busincess cycle forecasting: the endurance test for (macro-) … · 2017-11-21 · » world free...
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1KOOTHS | Business Cycle Forecasting: The Endurance Test for (Macro-) Economics
Busincess Cycle Forecasting:The Endurance Test for (Macro-) Economics
Advance Studies Program | Kiel, 21st November 2017
Prof. Dr. Stefan KoothsForecasting Center
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2KOOTHS | Business Cycle Forecasting: The Endurance Test for (Macro-) Economics
Outline
▪ The Forecasting Center
▪ Methodology of business cycle forecasts
▪ The Joint Economic Outlook for Germany (Autumn 2017)
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3KOOTHS | Business Cycle Forecasting: The Endurance Test for (Macro-) Economics
Outline
▪ The Forecasting Center
▪ Methodology of business cycle forecasts
▪ The Joint Economic Outlook for Germany (Autumn 2017)
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4KOOTHS | Business Cycle Forecasting: The Endurance Test for (Macro-) Economics
The Forecasting Center at the Kiel Institute
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5KOOTHS | Business Cycle Forecasting: The Endurance Test for (Macro-) Economics
The FC’s role within the Kiel Institute
Ongoing diagnosis of global economic developments and policy challenges
MacroeconomicThink Tank
Business Cycle Analysis Unit
ForecastingCenter
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6KOOTHS | Business Cycle Forecasting: The Endurance Test for (Macro-) Economics
Bringing together theoretical expertise, empirical evidence, and institutional knowledge
Coordinationist paradigm of macroeconomics
ForecastingCenter
ResearchAreas
(Academia)
PoliticsBusiness
General public(Society)
ConsultingMethods
ProblemsImpulse
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7KOOTHS | Business Cycle Forecasting: The Endurance Test for (Macro-) Economics
Forecasting and foresight
▪ Quantitative Forecasting: Economic Outlook» Most likely macroeconomic environment
» Detailed empirical analysis
» Input for decision makers (government, business)
Business Cycle Analysis
▪ Qualitative Forecasting (Foresight): Pattern Prediction» Identifying instabilities (non-sustainable trends)
» Early-warning mechanisms
» Design of robust governance systems (“Ordnungsökonomik”)
Macroeconomic Think Tank
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8KOOTHS | Business Cycle Forecasting: The Endurance Test for (Macro-) Economics
The overarching theme
If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.
Herbert Stein
In the economic sphere, an act, a habit, an institution, a law produces not only one effect, but a series of effects. Of these
effects, the first alone is immediate; it appears simultaneously with its cause; it is seen. The other effects emerge only subsequently;
they are not seen; we are fortunate if we foresee them.
Frédéric Bastiat
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9KOOTHS | Business Cycle Forecasting: The Endurance Test for (Macro-) Economics
12 reportsper year
Bi-annual cooperation
projects
Economic Outlooks
ECB survey of economic forecasters
Consensus Economics
FocusEconomics
▪ Quarterly reports» World economy
» Germany
▪ Bi-annual reports» Euro area
» Medium-term (Germany)including potential output
▪ Joint Forecast
▪ Official Tax Revenue Projections
▪ European Networks» AIECE
» EUROFRAME
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10KOOTHS | Business Cycle Forecasting: The Endurance Test for (Macro-) Economics
KKG: Kieler Konjunkturgespräche
▪ Flagship conference» International two-day-long event
» Business cycle analysis and global economic affairs
» Sharing research outcomes and platform for policy debate
» Spring (Kiel) and Autumn (Berlin: Embassies); 96th edition and counting
▪ Expert exchange and dialogue with decision makers» Forecasters, macroeconomists
» Policy makers, NGOs
» Business leaders (more emphasis here)
▪ Funding (since 2015)» Participation fees
» Autumn: Sponsoring by World Economic Council
» Spring: Envisaged cooperation with Confederation of Northern German Employers/Industry (UV Nord/BDI); ZBW Hamburg as alternative venue
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11KOOTHS | Business Cycle Forecasting: The Endurance Test for (Macro-) Economics
Policy-related research projects: Germany (1/2)
▪ Scientific advisory services to German participants in the Output Gaps Working Group (OGWG) of the European Union
» German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy (BMWi), 2015-2017
Jens Boysen-Hogrefe/Martin Ademmer
▪ Scientific advisory services to German participants in the Working Group on the Methodology to assess Lisbon related structural reforms (LIME)of the Economic Policy Committee of the European Union
» German Federal Ministry of Finance (BMF), since 2015
Jens Boysen-Hogrefe/Dominik Groll
▪ Macroeconomic country monitoring (DIWAX)» German Federal Ministry of Finance (BMF), 2012-2015 and ongoing follow-up service contract
Nils Jannsen
▪ Productivity in Germany - Measurement and Drivers» German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy (BMWi)
» German Federal Ministry of Finance (BMF), 2016/2017
Martin Ademmer
joint work with RA “The Global Division of Labor”
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12KOOTHS | Business Cycle Forecasting: The Endurance Test for (Macro-) Economics
Policy-related research projects: Germany (2/2)
▪ Estimating potential output and the output gap – An analysis of revisions and cyclicality
» German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy (BMWi), 2017/2018
Martin Ademmer
▪ Economic impact of German FDI and the current account» German Federal Ministry of Finance (BMF), 2017/2018
Galina Potjagailo
joint work with RA “The Global Division of Labor”
▪ Policy options for reducing the German current account surplus» German Federal Ministry of Finance (BMF), input to G20 negotiations, 2017
Nils Jannsen
▪ The European Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure – Assessment and reform proposals
» German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy (BMWi), 2013/2014
Nils Jannsen
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13KOOTHS | Business Cycle Forecasting: The Endurance Test for (Macro-) Economics
Economic Policy Workshops (2015/2016)» German Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy (BMWi)
▪ Labor Markets in the Digital Economy
▪ Modelling Long-term Growth Perspectives for the German Economy
▪ Competition Policy within the Digital Agenda: The “Relevant Market” Paradigm in the Digital Age
▪ The Consequences of BREXIT for the Transatlantic Trade Relationship and for the Strategic Focus of Transatlantic Trade Policy
Dominik Groll
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14KOOTHS | Business Cycle Forecasting: The Endurance Test for (Macro-) Economics
Policy-related research projects: European Union» European Parliament
▪ Scientific advisory services to the European Parliament's Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs supporting the Monetary Dialogue with the European Central Bank (2015-2020)
» Quarterly briefing papers» Hearings at the EU parliament
Nils Jannsen
▪ Special assignments
» Economic policy coordination in the euro area under the European Semester (2015)
» Euro area fiscal stance: Measurement, implementation and democratic legitimacy (2016)
Ulrich Stolzenburg
joint work with “RA Poverty Reduction, Equity, and Development”
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15KOOTHS | Business Cycle Forecasting: The Endurance Test for (Macro-) Economics
Policy-related research projects: Rest of the World
▪ Medium-term Economic Plan for Dubai» Government of Dubai, Department for Economic Development, 2011/2012
Stefan Kooths
Cooperation with TechnoPark/Dubai Institute of Technology (DIT), Fraunhofer Institute for ProductionSystems and Design Technology (Fraunhofer IPK)
▪ Macroeconomic model of the Egyptian economy for medium-term scenarios
» Egyptian Center for Economic Studies (ECES), 2014/2015
Klaus-Jürgen Gern/Philipp Hauber
▪ World Freezones Economic Outlook (report and economic sentiment)» World Free Zones Organization (World FZO), 2017-2022 (ready for signature)
Klaus-Jürgen Gern
▪ Macroeconomic advisory services on medium-term socio-economic planning and forecasting
» Government of Viet Nam, (planning stage)
Philipp Hauber
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16KOOTHS | Business Cycle Forecasting: The Endurance Test for (Macro-) Economics
Outline
▪ The Forecasting Center
▪ Methodology of business cycle forecasts
▪ The Joint Economic Outlook for Germany (Autumn 2017)
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17KOOTHS | Business Cycle Forecasting: The Endurance Test for (Macro-) Economics
Economic growth and the business cycle: Potential output vs. capacity utilization
production
time
Capacity utilization > normal Capacity utilization < normal
Capacity utilization
(Contraction)
Capacity utilization
(Expansion)
Boom
CoolingRecession
Recovery
actual
production
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18KOOTHS | Business Cycle Forecasting: The Endurance Test for (Macro-) Economics
Disentangling cycle and trend
▪ Interpretation:Deviations from trend interpreted as …» … output gap (fluctuations in capacity utilization)
» … technology shocks („real business cycles“)
Theory matters!
▪ Methodology:Smoothing actual production» Direct: Statistical filtering (e.g. HP-Filter)
» Indirect: Estimating an aggregate production function (Cobb-Douglas)
Econometrics matter!
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19KOOTHS | Business Cycle Forecasting: The Endurance Test for (Macro-) Economics
Case study Spain: Value of the capital stock?
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Net fixed capital formation (rhs)
Net capital stock (2005 prices)
Bn. Euro Bn. Euro
Source: AMECO Database.
Nolevelshift?
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20KOOTHS | Business Cycle Forecasting: The Endurance Test for (Macro-) Economics
Case study Spain: The output gap in 2005Estimations of the European Commission
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21KOOTHS | Business Cycle Forecasting: The Endurance Test for (Macro-) Economics
National Accounts
▪ Fundamental framework for empirical macroeconomics
▪ System for recording economic flows and stocks» Activity (production, use, distribution)
» Sectors (companies, pr. households, government, RoW)
» Industries, products, ...
» Key: Knowledge of concepts and pitfalls (knowing the data)
▪ Global harmonization» UN: System of National Accounts (SNA)
» EU: European System of Accounts (ESA), derived from SNA
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22KOOTHS | Business Cycle Forecasting: The Endurance Test for (Macro-) Economics
Epistemology: Science vs. coffee cup
▪ Science-based precision
▪ Methodological fundamentals» Formulating regular patterns (hypotheses)
» Describing application conditions (diagnosis)
Inter-subjective understanding of forecasts
▪ Theory: Are there economic laws?» Models should not cover all details of the real world
» Key problem: structural breaks at the data edge
▪ Applicability» Imperfect measurement of economic activity
» Assumptions/settings remain indispensable
▪ Problem of endogeneity (expectation formation)
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23KOOTHS | Business Cycle Forecasting: The Endurance Test for (Macro-) Economics
The business of business cycle forecasting
▪ General assessment of short-term economic trends» Fluctuations of economic activity
» Forecasting horizon up to 3 years (beyond: medium-term projections)
» Data edge: Flash estimates
▪ Components» Diagnosis of the current economic situation
» Assumptions on key driving forces(e.g. raw material prices, exchange rates, monetary/fiscal policies)
» Time series forecasts for a comprehensive battery of variables(e.g. GDP, inflation rate, employment, …)
» Explanations („Story telling“)
» Scenarios and policy simulations
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24KOOTHS | Business Cycle Forecasting: The Endurance Test for (Macro-) Economics
Key data source: National accounts
▪ Frequency: Quarters» Flash announcement (GDP): 4 to 5 weeks
» Components (use/production): 7 weeks
▪ Revisions» Ongoing: Up to 3 years
» Major: Every 5 years
» Methodological (NA framework): Approx. every 15 years
▪ Regional data: „National accounts of the Länder“
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25KOOTHS | Business Cycle Forecasting: The Endurance Test for (Macro-) Economics
Data revisions: Private consumption spendingAs of 2015-Q3 vs. 2015-Q2
Quartalswerte, preisbereinigt. Ursprungswerte (links), saison- und kalenderbereinigte Werte (rechts).
Linie: Index (2010 = 100, linke Achsen), Balken: Veränderung gegenüber dem Vorquartal in Prozent (rechte Achsen).
Datenstand: August 2015 im Vergleich zu Mai 2015 (Baseline); rot: Abwärtsrevision, grün: Aufwärtsrevision.
Quelle: Statistisches Bundesamt, Fachserie 18, Reihe 1.2 und 1.3; Prognosen des IfW (Herbst und Sommer 2015).
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26KOOTHS | Business Cycle Forecasting: The Endurance Test for (Macro-) Economics
Data interpretation
▪ Separation of volume and price (deflating)» Constant prices vs. chain-linking
» Fragile price data (in particular for stock quantities)
» Qualitative quantity: Hedonic pricing
▪ Seasonal and working-day adjustments» Key for interpreting activity at the data edge
» Alternative approaches (e.g. Census-X12-Arima, BV4)
▪ Smoothing» Outlier vs. cycle dynamics
» Cycle vs. trend
▪ Statistical mechanics» Overhang
» Cyclical growth rates vs. cycles in capacity utilization
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27KOOTHS | Business Cycle Forecasting: The Endurance Test for (Macro-) Economics
Data availability
▪ Estimated past („backcasting“)» Statistical offices massively estimate at the data edge
» Revisions
▪ Regional accounts» Limited set of time series compared to national accounts
» Time lags up to three years
» Almost no quarterly data
» Top-down, not bottom-up
▪ Sectorial imbalance» The more important a sector is (weight in terms of value-added), ...
» ... the less data is available.
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28KOOTHS | Business Cycle Forecasting: The Endurance Test for (Macro-) Economics
Branches of economic activityShare in value-added (percent, data for 2016)
Agriculture, forestry and fishing
1%
Industry (including construction)
30%
Services69%
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29KOOTHS | Business Cycle Forecasting: The Endurance Test for (Macro-) Economics
Methodology
▪ Data edge: Leading indicators» Business climate, incoming orders, capacity utilization, …
» Current and subsequent quarter
▪ Time series models» Statistical correlations
» Probabilistic approach, not necessarily theory-based
▪ Macroeconomic structural models» Linking economic theory and time data
» Trade off: Theoretical soundness vs. statistical fit (data edge!)
▪ Iterative-analytical approach» Integration of expert knowledge (e.g. first-time events)
» National accounts framework: Plausibility, consistency
» Research: AI-supported reasoning
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30KOOTHS | Business Cycle Forecasting: The Endurance Test for (Macro-) Economics
German economic outlook
Potential output and medium-term projections
Short-term forecast
Export markets and world trade
Euro area (ex DE)
Economic and
fiscal policy
Global economic outlook
External factors
Co
mp
on
en
ts
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31KOOTHS | Business Cycle Forecasting: The Endurance Test for (Macro-) Economics
Fiscal sector (budget analysis)
Labor market
External environment
GDP
Value added by
industry
Source Use
Private consumption
Public consumption
Public investment
M&E investment
Corporate construction
Dwellings
Other investment
Imports Exports
Wages
Employment
Unemployment
Export marketsPrice
competitiveness
Social Security
Taxes
Transfers
Expenditure
(goods+services)
Goods and production account
5.3
5.4
Disp. Inc. 5.5
5.6.15.6.2
5.6.4Lager
5.7
5.8
5.9
5.10
Iterative-analytic approach
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32KOOTHS | Business Cycle Forecasting: The Endurance Test for (Macro-) Economics
Production
Time
Output gap > 0 Output gap < 0
Contraction Expansion
Boom
CoolingRecession
RecoveryActualoutput
Forecasting
date
acyclical
evidence
cyclical
evidence
Coordinationist paradigm
Economic activity as cyclical phenomenon
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33KOOTHS | Business Cycle Forecasting: The Endurance Test for (Macro-) Economics
Macroeconomic production and product account
Source Use
Domestic production(at market prices) XMP
▪ Net taxes on products NTP(Taxes on products TP
– subsidies on products) SP
▪ Domestic production XBP
(at basic prices)
Intermediate consumption V
Final use
▪ Final domestic use
» Consumption C(private and public)
» Gross investment I(private and public)
▪ Exports ExImports Im
GD
P
GD
P
GDP = Gross Domestic Product at market prices
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34KOOTHS | Business Cycle Forecasting: The Endurance Test for (Macro-) Economics
Pitfalls of hydraulic macro accounting:“Final aggregate demand”
Intermediate consumption(production structure)
Source (not: supply) Use (not: demand)
Macroeconomic goods and services account(for period t)
Gross Domestic Product(domestic value added)
Imports
Intermediate consumption(production structure)
Final consumption(exclusive source of value)
Domestic capital formation
Exports
Capital formation abroad
IC + GDP + IM = IC + C + I + ExGDP + IM = C + I + ExGDP = C + I + Ex - Im
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35KOOTHS | Business Cycle Forecasting: The Endurance Test for (Macro-) Economics
Source and use of goods and services in GermanyData for 2016 in bn. Euro; Source: Statistisches Bundesamt, Fachserie 18, Reihe 1.4
Source Use
GDP
3144
GDP
3144
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36KOOTHS | Business Cycle Forecasting: The Endurance Test for (Macro-) Economics
Evaluating forecasts: A science in itself
Source: FAZ, 15 January 2016, p. 19
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37KOOTHS | Business Cycle Forecasting: The Endurance Test for (Macro-) Economics
Evaluating forecasts
▪ Criteria» Precision
» Rationality
» Turning point detection
▪ Problem» Forecasts that (do not) prove true can be wrong (right)
» Mind the forecasting date (data revisions!)
▪ Benchmarks» Naive forecasts
» AR-/ARIMA-models
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38KOOTHS | Business Cycle Forecasting: The Endurance Test for (Macro-) Economics
Measuring forecasting quality
▪ Precision» Mean squared/absolute errors
» Errors and variability
▪ Rationality» Un-biasedness: mean squared error = zero
» Efficiency
Week efficiency: Learning from errors
Strong efficiency: Making use of all relevant information
▪ Turning point detection» Predictive power
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39KOOTHS | Business Cycle Forecasting: The Endurance Test for (Macro-) Economics
Precision and forecasting dateForecasted change in GDP volume
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40KOOTHS | Business Cycle Forecasting: The Endurance Test for (Macro-) Economics
Quality, Un-biasedness and rationalityForecasted change in GDP volume
Quelle: U. Fritsche/J. Döpke (2006)
Probability to refuse the non-existence
of the respective property by mistake
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41KOOTHS | Business Cycle Forecasting: The Endurance Test for (Macro-) Economics
Turning point predictionForecasted change in GDP volume
Information content
1 = Flip of a coin
2 = Perfect forecast
Test for independenceLikelihood to be beat coin flipping only by chance
Quelle: U. Fritsche/J. Döpke (2006)
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42KOOTHS | Business Cycle Forecasting: The Endurance Test for (Macro-) Economics
Independent forecasting vs. fan-charts
▪ Germany:Five major (tax-financed) forecasting institutes
▪ Spectrum of independent analysis
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43KOOTHS | Business Cycle Forecasting: The Endurance Test for (Macro-) Economics
Conclusions
▪ Clear line between scientific forecasting and mumbo-jumbo
▪ Business cycle forecasting is more than a number» Many numbers
(full and consistent set of national accounts framework)
» Embedded in overall story line(data interpretation, not only number crunching)
▪ Forecasting supports economic reasoning and links theory to reality
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44KOOTHS | Business Cycle Forecasting: The Endurance Test for (Macro-) Economics
Outline
▪ The Forecasting Center
▪ Methodology of business cycle forecasts
▪ The Joint Economic Outlook for Germany (Autumn 2017)
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45KOOTHS | Business Cycle Forecasting: The Endurance Test for (Macro-) Economics
▪ Joint Forcast» DIW Berlin
» Ifo Munich
» IfW Kiel
» IWH Halle
» RWI Essen
▪ Bi-annual
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46KOOTHS | Business Cycle Forecasting: The Endurance Test for (Macro-) Economics
Weltwirtschaft im Aufschwung
▪ Expansion über Trend in USA, Japan, Euroraum, China
▪ Belebung auch in den Rohstoffländern
▪ Verwendungsseitig breit abgestützt (Investitionen)
▪ Konzertierte Expansion, aber nicht synchrone Konjunktur
▪ Allmähliche Verlangsamung der weltwirtschaftlichen Expansion
3,1 2,93,12,5
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47KOOTHS | Business Cycle Forecasting: The Endurance Test for (Macro-) Economics
Globale Expansion: Konzertiert, nicht synchronisiert
▪ Wirtschaftsräume in verschiedenenZyklusphasen» Einsetzende Erholung in
Brasilieren, Russland
» Konsolidierungsprozessein EWU-Krisenländern
» Spätphase in den USA
» KreditgetriebeneExpansion in China
Kräftiger Aufschwungin der Welt wenigwahrscheinlich
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48KOOTHS | Business Cycle Forecasting: The Endurance Test for (Macro-) Economics
Belebung des Welthandels großenteils konjunkturbedingt
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49KOOTHS | Business Cycle Forecasting: The Endurance Test for (Macro-) Economics
Aufwärtsrevision der Prognose trotz moderaterer US-Konjunktur
▪ Deutlich günstigere Einschätzung für den Euroraum
▪ Exportmärkte überproportional angehoben
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50KOOTHS | Business Cycle Forecasting: The Endurance Test for (Macro-) Economics
Inflation: Ende der Deflations-Hysterie
▪ Basiseffekte(Energierohstoffe) laufenaus
▪ Kernrate seit Jahren stabil
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51KOOTHS | Business Cycle Forecasting: The Endurance Test for (Macro-) Economics
Inflationsdynamik nach wie vor gering
▪ Inflation im Sommer energiepreisbedingt wieder etwas gesunken
▪ Kernraten moderat, insbesondere im Euroraum aber in der Tendenz aufwärts gerichtet
▪ Lohndynamik trotz vielfach niedriger ALQ weiter gering
▪ Elastisches Arbeitsangebot auch dank steigender Partizipationsquoten
-1
0
1
2
3
4
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Kernrate Gesamtindex
Prozent
Monatsdaten, nicht saisonbereinigt; Veränderung gegenüber dem Vorjahr.
HVPI im Euroraum
Quelle: Eurostat.
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52KOOTHS | Business Cycle Forecasting: The Endurance Test for (Macro-) Economics
Annahmen für die Prognose
▪ Geldpolitik wird langsamer gestrafft als im Frühjahr erwartet
» Weitere allmähliche Zinsanhebung in den USA
» Ausstieg der EZB aus dem Anleihekaufprogramm im Verlauf von 2018, Zinsanhebung erst 2019
▪ Finanzpolitik leicht expansiv
» Erhöhte Spielräume dank niedriger Zinsen und guter Konjunktur
» Hurrikanfolgen in den USA, abgemilderte Konsolidierung im VK
» Aber abklingende finanzpolitische Impulse in China
▪ Ruhige Entwicklung an den Rohstoffmärkten
» Ölpreis von 52 auf 54 Dollar (Brent)
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53KOOTHS | Business Cycle Forecasting: The Endurance Test for (Macro-) Economics
US-Konjunktur flacht langsam ab
▪ Aktuell kräftige konjunkturelle Grundtendenz
▪ Leichter Dämpfer im 3. Quartal durch Hurrikan Harvey
▪ Arbeitsmarktreserven werden langsam geringer
▪ Konsumneigung dürfte mit Zinsanstieg sinken
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54KOOTHS | Business Cycle Forecasting: The Endurance Test for (Macro-) Economics
Weitere Regionen
▪ China: Allmähliche Verlangsamung
» Gegenwärtiges Expansionstempo scheint nicht nachhaltig zu sein
» Stärkerer Fokus der Regierung auf Konsolidierung und Eindämmung von Kapitalflucht erwartet
» Abschwächung auf 6 % in 2019, Risiko einer Krise bleibt
▪ Großbritannien: Brexit dämpft
» Abkühlung der Konsumkonjunktur (Realeinkommen)
» Unsicherheit bremst Investitionen
» Auswirkung geringerer Zuwanderung auf Potenzialwachstum?
▪ Mittel- und Osteuropa expandiert sehr kräftig
» Aktuell hohe Kaufkraftzuwächse und Investitionsschub
» Anziehende Inflation und zunehmende Engpässe am Arbeitsmarkt führen zu allmählicher Verlangsamung im Prognosezeitraum
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55KOOTHS | Business Cycle Forecasting: The Endurance Test for (Macro-) Economics
Weiter lebhafte Expansion im Euroraum
▪ Viel Schwung im Jahr 2017
▪ Konjunktur ist in allen Ländern aufwärts gerichtet
▪ Gesamtwirtschaftliche Kapazitätsauslastung steigt über den gesamten Prognosezeitraum
▪ Arbeitslosigkeit sinkt weiter deutlich
▪ Inflation moderat, aber mit steigender Tendenz
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56KOOTHS | Business Cycle Forecasting: The Endurance Test for (Macro-) Economics
Wie nachhaltig ist der Aufschwung im Euroraum?
▪ Expansion verwendungsseitig breit abgestützt
▪ Arbeitslosigkeit auch strukturell rückläufig
▪ Verschuldung im privaten Sektor stabil bis abnehmend
▪ Neuverschuldung der öffentlichen Haushalte stark gesunken, Schuldenstand weiter hoch
▪ Bankensektor mit erhöhter Widerstandskraft, aber zum Teil noch Schwachstellen (NPL, Staatsanleihebestände)
▪ Konjunkturrisiko durch Normalisierung der Geldpolitik erscheint begrenzt
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57KOOTHS | Business Cycle Forecasting: The Endurance Test for (Macro-) Economics
Rahmenbedingungen/Annahmen
▪ Auslandsmärkte kräftiger» 2017: +2,7 Prozent
» 2018: +2,5 Prozent
» 2019: +2,3 Prozent
▪ Finanzierungsbedingungen bleiben äußerst günstig (HRS)» 2017: 0,0 Prozent
» 2018: 0,0 Prozent (Auslaufen des QE-Ankäufe)
» 2019: 0,1 Prozent (Langfristzins, Bundesanleihen: 1 Prozent)
▪ Finanzpolitik gemäß Status quo nahezu neutral (BIP-Impuls)» 2017: +0,4 Prozent
» 2018: +0,2 Prozent
» 2019: +0,1 Prozent
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58KOOTHS | Business Cycle Forecasting: The Endurance Test for (Macro-) Economics
Monetäre Impulse am aktuellen Rand
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59KOOTHS | Business Cycle Forecasting: The Endurance Test for (Macro-) Economics
Aufschwung setzt sich fort
▪ Gestreckter Aufschwung geht in fünftes Jahr(„Kaugummikonjunktur“)
▪ Diagnose (2017)» Wirtschaftsleistung etwas
über Potenzial
» Anzeichen für partielle Engpässe (Arbeitsmarkt, Bau)
▪ Auslastung steigt
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
1900
2100
2300
2500
2700
2900
3100
1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018
Produktionslücke(rechte Skala)
Bruttoinlandsprodukt Potenzial
Jahresdaten.Bruttoinlandsprodukt, Potential: preisbereinigt (verk. Volumina, Referenzjahr 20010).
Mrd. Euro Prozent
Potential und Produktion
Pro
gn
ose
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60KOOTHS | Business Cycle Forecasting: The Endurance Test for (Macro-) Economics
Expansionstempo verlangsamt sich leicht
▪ Revision» 2017: +0,4 Prozentpunkte
» 2018: +0,2 Prozentpunkte
▪ Kalenderbereinigt» 2017: +2,2 Prozent
» 2018: +2,1 Prozent
» 2019: +1,8 Prozent
▪ 2017-H2» Industrieproduktion
» Geschäftsklima
» Beschäftigungsdynamik
-0,6
-0,4
-0,2
0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1,0
1,2
106
108
110
112
114
116
118
120
I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Veränderung (rechte Skala) Niveau
Bruttoinlandsprodukt
Prozent
1,7 1,9 1,9 2,0 1,8
2010 = 100
Quartalsdaten, preis-, kalender- und saisonbereinigt;Veränderung gegenüber dem Vorquartal, Jahresrate (gerahmt).
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61KOOTHS | Business Cycle Forecasting: The Endurance Test for (Macro-) Economics
Aufschwung gewinnt an Breite
▪ Außenhandel nur rechnerisch neutral» Kräftigeres Umfeld
» Induzierte Importe
▪ Investitionstätigkeit» Finanzierungsbedingungen
» Erweiterungsmotiv
» Wohnungsbau
▪ Konsum etwas schwächer» Privat: Auslaufende
Ölpreiseffekte
» Staat: Wegfall des Impulses für Flüchtlingsversorgung
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62KOOTHS | Business Cycle Forecasting: The Endurance Test for (Macro-) Economics
Ausfuhren weiter kräftiger
▪ Verbesserte Auftragslage (Eingang, Bestände)
▪ Klimaaufhellung in den Absatzmärkten, Erholung im Euroraum
▪ Exporterwartungen außergewöhnlich hoch
▪ Terms of Trade» 2017: –0,8 Prozent
» 2018: +0,7 Prozent
» 2019: +0,3 Prozent-1,0
0,0
1,0
2,0
3,0
4,0
120
125
130
135
140
145
150
I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Veränderung (rechte Skala) Niveau
Exporte
Prozent
5,2 2,6 3,7 4,4 4,3
2010 = 100
Quartalsdaten, preis-, kalender- und saisonbereinigt;Veränderung gegenüber dem Vorquartal, Jahresrate (gerahmt).
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63KOOTHS | Business Cycle Forecasting: The Endurance Test for (Macro-) Economics
Kräftige Expansion der Ausrüstungsinvestitionen
▪ Weltwirtschaftliche Impulse
▪ Rekordstimmung bei Investitionsgüterherstellern
▪ Erhöhte Kapazitätsauslastung
▪ Extrem günstige Finanzierungsbedingungen
▪ Q3: Schwache Produktion, stagnierende Bestellungen im Sommer
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
105
110
115
120
125
130
I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Veränderung (rechte Skala) Niveau
Ausrüstungsinvestitionen
Prozent
3,9 2,2 1,8 4,3 3,5
2010 = 100
Quartalsdaten, preis -, kalender- und saisonbereinigt;Veränderung gegenüber dem Vorquartal, Jahresrate (gerahmt).
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64KOOTHS | Business Cycle Forecasting: The Endurance Test for (Macro-) Economics
Bauwirtschaft an der Kapazitätsgrenze
▪ Wohnungsbau als Haupttreiber» Finanzierungsbedingungen
» Arbeitsmarktlage
» Bedarf (Zuzug)
▪ Rekordauslastung, hohe Auftragsreichweite und steigender Bauüberhang
▪ Deutlicher Preisauftrieb
▪ Q3: Verhaltene Produktionszahlen (Juli)
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
105
110
115
120
125
I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Veränderung (rechte Skala) Niveau
Bauinvestitionen
Prozent
-1,4 2,7 4,1 2,8 2,6
2010 = 100
Quartalsdaten, preis-, kalender- und saisonbereinigt;Veränderung gegenüber dem Vorquartal, Jahresrate (gerahmt).
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65KOOTHS | Business Cycle Forecasting: The Endurance Test for (Macro-) Economics
Dynamik beim privater Konsum bleibt hoch
▪ H1: Kaufkraftgewinne (Ölpreis, Aufwertung)
▪ Löhne: Brutto (Netto)» 2017: +4,2 (+4,0) Prozent
» 2018: +4,2 (+4,1) Prozent
» 2019: +4,2 (+3,8) Prozent
▪ Monetäre Sozialleistungen» 2017: +3,9 Prozent
» 2018: +2,8 Prozent
» 2019: +3,2 Prozent
▪ Preisauftrieb etwas stärker-0,8
-0,6
-0,4
-0,2
0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1,0
1,2
104
106
108
110
112
114
116
I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Veränderung (rechte Skala) Niveau
Private Konsumausgaben
Prozent
1,7 2,1 1,8 1,7 1,5
2010 = 100
Quartalsdaten, preis-, kalender- und saisonbereinigt;Veränderung gegenüber dem Vorquartal, Jahresrate (gerahmt).
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66KOOTHS | Business Cycle Forecasting: The Endurance Test for (Macro-) Economics
Preisauftrieb nimmt zu
▪ Auslaufen der Ölpreiseffekte
▪ Kapazitätsauslastung erhöht Preisdruck
▪ Mieten ziehen verstärkt an
-2,0
-1,5
-1,0
-0,5
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
104
106
108
110
112
114
116
I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Veränderung (rechte Skala) Niveau
Verbraucherpreise
Prozent
0,2 0,5 1,7 1,7 1,8
2010 = 100
Quartalsdaten, saisonbereinigt;Veränderung gegenüber dem Vorquartal, Jahresrate (gerahmt).
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67KOOTHS | Business Cycle Forecasting: The Endurance Test for (Macro-) Economics
Beschäftigungsaufbau nimmt ab, Lohndynamik zu
▪ Knappheiten nehmen zu» Höhere Vakanzzeiten
» Offene Stellen zu Arbeitslosen auf Langzeithoch
▪ Ifo Beschäftigungsbarometer
▪ Zuwanderung/steigende Partizipation überkompen-sieren (noch) Alterungseffekte
▪ Verdienste: Effektiv (Tarif)» 2017: +2,5 (+2,1) Prozent
» 2018: +2,9 (+2,4) Prozent
» 2019: +3,2 (+2,5) Prozent
▪ Nachholende Kaufkraftsicherung
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
42
43
43
44
44
45
45
46
46
I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Veränderung (rechte Skala) Niveau
Erwerbstätige
Tsd.
398 569 647 483 388
Mill.
Quartalsdaten, saisonbereinigt;Veränderung gegenüber dem Vorquartal, Jahresrate (gerahmt).
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68KOOTHS | Business Cycle Forecasting: The Endurance Test for (Macro-) Economics
Arbeitsmarktbilanz
Jahresdurchschnitte in 1000 Personen
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69KOOTHS | Business Cycle Forecasting: The Endurance Test for (Macro-) Economics
Staat mit strukturellen Budgetüberschüssen
In Milliarden Euro
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70KOOTHS | Business Cycle Forecasting: The Endurance Test for (Macro-) Economics
Demografischer Wandel und Arbeitsmarktpartizipation
Partizipationsquoten in Prozent
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71KOOTHS | Business Cycle Forecasting: The Endurance Test for (Macro-) Economics
MODEM-Neuerung: Kohortenmodell als Basis für den Trend der Partizipationsquote
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72KOOTHS | Business Cycle Forecasting: The Endurance Test for (Macro-) Economics
Wachstumsbeiträge zum Produktionspotenzial
Zwischenhoch
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73KOOTHS | Business Cycle Forecasting: The Endurance Test for (Macro-) Economics
Wachstumsbeiträge zum Arbeitspotenzial:Demografischer Wandel und ausgereizte Reserven
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74KOOTHS | Business Cycle Forecasting: The Endurance Test for (Macro-) Economics
Produktionslücken im Vergleich
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75KOOTHS | Business Cycle Forecasting: The Endurance Test for (Macro-) Economics
IfW Projektion: Mittelfristige Überhitzungsgefahren
▪ Keine technische Annahme, sondern Musterprognose
▪ Expansives monetäres Umfeld
▪ (Mindestens) neutrale Ausrichtung der Finanzpolitik
▪ Erhöhtes Risiko rezessiver Korrekturen
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
1900
2100
2300
2500
2700
2900
3100
1991 1997 2003 2009 2015 2021
Output gap (rhs) GDP Potential output
Annual data; GDP, Potential output: price adjusted (chain index volumes, 2005=100).
Bn. Euro Percent
Production and potential output
forecast
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76KOOTHS | Business Cycle Forecasting: The Endurance Test for (Macro-) Economics
Economic growth and the business cycle: Potential output vs. capacity utilization
production
time
Capacity utilization > normal Capacity utilization < normal
Capacity utilization
(Contraction)
Capacity utilization
(Expansion)
Boom
CoolingRecession
Recovery
actual
production
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77KOOTHS | Business Cycle Forecasting: The Endurance Test for (Macro-) Economics
@kielinstitute
www.ifw-kiel.de
Prof. Dr. Stefan KoothsHead of Forecasting
T (Kiel) +49 431 8814-579T (Berlin) +49 30 2067-9664
Time for Q&A