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Bureau of Rural Sciences

The Big Shift: Business implications of demographicand cultural change in Australia

Bernard Salt

Author The Big Shift

Partner KPMG Australia

11 June 2004

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The push from the bush … out with RMWilliams … in with Billabong

• Suburban culture emerged during the 20th Century• Provincial coastal culture now ascendant • Underpinned by lifestyle-seeking baby boomers• Edna Everage; Neighbours 1985; Kath & Kim 2002

2001

Inner city5%

Suburbia58%

Rural18%

Coastal19%

1901

Inner city25%

Suburbia15%

Rural52%

Coastal8%

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1. Gold Coast 16,099

2. Casey 10,878

3. Wyndham 7,298

4. Brisbane SW 7,048

5. Melton 6,927

6. Brisbane NW 6,426

7. Pine Rivers 6,208

8. Wanneroo 5,545

9. Maroochy 4,931

10. Sydney 4,461

“We’re goin’a surf city … gonna have somefun”

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Why population shifts are important tobusiness

10,000 extra residents support job growth, eg:

• 3,700 new suburban households, or

• 6,700 new inner-city households

• $70 million in new retail spending*

• $25 million in new supermarket spending*

• _ a Kmart

• One cinema screen

• 7,500 cubic metres of pre mix concrete

Population loss reverse these markets

*includes GST

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Bleeding bush … and the blooming beach

NaroomaNowra-Bomaderry

Port StephensPort MacquarieCoffs Harbour

Gold CoastCaloundraNoosa

Hervey Bay

Yeppoon

WhitsundayTownsville

Port Douglas

MacedonRanges

Roxby Downs

Denmark

East Pilbara

Ngaanyatjarraku

Leonora

Wiluna

Katherine

Broome

Palmerston

Busselton

Geraldton

Augusta-MargaretRiver

Losers

Winners

Victor Harbor

Sorell

Areas of population lossand growth between 1976and 2003

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The national spotlight as catalyst for growth

• Echuca fastest growing townin inland Victoria at 3.1% pa

• Golf, angling, wine grapegrowing, access to Melbournemarket, manufacturingCedenco and Heinz

• Port of Echuca revitalised forAll the Rivers Run 1987

• Barwon Heads fastestgrowing coastal town inVictoria at 3.4% pa

• Seachange 1998

• Towns thrust into the nationalspotlight suddenly growbecause of … The Sigrid Effect

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LGAs 132

Population – 2003 3,848

– 2002 3,780

Growth 2002/03 68,147

Population 1976 2,201

Growth 1976-2003 1,648

Almost 4 million Australians live on thecoast outside a capital city

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1997 58,910 1.7 1.1 0.6

1998 52,706 1.5 1.1 0.5

1999 53,944 1.5 1.2 0.5

2000 60,444 1.7 1.2 0.6

2001 61,805 1.7 1.4 0.8

2002 62,006 1.7 1.2 0.5

2003 68,381 1.8 1.2 0.5

The clamour for the coast is unstoppable

Coast

No. % Metro % Rural %

• Coast’s population annually surges by 53,000 – 68,000

• Coast adds about 1 dwelling per couple

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Australians rush to the coast

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Coastal lifestyle towns are the preferred destinations forAustralians on the move

Mount Barker

Echuca

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Gen Y Gen X BB11-25 26-40 41-55(000) (000) (000)

Australia

1997 3,916 4,261 4,074

2002 4,058 4,380 4,105

Change 142 119 31

Sydney’s share 69 36 -9

Melbourne’s share 63 21 -4

Total 132 57 -13

Generation Xers drawn to Sydney …Boomers headed for the coast

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ß Computing Elite: systemsmanager & designer; softwaredesigner; applications &analyst programmer 32,926 25,423 30%

ß Accounting Elite: accountant,external/internal auditor, corporatetreasurer 37,728 26,734 41%

ß Legal Elite: barrister, solicitor 11,193 7,217 55%

ß Finance Elite: stockbroker,futures trader; financial marketdealer; commodities trader 4,172 2,018 107%

Commercial jobs gravitate to Sydney

Sydney Melbourne Difference

ß Beauty Therapist 3,175 2,305 38%

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-100000

-50000

0

5 0000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

Natural Increase Net Migration Total

Aussies slide towards natural decrease …implications for immigration levels

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Recession

BabyBoom

1975crisis

Fertilitydecline

Boomers die off 2035Natural decrease

19888.5 19.4 25.4

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Growing DecliningPhoenix +950 Baltimore -85Los Angeles +1,467 Philadelphia -68Houston +582 Pittsburgh -55Fort Lauderdale +368 Detroit -50Dallas +366 St Louis -48

LAPhoenixDallas

HoustonFort Lauderdale

St Louis

Detroit

Pittsburgh

PhiladelphiaBaltimore

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Inter-city commuting on the rise …Australians pursue lifestyle options

14%4,531Brisbane – Sunshine Coast6.

18%5,656Perth – Mandurah5.

18%10,146Melbourne – Geelong4.

1%11,519Sydney – Newcastle3.

23%15,195Brisbane – Gold Coast2.

19%18,239Sydney – Wollongong1.

Changesince 96

2001

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Chic-house city living

• Out with Neighbours … in with Friends, Seinfeld, Sex andthe City, The Secret Life of Us

• Out with the stubbie … in with elegant longneck boutiquebeer bottles with a designer label

Sydney 8,258

Brisbane 6,684

Melbourne 5,093

Perth 1,467

Canberra 877

Adelaide 478

Darwin 424

Hobart -216

Total 23,065

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0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1921 1933 1947 1954 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

The ageing of the average Aussie bride …is prompting three distinct phases in life

Xer brides 29 in 2001

Bridegrooms

Baby boomer brideswere 21 in 1971

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Women want to work … and will makefurther gains by 2016

-100

1020304050607080

15-19 20-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-59 60-64 65+

1981 1998 2016

%

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No real change to male participation rates

-100

102030405060708090

100

15-19 20-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-59 60-64 65+

1981 1998 2016

%

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0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

1946 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051

Year

Po

pu

lati

on

Baby boomers just won’t die!

Source: ABS Censuses; ABS Series B Projections September 2003

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It doesn’t get any better after 43-48

40

5430

25

70

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

$40,000

15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75 78 81 84 87 90 93 96 99

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

Born 1931

‘Rich’ live longer

Boomer mid-pointTotal populationby single year

Pre-boomer’sslide

Boomers at their peak until June 2006 … then the slide begins

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20-something 50-something

2003 2.739m 2.464m

2026 2.938m 3.089m

Change +7% +25%

Trendy to be fifty … in 2026

Source: ABS Project Series B September 2003; ABS 3101.0 December 2003

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The Shakira conspiracy

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Why is the average Aussie bride ageing …and what are her prospects?

Males 537,000 727,000

Females 352,000 568,000

Ratio 1.53:1 1.28:1

25-34 never married 1991 2001

• Unattached blokes grew by 35%

• Unattached women grew by 61%

• Conclusion: Australian women are “raising the bar”

Why are there so many eligible youngbachelors in Sydney?

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Sydney’s Menopolis

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Belconnen … Canberra’s Menopolis

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Further information & contact

• The Big Shift 2 – $19.95rrp

• Bernard Salt’s column appears in TheAustralian every second Thursday (next – 24June)

• Bernard Salt’s column appears monthly inProperty Australia

• Bernard Salt’s column appears monthly inMELBOURNE Magazine

• Australia 2025 by Bernard Salt, publishedSMH Spectrum, PDF available on request

• Contact: Bernard Salt (03) 9288 5047;bsalt@kpmg.com.au; www.thebigshift.com