6.750e-16

3.500e-01 1.000e-06 1.500e-01 2.000e-01 1.000e-07 6.000e-01 6.300e-16

1.000e-01 6.500e-01 1.000e-04 1.000e-04 9.000e-01 1.000e-06 5.850e-16

5.000e-06 1.000e-06 3.000e-01 4.000e-01 9.500e-01 1.000e-03 5.700e-16

8.000e-01 1.000e-06 7.500e-01 1.000e-07 9.500e-01 1.000e-02 5.700e-16

7.500e-01 1.000e-01 1.000e-02 5.000e-04 3.000e-01 5.000e-09 5.625e-16

5.000e-05 5.000e-07 8.500e-01 4.000e-01 6.500e-01 1.000e-04 5.525e-16

9.990e-01 5.000e-09 5.000e-06 4.000e-01 1.000e-01 5.500e-01 5.495e-16

1.000e-09 1.000e-05 6.500e-01 4.000e-01 6.500e-01 3.000e-01 5.070e-16

1.000e-01 4.500e-01 5.000e-06 1.000e-02 5.000e-07 4.500e-01 5.063e-16

5.000e-02 5.000e-07 4.500e-01 2.000e-01 5.000e-07 4.500e-01 5.063e-16

1.000e-04 5.000e-09 5.000e-02 4.000e-01 1.000e-01 5.000e-01 5.000e-16

4.000e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e-05 5.000e-07 1.000e-01 2.500e-01 5.000e-16

6.500e-01 4.000e-01 5.000e-08 1.000e-02 5.000e-06 7.500e-01 4.875e-16

5.000e-05 7.500e-01 5.000e-05 6.000e-01 5.000e-07 8.500e-01 4.781e-16

3.000e-01 5.500e-01 6.000e-01 5.000e-06 9.500e-01 1.000e-09 4.703e-16

9.500e-01 5.000e-07 4.500e-01 5.000e-07 8.500e-01 5.000e-03 4.542e-16

Page 31: Bureau of Reclamation · Created Date: 11/18/2004 6:27:54 PM

Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 31

Probability of

Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”

9.500e-01 5.000e-05 1.000e-05 6.000e-01 1.000e-05 1.500e-01 4.275e-16

7.500e-01 6.000e-01 1.000e-07 1.000e-06 1.000e-02 9.500e-01 4.275e-16

3.000e-01 1.000e-05 7.500e-01 3.500e-01 1.000e-01 5.000e-09 3.938e-16

3.000e-01 5.000e-09 9.900e-01 5.000e-06 1.500e-01 3.500e-01 3.898e-16

5.000e-09 3.000e-01 7.500e-01 5.000e-07 8.000e-01 8.500e-01 3.825e-16

9.500e-01 1.000e-04 4.000e-01 4.000e-01 5.000e-07 5.000e-05 3.800e-16

9.990e-01 1.000e-04 1.000e-02 5.000e-08 1.000e-02 7.500e-01 3.746e-16

1.000e-04 3.000e-01 5.000e-06 1.000e-05 3.000e-01 8.000e-01 3.600e-16

8.000e-01 1.000e-06 1.000e-02 9.990e-01 1.000e-07 4.500e-01 3.596e-16

1.000e-08 5.000e-02 2.000e-01 5.000e-04 7.000e-01 1.000e-02 3.500e-16

4.000e-01 5.000e-07 1.500e-01 5.000e-08 6.500e-01 3.500e-01 3.413e-16

8.500e-01 1.000e-08 1.000e-02 5.000e-06 9.900e-01 8.000e-01 3.366e-16

1.000e-09 7.500e-01 1.500e-01 5.000e-06 6.000e-01 9.500e-01 3.206e-16

2.500e-01 1.000e-06 7.500e-01 8.500e-01 2.000e-01 1.000e-08 3.188e-16

5.000e-02 1.500e-01 8.500e-01 5.000e-02 1.000e-07 1.000e-05 3.188e-16

1.000e-06 1.000e-01 4.000e-01 5.000e-08 3.000e-01 5.000e-01 3.000e-16

4.000e-01 3.000e-01 5.000e-06 5.000e-08 9.900e-01 1.000e-02 2.970e-16

3.500e-01 7.500e-01 5.000e-01 5.000e-07 1.000e-08 4.500e-01 2.953e-16

9.000e-01 1.000e-01 1.000e-08 5.000e-05 6.500e-01 1.000e-02 2.925e-16

9.900e-01 5.000e-07 2.500e-01 1.000e-06 4.500e-01 5.000e-03 2.784e-16

1.500e-01 3.500e-01 3.500e-01 1.000e-07 1.000e-06 1.500e-01 2.756e-16

1.000e-02 5.000e-06 5.000e-02 5.500e-01 1.000e-06 2.000e-01 2.750e-16

4.000e-01 5.000e-07 5.000e-08 5.000e-02 5.000e-01 9.900e-01 2.475e-16

1.000e-07 3.000e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-01 1.000e-01 1.000e-06 2.250e-16

5.500e-01 6.000e-01 6.500e-01 1.000e-07 1.000e-06 1.000e-02 2.145e-16

7.000e-01 2.000e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-07 1.000e-07 2.000e-01 2.100e-16

9.500e-01 8.500e-01 1.000e-02 5.000e-08 5.000e-05 1.000e-02 2.019e-16

1.500e-01 5.500e-01 7.500e-01 5.000e-08 6.500e-01 1.000e-07 2.011e-16

Page 32: Bureau of Reclamation · Created Date: 11/18/2004 6:27:54 PM

Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 32

Probability of

Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”

1.000e-01 5.000e-06 6.500e-01 3.000e-01 2.000e-01 1.000e-08 1.950e-16

1.000e-04 5.000e-05 5.000e-07 1.000e-01 8.000e-01 9.500e-01 1.900e-16

5.000e-02 1.000e-03 7.500e-01 9.990e-01 1.000e-07 5.000e-05 1.873e-16

1.000e-04 6.000e-01 1.000e-03 5.000e-08 3.000e-01 2.000e-01 1.800e-16

4.000e-01 1.500e-01 1.000e-03 6.000e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-07 1.800e-16

9.900e-01 7.000e-01 5.000e-06 1.000e-04 5.000e-01 1.000e-06 1.733e-16

5.000e-05 3.000e-01 5.000e-06 5.000e-03 4.500e-01 1.000e-03 1.688e-16

1.000e-02 5.500e-01 2.000e-01 6.000e-01 5.000e-07 5.000e-07 1.650e-16

7.500e-01 5.000e-05 8.500e-01 1.000e-09 5.000e-01 1.000e-02 1.594e-16

3.500e-01 3.000e-01 1.000e-05 3.000e-01 1.000e-07 5.000e-03 1.575e-16

5.000e-06 2.000e-01 7.500e-01 5.000e-07 8.000e-01 5.000e-04 1.500e-16

2.500e-01 1.500e-01 8.000e-01 5.000e-08 1.000e-06 1.000e-01 1.500e-16

9.990e-01 5.000e-09 5.000e-05 1.500e-01 8.000e-01 5.000e-03 1.499e-16

5.000e-05 8.500e-01 1.000e-08 5.000e-01 1.000e-03 7.000e-01 1.488e-16

4.000e-01 1.000e-09 5.000e-01 5.000e-06 9.900e-01 1.500e-01 1.485e-16

9.900e-01 1.000e-09 9.990e-01 2.000e-01 1.000e-06 7.000e-01 1.385e-16

5.000e-06 1.000e-03 5.000e-02 1.000e-05 1.000e-01 5.500e-01 1.375e-16

3.000e-01 5.000e-07 6.000e-01 1.000e-03 3.000e-01 5.000e-06 1.350e-16

5.000e-05 4.000e-01 5.000e-05 1.000e-06 2.000e-01 6.500e-01 1.300e-16

4.000e-01 9.990e-01 6.500e-01 5.000e-08 1.000e-05 1.000e-03 1.299e-16

1.000e-04 5.000e-06 5.000e-06 7.500e-01 1.500e-01 4.500e-01 1.266e-16

4.000e-01 9.000e-01 1.000e-09 1.000e-06 9.500e-01 3.500e-01 1.197e-16

2.000e-01 7.500e-01 6.000e-01 5.000e-07 5.000e-05 5.000e-05 1.125e-16

3.500e-01 1.000e-08 9.500e-01 5.000e-07 4.500e-01 1.500e-01 1.122e-16

2.500e-01 9.500e-01 5.000e-07 1.000e-09 9.500e-01 9.500e-01 1.072e-16

1.000e-08 4.500e-01 6.000e-01 5.000e-06 1.000e-02 7.000e-01 9.450e-17

1.000e-01 7.500e-01 5.000e-08 2.500e-01 5.000e-07 2.000e-01 9.375e-17

9.500e-01 4.500e-01 5.000e-07 1.000e-03 5.000e-07 8.500e-01 9.084e-17

Page 33: Bureau of Reclamation · Created Date: 11/18/2004 6:27:54 PM

Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 33

Probability of

Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”

4.000e-01 8.500e-01 2.500e-01 5.000e-07 4.000e-01 5.000e-09 8.500e-17

6.500e-01 6.500e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-06 8.000e-01 5.000e-06 8.450e-17

5.000e-01 1.000e-05 7.500e-01 9.000e-01 5.000e-05 5.000e-07 8.438e-17

7.500e-01 6.000e-01 7.500e-01 5.000e-08 5.000e-01 1.000e-08 8.438e-17

9.500e-01 1.000e-08 1.000e-02 5.000e-06 5.000e-01 3.500e-01 8.313e-17

1.000e-05 5.500e-01 5.000e-01 6.000e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-06 8.250e-17

5.000e-03 6.500e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e-03 5.000e-05 5.000e-05 8.125e-17

1.000e-01 8.000e-01 5.000e-08 5.000e-06 1.000e-02 3.500e-01 7.000e-17

1.000e-09 6.000e-01 3.000e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-01 5.000e-06 6.750e-17

6.000e-01 1.000e-09 5.000e-01 5.000e-02 4.500e-01 1.000e-05 6.750e-17

8.500e-01 4.500e-01 5.000e-07 2.000e-01 3.500e-01 5.000e-09 6.694e-17

5.000e-02 5.000e-02 5.000e-08 5.000e-06 1.000e-01 9.900e-01 6.188e-17

1.000e-06 2.500e-01 5.000e-07 9.900e-01 1.000e-01 5.000e-03 6.188e-17

5.500e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e-08 3.000e-01 5.000e-06 6.188e-17

1.000e-01 1.000e-03 1.000e-08 1.000e-04 9.500e-01 6.500e-01 6.175e-17

1.000e-03 6.000e-01 5.000e-06 1.000e-06 2.000e-01 1.000e-01 6.000e-17

4.000e-01 3.500e-01 1.000e-07 8.500e-01 1.000e-03 5.000e-06 5.950e-17

1.000e-05 1.000e-01 2.000e-01 9.900e-01 3.000e-01 1.000e-09 5.940e-17

1.000e-02 5.000e-05 1.000e-02 1.000e-07 7.500e-01 1.500e-01 5.625e-17

1.000e-07 8.500e-01 6.500e-01 5.000e-07 2.000e-01 1.000e-02 5.525e-17

8.500e-01 5.000e-09 7.000e-01 3.500e-01 5.000e-01 1.000e-07 5.206e-17

5.000e-06 4.500e-01 1.000e-06 9.000e-01 5.000e-05 5.000e-01 5.063e-17

4.000e-01 5.000e-07 1.000e-02 5.000e-05 1.000e-01 5.000e-03 5.000e-17

9.900e-01 5.000e-02 5.000e-08 5.000e-06 1.000e-02 4.000e-01 4.950e-17

9.000e-01 1.000e-05 1.000e-05 3.500e-01 1.000e-05 1.500e-01 4.725e-17

4.500e-01 2.000e-01 5.000e-08 5.000e-02 2.000e-01 1.000e-06 4.500e-17

8.000e-01 5.000e-07 4.500e-01 5.000e-01 1.000e-02 5.000e-08 4.500e-17

5.000e-05 5.000e-05 7.500e-01 5.000e-07 9.500e-01 5.000e-02 4.453e-17

Page 34: Bureau of Reclamation · Created Date: 11/18/2004 6:27:54 PM

Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 34

Probability of

Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”

5.000e-02 1.000e-04 2.500e-01 1.000e-07 1.000e-03 3.500e-01 4.375e-17

3.500e-01 5.000e-05 5.000e-06 5.000e-03 9.900e-01 1.000e-04 4.331e-17

1.000e-05 8.500e-01 1.000e-08 2.000e-01 5.000e-01 5.000e-03 4.250e-17

5.000e-02 5.000e-07 5.000e-04 1.000e-05 4.500e-01 7.500e-01 4.219e-17

5.000e-05 1.000e-05 7.500e-01 2.500e-01 1.000e-06 4.500e-01 4.219e-17

5.000e-06 8.500e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e-05 1.000e-04 9.900e-01 4.208e-17

3.500e-01 1.000e-06 1.000e-09 4.000e-01 9.990e-01 3.000e-01 4.196e-17

3.000e-01 5.000e-09 6.500e-01 1.000e-07 6.500e-01 6.500e-01 4.119e-17

1.000e-08 1.000e-07 1.500e-01 7.000e-01 7.500e-01 4.500e-01 3.544e-17

5.000e-06 1.000e-05 5.000e-01 5.000e-06 3.500e-01 8.000e-01 3.500e-17

5.000e-06 4.000e-01 7.000e-01 5.000e-08 1.000e-01 5.000e-03 3.500e-17

1.500e-01 1.000e-08 5.000e-06 8.000e-01 5.500e-01 1.000e-02 3.300e-17

9.500e-01 5.000e-07 1.000e-03 1.000e-07 8.000e-01 8.500e-01 3.230e-17

4.500e-01 1.000e-09 2.000e-01 5.000e-02 1.000e-05 7.000e-01 3.150e-17

3.500e-01 5.000e-02 5.000e-08 9.000e-01 5.000e-08 8.000e-01 3.150e-17

9.900e-01 7.500e-01 7.500e-01 5.000e-08 1.000e-09 9.900e-01 2.757e-17

1.500e-01 4.500e-01 1.000e-09 1.000e-06 5.000e-01 7.500e-01 2.531e-17

2.000e-01 5.000e-02 5.000e-04 1.000e-09 5.000e-02 1.000e-01 2.500e-17

5.500e-01 1.000e-08 2.000e-01 5.000e-06 5.000e-03 9.000e-01 2.475e-17

9.990e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-08 5.000e-02 1.000e-03 9.900e-01 2.473e-17

9.900e-01 5.000e-06 9.990e-01 5.000e-04 1.000e-03 1.000e-05 2.473e-17

6.500e-01 6.000e-01 1.000e-07 2.500e-01 5.000e-07 5.000e-03 2.438e-17

6.500e-01 9.990e-01 5.000e-08 1.000e-08 3.000e-01 2.500e-01 2.435e-17

4.000e-01 1.000e-06 5.000e-01 1.500e-01 1.000e-09 8.000e-01 2.400e-17

4.000e-01 8.500e-01 1.000e-08 5.000e-08 2.000e-01 7.000e-01 2.380e-17

9.000e-01 1.000e-06 5.000e-06 5.000e-02 1.000e-01 1.000e-03 2.250e-17

1.000e-02 8.500e-01 1.000e-09 5.000e-06 7.500e-01 7.000e-01 2.231e-17

1.500e-01 6.500e-01 5.000e-08 1.000e-06 9.000e-01 5.000e-03 2.194e-17

Page 35: Bureau of Reclamation · Created Date: 11/18/2004 6:27:54 PM

Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 35

Probability of

Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”

1.500e-01 3.000e-01 1.000e-02 5.000e-08 9.500e-01 1.000e-06 2.138e-17

1.000e-01 8.500e-01 5.000e-08 9.990e-01 1.000e-01 5.000e-08 2.123e-17

1.500e-01 9.500e-01 5.000e-07 3.000e-01 9.900e-01 1.000e-09 2.116e-17

5.500e-01 1.000e-08 6.000e-01 5.000e-06 2.500e-01 5.000e-03 2.063e-17

3.000e-01 1.000e-05 4.500e-01 1.500e-01 1.000e-08 1.000e-02 2.025e-17

3.500e-01 3.500e-01 5.000e-04 1.000e-07 6.500e-01 5.000e-06 1.991e-17

9.990e-01 3.000e-01 6.500e-01 1.000e-09 9.900e-01 1.000e-07 1.929e-17

5.000e-05 4.000e-01 5.000e-08 7.000e-01 5.500e-01 5.000e-05 1.925e-17

1.000e-02 4.000e-01 9.500e-01 5.000e-09 1.000e-06 9.900e-01 1.881e-17

3.000e-01 5.000e-06 5.000e-02 1.000e-06 2.500e-01 1.000e-03 1.875e-17

9.990e-01 5.000e-02 7.500e-01 1.000e-03 5.000e-04 1.000e-09 1.873e-17

3.000e-01 7.500e-01 6.500e-01 5.000e-07 5.000e-02 5.000e-09 1.828e-17

1.000e-02 4.000e-01 1.000e-05 1.000e-02 4.500e-01 1.000e-07 1.800e-17

4.000e-01 1.000e-04 5.500e-01 5.000e-05 3.000e-01 5.000e-08 1.650e-17

1.000e-09 1.000e-03 5.000e-05 3.500e-01 9.500e-01 9.900e-01 1.646e-17

5.000e-03 1.000e-04 1.000e-05 7.500e-01 5.000e-06 8.500e-01 1.594e-17

9.900e-01 1.000e-01 1.000e-09 1.000e-06 4.000e-01 4.000e-01 1.584e-17

6.000e-01 1.000e-04 5.000e-01 5.000e-05 1.000e-05 1.000e-03 1.500e-17

1.000e-08 5.000e-02 1.000e-02 1.000e-05 3.500e-01 8.500e-01 1.488e-17

5.000e-05 3.500e-01 1.000e-08 2.000e-01 5.000e-04 8.500e-01 1.488e-17

5.000e-09 9.990e-01 3.000e-01 1.000e-07 6.500e-01 1.500e-01 1.461e-17

4.000e-01 5.000e-09 1.000e-07 3.000e-01 3.000e-01 7.500e-01 1.350e-17

4.000e-01 1.000e-06 5.000e-06 5.000e-05 3.000e-01 4.500e-01 1.350e-17

1.500e-01 9.000e-01 1.000e-03 1.000e-06 1.000e-05 1.000e-02 1.350e-17

3.000e-01 1.000e-08 9.900e-01 3.000e-01 1.000e-07 1.500e-01 1.337e-17

1.000e-08 1.000e-03 9.990e-01 5.000e-02 5.000e-05 5.000e-01 1.249e-17

5.000e-09 5.000e-07 5.000e-02 1.500e-01 9.990e-01 6.500e-01 1.218e-17

9.000e-01 1.000e-06 7.500e-01 5.000e-06 1.000e-05 3.500e-01 1.181e-17

Page 36: Bureau of Reclamation · Created Date: 11/18/2004 6:27:54 PM

Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 36

Probability of

Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”

1.000e-08 8.500e-01 5.500e-01 5.000e-09 6.500e-01 7.500e-01 1.140e-17

1.000e-05 5.000e-03 5.000e-02 4.500e-01 1.000e-08 9.900e-01 1.114e-17

5.500e-01 1.000e-01 5.000e-08 4.000e-01 1.000e-07 1.000e-01 1.100e-17

1.000e-08 4.500e-01 1.000e-08 4.000e-01 6.000e-01 9.900e-01 1.069e-17

1.500e-01 5.000e-07 1.000e-04 3.000e-01 9.500e-01 5.000e-06 1.069e-17

4.000e-01 1.000e-01 5.000e-05 1.000e-06 1.000e-01 5.000e-05 1.000e-17

1.000e-04 5.000e-06 2.000e-01 5.000e-05 5.000e-03 4.000e-01 1.000e-17

7.500e-01 7.000e-01 9.500e-01 5.000e-08 1.000e-09 4.000e-01 9.975e-18

7.500e-01 5.000e-07 1.000e-09 3.500e-01 3.000e-01 2.500e-01 9.844e-18

6.500e-01 7.500e-01 5.000e-08 1.000e-05 7.500e-01 5.000e-05 9.141e-18

5.000e-05 5.000e-07 1.000e-04 5.000e-03 9.500e-01 7.500e-01 8.906e-18

9.990e-01 7.000e-01 5.000e-04 5.000e-07 5.000e-02 1.000e-06 8.741e-18

2.000e-01 5.000e-07 1.000e-02 5.000e-08 2.000e-01 8.500e-01 8.500e-18

2.000e-01 8.000e-01 5.000e-08 5.000e-08 2.000e-01 1.000e-01 8.000e-18

1.000e-07 4.000e-01 4.000e-01 1.000e-05 9.990e-01 5.000e-05 7.992e-18

1.000e-01 5.000e-09 4.500e-01 7.000e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-03 7.875e-18

1.000e-03 6.000e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-08 3.500e-01 5.000e-06 7.875e-18

1.000e-05 6.000e-01 5.000e-08 5.000e-04 5.000e-01 1.000e-01 7.500e-18

5.000e-01 3.000e-01 1.000e-07 1.000e-02 1.000e-01 5.000e-07 7.500e-18

1.000e-03 4.000e-01 5.000e-02 5.000e-06 1.000e-07 7.500e-01 7.500e-18

8.500e-01 1.000e-06 1.000e-01 8.000e-01 1.000e-04 1.000e-06 6.800e-18

1.000e-09 4.500e-01 1.000e-05 9.900e-01 3.000e-01 5.000e-03 6.683e-18

1.000e-09 4.500e-01 7.500e-01 5.000e-08 4.000e-01 9.900e-01 6.683e-18

5.000e-06 3.500e-01 5.000e-06 3.000e-01 5.000e-01 5.000e-06 6.563e-18

5.000e-05 1.000e-09 6.500e-01 1.000e-02 4.000e-01 5.000e-02 6.500e-18

5.000e-05 5.000e-09 9.990e-01 5.000e-03 5.000e-03 9.990e-01 6.238e-18

9.500e-01 5.000e-07 1.000e-05 2.000e-01 1.000e-05 6.500e-01 6.175e-18

3.000e-01 4.000e-01 5.000e-09 4.500e-01 5.000e-08 4.500e-01 6.075e-18

Page 37: Bureau of Reclamation · Created Date: 11/18/2004 6:27:54 PM

Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 37

Probability of

Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”

4.000e-01 4.000e-01 5.000e-09 1.500e-01 1.000e-02 5.000e-06 6.000e-18

4.000e-01 3.000e-01 5.000e-06 1.000e-08 9.500e-01 1.000e-03 5.700e-18

5.000e-03 6.000e-01 5.000e-04 1.000e-05 5.000e-07 7.500e-01 5.625e-18

2.500e-01 5.000e-07 2.000e-01 5.000e-05 1.000e-05 4.500e-01 5.625e-18

5.500e-01 5.000e-05 5.000e-04 1.000e-06 4.000e-01 1.000e-03 5.500e-18

4.000e-01 4.500e-01 5.000e-08 7.500e-01 5.000e-09 1.500e-01 5.063e-18

4.000e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-05 1.000e-03 5.000e-04 5.000e-02 5.000e-18

5.000e-06 5.000e-02 1.000e-04 7.500e-01 5.000e-05 5.000e-03 4.688e-18

5.000e-09 9.000e-01 5.000e-07 1.000e-01 4.000e-01 5.000e-02 4.500e-18

5.000e-05 9.990e-01 1.000e-09 1.000e-02 9.000e-01 1.000e-02 4.496e-18

4.500e-01 1.000e-04 9.990e-01 1.000e-06 9.500e-01 1.000e-07 4.271e-18

2.500e-01 6.500e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-06 1.000e-03 5.000e-04 4.063e-18

1.000e-09 5.000e-07 9.500e-01 5.000e-02 8.500e-01 2.000e-01 4.038e-18

5.000e-05 5.000e-02 4.500e-01 1.000e-06 5.000e-06 7.000e-01 3.938e-18

1.500e-01 1.000e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e-07 5.000e-03 5.000e-05 3.750e-18

5.000e-06 1.000e-04 7.500e-01 5.000e-08 2.000e-01 9.900e-01 3.713e-18

9.990e-01 8.500e-01 5.000e-08 1.000e-03 1.000e-07 8.500e-01 3.609e-18

1.000e-03 5.000e-07 2.500e-01 8.000e-01 5.000e-08 7.000e-01 3.500e-18

1.000e-05 9.990e-01 1.000e-06 7.000e-01 1.000e-01 5.000e-06 3.497e-18

3.500e-01 5.000e-09 4.000e-01 9.000e-01 5.500e-01 1.000e-08 3.465e-18

1.500e-01 5.000e-05 4.000e-01 5.000e-06 5.000e-07 4.500e-01 3.375e-18

8.000e-01 6.000e-01 5.000e-08 2.000e-01 1.000e-09 7.000e-01 3.360e-18

5.000e-06 8.000e-01 5.000e-05 5.000e-01 5.000e-08 6.500e-01 3.250e-18

1.000e-07 2.500e-01 4.000e-01 1.000e-03 5.000e-07 6.500e-01 3.250e-18

3.000e-01 1.000e-09 6.500e-01 3.500e-01 9.500e-01 5.000e-08 3.242e-18

5.500e-01 1.500e-01 1.000e-07 1.500e-01 5.000e-04 5.000e-06 3.094e-18

7.500e-01 1.000e-08 7.500e-01 5.000e-02 1.000e-01 1.000e-07 2.813e-18

2.500e-01 6.000e-01 5.000e-08 1.000e-05 7.500e-01 5.000e-05 2.813e-18

Page 38: Bureau of Reclamation · Created Date: 11/18/2004 6:27:54 PM

Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 38

Probability of

Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”

3.000e-01 8.000e-01 5.000e-08 1.000e-07 4.500e-01 5.000e-03 2.700e-18

5.000e-03 7.500e-01 5.000e-07 4.000e-01 1.000e-08 3.500e-01 2.625e-18

1.500e-01 4.000e-01 5.000e-05 1.000e-06 1.000e-06 8.500e-01 2.550e-18

5.000e-05 1.000e-07 4.500e-01 5.000e-05 4.500e-01 5.000e-02 2.531e-18

9.500e-01 5.000e-09 5.000e-01 1.000e-06 5.000e-03 2.000e-01 2.375e-18

9.000e-01 1.000e-02 5.000e-08 7.500e-01 1.000e-08 7.000e-01 2.363e-18

1.000e-05 1.000e-06 7.000e-01 1.500e-01 4.500e-01 5.000e-06 2.363e-18

1.000e-02 5.000e-06 5.000e-04 7.500e-01 5.000e-07 2.500e-01 2.344e-18

4.000e-01 5.000e-05 5.000e-02 1.000e-07 4.500e-01 5.000e-05 2.250e-18

1.500e-01 1.000e-07 5.000e-02 1.000e-03 5.000e-06 6.000e-01 2.250e-18

1.000e-02 1.000e-05 7.500e-01 3.000e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e-08 2.250e-18

8.000e-01 1.000e-07 1.000e-09 2.000e-01 3.500e-01 4.000e-01 2.240e-18

5.000e-02 5.000e-04 5.000e-07 1.000e-03 3.500e-01 5.000e-04 2.188e-18

9.500e-01 6.500e-01 7.000e-01 1.000e-07 1.000e-05 5.000e-06 2.161e-18

4.000e-01 8.500e-01 5.000e-09 5.000e-07 5.000e-01 5.000e-03 2.125e-18

1.000e-05 4.000e-01 5.000e-07 3.000e-01 1.000e-05 3.500e-01 2.100e-18

5.000e-06 6.000e-01 1.000e-02 5.000e-05 5.000e-06 2.500e-01 1.875e-18

1.000e-05 1.000e-01 1.500e-01 5.000e-04 5.000e-04 5.000e-05 1.875e-18

5.000e-06 5.000e-03 2.500e-01 1.500e-01 1.000e-08 2.000e-01 1.875e-18

5.000e-05 1.500e-01 5.000e-02 5.000e-08 1.000e-02 1.000e-02 1.875e-18

5.000e-06 1.000e-03 5.000e-08 3.000e-01 1.000e-01 2.500e-01 1.875e-18

3.000e-01 5.000e-09 9.900e-01 2.500e-01 1.000e-07 5.000e-02 1.856e-18

1.000e-01 1.000e-09 5.000e-08 5.500e-01 9.500e-01 7.000e-01 1.829e-18

1.000e-05 3.000e-01 6.500e-01 9.000e-01 1.000e-09 1.000e-03 1.755e-18

5.500e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-07 1.000e-06 5.000e-05 8.500e-01 1.753e-18

1.000e-07 1.000e-09 8.500e-01 9.990e-01 2.000e-01 1.000e-01 1.698e-18

1.000e-09 1.000e-05 5.000e-01 5.000e-03 4.500e-01 1.500e-01 1.688e-18

5.500e-01 6.000e-01 5.000e-07 9.900e-01 1.000e-07 1.000e-04 1.634e-18

Page 39: Bureau of Reclamation · Created Date: 11/18/2004 6:27:54 PM

Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 39

Probability of

Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”

1.000e-06 1.000e-07 1.000e-02 6.500e-01 1.000e-02 2.500e-01 1.625e-18

9.990e-01 8.500e-01 5.000e-08 1.500e-01 5.000e-06 5.000e-05 1.592e-18

1.500e-01 1.000e-04 1.000e-04 1.000e-01 2.000e-01 5.000e-08 1.500e-18

4.000e-01 5.000e-07 1.000e-06 3.000e-01 5.000e-05 5.000e-01 1.500e-18

1.000e-05 1.500e-01 5.000e-04 1.000e-08 9.900e-01 2.000e-01 1.485e-18

1.000e-08 8.500e-01 4.000e-01 1.000e-03 5.000e-07 8.500e-01 1.445e-18

9.500e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-07 1.000e-03 3.000e-01 1.000e-03 1.425e-18

1.000e-09 1.000e-08 8.000e-01 2.500e-01 9.900e-01 7.000e-01 1.386e-18

1.000e-05 5.500e-01 5.000e-04 5.000e-02 9.500e-01 1.000e-08 1.306e-18

5.000e-02 2.000e-01 5.000e-08 5.000e-01 5.000e-07 1.000e-02 1.250e-18

2.500e-01 5.000e-07 5.000e-08 5.000e-04 4.000e-01 9.900e-01 1.238e-18

5.000e-02 1.000e-05 6.500e-01 5.000e-05 5.000e-07 1.500e-01 1.219e-18

1.000e-07 5.000e-06 6.000e-01 1.000e-03 8.000e-01 5.000e-03 1.200e-18

1.000e-04 8.000e-01 5.000e-09 1.000e-05 3.500e-01 8.500e-01 1.190e-18

5.000e-03 1.000e-04 5.000e-02 1.000e-09 9.500e-01 5.000e-02 1.188e-18

9.500e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-03 5.000e-02 1.000e-07 5.000e-03 1.188e-18

4.000e-01 1.000e-09 5.000e-08 4.000e-01 9.500e-01 1.500e-01 1.140e-18

9.500e-01 9.500e-01 5.000e-08 5.000e-08 5.000e-04 9.990e-01 1.127e-18

1.000e-07 5.000e-02 7.500e-01 6.000e-01 1.000e-06 5.000e-04 1.125e-18

7.500e-01 1.000e-07 3.000e-01 5.000e-06 9.500e-01 1.000e-05 1.069e-18

5.000e-06 5.000e-07 5.000e-05 8.500e-01 2.000e-01 5.000e-02 1.063e-18

1.000e-09 1.000e-04 1.500e-01 1.000e-03 1.000e-01 7.000e-01 1.050e-18

1.500e-01 3.500e-01 5.000e-08 6.000e-01 1.000e-09 6.500e-01 1.024e-18

1.000e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-05 5.000e-05 4.000e-01 1.000e-03 1.000e-18

1.000e-03 1.000e-03 1.000e-03 1.000e-03 1.000e-03 1.000e-03 1.000e-18

5.000e-05 5.000e-04 8.500e-01 5.000e-06 9.000e-01 1.000e-05 9.563e-19

1.000e-03 1.000e-04 9.500e-01 1.000e-03 9.900e-01 1.000e-08 9.405e-19

5.000e-09 1.000e-01 7.500e-01 9.900e-01 5.000e-05 5.000e-05 9.281e-19

Page 40: Bureau of Reclamation · Created Date: 11/18/2004 6:27:54 PM

Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 40

Probability of

Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”

1.500e-01 3.000e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-06 5.000e-07 8.000e-01 9.000e-19

1.000e-03 4.500e-01 5.000e-08 5.000e-06 1.000e-02 8.000e-01 9.000e-19

3.000e-01 5.000e-07 5.000e-05 5.000e-06 1.500e-01 1.500e-01 8.438e-19

5.000e-06 5.000e-06 6.500e-01 2.500e-01 5.000e-07 4.000e-01 8.125e-19

5.000e-02 4.000e-01 5.000e-06 1.000e-03 8.000e-01 1.000e-08 8.000e-19

1.000e-09 1.000e-07 2.500e-01 3.500e-01 1.000e-01 9.000e-01 7.875e-19

4.500e-01 3.500e-01 1.000e-08 5.000e-06 9.900e-01 1.000e-04 7.796e-19

1.000e-04 1.000e-03 2.000e-01 5.000e-04 7.500e-01 1.000e-07 7.500e-19

1.000e-08 4.500e-01 2.000e-01 1.000e-09 9.500e-01 8.500e-01 7.268e-19

6.500e-01 5.000e-07 4.500e-01 5.000e-06 9.900e-01 1.000e-06 7.239e-19

5.000e-01 3.500e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e-08 4.000e-01 1.000e-07 7.000e-19

5.500e-01 2.500e-01 1.000e-08 5.000e-02 9.990e-01 1.000e-08 6.868e-19

1.500e-01 4.500e-01 5.000e-08 2.000e-01 1.000e-01 1.000e-08 6.750e-19

1.000e-05 1.000e-05 6.000e-01 2.500e-01 1.000e-07 4.500e-01 6.750e-19

5.000e-05 9.000e-01 5.000e-06 1.000e-02 1.000e-06 3.000e-01 6.750e-19

3.500e-01 5.000e-09 1.000e-07 1.000e-02 4.500e-01 8.500e-01 6.694e-19

1.000e-03 1.000e-08 4.000e-01 3.500e-01 9.500e-01 5.000e-07 6.650e-19

1.000e-07 5.000e-06 1.000e-04 1.500e-01 3.500e-01 2.500e-01 6.563e-19

1.000e-06 7.000e-01 7.500e-01 5.000e-06 5.000e-05 5.000e-03 6.563e-19

5.000e-01 1.000e-05 1.500e-01 1.000e-07 1.000e-05 8.500e-01 6.375e-19

1.000e-08 6.500e-01 6.500e-01 3.000e-01 1.000e-07 5.000e-03 6.338e-19

1.000e-01 5.000e-02 5.000e-02 5.000e-04 5.000e-09 1.000e-03 6.250e-19

5.000e-05 5.000e-07 2.000e-01 3.500e-01 1.000e-06 3.500e-01 6.125e-19

1.000e-05 1.000e-06 4.000e-01 5.000e-06 2.000e-01 1.500e-01 6.000e-19

5.000e-05 6.000e-01 8.500e-01 1.000e-08 4.500e-01 5.000e-06 5.738e-19

1.000e-05 5.000e-07 3.000e-01 5.000e-04 7.500e-01 1.000e-03 5.625e-19

7.500e-01 6.000e-01 5.000e-08 1.000e-03 5.000e-07 5.000e-02 5.625e-19

8.000e-01 1.500e-01 5.000e-06 1.000e-05 1.000e-07 9.000e-01 5.400e-19

Page 41: Bureau of Reclamation · Created Date: 11/18/2004 6:27:54 PM

Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 41

Probability of

Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”

5.000e-05 5.000e-07 1.000e-02 5.000e-06 9.500e-01 4.500e-01 5.344e-19

1.500e-01 5.500e-01 5.000e-02 5.000e-07 5.000e-05 5.000e-06 5.156e-19

1.000e-03 9.990e-01 8.500e-01 6.000e-01 1.000e-07 1.000e-08 5.095e-19

5.000e-02 4.500e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-09 4.500e-01 1.000e-03 5.063e-19

1.000e-09 7.500e-01 3.000e-01 9.000e-01 5.000e-05 5.000e-05 5.063e-19

4.000e-01 5.000e-05 2.000e-01 1.000e-06 5.000e-07 2.500e-01 5.000e-19

1.000e-04 5.000e-07 5.000e-01 8.000e-01 5.000e-01 5.000e-08 5.000e-19

9.900e-01 1.000e-06 2.000e-01 5.000e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-07 4.950e-19

1.000e-01 1.000e-03 5.000e-07 1.000e-06 9.900e-01 1.000e-02 4.950e-19

1.000e-03 5.000e-07 2.000e-01 1.000e-04 9.500e-01 5.000e-05 4.750e-19

5.000e-05 1.000e-03 5.000e-05 7.500e-01 5.000e-03 5.000e-05 4.688e-19

4.000e-01 6.000e-01 5.000e-05 5.000e-06 7.500e-01 1.000e-08 4.500e-19

9.990e-01 1.000e-09 6.000e-01 7.500e-01 9.990e-01 1.000e-09 4.491e-19

1.500e-01 5.000e-07 1.000e-08 1.000e-03 9.900e-01 6.000e-01 4.455e-19

3.500e-01 5.000e-06 5.000e-02 1.000e-07 5.000e-03 1.000e-02 4.375e-19

1.000e-04 1.000e-01 5.000e-02 1.000e-07 1.000e-05 8.500e-01 4.250e-19

9.990e-01 8.500e-01 1.000e-05 1.000e-05 5.000e-07 1.000e-02 4.246e-19

5.000e-01 4.500e-01 5.000e-02 5.000e-08 1.500e-01 5.000e-09 4.219e-19

1.500e-01 5.000e-07 3.000e-01 7.500e-01 5.000e-07 5.000e-05 4.219e-19

5.000e-04 5.000e-09 5.000e-06 1.500e-01 4.500e-01 4.500e-01 3.797e-19

9.000e-01 1.000e-09 5.000e-08 2.000e-01 1.000e-01 4.000e-01 3.600e-19

1.000e-02 5.000e-07 9.500e-01 1.000e-07 7.500e-01 1.000e-03 3.563e-19

6.500e-01 8.500e-01 5.000e-06 5.000e-08 5.000e-05 5.000e-02 3.453e-19

2.500e-01 1.000e-08 8.500e-01 5.000e-07 6.500e-01 5.000e-04 3.453e-19

1.000e-04 1.000e-09 2.000e-01 7.500e-01 4.500e-01 5.000e-05 3.375e-19

9.500e-01 1.000e-06 1.000e-05 2.000e-01 5.000e-07 3.500e-01 3.325e-19

5.000e-07 1.000e-03 7.500e-01 1.000e-08 8.500e-01 1.000e-01 3.188e-19

1.000e-08 3.500e-01 4.000e-01 5.000e-03 9.000e-01 5.000e-08 3.150e-19

Page 42: Bureau of Reclamation · Created Date: 11/18/2004 6:27:54 PM

Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 42

Probability of

Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”

4.000e-01 5.000e-07 1.000e-08 7.000e-01 4.000e-01 5.000e-04 2.800e-19

5.000e-05 6.000e-01 2.000e-01 1.000e-08 4.500e-01 1.000e-05 2.700e-19

1.000e-01 5.000e-02 9.500e-01 1.000e-09 1.000e-07 5.500e-01 2.613e-19

1.000e-08 1.500e-01 1.000e-08 1.000e-01 8.000e-01 2.000e-01 2.400e-19

1.000e-02 1.000e-05 1.000e-05 3.000e-01 8.000e-01 1.000e-06 2.400e-19

1.000e-04 4.500e-01 1.000e-05 1.000e-08 2.000e-01 2.500e-01 2.250e-19

5.000e-06 3.000e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-05 4.000e-01 5.000e-08 2.250e-19

1.000e-07 4.500e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-01 9.500e-01 1.000e-06 2.138e-19

9.990e-01 5.000e-07 1.000e-05 8.500e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-03 2.123e-19

1.000e-09 1.000e-05 1.000e-03 5.000e-02 6.500e-01 6.000e-01 1.950e-19

9.000e-01 1.000e-02 4.500e-01 5.000e-08 9.500e-01 1.000e-09 1.924e-19

5.500e-01 1.000e-06 4.500e-01 1.000e-03 7.500e-01 1.000e-09 1.856e-19

1.000e-07 4.500e-01 9.990e-01 1.000e-06 5.000e-06 8.000e-01 1.798e-19

5.500e-01 1.000e-05 1.000e-05 1.000e-06 6.500e-01 5.000e-03 1.788e-19

1.000e-01 1.000e-01 3.500e-01 5.000e-08 1.000e-09 9.900e-01 1.733e-19

5.000e-09 6.000e-01 1.500e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-07 5.000e-03 1.688e-19

7.500e-01 8.500e-01 1.000e-05 1.000e-06 5.000e-07 5.000e-02 1.594e-19

1.000e-05 7.500e-01 5.000e-06 5.000e-08 8.000e-01 1.000e-01 1.500e-19

2.500e-01 5.000e-07 7.500e-01 6.000e-01 5.000e-07 5.000e-06 1.406e-19

5.000e-08 1.000e-05 5.000e-02 8.000e-01 7.000e-01 1.000e-05 1.400e-19

5.000e-05 8.500e-01 5.000e-09 2.500e-01 5.000e-04 5.000e-03 1.328e-19

3.500e-01 1.000e-09 5.000e-06 5.000e-02 1.500e-01 1.000e-02 1.313e-19

5.000e-06 1.000e-04 6.500e-01 5.000e-08 8.000e-01 1.000e-02 1.300e-19

9.990e-01 5.000e-07 1.000e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-01 5.000e-07 1.249e-19

9.500e-01 5.500e-01 5.000e-09 5.000e-08 1.000e-03 9.500e-01 1.241e-19

1.000e-04 7.000e-01 2.000e-01 5.000e-07 5.000e-08 3.500e-01 1.225e-19

8.500e-01 1.000e-05 9.500e-01 1.000e-08 1.000e-05 1.500e-01 1.211e-19

3.000e-01 1.000e-04 8.000e-01 5.000e-03 1.000e-09 1.000e-03 1.200e-19

Page 43: Bureau of Reclamation · Created Date: 11/18/2004 6:27:54 PM

Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 43

Probability of

Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”

1.000e-09 6.000e-01 4.000e-01 1.000e-02 9.900e-01 5.000e-08 1.188e-19

5.000e-02 1.000e-09 5.000e-03 1.000e-05 4.500e-01 1.000e-01 1.125e-19

1.000e-02 1.000e-04 7.500e-01 1.000e-06 1.000e-06 1.500e-01 1.125e-19

3.000e-01 3.000e-01 5.000e-04 5.000e-07 1.000e-05 5.000e-04 1.125e-19

9.990e-01 1.500e-01 3.000e-01 5.000e-08 1.000e-05 5.000e-06 1.124e-19

1.000e-08 4.500e-01 5.000e-08 5.000e-03 6.500e-01 1.500e-01 1.097e-19

9.500e-01 5.000e-09 7.500e-01 6.000e-01 5.000e-06 1.000e-05 1.069e-19

1.000e-05 1.000e-01 3.000e-01 7.000e-01 5.000e-09 1.000e-04 1.050e-19

5.000e-05 1.000e-04 1.000e-05 4.000e-01 1.000e-01 5.000e-05 1.000e-19

4.000e-01 5.000e-06 1.000e-02 9.900e-01 1.000e-06 5.000e-06 9.900e-20

4.000e-01 1.000e-09 7.500e-01 1.000e-04 6.500e-01 5.000e-06 9.750e-20

9.990e-01 5.000e-09 1.000e-02 3.000e-01 1.000e-08 6.500e-01 9.740e-20

1.000e-09 5.000e-05 2.000e-01 2.000e-01 9.500e-01 5.000e-05 9.500e-20

9.500e-01 9.500e-01 4.000e-01 5.000e-06 5.000e-08 1.000e-06 9.025e-20

5.000e-06 1.000e-05 1.000e-02 5.000e-07 9.990e-01 3.500e-01 8.741e-20

5.000e-06 1.000e-08 7.500e-01 5.000e-06 4.500e-01 9.900e-01 8.353e-20

4.000e-01 4.000e-01 1.000e-05 1.000e-07 9.500e-01 5.000e-07 7.600e-20

5.500e-01 8.500e-01 5.000e-06 1.000e-05 5.000e-09 6.500e-01 7.597e-20

5.000e-05 5.000e-07 5.000e-08 2.000e-01 4.000e-01 7.500e-01 7.500e-20

2.500e-01 4.000e-01 1.000e-07 1.000e-06 1.500e-01 5.000e-05 7.500e-20

9.990e-01 5.000e-09 7.500e-01 1.000e-06 4.000e-01 5.000e-05 7.493e-20

3.000e-01 1.000e-06 1.000e-04 5.000e-07 5.000e-03 9.990e-01 7.493e-20

3.500e-01 1.000e-07 5.000e-05 5.000e-05 7.500e-01 1.000e-03 6.563e-20

5.000e-03 1.000e-08 7.500e-01 5.000e-08 1.000e-01 3.500e-01 6.563e-20

1.000e-01 3.500e-01 7.500e-01 5.000e-06 1.000e-07 5.000e-06 6.563e-20

5.000e-05 4.500e-01 7.500e-01 5.000e-07 1.500e-01 5.000e-08 6.328e-20

9.500e-01 7.000e-01 5.000e-08 7.500e-01 5.000e-07 5.000e-06 6.234e-20

5.000e-06 7.500e-01 1.000e-02 5.000e-08 6.500e-01 5.000e-05 6.094e-20

Page 44: Bureau of Reclamation · Created Date: 11/18/2004 6:27:54 PM

Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 44

Probability of

Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”

5.000e-06 5.500e-01 5.000e-08 6.000e-01 1.000e-06 7.000e-01 5.775e-20

5.500e-01 5.000e-09 1.000e-04 1.000e-03 1.000e-03 2.000e-01 5.500e-20

5.000e-09 4.000e-01 6.500e-01 1.000e-06 8.000e-01 5.000e-05 5.200e-20

1.000e-01 1.000e-01 5.000e-09 1.000e-08 9.500e-01 1.000e-01 4.750e-20

5.000e-09 4.500e-01 1.000e-02 9.990e-01 2.000e-01 1.000e-08 4.496e-20

5.000e-06 7.500e-01 3.500e-01 1.000e-07 5.000e-07 6.500e-01 4.266e-20

5.000e-05 5.000e-09 4.500e-01 3.500e-01 5.000e-06 2.000e-01 3.938e-20

1.000e-01 5.000e-07 5.000e-02 3.000e-01 5.000e-07 1.000e-04 3.750e-20

1.000e-09 5.000e-05 5.000e-02 3.000e-01 9.990e-01 5.000e-05 3.746e-20

9.990e-01 1.000e-06 5.000e-08 3.000e-01 5.000e-01 5.000e-06 3.746e-20

1.000e-03 8.500e-01 1.000e-01 1.000e-08 5.000e-08 8.500e-01 3.613e-20

5.000e-06 9.000e-01 5.000e-06 5.000e-06 1.000e-03 3.000e-01 3.375e-20

4.000e-01 1.000e-04 5.000e-07 7.000e-01 5.000e-09 4.500e-01 3.150e-20

5.000e-02 5.000e-09 5.000e-06 2.000e-01 2.500e-01 5.000e-04 3.125e-20

8.000e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-07 5.000e-04 2.000e-01 5.000e-09 3.000e-20

8.000e-01 1.500e-01 5.000e-08 5.000e-08 1.000e-01 1.000e-03 3.000e-20

4.000e-01 3.000e-01 1.000e-07 1.000e-08 2.500e-01 1.000e-03 3.000e-20

6.500e-01 1.000e-09 5.000e-08 1.000e-02 2.500e-01 3.500e-01 2.844e-20

5.000e-09 5.000e-02 1.500e-01 5.000e-05 3.000e-01 5.000e-05 2.813e-20

5.000e-05 1.000e-06 1.500e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-07 5.000e-02 2.813e-20

1.000e-05 5.000e-07 7.500e-01 1.000e-06 1.000e-02 7.000e-01 2.625e-20

1.000e-09 9.990e-01 1.000e-03 5.000e-05 1.000e-01 5.000e-03 2.498e-20

1.000e-07 7.000e-01 7.000e-01 1.000e-07 1.000e-04 5.000e-02 2.450e-20

5.000e-06 1.000e-08 5.500e-01 5.000e-02 5.000e-05 3.500e-01 2.406e-20

5.000e-09 1.000e-04 3.000e-01 1.000e-06 7.500e-01 2.000e-01 2.250e-20

8.500e-01 5.000e-07 5.000e-08 4.000e-01 5.000e-01 5.000e-06 2.125e-20

3.000e-01 7.000e-01 5.000e-08 8.000e-01 5.000e-07 5.000e-06 2.100e-20

6.000e-01 1.000e-03 1.000e-04 1.000e-07 3.500e-01 1.000e-05 2.100e-20

Page 45: Bureau of Reclamation · Created Date: 11/18/2004 6:27:54 PM

Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 45

Probability of

Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”

1.500e-01 5.000e-09 5.000e-06 3.500e-01 3.000e-01 5.000e-05 1.969e-20

1.000e-08 1.000e-06 4.500e-01 8.500e-01 1.000e-03 5.000e-03 1.913e-20

4.500e-01 1.000e-08 2.000e-01 2.000e-01 1.000e-04 1.000e-06 1.800e-20

1.500e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-09 4.000e-01 1.000e-09 4.000e-01 1.800e-20

9.500e-01 1.000e-05 1.000e-02 3.500e-01 1.000e-07 5.000e-06 1.663e-20

5.000e-03 1.000e-02 1.000e-04 1.000e-07 6.500e-01 5.000e-05 1.625e-20

1.000e-09 4.000e-01 1.000e-07 2.000e-01 2.000e-01 1.000e-02 1.600e-20

5.000e-04 5.000e-04 5.000e-04 5.000e-04 5.000e-04 5.000e-04 1.563e-20

1.000e-04 1.000e-04 1.000e-02 3.000e-01 5.000e-07 1.000e-03 1.500e-20

3.000e-01 5.000e-06 9.900e-01 1.000e-07 1.000e-04 1.000e-03 1.485e-20

5.000e-01 1.000e-04 5.000e-08 8.000e-01 6.500e-01 1.000e-08 1.300e-20

5.500e-01 1.000e-09 9.000e-01 5.000e-07 9.900e-01 5.000e-05 1.225e-20

5.000e-01 5.000e-09 5.000e-07 1.000e-03 9.500e-01 1.000e-02 1.188e-20

5.500e-01 8.500e-01 1.000e-08 1.000e-03 5.000e-04 5.000e-06 1.169e-20

2.500e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-02 1.000e-06 1.000e-07 9.000e-01 1.125e-20

9.500e-01 5.000e-07 1.000e-09 5.000e-03 4.000e-01 1.000e-02 9.500e-21

9.500e-01 5.000e-02 5.000e-07 4.000e-01 1.000e-09 1.000e-03 9.500e-21

5.000e-05 6.000e-01 5.000e-05 5.000e-06 5.000e-06 2.500e-01 9.375e-21

5.000e-01 1.000e-06 5.000e-06 1.500e-01 1.000e-07 2.500e-01 9.375e-21

5.000e-01 5.000e-07 5.000e-05 1.000e-07 1.500e-01 5.000e-02 9.375e-21

5.000e-06 4.000e-01 1.000e-02 4.500e-01 1.000e-06 1.000e-06 9.000e-21

9.990e-01 5.000e-07 9.990e-01 5.000e-08 3.500e-01 1.000e-06 8.733e-21

1.000e-06 8.500e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e-06 1.000e-06 9.900e-01 8.415e-21

4.000e-01 1.000e-06 5.000e-08 8.000e-01 1.000e-01 5.000e-06 8.000e-21

5.000e-02 1.000e-04 7.500e-01 4.000e-01 1.000e-08 5.000e-07 7.500e-21

5.000e-05 1.000e-09 5.000e-07 4.500e-01 9.500e-01 7.000e-01 7.481e-21

1.000e-09 7.000e-01 4.500e-01 5.000e-05 5.000e-07 9.500e-01 7.481e-21

1.000e-03 5.000e-07 1.000e-02 3.000e-01 1.000e-08 4.500e-01 6.750e-21

Page 46: Bureau of Reclamation · Created Date: 11/18/2004 6:27:54 PM

Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 46

Probability of

Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”

4.000e-01 1.000e-09 1.000e-08 6.000e-01 5.500e-01 5.000e-03 6.600e-21

6.500e-01 1.000e-08 1.000e-06 4.000e-01 5.000e-01 5.000e-06 6.500e-21

9.990e-01 5.000e-02 5.000e-02 5.000e-06 5.000e-08 1.000e-05 6.244e-21

1.500e-01 5.000e-09 1.000e-08 3.000e-01 5.500e-01 5.000e-03 6.188e-21

4.000e-01 3.000e-01 1.000e-04 1.000e-07 5.000e-06 1.000e-03 6.000e-21

4.000e-01 9.990e-01 1.000e-04 5.000e-08 3.000e-01 1.000e-08 5.994e-21

2.000e-01 8.500e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-08 1.000e-07 7.000e-01 5.950e-21

5.000e-05 4.500e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-02 1.000e-04 5.000e-06 5.625e-21

7.500e-01 5.000e-09 1.000e-02 6.000e-01 5.000e-05 5.000e-06 5.625e-21

1.000e-07 3.000e-01 1.000e-08 7.500e-01 5.000e-01 5.000e-05 5.625e-21

5.000e-02 6.000e-01 5.000e-08 7.500e-01 5.000e-06 1.000e-06 5.625e-21

3.500e-01 1.000e-04 3.000e-01 5.000e-04 1.000e-09 1.000e-03 5.250e-21

1.000e-01 3.000e-01 1.000e-02 3.500e-01 1.000e-08 5.000e-09 5.250e-21

4.000e-01 1.000e-06 5.000e-05 3.500e-01 1.500e-01 5.000e-09 5.250e-21

1.500e-01 1.000e-09 1.500e-01 4.500e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-05 5.063e-21

5.000e-05 1.000e-05 1.000e-05 1.000e-03 1.000e-01 1.000e-02 5.000e-21

5.000e-06 5.000e-06 2.000e-01 1.000e-07 9.990e-01 1.000e-02 4.995e-21

5.000e-05 7.500e-01 5.000e-09 9.900e-01 5.000e-05 5.000e-04 4.641e-21

1.000e-09 1.000e-03 4.500e-01 5.000e-06 1.000e-02 2.000e-01 4.500e-21

5.000e-05 5.000e-02 5.000e-08 1.000e-03 7.000e-01 5.000e-05 4.375e-21

5.000e-06 1.000e-01 5.000e-05 1.000e-02 3.500e-01 5.000e-08 4.375e-21

5.000e-06 1.000e-09 8.500e-01 1.000e-03 1.000e-03 9.500e-01 4.038e-21

2.000e-01 5.000e-09 5.000e-05 1.000e-06 1.000e-01 8.000e-01 4.000e-21

1.000e-05 7.500e-01 1.000e-04 1.000e-06 1.000e-03 5.000e-03 3.750e-21

1.000e-04 1.000e-08 7.500e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-04 9.900e-01 3.713e-21

1.000e-09 4.500e-01 5.000e-05 7.000e-01 5.000e-07 4.500e-01 3.544e-21

5.000e-06 1.000e-01 1.000e-07 2.000e-01 5.000e-07 7.000e-01 3.500e-21

1.000e-07 9.990e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-07 7.000e-01 1.000e-02 3.497e-21

Page 47: Bureau of Reclamation · Created Date: 11/18/2004 6:27:54 PM

Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 47

Probability of

Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”

5.000e-09 1.000e-02 7.500e-01 5.000e-06 3.500e-01 5.000e-05 3.281e-21

1.000e-08 5.000e-07 6.500e-01 9.990e-01 2.000e-01 5.000e-06 3.247e-21

5.000e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-08 2.500e-01 1.000e-02 5.000e-06 3.125e-21

5.000e-08 1.000e-08 1.000e-03 3.500e-01 3.500e-01 5.000e-02 3.063e-21

1.000e-09 5.000e-02 1.000e-06 4.000e-01 3.000e-01 5.000e-04 3.000e-21

5.000e-03 1.000e-05 3.000e-01 1.000e-07 4.000e-01 5.000e-06 3.000e-21

1.000e-01 6.000e-01 5.000e-04 1.000e-07 1.000e-07 1.000e-02 3.000e-21

9.990e-01 5.000e-05 3.000e-01 1.000e-07 4.000e-01 5.000e-09 2.997e-21

1.000e-08 2.500e-01 1.000e-04 5.000e-07 4.500e-01 5.000e-02 2.813e-21

1.000e-09 4.500e-01 9.990e-01 5.000e-07 2.500e-01 5.000e-05 2.810e-21

5.000e-02 1.000e-09 1.000e-04 9.990e-01 5.000e-07 9.990e-01 2.495e-21

1.000e-09 5.000e-07 1.000e-02 5.000e-03 6.500e-01 1.500e-01 2.438e-21

8.000e-01 1.000e-05 1.000e-05 1.000e-03 3.000e-01 1.000e-07 2.400e-21

1.000e-07 1.000e-05 2.000e-01 6.000e-01 1.000e-07 2.000e-01 2.400e-21

7.500e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-05 1.000e-08 1.000e-07 4.000e-01 2.250e-21

9.000e-01 1.000e-01 5.000e-06 5.000e-07 1.000e-08 9.990e-01 2.248e-21

1.000e-04 1.000e-05 8.500e-01 5.000e-04 1.000e-03 5.000e-06 2.125e-21

4.500e-01 4.500e-01 4.000e-01 5.000e-06 1.000e-06 5.000e-09 2.025e-21

9.000e-01 4.500e-01 1.000e-07 5.000e-08 1.000e-05 1.000e-01 2.025e-21

5.000e-02 1.000e-07 1.000e-02 1.000e-05 8.000e-01 5.000e-06 2.000e-21

1.000e-01 4.000e-01 4.000e-01 5.000e-08 5.000e-07 5.000e-06 2.000e-21

9.500e-01 1.000e-08 5.000e-04 1.000e-06 8.000e-01 5.000e-04 1.900e-21

1.000e-04 7.000e-01 5.000e-07 1.000e-06 9.500e-01 5.000e-05 1.663e-21

8.000e-01 6.500e-01 5.000e-08 2.500e-01 5.000e-05 5.000e-09 1.625e-21

1.000e-02 1.000e-05 1.000e-05 3.000e-01 5.000e-08 1.000e-01 1.500e-21

1.000e-09 1.000e-05 1.000e-04 3.000e-01 9.990e-01 5.000e-03 1.499e-21

1.000e-06 5.000e-06 1.000e-02 6.000e-01 9.990e-01 5.000e-08 1.499e-21

9.500e-01 1.000e-05 3.000e-01 5.000e-08 1.000e-07 1.000e-01 1.425e-21

Page 48: Bureau of Reclamation · Created Date: 11/18/2004 6:27:54 PM

Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 48

Probability of

Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”

1.000e-04 4.000e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e-06 5.000e-09 7.000e-01 1.400e-21

1.000e-07 5.500e-01 1.000e-05 1.000e-01 5.000e-05 5.000e-04 1.375e-21

8.000e-01 5.000e-09 5.000e-06 1.000e-06 6.500e-01 1.000e-01 1.300e-21

1.000e-04 4.000e-01 1.000e-04 1.000e-07 6.500e-01 5.000e-06 1.300e-21

1.000e-01 1.000e-03 5.000e-04 5.000e-02 1.000e-06 5.000e-07 1.250e-21

1.000e-01 1.000e-08 5.000e-08 2.500e-01 9.500e-01 1.000e-04 1.188e-21

7.500e-01 1.000e-04 1.000e-08 3.000e-01 5.000e-05 1.000e-04 1.125e-21

1.000e-09 1.000e-03 5.000e-01 1.000e-06 4.500e-01 5.000e-03 1.125e-21

5.000e-09 6.000e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-01 5.000e-03 1.000e-09 1.125e-21

1.500e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-01 3.000e-01 1.000e-06 5.000e-09 1.125e-21

4.500e-01 6.000e-01 1.000e-09 1.000e-07 1.000e-04 4.000e-01 1.080e-21

1.000e-03 4.500e-01 5.000e-04 5.000e-08 9.500e-01 1.000e-07 1.069e-21

5.000e-05 1.500e-01 9.500e-01 1.500e-01 1.000e-07 1.000e-08 1.069e-21

1.000e-05 4.000e-01 5.000e-08 1.000e-06 1.000e-01 5.000e-02 1.000e-21

5.000e-09 6.000e-01 6.500e-01 1.000e-06 1.000e-01 5.000e-06 9.750e-22

5.000e-06 5.000e-07 7.500e-01 2.000e-01 5.000e-06 5.000e-04 9.375e-22

1.000e-05 4.000e-01 5.000e-08 5.000e-07 8.000e-01 1.000e-02 8.000e-22

4.000e-01 4.500e-01 5.000e-07 5.000e-09 3.500e-01 5.000e-06 7.875e-22

1.000e-02 5.000e-09 5.000e-04 6.500e-01 5.000e-08 9.500e-01 7.719e-22

5.000e-06 6.000e-01 6.000e-01 5.000e-08 1.000e-08 8.500e-01 7.650e-22

1.500e-01 5.000e-07 5.000e-06 9.000e-01 5.000e-09 4.500e-01 7.594e-22

1.500e-01 1.000e-09 1.500e-01 1.000e-06 6.500e-01 5.000e-05 7.313e-22

3.500e-01 4.500e-01 5.000e-08 3.500e-01 5.000e-08 5.000e-06 6.891e-22

4.000e-01 8.500e-01 1.000e-06 2.000e-01 1.000e-05 1.000e-09 6.800e-22

5.000e-05 5.000e-02 1.000e-04 5.000e-06 5.000e-03 1.000e-04 6.250e-22

5.000e-05 7.500e-01 5.000e-05 3.000e-01 1.000e-03 1.000e-09 5.625e-22

6.500e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-08 5.000e-07 6.500e-01 5.000e-03 5.281e-22

3.500e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-05 1.000e-06 2.000e-01 1.000e-09 5.250e-22

Page 49: Bureau of Reclamation · Created Date: 11/18/2004 6:27:54 PM

Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 49

Probability of

Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”

6.500e-01 1.000e-05 1.000e-02 8.000e-01 1.000e-07 1.000e-07 5.200e-22

1.000e-09 4.500e-01 3.000e-01 1.000e-07 7.500e-01 5.000e-05 5.063e-22

7.500e-01 5.000e-05 6.500e-01 2.000e-01 1.000e-09 1.000e-07 4.875e-22

8.500e-01 5.000e-05 5.000e-09 5.000e-09 6.500e-01 7.000e-01 4.834e-22

1.000e-01 5.000e-06 5.000e-09 5.000e-06 1.500e-01 2.500e-01 4.688e-22

6.500e-01 1.000e-09 7.000e-01 5.000e-08 4.000e-01 5.000e-05 4.550e-22

1.000e-09 1.000e-01 4.000e-01 5.000e-08 5.000e-04 4.500e-01 4.500e-22

4.500e-01 1.000e-09 1.000e-07 5.000e-05 6.500e-01 3.000e-01 4.388e-22

2.500e-01 1.000e-08 3.500e-01 5.000e-05 1.000e-03 1.000e-05 4.375e-22

5.000e-03 7.500e-01 4.500e-01 1.000e-08 5.000e-06 5.000e-06 4.219e-22

9.000e-01 5.000e-07 7.500e-01 5.000e-08 5.000e-03 5.000e-06 4.219e-22

8.000e-01 5.000e-06 9.990e-01 1.000e-08 1.000e-06 1.000e-02 3.996e-22

1.000e-01 9.990e-01 5.000e-08 1.000e-08 1.000e-05 7.500e-01 3.746e-22

1.000e-09 3.500e-01 1.000e-03 3.000e-01 3.500e-01 1.000e-08 3.675e-22

8.000e-01 5.000e-09 1.000e-05 1.000e-03 1.000e-05 8.500e-01 3.400e-22

4.500e-01 1.000e-03 1.000e-08 7.500e-01 1.000e-03 1.000e-07 3.375e-22

8.500e-01 9.990e-01 5.000e-07 1.000e-07 1.000e-08 7.500e-01 3.184e-22

8.500e-01 1.500e-01 5.000e-06 9.990e-01 1.000e-08 5.000e-08 3.184e-22

6.000e-01 1.000e-06 9.990e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e-09 5.000e-05 2.997e-22

2.500e-01 8.500e-01 5.000e-07 5.000e-06 1.000e-05 5.000e-05 2.656e-22

2.000e-01 1.000e-02 5.000e-05 5.000e-08 1.000e-01 5.000e-07 2.500e-22

5.000e-06 1.000e-08 1.000e-02 1.000e-04 9.900e-01 5.000e-03 2.475e-22

8.500e-01 5.000e-09 7.500e-01 1.000e-06 7.500e-01 1.000e-07 2.391e-22

9.990e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-09 6.000e-01 5.000e-08 1.500e-01 2.248e-22

5.000e-05 5.000e-09 1.000e-02 1.000e-06 1.000e-01 8.500e-01 2.125e-22

5.500e-01 1.000e-06 9.500e-01 1.000e-09 8.000e-01 5.000e-07 2.090e-22

1.000e-01 4.000e-01 5.000e-08 9.900e-01 1.000e-06 1.000e-07 1.980e-22

1.000e-08 7.500e-01 1.000e-08 7.500e-01 1.000e-05 3.500e-01 1.969e-22

Page 50: Bureau of Reclamation · Created Date: 11/18/2004 6:27:54 PM

Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 50

Probability of

Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”

9.500e-01 5.000e-09 4.000e-01 5.000e-08 4.000e-01 5.000e-06 1.900e-22

1.000e-05 5.000e-04 1.500e-01 5.000e-06 1.000e-03 5.000e-05 1.875e-22

1.500e-01 9.000e-01 5.000e-08 5.000e-08 1.000e-06 5.500e-01 1.856e-22

5.500e-01 1.000e-09 5.000e-05 8.500e-01 5.000e-08 1.500e-01 1.753e-22

1.500e-01 1.000e-05 4.500e-01 1.000e-08 5.000e-01 5.000e-08 1.688e-22

1.000e-06 5.000e-09 8.500e-01 5.000e-05 7.500e-01 1.000e-03 1.594e-22

4.000e-01 5.000e-07 1.500e-01 1.000e-06 5.000e-04 1.000e-05 1.500e-22

5.000e-05 4.000e-01 7.500e-01 4.000e-01 5.000e-09 5.000e-09 1.500e-22

1.000e-08 3.500e-01 8.500e-01 1.000e-06 1.000e-03 5.000e-05 1.488e-22

1.000e-03 5.500e-01 5.000e-08 1.000e-03 5.000e-03 1.000e-06 1.375e-22

1.000e-05 1.000e-01 5.000e-02 5.000e-09 5.000e-06 1.000e-01 1.250e-22

3.500e-01 5.000e-06 1.000e-09 5.000e-07 1.500e-01 9.500e-01 1.247e-22

1.000e-09 1.000e-03 5.000e-08 4.000e-01 5.500e-01 1.000e-02 1.100e-22

5.000e-09 1.500e-01 6.500e-01 5.000e-08 1.000e-05 4.500e-01 1.097e-22

5.000e-05 5.000e-06 1.000e-02 1.000e-08 5.000e-03 8.500e-01 1.063e-22

1.000e-04 5.000e-07 5.000e-03 6.000e-01 1.000e-09 7.000e-01 1.050e-22

5.000e-09 5.000e-06 4.000e-01 1.000e-06 9.900e-01 1.000e-02 9.900e-23

5.000e-06 5.000e-06 1.000e-05 1.500e-01 5.000e-01 5.000e-06 9.375e-23

5.000e-06 1.000e-03 7.000e-01 5.000e-05 1.000e-05 5.000e-05 8.750e-23

9.990e-01 3.500e-01 5.000e-07 5.000e-08 1.000e-06 1.000e-02 8.741e-23

9.500e-01 1.000e-05 1.000e-07 1.000e-01 1.000e-09 8.500e-01 8.075e-23

8.500e-01 5.000e-09 1.000e-03 7.500e-01 5.000e-06 5.000e-06 7.969e-23

5.000e-06 7.500e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-08 5.000e-05 8.500e-01 7.969e-23

3.000e-01 1.000e-06 1.000e-02 5.000e-06 1.000e-05 5.000e-04 7.500e-23

1.000e-01 5.000e-07 5.000e-07 3.000e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e-06 7.500e-23

1.000e-07 1.000e-05 7.000e-01 3.000e-01 3.500e-01 1.000e-09 7.350e-23

1.000e-09 8.500e-01 8.500e-01 5.000e-07 2.000e-01 1.000e-06 7.225e-23

5.000e-08 1.000e-09 9.990e-01 6.000e-01 4.000e-01 5.000e-06 5.994e-23

Page 51: Bureau of Reclamation · Created Date: 11/18/2004 6:27:54 PM

Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 51

Probability of

Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”

1.000e-05 1.000e-09 1.000e-02 2.500e-01 5.000e-06 4.500e-01 5.625e-23

1.000e-07 1.000e-01 1.500e-01 5.000e-07 5.000e-07 1.500e-01 5.625e-23

8.000e-01 1.000e-06 1.000e-05 1.000e-06 1.000e-05 7.000e-01 5.600e-23

9.500e-01 1.000e-09 5.000e-05 5.000e-05 4.500e-01 5.000e-05 5.344e-23

5.000e-01 1.000e-08 5.000e-08 3.000e-01 1.000e-06 7.000e-01 5.250e-23

1.000e-03 1.000e-09 1.000e-09 8.000e-01 6.500e-01 1.000e-01 5.200e-23

1.000e-02 1.000e-03 1.000e-05 1.000e-06 1.000e-01 5.000e-06 5.000e-23

4.000e-01 1.000e-03 1.000e-08 5.000e-05 1.000e-06 2.500e-01 5.000e-23

5.000e-05 5.000e-05 5.000e-03 5.000e-08 8.000e-01 1.000e-04 5.000e-23

5.000e-06 5.000e-09 5.000e-06 1.000e-03 4.500e-01 8.500e-01 4.781e-23

1.000e-04 4.500e-01 5.000e-08 1.000e-05 1.000e-05 2.000e-01 4.500e-23

1.000e-09 1.000e-02 9.990e-01 5.000e-06 1.000e-06 8.500e-01 4.246e-23

5.000e-05 1.000e-05 6.000e-01 5.500e-01 5.000e-09 5.000e-05 4.125e-23

5.500e-01 1.000e-03 5.000e-08 5.000e-08 6.000e-01 5.000e-05 4.125e-23

8.000e-01 1.000e-03 1.000e-08 1.000e-03 5.000e-01 1.000e-08 4.000e-23

5.000e-08 4.500e-01 5.000e-06 1.000e-07 3.500e-01 1.000e-02 3.938e-23

3.000e-01 1.000e-08 1.000e-05 5.000e-09 4.500e-01 5.500e-01 3.713e-23

1.000e-05 1.000e-09 5.000e-05 1.000e-04 9.500e-01 7.500e-01 3.563e-23

5.000e-08 5.000e-06 8.000e-01 3.500e-01 5.000e-03 1.000e-07 3.500e-23

9.990e-01 1.000e-01 1.000e-08 5.000e-08 1.000e-06 7.000e-01 3.497e-23

5.000e-06 1.000e-08 1.000e-08 2.000e-01 4.500e-01 7.500e-01 3.375e-23

5.000e-06 1.000e-04 5.000e-03 5.000e-02 5.000e-07 5.000e-04 3.125e-23

5.000e-02 4.000e-01 1.000e-07 6.000e-01 5.000e-07 5.000e-08 3.000e-23

1.000e-09 5.000e-09 5.000e-01 2.500e-01 5.000e-05 9.500e-01 2.969e-23

1.000e-09 9.000e-01 5.000e-07 9.900e-01 1.000e-07 6.500e-01 2.896e-23

9.000e-01 2.500e-01 5.000e-08 5.000e-07 5.000e-07 1.000e-02 2.813e-23

1.000e-07 7.500e-01 5.000e-05 1.500e-01 5.000e-05 1.000e-06 2.813e-23

1.500e-01 4.000e-01 1.000e-08 1.000e-06 4.500e-01 1.000e-07 2.700e-23

Page 52: Bureau of Reclamation · Created Date: 11/18/2004 6:27:54 PM

Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 52

Probability of

Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”

4.000e-01 5.000e-09 5.000e-08 6.000e-01 1.000e-06 4.500e-01 2.700e-23

4.000e-01 1.000e-08 5.000e-02 5.000e-08 5.000e-01 5.000e-06 2.500e-23

4.000e-01 1.000e-08 2.500e-01 5.000e-02 5.000e-04 1.000e-09 2.500e-23

1.000e-07 5.000e-09 1.500e-01 5.000e-07 8.500e-01 7.500e-01 2.391e-23

1.000e-07 5.000e-09 4.000e-01 5.000e-07 9.500e-01 2.500e-01 2.375e-23

9.990e-01 5.000e-05 5.000e-07 1.000e-07 9.500e-01 1.000e-05 2.373e-23

5.000e-09 2.500e-01 7.500e-01 5.000e-08 5.000e-06 1.000e-01 2.344e-23

9.500e-01 1.000e-08 1.000e-05 5.000e-07 9.500e-01 5.000e-04 2.256e-23

4.500e-01 5.000e-09 1.000e-06 1.000e-03 2.000e-01 5.000e-05 2.250e-23

5.000e-06 1.000e-04 1.000e-08 1.000e-03 4.500e-01 1.000e-02 2.250e-23

5.000e-06 1.000e-05 7.000e-01 2.500e-01 5.000e-05 5.000e-08 2.188e-23

1.000e-02 5.000e-06 5.000e-09 1.000e-07 9.990e-01 8.500e-01 2.123e-23

5.000e-06 5.000e-09 1.000e-08 2.500e-01 4.500e-01 7.000e-01 1.969e-23

1.000e-09 5.000e-07 2.500e-01 4.000e-01 1.000e-06 3.500e-01 1.750e-23

1.000e-06 5.000e-09 9.500e-01 1.000e-06 1.000e-02 3.500e-01 1.663e-23

1.000e-01 1.000e-08 1.000e-05 5.000e-07 6.500e-01 5.000e-03 1.625e-23

1.000e-05 5.000e-07 9.990e-01 5.000e-06 6.500e-01 1.000e-06 1.623e-23

1.000e-09 5.000e-07 6.500e-01 5.000e-08 9.900e-01 9.900e-01 1.593e-23

4.000e-01 1.000e-07 5.000e-09 3.500e-01 5.000e-07 4.500e-01 1.575e-23

3.500e-01 1.000e-09 1.000e-05 1.000e-01 4.500e-01 1.000e-07 1.575e-23

2.000e-01 1.000e-06 5.000e-08 3.500e-01 4.500e-01 1.000e-08 1.575e-23

1.000e-08 2.000e-01 5.000e-05 1.000e-03 1.500e-01 1.000e-06 1.500e-23

1.000e-04 1.000e-09 2.500e-01 1.500e-01 8.000e-01 5.000e-09 1.500e-23

1.000e-02 5.000e-08 1.000e-02 6.000e-01 5.000e-07 1.000e-05 1.500e-23

1.000e-07 7.500e-01 1.000e-02 5.000e-06 7.500e-01 5.000e-09 1.406e-23

1.000e-01 1.000e-05 1.000e-09 4.000e-01 1.000e-07 3.500e-01 1.400e-23

1.000e-05 1.000e-09 1.000e-08 3.500e-01 5.000e-01 7.500e-01 1.313e-23

1.000e-05 3.000e-01 8.000e-01 5.000e-06 1.000e-05 1.000e-07 1.200e-23

Page 53: Bureau of Reclamation · Created Date: 11/18/2004 6:27:54 PM

Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 53

Probability of

Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”

1.000e-04 1.000e-05 5.000e-02 1.000e-09 4.500e-01 5.000e-04 1.125e-23

4.000e-01 5.000e-09 5.000e-07 5.000e-08 7.500e-01 3.000e-01 1.125e-23

5.500e-01 5.000e-09 5.000e-08 1.000e-05 8.000e-01 1.000e-02 1.100e-23

5.500e-01 5.000e-09 8.000e-01 5.000e-08 1.000e-06 1.000e-01 1.100e-23

5.000e-05 5.000e-06 1.000e-05 5.000e-06 1.000e-03 8.500e-01 1.063e-23

1.000e-09 1.000e-04 3.000e-01 3.500e-01 1.000e-05 1.000e-04 1.050e-23

1.000e-04 1.000e-05 7.500e-01 5.000e-08 5.500e-01 5.000e-07 1.031e-23

5.000e-06 5.000e-02 6.000e-01 5.000e-08 1.000e-03 1.000e-06 7.500e-24

1.000e-09 5.000e-08 5.000e-06 3.000e-01 6.500e-01 1.500e-01 7.313e-24

1.000e-05 7.500e-01 5.000e-07 1.000e-03 3.500e-01 5.000e-09 6.563e-24

1.000e-09 1.000e-05 5.000e-07 2.000e-01 6.500e-01 1.000e-02 6.500e-24

1.000e-04 5.000e-09 9.990e-01 5.000e-07 5.000e-01 5.000e-05 6.244e-24

3.500e-01 5.000e-09 7.000e-01 5.000e-08 1.000e-06 1.000e-01 6.125e-24

1.000e-07 5.000e-07 2.500e-01 5.000e-02 9.500e-01 1.000e-08 5.938e-24

3.000e-01 1.000e-08 5.000e-05 1.000e-05 7.500e-01 5.000e-06 5.625e-24

9.990e-01 1.000e-09 7.500e-01 1.500e-01 5.000e-06 1.000e-08 5.619e-24

5.000e-06 1.000e-08 1.000e-02 2.000e-01 5.500e-01 1.000e-07 5.500e-24

5.000e-07 8.500e-01 5.000e-03 5.000e-06 1.000e-07 5.000e-03 5.313e-24

4.000e-01 3.500e-01 1.000e-08 1.000e-08 5.000e-07 7.500e-01 5.250e-24

1.000e-04 5.000e-07 5.000e-07 5.000e-07 7.500e-01 5.500e-01 5.156e-24

9.990e-01 1.000e-05 1.000e-05 1.000e-07 1.000e-03 5.000e-04 4.995e-24

1.000e-09 1.000e-05 4.500e-01 3.000e-01 3.500e-01 1.000e-08 4.725e-24

3.500e-01 1.000e-07 2.000e-01 1.000e-07 1.000e-08 6.500e-01 4.550e-24

5.000e-05 5.000e-09 8.000e-01 5.000e-09 5.000e-03 8.500e-01 4.250e-24

9.000e-01 5.000e-05 5.000e-08 1.000e-07 3.500e-01 5.000e-05 3.938e-24

9.500e-01 1.000e-09 5.000e-08 1.000e-06 8.000e-01 1.000e-01 3.800e-24

9.500e-01 5.000e-07 4.000e-01 2.000e-01 1.000e-09 1.000e-07 3.800e-24

1.000e-08 5.000e-05 3.000e-01 5.000e-06 5.000e-01 1.000e-05 3.750e-24

Page 54: Bureau of Reclamation · Created Date: 11/18/2004 6:27:54 PM

Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 54

Probability of

Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”

2.500e-01 1.000e-04 1.000e-07 1.000e-07 3.000e-01 5.000e-05 3.750e-24

6.500e-01 1.000e-09 2.000e-01 5.000e-08 5.000e-05 1.000e-02 3.250e-24

5.000e-05 1.000e-04 1.000e-09 9.990e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-02 2.498e-24

4.000e-01 1.000e-05 1.000e-02 1.000e-03 5.000e-05 1.000e-09 2.000e-24

5.000e-05 1.000e-09 4.000e-01 9.900e-01 1.000e-04 1.000e-06 1.980e-24

9.500e-01 5.000e-06 5.000e-08 1.000e-04 1.000e-07 8.000e-01 1.900e-24

1.000e-07 5.000e-02 5.000e-08 5.000e-08 9.500e-01 1.500e-01 1.781e-24

3.500e-01 1.000e-09 1.000e-06 5.000e-02 1.000e-01 1.000e-06 1.750e-24

9.500e-01 5.000e-09 5.000e-09 5.000e-07 4.000e-01 3.500e-01 1.663e-24

5.000e-02 6.500e-01 5.000e-07 1.000e-06 1.000e-06 1.000e-04 1.625e-24

1.000e-04 1.000e-09 5.000e-06 3.000e-01 1.000e-03 1.000e-02 1.500e-24

1.000e-02 9.990e-01 5.000e-04 5.000e-07 1.000e-05 5.000e-08 1.249e-24

1.000e-07 7.500e-01 1.000e-02 1.500e-01 1.000e-09 1.000e-05 1.125e-24

9.500e-01 9.000e-01 5.000e-08 1.000e-05 5.000e-07 5.000e-06 1.069e-24

8.500e-01 5.000e-07 1.000e-05 1.000e-07 5.000e-04 5.000e-03 1.063e-24

1.000e-04 1.000e-04 1.000e-04 1.000e-04 1.000e-04 1.000e-04 1.000e-24

4.000e-01 1.000e-09 5.000e-08 1.000e-06 5.000e-02 9.500e-01 9.500e-25

1.000e-08 5.000e-09 1.000e-03 5.000e-03 7.500e-01 5.000e-03 9.375e-25

5.000e-06 1.000e-05 1.000e-08 1.000e-05 4.000e-01 4.500e-01 9.000e-25

2.000e-01 5.000e-09 1.000e-02 1.000e-04 1.000e-09 8.500e-01 8.500e-25

5.000e-05 5.000e-06 1.000e-08 5.000e-07 9.500e-01 6.500e-01 7.719e-25

1.000e-03 1.000e-05 5.000e-06 5.000e-06 5.000e-03 5.000e-04 6.250e-25

1.000e-05 9.990e-01 5.000e-09 1.000e-08 1.000e-03 9.900e-01 4.945e-25

1.000e-09 5.000e-09 6.500e-01 5.000e-07 4.000e-01 7.500e-01 4.875e-25

5.000e-03 5.000e-09 2.500e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-04 1.000e-09 4.688e-25

5.000e-03 9.000e-01 1.000e-07 1.000e-06 1.000e-01 1.000e-08 4.500e-25

1.000e-08 5.000e-02 1.500e-01 5.000e-08 1.000e-03 1.000e-04 3.750e-25

8.500e-01 3.500e-01 1.000e-02 5.000e-08 5.000e-09 5.000e-07 3.719e-25

Page 55: Bureau of Reclamation · Created Date: 11/18/2004 6:27:54 PM

Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 55

Probability of

Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”

1.000e-07 5.000e-09 7.500e-01 1.000e-07 9.500e-01 1.000e-02 3.563e-25

3.500e-01 1.000e-05 1.000e-09 3.500e-01 5.000e-07 5.000e-04 3.063e-25

5.000e-05 5.000e-09 2.500e-01 5.000e-07 1.000e-05 9.500e-01 2.969e-25

1.000e-03 1.000e-08 6.500e-01 1.000e-07 5.000e-07 8.500e-01 2.763e-25

1.000e-01 1.000e-09 5.000e-05 1.000e-05 5.000e-04 1.000e-02 2.500e-25

9.500e-01 1.000e-03 1.000e-06 5.000e-08 5.000e-03 1.000e-06 2.375e-25

1.000e-04 1.000e-06 5.000e-05 5.000e-08 9.500e-01 1.000e-03 2.375e-25

3.500e-01 1.000e-05 6.500e-01 1.000e-07 1.000e-06 1.000e-06 2.275e-25

3.000e-01 1.000e-04 5.000e-08 3.000e-01 1.000e-07 5.000e-06 2.250e-25

1.000e-09 3.000e-01 1.500e-01 1.000e-08 5.000e-05 1.000e-02 2.250e-25

1.000e-04 1.000e-07 8.500e-01 5.000e-08 1.000e-04 5.000e-03 2.125e-25

5.000e-06 1.000e-09 5.000e-09 9.900e-01 8.500e-01 1.000e-02 2.104e-25

5.000e-07 1.000e-03 1.000e-08 5.000e-05 8.000e-01 1.000e-03 2.000e-25

1.000e-02 1.000e-08 1.000e-08 6.000e-01 5.000e-07 6.500e-01 1.950e-25

5.000e-03 5.000e-08 1.000e-03 5.000e-05 1.500e-01 1.000e-07 1.875e-25

1.000e-09 1.000e-01 1.000e-07 3.500e-01 1.000e-06 5.000e-02 1.750e-25

5.000e-07 4.000e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e-07 6.500e-01 1.000e-09 1.300e-25

1.000e-09 5.000e-09 2.000e-01 5.000e-05 5.000e-01 5.000e-03 1.250e-25

5.000e-06 5.000e-09 3.000e-01 5.000e-07 6.500e-01 5.000e-05 1.219e-25

5.000e-09 8.500e-01 5.000e-02 5.000e-02 1.000e-06 1.000e-08 1.063e-25

5.000e-01 1.000e-09 8.000e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-07 5.000e-05 1.000e-25

1.500e-01 1.000e-08 1.000e-09 6.500e-01 9.500e-01 1.000e-07 9.263e-26

5.000e-06 1.000e-08 5.000e-06 2.000e-01 3.500e-01 5.000e-06 8.750e-26

1.000e-08 5.000e-07 1.000e-02 3.500e-01 9.900e-01 5.000e-09 8.663e-26

1.000e-08 1.000e-01 1.000e-08 1.000e-01 5.000e-07 1.500e-01 7.500e-26

1.000e-06 1.000e-06 6.500e-01 1.000e-01 1.000e-08 1.000e-04 6.500e-26

1.000e-07 5.000e-04 5.000e-03 1.000e-01 5.000e-05 5.000e-08 6.250e-26

1.000e-09 4.000e-01 1.000e-07 3.000e-01 1.000e-01 5.000e-08 6.000e-26

Page 56: Bureau of Reclamation · Created Date: 11/18/2004 6:27:54 PM

Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 56

Probability of

Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”

9.990e-01 1.000e-04 1.000e-05 1.000e-03 5.000e-07 1.000e-07 4.995e-26

5.000e-05 5.000e-05 5.000e-08 5.000e-05 1.000e-05 7.500e-01 4.688e-26

8.000e-01 1.000e-09 1.000e-02 5.000e-08 1.000e-01 1.000e-06 4.000e-26

1.000e-09 5.000e-03 5.000e-08 4.000e-01 7.500e-01 5.000e-07 3.750e-26

5.000e-02 5.000e-07 3.000e-01 1.000e-06 5.000e-06 1.000e-06 3.750e-26

5.000e-06 5.000e-06 1.000e-08 5.000e-07 3.500e-01 8.500e-01 3.719e-26

3.500e-01 5.000e-07 5.000e-07 1.000e-07 5.000e-06 8.500e-01 3.719e-26

5.000e-05 1.000e-03 4.000e-01 3.500e-01 1.000e-09 5.000e-09 3.500e-26

5.500e-01 5.000e-05 1.000e-05 5.000e-06 5.000e-07 5.000e-05 3.438e-26

1.000e-01 6.500e-01 1.000e-04 5.000e-08 1.000e-07 1.000e-06 3.250e-26

3.000e-01 8.000e-01 1.000e-08 5.000e-06 5.000e-07 5.000e-06 3.000e-26

1.000e-01 5.000e-09 3.000e-01 1.000e-07 5.000e-09 4.000e-01 3.000e-26

1.000e-09 7.500e-01 7.500e-01 5.000e-08 1.000e-09 9.990e-01 2.810e-26

1.000e-09 5.000e-02 1.000e-09 3.500e-01 1.000e-05 1.500e-01 2.625e-26

1.000e-08 5.000e-06 1.000e-02 1.000e-06 1.000e-03 5.000e-02 2.500e-26

5.000e-02 1.000e-03 1.000e-07 1.000e-07 5.000e-07 1.000e-01 2.500e-26

5.000e-03 1.000e-03 1.000e-03 5.000e-08 1.000e-07 1.000e-03 2.500e-26

9.500e-01 5.000e-06 5.000e-07 2.000e-01 5.000e-07 1.000e-07 2.375e-26

1.000e-08 1.000e-09 1.000e-03 7.500e-01 5.500e-01 5.000e-06 2.063e-26

8.000e-01 1.000e-09 1.000e-02 5.000e-06 5.000e-07 1.000e-03 2.000e-26

1.000e-04 1.000e-04 8.000e-01 5.000e-03 5.000e-08 1.000e-08 2.000e-26

1.000e-05 5.000e-09 3.000e-01 5.000e-06 5.000e-06 5.000e-02 1.875e-26

1.500e-01 5.000e-07 1.000e-05 1.000e-03 5.000e-06 5.000e-06 1.875e-26

5.000e-09 1.000e-04 5.000e-03 1.000e-06 1.500e-01 5.000e-05 1.875e-26

5.000e-05 5.000e-05 5.000e-05 5.000e-05 5.000e-05 5.000e-05 1.563e-26

3.000e-01 1.000e-04 1.000e-08 9.000e-01 5.000e-06 1.000e-08 1.350e-26

1.000e-07 6.000e-01 8.500e-01 5.000e-05 1.000e-07 5.000e-08 1.275e-26

1.000e-03 5.000e-05 1.000e-02 5.000e-04 5.000e-07 1.000e-07 1.250e-26

Page 57: Bureau of Reclamation · Created Date: 11/18/2004 6:27:54 PM

Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 57

Probability of

Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”

1.000e-04 2.500e-01 1.000e-08 9.900e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-09 1.238e-26

1.000e-09 1.000e-08 6.500e-01 5.000e-03 5.000e-07 7.000e-01 1.138e-26

5.000e-06 3.000e-01 1.000e-06 5.000e-06 1.000e-08 1.500e-01 1.125e-26

1.000e-04 1.000e-09 1.500e-01 1.000e-09 5.000e-03 1.500e-01 1.125e-26

1.000e-09 5.000e-07 5.000e-07 5.000e-05 9.500e-01 8.500e-01 1.009e-26

1.000e-09 8.500e-01 5.000e-07 5.000e-06 4.500e-01 1.000e-05 9.563e-27

9.500e-01 4.000e-01 1.000e-03 1.000e-08 5.000e-07 5.000e-09 9.500e-27

5.000e-01 1.000e-06 5.000e-06 7.500e-01 1.000e-06 5.000e-09 9.375e-27

5.000e-05 7.500e-01 9.500e-01 5.000e-06 1.000e-09 5.000e-08 8.906e-27

5.000e-06 5.000e-09 1.000e-07 3.500e-01 1.000e-01 1.000e-04 8.750e-27

5.000e-05 1.000e-04 5.000e-09 6.000e-01 4.000e-01 1.000e-09 6.000e-27

5.000e-05 4.500e-01 5.000e-05 1.000e-07 5.000e-07 1.000e-04 5.625e-27

5.000e-05 1.000e-08 4.000e-01 5.000e-08 5.500e-01 1.000e-06 5.500e-27

1.000e-08 5.000e-07 6.000e-01 5.000e-07 1.000e-05 3.500e-01 5.250e-27

1.000e-08 5.000e-06 4.000e-01 1.000e-07 5.000e-01 5.000e-06 5.000e-27

1.000e-03 5.000e-06 1.000e-04 9.900e-01 1.000e-06 1.000e-08 4.950e-27

5.000e-06 9.000e-01 5.000e-08 1.000e-06 2.000e-01 1.000e-07 4.500e-27

3.500e-01 1.000e-04 5.000e-07 5.000e-03 1.000e-09 5.000e-05 4.375e-27

5.000e-03 5.000e-05 5.000e-07 1.000e-06 1.000e-07 3.500e-01 4.375e-27

5.500e-01 1.000e-09 3.000e-01 5.000e-08 5.000e-08 1.000e-02 4.125e-27

1.000e-09 1.000e-01 4.000e-01 1.000e-07 1.000e-02 1.000e-07 4.000e-27

1.000e-01 5.000e-09 3.000e-01 5.000e-06 5.000e-03 1.000e-09 3.750e-27

5.000e-09 4.000e-01 1.000e-06 5.000e-06 6.500e-01 5.000e-07 3.250e-27

1.000e-01 1.000e-09 4.000e-01 5.000e-08 1.000e-08 1.500e-01 3.000e-27

9.500e-01 1.000e-05 1.000e-09 5.000e-08 5.500e-01 1.000e-05 2.613e-27

9.990e-01 5.000e-09 5.000e-08 5.000e-05 4.000e-01 5.000e-07 2.498e-27

1.000e-09 9.990e-01 5.000e-02 1.000e-03 5.000e-07 1.000e-07 2.498e-27

1.000e-07 1.000e-02 1.000e-06 5.000e-06 1.000e-06 4.500e-01 2.250e-27

Page 58: Bureau of Reclamation · Created Date: 11/18/2004 6:27:54 PM

Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 58

Probability of

Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”

1.000e-06 1.000e-08 1.000e-04 3.000e-01 7.500e-01 1.000e-08 2.250e-27

1.500e-01 1.000e-06 1.000e-03 1.500e-01 1.000e-08 1.000e-08 2.250e-27

1.000e-07 4.500e-01 1.000e-02 1.000e-03 5.000e-09 1.000e-06 2.250e-27

1.000e-09 1.000e-08 8.500e-01 1.000e-03 5.000e-06 5.000e-02 2.125e-27

5.000e-06 8.500e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-09 9.900e-01 1.000e-08 2.104e-27

5.000e-05 5.500e-01 3.000e-01 5.000e-09 1.000e-06 5.000e-08 2.063e-27

9.990e-01 1.000e-09 1.000e-09 5.000e-05 6.500e-01 5.000e-05 1.623e-27

5.500e-01 5.000e-05 1.000e-08 1.000e-03 5.000e-04 1.000e-08 1.375e-27

4.000e-01 5.000e-05 5.000e-06 5.000e-07 5.000e-03 5.000e-09 1.250e-27

1.500e-01 1.000e-04 5.000e-07 1.000e-07 3.000e-01 5.000e-09 1.125e-27

5.000e-06 1.000e-04 7.500e-01 5.000e-08 1.000e-03 5.000e-08 9.375e-28

1.000e-04 1.000e-03 1.000e-05 1.500e-01 1.000e-09 5.000e-06 7.500e-28

1.000e-09 4.000e-01 7.500e-01 5.000e-07 5.000e-07 1.000e-05 7.500e-28

1.000e-04 1.000e-09 2.000e-01 1.000e-05 1.000e-08 3.500e-01 7.000e-28

1.000e-09 5.000e-08 1.000e-06 5.000e-05 4.000e-01 6.500e-01 6.500e-28

8.500e-01 1.000e-08 5.000e-08 5.000e-08 5.000e-01 5.000e-05 5.313e-28

1.000e-04 1.000e-06 1.000e-09 5.000e-06 1.000e-01 1.000e-02 5.000e-28

1.000e-09 1.000e-09 2.000e-01 1.000e-03 5.000e-03 5.000e-04 5.000e-28

5.000e-06 1.000e-06 1.000e-08 8.000e-01 1.000e-06 1.000e-02 4.000e-28

1.000e-09 1.000e-01 5.000e-08 3.000e-01 5.000e-07 5.000e-04 3.750e-28

9.990e-01 5.000e-09 5.000e-06 5.000e-04 5.000e-07 5.000e-05 3.122e-28

1.000e-09 8.500e-01 1.000e-05 1.000e-06 5.000e-08 6.500e-01 2.763e-28

1.000e-09 9.990e-01 1.000e-08 1.000e-02 5.500e-01 5.000e-09 2.747e-28

1.000e-04 1.000e-03 5.000e-06 5.000e-06 1.000e-06 1.000e-04 2.500e-28

1.000e-09 1.000e-04 1.000e-02 1.000e-08 5.000e-03 5.000e-03 2.500e-28

1.000e-01 2.000e-01 1.000e-08 1.000e-08 1.000e-01 1.000e-09 2.000e-28

4.000e-01 1.000e-03 5.000e-08 5.000e-08 1.000e-09 2.000e-01 2.000e-28

4.000e-01 1.000e-09 1.000e-07 5.000e-08 9.500e-01 1.000e-04 1.900e-28

Page 59: Bureau of Reclamation · Created Date: 11/18/2004 6:27:54 PM

Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 59

Probability of

Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”

1.000e-04 5.000e-09 6.500e-01 1.000e-07 5.000e-01 1.000e-08 1.625e-28

5.000e-05 1.000e-06 1.000e-08 5.500e-01 1.000e-05 5.000e-05 1.375e-28

9.500e-01 1.000e-01 5.000e-05 5.000e-09 1.000e-09 5.000e-06 1.188e-28

3.000e-01 1.000e-08 6.500e-01 1.000e-07 5.000e-09 1.000e-04 9.750e-29

1.000e-07 1.000e-08 2.500e-01 1.500e-01 5.000e-05 5.000e-08 9.375e-29

3.500e-01 5.000e-07 5.000e-07 1.000e-07 1.000e-05 1.000e-03 8.750e-29

5.000e-09 7.000e-01 1.000e-08 5.000e-07 9.500e-01 5.000e-06 8.313e-29

1.000e-06 1.000e-09 1.500e-01 1.000e-08 9.500e-01 5.000e-05 7.125e-29

1.000e-02 1.000e-03 1.000e-09 1.000e-03 5.000e-07 1.000e-05 5.000e-29

1.000e-08 1.000e-05 9.990e-01 5.000e-08 1.000e-05 1.000e-03 4.995e-29

1.000e-09 1.500e-01 1.000e-08 1.000e-07 2.000e-01 1.000e-03 3.000e-29

1.000e-09 1.000e-08 5.000e-01 5.000e-05 9.900e-01 1.000e-07 2.475e-29

5.000e-08 1.000e-08 1.000e-08 7.500e-01 9.900e-01 5.000e-06 1.856e-29

1.000e-01 1.000e-08 1.000e-07 3.500e-01 5.000e-05 1.000e-08 1.750e-29

5.000e-09 5.000e-09 1.000e-04 1.000e-06 1.000e-02 6.500e-01 1.625e-29

1.000e-09 1.500e-01 5.000e-08 5.000e-08 7.000e-01 5.000e-05 1.313e-29

5.000e-03 5.000e-09 1.500e-01 5.000e-06 5.000e-06 1.000e-07 9.375e-30

3.500e-01 5.000e-09 1.000e-02 1.000e-06 1.000e-06 5.000e-07 8.750e-30

1.000e-05 1.000e-09 4.500e-01 7.500e-01 5.000e-07 5.000e-09 8.438e-30

5.000e-05 5.000e-09 6.000e-01 1.000e-02 5.000e-07 1.000e-08 7.500e-30

1.000e-03 5.000e-07 5.000e-07 5.000e-05 1.000e-05 5.000e-05 6.250e-30

1.000e-05 1.000e-05 5.000e-08 5.000e-07 5.000e-01 5.000e-06 6.250e-30

5.000e-05 1.000e-06 5.000e-08 5.000e-08 5.000e-03 1.000e-02 6.250e-30

5.000e-06 1.000e-08 1.000e-08 1.000e-07 3.500e-01 3.500e-01 6.125e-30

5.000e-09 1.000e-08 1.000e-07 1.500e-01 6.500e-01 1.000e-05 4.875e-30

4.500e-01 1.000e-04 1.000e-08 1.000e-08 1.000e-07 1.000e-02 4.500e-30

1.000e-03 5.000e-05 1.000e-08 5.000e-08 5.000e-07 3.500e-01 4.375e-30

5.000e-05 3.000e-01 5.000e-08 1.000e-06 1.000e-06 5.000e-06 3.750e-30

Page 60: Bureau of Reclamation · Created Date: 11/18/2004 6:27:54 PM

Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 60

Probability of

Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”

5.000e-09 1.000e-03 1.500e-01 1.000e-03 1.000e-07 5.000e-08 3.750e-30

5.000e-05 1.000e-06 7.500e-01 1.000e-06 1.000e-06 1.000e-07 3.750e-30

5.000e-06 5.000e-02 1.000e-09 5.000e-02 5.000e-08 5.000e-06 3.125e-30

5.000e-09 2.500e-01 1.000e-06 1.000e-07 4.000e-01 5.000e-08 2.500e-30

5.000e-02 5.000e-09 2.000e-01 5.000e-08 1.000e-06 1.000e-06 2.500e-30

9.500e-01 1.000e-03 1.000e-08 1.000e-03 5.000e-08 5.000e-09 2.375e-30

1.000e-05 1.000e-09 5.000e-09 3.000e-01 1.000e-06 1.500e-01 2.250e-30

1.000e-05 1.000e-06 3.000e-01 1.000e-05 1.000e-08 5.000e-06 1.500e-30

5.000e-05 1.000e-09 2.000e-01 5.000e-06 5.000e-07 5.000e-05 1.250e-30

5.000e-09 1.000e-05 4.500e-01 5.000e-06 1.000e-07 1.000e-04 1.125e-30

1.000e-05 1.000e-05 1.000e-05 1.000e-05 1.000e-05 1.000e-05 1.000e-30

2.000e-01 1.000e-08 5.000e-04 1.000e-08 1.000e-06 1.000e-04 1.000e-30

1.000e-09 1.000e-05 9.990e-01 1.000e-05 1.000e-06 1.000e-05 9.990e-31

1.500e-01 5.000e-09 5.000e-09 5.000e-06 1.000e-05 5.000e-03 9.375e-31

1.000e-09 3.500e-01 1.000e-07 1.000e-04 5.000e-03 5.000e-08 8.750e-31

1.500e-01 5.000e-09 5.000e-08 3.500e-01 5.000e-07 1.000e-07 6.563e-31

5.000e-06 1.000e-09 9.990e-01 1.000e-07 1.000e-09 9.900e-01 4.945e-31

1.000e-01 1.000e-05 4.500e-01 1.000e-09 1.000e-07 1.000e-08 4.500e-31

5.000e-09 2.500e-01 3.000e-01 1.000e-06 1.000e-06 1.000e-09 3.750e-31

5.000e-07 5.000e-09 5.000e-07 5.000e-08 5.000e-01 1.000e-02 3.125e-31

1.000e-09 5.000e-06 1.000e-02 5.000e-03 1.000e-05 5.000e-08 1.250e-31

1.000e-09 1.000e-05 5.000e-08 1.000e-03 5.000e-06 5.000e-02 1.250e-31

5.000e-09 5.000e-09 1.000e-01 5.000e-05 2.000e-01 5.000e-09 1.250e-31

5.000e-08 9.990e-01 5.000e-07 1.000e-06 1.000e-06 5.000e-06 1.249e-31

1.000e-08 5.000e-07 5.000e-07 1.000e-06 9.500e-01 5.000e-05 1.188e-31

5.000e-05 5.000e-09 5.000e-08 1.000e-06 8.500e-01 5.000e-06 5.313e-32

8.000e-01 1.000e-07 1.000e-08 5.000e-06 1.000e-09 1.000e-02 4.000e-32

1.000e-09 1.000e-09 1.000e-05 1.500e-01 1.000e-07 2.500e-01 3.750e-32

Page 61: Bureau of Reclamation · Created Date: 11/18/2004 6:27:54 PM

Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 61

Probability of

Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”

1.000e-09 5.000e-09 1.000e-08 3.000e-01 3.000e-01 5.000e-06 2.250e-32

5.000e-06 5.000e-06 5.000e-06 5.000e-06 5.000e-06 5.000e-06 1.563e-32

1.000e-08 1.000e-06 1.000e-09 1.000e-06 1.000e-03 7.000e-01 7.000e-33

1.500e-01 5.000e-09 5.000e-06 5.000e-09 1.000e-09 3.500e-01 6.563e-33

5.000e-03 1.000e-09 2.000e-01 1.000e-06 1.000e-09 5.000e-06 5.000e-33

5.000e-03 5.000e-09 5.000e-08 5.000e-08 5.000e-07 1.500e-01 4.688e-33

5.000e-06 2.500e-01 1.000e-08 1.000e-07 5.000e-09 5.000e-04 3.125e-33

1.000e-08 1.000e-04 6.000e-01 5.000e-08 1.000e-07 1.000e-06 3.000e-33

5.000e-09 6.500e-01 1.000e-07 1.000e-05 1.000e-05 5.000e-08 1.625e-33

1.000e-09 5.000e-04 1.000e-02 1.000e-03 5.000e-09 5.000e-08 1.250e-33

5.000e-01 1.000e-09 2.000e-01 5.000e-07 5.000e-09 5.000e-09 1.250e-33

5.000e-09 1.000e-05 6.000e-01 5.000e-08 1.000e-08 5.000e-05 7.500e-34

1.000e-07 1.000e-04 3.000e-01 5.000e-09 1.000e-09 5.000e-05 7.500e-34

5.000e-09 5.000e-09 1.500e-01 1.000e-03 1.000e-05 1.000e-08 3.750e-34

1.000e-06 5.000e-02 5.000e-06 5.000e-08 5.000e-07 5.000e-08 3.125e-34

5.000e-06 9.500e-01 1.000e-05 1.000e-09 1.000e-09 5.000e-06 2.375e-34

1.000e-08 1.000e-09 5.000e-06 5.000e-03 1.000e-09 8.500e-01 2.125e-34

3.500e-01 1.000e-05 1.000e-09 1.000e-06 1.000e-08 5.000e-06 1.750e-34

5.000e-06 5.000e-07 1.000e-09 5.000e-09 1.000e-05 8.500e-01 1.063e-34

1.000e-08 5.000e-02 5.000e-08 5.000e-08 1.000e-09 5.000e-02 6.250e-35

5.500e-01 5.000e-09 5.000e-07 1.000e-08 5.000e-08 5.000e-05 3.438e-35

1.000e-03 1.000e-09 5.000e-05 5.000e-06 1.000e-05 1.000e-08 2.500e-35

1.000e-09 1.000e-06 5.000e-08 1.000e-08 5.000e-05 5.000e-01 1.250e-35

5.000e-05 9.000e-01 5.000e-08 5.000e-08 1.000e-07 1.000e-09 1.125e-35

1.000e-09 5.000e-07 5.000e-05 1.000e-06 5.000e-05 5.000e-06 6.250e-36

1.000e-04 1.000e-05 1.000e-03 5.000e-08 5.000e-09 5.000e-09 1.250e-36

1.000e-06 1.000e-06 1.000e-06 1.000e-06 1.000e-06 1.000e-06 1.000e-36

5.000e-09 5.000e-05 5.000e-07 1.000e-06 1.000e-06 1.000e-06 1.250e-37

Page 62: Bureau of Reclamation · Created Date: 11/18/2004 6:27:54 PM

Appendix 13, Iterative analysis of simple probabilities 62

Probability of

Missouri Transfer to Control Control Establishing a Intersection of Transferred Expression of Adverse Outcome as River Input System System Failure Sustainable Population Biota & Receptor Effect in Receptor “Successful Invasion”

5.000e-06 5.000e-09 1.000e-05 1.000e-03 1.000e-09 1.000e-07 2.500e-38

5.000e-07 5.000e-07 5.000e-07 5.000e-07 5.000e-07 5.000e-07 1.563e-38

5.000e-01 1.000e-09 5.000e-08 1.000e-07 5.000e-07 1.000e-08 1.250e-38

1.000e-08 1.000e-05 5.000e-07 1.000e-06 1.000e-08 5.000e-06 2.500e-39

1.000e-07 1.000e-07 1.000e-07 1.000e-07 1.000e-07 1.000e-07 1.000e-42

5.000e-08 5.000e-08 5.000e-08 5.000e-08 5.000e-08 5.000e-08 1.563e-44

1.000e-08 1.000e-08 1.000e-08 1.000e-08 1.000e-08 1.000e-08 1.000e-48

5.000e-09 5.000e-09 5.000e-09 5.000e-09 5.000e-09 5.000e-09 1.563e-50

1.000e-09 1.000e-09 1.000e-09 1.000e-09 1.000e-09 1.000e-09 1.000e-54